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At least 73 records · Page 4

The Contribution of the Solcon Instrument to the Long Term Total Solar Irradiance Observation

On century time scales, the variation in the total solar irradiance received by the earth is believed to be a major climate change driver. Therefore accurate and time stable measurements of the total solar irradiance are necessary. We present the latest contribution of the SOLar CONstant (SOLCON) instrument to these measurements, namely its measurements during the International Extreme Ultraviolet Hitchhiker (IEH) 3 space shuttle flight, and its results: the verification of the ageing of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), and the measurement of the Space Absolute Radiometric Reference (SARR) adjustment coefficients for the Variability of solar IRradiance and Gravity Oscillations (VIRGO) radiometers.

Dewitte, S.↗

Leonardo-BRDF: A New Generation Satellite Constellation

Instantaneous net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere is one of the primary drivers of climate and global change. Since the dawn of the satellite era, great efforts and expense have gone into measuring this flux from single satellites and even (for a several-year period) from a constellation of three satellites called ERBE. However, the reflected solar flux is an angular and spectral integral over the so-called "BRDF" or Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function, which is the angular distribution of reflected solar radiation for each solar zenith angle and each wavelength. Previous radiation flux satellites could not measure instantaneous BRDF, so scientists have had to fall back on models or composites. Because their range of observed solar zenith angles was very limited due to sunsynchronous orbits, the resultant flux maps are too inaccurate to see the dynamics of radiation flux or to reliably correlate it with specific phenomena (hurricanes, biomass fires, urban pollution, dust outbreaks, etc.). Accuracy only becomes acceptable after monthly averaging, but this washes out almost all cause-and-effect information, further exacerbated by the lack of spectral resolution. Leonardo-BRDF is a satellite system designed to measure the instantaneous spectral BRDF using a formation of highly coordinated satellites, all pointing at the same Earth targets at the same time. It will allow scientists for the first time to assess the radiative forcing of climate due to specific phenomena, which is bound to be important in the ongoing debate about global warming and what is causing it. The formation is composed of two satellite types having, as instrument payloads, single highly-integrated miniature imaging spectrometers or radiometers. Two nearby "keystone" satellites anchor the formation and fly in static orbits. They employ wide field of view imaging spectrometers that are extremely light and compact. The keystone satellites are identical and can operate in alongtrack or cross-track mode, or anything in between, at ground command. This provides inherent system redundancy and cross-calibration capability. Several "wing-man" satellites in non-static orbits fly in formation up to 1000 km out from the keystone satellites to provide additional along- and cross-track angular sampling. They view the target(s) observed by the keystone satellites from different zenith and azimuth angles and are maneuverable within a limited range of zenith angle using thrusters, and within a large range of azimuth angle using clever orbit design. The wing-man satellites carry single miniature imaging radiometers with just a few wavelength bands in order to be lighter and more agile.

Esper, Jaime↗

The Stellar Imager (SI) Mission Concept

The Stellar Imager (SI) is envisioned as a space-based, UV-optical interferometer composed of 10 or more one-meter class elements distributed with a maximum baseline of 0.5 approximately km. It will image stars and binaries with one hundred to one thousand resolution elements on their surface and enable long-term studies of stellar magnetic activity patterns and their evolution with time, for comparison with those on the sun. It will also sound their interiors through asteroseismology to image internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations. SI will enable us to understand the various effects of magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate these fields, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars in which these dynamos operate. The ultimate goal of the mission is to achieve the best possible forecasting of solar activity as a driver of climate and space weather on times scales ranging from months to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on astrobiology and life in the Universe. The road to that goal will revolutionize our understanding of stars and stellar systems, the building blocks of the Universe. Fitting naturally within the NASA and ESA long-term time lines, SI complements defined missions, and with them will show us entire other solar systems, from the central star to their orbiting planets. In this paper we will describe the scientific goals of the mission, the performance requirements needed to address those goals, and the design concepts now under study.

