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At least 73 records · Page 4

Global and regional hydrological impacts of global forest expansion

Abstract. Large-scale reforestation, afforestation, and forest restoration schemes have gained global support as climate change mitigation strategies due to their significant carbon dioxide removal (CDR) potential. However, there has been limited research into the unintended consequences of forestation from a biophysical perspective. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), we apply a global forestation scenario, within a Paris Agreement-compatible warming scenario, to investigate the land surface and hydroclimate response. Compared to a control scenario where land use is fixed to present-day levels, the forestation scenario is up to 2 °C cooler at low latitudes by 2100, driven by a 10 % increase in evaporative cooling in forested areas. However, afforested areas where grassland or shrubland are replaced lead to a doubling of plant water demand in some tropical regions, causing significant decreases in soil moisture (∼ 5 % globally, 5 %–10 % regionally) and water availability (∼ 10 % globally, 10 %–15 % regionally) in regions with increased forest cover. While there are some increases in low cloud and seasonal precipitation over the expanded tropical forests, with enhanced negative cloud radiative forcing, the impacts on large-scale precipitation and atmospheric circulation are limited. This contrasts with the precipitation response to simulated large-scale deforestation found in previous studies. The forestation scenario demonstrates local cooling benefits without major disruption to global hydrodynamics beyond those already projected to result from climate change, in addition to the cooling associated with CDR. However, the water demands of extensive forestation, especially afforestation, have implications for its viability, given the uncertainty in future precipitation changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Techno Economic Analysis Development for Enhanced Weathering and Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

Enhanced weathering and marine carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are emerging technologies that can aid in the direct removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. This poster presents on NETL’s active (ongoing) work on the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of enhanced weathering and marine CDR. Financial assumptions will be common with already released Direct Air Capture Case Studies

Leptinsky, Sarah↗

Process Modeling and Optimization of DAC Systems and Novel Sorbent Materials

This poster presents an overview of the general methodology to be implemented in Task 9.0, Advanced Modeling Support of CDR Pilot Projects, of the Carbon Dioxide Removal program (CDR FWP22). Specifically, the poster presents the multi-scale modelling framework and optimization approaches to develop DAC systems, and how this can support bench/pilot scale tests that improve data collection and minimize uncertainty for scale-up of DAC technologies.

Caballero, Daison↗

Process Modeling and Analysis of a Novel Sorbent Material for Direct Air Capture Applications

This poster presents results of Task 9.0, Advanced Modeling Support of CDR Pilot Projects, of the Carbon Dioxide Removal program (CDR FWP23). Specifically, the poster presents the multi-scale modelling framework to investigate alternate processes configuration for DAC applications including Vacuum-Assisted Temperature Swing Adsorption (TVSA) process and sweep gas for regeneration.

Caballero, Daison↗

Visioning a Global Carbon Monitoring System That Can Quantify and Attribute Ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal: Where Are We Now and How Might We Get There?

As atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the resulting social costs rise, it is increasingly important to conduct research on technical approaches to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at the gigaton scale. One highly uncertain but perhaps plausible solution is ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR), which encompasses a suite of proposed techniques for increasing the net flux of CO2 from the atmosphere to the ocean. As reflected in a 2022 National Academy of Sciences report, interest in ocean CDR is rapidly growing, and new stakeholders from a wide range of fields want access to air-sea CO2 flux and ocean carbon information to understand the potential risks and benefits of ocean CDR. Moreover, there is an urgent need for research to develop a scientific basis to support these societal needs. At the same time, there is a growing need to vision a global carbon monitoring system that can quantify natural and anthropogenic perturbations in the air-sea CO2 flux to quantify and attribute the impacts of ocean CDR efforts on the ocean carbon sink. Here, we propose to present nascent efforts at the Ames Research Center to leverage NASA's unique remote sensing and computational capabilities and expertise in basic and applied Earth science to meet the needs of the ocean CDR stakeholder community as represented by the OceanVisions network. Specifically we aim to develop a global ocean CDR scenario explorer with two objectives: 1) to make quantitative estimates of the air-sea CO2 flux and its uncertainty more accessible to a wide range of users, and 2) to enable these diverse users to interactively explore the uncertain impacts on air-sea CO2 fluxes in a wide range of ocean CDR scenarios. The information would be provided to users via a public graphical user interface, and the results would be based on a new synthesis of scientific observations and knowledge in a global ocean mixed layer inverse model run on supercomputers. The proposed tool aims to fill a unique and valuable niche for users and the scientific community by balancing tradeoffs between user interests, scientific knowledge, and technical capabilities. We will conclude by visioning the potential implications for a global carbon monitoring system in a world with gigaton scale ocean CDR.

