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DOE OSTI2025

Regulatory Considerations for Domestic Reprocessing Facility Physical Security

U.S. advanced non-light-water reactor vendors may pursue collocated on-site reprocessing activities. Therefore, these facilities are likely to possess formula quantities, or Category I quantities, of special nuclear material (SNM) during normal operations. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S. NRC) has yet to formally establish a regulatory framework for commercial reprocessing. While Category I requirements would explicitly not apply in this circumstance under current regulatory requirements, regulatory certainty does not exist. A novel framework should be developed to ensure public health and safety while also risk-informing the physical security requirements. This report reviews the relevant background of related rulemaking activities and proposes risk-informed physical protection requirements to satisfy these objectives. Insights from NRC security-related rulemaking activities provide a substantial technical basis to approach potential establishment of physical security requirements for reprocessing facilities. If a licensee can provide justification that the material satisfies a sufficient self-protecting radiation dose threshold, the material may not be subject to theft or diversion requirements and only potential sabotage requirements would apply. Furthermore, if the material can be justified to be moderately dilute, a set of risk-informed requirements could provide adequate protection of public health and safety. A revised performance objective for prevention of theft of moderately dilute Category I SNM may be detection to allow prompt recovery by a local law enforcement agency. However, a significant caveat to the proposed categorization scheme is the unknown integration of radiological sabotage with requirements for the protection against theft. Future licensees should consult with the NRC regarding treatment of this regulatory topic. Additionally, the self-protecting radiation dose threshold (either the existing or a proposed future threshold) would need to be considered. An integrated approach may apply graded potential requirements for protection against the design basis threat of radiological sabotage currently applicable to commercial nuclear power plants and Category I SNM facilities defined within 10 CFR 73.1(a).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radionuclide Inventory Threshold for Trench 31 and 34 Located Within the 200 West Area Low-Level Burial Grounds

Trenches 31 and 34 located in the 200 West Area Low-Level Burial Ground (LLBG) are authorized for disposal of low-level and mixed low-level radioactive waste under DOE Order 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management. A revised Disposal Authorization Statement was issued in October 2023 following approval of the performance assessment (PA) and supporting technical basis documents. To be consistent with approved PA calculations, the waste acceptance criteria (WAC) needs to be updated to include concentration limits for Category 1 (CAT1) and Category 3 (CAT3) waste along with the inventory limits. This environmental calculation file (ECF) provides the inventory limits for Category 1 and Category 3 waste disposal of radionuclides at Trench 31 and 34 based on the PA calculations. The concentration limits are not calculated as they are provided in the PA itself. The inventory thresholds (or limits) are calculated for only those radionuclides that are identified in the PA as the primary dose contributors. The primary dose contributors for the groundwater pathway are technetium-99, iodine-129, niobium-94, chlorine-36, molybdenum-93, and niobium-93m while those for the air pathway are tritium and carbon-14.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Life Cycle Assessment of Bioethanol Production: A Case Study from Poplar Biomass Growth in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Biomass appears to be one of the most prominent renewable resources for biofuels such as bioethanol, mainly due to its better environmental performance compared with fossil fuels. This study addresses a comprehensive environmental performance of bioethanol production, employing empirical data from hybrid poplar grown in the U.S. The study considers 1 MJ as a functional unit and employs a cradle-to-grave approach, which entails the feedstock and harvesting production of poplar, transport to a biorefinery, bioconversion of the biomass process, and fuel use. On average, bioconversion is the main contributor to environmental degradation in all the categories evaluated (77%). The second main contributor is either the feedstock and harvesting production of poplar (17%) or fuel use (6%), depending on the environmental category. Thus, focusing on only one category may induce a misinterpretation of the environmental performance of bioethanol production. Finally, environmental credits in the global warming potential (GWP) category were obtained from the carbon sequestered in the biomass during the growing period and from avoided fossil fuel emissions due to electricity production from a renewable source. This means that the net GWP of the life cycle of bioethanol from poplar biomass is slightly negative (–1.05 × 10 –3 kg CO 2 -eq·MJ –1 ).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A network approach for multiscale catchment classification using traits