Carpenter, Kenneth S.↗

The Stellar Imager (SI) Mission Concept

The Stellar Imager (SI) is envisioned as a space-based, UV-optical interferometer composed of 10 or more one-meter class elements distributed with a maximum baseline of 0.5 km. It is designed to image stars and binaries with sufficient resolution to enable long-term studies of stellar magnetic activity patterns, for comparison with those on the sun. It will also support asteroseismology (acoustic imaging) to probe stellar internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations. SI will enable us to understand the various effects of the magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate these fields, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars. The ultimate goal of the mission is to achieve the best-possible forecasting of solar activity as a driver of climate and space weather on time scales ranging from months up to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on life in the Universe. In this paper we describe the scientific goals of the mission, the performance requirements needed to address these goals, the "enabling technology" development efforts being pursued, and the design concepts now under study for the full mission and a possible pathfinder mission.

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗

The Stellar Imager (SI): An Ultra-High Angular Resolution UV/Optical Observatory

The Stellar Imager (SI) is envisioned as a space-based, UV-optical interferometer composed of 10 or more one-meter class elements distributed with a maximum baseline of 0.5-km and providing a resolution of 60 micro-arcseconds at 1550 A. It will image stars and binaries with one hundred to one thousand resolution elements on their surface and enable long-term studies of stellar magnetic activity patterns and their evolution with time, for comparison with those on the sun. It will also sound their interiors through asteroseismology to image internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations. SI will enable us to understand the various effects of magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate these fields, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars in which these dynamos operate. The ultimate goal of the mission is to achieve the best-possible forecasting of solar activity as a driver of climate and space weather on times scales ranging from months up to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on life in the Universe. The road to that goal will revolutionize our understanding of stars and stellar systems, the building blocks of the Universe. Fitting naturally within the NASA and ESA long-term time lines, SI complements defined missions, and with them will show us entire other solar systems, from the central star to their orbiting planets. In this paper we will describe the scientific goals of the mission, the performance requirements needed to address those goals, and the design concepts now under study.

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗

The Stellar Imager (SI) Mission Concept: Imaging the Surfaces and Interiors of Other Stars

The Stellar Imager (SI) is envisioned as a space-based, uv-optical interferometer composed of 10 or more one-meter class elements distributed with a maximum. baseline of 0.5-km and providing a resolution of 60 micro-arcseconds at 1550 A. It will image stars and binaries with one hundred to one thousand resolution elements on their surface and enable long-term studies of stellar magnetic activity patterns and their evolution with time, for comparison with those on the sun. It will also sound their interiors through asteroseismology to image internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations. SI will enable us to understand the various effects of magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate these fields, and the internal structure and dynamic the stars in which these dynamos operate. The ultimate goal of the mission is to achieve the best-possible forecasting of solar activity as a driver of climate and space weather on times scales ranging from months up to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on life in the universe. The road to that goal will revolutionize our understanding of stars and stellar systems, the building blocks of the universe. Fitting naturally within the NASA and ESA long-term time lines, SI complements defined missions, and with them will show us entire other solar systems, from the central star to their orbiting planets. in this paper we describe the scientific goals of the mission, the performance requirements needed to address those goals, and the design concepts now under study.

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗

Formation Flying and the Stellar Imager Mission Concept

The Stellar Imager (SI) is envisioned as a space-based, W-optical interferometer composed of 10 or more one-meter class elements distributed with a maximum baseline of 0.5 km. image stars and binaries with sufficient resolution to enable long-term studies of stellar magnetic activity patterns, for comparison with those on the sun. It will also support asteroseismology (acoustic imaging) to probe stellar internal structure, differential rotation, and large-scale circulations. SI will enable us to understand the various effects of the magnetic fields of stars, the dynamos that generate these fields, and the internal structure and dynamics of the stars. The ultimate goal of the mission is to achieve the best-possible forecasting of solar activity as a driver of climate and space weather on time scales ranging from months up to decades, and an understanding of the impact of stellar magnetic activity on life in the Universe. In this paper we briefly describe the scientific goals of the mission, the performance requirements needed to address these goals, and the "enabling technology" development efforts required, with specific attention for this meeting to the formation-flying aspects. It is designed to

Carpenter, Kenneth G.↗

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO)

CO2 is the principal human generated driver of climate change. Accurate forecasting of future climate requires an improved understanding of the global carbon cycle and its interaction with the climate system. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) will make global, space-based observations of atmospheric CO2 with the precision, resolution, and coverage needed to understand sources and sinks. OCO data will provide critical information for decision makers including the scientific basis for policy formulation, guide for carbon management strategies and treaty monitoring.

