Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “bottom-up estimate”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1988

Overview of SDCM - The Spacecraft Design and Cost Model

The Spacecraft Design and Cost Model (SDCM) is a computer-aided design and analysis tool for synthesizing spacecraft configurations, integrating their subsystems, and generating information concerning on-orbit servicing and costs. SDCM uses a bottom-up method in which the cost and performance parameters for subsystem components are first calculated; the model then sums the contributions from individual components in order to obtain an estimate of sizes and costs for each candidate configuration within a selected spacecraft system. An optimum spacraft configuration can then be selected.

Ferebee, Melvin J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Intercomparison of MODIS AQUA and VIIRS I-Band Fires and Emissions in an Agricultural Landscape - Implications for Air Pollution Research

Quantifying emissions from crop residue burning is crucial as it is a significant source of air pollution. In this study, we first compared the fire products from two different sensors, the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) 375 m active fire product (VNP14IMG) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1 km fire product (MCD14ML) in an agricultural landscape, Punjab, India. We then performed an intercomparison of three different approaches for estimating total particulate matter (TPM) emissions which includes the fire radiative power (FRP) based approach using VIIRS and MODIS data, the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) burnt area emissions and a bottom-up emissions approach involving agricultural census data. Results revealed that VIIRS detected fires were higher by a factor of 4.8 compared to MODIS Aqua and Terra sensors. Further, VIIRS detected fires were higher by a factor of 6.5 than Aqua. The mean monthly MODIS Aqua FRP was found to be higher than the VIIRS FRP; however, the sum of FRP from VIIRS was higher than MODIS data due to the large number of fires detected by the VIIRS. Besides, the VIIRS sum of FRP was 2.5 times more than the MODIS sum of FRP. MODIS and VIIRS monthly FRP data were found to be strongly correlated (r2 = 0.98). The bottom-up approach suggested TPM emissions in the range of 88.19-91.19 Gg compared to 42.0-61.71 Gg, 42.59-58.75 Gg and 93.98-111.72 Gg using the GFED, MODIS FRP, and VIIRS FRP based approaches, respectively. Of the different approaches, VIIRS FRP TPM emissions were highest. Since VIIRS data are only available since 2012 compared to MODIS Aqua data which have been available since May 2002, a prediction model combining MODIS and VIIRS FRP was derived to obtain potential TPM emissions from 2003-2016. The results suggested a range of 2.56-63.66 (Gg) TPM emissions per month, with the highest crop residue emissions during November of each year. Our results on TPM emissions for seasonality matched the ground-based data from the literature. As a mitigation option, stringent policy measures are recommended to curtail agricultural residue burning in the study area.

Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Space-Based Detection of Missing Sulfur Dioxide Sources of Global Air Pollution

Sulfur dioxide is designated a criteria air contaminant (or equivalent) by virtually all developed nations. When released into the atmosphere, sulfur dioxide forms sulfuric acid and fine particulate matter, secondary pollutants that have significant adverse effects on human health, the environment and the economy. The conventional, bottom-up emissions inventories used to assess impacts, however, are often incomplete or outdated, particularly for developing nations that lack comprehensive emission reporting requirements and infrastructure. Here we present a satellite-based, global emission inventory for SO2 that is derived through a simultaneous detection, mapping and emission-quantifying procedure, and thereby independent of conventional information sources. We find that of the 500 or so large sources in our inventory, nearly 40 are not captured in leading conventional inventories. These missing sources are scattered throughout the developing world-over a third are clustered around the Persian Gulf-and add up to 7 to 14 Tg of SO2 yr(exp -1), or roughly 6-12% of the global anthropogenic source. Our estimates of national total emissions are generally in line with conventional numbers, but for some regions, and for SO2 emissions from volcanoes, discrepancies can be as large as a factor of three or more. We anticipate that our inventory will help eliminate gaps in bottom-up inventories, independent of geopolitical borders and source types.