Abstract. The classification of river catchments into groups with similar biophysical characteristics is useful to understand and predict their hydrological behavior. The increasing availability of remote sensing and other large-scale geospatial datasets has enabled the use of advanced data-driven approaches to classify catchments using traits such as topography, geology, climate, land cover, land use, and human influence. Unsupervised clustering algorithms based on the Euclidean distance are commonly used for trait-based classification but are not suitable for highly dimensional data. In this study we present a new network-based method for multi-scale catchment classification, which can be applied to large datasets and used to determine the traits associated with different catchment groups. In this framework, two networks are analyzed in parallel: the first being where the nodes are traits and the second being where the nodes are catchments. In both cases, edges represent pairwise similarity, and a network cluster detection algorithm is used for the classification. The trait network is used to investigate redundancy in the trait data and to condense this information into a small number of interpretable categories. The catchments network is used to classify the catchments into clusters and to identify representative catchments for the different groups using the degree centrality metric. We apply this method to classify 9067 river catchments across the contiguous United States at both regional and continental scales using 274 non-categorical traits. At the continental scale, we identify 25 interpretable trait categories and 34 catchment clusters of sizes greater than 50. We find that catchments with similar trait categories are typically located in the same region, with different spatial patterns emerging among clusters dominated by natural and anthropogenic traits. We also find that the catchment clusters exhibit distinct hydrological behavior based on an analysis of streamflow indices. This network approach provides several advantages over traditional means of classification, including better separation of clusters, the use of alternate similarity metrics that are more suitable for highly dimensional data, and reducing redundancy in the trait information. The paired catchment–trait networks enable analysis of hydrological behavior using the dominant trait categories for each catchment cluster. The approach can be used at multiple spatial scales since the network topologies adjust automatically to reflect the trait patterns at the scale of investigation. Finally, the representative catchments identified as hub nodes in the network can be used to guide transferable observational and modeling strategies. The method is broadly applicable beyond hydrology for classification of other complex systems that utilize different types of trait datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating Nuclear Facility Mission Completion Through an Improved Chemical Hazard Control Strategy - 20460

Code of Federal Regulation (CFR) 10 CFR 830, Nuclear Safety Management [1], explicitly identifies hazardous materials in addition to radioactive materials when establishing the scope of materials that must be evaluated in Hazard Category (HC) 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facilities. This inclusion has led to a near decade-long progression of more and more rigorous application of chemical hazard controls in these facilities. The progressive addition of more rigorous chemical hazard controls has occurred across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex, having been driven by contractors and regulators alike. However, chemical hazards in other DOE facilities have been, and continue to be, controlled using traditional industrial safety centered strategies. Thus, identical chemical hazards are controlled using dramatically different approaches based solely on the facility type. Not only are the controls different, the analysis and derivation rigor and requirements are also significantly different. In particular, chemical control derivation and application in non-nuclear facilities are much less onerous than the comprehensive hazard analysis process used in nuclear facilities, even in circumstances in which chemicals are not initiators to, or do not exacerbate a nuclear event. While the derivation and control approaches used in these two types of facilities are disparate, the safety results are similarly effective based on a review of reported chemical events from 2014 through 2018. While both approaches achieve comparable safety outcomes, the approach used in nuclear facilities results in significantly greater preparation costs and implementation costs. Furthermore, the problem with the differing approach is not relegated to the control preparation and implementation burden. The operational impact of potentially unnecessary controls slows mission completion without a corresponding increase in safety, not to mention the dilution of the importance of Technical Safety Requirements. The proposed solution must first include a critical and thorough examination of DOE Complex and top-tier chemical industry chemical hazard control practices, coupled with a similar examination of the driving facility regulatory requirements. Results from the examination can then be used to fuel a bold departure from current chemical control practices in Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facilities. Development of an improved and consistent chemical hazard control process would follow, one that continues to ensure safety while accelerating mission completion and significantly reducing the burden associated with chemical hazard control development and implementation. The improved process must establish a hierarchy where radiological hazards are addressed using safety class and safety significant controls and chemical hazards are addressed using overarching safety management programs (with limited unique exceptions). The improved Hazard Category 1,2, and 3 nuclear facility chemical hazard control strategy, while compliant with 10 CFR 830 [1], would be founded on the requirements in 10 CFR 851, Worker Safety and Health Program [2], and the complementary DOE O 151.1D, Comprehensive Emergency Management System [3]. In this way, the Hazard Category 1, 2, and 3 nuclear facility chemical hazard control strategy would, wherever appropriate, be the same process used at other DOE Complex facilities. Ultimately, the improved process will maintain safety and significantly reduce costs and life cycle risk through faster mission completion. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Panel Session 145: Challenges and Opportunities in Establishing a System for Transportation of SNF/UNF

