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DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Graph Neural Networks for Collaborative Dynamic Reconfiguration and Voltage Regulation in Unbalanced Distribution Systems

Network reconfiguration has long been employed as a strategic approach to minimize power distribution system losses and effectively regulate voltage levels. Tap-changing voltage regulators are also critical for controlling bus voltages, especially in accommodating the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) with intermittent outputs. This paper introduces novel methodologies to address the challenges of dynamic reconfiguration and optimal tap setting in unbalanced three-phase distribution systems. We propose an approximated mixed-integer quadratically constrained program (MIQCP) to model dynamic reconfiguration, along with a pioneering formulation for voltage regulator (VR) tap-setting based on Special Ordered Set type 1 (SOS1). To mitigate computational complexity, we propose a physics-informed spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) with an integrated link classifier. The proposed approach enables efficient solution generation by fixing specific variables in the MIQCP instance and solving the simplified sub-MIP using an MIP solver. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior prediction accuracy of our STGCN model compared to baseline neural network models, resulting in reduced DER curtailment and voltage deviation with shorter computation time.

dynamic reconfiguration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating High-Frequency Seismograms in Realistic Earth Models to Better Understand Source Discrimination Based on Differential Magnitudes ( M L− M c)

Discriminating low-yield underground nuclear explosions from small earthquakes is a key task in monitoring nuclear test ban treaties. P/S amplitude ratios have been an effective discriminant for moderate-sized events recorded at regional distances, but it is unclear if they are as effective in discriminating small seismic events recorded at local distances (<150 km). The difference between local magnitude (M L ) and coda duration magnitude (M c ) has been proposed as a new discriminant that may complement P/S amplitude ratios at local distances. Here, in this work, we calculate high-frequency (up to ∼4 Hz) synthetic seismograms at epicentral distances of 0–30 km in realistic models of the Salt Lake basin (Utah, United States) to better understand how variations in source type and depth affect M L −M c values. The Earth models incorporate simplified 1D and deterministic 3D structures, small-wavelength stochastic velocity perturbations, and surface topography. Coda waves are enhanced for the more complicated models compared to the base 1D model, but still underpredict observed durations by about a factor of two, which results in overprediction of amplitude to duration ratios (i.e., M L −M c values) for a near-surface explosion and a 7 km deep earthquake. For both source types, the predicted M L and M c values decrease as source depth increases, and M L −M c shows only minor variation with depth; however, M L −M c is on average ∼0.5 units smaller for explosions than earthquakes. This finding may imply that M L −M c has sensitivity to source type, in addition to being a depth discriminant, but more modeling is needed given the limitations of the current study. Future modeling should incorporate higher-frequency (≳5 Hz) simulations over a larger distance range (0–150 km), where M L and M c are commonly measured, while honoring low shear velocities (<300 m/s) near the surface and sampling a wider range of earthquake and explosion source mechanisms.

Hutchings, Sean J. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City,↗

DOE OSTI2024

Teaching Freight Mode Choice Models New Tricks Using Interpretable Machine Learning Methods

Understanding and forecasting the intricate freight mode choice behavior under various industry, policy, and technology contexts is essential in freight planning and policymaking. Numerous models have been developed in prior studies to provide insights into freight mode selection, the majority of which use discrete choice models such as multinomial logit (MNL) models. However, logit models often rely on linear specifications of independent variables, despite potential nonlinear relationships in the data. Moreover, there often lacks a heuristic and efficient approach to identify such complex relationships to define the logit model specifications. To fill this gap, we developed an MNL model for freight mode choice using the insights from state-of-the- art machine learning (ML) models. ML models can capture the nonlinear nature of the complex decision-making process, and recent advances in 'explainable AI' have greatly improved their interpretability. The interpretable ML methods help enhance the performance of MNL models and advance knowledge of freight mode choice. Specifically, the influential factors and their relationship with individual modes are identified using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to improve the MNL's performance. The workflow is demonstrated in a case study of Austin, Texas, and the SHAP results reveal multiple nonlinear relationships predicted by ML models. Incorporating those relationships into MNL model specifications improves the interpretability and accuracy of the MNL model compared to a conventional MNL model. Findings from this study can be used to guide freight planning and inform policymakers and practitioners on how key factors affect freight decision-making.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Tidal Hydrodynamic Model for Cook Inlet, Alaska, to Support Tidal Energy Resource Characterization

