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Machine learning in nuclear materials research

Nuclear materials are often demanded to function for extended time in extreme environments, including high radiation fluxes with associated transmutations, high temperature and temperature gradients, mechanical stresses, and corrosive coolants. They also have a wide range of microstructural and chemical makeups, resulting in multifaceted and often out-of-equilibrium interactions. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being used to tackle these complex time-dependent interactions and aid researchers in developing models and making predictions, sometimes with better accuracy than traditional modeling that focuses on one or two parameters at a time. Conventional practices of acquiring new experimental data in nuclear materials research are often slow and expensive, limiting the opportunity for data-centric ML, but new methods are changing that paradigm. Here we review high-throughput computational and experimental data approaches, especially robotic experimentation and active learning that is based on Gaussian process and Bayesian optimization. We show ML examples in structural materials (e.g., reactor pressure vessel (RPV) alloys and radiation detecting scintillating materials) and highlight new techniques of high-throughput sample preparation and characterizations, and automated radiation/environmental exposures and real-time online diagnostics. Herein, this review suggests that ML models of material constitutive relations in plasticity, damage, and even electronic and optical responses to radiation are likely to become powerful tools as they develop. Finally, we speculate on how the recent trends of using natural language processing (NLP) to aid the collection and analysis of literature data, interpretable artificial intelligence (AI), and the use of streamlined scripting, database, workflow management, and cloud computing platforms that will soon make the utilization of ML techniques as commonplace as the spreadsheet curve-fitting practices of today.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Toward Better Understanding of Microphysical Processes and Resulting Precipitation Physics: A Merger Of Observations and Cloud Models (Final Report)

A large database of global disdrometer observations and a diverse set of simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) were compared using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to better understand warm and ice-based precipitation processes. The analysis demonstrated that six distinct precipitation groups (PGs) with common characteristics were revealed in both the observations and model simulations. These PGs were defined by similar co-variability of rain parameters. However, the model showed large concentrations of drops with a given size compared to the observations. Detailed investigations determined the parameterization of drop breakup was forcing the drops to an equilibrium size with a stronger constraint than was indicated by the observations. A series of sensitivity studies permutating the rain shape parameter in the RAMS 2-moment bulk scheme demonstrated how the assumed shape of the rain distribution influences the microphysics as well as precipitation characteristics. Results were compared to the same simulations performed with a bin microphysics scheme where the rain shape parameter is freely evolving. In the bin scheme, a wide range of shape parameters were found, with horizontal and vertical variability, in addition to being a function of storm lifetime. The results of this study highlight the limitations of a fixed assumed rain distribution in 2-moment microphysics schemes. Model simulations were used to probe the microphysical origins of the six PGs. Rain budgets from a supercell case showed that several of the groups hypothesized to be associated with strong ice microphysical processes had significant contributions from melting hail, but the complexity of ice and warm-rain processes in the supercell precluded definitive determination of microphysical origins for many of the PGs. A case study from the Mid-latitude Continental Convection and Clouds Experiment (MC3E) compared the model PGs to disdrometer observations, and demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the PGs which is not possible from disdrometer point measurements alone. The analyses performed during this project demonstrated how statistical analysis can provide a robust method for comparing model simulations and observations, which ultimately resulted identification of limitations in some current microphysics parameterizations as well as insights into precipitation variability which ultimately benefits both observations and modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Rapidly Developing Low Cloud Ceilings in a Stable Environment

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of days that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). The meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity beneath the inversion, and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (approx. 15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between days with rapid low ceiling formation and days with low ceiling resulting from other mechanism. The AMU found that the vertical wind profile is the probable discerning factor between the rapidly-forming ceiling days and other low ceiling days at TTS. Most rapidly-developing low ceiling days had a clockwise turning of the winds with height, whereas other low ceiling days typically had a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds ceilings below 8000 ft in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment, Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1993-2003 for days that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the morning Cape Canaveral, FL rawinsonde (XMR) during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Days with precipitation or noticeable fog bum-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the daytime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since low clouds are easier to diagnose with visible satellite imagery. Follow-on work would expand the database to include nighttime cases, using a special enhancement of the infrared imagery for identifying areas of low clouds. The report presents two sample cases of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. These cases depict the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The cases also illustrate how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 20 event days with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 48 non-events days consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The meteorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event days, since both types of days experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of days had a relatively moist environment beneath the inversion based below 8000 ft. In the 20 events identified, de onset of low ceilings occurred between 1200-1800 UTC in every instance. The distinguishing factor between the event and non-event days appears to be the vertical wind profile in the XMR sounding. Eighty-five percent of the event days had a clockwise turning of the winds with height in the lower to middle troposphere whereas 83% of the non-events had a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height or negligible vertical wind shear. A clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates a warm advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motn and possible cloud formation. Meanwhile, a counter-clockwise turning of the winds with height indicates cold advection or sinking motion in a post-cold frontal environment.

