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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

In the Mix : A Workshop Merging Computational Chemistry and Electrochemistry Alongside Data Science

As chemistry expands to more complex and interdisciplinary areas, a new generation of diverse researchers must engage with science and learn effective cross-disciplinary collaboration and communication. To these ends, we designed and implemented In the Mix, a graduate student-led, two-day workshop for undergraduate students promoting collaborative science in the context of energy storage innovations. Here, the interactive workshop was designed for future and emerging researchers to gain hands-on experience with data science, computational chemistry, and electrochemistry techniques that are critical for developing materials for battery technologies. Participants also visited commercial renewable energy facilities to help them connect discovery-based research with industry and broader societal considerations. The workshop content and structure ensured that participants experienced the interrelatedness of the fields and understood the importance of collaborative research to yield scientific advances with real-world applications. An external team evaluated the workshop and participants’ perceptions of their experiences. While our research context was energy storage, the workshop goals and outcomes are applicable to other contexts. Interdisciplinary, experiential workshops are a key avenue to broadening participation in science and research, and the ideas presented here can be readily modified for other scientific contexts and/or incorporated as broader impact activities.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stability Frontiers in the AM 6 X 6 Kagome Metals: The Ln Nb 6 Sn 6 ( Ln :Ce–Lu,Y) Family and Density-Wave Transition in LuNb 6 Sn 6

The kagome motif is a versatile platform for condensed matter physics, hosting rich interactions between magnetic, electronic, and structural degrees of freedom. In recent years, the discovery of a charge density wave (CDW) in the AV 3 Sb 5 superconductors and structurally-derived bond density waves (BDW) in FeGe and ScV 6 Sn 6 have stoked the search for new kagome platforms broadly exhibiting density wave (DW) transitions. Here, in this work, we evaluate the known AM 6 X 6 chemistries and construct a stability diagram that summarizes the structural relationships among the >125 member family. Subsequently, we introduce our discovery of the broader LnNb 6 Sn 6 (Ln:Ce–Nd,Sm,Gd–Tm,Lu,Y) family of kagome metals and an analogous DW transition in LuNb 6 Sn 6 . Our X-ray scattering measurements clearly indicate a (1/3, 1/3, 1/3) ordering wave vector (√$\bar{3}$ x √$\bar{3}$ x $3$ superlattice) and diffuse scattering on half-integer L-planes. Our analysis of the structural data supports the “rattling mode” DW model proposed for ScV 6 Sn 6 and paints a detailed picture of the steric interactions between the rare-earth filler element and the host Nb–Sn kagome scaffolding. We also provide a broad survey of the magnetic properties within the HfFe 6 Ge 6 -type LnNb 6 Sn 6 members, revealing a number of complex antiferromagnetic and metamagnetic transitions throughout the family. This work integrates our new LnNb 6 Sn 6 series of compounds into the broader AM 6 X 6 family, providing new material platforms and forging a new route forward at the frontier of kagome metal research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Zonal‐Scale of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation and Its Propagation Speed on the Interannual Time‐Scale

Abstract While no significant long‐term trend in the propagation speed of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter is found during the past decades, pronounced year‐to‐year variability of the MJO phase speed is illustrated by analyzing a century‐long record data set. During the winters when fast MJO propagation is observed, the MJO exhibits a much larger zonal‐scale than that during the winters with slow propagation. A broader extension in MJO circulation effectively induces stronger and broader lower‐tropospheric moistening (drying) to the east (west) of MJO through horizontal moisture advection, prompting a faster MJO phase speed. The larger MJO zonal‐scale during the fast MJO propagation winters is coincident with anomalously increased background sea surface temperatures and precipitable water over both the western Indian Ocean and central/eastern Pacific, reminiscent of an expansion of the Indo‐Pacific warm pool. A fundamental question remains open regarding the key processes that determine the zonal‐scale of MJO organization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large‐Eddy Simulations of a Convection Cloud Chamber: Sensitivity to Bin Microphysics and Advection