Global↗

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. Here, in our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

100 % renewables↗

Specialty grand challenge: renaming our section to “Carbon Dioxide Removal”

While the concept of removing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere to help prevent climate change has been around for decades, it is only relatively recently that its importance within climate policy has moved into mainstream discussions. As such, conventions for nomenclature are widely debated. The proposed methods of removing CO 2 from the atmosphere to restore a level that ensures a stable climate, are diverse and often share little in their form and function beyond their impact on atmospheric CO 2 . However, for this reason alone, it is useful to refer to these within an umbrella term. In this editorial, we outline why the editorial board has decided to rename this section of Frontiers in Climate to "Carbon Dioxide Removal".

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transport Cost for Carbon Removal Projects With Biomass and CO2 Storage

Strategies to remove carbon from the atmosphere are needed to meet global climate goals. Promising strategies include the conversion of waste biomass to hydrogen, methane, liquid fuels, or electricity coupled with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). A key challenge for these projects is the need to connect geographically dispersed biomass supplies with geologic storage sites by either transporting biomass or CO 2 . We assess the cost of transport for biomass conversion projects with CCS using publicly available cost data for trucking, rail, and CO 2 pipelines in the United States. We find that for large projects (order of 1 Mt/yr CO 2 or greater), CO 2 by pipeline is the lowest cost option. However, for projects that send most of the biomass carbon to storage, such as gasification to hydrogen or electricity production, biomass by rail is a competitive option. For smaller projects and lower fractions of carbon sent to storage, such as for pyrolysis to liquid fuels, CO 2 by rail is the lowest cost option. Assessing three plausible example projects in the United States, we estimate that total transport costs range from $24/t-CO 2 stored for a gasification to hydrogen project traversing 670 km to $\$ 36$/t for a gasification to renewable natural gas project traversing 530 km. In general, if developers have flexibility in choosing transport mode and project type, biomass sources and storage sites can be connected across hundreds of kilometers for transport costs in the range of $20-40/t-CO 2 stored. Truck and rail are often viable modes when pipelines cannot be constructed. Distances of 1,000 km or more can be connected in the same cost range when shared CO 2 pipelines are employed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Assessing the sequestration time scales of some ocean-based carbon dioxide reduction strategies

Abstract Ocean-based carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) strategies are an important part of the portfolio of approaches needed to achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions. Many ocean-based CDR strategies rely on injecting CO 2 or organic carbon (that will eventually become CO 2 ) into the ocean interior, or enhancing the ocean’s biological pump. These approaches will not result in permanent sequestration, because ocean currents will eventually return the injected CO 2 back to the surface, where it will be brought into equilibrium with the atmosphere. Here, a model of steady state global ocean circulation and mixing is used to assess the time scales over which CO 2 injected in the ocean interior remains sequestered from the atmosphere. There will be a distribution of sequestration times for any single discharge location due to the infinite number of pathways connecting a location at depth with the sea surface. The resulting probability distribution is highly skewed with a long tail of very long transit times, making mean sequestration times much longer than typical time scales. Deeper discharge locations will sequester purposefully injected CO 2 much longer than shallower ones and median sequestration times are typically decades to centuries, and approach 1000 years in the deep North Pacific. Large differences in sequestration times occur both within and between the major ocean basins, with the Pacific and Indian basins generally having longer sequestration times than the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Assessments made over a 50 year time horizon illustrates that most of the injected carbon will be retained for injection depths greater than 1000 m, with several geographic exceptions such as the Western North Atlantic. Ocean CDR strategies that increase upper ocean ecosystem productivity with the goal of exporting more carbon to depth will have mainly a short-term influence on atmospheric CO 2 levels because ∼70% will be transported back to the surface ocean within 50 years. The results presented here will help plan appropriate ocean CDR strategies that can help limit climate damage caused by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus

Abstract Existing studies indicate that future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries and regions will respond to varying and uncertain scales of future CDR concerning their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by modeling various levels of CDR-reliant pathways under climate change ambitions in Asia. We find that high CDR reliance leads to residual fossil fuel and industry emissions of about 8 Gigatonnes CO 2 yr −1 (GtCO 2 yr −1 ) by 2050, compared to less than 1 GtCO 2 yr −1 under moderate-to-low CDR reliance. Moreover, expectations of multi-gigatonne CDR could delay the achievement of domestic net zero CO 2 emissions for several Asian countries and regions, and lead to higher land allocation and fertilizer demand for bioenergy crop cultivation. Here, we show that Asian countries and regions should prioritize emission reduction strategies while capitalizing on the advantages of carbon removal when it is most viable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Abstract for CRADA between NETL and Eion Corp (AGMT-1287)

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and Eion Carbon (Participant) will collaborate in the development of critical metals (CM) extraction from mafic feedstocks prior to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) strategies. Mafic/ultramafic feedstocks may provide a source of energy relevant CM (e.g. Co, Cu, Ni, REE) in addition to reducing atmospheric CO 2 through enhanced weathering and subsequent ocean alkalinity enhancement. This research will identify candidate feedstocks with salable CM and methods for CM extraction as value added byproducts for the principal intended use of these alkaline feedstocks by Eion as a permanent CDR approach on farmland.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Large-Scale Commercial Carbon Capture Retrofit of the San Juan Generating Station