Wheeler, Mark M.↗

Development of a Scalable Risk-informed Predictive Maintenance Cloud-based Strategy at Nuclear Power Plants

The fact that light-water reactor operation and maintenance costs are prohibitively expensive and contribute to the premature decommissioning of nuclear power plants is partly due to how the equipment is monitored. In recent years, cloud computing has emerged as a dominant technology, as its low cost, computing and storage adaptability, and ability to host applications across numerous virtual infrastructures potentially make it a cost-effective alternative to onsite storage and diagnostics. In this paper, a technological assessment is carried out on a provisional cloud deployment architecture for a nuclear power plant predictive monitoring system. This cloud-based monitoring system would enable maintenance and diagnostic analysts and other authorized plant users to remotely monitor equipment functionality, thus enabling early fault detection and effective predictive maintenance practices. To provide data processing and storage, sensor device networking, and database management, the Microsoft Azure cloud platform is utilized as part of the proposed cloud architecture; however, this analysis could be extended to other cloud computing service providers as well. The focus of this paper is on application of cloud resources for enabling predictive maintenance, identification of technological hurdles associated with moving to a cloud-computing-based architecture, and potential benefits from moving to a centralized cloud system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Case Study Analyses of the SUCCESS DC-8 Scanning Lidar Database

Under project SUCCESS (Subsonic Aircraft Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study) funded by the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Program, SRI International (SRI) developed an angular scanning backscatter lidar for operation on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft and deployed the scanning lidar during the SUCCESS field campaign. The primary purpose of the lidar was to generate real-time video displays of clouds and contrails above, ahead of, and below the DC-8 as a means to help position the aircraft for optimum cloud and contrail sampling by onboard in situ sensors, and to help extend the geometrical domain of the in situ sampling records. A large, relatively complex lidar database was collected and several data examples were processed to illustrate the value of the lidar data for interpreting the other data records collected during SUCCESS. These data examples were used to develop a journal publication for the special SUCCESS Geophysical Research Letters issue. The data examples justified data analyses of a larger part of the DC-8 lidar database and is the objective of the current study. Efficient processing of the SUCCESS DC-8 scanning lidar database required substantial effort to enhance hardware and software components of the data system that was used for the initial analyses. MATLAB instructions are used to generate altitude and distance color-coded lidar displays corrected for effects introduced by aircraft pitch and forward movement during an angular scan time interval. Onboard in situ sensor atmospheric measurements are propagated to distances ahead of the DC-8 using recorded aircraft velocity so that they can be plotted on the lidar displays for comparison with lidar remotely observed aerosol distributions. Resulting lidar and in situ sensor polar scan displays over extended sampling intervals are integrated into a time series movie format for 36 case studies. Contrails and clouds were detected to ranges of 15 km by the forward-viewing angular scanning lidar and were progressively mapped as the aircraft approached and penetrated them. Near aircraft lidar observations were much better correlated with in situ sensor observations than lidar observations at greater distances ahead of the aircraft. The major cause of this difference was thought to be the about 2 deg. offset of the lidar viewing direction from the flight direction. Contrail spatial distributions were not of the quality obtainable from ground-based lidar observations. This results because contrails tend to become horizontally stratified, vertical distance between angular lidar observations increases with increased distance from the aircraft, and erratic aircraft motions during an angular scan. The most useful lidar observations were made with lidar viewing directions of vertically upward or vertically downward. These provided real-time information on aircraft altitudes to achieve optimum in situ cloud and contrail sampling. At sampling altitudes, the forward viewing angular scanning observations were useful for fine-tuning the aircraft altitude for cloud and contrail penetration. Best information on cloud and contrail properties were obtained from vertically directed lidar observations as the aircraft performed a series of upward and downward penetrations of contrails. This operational mode was especially well suited for lidar and radiometric evaluation of cloud and contrail optical and radiative properties. The vertical viewing lidar detected ice crystals thought to be precipitating from an aircraft contrail and their scavenging by a cirrus cloud layer. The lidar display indicates that the crystals are effective for increasing cirrus cloud density. Vertical angular scanning observations can evaluate the sharp decrease in lidar backscatter for small off-vertical viewing directions that result from horizontally aligned ice crystals and perhaps can provide additional information on crystal shapes. The about 2 deg. offset of the lidar viewing direction from the flight direction is thought to have greatly degraded the forward-viewing angular scanning observations and this mode of operation was not fully evaluated. However, the reasoning for this capability remains valid and the angular scan presentations collected during this program justifies modification of the lidar pod for true forward direction lidar viewing during future cloud and contrail studies.

