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DOE OSTI2024

Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis

Here, this study assesses the techno-economic viability of city-scale building electrification, comparing a base case scenario with conventional HVAC systems to an electrified scenario with heat pump systems. EnergyPlus simulations reveal a 28% increase in annual electricity consumption in the electrified scenario, shifting the peak consumption from summer to winter with a 49% surge. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are then evaluated using HOMER Pro, considering renewable penetration from 0% to 100%. The net present cost (NPC) of the base case and electrified scenarios range from $\$10.34$ to $\$24.38$ billion and $\$8.79$ to $\$50.31$ billion, respectively. Sensitivity analysis explores the impact of carbon tax, fuel price, and renewable subsidies on HRESs in the electrified scenario. Results indicate that applying a carbon tax up to $\$120$/tonne of CO 2 increases the optimum renewable fraction from 5% to 26%, while higher fuel prices and renewable subsidies further enhance the feasibility by shifting the optimum renewable fraction to 60% and 54%, respectively, demonstrating the interplay between economic factors and renewable integration in electrified urban contexts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Operando S/TEM Reactions of Pt/TiO 2 Catalysts for Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis

Conversion of lignocellulosic biomass into the transportation fuel is an attractive concept. Using ex situ Catalytic Fast Pyrolysis (CFP) improves to upgrade bio-oils via catalytic deoxygenation of the biomass pyrolysis vapors. Zeolites are often used in this technique as the catalyst; however, in order to reduce minimum fuel selling price and improve carbon yields, ongoing research emphasizes catalyst optimization. By using bifunctional metal-acid catalysts and utilizing hydrogen, it is possible to improve carbon yields by minimizing the carbon-containing light gasses (since oxygen is removed aswater) and by reducing coke formation. Current research and development activities focuses on Pt/TiO 2 catalysts as the most promising catalyst candidates for the hydrodeoxygenation process. Here, our aim is to determine the structure-function relationships of the Pt/TiO 2 catalyst and the role of Pt dispersions within the catalyst on performance, using operando scanning transmission electron microscopy (S/TEM).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combined Algal Processing for the Synthesis of Liquid Oleofuels and Products (CAPSLOC) - WBS 1.3.4.204

Combined Algal Processing for the Synthesis of Liquid Oleofuels and Products (CAPSLOC) aims to develop a biorefinery concept that is composition-agnostic and enables economically, environmentally, and socially viable biofuel production by maximizing the value from each fraction. To achieve this, we have employed an iterative approach between R&D and TEA/LCA to establish process targets and quantify improvements in the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), reduce carbon intensity, and support the state of technology (SOT). We have surveyed various methods for biomass pretreatment and successfully demonstrated pre-pilot scale pretreatment in batch mode. Using techniques such as lipid modification, fermentation, mild oxidative treatment (MOT), and carbonization, we have developed biofuel precursors and a range of value-added co-products. Our project has demonstrated significant improvements in key aspects of algae processing, particularly in pretreatment technologies suitable for variable composition, co-products available from lipid and extracted solid streams, conditioning and fermenting high-protein hydrolysates, and recovering nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) nutrients for recycling to cultivation ponds. The success of this project will support the commercialization of a sustainable microalgal biorefinery industry.

biofuel↗

DOE OSTI2024

FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4)

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO2) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust and actionable insights for screening project finances.

CO2 storage↗

DOE OSTI2024

FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (2024): User’s Manual

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), in collaboration with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), has developed the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). This Excel-based tool provides a comprehensive framework for estimating the costs and breakeven prices associated with storing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in deep saline formations. Designed from the perspective of a CO 2 storage site owner, the CO2_S_COM incorporates four integrated modules—project management, financial analysis, activity cost estimation, and geological evaluation—to deliver fast, robust, and actionable insights for evaluating project finances. This is the user's manual for CO2_S_COM. The model may be accessed at this link: FECM/NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model CO2_S_COM 2024 (v4) - Submissions - EDX

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of a Novel Heat Pump Model for Estimating Economic Viability and Barriers of Heat Pumps in Dairy Applications in the United States