Abstract Bin microphysics schemes are useful tools for cloud simulations and are often considered to provide a benchmark for model intercomparison. However, they may experience issues with numerical diffusion, which are not well quantified, and the transport of hydrometeors depends on the choice of advection scheme, which can also change cloud simulation results. Here, an atmospheric large‐eddy simulation model is adapted to simulate a statistically steady‐state cloud in a convection cloud chamber under well‐constrained conditions. Two bin microphysics schemes, a spectral bin method and the method of moments, as well as several advection methods for the transport of the microphysical variables are employed for model intercomparison. Results show that different combinations of microphysics and advection schemes can lead to considerable differences in simulated cloud properties, such as cloud droplet number concentration. We find that simulations using the advection scheme that suffers more from numerical diffusion tends to have a smaller droplet number concentration and liquid water content, while simulation with the microphysics scheme that suffers more from numerical diffusion tends to have a broader size distribution and thus larger mean droplet sizes. Sensitivities of simulations to bin resolution, spatial resolution, and temporal resolution are also tested. We find that refining the microphysical bin resolution leads to a broader cloud droplet size distribution due to the advection of hydrometeors. Our results provide insight for using different advection and microphysics schemes in cloud chamber simulations, which might also help understand the uncertainties of the schemes used in atmospheric cloud simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the Cascade: Removing GCM Biases Improves Dynamically Downscaled Climate Projections

Polarization surrounding bias correction (BC) in creating climate projections arises from its lack of physicality. Here, we perform and analyze 18 dynamical downscaling simulations (with and without BC) to better understand the physical impacts of BC, applied before downscaling, on regional climate output across the western United States. Without BC, downscaled precipitation is systematically and unrealistically wet biased compared to a hierarchy of observationally based datasets over the 1980–2014 period due to cascading mean–state Global Climate Model (GCM) biases: (a) overly strong lower–tropospheric lapse rates (5 K/km), (b) overly cold (2 K) tropospheric temperatures, and (c) anomalous mid–tropospheric cyclonic vorticity advection. With BC, downscaled precipitation (snow) biases are virtually eliminated (halved). Identified GCM biases are common to the broader Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. Physical effects of BC on the quality of the regionalized projections, pending an evaluation of BC's distortion of the downscaled climate response, may motivate its broader application by dynamical downscalers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the multi-functional properties of renewable lignin carbon fibers via defining the structure–property relationship using different biomass feedstocks

Lignin has been explored extensively as a renewable precursor for carbon materials, considering its abundance as a major component of plant cell walls and its sustainability as a byproduct of both lignocellulosic biorefinery and the paper-making industry. Despite the extensive efforts to define the process–property relationship, it remains largely unknown how lignin biosynthesis and its chemistry would impact the resultant carbon fiber properties, for both mechanical and electroconductive performances. Such inadequate understanding fundamentally limits feedstock design and selection to improve carbon fiber properties toward broader commercial applications. Using lignin from a broad range of biomass feedstocks for carbon fiber manufacturing, we have fundamentally explored the structure–function relationship between lignin chemistry and carbon fiber performance. Specifically, lignin extracted from hardwood (sugar maple), softwood (loblolly pine and red cedar), and herbaceous plants (corn stover and switchgrass) was used for carbon fiber manufacturing, considering the very different lignin structures from these feedstocks. Linear regression models were established to define the relationship between carbon fiber mechanical properties and lignin structural characteristics. The results highlighted that the content of β-O-4 linkages correlates significantly with the tensile strength and elastic modulus of lignin carbon fibers, indicating that more linear β-O-4 linkages would promote the carbon fiber mechanical performance. Moreover, electroconductive properties are essential for broader energy device application of lignin-based carbon fibers, yet the mechanisms controlling their electroconductivity are largely unknown. Furthermore, we hereby demonstrated that a higher β-O-4 content also promotes the electroconductivity of lignin carbon fibers. Microstructure analysis further revealed that the crystallite size and content of the pre-graphitic turbostratic carbon structure in lignin-based carbon fibers were enhanced as the β-O-4 linkages increased. The content of β-O-4 linkages has shown a strong correlation with the crystallite content in a linear regression model. This study thus revealed the underlying mechanisms regarding how the lignin structure in planta defines the resultant carbon fiber properties. Moreover, the study also highlighted the correlation between the mechanical and electroconductive properties of lignin-based carbon fibers, both of which were defined by the lignin structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging the bioeconomy for carbon drawdown

