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CARE 3 phase 2 report - mathematical description

CARE III (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation, version three) a computer program designed to help estimate the reliability of complex, redundant systems is described. Although the program can model a wide variety of redundant structures, it was developed specifically for fault tolerant avionics systems. CARE III generalizes the class of system structures that can be modeled and greatly expands the coverage model to take into account such effects as intermittent and transient faults, latent faults, and error propagation.

Stiffler, J. J.↗

Using Statistical Multivariable Models to Understand the Relationship Between Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejecta and Magnetic Flux Ropes

In-situ measurements of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) display a wide range of properties. A distinct subset, "magnetic clouds" (MCs), are readily identifiable by a smooth rotation in an enhanced magnetic field, together with an unusually low solar wind proton temperature. In this study, we analyze Ulysses spacecraft measurements to systematically investigate five possible explanations for why some ICMEs are observed to be MCs and others are not: i) An observational selection effect; that is, all ICMEs do in fact contain MCs, but the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME determines whether the MC is actually encountered; ii) interactions of an erupting flux rope (PR) with itself or between neighboring FRs, which produce complex structures in which the coherent magnetic structure has been destroyed; iii) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-beta state that leads to the formation of an MC; iv) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic initiation mechanisms, some of which produce MCs and some that do not; or v) MCs are just an easily identifiable limit in an otherwise corntinuous spectrum of structures. We apply quantitative statistical models to assess these ideas. In particular, we use the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the candidate models and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to uncover any intrinsic clustering of the data. Using a logistic regression, we find that plasma-beta, CME width, and the ratio O(sup 7) / O(sup 6) are the most significant predictor variables for the presence of an MC. Moreover, the propensity for an event to be identified as an MC decreases with heliocentric distance. These results tend to refute ideas ii) and iii). GMM clustering analysis further identifies three distinct groups of ICMEs; two of which match (at the 86% level) with events independently identified as MCs, and a third that matches with non-MCs (68 % overlap), Thus, idea v) is not supported. Choosing between ideas i) and iv) is more challenging, since they may effectively be indistinguishable from one another by a single in-situ spacecraft. We offer some suggestions on how future studies may address this.

Riley, P.↗

Monitoring the Intrinsic Absorption Complex Toward RXJ123.8+0115

The main focus of this study was changed after it became clear that the object to be observed by the Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) could not be observed because of spacecraft attitude control system limitations. Therefore, we replaced the prime object for the program (RXJ1230.8+0115) with a secondary object (H1821+643) and began an analysis of a similar quasar spectrum for comparison with the extant RXJ1230.8+0115 spectrum obtained previously by FUSE. Using high-resolution spectra of the radio-quiet, X-ray bright quasar HE0226-4110 obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and FUSE, we have examined the remarkable associated absorption line system. The redshift of the quasar is roughly 0.5 so the FUSE+HST spectra cover the rest-frame wavelength in the extreme ultraviolet range 610-1 160A. In this range, we detect transitions from a wide range of ionization species, including the H I Lyman series, Ne VIII, and, for the first time at this resolution, four adjacent stages of oxygen O III-VI. The high quality of these spectra allow us to disentangle the structure of the gas using the complex kinematics to guide the assessments of the multi-component and multi-phase nature of the system. The kinematics of the absorber indicate that all the H I, C 111, and 0 III reside in a single component, while higher ionization species largely arise in a separate, more kinematically complex structure. An analysis of a ground-based spectrum of the quasar covering the H-beta and [0 III] 5007 emission lines reveal excellent agreement in redshift between the 0 III absorption and emission. Thus, for the first time, we are able to use absorption line diagnostics to place interesting constraints on the location and structure of the narrow emission line region around a quasar. In addition, we detect a narrow absorption line that is only seen O VI and lies roughly 50 km/s redward of the narrow emission line component. Absorption from 0 V, and Ne VIII is also detected at this velocity, but as part of broader, more redshifted, component. The line width of this narrow component imply a maximum temperature that is too small to produce O VI through collisional process, suggesting instead that photoionization from the quasar is the dominant ionization mechanism. The photoionization constraints imply that O VII should be the dominant ionization stage in the component.

Sembach, Kenneth↗

A simple spectrophotometric method for determination of zirconium or hafnium in selected molybdenum-base alloys

A simple analytical procedure is described for accurately and precisely determining the zirconium or hafnium content of molybdenum-base alloys. The procedure is based on the reaction of the reagent Arsenazo III with zirconium or hafnium in strong hydrochloric acid solution. The colored complexes of zirconium or hafnium are formed in the presence of molybdenum. Titanium or rhenium in the alloy have no adverse effect on the zirconium or hafnium complex at the following levels in the selected aliquot: Mo, 10 mg; Re, 10 mg; Ti, 1 mg. The spectrophotometric measurement of the zirconium or hafnium complex is accomplished without prior separation with a relative standard deviation of 1.3 to 2.7 percent.