Heat pumps represent an important opportunity for energy savings and decarbonization. This work investigates the techno-economic performance of high-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) for use in the U.S. dairy industry. The studied heat pump performs a 50 °C temperature lift on a waste heat stream of cleaning water and applies the upgraded heat stream to a fluid milk pasteurization process. This work involved the creation of a HTHP model that estimated the coefficient of performance (COP), internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and payback period (PBP), and emissions saved for a heat pump replacing a natural gas boiler. Capital costs, operations, and maintenance (O&M) cost, heat pump lifetime, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and a cost of carbon were varied to perform a parametric study on the factors affecting the break-even price of HTHPs. The results show that HTHP economics are highly sensitive to COP and energy price environment, and less sensitive to capital and O&M cost variance, leading to a large scatter of positive and negative NPVs based on U.S. location. PBPs demonstrate a defined threshold, based on energy price environment, below which favorable two-to-three-year PBPs predominate. This work is focused on the U.S. dairy industry, but international application in relation to fossil vs. electricity price regimes. Heat pumps have seen wider adoption in regions with a high ratio of fossil energy to electricity prices ($/MMBTU vs. $/kWh). The U.S. has plentiful natural gas resulting in lower fossil energy prices which has reduced heat pump adoption. This paper identifies potential first mover industries for HTHP adoption and their associated price regimes even in regions with lower ratios of fossil energy to electricity prices that exist many places globally.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cyber-Physical Simulation of an Innovative Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell - Gas Turbine (SOEC-GT) Hybrid Energy System

To produce green hydrogen at scale and at low cost, the solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) systems would be tied to renewable power sources (mainly solar and wind), leveraging zero-carbon electricity at low prices and even nearly free during overgeneration scenarios. However, due to the intermittency of renewable power generation, the SOEC system is subjected to rapid load transitions that occur not only in diurnal cycles but also in short timeframes (e.g., sub-minute). This can result in fast degradation and thus greatly reduce the SOEC’s lifetime. Our team at the National Energy Technology Laboratory has demonstrated that the anode air flow can have a crucial role in SOEC thermal management. Typically, a higher air flow rate can help to mitigate the local temperature gradient distortion during rapid load transitions. To move a large amount of air, the gas turbine (GT; i.e., compressor-turbine-generator set) has been regarded as the most mature and efficient technology. In this presentation, we show the configuration and preliminary results of an innovative SOEC-GT hybrid energy system in a cyber-physical simulation (CPS) approach.

Zhang, Biao↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electric Vehicle Efficiency Ratios for Light-Duty Vehicles Registered in the United States

Electric vehicles (EVs) use energy more efficiently than gasoline vehicles. This is one of their primary attributes, enabling other benefits such as improved torque and reduced operating costs and greenhouse gas emissions. An electric vehicle efficiency ratio (EVER) is therefore important when calculating the financial and environmental benefits of EVs, calculating the impact that EVs have on a manufacturer's Corporate Average Fuel Economy rating, calculating credits in trading schemes such as California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, fuel price leveling, designing electricity tariffs from utility-owned public charging infrastructure, creating EV alternatives to gasoline excise taxes, and more.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

CO2ROpt (Feedstock Allocation Optimization Model) [SWR-22-13]

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains a critical challenge for the transportation and chemical sectors. The electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide is a potential pathway for production of fuels and chemicals that uses atmospheric carbon dioxide as a feedstock. Here we present an analysis of the potential for carbon dioxide captured from point sources and via direct air capture to be utilized in electrochemical reduction under different market scenarios. Using a numerical optimization framework and national data sets, scenarios for nationwide production of ethylene, formate, and carbon monoxide are evaluated at scales comparable to current production of these molecules in the United States. We show that developing a network for production of these products at scale requires capture and utilization of significant portions of the carbon dioxide that is currently emitted from large stationary point sources. Because carbon dioxide point sources are spatially and compositionally variable, their use for carbon dioxide reduction depends on electricity prices, capture cost, and location. If the power sector in the United States is decarbonized, carbon dioxide supply decreases significantly, increasing the importance of utilizing other carbon dioxide streams, and increasing the likelihood that direct air capture plays a role in supplying carbon dioxide feedstocks. These findings provide a first insight into the feedstock and energy constraints for carbon dioxide reduction.