Stringent climate change mitigation scenarios rely on large-scale drawdown of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Amongst drawdown technologies, bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) has received considerable attention in the climate mitigation literature. Recently, attention has shifted further from a relatively narrow focus on BECCS to a broader focus on Biomass Carbon Removal and Storage (BiCRS). The concept of BiCRS has the potential to enable a future where the climate mitigation value of biomass resources is more valuable than the energy value, due to the potential to remove and sequester large quantities atmospheric CO2. This article provides a qualitative overview of prominent BiCRS technologies from which a set of the most promising technologies are assessed quantitively through life cycle assessment. There are numerous opportunities to incorporate carbon removal and management within the bioeconomy, but the majority of immediate carbon removal potential exists in four bioproducts: bioenergy, bioplastics, biochar, and wood products. We analyze the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and disposition of sequestered carbon over 10 000 years for four bioproducts representative of each broader category: an advanced BECCS pathway, biopolyethylene, oriented strand board, and biochar soil amendment. We find that the BECCS pathway has the greatest magnitude and durability of CO2 storage over all time horizons. However, non-BECCS pathways achieve 34–64% of the drawdown magnitude relative to BECCS and retain 55–67% of their initial drawdown over 100 years (central estimate). We identify three engineering strategies for enhancing carbon drawdown: reducing biomass supply chain emissions, maximizing carbon stored in long-lived products, and extending the term of carbon storage. Finally, we highlight the need to characterize both the magnitude and permanence of carbon drawdown as a means for policymakers and technology developers to deploy limited biomass resources to maximize mitigation benefits.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Forecasting for the Weather Driven Energy System - A New Task under IEA Wind

The energy system needs a range of forecast types for its operation in addition to the narrow wind power forecast that has been the focus of considerable recent attention. Therefore, the group behind the former IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting for Wind Energy has initiated a new IEA Wind Task with a much broader perspective, which includes prospective interaction with other IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes such as the ones for PV, hydropower, system integration, hydrogen etc. In the new IEA Wind Task 51 (entitled "Foreacsting for the Weather Drive Energy System") the existing Work Packages (WPs) are complemented by work streams in a matrix structure. The Task is divided in three WPs according to the stakeholders: WP1 is mainly aimed at meteorologists, providing the weather forecast basis for the power forecasts. In WP2, the forecast service vendors are the main stakeholders, while the end users populate WP3. The new Task 51 started in January 2022. Planned activities include 4 workshops. The first will focus on the state of the art in forecasting for the energy system plus related research issues and be held during September 2022 in Dublin. The other three workshops will be held later during the 4-year Task period and address (1) seasonal forecasting with emphasis on Dunkelflaute, storage and hydro, (2) minute-scale forecasting, and (3) extreme power system events. The issues and conclusions of each of the workshops will be documented by a published paper. Additionally, the Recommended Practice on Forecast Solution Selection will be updated to reflect the broader perspective.

geophysics computing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Role of sheared E × B flow in self-organized, improved confinement states in magnetized plasmas

A great scientific success story of magnetic fusion research in the past several decades is the theoretical development and experimental testing of the process of turbulence decorrelation and stabilization by sheared E×B flow which shows that E×B shear effects are ubiquitous in magnetized plasmas. This concept of turbulence decorrelation and stabilization has the universality needed to explain the H-mode edge transport barriers seen in limiter and divertor tokamaks, stellarators, and mirror machines; the broader edge transport barrier seen in VHmode plasmas; and the core transport barriers formed in tokamaks. Similar effects are seen in linear devices. These examples of confinement improvement are of considerable physical interest; it is not often that a system self-organizes to reduce transport when an additional source of free energy is applied to it. The transport decrease associated with E×B velocity shear is also of great practical benefit to fusion research, since it contributed to substantially increased fusion yield in all DT magnetic fusion experiments conducted to date. The fundamental physics involved in transport reduction is the effect of E×B shear on the growth, radial extent, and phase correlation of turbulent eddies in the plasma. The same basic transport reduction process can be operational in various portions of the plasma because there are a number of ways to change the radial electric field Er. An important secondary theme in this area is the synergistic effect of E×B velocity shear and magnetic shear. Although the E×B velocity shear appears to have an effect on broader classes of microturbulence, magnetic shear can mitigate some potentially harmful effects of E×B velocity shear and facilitate turbulence stabilization. Our present understanding in this area is the result of a multi-decade, intertwined effort in theory, modeling and diagnostic development combined with continuing experimental investigations. These experiments have clearly demonstrated that increased E×B shear causes reductions in turbulence and transport. Finally, the experimental findings are generally consistent with the basic theoretical models although considerable work remains to be done before we have a fully predictive theory of transport in magnetized plasmas including E×B shear effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy storage emerging: A perspective from the Joint Center for Energy Storage Research

