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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Land use-land cover gradient demonstrates the importance of perennial grasslands with intact soils for building soil carbon in the fertile Mollisols of the North Central US

The impact of land use change and agricultural management on the cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) is not well understood, limiting our ability to manage for, and accurately model, soil carbon changes at both local and regional scales. To address this issue, here we combined long-term soil incubations with acid-hydrolysis and dry combustion to parse total SOC (C t ) into three operationally defined SOC pools (active, slow, and recalcitrant) from 9 long-term sites with varying land uses on current and former tallgrass prairie soil. Land uses represented a gradient of soil disturbance histories including remnant prairie, restored prairie, grazed pasture, annual crop rotations, and continuous maize. Dry combustion was used to estimate total carbon (C t , physical), while acid hydrolysis of both the active (C a ) and slow (C s ) pools was used to estimate a recalcitrant carbon pool (C r , chemical). Non-linear modeling of CO 2 efflux data from the long-term incubations was then used to estimate C a , and the decomposition rates of both C a and C s (k a and k r , biological). The size of the slow pools C s was then defined mathematically as C t- (C a + C r ). Remnant prairie had the highest C t , while cool-season pasture and a 35-y-old restored prairie had higher C t than the other agricultural systems. All agricultural systems, including pasture, had the highest fraction of C t as C r (~50%), whose mean residence time (MRT) in these soils is ≥500 years (Paul et al., 2001a) demonstrating that this fraction persists, while the more labile fractions were lost over the course of a few months (C a ) to a few decades (C s ) as a result of tillage-intensive agriculture. The two- to four-decade MRT time of C s indicated a pool likely to be more responsive to the 20 to 40 years of land-use practices used at some of the sites. The C s pool was largest in the remnant- and 35-y-old prairies indicating significant C accrual and stabilization compared to the agricultural ecosystems. Interestingly, the remnant prairie maintained the highest C a pool as well, demonstrating the strong connection between the quantity of fresh C inputs and the potential for long-term C stabilization and accrual. The accumulation of C in active (≈labile) pools as a first step toward long-term stabilization highlights the tenuous nature of early carbon gains, which can be quickly lost in response to climate change or poor management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan Summary

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL, or the Laboratory) produced a Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) following Department of Energy (DOE) Guidance to assess and manage climate change related risks to the Laboratory’s assets and operations. This is a condensed summary of the Laboratory’s 2022 VARP – the full version of the document is not publicly available at this time. The VARP was led by the Pollution Prevention (P2) Program in the Environmental Protection and Compliance Division (EPC-DO) and covers the entirety of the 36-square-mile LANL site in Los Alamos, New Mexico. A Steering Committee, composed of representatives from the three main Laboratory Directorates and the Los Alamos Field Office, identified real property Critical Assets based on their Mission Dependency Index (MDI) scores. LANL used MDI scores of 70 and above, which are considered Mission-Critical, to generate a list of 141 Critical Asset facilities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

MV Sea Change: Fuel Cell, Emissions, and Hydrogen Fueling Performance

The Sea Change Project, managed and financed by SWITCH Maritime, produced the first zero-emission 100% hydrogen fuel-cell powered commercial ferry in the world. The MV Sea Change is a 70-foot catamaran equipped with a 360-kW fuel cell powertrain and a 250-bar 246 kg capacity hydrogen storage system. The 75-passenger vessel began public passenger service in July 2024 as part of the San Francisco Bay Ferry system. Summarized here are aspects of the design of the vessel, its construction, and vessel bunkering with high-pressure hydrogen. Results from a fuel cell performance analysis are also presented, along with estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) and criterial pollutant emissions assuming different sourcings of hydrogen. Lessons learned from the project will be briefly reviewed.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Conductivity of a Novel Salt-Hydrogel Complex as a Phase Change Material for Building Thermal Management