Issues associated with establishing a SNF Transportation System in the U.S. are complex. In part, this is because in the US when discussing SNF, there are two distinct categories. The two categories represent significant differences in ownership, transportation-regulator, and even the physical characteristics of the SNF. Specifically, the physical differences in the SNF include size of the rods, associated quantities to be shipped, cladding material, and radionuclide content/enrichment. The first is commercial SNF (i.e., that associated with nuclear power plants), owned by utilities, until a permanent repository is built with DOE obligated by law to then assume the responsibility for shipping and ownership of the SNF. Since no-permanent repository currently exists, most commercial SNF is stored near the reactor in which it was installed, hence requiring no shipments. Although current shipments of commercial SNF are very limited, the few that do occur are generally performed to support a utilities SNF consolidation effort utility and for post irradiation examination/testing. However, with approximately 83,000 metric tons currently being stored at more than 70 sites around the U.S., when a permanent repository becomes available, the required number of shipments will be extensive. The second category is DOE and research reactor fuel. These fuel rods are generally much smaller in length than commercial fuel rods, with the quantity of rods transported in a shipment significantly less than the number of rods in a typical commercial fuel assembly. Currently, most of the SNF shipments within the U.S come from this category. DOE is currently managing about 2500 metric tons of heavy metal of SNF. This panel focused on updates and status of transportation of SNF/UNF. Panelists provided updates and information on continuing impacts, risk assessment, equipment (rail cars, handling, securement), possible rail routing, and proposed inspection equipment/routing prior to shipments. Panelists with presentations: Preparing for Nuclear Waste Transportation (Daniel Ogg); Challenges and Opportunities in Establishing a System for Transportation of SNF/UNF (Kathy Langan); UNF Transportation: Challenges and Opportunities (Michael Valenzano)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Self-duality under gauging a non-invertible symmetry

Abstract We discuss two-dimensional conformal field theories (CFTs) which are invariant under gauging a non-invertible global symmetry. At every point on the orbifold branch ofc= 1 CFTs, it is known that the theory is self-dual under gauging a ℤ 2 × ℤ 2 symmetry, and has Rep(H 8 ) and Rep(D 8 ) fusion category symmetries as a result. We find that gauging the entire Rep(H 8 ) fusion category symmetry maps the orbifold theory at radiusRto that at radius 2/R. AtR=$$ \sqrt{2} $$ 2 , which corresponds to two decoupled Ising CFTs (Ising 2 in short), the theory is self-dual under gauging the Rep(H 8 ) symmetry. This implies the existence of a topological defect line in the Ising 2 CFT obtained from half-space gauging of the Rep(H 8 ) symmetry, which commutes with thec= 1 Virasoro algebra but does not preserve the fully extended chiral algebra. We bootstrap its action on thec= 1 Virasoro primary operators, and find that there are no relevant or marginal operators preserving it. Mathematically, the new topological line combines with the Rep(H 8 ) symmetry to form a bigger fusion category which is a ℤ 2 -extension of Rep(H 8 ). We solve the pentagon equations including the additional topological line and find 8 solutions, where two of them are realized in the Ising 2 CFT. Finally, we show that the torus partition functions of the Monster 2 CFT and Ising×Monster CFT are also invariant under gauging the Rep(H 8 ) symmetry.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for pair production of third-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying into a top quark and a τ-lepton in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for pair production of third-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying into a top quark and a τ-lepton is presented. The search is based on a dataset of pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . Events are selected if they have one light lepton (electron or muon) and at least one hadronically decaying τ -lepton, or at least two light leptons. In addition, two or more jets, at least one of which must be identified as containing b-hadrons, are required. Six final states, defined by the multiplicity and flavour of lepton candidates, are considered in the analysis. Each of them is split into multiple event categories to simultaneously search for the signal and constrain several leading backgrounds. The signal-rich event categories require at least one hadronically decaying τ-lepton candidate and exploit the presence of energetic final-state objects, which is characteristic of signal events. No significant excess above the Standard Model expectation is observed in any of the considered event categories, and 95% CL upper limits are set on the production cross section as a function of the leptoquark mass, for different assumptions about the branching fractions into tτ and bν. Scalar leptoquarks decaying exclusively into tτ are excluded up to masses of 1.43 TeV while, for a branching fraction of 50% into tτ, the lower mass limit is 1.22 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intelligent industrial demand response to increase grid flexibility and reliability: A review