Cook Inlet in Alaska has been identified as a prime site in the U.S. for potential tidal energy development, because of its enormous tidal power potential that accounts for nearly one-third of the national total. As one important step to facilitate tidal energy development, a tidal hydrodynamic model based on the unstructured-grid, finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM) was developed for Cook Inlet to characterize the tidal stream energy resource. The model has a grid resolution that varies from about 1000 m at the open boundary to 100–300 m inside the Inlet. Extensive model validation was achieved by comparing model predictions with field observations for tidal elevation and velocity at various locations in Cook Inlet. The error statistics confirmed the model performs reasonably well in capturing the tidal dynamics in the system, e.g., R2 > 0.98 for tidal elevation and generally > 0.9 for velocity. Model results suggest that tides in Cook Inlet evolve from progressive waves at the entrance to standing waves at the upper Inlet, and that semi-diurnal tidal constituents are amplified more rapidly than diurnal constituents. The model output was used to identify hotspots that have high energy potential and warrant additional velocity and turbulence measurements such as East Foreland, where averaged power density exceeds 5 kw/m2. Lastly, a tidal energy extraction simulation was conducted for a hypothetical turbine farm configuration at the Forelands cross section to evaluate tidal energy extraction and resulting changes in far-field hydrodynamics.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Motion of Air Bubbles in a Cement Slurry

The dynamics of air (gas) bubbles in a column of cement slurry is examined numerically. The air injected at the bottom of a laboratory-scale column through a porous distributor plate spatially distributes and migrates as a swarm of bubbles throughout the slurry toward the freeboard. The two-phase system of the cement slurry and the air bubbles is modeled using the conservation equations of mass and linear momentum in the framework of the volume-of-fluid (VOF) approach. The cement slurry is modeled using the Herschel–Bulkley and Bingham fluid models. Results show that the mean Sauter diameter and the mean rise velocity of the bubbles decrease with the gas flow rate. Meanwhile, it is found that the rising of the bubbles is controlled by breakup events, along with relatively weak path instabilities of the bubbles resulting in relatively straight trajectories, independent of the gas flow rate. The extent of the yielded region appears larger for the Herschel–Bulkley model compared to the Bingham fluid model (by approximately 10%).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Meshfree Methods for Modeling Chemo-Mechanical Cathode Cracking in Li-Ion Batteries

Through repeated charging and discharging, the electrodes of a Li-ion battery experience cyclic loading causing swelling and contraction due to the movement of lithium, also known as intercalation. This research focuses specifically on the chemo-mechanical cracking in the cathode. Because cathode particles are comprised of many randomly-oriented grains, which have highly anisotropic material properties, the expansion and contraction is very non-uniform. As a result, stress concentrations tend to form between grains, which necessitates the modeling of crack propagation largely along grain boundaries. Chemo-mechanical models are simulated mainly by two methods: the cohesive zone model (CZM) and the continuous damage model (CDM). The CZM is more accurate at capturing the sharp discontinuities of a crack but is very computationally expensive and intractable for large-scale models as a result. Conversely, the CDM is easily computed but not well-suited to easily allow for discontinuous field variables, which are inherent across a crack. This study aims to improve the CDM's ability to capture discontinuous cracks. Current versions of the CDM use the finite element method (FEM), which is one of the most widely used approaches for spatial discretization. This research investigates the use of the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), a meshfree method, for spatial discretization and aims to achieve a chemo-mechanical crack propagation model that achieves both intermediate accuracy and computational time between a CDM and CZM. To gain a better understanding of how the meshfree model compares to the current FEM model in capturing cathode crack propagation, further investigation is needed.