Energy storage is an integral part of modern society. A contemporary example is the lithium (Li)-ion battery, which enabled the launch of the personal electronics revolution in 1991 and the first commercial electric vehicles in 2010. Most recently, Li-ion batteries have expanded into the electricity grid to firm variable renewable generation, increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of transmission and distribution. Important applications continue to emerge including decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles, rail, maritime shipping, and aviation and the growth of renewable electricity and storage on the grid. This perspective compares energy storage needs and priorities in 2010 with those now and those emerging over the next few decades. The diversity of demands for energy storage requires a diversity of purpose-built batteries designed to meet disparate applications. Advances in the frontier of battery research to achieve transformative performance spanning energy and power density, capacity, charge/discharge times, cost, lifetime, and safety are highlighted, along with strategic research refinements made by the Joint Center for Energy Storage Research (JCESR) and the broader community to accommodate the changing storage needs and priorities. Innovative experimental tools with higher spatial and temporal resolution, in situ and operando characterization, first-principles simulation, high throughput computation, machine learning, and artificial intelligence work collectively to reveal the origins of the electrochemical phenomena that enable new means of energy storage. This knowledge allows a constructionist approach to materials, chemistries, and architectures, where each atom or molecule plays a prescribed role in realizing batteries with unique performance profiles suitable for emergent demands.

Trahey, Lynn↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Language of Reliability: A System Engineer Perspective

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences, and how likely is it to occur? While this definition makes sense in a regulatory-based framework where for the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs), the risks associated with nuclear power plants typically are characterized in terms of core damage and large early release frequency (LERF), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant from a broader perspective. This is due to the very narrow context in which the term “risk” typically is defined as nuclear safety aspects that have the potential to impact public health. In this paper, we take the viewpoint of nuclear safety that is reflective of the current fleet of operating LWRs for which core damage frequency and LERF are appropriate metrics. For other advanced reactor designs, other more applicable technology neutral metrics of reactor safety metrics would be specified. A possible alternate path would start by redefining the word risk with a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision-making process. Rather than asking how likely an event could occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. Our approach starts by defining and quantifying component and system health in terms of a “distance” between its actual and limiting conditions, i.e., determination of the margin that exists between the current state/condition and the state where the component/system is no longer capable of achieving its intended function. A margin is a measure that is more reflective of the current state or performance of a component, and therefore more closely tied to decisions that are made on an ongoing basis. Further, we will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring (e.g., pump vibration data) and prognostic (e.g., component remaining useful life estimation) data, a margin can be described and determined for all types of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We show how classical reliability models (e.g., fault trees) can be used to quantify the system margin provided component margin values. In the approach described in this paper, the propagation of margin values through classical reliability models are not performed using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed in a typical plant probabilistic risk assessment). Instead, we show how it is possible to propagate margin values through Boolean logic gates (i.e., AND and OR operators) through distance-based operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated operation scenarios: Chapter 6 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