OMI↗
NASA NTRS2019

Enhanced Capabilities of TROPOMI NO2: Estimating NOX from North American Cities and Power Plants

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) is used to derive top-down NOXemissions for twolarge power plants and three megacities in North America. Wefirst re-process the vertical column NO2with an improved airmass factor to correct for a known systematic low bias in the operational retrieval near urban centers. For the two power plants,top-down NOXemissions agree to within 10% of the emissions reported by the power plants. We then derive top-down NOXemissions rates for New York City, Chicago, and Toronto, and compare them to projected bottom-up emissions inventories. Inthis analysis of 2018 NOXemissions, wefind a +22% overestimate for New York City, a−21% underestimate in Toronto, andgood agreement in Chicago in the projected bottom-up inventories when compared to the top-down emissions. Top-downNOXemissions also capture intraseasonal variability, such as the weekday versus weekend effect (emissions are +45% larger onweekdays versus weekends in Chicago). Finally, we demonstrate the enhanced capabilities of TROPOMI, which allow us toderive a NOXemissions rate for Chicago using a single overpass on July 7, 2018. The large signal-to-noise ratio of TROPOMI iswell-suited for estimating NOXemissions from relatively small sources and for sub-seasonal timeframes.

TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)↗
NASA NTRS1989

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Progress in Atmospheric Carbon Monitoring Using NASA's GEOS Model and Data from the OCO and GOSAT Missions

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces a variety of carbon products based the synthesis of satellite remote sensing data and outputs of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This includes bottom-up surface fluxes due to fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, terrestrial biospheric exchange, and ocean exchangeconstrained by measurements of nighttime lights, fire radiative power, normalized difference vegetation index, and ocean color. These fluxes are the basis of top-down estimates of carbon concentrations and fluxes. In particular, the GMAO system processes retrievals of column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from GOSAT and OCO-2 to produce a high-resolution, long-term global analysis of CO2 in three dimensions every 6 hours. Here, we discuss the potential applications of such products for satellite intercomparison and evaluation against independent, non-coincident data. We also highlight the ability to provide monthly global atmospheric growth rates inferred from the assimilated CO2 concentration product. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing such products including bias correction and the estimation and analysis of model transport errors.

Weir, B.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Half of global methane emissions come from highly variable aquatic ecosystem sources

Atmospheric methane is a potent greenhouse gas that plays a major role in controlling the Earth’s climate. The causes of the renewed increase of methane concentration since 2007 are uncertain given the multiple sources and complex biogeochemistry. Here, we present a metadata analysis of methane fluxes from all major natural, impacted and human-made aquatic ecosystems. Our revised bottom-up global aquatic methane emissions combine diffusive, ebullitive and/or plant-mediated fluxes from 15 aquatic ecosystems. We emphasize the high variability of methane fluxes within and between aquatic ecosystems and a positively skewed distribution of empirical data, making global estimates sensitive to statistical assumptions and sampling design. We find aquatic ecosystems contribute (median) 41% or (mean) 53% of total global methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. We show that methane emissions increase from natural to impacted aquatic ecosystems and from coastal to freshwater ecosystems. We argue that aquatic emissions will probably increase due to urbanization, eutrophication and positive climate feedbacks and suggest changes in land-use management as potential mitigation strategies to reduce aquatic methane emissions.

aquatic ecosystem↗
NASA NTRS2018

Top-Down NOx Emissions of European Cities Based on the Downwind Plume of Modelled and Space-Borne Tropospheric NO2 Columns

Top-down estimates of surface NOX emissions were derived for 23 European cities based on the downwind plume decay of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the LOTOS-EUROS (Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Ozone Simulation) chemistry transport model (CTM) and from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite retrievals, averaged for the summertime period (April-September) during 2013. Here we show that the top-down NOX emissions derived from LOTOS-EUROS for European urban areas agree well with the bottom-up NOX emissions from the MACC-III inventory data (R(exp 2) = 0.88) driving the CTM demonstrating the potential of this method. OMI top-down NOX emissions over the 23 European cities are generally lower compared with the MACC-III emissions and their correlation is slightly lower (R(exp 2) = 0.79). The uncertainty on the derived NO2 lifetimes and NOX emissions are on average ~55% for OMI and ~63% for LOTOS-EUROS data. The downwind NO2 plume method applied on both LOTOS-EUROS and OMI tropospheric NO2 columns allows to estimate NOX emissions from urban areas, demonstrating that this is a useful method for real-time updates of urban NOX emissions with reasonable accuracy.