Dupraw, W. A.↗

A High Signal-To-Noise Ultraviolet Spectrum of NGC 7469: New Support for Reprocessing of Continuum Radiation

From 1996 June 10 to 1996 July 29, the International AGN Watch monitored the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 7469 using the International Ultraviolet Explorer, the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer, and a network of ground-based observatories. On 1996 June 18, in the midst of this intensive monitoring period, we obtained a high signal-to-noise snapshot of the UV spectrum from 1150 to 3300 A, using the Faint Object Spectrograph (FOS) on the Hubble Space Telescope. This spectrum allows us to disentangle the UV continuum more accurately from the broad wings of the emission lines, to identify clean continuum windows free of contaminating emission and absorption, and to deblend line complexes such as Ly(alpha) + N V, C IV + He II + O III], Si III] + C III], and Mg II + Fe II. Using the FOS spectrum as a template, we have fitted and extracted line and continuum fluxes from the IUE monitoring data. The cleaner continuum extractions c o n h the discovery of time delays between the different UV continuum bands by Wanders et al. Our new measurements show delays increasing with wavelength for continuum bands centered at 1485, 1740, and 1825 A, relative to 1315 A with delays of 0.09, 0.28, and 0.36 days, respectively. Like many other Seyfert I galaxies, the UV spectrum of NGC 7469 shows intrinsic, blue-shifted absorption in Ly(alpha), N V, and C IV. Soft X-ray absorption is also visible in archival ASCA X-ray spectra. The strength of the UV absorption, however, is not compatible with a single-zone model in which the same material absorbs both the UV and X-ray light. Similar to other Seyfert galaxies, such as NGC 3516, the UV-absorbing gas in NGC 7469 has a lower ionization parameter and column density than the X-ray-absorbing material. While the UV and X-ray absorption does not arise in the same material, the frequent occurrence of both associated UV absorption and X-ray warm absorbers in the same galaxies suggests that the gas supply for each has a common origin.

Kriss, Gerard A.↗

Testbed Results for Scalar and Vector Radiative Transfer Computations of Light in Atmosphere-Ocean Systems

We generate and tabulate reflectance values of the Stokes parameters I, Q, and U of upwelling radiance just above a rough ocean surface and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for 100 scattering geometries, four atmosphere-ocean systems, and four wavelengths. The atmosphere-ocean systems increase in complexity from (a) a molecular atmosphere above a rough ocean surface (AOS-I model); to (b) a pure water body below a rough ocean surface (AOS-II model); to (c) a fully-coupled simple atmosphere-ocean system (AOS-III model) containing a molecular atmosphere, rough ocean surface, and pure water; to (d) a fully-coupled complex atmosphere-ocean system (AOS-IV model) that includes scattering by molecules, rough ocean surface, pure water, and hydrosols. Our wavelengths (350, 450, 550, and 650 nm) capture the ultraviolet-visible range. Our tables provide radiative transfer (RT) testbed results for atmosphere-ocean systems with an accuracy that surpasses the measurement accuracy of state-of-the-art polarimeters. To validate the accuracy of these tables we performed computations using three independent RT codes that provide deterministic numerical solutions for the RT equation. The agreement is 10(exp –5) for AOS-IV model, and 10(exp –6) for the other models. The degree of linear polarization computed by these RT codes differs by ≤0.2% for 15 isolated cases of tabulated reflectance values, and by ≤0.1% for all remaining cases. We also provide comparisons with results obtained by a stochastic RT code for AOS-I model. The agreement between the deterministic and stochastic results for this model is 10(exp –5) at TOA, and 10(exp –6) above the ocean surface.

Polarimeters↗

(abstract) A Mobile Robot for Remote Response to Incidents Involving Hazardous Materials

This paper will report the status of the Emergency Response Robotics project, a teleoperated mobile robot system being developed at JPL for use by the JPL Fire Department/HAZMAT Team. The project, which began in 1991, has been focused on developing a robotic vehicle which can be quickly deployed by HAZMAT Team personnel for first entry into an incident site. The primary goals of the system are to gain access to the site, locate and identify the hazard, and aid in its mitigation. The involvement of JPL Fire Department/HAZMAT Team personnel has been critical in guiding the design and evaluation of the system. A unique feature of the current robot, called HAZBOT III, is its special design for operation in combustible environments. This includes the use of all solid state electronics, brushless motors, and internal pressurization. Demonstration and testing of the system with HAZMAT Team personnel has shown that teleoperated robots, such as HAZBOT III, can successfully gain access to incident sites locating and identifying hazardous material spills. Work is continuing to enable more complex missions through the addition of appropriate sensor technology and enhancement of the operator interface.

