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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of D-T Neutron Source Flux by SelfNeutron Activation Analysis with a LaBr3 Detector

Conclusions: • Decay of 78Br produced from the 79Br(n,2n) reaction in LaBr3 is present in the spectrum plotted in the time domain. • The neutron production rate reconstructed from preliminary LaBr3 estimate is smaller than the generator output. • Generator characterization may become more routine if a simple and robust method is made available for applications. Ongoing work: • Implementing bootstrapping to improve error estimates. • Examining threshold and edge effects of LaBr3

SMITH, MURRY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Incorporating uncertainty for enhanced leaderboard scoring and ranking in data competitions

Data competitions have become a popular and cost-effective approach for crowdsourcing versatile solutions from diverse expertise. Current practice relies on the simple leaderboard scoring based on a given set of competition data for ranking competitors and distributing the prize. However, a disadvantage of this practice in many competitions is that a slight difference in the scores due to the natural variability of the observed data could result in a much larger difference in the prize amounts. In this article, we propose a new strategy to quantify the uncertainty in the rankings and scores from using different data sets that share common characteristics with the provided competition data. By using a bootstrap approach to generate many comparable data sets, the new method has four advantages over current practice. Furthermore, during the competition, it provides a mechanism for competitors to get feedback about the uncertainty in their relative ranking. After the competition, it allows the host to gain a deeper understanding of the algorithm performance and their robustness across representative data sets. It also offers a transparent mechanism for prize distribution to reward the competitors more fairly with superior and robust performance. Finally, it has the additional advantage of being able to explore what results might have looked like if competition goals evolved from their original choices. The implementation of the strategy is illustrated with a real data competition hosted by Topcoder on urban radiation search.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bootstrapping mixed correlators in three-dimensional cubic theories II

Conformal field theories (CFTs) with cubic global symmetry in 3D are relevant in a variety of condensed matter systems and have been studied extensively with the use of perturbative methods like the \varepsilon ε expansion. In an earlier work, we used the nonperturbative numerical conformal bootstrap to provide evidence for the existence of a previously unknown 3D CFT with cubic symmetry, dubbed “Platonic CFT”. In this work, we make further use of the numerical conformal bootstrap to perform a three-dimensional scan in the space of scaling dimensions of three low-lying operators. We find a three-dimensional isolated allowed region in parameter space, which includes both the 3D (decoupled) Ising model and the Platonic CFT. The essential assumptions on the spectrum of operators used to provide the isolated allowed region include the existence of a stress-energy tensor and the irrelevance of certain operators (in the renormalization group sense).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Algebraic Multigrid with Optimal Interpolation and Adaptive Smoothers (Final Report)

The project team continued with work on developing new bootstrap AMG techniques for solving symmetric and non-symmetric PDE systems. The focus of this work is to derive more reliable measures of the quality of the coarse space set than the convergence rate of the standard F-relaxation form of CR and a more robust form of interpolation than the so-called ideal form. We have successfully derived a sharp variant of CR that gives the precise convergence rate of the two-grid method using this optimal interpolation and, in addition, we derived a new Generalized Bootstrap AMG setup algorithm that uses as its main tool a multilevel eigensolver for the generalized eigenvalue problem involving the system matrix and the symmetrized smoother. In addition, the approach allows for general block smoothers with overlap. We have applied the method to scalar diffusion problems, linear elasticity, and Maxwell’s and the method shows marked improvements over existing AMG methods for these problems. In addition, the team worked with CASC members on new forms of ideal AMG interpolation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic learning in the electronically grand-canonical ensemble

Abstract A strategy is presented for the machine-learning emulation of electronic structure calculations carried out in the electronically grand-canonical ensemble. The approach relies upon a dual-learning scheme, where both the system charge and the system energy are predicted for each image. The scheme is shown to be capable of emulating basic electrochemical reactions at a range of potentials, and coupling it with a bootstrap-ensemble approach gives reasonable estimates of the prediction uncertainty. The method is also demonstrated to accelerate saddle-point searches, and to extrapolate to systems with one to five water layers. We anticipate that this method will allow for larger length- and time-scale simulations necessary for electrochemical simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification of Life Models for Li-Ion Batteries Using Penalized Regression and Bilevel Optimization

Reduced-order physics-based life models are extremely useful for rapidly predicting battery state-of-health and for simulating battery lifetime in arbitrary aging conditions. However, identification of well-parameterized models is difficult. This is because, for maximum usefulness in predicting lifetime under a variety of conditions, aging test data exhibits many degradation mechanisms, which all need to be accurately modeled. However, because aging tests are time-consuming and expensive, especially for large-format batteries, a minimum of tests are conducted while probing many stress factors. Building a well-parameterized model is then very challenging: an under-parameterized model will neglect critical degradation modes, and an over-parameterized model will extrapolate poorly to new testing conditions. To complicate this matter, the functional form of the model for any individual degradation rate can be very difficult to identify. In this work, the statistical tools of penalized regression and bilevel optimization are used to help identify both the functional forms of and optimize the parameters of reduced-order life models, accelerating identification of robust models. Model robustness is demonstrated through traditional statistics methods of cross-validation and sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification through bootstrap resampling and Monte-Carlo simulation, and simulation of real-world use cases.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conservative Estimation of Tail Probabilities from Limited Sample Data