The rapid transition toward renewable energy has introduced challenges in grid stability due to the intermittency of non-dispatchable sources like solar and wind. Industrial Demand Response (IDR) offers a promising, cost-effective solution that adjusts energy consumption patterns to align with supply, increases renewable utilization, and reduces costs. This review provides an updated analysis of IDR, sorting technologies into five categories: energy storage, scheduled energy usage, operational flexibility, on-site generation, and intelligent operations. Energy storage solutions, while requiring little flexibility, often have the longest payback periods. While slightly better, on-site generation also has longer payback periods, ranging from 5 to 20 years or more. Scheduled energy usage, operational flexibility, and intelligent operations allow significant peak reduction at lower capital costs but require greater flexibility. While 15–20 % peak reduction is within the range of all five categories, scheduled energy use and on-site energy generation are shown to have reductions of up to 70–80 % in select scenarios. Combining multiple IDR strategies from these five categories maximizes both financial and operational benefits. Synergistic approaches are shown to enhance grid stability while reducing costs. As the grid evolves, IDR will enable a more flexible, renewable-powered future that will benefit industrial facilities and the broader energy system.

Demand flexibility↗
DOE OSTI2023

A study of examiner accuracy in cartridge case comparisons. Part 2: Examiner use of the AFTE range of conclusions

Here, this report describes an analysis of how examiners used the Association of Firearm and Toolmark Examiners (AFTE) Range of Conclusions in a controlled study undertaken to estimate examiner error rates in comparing cartridge cases. Results of the error rate analysis are reported in [1]; this paper focuses on a broader analysis of how the entire collection of classification categories, especially those in the Inconclusive range, were used by the participating examiners. Volunteer active examiners with AFTE membership or working in laboratories that participate in Association of Crime Laboratory Directors (ASCLD) were provided with 15 sets of three known and one questioned cartridge cases fired from a collection of 25 new Ruger SR9 handguns. Remington 9-mm Luger (manufacturer designation L9MM3) ammunition was used and comparison sets were made up of cartridge cases fired within 100 cartridges of each other for each gun. Examiners were provided with a background survey, an answer sheet allowing for the AFTE Range of Conclusions, and return shipping materials. The participating examiners were provided with both same-source and different-source comparison sets allowing the study to assess both error rates. Responses were received from 218 participating examiners. The overall rate of false-negatives was estimated as 0.367 % from comparisons known to be from the same firearm but reported as eliminations. The overall rate of false-positives was estimated as 1.01 % from comparisons known to be from different firearms but reported as identifications. In the case of true different-source examinations, it is clear that the three Inconclusive categories and the Elimination category are not used consistently by all examiners. We identify five different apparent patterns of use of the AFTE Range of Conclusions scale, and discuss possible reasons for and implications of these differences.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Choices in land representation materially affect modeled biofuel carbon intensity estimates

Estimates of biofuel carbon intensity are uncertain and depend on modeled land use change (LUC) emissions. While analysts have focused on economic and agronomic assumptions affecting the quantity of land converted, researchers have paid less attention to how models classify land into broad categories and designate some categories as ineligible for LUC. To explore the effect of these land representation attributes, we use three versions of a global human and Earth systems model, GCAM, and compute the “carbon intensity of land-use change” (CI-LUC) from increased U.S. corn ethanol production. We consider uncertainty in model parameters along with the choice of land representation and find the latter is one of the most influential parameters on estimated CI-LUC. A version of the model that protects 90% of non-commercial land reduced estimated CI-LUC by an average of 32% across Monte Carlo trials compared to our baseline model. Another version that mimics the GTAP-BIO-ADV land representation, which protects all non-commercial land, reduced CI-LUC by an average of 19%. The results of this experiment suggest that analyses of LUC that exclude non-commercial land categories or assume more land is protected than empirically justified underestimate biofuel induced LUC GHG emissions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Allometric-kinetic model predictions of concentration ratios for anthropogenic radionuclides across animal classes and food selection

