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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the U.S. Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

Abstract The historic 22–26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record‐breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month‐long regional convection‐permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4–6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low‐level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%–59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak‐to‐moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Trees halve urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming

Although tree cover reduces the urban heat island, no global estimate quantifies air temperature reductions by contemporary or future tree cover, currently and with climate change. Here, we estimate these reductions for all 8,919 large urban areas. Current urban tree cover mitigates 41–49% of the maximum potential air-temperature urban heat island that would occur in the absence of tree canopy. Tree canopy reduces summer air temperature by a population-weighted mean of 0.15 ± 0.03 °C, with wide variation (0.0–2.7 °C), benefiting 914 (805–1040, 95% CI) million people by >0.25 °C. Cooling benefits are greater in already cooler areas: high-income countries and suburbs. Current and plausible future tree cover mitigate only ~10% (6.7–18% and 6.3–17%, respectively) of the median mid-century climate-change warming under a moderate emission scenario. Our results suggest tree canopy expansion in densely settled low-income urban areas is necessary for equitable urban heat island mitigation and climate adaptation.

McDonald, Robert I. [The Nature Conservancy (TNC),↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lake sediment heatwaves under global warming

Lake sediment heatwaves, driven by rising global temperatures, pose emerging threats to freshwater ecosystems by altering sediment thermal regimes and intensifying sediment biogeochemical processes. Here we present a global-scale assessment of lake sediment heatwaves, examining their historical patterns and projecting future trends under various climate scenarios in 41,499 representative lakes worldwide. Using daily simulated lake sediment temperatures from 1981 to 2010 and future (2071-2100) projections under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585), we investigate lake sediment heatwave characteristics, including their duration, intensity, frequency, and seasonal timing, worldwide. Our results show that lake sediment heatwaves are generally more persistent and frequent than lake surface heatwaves, with sediment heatwaves in pelagic regions experiencing a significant lag relative to surface conditions. Under future climate scenarios, sediment heatwaves are projected to intensify, with their duration and frequency increasing substantially, particularly under SSP585. These shifts could exacerbate the production of greenhouse gases like methane and increase sediment respiration rates in lakes. This study highlights the need to account for sediment heatwaves in freshwater ecosystem management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate future impacts.

Limnology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Urban agrivoltaics enhance crop resilience and food-energy synergies in a changing climate

Urban agrivoltaics, the synergistic integration of solar photovoltaics with urban agriculture, offers a transformative solution to food and energy insecurity, which are major barriers to sustainable urban development, especially in low-income urban areas facing intensified heat and water stress due to climate change. With 70% of the global population projected to live in cities by 2050, maximizing underutilized urban spaces is critical. Our study presents the first evaluation of ground-based agrivoltaics in an urban context, demonstrating that, while early-season yields may decline due to light reduction in temperate climates, productivity rebounds during periods of extreme heat, extending harvest windows and enhancing crop resilience. As cities seek climate-adaptive infrastructure, converting just a fraction of vacant land and rooftops to urban agrivoltaics can yield significant co-benefits such as generating renewable energy for thousands of households while supplying fresh produce to help alleviate food deserts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Back-to-back high category atmospheric river landfalls occur more often on the west coast of the United States

Abstract The catastrophic December 2022-January 2023 nine atmospheric rivers in California underscore the urgent need to better understand such high-risk weather extremes. Here we applied a machine learning clustering tool to understand the activity of atmospheric river clusters. Reanalysis results show that clusters with high density, that is the time fraction under atmospheric river conditions within a cluster, exhibit more frequent high-category atmospheric rivers, alongside an increased likelihood for extreme precipitation and severe land surface responses. The key circulation patterns of atmospheric river clusters are primarily attributed to subseasonal variability. Furthermore, the occurrence and density of atmospheric river clusters are modulated by the daily variability of the geopotential height field. Climate model projections suggest that atmospheric river clusters with higher density and higher categories will be more frequent as warming level increases. Our findings emphasize the important role of atmospheric river clusters in the development of climate adaptation and resilience strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global divergence in urban demographic change and migration patterns

Cities are central to economic development, climate adaptation and social stability, yet globally consistent evidence on how city populations are changing remains limited. Here we analyze annual age- and sex-structured population estimates for more than 10,000 cities worldwide from 2000 to 2020 and show that urban demographic change was highly uneven. Globally, the ratio of children and older adults to working-age adults declined from 0.87 to 0.59, but smaller cities remained consistently younger than larger cities, especially in Africa. We also find pronounced spatial variation in urban sex ratios, including strong male surpluses in parts of the Middle East and North Africa, consistent with patterns of labor migration. Finally, we estimate that 45% of urban population growth was attributable to net migration and 55% to natural increase. These results show that national averages can obscure substantial differences between cities, and highlight the value of globally consistent city-level demographic estimates for understanding regional demographic change and informing locally tailored urban planning.