Use of electricity for space heating, ventilation and air conditioning in buildings may be better managed through temporary energy storage. Compared with electrochemical storage, the levelized cost of thermal energy storage systems can be lower depending on geographical location and thermophysical properties [1]. In any phase change material (PCM), the rate of absorption and release of thermal energy increases with higher thermal conductivity [2]. However, leading PCMs like paraffin waxes have thermal conductivities on the order of 0.1 W/mK. Glauber’s salt, a salt hydrate, possesses a relatively high thermal conductivity but suffers from supercooling and phase segregation. Research has shown that polymer-based composites with salt hydrates can prevent phase segregation and limit supercooling over hundreds of cycles [3] though the thermal conductivity of the composite may be reduced leading to low energy storage rates. Here, we report thermal conductivity measurements on polymer hydrogels which are stable in solutions of Glauber’s salt. To measure thermal conductivity of soft gels, we use a 3-omega method [4] where heat flows bidirectionally through a substrate below and through a gel placed on top. This suits measurements of both gels and liquids unlike transient plane heat source or transient hot wire methods. We report measurements of thermal conductivity of salt-hydrogel complexes as a function of temperature, cross-linking and salt concentration. In addition, we present modeling of thermal conductivity of sodium sulfate solutions with available theories. We finally employ polarized optical microscopy to observe inside the transparent hydrogel networks, showing that precipitating crystals may influence thermal conductivity measurements for high salt concentrations. Our thermal conductivity results combined with enthalpy of phase change, mass density and specific heat are essential to accurately design thermal storage systems for energy-efficient buildings.

composite, thermal conductivity↗
DOE OSTI2023

A simple soil mass correction for a more accurate determination of soil carbon stock changes

Abstract Agricultural soils can act as a sink for large quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) but can also be sources of carbon to the atmosphere. The international standard for assessing SOC stock and measuring stock change stipulates fixed depth sampling to at least 30 cm. The tendency of bulk density (BD) to decrease with decreasing disturbance and increasing SOC concentration and the assumption of constant SOC and BD within this depth profile promotes error in the estimates of SOC stock. A hypothetical but realistic change in BD from 1.5 to 1.1 g cm −3 from successive fixed depth sampling to 30 cm underestimates SOC stock change by 17%. Significant effort has been made to evaluate and reduce this fixed depth error by using the equivalent soil mass (ESM) approach, but with limited adoption. We evaluate the error in SOC stock assessment and change generated from fixed depth measurements over time relative to the ESM approach and propose a correction that can be readily adopted under current sampling and analytical methods. Our approach provides a more accurate estimate of SOC stock accumulation or loss that will help incentivize management practice changes that reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture and further legitimize the accounting practices used by the emerging carbon market and organizations that have pledged to reduce their supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Panel Session 70: Nuclear Power Plant Waste Management, LLRW Processing Issues

This panel focused on senior utility managers discussing issues with commercial LLW processors. LLW processors had an opportunity to update utilities/NPPs on new or different services or technologies being offered to assist in their radioactive waste management goals, changes to their facility license, revisions to their acceptance guidelines, and emerging compliance issues. Panelists with presentations: UniTech - 'Expanding to Reduce Costs' LLW Processor Update (Gregg Johnstone); Veolia Nuclear Solutions Federal Services - Alaron Nuclear Services (Dave Garber); EnergySolutions Tennessee Processing Facilities (Fred Schulz); Complex Waste Management Issues Services and Treatment Facilities (George M. Taylor)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Doubling protected land area may be inefficient at preserving the extent of undeveloped land and could cause substantial regional shifts in land use