OCO↗

Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, PR Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

Dengue virus is transmitted between humans and mosquitoes of the genus Aedes and causes approximately 96 million cases of disease (dengue fever) each year (Bhatet al. 2013). Symptoms of dengue fever include fever, headache, nausea, vomiting, and eye, muscle and joint pain (CDC). More sever manifestations such as abdominal pain, bleeding from nose and gums, vomiting of blood, and clammy skin occur in rare cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever (CDC). Dengue fever occurs throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide, however, the geographical range and size of epidemics is increasing. Weather and climate are drivers of dengue virus transmission dynamics (Morin et al. 2013) by affecting mosquito proliferation and the virus extrinsic incubation period (i.e. required time for the virus to replicate and disseminate within the mosquito before it can retransmit the virus).

vector↗

Chapter 15: Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements

The Earth system is made up of many components that interact in complex ways across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. As a result of these interactions the behavior of the system cannot be predicted by looking at individual components in isolation. Negative feedbacks, or self-stabilizing cycles, within and between components of the Earth system can dampen changes (Ch. 2: Physical Drivers of Climate Change). However, their stabilizing effects render such feedbacks of less concern from a risk perspective than positive feedbacks, or self-reinforcing cycles. Positive feedbacks magnify both natural and anthropogenic changes. Some Earth system components, such as arctic sea ice and the polar ice sheets, may exhibit thresholds beyond which these self-reinforcing cycles can drive the component, or the entire system, into a radically different state. Although the probabilities of these state shifts may be difficult to assess, their consequences could be high, potentially exceeding anything anticipated by climate model projections for the coming century.

Kopp, R. E.↗

Climate Change Decouples Drought from Early Wine Grape Harvests in France

Across the world, wine grape phenology has advanced in recent decades, in step with climate-change-induced trends in temperature - the main driver of fruit maturation - and drought. Fully understanding how climate change contributes to changes in harvest dates, however, requires analysing wine grape phenology and its relationship to climate over a longer-term context, including data predating anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Here, we investigate the climatic controls of wine grape harvest dates from 1600-2007 in France and Switzerland using historical harvest and climate data. Early harvests occur with warmer temperatures (minus 6 days per degree Centigrade) and are delayed by wet conditions (plus 0.07 days per millimeter; plus 1.68 days per PDSI (Palmer drought severity index)) during spring and summer. In recent decades (1981-2007), however, the relationship between harvest timing and drought has broken down. Historically, high summer temperatures in Western Europe, which would hasten fruit maturation, required drought conditions to generate extreme heat. The relationship between drought and temperature in this region, however, has weakened in recent decades and enhanced warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases can generate the high temperatures needed for early harvests without drought. Our results suggest that climate change has fundamentally altered the climatic drivers of early wine grape harvests in France, with possible ramifications for viticulture management and wine quality.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel Study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

environment effects↗

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

The Sun, Its Extended Corona, the Interplanetary Space, the Earth's Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Middle and Low Atmosphere, are All Parts of a Complex System - the Heliosphere

Various manifestations of solar activity cause disturbances known as space weather effects in the interplanetary space, near-Earth environment, and all the Earth's "spheres. Longterm variations in the frequency, intensity and relative importance of the manifestations of solar activity are due to the slow changes in the output of the solar dynamo, and they define space climate. Space climate governs long-term variations in geomagnetic activity and is the primary natural driver of terrestrial climate. To understand how the variable solar activity affects the Earth's environment, geomagnetic activity and climate on both short and long time scales, we need to understand the origins of solar activity itself and its different manifestations, as well as the sequence of coupling processes linking various parts of the system. This session provides a forum to discuss the chain of processes and relations from the Sun to the Earth's surface: the origin and long-term and short-term evolution of solar activity, initiation and temporal variations in solar flares, CMEs, coronal holes, the solar wind and its interaction with the terrestrial magnetosphere, the ionosphere and its connection to the neutral dominated regions below and the plasma dominated regions above, the stratosphere, its variations due to the changing solar activity and its interactions with the underlying troposphere, and the mechanisms of solar influences on the lower atmosphere on different time-scales. Particularly welcome are papers highlighting the coupling processes between the different domains in this complex system.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗

Irrigation Requirement Estimation using MODIS Vegetation Indices and Inverse Biophysical Modeling; A Case Study for Oran, Algeria

Human demand for food influences the water cycle through diversion and extraction of fresh water needed to support agriculture. Future population growth and economic development alone will substantially increase water demand and much of it for agricultural uses. For many semi-arid lands, socio-economic shifts are likely to exacerbate changes in climate as a driver of future water supply and demand. For these areas in particular, where the balance between water supply and demand is fragile, variations in regional climate can have potentially predictable effect on agricultural production. Satellite data and biophysically-based models provide a powerful method to quantify the interactions between local climate, plant growth and water resource requirements. In irrigated agricultural lands, satellite observations indicate high vegetation density while the precipitation amount indicates otherwise. This inconsistency between the observed precipitation and the observed canopy leaf density triggers the possibility that the observed high leaf density is due to an alternate source of water, irrigation. We explore an inverse process approach using observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), climatological data, and the NASA's Simple Biosphere model, SiB2, to quantitatively assess water demand in a semi-arid agricultural land by constraining the carbon and water cycles modeled under both equilibrium (balance between vegetation and prevailing local climate) and nonequilibrium (water added through irrigation) conditions. We postulate that the degree to which irrigated lands vary from equilibrium conditions is related to the amount of irrigation water used. We added water using two distribution methods: The first method adds water on top of the canopy and is a proxy for the traditional spray irrigation. The second method allows water to be applied directly into the soil layer and serves as proxy for drip irrigation. Our approach indicates that over the study site, for the month of July, spray irrigation resulted in an irrigation amount of about 1.4 mm per occurrence with an average frequency of occurrence of 24.6 hours. The simulated total monthly irrigation for July was 34.85 mm. In contrast, the drip irrigation resulted in less frequent irrigation events with an average water requirement about 57% less than that simulated during the spray irrigation case. The efficiency of the drip irrigation method rests on its reduction of the canopy interception loss compared to the spray irrigation method. When compared to a country-wide average estimate of irrigation water use, our numbers are quite low. We would have to revise the reported country level estimates downward to 17% or less

Bounoua, L.↗

The Glory Program: Global Science from a Unique Spacecraft Integration

The Glory program is an Earth and Solar science mission designed to broaden science community knowledge of the environment. The causes and effects of global warming have become a concern in recent years and Glory aims to contribute to the knowledge base of the science community. Glory is designed for two functions: one is solar viewing to monitor the total solar irradiance and the other is observing the Earth s atmosphere for aerosol composition. The former is done with an active cavity radiometer, while the latter is accomplished with an aerosol polarimeter sensor to discern atmospheric particles. The Glory program is managed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) with Orbital Sciences in Dulles, VA as the prime contractor for the spacecraft bus, mission operations, and ground system. This paper will describe some of the more unique features of the Glory program including the integration and testing of the satellite and instruments as well as the science data processing. The spacecraft integration and test approach requires extensive analysis and additional planning to ensure existing components are successfully functioning with the new Glory components. The science mission data analysis requires development of mission unique processing systems and algorithms. Science data analysis and distribution will utilize our national assets at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the University of Colorado's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP). The Satellite was originally designed and built for the Vegetation Canopy Lidar (VCL) mission, which was terminated in the middle of integration and testing due to payload development issues. The bus was then placed in secure storage in 2001 and removed from an environmentally controlled container in late 2003 to be refurbished to meet the Glory program requirements. Functional testing of all the components was done as a system at the start of the program, very different from a traditional program. The plan for Glory is to minimize any changes to the spacecraft in order to meet the Glory requirements. This means that the instrument designs must adhere to the existing interfaces and capabilities as much as possible. Given Glory's unique history and the potential science return, the program is one of significant value to both the science community and the world. The findings Glory promises will improve our understanding of the drivers for global climate change for a minimal investment. The program hopes to show that reuse of existing government assets can result in a lower cost, and fully successful mission.

Bajpayee Jaya↗

Plant responses to rising vapor pressure deficit

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure deficit (VPD). VPD has been identified as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought‐induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next‐generation’ land‐surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant‐ and global‐scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long‐term projections of climate impacts can be made.

mortality↗

Future Sea Level Change Under CMIP5 and CMIP6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Antarctica↗