cathode cracking↗

DOE OSTI2023

Meshfree Multiphysics Damage Modeling of Li-ion Battery Materials

Through repeated charging and discharging cycles, the electrodes of a Li-ion battery experience significant swelling and contraction due to the movement of lithium, also known as intercalation. This research focuses specifically on the chemo-mechanical cracking in the cathode. Because cathode particles are comprised of many randomly-oriented grains, which have highly anisotropic material properties, the expansion and contraction is very non-uniform. As a result, stress concentrations tend to form between grains, which necessitates the modeling of crack propagation largely along grain boundaries and material interfaces. Chemo-mechanical damage models are generally simulated by one of two methods: the cohesive zone model (CZM) and the continuous damage model (CDM). The CZM is more accurate at capturing the sharp discontinuities of a crack but is very computationally expensive and intractable for large-scale models as a result. Conversely, the CDM is easily computed but not well-suited to easily allow for discontinuous field variables, which are inherent across a crack. This study aims to improve the CDM's ability to capture discontinuous cracks. Current versions of the CDM use the finite element method (FEM), which is one of the most widely used approaches for spatial discretization. This research investigates the use of the Reproducing Kernel Particle Method (RKPM), a meshfree method, for spatial discretization and aims to achieve a coupled chemo-mechanical crack propagation model that enhances accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency. This model features a fully coupled, iterative electrochemistry solution, which informs the meshfree damage model of impending crack formation. To gain a better understanding of how the meshfree model compares to the current FEM model in capturing cathode crack propagation, further investigation is needed.

damage modeling↗

DOE OSTI2026

Global gyro-kinetic ion temperature gradient and trapped electron mode turbulence modelling in X -point geometry in negative and positive triangularity

Comparative modelling of ion temperature gradient (ITG)/trapped electron mode (TEM) turbulence in negative (NT) and positive (PT) triangularity plasma shapes was done using the nonlinear global full-f gyrokinetic particle code JOREK-GK in the realistic X-point tokamak geometry including the Scrape Off Layer (SOL) for TCV and DIII-D parameters. A comparison of JOREK-GK code with the gyrokinetic codes GS2 and GENE was done using NT/PT triangularity TCV L-modes parameters showing good agreement between codes in linear growth rates and clear beneficial effect of NT as compared to PT. Global non-linear modelling of the ITG/TEM saturated turbulence for realistic DIII-D NT pulses was done and compared with numerically constructed PT equilibrium with the same plasma profiles. Existence of longer correlation length of density fluctuations in PT compared to NT was demonstrated. Stronger and more sheared zonal flows are generated via Reynolds stress in NT compared to PT. These factors are stabilizing for TEM/ITG turbulence in NT and lead to smaller heat fluxes and heat conductivities in NT compared to PT configuration. Weak dependence of plasma confinement on collisionality and plasma rotation was found in modelling of DIII-D NT shots similar to the experiment. The confinement scaling with normalized ion gyro-radius ρ* was estimated both for NT and PT. Bohm-like scaling was obtained in both configurations, however with better confinement for NT compared to PT which could be favourable factor for reactor size machines.

ITG↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of simulated neutrino emission models with data on Supernova 1987A

Here we compare models of supernova (SN) neutrino emission with the Kamiokande II data on SN 1987A using the Bayesian approach. These models are taken from simulations and are representative of current one-dimensional SN models. We find that models with a brief accretion phase of neutrino emission are the most favored. This result is not affected by varying the overall flux normalization or considering neutrino oscillations. We also check the compatibility of the best-fit models with the data.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model averaging approaches to data subset selection

Model averaging is a useful and robust method for dealing with model uncertainty in statistical analysis. Often, it is useful to consider data subset selection at the same time, in which model selection criteria are used to compare models across different subsets of the data. Two different criteria have been proposed in the literature for how the data subsets should be weighted. We compare the two criteria closely in a unified treatment based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence and conclude that one of them is subtly flawed and will tend to yield larger uncertainties due to loss of information. Here, analytical and numerical examples are provided.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A time‐varying formulation of the curled wake model within the FAST.Farm framework

Abstract In this article, we present a time‐varying formulation of the curled wake model that we implemented in FAST.Farm. The curled wake model, originally developed for steady‐state conditions, is used to produce realistic wake profiles behind a wind turbine in yawed (or skewed) conditions. We begin by introducing the key elements of the FAST.Farm framework. Then, after briefly summarizing the original wake dynamics formulation of FAST.Farm based on a polar wake profile, we present the new time‐varying formulation of the curled wake model, compare the two, and highlight the differences with the original curled wake model. After discussing some implementation details, we present different applications with increasing levels of complexity: single turbine with uniform and turbulent inflow, fixed and transient yaw, and multiple turbines. We verify our results using the original FAST.Farm implementation and large‐eddy simulations. The results with the new curled wake model are improved compared to the original implementation, as they include cross‐flow velocities and wake asymmetry. Yet, large‐eddy simulation results show a more pronounced lateral convection of the wake and a stronger concentration of vorticity at the top vortex. The new curled wake implementation in FAST.Farm should enable the calculation of not only generator power but also wind turbine structural loads for applications involving intentional or unintentional skewed flow and wind‐farm control involving wake steering.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Monte Carlo Framework for Jet-Quenching