Protection of the environment from radiation fundamentally relies on dose assessments for non-human biota. These dose assessments use measured or predicted concentrations of radionuclides in soil or water combined with Concentration Ratios (CRs) to estimate tissue concentrations in animals and plants, yet there is a paucity of CR data relative to the vast number of potential taxa and radioactive contaminants in the environment and their taxon-specific ecosystems. Because there are many taxa each having very different behaviors and biology and many possible bioavailable radionuclides, CRs have the potential to vary by orders-of-magnitude, as often seen in published data. Given the diversity of taxa, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has categorized non-human biota into 12 representative organisms (ROs), while the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) uses the non-taxon specific categories of terrestrial, riparian, and aquatic animals. The question we examine here is: do these categorizations adequately “represent” the broad diversity of animals? To explore this question, here we analyze an Allometric-Kinetic (A-K) model to calculate radionuclide-specific CRs for common animal classes which are then further subcategorized into herbivores, omnivores, carnivores, and invertebrate detritivores. Comparisons in CRs among animal classes exhibited only small differences, but there was order of magnitude differences between herbivores, carnivores, and especially detritivores, for many radionuclides of interest. These findings suggest that the ICRP ROs and the DOE categories are reasonable, but their accuracy could be improved by including sub-categories related to animal dietary ecology. Finally, comparisons of A-K model predicted CR values to published CRs show order-of-magnitude variations, providing justification for additional studies of assimilation across radionuclides and animal classes.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for the decay of the Higgs boson to a $Z$ boson and a light pseudoscalar particle decaying to two photons

A search for the decay of the Higgs boson to a Z boson and a light, pseudoscalar particle, a, decaying respectively to two leptons and to two photons is reported. The search uses the full LHC Run 2 proton–proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV, corresponding to 139 fb –1 collected by the ATLAS detector. This is one of the first searches for this specific decay mode of the Higgs boson, and it probes unexplored parameter space in models with axion-like particles (ALPs) and extended scalar sectors. The mass of the $a$ particle is assumed to be in the range 0.1–33 GeV. The data are analysed in two categories: a merged category where the photons from the $a$ decay are reconstructed in the ATLAS calorimeter as a single cluster, and a resolved category in which two separate photons are detected. The main background processes are from Standard Model Z boson production in association with photons or jets. The data are in agreement with the background predictions, and upper limits on the branching ratio of the Higgs boson decay to $Za$ times the branching ratio $a → γγ$ are derived at the 95% confidence level and they range from 0.08% to 2% depending on the mass of the $a$ particle. The results are also interpreted in the context of ALP models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The influence of cloud cover on the reliability of satellite-based solar resource data

Satellite-based solar resource data are often developed and validated by using binary cloudiness categories: clear sky or overcast cloudy sky. To investigate the reliability of solar resource data in partially cloudy conditions, we estimate cloud fraction using two distinct algorithms: a physical retrieval model using surface observed global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) and a temporal average of cloud mask data estimated by the observed DNI. Our analysis reveals a significant presence of scattered clouds, broken clouds, and mismatches between satellite- and surface-based cloud data at 17 surface sites across the contiguous United States, though confidently clear and cloudy conditions collectively account for more than 70 % of the data. Solar radiation is computed using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) algorithm and validated using surface observations. Here, our findings suggest that, in the presence of scattered clouds, NSRDB data for clear-sky conditions can be subject to significant overestimation. In cloudy-sky conditions classified by satellite data, DNI computed by the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) can be underestimated when limited clouds are detected by surface observations. The bias observed in several cloudiness categories indicates that the NSRDB is exceptionally accurate in confidently clear conditions. However, clear-sky conditions with scattered clouds and mismatched cloud data contribute significantly to the overall uncertainties in the NSRDB. Therefore, future improvements in solar resource data should involve development and implementation of satellite-derived cloud fraction and should consider a novel radiative transfer model accounting for amplified cloud reflection. The evaluation within cloudiness categories also provides a physical rationale for the superior performance of FARMS-DNI compared to the Direct Insolation Simulation Code (DISC) in both cloudy-sky and all-sky conditions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric Research Over the Extended Western North Atlantic Ocean Region and North American East Coast: A Review of Past Work and Challenges Ahead