Uthe, Edward E.↗

Case Study Analyses of the Success DC-8 Scanning Lidar Database

Under project SUCCESS (Subsonic Aircraft Contrail and Cloud Effects Special Study) funded by the Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Program, SRI International (SRI) developed an angular scanning back'scatter lidar for operation on the NASA DC-8 research aircraft and deployed the scanning lidar during the SUCCESS field campaign. The primary purpose of the lidar was to generate real-time video displays of clouds and contrails above, ahead of, and below the DC-8 as a means to help position the aircraft for optimum cloud and contrail sampling by onboard in situ sensors, and to help extend the geometrical domain of the in situ sampling records. A large, relatively complex lidar database was collected and several data examples were processed to illustrate the value of the lidar data for interpreting the other data records collected during SUCCESS. These data examples were used to develop a journal publication for the special SUCCESS Geophysical Research Letters issue (reprint presented as Appendix A). The data examples justified data analyses of a larger part of the DC-8 lidar database and is the objective of the current study.

Uthe, Edward E.↗

Stable Low Cloud Phase II: Nocturnal Event Study

This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in developing a database of nights that experienced rapid (< 90 minutes) low cloud formation in a stable atmosphere, resulting in ceilings at the Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) that violated Space Shuttle Flight Rules (FR). This work is the second phase of a similar AMU task that examined the same phenomena during the day. In the first phase of this work, the meteorological conditions favoring the rapid formation of low ceilings include the presence of any inversion below 8000 ft, high relative humidity (RH) beneath the inversion and a clockwise turning of the winds from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15000 ft). The AMU compared and contrasted the atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions between nights with rapid low ceiling formation and nights with low ceilings resulting from other mechanisms. The AMU found that there was little to discern between the rapidly-forming ceiling nights and other low ceiling nights at TTS. When a rapid development occurred, the average RH below the inversions was 87% while non-events had an average RH of 79%. One key parameter appeared to be the vertical wind profile in the Cape Canaveral, FL radiosonde (XMR) sounding. Eighty-three percent of the rapid development events had veering winds with height from the surface to the middle troposphere (-15,000 ft) while 61% of the non-events had veering winds with height. Veering winds indicate a warm-advection regime, which supports large-scale rising motion and ultimately cloud formation in a moist environment. However, only six of the nights (out of 86 events examined) with low cloud ceilings had an occurrence of rapidly developing ceilings. Since only 7% rapid development events were observed in this dataset, it is likely that rapid low cloud development is not a common occurrence during the night, or at least not as common as during the day. In the AMU work on the daytime rapid low cloud development (Case and Wheeler 2005), nearly 30% of the low cloud ceiling cases investigated were identified as rapidly developing events. Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at TTS to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 R in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the AMU was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1994-2005 for nights that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle FR. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the evening and morning XMR radiosonde during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Nights with precipitation or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database. Only the nighttime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since the daytime events were examined in the first phase of this work. The report presents one sample case of rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The case depicts the representative meteorological and thermodynamic characteristics of such events. The case also illustrates how quickly the cloud decks can develop, sometimes forming in 30 minutes or less. The report also summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 6 event nights with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 80 non-events nights consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings. The teorological conditions were quite similar for both the event and non-event nights, since both types of nights experienced low cloud ceilings. Both types of nights had a relatively moist environment beneath an inversion based below 8000 ft.