development studies↗
DOE OSTI2024

California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term “snow deluge” and use anomalously high snowpack in California’s Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California’s 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges—which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event—are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Marshall, Adrienne M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

sup3ruhi (Super Resolution for Renewable Resource Data and Urban Heat Islands) [SWR-25-05]

Urban heat is a growing concern, particularly in dense metropolitan areas where high temperatures increase the risk of heat-related illness and drive energy expenses for cooling. Estimating the effects of urban heat remains a challenge due to limitations in describing the built environment, computational constraints, and the need for high-resolution data. This software presents open-source, computationally efficient machine learning methods that enhance the accuracy of urban temperature estimates compared to historical reanalysis data. Models trained using this software have been applied to urban microclimates in Los Angeles and Seattle showing greater accuracy and less bias when compared to low-resolution reanalysis datasets like ERA5 and even when compared to high-resolution mesoscale numerical weather models like WRF with an urban canopy model. Initial findings highlight how machine learning can support urban heat resilience planning by enabling improved assessments of local heat islands, mitigation strategies, and their energy implications. This software is an extension of (sup3r). This software supports the following publication: Buster, Grant, et al. Tackling Extreme Urban Heat: A Machine Learning Approach to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and the Efficacy of Climate Adaptation Strategies in Urban Microclimates. arXiv:2411.05952, arXiv, 8 Nov. 2024. arXiv.org, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2411.05952. And has related public data records available at: Buster, Grant, Cox, Jordan, Benton, Brandon, and King, Ryan. Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data and Urban Heat Islands (Sup3rUHI). United States: N.p., 16 Oct, 2024. Web. https://data.openei.org/submissions/6220.

Buster, Grant [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report series: finding of effect and mitigation documentation for the mercury solar photovoltaic array and battery energy storage system, area 23, nevada national security site, nye county, nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) proposes to install solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation arrays and an associated battery energy storage system (BESS) for the town of Mercury at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (Figure 1). The purposes of the development of this facility are to support long-term efforts to modernize Mercury and to provide energy-resilient infrastructure and address climate adaptation needs. Because it is within the boundary of the Mercury Historic District (MHD), it is subject to the terms of the Programmatic Agreement Between the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office and the Nevada State Historic Preservation Officer Regarding Modernization and Operational Maintenance of the Nevada National Security Site, at Mercury in Nye County, Nevada (hereafter referred to as the Mercury PA). An identification and evaluation report prepared for this undertaking determined that a contributing element to the MHD, the Mercury airstrip (26NY15777), is within the APE (Haynes 2024). The Mercury airstrip was developed following the closure of Camp Desert Rock in 1957 and used until late 1963 or 1964 when the Camp Desert Rock Airport was renovated, and the Mercury Bypass road constructed. The town of Mercury and the immediate surrounding area have been determined eligible for listing in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP) as the MHD (SHPO Resource No. D230) under Criteria A and C for its importance in supporting nuclear testing and scientific research from 1951 through 1992 (Reed 2019). Originally recorded in 2016, 26NY15777 was determined individually not eligible for listing in the NRHP because it lacked sufficient integrity to convey its significance (Palmer 2016). It was subsequently determined in 2018 to be a contributing element of the MHD in an architectural survey of the district (Palmer 2018) and identified in Appendix C of the Mercury PA as a Category I contributing element. However, as per Stipulation IV.B.2, because the airstrip had already been formally evaluated and determined not to be individually eligible for the NRHP in consultation with the SHPO, this categorization was an error. NNSA/NFO reported this to the SHPO in Haynes 2024 and the SHPO concurred on June 11, 2024 (Reed). Accordingly, the airstrip is a Category II Property for the purposes of complying with the Mercury PA. The Mercury airstrip is a historic property for the purposes of compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) and subject to the stipulations of the Mercury PA.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification and evaluation for the mercury solar photovoltaic array and battery energy storage system, area 23, nevada national security site, nye county, nevada

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in conjunction with the National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO), proposes to construct a solar photovoltaic (PV) energy generation array and an associated Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) in the town of Mercury at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada. The purposes of the development of this facility are to support long-term efforts to modernize Mercury and to provide energy-resilient infrastructure and climate adaptation needs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Interplay Between Climate and Urban Expansion on Building Energy Demand in Morocco