This article presents the motivation for developing a comprehensive modeling framework in which different models and parameter inputs can be compared and evaluated for a large range of jet-quenching observables measured in relativistic heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and the LHC. Here, the concept of a framework is discussed within the context of recent efforts by the JET Collaboration, the authors of JEWEL, and the JETSCAPE collaborations. The framework ingredients for each of these approaches is presented with a sample of important results from each. The role of advanced statistical tools in comparing models to data is also discussed, along with the need for a more detailed accounting of correlated errors in experimental results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Urban Land Surface Effects on Summertime Clouds and Moist Convection in Houston Under Different Synoptic Conditions

Urban landscapes modify cloud formation and convection through complex thermodynamic and aerodynamic processes; however, their influence under different synoptic regimes remains poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of the Houston metropolitan area on summertime cloud cover and convective cell characteristics using a combination of satellite observations, radar data, and high-resolution process-based modeling. We isolate urban effects by comparing model simulations with realistic urban land cover against hypothetical scenarios where all urban areas are replaced by rural vegetation. Results reveal that Houston's land cover consistently enhances cloud fraction and convective activity relative to surrounding rural areas, altered by large-scale meteorological forcing. Under weakly forced conditions, enhanced surface heat flux primarily contributes to driving low-level convergence and vertical ascent, leading to over 8% cloud fraction increase between 2 and 6 km over the city. Under strongly forced conditions, urban influences manifest differently depending on cloud type. For non-convective clouds, the city acts as a barrier that decelerates and lifts moist southerly inflow, increasing low cloud cover over the urban core, while decreasing it downwind the city. For convective clouds, both synoptic ascent and urbanization modulate moisture redistribution and cloud structure, producing modest cloud enhancement over the city and slight suppression over the downwind area. Urbanization exerts small changes in the intensity of the convective cells; however, it significantly decreases their duration and traveling distance. This work highlights the importance of accounting for land surface heterogeneity in modeling clouds and precipitation and demonstrates that urban impacts on clouds are highly regime-dependent.

Liu, Ye [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Plasma thermal transport with a generalized 8-moment distribution function

Moment equations that model plasma transport require an ansatz distribution function to close the system of equations. The resulting transport is sensitive to the specific closure used, and several options have been proposed in the literature. Two different 8-moment distribution functions can be generalized to form a single-parameter family of distribution functions. The transport coefficients resulting from this generalized distribution function can be expressed in terms of this free parameter. This provides the flexibility of matching the 8-moment model to some validating result at a given magnetization value, such as Braginskii’s transport, or the more recent results of Davies et al. [Physics of Plasma, 28, 012305 (2021)]. Here, this process can be thought of as solving for the 8-moment distribution function that matches the value of a transport coefficient given by a Chapman-Enskog expansion, while retaining the improved physical properties, such as finite propagation speeds and time dependence which belong to the hyperbolic moment models. Since the presented generalized distribution function only has a single free parameter, only a single transport coefficient can be matched at a time. However, this generalization process may be extended to provide multiple free parameters. The focus of this Brief Communication is on the dramatically improved thermal conductivity of the proposed model compared to the two base moment models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The physiological basis for estimating photosynthesis from Chl>em>a fluorescence

We report solar-induced Chl fluorescence (SIF) offers the potential to curb large uncertainties in the estimation of photosynthesis across biomes and climates, and at different spatiotemporal scales. However, it remains unclear how SIF should be used to mechanistically estimate photosynthesis. In this study, we built a quantitative framework for the estimation of photosynthesis, based on a mechanistic light reaction model with the Chla fluorescence of Photosystem II (SIFPSII) as an input (MLR-SIF). Utilizing 29 C 3 and C 4 plant species that are representative of major plant biomes across the globe, we confirmed the validity of this framework at the leaf level. The MLR-SIF model is capable of accurately reproducing photosynthesis for all C 3 and C 4 species under diverse light, temperature, and CO 2 conditions. We further tested the robustness of the MLR-SIF model using Monte Carlo simulations, and found that photosynthesis estimates were much less sensitive to parameter uncertainties relative to the conventional Farquhar, von Caemmerer, Berry (FvCB) model because of the additional independent information contained in SIF PSII . Once inferred from direct observables of SIF, SIF PSII provides ‘parameter savings’ to the MLR-SIF model, compared to the mechanistically equivalent FvCB model, and thus avoids the uncertainties arising as a result of imperfect model parameterization. Our findings set the stage for future efforts to employ SIF mechanistically to improve photosynthesis estimates across a variety of scales, functional groups, and environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Weak-Form Latent Space Dynamics Identification