Here we report the progress of the development and optimization of operational scenarios for ITER and beyond, focusing upon baseline, hybrid, and steady-state scenarios since 2007. This includes advancements made by the integrated operation scenarios (IOS) topical group of the international tokamak physical activity as well as contributions from the broader tokamak community. The key area of research involves developing IOSs that encompass tokamak physics, operation, and technology by utilizing integrated modeling and control strategies. This requires leveraging available actuators to simultaneously control plasma position and shape, MHD activities that could lead to disruptions, transport, plasma-wall interaction and power exhaust, fuel cycle, fusion burn, and tritium breeding. The control extends from the plasma initiation phase, through the current ramp-up, flattop, start and end of the fusion burn, and current ramp-down, to the plasma termination phase. A review of the currently developed scenarios and modeling is provided in terms of (i) optimizing plasma initiation in ITER, (ii) preparing for the low activation phase to fully commission all tokamak systems and establish and validate physics and scenario conditions in preparation for deuterim-tritium (DT) operation, (iii) developing and preparing baseline and hybrid scenarios to demonstrate the feasibility of achieving these regimes within device constraints, (iv) exploring steady-state scenarios to meet ITER’s steady-state goals, (v) evaluating and preparing actuators for ITER, (vi) developing integrated control solutions using shared actuators. The most notable achievements include; (i) the development of ITER demonstration discharges by matching various dimensionless parameters, (ii) the development of scenarios in an ITER-like tungsten environment and DT operation, and (iii) the development of scenarios in superconducting tokamaks, enabling long-pulse operations with similar coil constraints to ITER. Along with these significant achievements, outstanding issues and recommendations for further research and development are provided. Importantly, this study goes beyond simply updating the ITER Physics Basis; it carries profound implications for the broader field of burning plasma research, offering valuable insights and guidance for the next generation of fusion experiments and devices.

ITER↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neutrino signatures of 100 2D Axisymmetric Core-Collapse Supernova Simulations

ABSTRACT We present in this paper a public data release of an unprecedentedly large set of core-collapse supernova (CCSN) neutrino emission models, comprising 100 detailed 2D axisymmetric radiation-hydrodynamic simulations evolved out to as late as ∼5 s post-bounce and spanning an extensive range of massive-star progenitors. The motivation for this paper is to provide a physically and numerically uniform benchmark data set to the broader neutrino detection community to help it characterize and optimize subsurface facilities for what is likely to be a once-in-a-lifetime galactic supernova burst event. With this release, we hope to (1) help the international experiment and modelling communities more efficiently optimize the retrieval of physical information about the next galactic CCSN, (2) facilitate the better understanding of core-collapse theory and modelling among interested experimentalists, and (3) help further integrate the broader supernova neutrino community.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

MolViewSpec: a Mol* extension for describing and sharing molecular visualizations

Data visualization is a pivotal component of a structural biologist’s arsenal. The Mol* Viewer makes molecular visualizations available to broader audiences via most web browsers. While Mol* provides a wide range of functionality, it has a steep learning curve and is only available via a JavaScript interface. To enhance the accessibility and usability of web-based molecular visualization, we introduce MolViewSpec (molstar.org/mol-view-spec), a standardized approach for defining molecular visualizations that decouples the definition of complex molecular scenes from their rendering. Scene definition can include references to commonly used structural, volumetric, and annotation data formats together with a description of how the data should be visualized and paired with optional annotations specifying colors, labels, measurements, and custom 3D geometries. Developed as an open standard, this solution paves the way for broader interoperability and support across different programming languages and molecular viewers, enabling more streamlined, standardized, and reproducible visual molecular analyses. MolViewSpec is freely available as a Mol* extension and a standalone Python package.

Midlik, Adam [European Bioinformatics Institute (U↗
DOE OSTI2021

Return of the Lemnaceae: duckweed as a model plant system in the genomics and postgenomics era

Abstract The aquatic Lemnaceae family, commonly called duckweed, comprises some of the smallest and fastest growing angiosperms known on Earth. Their tiny size, rapid growth by clonal propagation, and facile uptake of labeled compounds from the media were attractive features that made them a well-known model for plant biology from 1950 to 1990. Interest in duckweed has steadily regained momentum over the past decade, driven in part by the growing need to identify alternative plants from traditional agricultural crops that can help tackle urgent societal challenges, such as climate change and rapid population expansion. Propelled by rapid advances in genomic technologies, recent studies with duckweed again highlight the potential of these small plants to enable discoveries in diverse fields from ecology to chronobiology. Building on established community resources, duckweed is reemerging as a platform to study plant processes at the systems level and to translate knowledge gained for field deployment to address some of society’s pressing needs. This review details the anatomy, development, physiology, and molecular characteristics of the Lemnaceae to introduce them to the broader plant research community. We highlight recent research enabled by Lemnaceae to demonstrate how these plants can be used for quantitative studies of complex processes and for revealing potentially novel strategies in plant defense and genome maintenance.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2021

DeepLearnMOR: a deep-learning framework for fluorescence image-based classification of organelle morphology

