Thoughts on the H-Bomb Decision, Oppenheimer’s Loyalty/Security Hearing, and Vacating of the AEC Decision
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Abstract Several decades ago a dramatic leap forward occurred in the development and application of statistical methods for modeling radiation risk at the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF). Poisson regression analysis for grouped person-year cohort data and the linear excess relative risk model were introduced, and subsequently a devoted software system, Epicure® (https://www.hirosoft.com), was developed by researchers at RERF and at the U.S. National Cancer Institute. Numerous advancements in understanding radiation effects on humans were made possible with these methods, which are still the state-of-the-art for risk assessment at RERF and have remained part of the standard toolbox for radiation—and other environmental—epidemiological studies worldwide. Nevertheless, as our understanding of radiation risk has increased, so have the breadth and depth of questions that require answers based on emerging data that are not amenable to these conventional methods. This overview briefly recounts the conventional methods and then describes our recent diversification into the use or development of new statistical approaches to meet the challenges of burgeoning biological data and emerging mechanistic information. We briefly discuss the development and application of new methods, current and planned, that are part of the RERF Statistics Department’s role in supporting institution-wide research, especially in our collaborations involving the Life Span Study, Adult Health Study, and First-generation Offspring Clinical Study. Some approaches to modeling and assessing radiation risk with newer methods mentioned herein have already been published, while some are still in development or are only beginning at the proposal stage.
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Seventy-five years after the end of World War II, atomic spies continue to captivate and revolt the American public. Theodore "Ted" Hall, Klaus Fuchs, and David Greenglass all committed espionage at Los Alamos during the war. It has also been conjectured that there was an unidentified spy known only by the code-name PERSEUS, but there is a growing consensus among scholars that PERSEUS never existed. However, in September 2019, historians Harvey Klehr and John Earl Haynes unmasked a fourth Los Alamos spy code-named GODSEND. His name: Oscar Seborer. When the New York Times reported the story of Seborer's treachery in November 2019, almost nothing was known about his work at the Laboratory. However, recently discovered documents in the National Security Research Center (NSRC) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) offer some clues as to what GODSEND may have stolen for Stalin.
Seventy-five years later, the Trinity test of July 16, 1945 is still rightly remembered as a monumental scientific achievement. The test has a multifaceted legacy representing incredible discovery, unparalleled hope and unprecedented peril. The weapons designed and tested at wartime Los Alamos were not intended to deter, but to destroy: On August 6, 1945, the world’s first weaponized nuclear device was used for that very purpose. Little Boy, a gun-assembled enriched uranium weapon, detonated over Hiroshima that morning destroying several square miles of the city and killing tens of thousands. Three days later, Fat Man, an imploding plutonium weapon, destroyed Nagasaki. On August 14, an armistice was declared and a few weeks later World War II came to an official end. We’ve all heard these historical facts before, but was it really that simple? Nuclear strike + nuclear strike = unconditional surrender? Bringing World War II to an end was an arduous, complex, and very tenuous undertaking with important historical nuances to consider.
Little Boy and Fat Man. Two types of nuclear weapons were developed at the Los Alamos wartime lab in an effort to help end World War II. Both would be released above Japan just days apart in August 1945, and just weeks after the Trinity test in the New Mexico desert. These weapons were, however, as different as their monikers imply. Little Boy was a uranium, gun-type weapon, whereas Fat Man was a plutonium, implosion-style weapon. Two types were needed because there was only enough uranium for one gun-type weapon and the U.S. government knew it would need to make more than one weapon. Also, the unattainable challenges of a plutonium gun-type design prompted the shift to the implosion-style weapon.
This collection of images was curated by the National Security Research Center in recognition of the 70 th anniversary of the nuclear test codenamed “Mike” of Operation Ivy. The NSRC is the Lab’s classified library, which also houses unclassified artifacts from the Lab’s history. The NSRC has archived photos of nuclear tests from over the years to preserve our history.
Analysis of data concerning radiation belt formed by a high-altitude nuclear explosion on july 9, 1962
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