NOx emissions↗
NASA NTRS1994

Vorticity and Vertical Motions Diagnosed from Satellite Deep-Layer Temperatures

Spatial fields of satellite-measured deep-layer temperatures are examined in the context of quasigeostrophic theory. It is found that midtropospheric geostrophic vorticity and quasigeostrophic vertical motions can be diagnosed from microwave temperature measurements of only two deep layers. The lower- ( 1000-400 hPa) and upper- (400-50 hPa) layer temperatures are estimated from limb-corrected TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) channel 2 and 3 data, spatial fields of which can be used to estimate the midtropospheric thermal wind and geostrophic vorticity fields. Together with Trenberth's simplification of the quasigeostrophic omega equation, these two quantities can be then used to estimate the geostrophic vorticity advection by the thermal wind, which is related to the quasigeostrophic vertical velocity in the midtroposphere. Critical to the technique is the observation that geostrophic vorticity fields calculated from the channel 3 temperature features are very similar to those calculated from traditional, 'bottom-up' integrated height fields from radiosonde data. This suggests a lack of cyclone-scale height features near the top of the channel 3 weighting function, making the channel 3 cyclone-scale 'thickness' features approximately the same as height features near the bottom of the weighting function. Thus, the MSU data provide observational validation of the LID (level of insignificant dynamics) assumption of Hirshberg and Fritsch.

Spencer, Roy W.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Loads and Sizing for Launch Vehicle Conceptual and Preliminary Design

Examples of both “top-down” and “bottom-up” methods for predicting launch and ascent loads, as well as launch vehicle component sizing, are presented. These techniques are most applicable during the conceptual and preliminary design stages, early in the project life-cycle where a lack of fidelity of detail is more acceptable. These techniques are applied to estimate the mass of components from the Saturn V and Space Shuttle launch vehicles, and results are compared to actual values from the flown vehicles

launch vehicles↗
NASA NTRS2003

Eastern Asian Emissions of Anthropogenic Halocarbons Deduced from Aircraft Concentration Data

The Montreal Protocol restricts production of ozone-depleting halocarbons worldwide. Enforcement of the protocol has relied mainly on annual government statistics of production and consumption of these compounds (bottom-up approach). We show here that aircraft observations of ha1ocarbon:CO enhancement ratios on regional to continental scales can be used to infer halocarbon emissions, providing independent verification of the bottom-up approach. We apply this topdown approach to aircraft observations of Asian outflow &om the TRACE-P mission over the western Pacific (March-April 2001) and derive emissions from eastern Asia (China, Japan, and Korea). We derive an eastern Asian carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) source of 21.5 Gg yr(sup -1), several-fold larger than previous estimates and amounting to -30% of the global budget for this gas. Our emission estimate for CFC-11 from eastern Asia is 50% higher than inventories derived from manufacturing records. Our emission estimates for methyl chloroform (CH3CC13) and CFC-12 are in agreement with existing inventories. For halon 1211 we find only a strong local source originating from the Shanghai area. Our emission estimates for the above gases result in a approximately equal to 40% increase in the ozone depletion potential (ODP) of Asian emissions relative to previous estimates, corresponding to a approximately equal to 10% global increase in ODP.

Palmer, Paul I.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gulf of Mexico Health & Air Quality: Mapping Methane Emission Plumes Using Sunglint-configured Imagery for Monitoring Offshore Oil and Gas Activity

We had three project objectives that we set out to accomplish. The first objective is to demonstrate how remote sensing can complement the current bottom-up methane emission assessments. Currently, quantities of disposed gas vented and flared are self-reported by operators to BOEM and BSEE. Meanwhile, inspections are uncommon, and ground sensors are non-existent. Therefore, remote sensing may be the agencies' best bet in verifying these operator accounts. The second objective is to identify methane plumes in the Gulf of Mexico, Asia, and elsewhere using Sentinel-2, LandSat, and PRISMA images, and then present an estimate of their emission rate. While methane retrievals from oil and gas infrastructure on-shore has been relatively well-documented, doing so on the offshore oil and gas platforms is more difficult, less prevalent, and contingent on the presence of specific conditions. The final objective is to give our partners, BOEM and BSEE, a more robust understanding of methane emissions from oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. This increased knowledge, paired with a demonstration of methane monitoring, is intended to help our partners think about how they can incorporate remote sensing into their monitoring, regulatory and enforcement framework.