Abstract The proper biogenesis, morphogenesis, and dynamics of subcellular organelles are essential to their metabolic functions. Conventional techniques for identifying, classifying, and quantifying abnormalities in organelle morphology are largely manual and time-consuming, and require specific expertise. Deep learning has the potential to revolutionize image-based screens by greatly improving their scope, speed, and efficiency. Here, we used transfer learning and a convolutional neural network (CNN) to analyze over 47,000 confocal microscopy images from Arabidopsis wild-type and mutant plants with abnormal division of one of three essential energy organelles: chloroplasts, mitochondria, or peroxisomes. We have built a deep-learning framework, DeepLearnMOR (Deep Learning of the Morphology of Organelles), which can rapidly classify image categories and identify abnormalities in organelle morphology with over 97% accuracy. Feature visualization analysis identified important features used by the CNN to predict morphological abnormalities, and visual clues helped to better understand the decision-making process, thereby validating the reliability and interpretability of the neural network. This framework establishes a foundation for future larger-scale research with broader scopes and greater data set diversity and heterogeneity.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying impacts of contact tracing on HIV epidemiological inference from phylogenetic data

Abstract Robust sampling methods are foundational to inferences using phylogenies. Yet the impact of using contact tracing, a type of non-uniform sampling used in public health applications such as infectious disease outbreak investigations, has not been investigated in the molecular epidemiology field. To understand how contact tracing influences a recovered phylogeny, we developed a new simulation tool called SEEPS (Sequence Evolution and Epidemiological Process Simulator) that allows for the simulation of contact tracing and the resulting transmission tree, pathogen phylogeny, and corresponding virus genetic sequences. Importantly, SEEPS takes within-host evolution into account when generating pathogen phylogenies and sequences from transmission histories. Using SEEPS, we demonstrate that contact tracing can significantly impact the structure of the resulting tree, as described by popular tree statistics. Contact tracing generates phylogenies that are less balanced than the underlying transmission process, less representative of the larger epidemiological process, and affects the internal/external branch length ratios that characterize specific epidemiological scenarios. We also examined real data from a 2007–2008 Swedish HIV-1 outbreak and the broader 1998–2010 European HIV-1 epidemic to highlight the differences in contact tracing and expected phylogenies. Aided by SEEPS, we show that the data collection of the Swedish outbreak was strongly influenced by contact tracing even after downsampling, while the broader European Union epidemic showed little evidence of universal contact tracing, agreeing with the known epidemiological information about sampling and spread. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including possible non-uniform sampling schemes when examining phylogenetic trees. For that, SEEPS serves as a useful tool to evaluate such impacts, thereby facilitating better phylogenetic inferences of the characteristics of a disease outbreak. SEEPS is available at https://github.com/MolEvolEpid/SEEPS.

Virology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalizability of heat-related health risk associations observed in a large healthcare claims database of patients with commercial health insurance

Extreme ambient heat is unambiguously associated with higher risk of illness and death. The Optum Labs Data Warehouse (OLDW), a database of medical claims from US-based patients with commercial or Medicare Advantage health insurance, has been used to quantify heat-related health impacts. Whether results for the insured sub-population are generalizable to the broader population has to our knowledge not been documented. We sought to address this question, for the US population in California from 2012 to 2019. We examined changes in daily rates of emergency department (ED) encounters and in-patient hospitalization encounters for all-causes, heat-related outcomes, renal disease, mental/behavioral disorders, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. OLDW was the source for health data for insured individuals in California, and health data for the broader population were gathered from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI). We defined extreme heat exposure as any day in a group of 2 or more days with maximum temperatures exceeding the county-specific 97.5 th percentile and used a space-time-stratified case–crossover design to assess and compare the impacts of heat on health. Average incidence rates of medical encounters differed by dataset. However, rate ratios for ED encounters were similar across datasets for all causes (ratio of incidence rate ratios (rIRR) = 0.989; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.973, 1.011), heat-related causes (rIRR = 1.080; 95% CI = 0.999, 1.168), renal disease (rIRR = 0.963; 95% CI = 0.718, 1.292), and mental health disorders (rIRR = 1.098; 95% CI = 1.004, 1.201). Rate ratios for inpatient encounters were also similar. This work presents evidence that OLDW can continue to be a resource for estimating the health impacts of extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