Enchant Energy, L.L.C. (Enchant) was selected to conduct a Front-End Engineering Design study (FEED) for the addition of a full-scale carbon capture system to remove carbon dioxide from the flue gas emissions of the two coal-fired generating units (total of 847 MW net) at San Juan Generating Station (SJGS), using Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Americas (MHIA) KM CDR Process™. Sargent & Lundy LLC (S&L) was selected as the primary technical lead, and along with various other organizations, were able to support Enchant’s completion of the following FEED tasks: Task 1 – Project Management & Planning; Task 2 – FEED Study; Task 3 - Final FEED Study Package. The FEED study period was between October 15, 2019 to September 30, 2022.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Metrics for quantifying the efficiency of atmospheric CO 2 reduction by marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR)

Abstract Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) is gaining interest as a tool to meet global climate goals. Because the response of the ocean–atmosphere system to mCDR takes years to centuries, modeling is required to assess the impact of mCDR on atmospheric CO 2 reduction. Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere model to quantify the atmospheric CO 2 reduction in response to a CDR perturbation. We define two metrics to characterize the atmospheric CO 2 response to both instantaneous ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and direct air capture (DAC): the cumulative additionality ( α ) measures the reduction in atmospheric CO 2 relative to the magnitude of the CDR perturbation, while the relative efficiency ( ϵ ) quantifies the cumulative additionality of mCDR relative to that of DAC. For DAC, α is 100% immediately following CDR deployment, but declines to roughly 50% by 100 years post-deployment as the ocean degasses CO 2 in response to the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. For instantaneous OAE, α is zero initially and reaches a maximum of 40%–90% several years to decades later, depending on regional CO 2 equilibration rates and ocean circulation processes. The global mean ϵ approaches 100% after 40 years, showing that instantaneous OAE is nearly as effective as DAC after several decades. However, there are significant geographic variations, with ϵ approaching 100% most rapidly in the low latitudes while ϵ stays well under 100% for decades to centuries near deep and intermediate water formation sites. These metrics provide a quantitative framework for evaluating sequestration timescales and carbon market valuation that can be applied to any mCDR strategy.

Yamamoto, Kana (ORCID:0009000731519234)↗

Potential of U.S. Marine and Offshore Wind Energy to Power Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

The goal of this project was to provide a preliminary feasibility assessment of powering different marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), carbon capture (mCC), and carbon sequestration (mCS) strategies with marine energy. The investigation focused on methods with clear power requirements at sea beyond monitoring such as artificial upwelling, deep ocean storage, electrochemical (eChem) mCDR and mCC, offshore microalgae cultivation, and seaweed farming and sinking. The project found that eChem mCDR powered by marine energy and offshore wind energy available in the United States could meet global CDR scales needed by 2040 and 2050 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100 and marine energy alone could greatly contribute to reaching scales needed by 2040. Note that this preliminary estimate assumes that it is possible to harvest all the marine and offshore wind resources available in the United States with existing technology options. Though the biological methods were limited in scale they still hold promise in developing carbon negative fuels and products which can reduce emissions in the short term.

afforestation↗

Mixing and dilution controls on marine CO 2 removal using alkalinity enhancement

Marine CO 2 removal (CDR) using enhanced-alkalinity seawater discharge was simulated in the estuarine waters of the Salish Sea, Washington, US. The high-alkalinity seawater would be generated using bipolar membrane electrodialysis technology to remove acid and the alkaline stream returned to the sea. Response of the receiving waters was evaluated using a shoreline resolving hydrodynamic model with biogeochemistry, and carbonate chemistry. Two sites, and two deployment scales, each with enhanced TA of 2997 mmol m -3 and a pH of 9 were simulated. The effects on air-sea CO 2 flux and pH in the near-field as well as over the larger estuary wide domain were assessed. The large-scale deployment (addition of 164 Mmoles TA yr -1 ) in a small embayment (Sequim Bay, 12.5 km 2 ) resulted in removal of 2066 T of CO 2 (45% of total simulated) at rate of 3756 mmol m -2 yr -1 , higher than the 63 mmol m -2 yr -1 required globally to remove 1.0 GT CO 2 yr -1 . It also reduced acidity in the bay, ΔpH ≈ +0.1 pH units, an amount comparable to the historic impacts of anthropogenic acidification in the Salish Sea. The mixing and dilution of added TA with distance from the source results in reduced CDR rates such that comparable amount 2176 T CO 2 yr -1 was removed over >1000 fold larger area of the rest of the model domain. There is the potential for more removal occurring beyond the region modeled. The CDR from reduction of outgassing between October and May accounts for as much as 90% of total CDR simulated. Of the total, only 375 T CO 2 yr -1 (8%) was from the open shelf portion of the model domain. With shallow depths limiting vertical mixing, nearshore estuarine waters may provide a more rapid removal of CO 2 using alkalinity enhancement relative to deeper oceanic sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