Ben Dahan↗
NASA NTRS1991

System reliability approaches for advanced propulsion system structures

This paper identifies significant issues that pertain to the estimation and use of system reliability in the design of advanced propulsion system structures. Linkages between the reliabilities of individual components and their effect on system design issues such as performance, cost, availability, and certification are examined. The need for system reliability computation to address the continuum nature of propulsion system structures and synergistic progressive damage modes has been highlighted. Available system reliability models are observed to apply only to discrete systems. Therefore a sequential structural reanalysis procedure is formulated to rigorously compute the conditional dependencies between various failure modes. The method is developed in a manner that supports both top-down and bottom-up analyses in system reliability.

Cruse, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Sulfur

The profound changes in global SO[subscript 2] emissions over the last decades have affected atmospheric composition on a regional and global scale with large impact on air quality, atmospheric deposition and the radiative forcing of sulfate aerosols. Reproduction of historical atmospheric pollution levels based on global aerosol models and emission changes is crucial to prove that such models are able to predict future scenarios. Here, we analyze consistency of trends in observations of sulfur components in air and precipitation from major regional networks and estimates from six different global aerosol models from 1990 until 2015. There are large interregional differences in the sulfur trends consistently captured by the models and observations, especially for North America and europe. europe had the largest reductions in sulfur emissions in the first part of the period while the highest reduction came later in North America and east Asia. the uncertainties in both the emissions and the representativity of the observations are larger in Asia. However, emissions from East Asia clearly increased from 2000 to 2005 followed by a decrease, while in India a steady increase over the whole period has been observed and modelled. the agreement between a bottom-up approach, which uses emissions and process-based chemical transport models, with independent observations gives an improved confidence in the understanding of the atmospheric sulfur budget.

Aas, Wenche↗
NASA NTRS2013

Emissions Estimation from Satellite Retrievals: a Review of Current Capability

Since the mid-1990s a new generation of Earth-observing satellites has been able to detect tropospheric air pollution at increasingly high spatial and temporal resolution. Most primary emitted species can be measured by one or more of the instruments. This review article addresses the question of how well we can relate the satellite measurements to quantification of primary emissions and what advances are needed to improve the usability of the measurements by U.S. air quality managers. Built on a comprehensive literature review and comprising input by both satellite experts and emission inventory specialists, the review identifies several targets that seem promising: large point sources of NOx and SO2, species that are difficult to measure by other means (NH3 and CH4, for example), area sources that cannot easily be quantified by traditional bottom-up methods (such as unconventional oil and gas extraction, shipping, biomass burning, and biogenic sources), and the temporal variation of emissions (seasonal, diurnal, episodic). Techniques that enhance the usefulness of current retrievals (data assimilation, oversampling, multi-species retrievals, improved vertical profiles, etc.) are discussed. Finally, we point out the value of having new geostationary satellites like GEO-CAPE and TEMPO over North America that could provide measurements at high spatial (few km) and temporal (hourly) resolution.

air quality↗
NASA NTRS2004

Ultrasensitive Label-free Electronic Chip for DNA Analysis Using Carbon Nanotube Nanoelectrode Arrays

There is a strong need for faster, cheaper, and simpler methods for nucleic acid analysis in today s clinical tests. Nanotechnologies can potentially provide solutions to these requirements by integrating nanomaterials with biofunctionalities. Dramatic improvement in the sensitivity and multiplexing can be achieved through the high-degree miniaturization. Here, we present our study in the development of an ultrasensitive label-free electronic chip for DNA/RNA analysis based on carbon nanotube nanoelectrode arrays. A reliable nanoelectrode array based on vertically aligned multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) embedded in a SiO2 matrix is fabricated using a bottom-up approach. Characteristic nanoelectrode behavior is observed with a low-density MWNT nanoelectrode array in measuring both the bulk and surface immobilized redox species. The open-end of MWNTs are found to present similar properties as graphite edge-plane electrodes, with a wide potential window, flexible chemical functionalities, and good biocompatibility. A BRCA1 related oligonucleotide probe with 18 bases is covalently functionalized at the open ends of the MWNTs and specifically hybridized with an oligonucleotide target as well as a PCR amplicon. The guanine bases in the target molecules are employed as the signal moieties for the electrochemical measurements. Ru(bpy)3(2+) mediator is used to further amplify the guanine oxidation signal. This technique has been employed for direct electrochemical detection of label-free PCR amplicon through specific hybridization with the BRCAl probe. The detection limit is estimated to be less than approximately 1000 DNA molecules, approaching the limit of the sensitivity by laser-based fluorescence techniques in DNA microarray. This system provides a general electronic platform for rapid molecular diagnostics in applications requiring ultrahigh sensitivity, high-degree of miniaturization, simple sample preparation, and low- cost operation.