Abstract Projection of land use and land‐cover change is highly uncertain yet drives critical estimates of carbon emissions, climate change, and food and bioenergy production. We use new, spatially explicit land availability data in conjunction with a model sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of additional land protection on land use and land cover. The land availability data include protected land and agricultural suitability and is incorporated into the Moirai land data system for initializing the Global Change Analysis Model. Overall, decreasing land availability is relatively inefficient at preserving undeveloped land while having considerable regional land‐use impacts. Current amounts of protected area have little effect on land and crop production estimates, but including the spatial distribution of unsuitable (i.e., unavailable) land dramatically shifts bioenergy production from high northern latitudes to the rest of the world, compared with uniform availability. This highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity in understanding and managing land change. Approximately doubling the current protected area to emulate a 30% protected area target may avoid land conversion by 2050 of less than half the newly protected extent while reducing bioenergy feedstock land by 10.4% and cropland and grazed pasture by over 3%. Regional bioenergy land may be reduced (increased) by up to 46% (36%), cropland reduced by up to 61%, pasture reduced by up to 100%, and harvested forest reduced by up to 35%. Only a few regions show notable gains in some undeveloped land types of up to 36%. Half of the regions can reach the target using only unsuitable land, which would minimize impacts on agriculture but may not meet conservation goals. Rather than focusing on an area target, a more robust approach may be to carefully select newly protected land to meet well‐defined conservation goals while minimizing impacts to agriculture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd on Hanford for Calendar Years 2019-2024

Biologists first documented elk on the Hanford Site in 1972; since then, the elk herd known as the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd (RHEH) has grown substantially (PNNL-13331, Population Characteristics and Seasonal Movement Patterns of the Rattlesnake Hills Elk Herd: Status Report 2000). Through the 1990s, the core range of the RHEH was focused on the portion of the Hanford Reach National Monument known as the Fitzner-Eberhardt Arid Lands Ecology (ALE) Reserve. More recently, larger numbers of elk have been occupying the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Hanford Field Office (HFO), formerly the DOE, Richland Operations Office managed portion- of the Hanford Site, known as central Hanford (Figure 1-1). This began with bachelor groups of bulls occupying the site intermittently, and the herd has grown to resident herds, including bulls, cows, and calves. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) established a target herd size for the RHEH of less than 350 animals to minimize damages on adjacent private agricultural lands (Washington State Elk Herd Plan–Yakima Elk Herd [WDFW 2002]). Attempts to control the RHEH population through hunting on private lands and a relocation effort during 2000 have failed to limit growth of the population toward the WDFW target, and the herd exceeds 1,600 according to recent counts (PNNL-13331; DOE/RL- 2023-20, Hanford Annual Site Environmental Report for Calendar Year 2022). Although elk are present on central Hanford year-round, they continue to move between areas offsite, the ALE Reserve, and central Hanford throughout the year, and it is these movements that result in many of the elk-vehicle collisions (EVC) that occur along Hanford Site roads and on the Washington State highways bordering the site. In addition, changes in management strategies on the ALE Reserve, including recent and potential future tribal elk hunts, may alter herd behavior and result in additional animals transiting onto and off central Hanford.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using stable isotopes to inform water resource management in forested and agricultural ecosystems

Present and future climatic trends are expected to markedly alter water fluxes and stores in the hydrologic cycle. In addition, water demand continues to grow due to increased human use and a growing population. Sustainably managing water resources requires a thorough understanding of water storage and flow in natural, agricultural, and urban ecosystems. Measurements of stable isotopes of water (hydrogen and oxygen) in the water cycle (atmosphere, soils, plants, surface water, and groundwater) can provide information on the transport pathways, sourcing, dynamics, ages, and storage pools of water that is difficult to obtain with other techniques. However, the potential of these techniques for practical questions has not been fully exploited yet. Here, we outline the benefits and limitations of potential applications of stable isotope methods useful to water managers, farmers, and other stakeholders. We also describe several case studies demonstrating how stable isotopes of water can support water management decision-making. Finally, we propose a workflow that guides users through a sequence of decisions required to apply stable isotope methods to examples of water management issues. We call for ongoing dialogue and a stronger connection between water management stakeholders and water stable isotope practitioners to identify the most pressing issues and develop best-practice guidelines to apply these techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating direct vessel injection accident-event progression of AP1000 and key figures of merit to support the design and development of water-cooled small modular reactors