Badgett, Alex↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Value of Nuclear Integrated Hydrogen Production and the Dependency of Electricity and Hydrogen Markets on Natural Gas

Producing low carbon Hydrogen at a competitive price is one of the challenges to hydrogen being part of the solution to reach net-zero emission targets set by the U.S. DOE by 2050. With projected near-term improvements in technology, hydrogen production via solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) / high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) integrated with existing light water reactor (LWR) Nuclear Power Plants (NPP-HTSE) can produce carbon-free hydrogen competitively. In the near term, a 10-year production tax credit (PTC) found in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been passed, which will catalyze the development and improvement of hydrogen production technology to be competitive. The “1-1-1” target set by the U.S. DOE is to reduce the cost of carbon-free hydrogen by 80% to $1 per kilogram in 1 decade. Several models are available to analyze the profitability, opportunity, and technical capability of NPP-HTSE systems. In order of complexity from most complex to least complex some of these models include: RAVEN/HERON, process models using Aspen HYSYS and capital expense estimations using Aspen Process Economic Analyzer (APEA) and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) calculation using the H2A model (Hydrogen Analysis Model), and custom spread sheets built by the interested party. Though some of the more advanced existing models provide detailed analysis to complex grid integrated problems, they also can take considerable time to setup and run. These advanced models are well suited to complex grid integrated analysis and the consideration of flexibility and variability of regulated and de-regulated electricity price and advanced estimation of capital and operating expenses and heat and material balances.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Visualization Tool for Comparing Low-Carbon Energy Options

This project developed a web based visualization tool for comparing current and future nuclear fuel cycle options to low-carbon and conventional energy technologies in the United States. While nuclear power is well established as the gold-standard for baseload power production and also as the technology with the lowest overall carbon intensity of any commercial form of electricity generation. This project develop a web-based tool for electricity producers and consumers to compare renewable and conventional energy technologies to the conventional and advanced nuclear fuel cycle options. The work leveraged data on land use, carbon intensity, unit cost and pricing data for renewables from the open literature. Input data from the Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis report will be used for current and advanced nuclear power systems. We coupled these data to energy flow and lifecycle models for user-selected energy generation and storage types. We will display economic comparisons from the perspectives of generators and consumers, as well as carbon production, land use, and reliability comparisons.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Synergistic Heat Pumped Thermal Storage and Flexibly Carbon Capture System

As the U.S. grid evolves toward a lower-carbon system, fossil generation assets need to operate in energy markets with high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration while also decreasing carbon emissions. Current carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies suffer from high capital cost and an inability to operate flexibly during periods of oscillating demand. The ARPA-E FLECCS Program Phase 1 was created to fund designing and optimizing innovative CCS processes that enable flexibility on a high-VRE grid. To address this need, the Colorado State University (CSU) Team won funding to design a synergized system of thermal energy storage, power generation, and flexible carbon capture to enable breakthrough system performance that achieves an LCOE <$75/MWh with >99% capture rate. This approach will target new or existing natural gas combined cycle power plants. The proposed design utilizes novel hot and cold thermal energy storage (TES) technologies that store low-cost, off-peak electricity as thermal energy to power CCS solvent regeneration and boost plant output during periods of peak demand. The design provides an overall optimized net present value (NPV) by maximizing low carbon power to grid while prices are highest using Storworks Power’s concrete TES technology. The team also capitalizes on decades of ION Clean Energy’s (ION) development in low cost and flexible pioneering solvent technology, which has proven reductions in energy consumption and overall cost of 28% and 38%, respectively, compared with state-of-the-art CCS.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Communication Requirements for Price-Based Grid Coordination

Meeting ambitious goals for carbon reduction and supporting an electric grid with high levels of renewable energy supply will require significant flexibility from the demand side. This paper outlines a system architecture and communication technology infrastructure to enable dynamic pricing to be used to finely tune coordination between the grid and its customers. Taking a cue from the success of Internet architecture, this system — Price-Based Grid Coordination — emphasizes simplicity and universality. It enables a wide variety of ways for prices and other signals to pass from the grid to individual flexible loads, including multiple possible locations for the intelligence that combines price signals with device functional needs. The paper includes a reference data model to describe how information from the utility level can be conveyed to customer devices, but independent of any particular protocol. The paper also summarizes technology standards development needs, and reviews research needs to address the full spectrum of coordination scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of aluminum-cerium alloy deployment on different cerium commodities

An imbalance problem exists in the rare earth element (REE) market with cerium and lanthanum being more abundant and less valuable than REEs used in permanent magnets such as neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. Research has been conducted on new applications for abundant REEs to improve mining economics. However, potential market impacts of these applications on individual REE commodities are unknown. A system dynamics model was built to investigate the impacts of a new aluminum-cerium (Al-Ce) alloy that can theoretically utilize three separate cerium forms: cerium carbonate, cerium oxide, or cerium metal. Cerium carbonate currently possesses the lowest price of the three available forms making it initially the most favorable choice. However, model results showed that cerium oxide could provide the best economics for future Al-Ce alloy deployment because its larger market size buffers major shocks to price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interplays In The Rare Earth Element Value Chain

Severson, Michael [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