Li, Jun↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P)Aircraft Mission: Design, Execution, and First Results

The NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission was conducted in February-April 2001 over the NW Pacific (1) to characterize the Asian chemical outflow and relate it quantitatively to its sources and (2) to determine its chemical evolution. It used two aircraft, a DC-8 and a P-3B, operating out of Hong Kong and Yokota Air Force Base (near Tokyo), with secondary sites in Hawaii, Wake Island, Guam, Okinawa, and Midway. The aircraft carried instrumentation for measurements of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone and its precursors, aerosols and their precursors, related species, and chemical tracers. Five chemical transport models (CTMs) were used for chemical forecasting. Customized bottom-up emission inventories for East Asia were generated prior to the mission to support chemical forecasting and to serve as a priori for evaluation with the aircraft data. Validation flights were conducted for the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) satellite instrument and revealed little bias (6 plus or minus 2%) in the MOPITT measurements of CO columns. A major event of transpacific Asian pollution was characterized through combined analysis of TRACE-P and MOPITT data. The TRACE-P observations showed that cold fronts sweeping across East Asia and the associated warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the dominant pathway for Asian outflow to the Pacific in spring. The WCBs lift both anthropogenic and biomass burning (SE Asia) effluents to the free troposphere, resulting in complex chemical signatures. The TRACE-P data are in general consistent with a priori emission inventories, lending confidence in our ability to quantify Asian emissions from socioeconomic data and emission factors. However, the residential combustion source in rural China was found to be much larger than the a priori, and there were also unexplained chemical enhancements (HCN, CH3Cl, OCS, alkylnitrates) in Chinese urban plumes. The Asian source of CCl4 was found to be much higher than government estimates. Measurements of HCN and CH3CN indicated a dominant biomass burning source and ocean sink for both gases. Large fractions of sulfate and nitrate were found to be present in dust aerosols. Photochemical activity in the Asian outflow was strongly reduced by aerosol attenuation of UV radiation, with major implications for the concentrations of HOx, radicals. New particle formation, apparently from ternary nucleation involving NH3, was observed in Chinese urban plumes.

Jacob, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluating Global Emission Inventories of Biogenic Bromocarbons

Emissions of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) are poorly constrained. However, their inclusion in global models is required to simulate a realistic inorganic bromine (Bry) loading in both the troposphere, where bromine chemistry perturbs global oxidizing capacity, and in the stratosphere, where it is a major sink for ozone (O3). We have performed simulations using a 3-D chemical transport model (CTM) including three top-down and a single bottom-up derived emission inventory of the major brominated VSLS bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2). We perform the first concerted evaluation of these inventories, comparing both the magnitude and spatial distribution of emissions. For a quantitative evaluation of each inventory, model output is compared with independent long-term observations at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) ground-based stations and with aircraft observations made during the NSF (National Science Foundation) HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) project. For CHBr3, the mean absolute deviation between model and surface observation ranges from 0.22 (38 %) to 0.78 (115 %) parts per trillion (ppt) in the tropics, depending on emission inventory. For CH2Br2, the range is 0.17 (24 %) to 1.25 (167 %) ppt. We also use aircraft observations made during the 2011 Stratospheric Ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere (SHIVA) campaign, in the tropical western Pacific. Here, the performance of the various inventories also varies significantly, but overall the CTM is able to reproduce observed CHBr3 well in the free troposphere using an inventory based on observed sea-to-air fluxes. Finally, we identify the range of uncertainty associated with these VSLS emission inventories on stratospheric bromine loading due to VSLS (Br(VSLS/y)). Our simulations show Br(VSLS/y) ranges from approximately 4.0 to 8.0 ppt depending on the inventory. We report an optimized estimate at the lower end of this range (approximately 4 ppt) based on combining the CHBr3 and CH2Br2 inventories which give best agreement with the compilation of observations in the tropics.

bromocarbons↗