The passive safety systems (PSSs) within water-cooled reactors are meticulously engineered to function autonomously, requiring no external power source or manual intervention. They depend exclusively on inherent natural forces and the fundamental principles of reactor physics, such as gravity, natural convection, and phase changes, to manage, alleviate, and avert the release of radioactive materials into the environment during accident scenarios like a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). PSSs are already integrated into such operating commercial reactors as the Advanced Pressurized Reactor-1000 MWe (AP1000) and the Water-Water Energetic Reactor-1200 MWe (WWER-1200) are adopted in most of the upcoming small modular reactor (SMR) designs. Examples of water-cooled SMR PSSs are the passive emergency core-cooling system (ECCS), passive containment cooling system (PCCS), and passive decay-heat removal system, the designs of which vary based on reactor system-design requirements. However, understanding the accident-event progression and phases of a LOCA is pivotal for adopting a specific PSS for a new SMR design. This study covers the accident-event progression for direct vessel injection (DVI) small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SB-LOCA), associated physics phenomena, knowledge gaps, and important figures of merit (FOMs) that may need to be evaluated and assessed to validate thermal-hydraulics models with an available experimental dataset to support new SMR design and development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Novel technologies for emission reduction complement conservation agriculture to achieve negative emissions from row-crop production

Plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. Because agriculture’s productivity is based on this process, a combination of technologies to reduce emissions and enhance soil carbon storage can allow this sector to achieve net negative emissions while maintaining high productivity. Unfortunately, current row-crop agricultural practice generates about 5% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and European Union. Here, to reduce these emissions, significant effort has been focused on changing farm management practices to maximize soil carbon. In contrast, the potential to reduce emissions has largely been neglected. Through a combination of innovations in digital agriculture, crop and microbial genetics, and electrification, we estimate that a 71% (1,744 kg CO 2 e/ha) reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from row crop agriculture is possible within the next 15 y. Importantly, emission reduction can lower the barrier to broad adoption by proceeding through multiple stages with meaningful improvements that gradually facilitate the transition to net negative practices. Emerging voluntary and regulatory ecosystems services markets will incentivize progress along this transition pathway and guide public and private investments toward technology development. In the difficult quest for net negative emissions, all tools, including emission reduction and soil carbon storage, must be developed to allow agriculture to maintain its critical societal function of provisioning society while, at the same time, generating environmental benefits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Socially-aware evaluation framework for transportation

Technological advancements are rapidly changing traffic management in cities. Navigation applications, in particular, have impacted cities in many ways by rerouting traffic. As different routing strategies distribute traffic differently, understanding these disparities across multiple city-relevant dimensions is extremely important for decision-makers. We develop a multi-themed framework called Socially- Aware Evaluation Framework for Transportation (SAEF), which assists in understanding how traffic routing and the resultant dynamics affect cities. The framework is presented for four Bay Area cities, for which we compare three routing strategies - user equilibrium travel time, system optimal travel time, and system optimal fuel. The results demonstrate that many neighborhood impacts, such as traffic load on residential streets and around minority schools, degraded with the system-optimal travel time and fuel routing in comparison to the user-equilibrium travel time routing. The findings also show that all routing strategies subject the city's disadvantaged neighborhoods to disproportionate traffic exposure. Our intent with this work is to provide an evaluation framework that enables reflection on the consequences of traffic routing and management strategies, allowing city planners to recognize the trade-offs and potential unintended consequences.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimising response to an introduction of African swine fever in wild pigs

