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At least 73 records · Page 4

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale of post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of the impacts of fire on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify the impacts of wildfire on runoff generation. We consider the disturbances in the vegetation and soil as the two main factors contributing to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We consider the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration for two case studies. These case studies demonstrate the general applicability of hydrophobicity formulation to serve as a guideline for exploring the range of hydrologic responses post-fire.

Fire Hydrology↗

Robust Strategy for Rocket Engine Health Monitoring

Monitoring the health of rocket engine systems is essentially a two-phase process. The acquisition phase involves sensing physical conditions at selected locations, converting physical inputs to electrical signals, conditioning the signals as appropriate to establish scale or filter interference, and recording results in a form that is easy to interpret. The inference phase involves analysis of results from the acquisition phase, comparison of analysis results to established health measures, and assessment of health indications. A variety of analytical tools may be employed in the inference phase of health monitoring. These tools can be separated into three broad categories: statistical, rule based, and model based. Statistical methods can provide excellent comparative measures of engine operating health. They require well-characterized data from an ensemble of "typical" engines, or "golden" data from a specific test assumed to define the operating norm in order to establish reliable comparative measures. Statistical methods are generally suitable for real-time health monitoring because they do not deal with the physical complexities of engine operation. The utility of statistical methods in rocket engine health monitoring is hindered by practical limits on the quantity and quality of available data. This is due to the difficulty and high cost of data acquisition, the limited number of available test engines, and the problem of simulating flight conditions in ground test facilities. In addition, statistical methods incur a penalty for disregarding flow complexity and are therefore limited in their ability to define performance shift causality. Rule based methods infer the health state of the engine system based on comparison of individual measurements or combinations of measurements with defined health norms or rules. This does not mean that rule based methods are necessarily simple. Although binary yes-no health assessment can sometimes be established by relatively simple rules, the causality assignment needed for refined health monitoring often requires an exceptionally complex rule base involving complicated logical maps. Structuring the rule system to be clear and unambiguous can be difficult, and the expert input required to maintain a large logic network and associated rule base can be prohibitive.

Santi, L. Michael↗

Reactive Sequencing for Autonomous Navigation Evolving from Phoenix Entry, Descent, and Landing

Virtual Machine Language (VML) is an award-winning advanced procedural sequencing language in use on NASA deep-space missions since 1997, and was used for the successful entry, descent, and landing (EDL) of the Phoenix spacecraft onto the surface of Mars. Phoenix EDL utilized a state-oriented operations architecture which executed within the constraints of the existing VML 2.0 flight capability, compatible with the linear "land or die" nature of the mission. The intricacies of Phoenix EDL included the planned discarding of portions of the vehicle, the complex communications management for relay through on-orbit assets, the presence of temporally indeterminate physical events, and the need to rapidly catch up four days of sequencing should a reboot of the spacecraft flight computer occur shortly before atmospheric entry. These formidable operational challenges led to new techniques for packaging and coordinating reusable sequences called blocks using one-way synchronization via VML sequencing global variable events. The coordinated blocks acted as an ensemble to land the spacecraft, while individually managing various elements in as simple a fashion as possible. This paper outlines prototype VML 2.1 flight capabilities that have evolved from the one-way synchronization techniques in order to implement even more ambitious autonomous mission capabilities. Target missions for these new capabilities include autonomous touch-and-go sampling of cometary and asteroidal bodies, lunar landing of robotic missions, and ultimately landing of crewed lunar vehicles. Close proximity guidance, navigation, and control operations, on-orbit rendezvous, and descent and landing events featured in these missions require elaborate abort capability, manifesting highly non-linear scenarios that are so complex as to overtax traditional sequencing, or even the sort of one-way coordinated sequencing used during EDL. Foreseeing advanced command and control needs for small body and lunar landing guidance, navigation and control scenarios, work began three years ago on substantial upgrades to VML that are now being exercised in scenarios for lunar landing and comet/asteroid rendezvous. The advanced state-based approach includes coordinated state transition machines with distributed decision-making logic. These state machines are not merely sequences - they are reactive logic constructs capable of autonomous decision making within a well-defined domain. Combined with the JPL's AutoNav software used on Deep Space 1 and Deep Impact, the system allows spacecraft to autonomously navigate to an unmapped surface, soft-contact, and either land or ascend. The state machine architecture enabled by VML 2.1 has successfully performed sampling missions and lunar descent missions in a simulated environment, and is progressing toward flight capability. The authors are also investigating using the VML 2.1 flight director architecture to perform autonomous activities like rendezvous with a passive hypothetical Mars sample return capsule. The approach being pursued is similar to the touch-and-go sampling state machines, with the added complications associated with the search for, physical capture of, and securing of a separate spacecraft. Complications include optically finding and tracking the Orbiting Sample Capsule (OSC), keeping the OSC illuminated, making orbital adjustments, and physically capturing the OSC. Other applications could include autonomous science collection and fault compensation.