Understanding building energy demand is critical for addressing climate uncertainty challenges and ensuring sustainable urban growth. This study develops a building energy demand (BED) model to explore how climate variation and urban expansion affect residential and commercial space heating and cooling demands in Morocco for three scenarios, namely, 2005, 2018, and 2018 + 1.5 °C. The results show that coastal cities have lower heating and cooling needs due to the oceanic influence, while interior cities require significantly higher heating demand per-unit-floorspace. Between 2005 and 2018, urban growth increased total heating and cooling demand by 218.8 GWh, particularly in northern and coastal regions, despite per-unit-floorspace reductions in milder climates and improved building efficiency in 2018. Residential heating remains the dominant energy use, though commercial demand is significant in urban centers. Under the 2018 + 1.5 °C hypothetical scenario, heating demand across Morocco declines by 335.8 GWh compared to 2018, with urban areas amplifying this trend. Meanwhile, cooling demand increases slightly by 44.4 GWh, with major cities experiencing relative increases of up to 50%. These findings highlight a trade-off where reduced winter heating needs are partly offset by increased summer cooling demands in densely urbanized areas. In conclusion, the study identifies key urban hotspots for targeted interventions, emphasizing the need for energy-efficient building designs, climate-adaptive urban planning, and resilient energy management strategies to sustainably address shifting seasonal energy patterns.

Morocco↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA's GreenLab Research Facility: A Guide for a Self-Sustainable Renewable Energy Ecosystem

There is a large gap between the production and demand for energy from alternative fuel and alternative renewable energy sources. The sustainability of humanity, as we know it, directly depends on the ability to secure affordable fuel, food, and freshwater. NASA Glenn Research Center (Glenn) has initiated a laboratory pilot study on using biofuels as viable alternative fuel resources for the field of aviation, as well as utilizing wind and solar technology as alternative renewable energy resources. The GreenLab Research Facility focuses on optimizing biomass feedstock using algae and halophytes as the next generation of renewable aviation fuels. The unique approach in this facility helps achieve optimal biomass feedstock through climatic adaptation of balanced ecosystems that do not use freshwater, compete with food crops, or use arable land. In addition, the GreenLab Research Facility is powered, in part, by alternative and renewable energy sources, reducing the major environmental impact of present electricity sources. The ultimate goal is to have a 100 percent clean energy laboratory that, when combined with biomass feedstock research, has the framework in place for a self-sustainable renewable energy ecosystem that can be duplicated anywhere in the world and can potentially be used to mitigate the shortage of food, fuel, and water. This paper describes the GreenLab Research Facility at Glenn and its power and energy sources, and provides recommendations for worldwide expansion and adoption of the facility s concept.

Bomani, B. M. McDowell↗
NASA NTRS2012

Investigating the Potential Range Expansion of the Vector Mosquito Aedes Aegypti in Mexico with NASA Earth Science Remote Sensing Results

In tropical and sub ]tropical regions, the mosquito Aedes aegypti is the major vector for the virus causing dengue, a serious public health issue in these areas. Through ongoing NSF- and NASA-funded studies, field surveys of Aedes aegypti and an integrated modeling approach are being used to improve our understanding of the potential range of the mosquito to expand toward heavily populated high elevation areas such as Mexico City under various climate change and socio ]economic scenarios. This work serves three primary objectives: (1) Employ NASA remotely-sensed data to supplement the environmental monitoring and modeling component of the project. These data-- for example, surface temperature, precipitation, vegetation indices, soil moisture and elevation-- are critical for understanding the habitat necessary for mosquito survival and abundance; (2) Implement training sessions to instruct scientists and students from Mexico and the U.S. on how to use remote sensing and implement the NASA SERVIR Regional Visualization and Monitoring System; (3) Employ the SERVIR framework to optimize the dissemination of key project results in order to increase their societal relevance and benefits in developing climate adaptation strategies. Field surveys of larval, pupal and adult Aedes aegypti, as well as detailed physical and social household characteristics, were conducted in the summers of 2011and 2012 at geographic scales from the household to the community along a transect from sea level to 2400 m ASL. These data are being used in models to estimate Aedes aegypti habitat suitability. In 2011, Aedes aegypti were identified at an elevation of over 2150 m in Puebla, the highest elevation at which this species has been observed.

Crosson, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County

Presentation by Cristina Milesi, First Author, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA at the "Meeting the Challenge of Sea Level Rise in Santa Clara County" on June 19, 2005 Santa Clara County, bordering with the southern portion of the San Francisco Bay, is highly vulnerable to flooding and to sea level rise (SLR). In this presentation, the latest sea level rise projections for the San Francisco Bay will be discussed in the context of extreme water height frequency and extent of flooding vulnerability. I will also present preliminary estimations of levee requirements and possible mitigation through tidal restoration of existing salt ponds. The examples will draw mainly from the work done by the NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators at NASA Ames.