Bauman, William H., III↗

SU-E-P-05: Electronic Brachytherapy: A Physics Perspective On Field Implementation

Purpose: We want to summarize our experience implementing a successful program of electronic brachytherapy at several dermatology clinics with the help of a cloud based software to help us define the key program parameters and capture physics QA aspects. Optimally developed software helps the physicist in peer review and qualify the physical parameters. Methods: Using the XOFT™ Axxent™ electronic brachytherapy system in conjunction with a cloud-based software, a process was setup to capture and record treatments. It was implemented initially at about 10 sites in California. For dosimetric purposes, the software facilitated storage of the physics parameters of surface applicators used in treatment and other source calibration parameters. In addition, the patient prescription, pathology and other setup considerations were input by radiation oncologist and the therapist. This facilitated physics planning of the treatment parameters and also independent check of the dwell time. From 2013–2014, nearly1500 such calculation were completed by a group of physicists. A total of 800 patients with multiple lesions have been treated successfully during this period. The treatment log files have been uploaded and documented in the software which facilitated physics peer review of treatments per the standards in place by AAPM and ACR. Results: The program model was implemented successfully at multiple sites. The cloud based software allowed for proper peer review and compliance of the program at 10 clinical sites. Dosimtery was done on 800 patients and executed in a timely fashion to suit the clinical needs. Accumulated physics data in the software from the clinics allows for robust analysis and future development. Conclusion: Electronic brachytherapy implementation experience from a quality assurance perspective was greatly enhanced by using a cloud based software. The comprehensive database will pave the way for future developments to yield superior physics outcomes.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

The Volatile Composition of Comet C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) before its Disruption, as Revealed by High-Resolution Infrared Spectroscopy with iSHELL at the NASA/IRTF

In 2017 April, we acquired comprehensive high-resolution spectra of newly discovered comet C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) as it approached perihelion, and before its disintegration. We detected many cometary emission lines in the range (2.8-5.3) μm, in four customized instrument settings (L1-c, L3, Lp1-c, and M1) of iSHELL-the new near-IR high-resolution immersion echelle spectrograph at NASA/IRTF (Maunakea, Hawaii). We identified 12 molecular species: nine primary volatiles (H2O, HCN, NH3, CO, C2H2, C2H6, CH4, CH3OH, H2CO) and three product species (CN, NH2, OH). We detected 85 H2O emission lines from 12 water vibrational bands across L1-c and M1 settings. The many detected water emission lines enabled retrieval of accurate measures for ortho- and para-H2O independently, thereby reducing systematic uncertainty in the derived ortho-para ratio and nuclear spin temperature. Excitation analyses and emission profile analyses were performed for all species, and molecular abundance ratios relative to water are compared with values found for other Oort Cloud comets in our infrared database. Abundance ratios are consistent for most species, with the exception of underabundant methanol and overabundant ammonia in E4.

Faggi, S.↗

The Volatile Composition of Comet C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) Before Its Disruption, as Revealed by High-Resolution Infrared Spectroscopy with iSHELL at the NASA-IRTF

In April 2017, we acquired comprehensive high-resolution spectra of newly-discovered comet C/2017 E4 (Lovejoy) as it approached perihelion, and before its disintegration. We detected many cometary emission lines in the (2.8–5.3)μm range, in four customized instrument settings (L1-c, L3, Lp1-cand M1) of iSHELL -the new near-IR high resolution immersion echelle spectrograph at NASA/IRTF (Maunakea, Hawaii). We identified twelve molecular species; nine primary volatiles (H2O, HCN, NH3, CO, C2H2, C2H6, CH4, CH3OH, H2CO) and three product species (CN, NH2,OH). We detected 85H2O emission lines from 12 water vibrational bands across L1-c and M1 settings. The many detected water emission lines enabled retrieval of accurate measures for ortho-and para-H2O independently, thereby reducing systematic uncertainty in the derived ortho-para ratio and nuclear spin temperature. Excitation analyses and emission profile analyses were performed for all species, and molecular abundance ratios relative to water are compared with values found for other Oort Cloud comets in our infrared database. Abundance ratios are consistent for most species, with the exception of under-abundant methanol and over-abundant ammonia in E4.