African swine fever virus (ASFv) is a virulent pathogen that threatens domestic swine industries globally and persists in wild boar populations in some countries. Persistence in wild boar can challenge elimination and prevent disease-free status, making it necessary to address wild swine in proactive response plans. In the United States, invasive wild pigs are abundant and found across a wide range of ecological conditions that could drive different epidemiological dynamics among populations. Information on the size of the control areas required to rapidly eliminate the ASFv in wild pigs and how this area should change with management constraints and local ecology is needed to optimize response planning. We developed a spatially explicit disease transmission model contrasting wild pig movement and contact ecology in two ecosystems in Southeastern United States. We simulated ASFv spread and determined the optimal response area (reported as the radius of a circle) for eliminating ASFv rapidly over a range of detection times (when ASFv was detected relative to the true date of introduction), culling capacities (proportion of wild pigs in the culling zone removed weekly) and wild pig densities. Large radii for response areas (14 km) were needed under most conditions but could be shortened with early detection (≤ 8 weeks) and high culling capacities (≥ 15% weekly). Under most conditions, the ASFv was eliminated in less than 22 weeks using optimal control radii, although ecological conditions with high rates of wild pig movement required higher culling capacities (≥ 10% weekly) for elimination within 1 year. The results highlight the importance of adjusting response plans based on local ecology and show that wild pig movement is a better predictor of the optimal response area than the number of ASFv cases early in the outbreak trajectory. Furthermore, our framework provides a tool for determining optimal control plans in different areas, guiding expectations of response impacts, and planning resources needed for rapid elimination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Ne1 Mead - irrigated continuous maize site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Ne1 Mead - irrigated continuous maize site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Ne1 Mead - irrigated continuous maize site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The study site is one of three fields (all located within 1.6 km of each other) at the University of Nebraska Eastern Nebraska Research, Education and Extension Center near Mead, Nebraska. This site is irrigated with a center pivot system. Prior to the initiation of the study, the irrigated site had a 10-yr history of maize-soybean rotation under no-till. A tillage operation (disking) was done just prior to the 2001 planting to homogenize the top 0.1 m of soil, incorporate P and K fertilizers, as well as previously accumulated surface residues. This field was planted with maize every growing season. Since the 2001 tillage operation, the site has been under no-till management until the harvest of 2005. Following harvest, a conservation-plow tillage operation was initiated where a small amount of N fertilizer is sprayed on the residue immediately prior to the plow operation. Approximately 1/3 of the crop residue is left on the surface. The post-harvest conservation-plow operation continued until 2022. Since 2022, the site management has changed such that the field is now a strictly no-till, maize-soybean rotation (maize odd years and soybean even years).

Suyker, Andy↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Climate Risks to Midwest Infrastructure Workshop

Stakeholders in industry, agriculture, and city governments are struggling to understand how to manage climate change risks. Climate scientists, meanwhile, want to know what specific information their fellow citizens need from them to take action.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

An ML-based terrestrial data fusion and augmentation framework to enable advanced understanding of the terrestrial carbon and water interactions

Soil moisture is essential to the terrestrial carbon and water cycles and land–atmosphere interactions. There are various types of soil moisture data, and each type has the distinct spatiotemporal strengths and limitations, depending on the diverse applications and retrieval methodologies of different data types (Li et al., in review; The PNNL-82151 FY23 Report). However, the limitations of different soil moisture data in terms of accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage hinder our ability to further understand the soil moisture dynamics across scales. To have a gap free soil moisture data product with a fine spatiotemporal coverage and vertical profiles, we train extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models by using (1) in-situ soil moisture measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN), (2) soil moisture from the ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) at the 9 km and sub-daily spatiotemporal resolution, (3) the Daymet meteorological fields, and (4) data products that characterize surface conditions, including soil texture, organic content, topography, vegetation type, and rooting depth. We use the trained XGBoost models that have consistent performance across seven soil layers, i.e., 0–5 cm, 5–10 cm, 10–20 cm, 20–40 cm, 40–60 cm, 60–100 cm, and 100–200 cm, and the gridded model predictors to generate a soil moisture data at the 1 km and daily spatiotemporal resolution for the Continental United States (CONUS) from 2001–2020. This dataset can be broadly used for Earth system model benchmark, monitoring extreme weathers, making informed decisions regarding agriculture, water resource management, climate change mitigation, and ecosystem preservation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Epidemiological Investigation of a Mortality Event in a Translocated Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) Population in Northwest Florida