Sea Level↗
NASA NTRS2016

In Situ Air Temperature and Humidity Measurements Over Diverse Land Covers in Greenbelt, Maryland, November 2013-November 2015

As our climate changes through time there is an ever-increasing need to quantify how and where it is changing so that mitigation strategies can be implemented. Urban areas have a disproportionate amount of warming due, in part, to the conductive properties of concrete and asphalt surfaces, surface albedo, heat capacity, lack of water, etc. that make up an urban environment. The NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigation working group at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD, conducted a study to collect temperature and humidity data at 15 min intervals from 12 sites at the center. These sites represent the major surface types at the center: asphalt, building roof, grass field, forest, and rain garden. The data show a strong distinction in the thermal properties of these surfaces at the center and the difference between the average values for the center compared to a local meteorological station. The data have been submitted to Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL-DAAC) for archival in comma separated value (csv) file format (Carroll et al.,2016) and can be found by following this link: http:daac.ornl.govcgi-bindsviewer.pl?ds_id1319.

Carroll, Mark L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Aboveground carbon loss associated with the spread of ghost forests as sea levels rise

Coastal forests sequester and store more carbon than their terrestrial counterparts but are at greater risk of conversion due to sea level rise. Saltwater intrusion from sea level rise converts freshwater-dependent coastal forests to more salt-tolerant marshes, leaving 'ghost forests' of standing dead trees behind. Although recent research has investigated the drivers and rates of coastal forest decline, the associated changes in carbon storage across large extents have not been quantified. We mapped ghost forest spread across coastal North Carolina, USA, using repeat Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) surveys, multi-temporal satellite imagery, and field measurements of aboveground biomass to quantify changes in aboveground carbon. Between 2001 and 2014, 15% (167 km2) of unmanaged public land in the region changed from coastal forest to transition-ghost forest characterized by salt-tolerant shrubs and herbaceous plants. Salinity and proximity to the estuarine shoreline were significant drivers of these changes. This conversion resulted in a net aboveground carbon decline of 0.13 ± 0.01 TgC. Because saltwater intrusion precedes inundation and influences vegetation condition in advance of mature tree mortality, we suggest that aboveground carbon declines can be used to detect the leading edge of sea level rise. Aboveground carbon declines along the shoreline were offset by inland aboveground carbon gains associated with natural succession and forestry activities like planting (2.46 ± 0.25 TgC net aboveground carbon across study area). Our study highlights the combined effects of saltwater intrusion and land use on aboveground carbon dynamics of temperate coastal forests in North America. By quantifying the effects of multiple interacting disturbances, our measurement and mapping methods should be applicable to other coastal landscapes experiencing saltwater intrusion. As sea level rise increases the landward extent of inundation and saltwater exposure, investigations at these large scales are requisite for effective resource allocation for climate adaptation. In this changing environment, human intervention, whether through land preservation, restoration, or reforestation, may be necessary to prevent aboveground carbon loss.

ghost forests↗
NASA NTRS2022

Scientist-Stakeholder Relationships Drive Carbon Data Product Transfer Effectiveness within NASA Program

Carbon cycle science is at the heart of research on global climate change and its long-term impacts, as it examines the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and the impact of fossil fuel emissions on this cycling. Given the urgency of the climate challenge, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) requires all funded investigators to identify and work with stakeholder organizations at project inception to accelerate the transfer of the products developed by funded research into decision making systems. In this study, we contribute to the literature through the implementation of a quantitative analysis of 908 unique survey responses from funded investigators to explore the maturity of the scientist-stakeholder engagement. The paper employs multiple correspondence analysis to provide evidence to support policy options to increase stakeholder integration into research programs. Despite limitations of the dataset used, we demonstrated that multiple funding rounds, long-standing relationships between the stakeholder and scientist, and the scientific productivity of the PI, including the ability to produce datasets and research papers on these datasets, all contribute to carbon products moving from research to operational use. The maturity of relationships between scientists and stakeholders was shown to result improved stakeholder engagement. The use of carbon products should be identified in every stage of the program, and that capacity building is needed to support both existing and newly identified stakeholders better understand and use CMS products. As Federal, State, and local policy on climate adaptation and mitigation matures, the need for information on carbon will expand. Building of stakeholder-scientist relationships in CMS results in an effective generation and use of datasets to support this need and prototype ways that improved information needed for decision making can be created.

Monitoring↗