Several sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods are compared for conservative but not overly conservative estimation of small tail probabilities involving responses that lay beyond specified thresholds in the tails of probability distributions. Sixteen very differently shaped distributions (or probability density functions, PDFs) and tail probability magnitudes ranging from 10 -5 to 10 -1 are considered in order for the study to be relevant to a wide range of risk analysis and quantification of margins and uncertainty (QMU) problems. The emphasis of the study is on limited data regimes ranging from N = 2 to 20 samples, reflective of most experimental and some expensive computational situations. Relatively simple sparse-sample UQ methods tested for this regime involve statistical tolerance interval "Equivalent Normal and related "Ensemble of Normals" and "Superdistribution (SD) approaches. (The independently derived SD is effectively equivalent to the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution given the assumptions of the derivation.) The performance of the methods was generally improved for N ≥ 5 samples with a generalized Jackknife resampling technique, which determines a tail probability estimate by averaging estimates from smaller sub-samples. Several quantitative metrics for method conservatism and accuracy of tail probability estimation are used to assess and rank the methods' performance over many random trials for each test PDF and probability magnitude. A variant of Bootstrap resampling was also tried, but did not significantly improve tail probability estimates in most cases. Detailed results are presented from over 100-million tests over the above factors that provide useful granular information on which methods or combination of methods perform best in various areas of the factor space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The geometry of the modular bootstrap

Abstract We explore the geometry behind the modular bootstrap and its image in the space of Taylor coefficients of the torus partition function. In the first part, we identify the geometry as an intersection of planes with the convex hull of moment curves onR + ⊗ℤ, with boundaries characterized by the total positivity of generalized Hankel matrices. We phrase the Hankel constraints as a semi-definite program, which has several advantages, such as the validity of bounds irrespective of spin truncation. We derive bounds on the gap, twist-gap, and the space of Taylor coefficients themselves. We find that if the gap is above$$ {\Delta }_{\textrm{gap}}^{\ast } $$ ∆ gap ∗ , where$$ \frac{c-1}{12}<{\Delta}_{\textrm{gap}}^{\ast }<\frac{c}{12} $$ c − 1 12 < Δ gap ∗ < c 12 , all coefficients become bounded on both sides and kinks develop in the space. In the second part, we propose an analytic method of imposing the integrality condition for the degeneracy number in the spinless bootstrap, which leads to a non-convex geometry. We find that even at very low derivative order this condition rules out regions otherwise allowed by bootstraps at high derivative order.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Accuracy Limitations of Quantifying Methane Emissions Using Other Test Method 33A

Researchers have utilized Other Test Method (OTM) 33A to quantify methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure. Historically, errors have been reported based on a population of measurements compared to known controlled releases of methane. These errors have been reported as 2σ errors of ±70%. However, little research has been performed on the minimum attainable uncertainty of any one measurement. We present two methods of uncertainty estimation. The first was the measurement uncertainty of the state-of-the-art equipment, which was determined to be ±3.8% of the estimate. This was determined from bootstrapped measurements compared to controlled releases. The second approach of uncertainty estimation was a modified Hollinger and Richardson (H&R) method which was developed for quantifying the uncertainty of eddy covariance measurements. Using a modified version of this method applied to OTM 33A measurements, it was determined that uncertainty of any given measurement was ±17%. Combining measurement uncertainty with that of stochasticity produced a total minimum uncertainty of 17.4%. Due to the current nature of stationary single-sensor measurements and the stochasticity of atmospheric data, such uncertainties will always be present. This is critical in understanding the transport of methane emissions and indirect measurements obtained from the natural gas industry.

Heltzel, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2026

Third moments of nucleon unpolarized, polarized, and transversity parton distribution functions from physical-point lattice QCD

Using forward matrix elements of local leading-twist operators, we present a determination of the isovector third Mellin moments ⟨𝑥 2 ⟩ of nucleon unpolarized, polarized, and transversity parton distribution functions. Two lattice QCD ensembles at the physical pion mass are used, which were generated using a tree-level Symanzik-improved gauge action and 2+1 flavor tree-level improved Wilson Clover fermions coupling via 2-level HEX-smearing. Leveraging a wide set of operators, two extraction methods for the matrix elements, and the automatic inclusion of model uncertainties via bootstrapped model averages, we extract values of the third Mellin moments. Furthermore, this is the first direct calculation of these observables performed at the physical pion mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting potential adverse events using safety data from marketed drugs