asteroid↗

Direct numerical simulation of reacting flows

The objectives of this work are: (1) to extend the technique of direct numerical simulations to turbulent, chemically reacting flows, (2) to test the validity of the method by comparing computational results with laboratory data, and (3) to use the simulations to gain a better understanding of the effects of turbulence on chemical reactions. The effects of both the large scale structure and the smaller scale turbulence on the overall reaction rates are addressed. The relationship between infinite reaction rate and finite reaction rate chemistry is compared with some of the results of calculations with existing theories and laboratory data. The direct numerical simulation method involves the numerical solution of the detailed evolution of the complex turbulent velocity and concentration fields. Using very efficient numerical methods (e.g., pseudospectral methods), the fully nonlinear (possibly low pass filtered) equations of motion are solved and no closure assumptions or turbulence models are used. Statistical data are obtained by performing spatial, temporal, and/or ensemble averages over the computed flow fields.

Riley, J. J.↗

Visualization and Quantification of Rotor Tip Vortices in Helicopter Flows

Helicopter aeromechanics encompasses a highly vortical flow field. The vortices generated at each blade tip contain unsteady, complex, three-dimensional structures, which interact with each other, other blades, the fuselage and various components of the helicopter. It is crucial to understand vortex kinematics and their subsequent dynamic evolution. Much research has been devoted to the understanding of helicopter vortex dynamics, including a number of experimental studies.1-6 In May 2010 Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements of a full-scale UH-60A rotor were acquired in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel.1 These measurements were taken at a plane just downstream of the advancing blade in the vicinity of the blade tip—the so-called PIV plane. The resulting PIV data were then processed using an ensemble-average approach to create graphical representations of the vortical wake velocity and vorticity fields, which, in turn, have enhanced the understanding of rotorcraft vortical wake flow field physics and have provided a more detailed validation of vortical wake computer simulations.7 A common approach used to analyze flow field features is to compute and plot color contour maps of various scalar quantities such as pressure, velocity magnitude and vorticity magnitude. For example, the color map of the vorticity magnitude is typically used to determine vortical flow structure. With this approach the vortex core may appear larger or smaller, depending on the contour levels that are selected. Thus, the resulting visualization is sensitive to user-specified contour levels. For vortex core radius measurements, it is more accurate to calculate the vortex core radius using the cross-flow velocity profile across the vortex core. The task of extracting the cross-flow velocity profile can be time consuming with existing tools since the user needs to manually select the core center then specify sampling points along the profile axis. The task becomes even more challenging when the associated grid system uses AMR (Adaptive Mesh Refinement) where the profile axis could span multiple grid blocks. There are a number of existing techniques for profiling of vortex core attributes;8-9 however, these techniques are not fully automatic in that the user still needs to select the vortex core center to compute the cross-flow velocity profile. The present study introduces a new color map scheme that is based on the vortex core radius, which is fully automatic and does not require user intervention. Analysis and visualization of blade tip vortices on the PIV plane using the proposed new color map scheme are described in Section II. The new approach is evaluated using two case studies, which are described in Section III. The paper ends with a summary in Section IV.

Quantification↗

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

Theories of Simplification and Scaling of Spatially Distributed Processes

The problem of scaling is at the heart of ecological theory, the essence of understanding and of the development of a predictive capability. The description of any system depends on the spatial, temporal, and organizational perspective chosen; hence it is essential to understand not only how patterns and dynamics vary with scale, but also how patterns at one scale are manifestations of processes operating at other scales. Evolution has shaped the characteristics of species in ways that result in scale displacement: Each species experiences the environment at its own unique set of spatial and temporal scales and interfaces the biota through unique assemblages of phenotypes. In this way, coexistence becomes possible, and biodiversity is enhanced. By averaging over space, time, and biological interactions, a genotype filters variation at fine scales and selects the arena in which it will face the vicissitudes of nature. Variation at finer scales is then noise, of minor importance to the survival and dynamics of the species, and consequently of minor importance in any attempt at description. In attempting to model ecological interactions in space, contributors throughout this book have struggled with a trade-off between simplification and "realistic" complexity and detail. Although the challenge of simplification is widely recognized in ecology, less appreciated is the intertwining of scaling questions and scaling laws with the process of simplification. In the context of this chapter simplification will in general mean the use of spatial or ensemble means and low-order moments to capture more detailed interactions by integrating over given areas. In this way, one can derive descriptions of the system at different spatial scales, which provides the essentials for the extraction of scaling laws by examination of how system properties vary with scale.