robots teleoperator hazardous materials HAZMAT HAZ↗

FASTER 3: A generalized-geometry Monte Carlo computer program for the transport of neutrons and gamma rays. Volume 2: Users manual

A description of the FASTER-III program for Monte Carlo Carlo calculation of photon and neutron transport in complex geometries is presented. Major revisions include the capability of calculating minimum weight shield configurations for primary and secondary radiation and optimal importance sampling parameters. The program description includes a users manual describing the preparation of input data cards, the printout from a sample problem including the data card images, definitions of Fortran variables, the program logic, and the control cards required to run on the IBM 7094, IBM 360, UNIVAC 1108 and CDC 6600 computers.

Jordan, T. M.↗

Mixed mode stress field effect in adhesive fracture

Numerical or analytical analyses were performed on seven different test specimens including blister test, 90-degree peel test, torsion test, and various cone tests. These specimens are in general subjected to complex stress fields having various amounts of Mode I, Mode II, and Mode III loads. The specimens were then constructed using polymethyl methacrylate for the adherends and a transparent polyurethane elastomer (Solithane 113) for the adhesive. This combination permitted direct observation of the bondline as load was applied. Although initial debonds as well as bond end termination singularities were present in all specimens, in some cases the debond did not initiate at the singularity points as would normally have been expected. An explanation for this behavior is presented, as well as a comparison of loading mode effect on those specimens for which the debond did propagate from a bond terminus singular point.

Anderson, G. P.↗

A study of hard X-ray associated meter-decameter bursts observed on December 19, 1979

The results of a study of the relationship of a complex meter-decameter wavelength radio burst observed with the Clark Lake E-W and N-S interferometers, with a hard X-ray burst observed with the X-ray spectrometer aboard ISEE-3 are presented. The radio burst consisted of several type III's, reverse drift type III's, a U burst, and type II and type IV bursts. The X-ray emission was also complex. The radio as well as hard X-ray emissions were observed before the flash phase of the flare; they were not always associated and it is conjectured that this may constitute evidence for acceleration of electrons high in the corona. On the other hand, all components of the reverse drift burst were associated with hard X-ray subpeaks, indicating multiple injection of electron beams along field lines with different density gradients. While the type II burst appeared to be related to the hard X-ray burst, a detailed correspondence between individual features of the radio and hard X-ray burst emissions could not be found. The type IV burst started after all hard X-ray emissions ceased. Its source appeared to be a magnetic arch, presumably containing energetic electrons reponsible for the gyrosynchrotron radiation of type IV.

Kundu, M. R.↗

A Comparison of Metamodeling Techniques via Numerical Experiments

This paper presents a comparative analysis of a few metamodeling techniques using numerical experiments for the single input-single output case. These experiments enable comparing the models' predictions with the phenomenon they are aiming to describe as more data is made available. These techniques include (i) prediction intervals associated with a least squares parameter estimate, (ii) Bayesian credible intervals, (iii) Gaussian process models, and (iv) interval predictor models. Aspects being compared are computational complexity, accuracy (i.e., the degree to which the resulting prediction conforms to the actual Data Generating Mechanism), reliability (i.e., the probability that new observations will fall inside the predicted interval), sensitivity to outliers, extrapolation properties, ease of use, and asymptotic behavior. The numerical experiments describe typical application scenarios that challenge the underlying assumptions supporting most metamodeling techniques.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution. III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases, deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multipoint hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large-scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galaxies↗

Structure in the 3D Galaxy Distribution: III. Fourier Transforming the Universe: Phase and Power Spectra

We demonstrate the effectiveness of a relatively straightforward analysis of the complex 3D Fourier transform of galaxy coordinates derived from redshift surveys. Numerical demonstrations of this approach are carried out on a volume-limited sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey redshift survey. The direct unbinned transform yields a complex 3D data cube quite similar to that from the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of finely binned galaxy positions. In both cases deconvolution of the sampling window function yields estimates of the true transform. Simple power spectrum estimates from these transforms are roughly consistent with those using more elaborate methods. The complex Fourier transform characterizes spatial distributional properties beyond the power spectrum in a manner different from (and we argue is more easily interpreted than) the conventional multi-point hierarchy. We identify some threads of modern large scale inference methodology that will presumably yield detections in new wider and deeper surveys.