Decades of atmospheric research have focused on the extended Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) region, including the East Coast of North America and the island of Bermuda, because of its unique location that offers accessibility, gradients in important atmospheric parameters, and a range of meteorological regimes leading to diverse conditions that are poorly understood. This work reviews decades of scientific investigations for the extended WNAO region. Approximately 40 combined field campaigns and long-term monitoring programs, in addition to 563 peer-reviewed publications between 1950 and 2019 have provided a firm foundation of knowledge for the extended WNAO region. Of particular importance in this region has been extensive work at the island of Bermuda that is host to important time series records of oceanic and atmospheric variables. Our review categorizes WNAO research into eight major categories, with some studies fitting into multiple categories (relative %): Aerosols (26%), Gases (23%), Development/Validation of Techniques, Models, and Retrievals (17%), Meteorology and Transport (10%), Air-Sea Interactions (9%), Wet Deposition (6%), Clouds/Storms (6%), and Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (3%). These extensive works have revealed a series of major knowledge gaps. For instance, a disproportionately low number of studies have been devoted to aerosol-cloud interactions, which is identified here as one of the most pressing research needs for the extended WNAO region. Recommendations for future research are provided in the categories highlighted above. Part 2 of this paper series will summarize major spatial and temporal features for the extended WNAO region.

Sorooshian, Armin↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characteristics and Variability of Winter Northern Pacific Atmospheric River Flavors

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are intensive poleward moisture transport events that are essential to the global hydrological cycle and are often linked to extreme weather events. We categorize the winter North Pacific ARs into two “flavors”: wind‐dominated (windy ARs) and moisture‐dominated (wet ARs) using 40 years of hourly data from fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis. We compare the differences between windy ARs and wet ARs including the lifecycle characteristics (such as genesis locations and changes of meteorological elements through the lifecycle), overall AR frequency, landfall impacts, and variability. The windy ARs are more likely to occur in the midlatitudes, while wet ARs are more active in the subtropics. Windy ARs are associated with intensive surface pressure lows, where the strong pressure gradient can support the strong wind within ARs. Due to larger size and longer lifetime, wet ARs are more likely to produce more precipitation over a lifecycle. By scaling the landfalling ARs, we show that wet ARs dominate the high‐category ARs (Category 4 and 5) with higher spatial frequency and more precipitation, and windy ARs have higher contributions in the lower AR categories especially over British Columbia. Windy ARs are modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections via the anomalous geopotential height and extended subtropical jet. Wet ARs are affected by the anomalous sea surface temperature over the midlatitudes related to ENSO. Sensitivity analysis with an alternate AR detection algorithm shows consistent results on AR flavors but with disagreement on the amplitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contribution of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diversity to Low‐Frequency Changes in ENSO Variance

Abstract El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity is characterized based on the longitudinal location of maximum sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and amplitude in the tropical Pacific, as Central Pacific events are typically weaker than Eastern Pacific events. SSTA pattern and intensity undergo low‐frequency modulations, affecting ENSO prediction skill and remote impacts, and resulting in low‐frequency changes in ENSO variance. Yet, how different ENSO types contribute to these decadal variance changes remains unclear. Here, we decompose the low‐frequency changes of ENSO variance into contributions from ENSO diversity categories. We propose a fuzzy clustering of monthly SSTA to allow for non‐binary event category memberships, where each event can belong to different clusters. Our approach identifies two La Niña and three El Niño categories and shows that the major shift of ENSO variance in the mid‐1970s was associated with an increasing likelihood of strong La Niña and extreme El Niño events.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven analysis and prediction of stable phases for high-entropy alloy design

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) represent a promising class of materials with exceptional structural and functional properties. However, their design and optimization pose challenges due to the large composition-phase space coupled with the complex and diverse nature of the phase formation dynamics. In this study, a data-driven approach that utilizes machine learning (ML) techniques to predict HEA phases and their composition-dependent phases is proposed. By employing a comprehensive dataset comprising 5692 experimental records encompassing 50 elements and 11 phase categories, we compare the performance of various ML models. Our analysis identifies the most influential features for accurate phase prediction. Furthermore, the class imbalance is addressed by employing data augmentation methods, raising the number of records to 1500 in each category, and ensuring a balanced representation of phase categories. The results show that XGBoost and Random Forest consistently outperform the other models, achieving 86% accuracy in predicting all phases. Additionally, this work provides an extensive analysis of HEA phase formers, showing the contributions of elements and features to the presence of specific phases. We also examine the impact of including different phases on ML model accuracy and feature significance. Notably, the findings underscore the need for ML model selection based on specific applications and desired predictions, as feature importance varies across models and phases. This study significantly advances the understanding of HEA phase formation, enabling targeted alloy design and fostering progress in the field of materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