Nokuse Plantation, a 22,055 ha private conservation preserve in northwest Florida, is a recipient site for gopher tortoises translocated from development sites in Florida. Since 2006, Nokuse has received over 5,000 tortoises from multiple development sites. During 2013–2015, 52 tortoises were found sick (n = 14) or dead (n = 38) in multiple soft-release enclosures in which tortoises consistently exhibited clinical signs, with additional sick (n = 5) and dead (n = 5) tortoises presenting similarly during 2016–2017. When found alive, tortoises behaved abnormally (e.g., frequently out of burrows during cold weather, pacing along enclosure fencing), appeared emaciated, were lethargic, and had developed redness under plastron scutes. Similar numbers of male (n = 28) and female (n = 32) tortoises were recovered along with two of unidentified sex, including mainly adults (n = 59) and three subadults. Physical examination, blood analysis, and other diagnostics were indicative of starvation and dehydration. Most sick tortoises provided with supportive care recovered. Necropsy findings generally confirmed starvation, with no evidence of infectious pathogens or contaminants. There were no apparent differences in quality of habitat, plant community, or soil or water among affected and unaffected enclosures. Botanical surveys indicated adequate forage quality and quantity, with no poisonous exotic or native plants detected. No land management practices changed prior to this event. Analysis of epidemiological data and demographic factors from before and during this mortality event identified initial density of tortoises in the enclosures as exerting the strongest influence on detection of tortoise morbidity and mortality. We believe that the stress associated with mixing tortoises from different populations and at higher densities during translocation impacted an individual tortoise’s ability to obtain or absorb adequate nutrients from foraging, ultimately leading to a wasting condition consistent with starvation. Based on our findings, we recommend a maximum of 3 gopher tortoises per ha in soft-release enclosures for translocation, but further research is warranted to investigate the complexity of stress and social pressures associated with translocation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Historical and projected future runoff over the Mekong River basin

The Mekong River (MR) crosses the borders and connects six countries, including China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. It provides critical water resources and supports natural and agricultural ecosystems, socioeconomic development, and the livelihoods of the people living in this region. Understanding changes in the runoff of this important international river under projected climate change is critical for water resource management and climate change adaptation planning. However, research on long-term runoff dynamics for the MR and the underlying drivers of runoff variability remains scarce. Here, we analyse historical runoff variations from 1971 to 2020 based on runoff gauge data collected from eight hydrological stations along the MR. With these runoff data, we then evaluate the runoff simulation performance of five global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by four global climate models (GCMs) under the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Furthermore, based on the best simulation combination, we quantify the impact of future climate change on river runoff changes in the MR. The result shows that the annual runoff in the MR has not changed significantly in the past 5 decades, while the establishment of dams and reservoirs in the basin visibly affected the annual runoff distribution. The ensemble-averaged result of the Water Global Assessment and Prognosis version 2 (WaterGAP2; i.e. GHM) forced by four GCMs has the best runoff simulation performance. Under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; i.e. RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), the runoff of the MR is projected to increase significantly (p<0.05); e.g. 3.81 ± 3.47 m 3 s -1 a -1 (9 ± 8 % increase in 100 years) at the upper reach under RCP2.6 and 16.36 ± 12.44 m 3 s -1 a -1 (13 ±10 % increase in 100 years) at the lower reach under RCP6.0. In particular, under the RCP6.0 scenario, the increase in annual runoff is most pronounced in the middle and lower reaches, due to increased precipitation and snowmelt. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the runoff distribution in different seasons varies obviously, increasing the risk of flooding in the wet season and drought in the dry season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