Abstract Background While clinical trials are considered the gold standard for detecting adverse events, often these trials are not sufficiently powered to detect difficult to observe adverse events. We developed a preliminary approach to predict 135 adverse events using post-market safety data from marketed drugs. Adverse event information available from FDA product labels and scientific literature for drugs that have the same activity at one or more of the same targets, structural and target similarities, and the duration of post market experience were used as features for a classifier algorithm. The proposed method was studied using 54 drugs and a probabilistic approach of performance evaluation using bootstrapping with 10,000 iterations. Results Out of 135 adverse events, 53 had high probability of having high positive predictive value. Cross validation showed that 32% of the model-predicted safety label changes occurred within four to nine years of approval (median: six years). Conclusions This approach predicts 53 serious adverse events with high positive predictive values where well-characterized target-event relationships exist. Adverse events with well-defined target-event associations were better predicted compared to adverse events that may be idiosyncratic or related to secondary target effects that were poorly captured. Further enhancement of this model with additional features, such as target prediction and drug binding data, may increase accuracy.

Daluwatte, Chathuri↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conformal bootstrap deformations

We explore the space of extremal functionals in the conformal bootstrap. By recasting the bootstrap problem as a set of non-linear equations parameterized by the CFT data, we find an efficient algorithm for converging to the extremal solution corresponding to the boundary of allowed regions in the parameter space of CFTs. Furthermore, by deforming these solutions, we demonstrate that certain solutions corresponding to known theories are continuously connected. Employing these methods, we will explore the space of non-unitary CFTs in the context of modular as well as correlation function bootstrap. In two dimensions, we show that the extremal solution corresponding to the Ising model is connected to that of the Yang-Lee minimal model. By deforming this solution to three dimensions, we provide evidence that the CFT data obtained in this way is compatible with the E-expansion for a non-unitary theory

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tracking discontinuities in parameter space

We develop a geometric framework in Feynman-parameter space to determine constraints on the sequential discontinuities of Feynman integrals. Our method is based on tracking the deformation of the integration contour as external kinematics are analytically continued. This procedure imposes powerful constraints on the analytic structure of Feynman integrals, providing crucial inputs for their bootstrap. We demonstrate the usefulness of this framework by applying it to integrals in dimensional regularization, with higher propagator powers, and to examples with non-uniform transcendental weight. The method is illustrated with several one- and two-loop calculations.

Differential and Algebraic Geometry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Accurate Battery Lifetime Models with Uncertainty

Reduced-order battery lifetime models, which consist of algebraic expressions for various aging modes, are widely utilized for extrapolating degradation trends from accelerated aging tests to real-world aging scenarios. Identifying models with high accuracy and low uncertainty is crucial for ensuring that model extrapolations are believable, however, it is difficult to compose expressions that accurately predict multivariate data trends; a review of cycling degradation models from literature reveals a wide variety of functional relationships. Here, a machine-learning assisted model identification method is utilized to fit degradation in a stand-out LFP-Gr aging data set, with uncertainty quantified by bootstrap resampling. The model identified in this work results in approximately half the mean absolute error of a human expert model. Models are validated by converting to a state-equation form and comparing predictions against cells aging under varying loads. Parameter uncertainty is carried forward into an energy storage system simulation to estimate the impact of aging model uncertainty on system lifetime. The new model identification method used here reduces life-prediction uncertainty by more than a factor of three (86% ± 5% relative capacity at 10 years for human-expert model, 88.5% ± 1.5% for machine-learning assisted model), empowering more confident estimates of energy storage system lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carving out OPE space and precise O(2) model critical exponents

We develop new tools for isolating CFTs using the numerical bootstrap. A “cutting surface” algorithm for scanning OPE coefficients makes it possible to find islands in high-dimensional spaces. Together with recent progress in large-scale semidefinite programming, this enables bootstrap studies of much larger systems of correlation functions than was previously practical. We apply these methods to correlation functions of charge-0, 1, and 2 scalars in the 3d O(2) model, computing new precise values for scaling dimensions and OPE coefficients in this theory. Our new determinations of scaling dimensions are consistent with and improve upon existing Monte Carlo simulations, sharpening the existing decades-old 8σ discrepancy between theory and experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bootstrap and amplitudes: a hike in the landscape of quantum field theory

This article is an introduction to two currently very active research programs, the Conformal Bootstrap and Scattering Amplitudes. Rather than attempting full surveys, the emphasis is on common ideas and methods shared by these two seemingly very different programs. In both fields, mathematical and physical constraints are placed directly on the physical observables in order to explore the landscape of possible consistent quantum field theories. We give explicit examples from both programs: the reader can expect to encounter boiling water, ferromagnets, pion scattering, and emergent symmetries on this journey into the landscape of local relativistic quantum field theories. Here, the first part is written for a general physics audience. The second part includes further details, including a new on-shell bottom-up reconstruction of the CP 1 model with the Fubini-Study metric arising from re-summation of the n-point interaction terms derived from amplitudes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