Galactic clusters↗

Exploring Digital Transformation for NASA Nuclear Flight Safety

The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA)’s Nuclear Flight Safety discipline is exploring opportunities to combine incremental advancements in many contributing areas in a way that produces a transformative change for how work is performed. More specifically, after providing some general NASA and space nuclear policy background, the authors will describe concepts and efforts that enable: (i) the use of objectives-d riven approaches (in concert with internal and external constraints) to establish a mission risk posture; (ii) the use of that risk posture in the planning process to risk-inform the selection of Safety and Mission Success (S&MS) methods and models; (iii) use of model-based and machine-assisted techniques to manage the complex and ponderous amount of information and interfaces that typify spaceflight efforts; (iv ) the means by which that infrastructure can directly feed an assurance case (including use of systems modelling language, ontological formulation, and semantic web technology) so as to address known weaknesses in our ability to communicate and manage that complexity; and (v) use of that case-assured framework to demonstrate that one did the adequate and sufficient S&MS work and that the S&MS work was done competently.

Donald Helton↗

FASTER 3: A generalized-geometry Monte Carlo computer program for the transport of neutrons and gamma rays. Volume 1: Summary report

The theory used in FASTER-III, a Monte Carlo computer program for the transport of neutrons and gamma rays in complex geometries, is outlined. The program includes the treatment of geometric regions bounded by quadratic and quadric surfaces with multiple radiation sources which have specified space, angle, and energy dependence. The program calculates, using importance sampling, the resulting number and energy fluxes at specified point, surface, and volume detectors. It can also calculate minimum weight shield configuration meeting a specified dose rate constraint. Results are presented for sample problems involving primary neutron, and primary and secondary photon, transport in a spherical reactor shield configuration.

Jordan, T. M.↗

Ellipsometric study of metal-organic chemically vapor deposited III-V semiconductor structures

An ellipsometric study of MOCVD-grown layers of AlGaAs and InGaAs in thick films and strained layer complex structures is presented. It is concluded that the ternary composition of thick nonstrained layers can be accurately determined to within experimental errors using numerical algorithms. In the case of complex structures, thickness of all layers and the alloy composition of nonstrained layers can be determined simultaneously, provided that the correlations between parameters is no higher than 0.9.

Alterovitz, Samuel A.↗

Normative data on phases of the Valsalva maneuver

The phases of the Valsalva maneuver have well-known pathophysiology, and are used in the evaluation of adrenergic function. Because scant normative data is available, we have evaluated normative data for the Valsalva maneuver in control subjects. The patient, supine, performed the Valsalva maneuver maintaining an expiratory pressure of 40 mm Hg for 15 seconds. We reviewed 188 Valsalva maneuver recordings of normal control subjects, and recordings were excluded if two reproducible recordings were not obtained, or if expiratory pressure was <30 mm Hg or < 10 seconds. One hundred and three recordings were acceptable for analysis; 47 female and 56 male subjects, age in years (mean +/- SD) was 52.2+/-17.3 and 44.8+/-17.3, respectively. The association of expiratory pressure with age (P < 0.001) and gender ( P < 0.001) was complex, expressed as a parabola in both men and women, but resulted in phases I and III that were not significantly different. An increase in age resulted in a progressively more negative phase II_E (P < 0.05) and attenuation of phase II_L (P < 0.01). An increase in supine blood pressure resulted in a significantly more negative phase II_E (P < 0.001) and a lower phase IV. Phase IV is unaffected by age and gender.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Chandra X-ray Observation of a Mature Cloud-Shock Interaction in the Bright Eastern Knot of Puppis A

We present Chandra X-ray images and spectra of the most prominent cloud-shock interaction region in the Puppis A supernova remnant. The Bright Eastern Knot (BEK) has two main morphological components: (1) a bright compact knot that lies directly behind the apex of an indentation in the eastern X-ray boundary and (2) lying 1 westward behind the shock, a curved vertical structure (bar) that is separated from a smaller bright cloud (cap) by faint diffuse emission. Based on hardness images and spectra, we identify the bar and cap as a single shocked interstellar cloud. Its morphology strongly resembles the "voided sphere" structures seen at late times in Klein et al. experimental simulat.ions of cloud-shock interactions, when the crushing of the cloud by shear instabilities is well underway. We infer an intera.ction time of roughly cloud-crushing timescales, which translates to 2000-4000 years, based on the X-ray temperature, physical size, and estimated expansion of the shocked cloud. This is the first X-ray identified example of a cloud-shock interaction in this advanced phase. Closer t o the shock front, the X-ray emission of the compact knot in the eastern part of the BEK region implies a recent interaction with relatively denser gas, some of which lies in front of the remnant. The complex spatial relationship of the X-ray emission of the compact knot to optical [O III] emission suggests that there are multiple cloud interactions occurring along the line of sight.

Hwang, Una↗