This software showcases the enhanced capabilities of the Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI) algorithm through the application of the weak form, resulting in WLaSDI. WLaSDI first compresses the data, then projects it onto test functions, and subsequently learns the local latent space models. Notably, WLaSDI demonstrates significantly improved robustness to noise. Using weak-form equation learning techniques, WLaSDI achieves local latent space modeling. Compared to the standard sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) used in LaSDI, the variance reduction of the weak form ensures robust and precise latent space recovery, enabling fast, robust, and accurate simulations. We demonstrate the efficacy of WLaSDI against LaSDI using several common benchmark examples, including viscid and inviscid Burgers', radial advection, and heat conduction. For instance, in 1D inviscid Burgers' simulations with up to 100% Gaussian white noise, WLaSDI maintains relative errors consistently below 6%, whereas LaSDI errors can exceed 10,000%. Similarly, in radial advection simulations, WLaSDI keeps relative errors below 16%, compared to potential errors of up to 10,000% with LaSDI. Additionally, WLaSDI achieves significant speedups, such as a 140X speedup in 1D Burgers' simulations compared to the corresponding full order model.

Choi, Youngsoo↗

DOE OSTI2019

What Drives Upper-Ocean Temperature Variability in Coupled Climate Models and Observations?

Abstract A key question in climate modeling is to what extent sea surface temperature and upper-ocean heat content are driven passively by air–sea heat fluxes, as opposed to forcing by ocean dynamics. This paper investigates the question using a climate model at different resolutions, and observations, for monthly variability. At the grid scale in a high-resolution climate model with resolved mesoscale ocean eddies, ocean dynamics (i.e., ocean heat flux convergence) dominates upper 50 m heat content variability over most of the globe. For deeper depths of integration to 400 m, the heat content variability at the grid scale is almost totally controlled by ocean heat flux convergence. However, a strong dependence on spatial scale is found—for the upper 50 m of ocean, after smoothing the data to around 7°, air–sea heat fluxes, augmented by Ekman heat transports, dominate. For deeper depths of integration to 400 m, the transition scale becomes larger and is above 10° in western boundary currents. Comparison of climate model results with observations show that the small-scale influence of ocean intrinsic variability is well captured by the high-resolution model but is missing from a comparable model with parameterized ocean-eddy effects. In the deep tropics, ocean dynamics dominates in all cases and all scales. In the subtropical gyres at large scales, air–sea heat fluxes play the biggest role. In the midlatitudes, at large scales >10°, atmosphere-driven air–sea heat fluxes and Ekman heat transport variability are the dominant processes except in the western boundary currents for the 400 m heat content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapid Spaceborne Mapping of Wildfire Retardant Drops for Active Wildfire Management

Aerial application of fire retardant is a critical tool for managing wildland fire spread. Retardant applications are carefully planned to maximize fire line effectiveness, improve firefighter safety, protect high-value resources and assets, and limit environmental impact. However, topography, wind, visibility, and aircraft orientation can lead to differences between planned drop locations and the actual placement of the retardant. Information on the precise placement and areal extent of the dropped retardant can provide wildland fire managers with key information to (1) adaptively manage event resources, (2) assess the effectiveness of retardant slowing or stopping fire spread, (3) document location in relation to ecologically sensitive areas; and perform or validate cost-accounting for drop services. This study uses Sentinel-2 satellite data and commonly used machine learning classifiers to test an automated approach for detecting and mapping retardant application. We show that a multiclass model (retardant, burned, unburned, and cloud artifact classes) outperforms a single-class retardant model and that image differencing (post-application minus pre-application) outperforms single-image models. Compared to the random forest and support vector machine, the gradient boosting model performed the best with an overall accuracy of 0.88 and an F1 Score of 0.76 for fire retardant, though results were comparable for all three models. Our approach maps the full areal extent of the dropped retardant within minutes of image availability, rather than linear representations currently mapped by aerial GPS surveys. The development of this capability allows for the rapid assessment of retardant effectiveness and documentation of placement in relation to sensitive environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