S. Faggi↗

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of WRF-Solar Cloud Forecast Using the NSRDB: Preprint

Cloud forecast is a crucial component in predicting solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Assessing cloud properties from the NWP models requires significant work due to the need for high-quality data, spatial analysis covering model extent, and detailed analysis of model performance for different types of clouds. This study presents an evaluation of the WRF-Solar cloud forecast using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). We propose an evaluation framework applied to a single model prediction as well as ensemble-based forecasts. Various cloud detection metrics are calculated when comparing with the satellite-derived dataset. The mismatched clouds from the WRF-Solar model are quantified using nine cloud types classified by cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The results based on the WRF-Solar forecasts covering the entire U.S. for the full year of 2018 shows mismatched cloud frequency in the range of 8% - 46% for thick and high-level (deep convective) to thin and low-level (cumulus) clouds.

cloud mask forecast↗

Analysis of Rapidly Developing Low Cloud Ceilings in a Stable Environment

Forecasters at the Space Meteorology Group (SMG) issue 30 to 90 minute forecasts for low cloud ceilings at the Space Shuttle Landing Facility (TTS) to support Space Shuttle landings. Mission verification statistics have shown ceilings to be the number one forecast challenge for SMG. More specifically, forecasters at SMG are concerned with any rapidly developing clouds/ceilings below 8000 ft in a stable, capped thermodynamic environment. Therefore, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to examine archived events of rapid stable cloud formation resulting in ceilings below 8000 ft, and document the atmospheric regimes favoring this type of cloud development. The AMU examined the cool season months of November to March during the years of 1993-2003 for days that had low-level inversions and rapid, stable low cloud formation that resulted in ceilings violating the Space Shuttle Flight Rules. The AMU wrote and modified existing code to identify inversions from the morning (-10 UTC) Cape Canaveral, FL rawinsonde (XMR) during the cool season and output pertinent sounding information. They parsed all days with cloud ceilings below 8000 ft at TTS, forming a database of possible rapidly-developing low ceiling events. Days with precipitation or noticeable fog burn-off situations were excluded from the database. In the first phase of this work, only the daytime hours were examined for possible ceiling development events since low clouds are easier to diagnose with visible satellite imagery. Phase II of this work includes expanding the database to include nighttime cases which is underway as this abstract is being written. For the nighttime cases, the AMU will analyze both the 00 UTC soundings and the 10 UTC soundings to examine those data for the presence of a low-level inversion. The 00 UTC soundings will probably not have a surface-based inversion, but the presence of inversions or "neutral" layers aloft and below 8,000 ft will most likely help define the stable regime, being a thermodynamically "capped" environment. Occurrences of elevated low-level inversions or stable layers will be highlighted in conjunction with nights that experienced a possible development or onset of cloud ceilings below 8,000 ft. Using these criteria to narrow down the database, the AMU will then use archived IR satellite imagery for these possible events. This presentation summarizes the composite meteorological conditions for 20 daytime event days with rapid low cloud ceiling formation and 48 non-events days consisting of advection or widespread low cloud ceilings and describes two sample cases of daytime rapidly-developing low cloud ceilings. The authors will also summarize the work from the nighttime cases and describe a representative sample case from this data set.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Estimating the Uncertainty in Passive-Microwave Rain-Retrievals

Current passive-microwave rain-retrieval methods are largely based on databases built off-line using cloud models. The vertical distribution of hydrometeors within the cloud has a large impact on upwelling brightness temperatures ([31,[5]). Thus, a forward radiative transfer model can predict off-line the radiance associated with different rain scenarios. To estimate the rain from measured brightness temperatures, one simply looks for the rain scenario whose associated radiances are closest to the measurements. To understand the uncertainties in this process, we first study the dependence of the simulated brightness temperatures on different hydrometeor size distribution (DSD) models. We then analyze the marginal and joint distributions of the radiances observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and of those in the databases used in the TRMM rain retrievals. We finally calculate the covariances of the rain profiles and brightness temperatures in the TRMM passive-microwave database and derive a simple parametric model for the conditional uncertainty, given measured radiances. These results are used to characterize the uncertainty inherent in the passive-microwave retrieval.

Coppens, Dorothee↗