Levin, Simon A.↗

Benchmarking a Soil Moisture Data Assimilation System for Agricultural Drought Monitoring

Despite considerable interest in the application of land surface data assimilation systems (LDAS) for agricultural drought applications, relatively little is known about the large-scale performance of such systems and, thus, the optimal methodological approach for implementing them. To address this need, this paper evaluates an LDAS for agricultural drought monitoring by benchmarking individual components of the system (i.e., a satellite soil moisture retrieval algorithm, a soil water balance model and a sequential data assimilation filter) against a series of linear models which perform the same function (i.e., have the same basic inputoutput structure) as the full system component. Benchmarking is based on the calculation of the lagged rank cross-correlation between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and soil moisture estimates acquired for various components of the system. Lagged soil moistureNDVI correlations obtained using individual LDAS components versus their linear analogs reveal the degree to which non-linearities andor complexities contained within each component actually contribute to the performance of the LDAS system as a whole. Here, a particular system based on surface soil moisture retrievals from the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM), a two-layer Palmer soil water balance model and an Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is benchmarked. Results suggest significant room for improvement in each component of the system.

soil moisture↗

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗

Utilities for master source code distribution: MAX and Friends

MAX is a program for the manipulation of FORTRAN master source code (MSC). This is a technique by which one maintains one and only one master copy of a FORTRAN program under a program developing system, which for MAX is assumed to be VAX/VMS. The master copy is not intended to be directly compiled. Instead it must be pre-processed by MAX to produce compilable instances. These instances may correspond to different code versions (for example, double precision versus single precision), different machines (for example, IBM, CDC, Cray) or different operating systems (i.e., VAX/VMS versus VAX/UNIX). The advantage os using a master source is more pronounced in complex application programs that are developed and maintained over many years and are to be transported and executed on several computer environments. The version lag problem that plagues many such programs is avoided by this approach. MAX is complemented by several auxiliary programs that perform nonessential functions. The ensemble is collectively known as MAX and Friends. All of these programs, including MAX, are executed as foreign VAX/VMS commands and can easily be hidden in customized VMS command procedures.

Felippa, Carlos A.↗

Sources of Uncertainty in Predicting Land Surface Fluxes Using Diverse Data and Models

In the domain of predicting land surface fluxes, models are used to bring data from large observation networks and satellite remote sensing together to make predictions about present and future states of the Earth. Characterizing the uncertainty about such predictions is a complex process and one that is not yet fully understood. Uncertainty exists about initialization, measurement and interpolation of input variables; model parameters; model structure; and mixed spatial and temporal supports. Multiple models or structures often exist to describe the same processes. Uncertainty about structure is currently addressed by running an ensemble of different models and examining the distribution of model outputs. To illustrate structural uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble experiment we have been conducting using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) will be discussed. TOPS uses public versions of process-based ecosystem models that use satellite-derived inputs along with surface climate data and land surface characterization to produce predictions of ecosystem fluxes including gross and net primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Using the TOPS framework, we have explored the uncertainty arising from the application of models with different assumptions, structures, parameters, and variable definitions. With a small number of models, this only begins to capture the range of possible spatial fields of ecosystem fluxes. Few attempts have been made to systematically address the components of uncertainty in such a framework. We discuss the characterization of uncertainty for this approach including both quantifiable and poorly known aspects.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗

Leveraging Existing Mission Tools in a Re-Usable, Component-Based Software Environment

Emerging methods in component-based software development offer significant advantages but may seem incompatible with existing mission operations applications. In this paper we relate our positive experiences integrating existing mission applications into component-based tools we are delivering to three missions. In most operations environments, a number of software applications have been integrated together to form the mission operations software. In contrast, with component-based software development chunks of related functionality and data structures, referred to as components, can be individually delivered, integrated and re-used. With the advent of powerful tools for managing component-based development, complex software systems can potentially see significant benefits in ease of integration, testability and reusability from these techniques. These benefits motivate us to ask how component-based development techniques can be relevant in a mission operations environment, where there is significant investment in software tools that are not component-based and may not be written in languages for which component-based tools even exist. Trusted and complex software tools for sequencing, validation, navigation, and other vital functions cannot simply be re-written or abandoned in order to gain the advantages offered by emerging component-based software techniques. Thus some middle ground must be found. We have faced exactly this issue, and have found several solutions. Ensemble is an open platform for development, integration, and deployment of mission operations software that we are developing. Ensemble itself is an extension of an open source, component-based software development platform called Eclipse. Due to the advantages of component-based development, we have been able to vary rapidly develop mission operations tools for three surface missions by mixing and matching from a common set of mission operation components. We have also had to determine how to integrate existing mission applications for sequence development, sequence validation, and high level activity planning, and other functions into a component-based environment. For each of these, we used a somewhat different technique based upon the structure and usage of the existing application.

Greene, Kevin↗

DeepONet-Assisted Optimization of Surface Topography for Transition Delay in a Mach 4.5 Boundary Layer

We use deep learning, an ensemble variational technique (EnVar), and direct numerical simulations(DNS) to design an optimal topography for a two-dimensional roughness element that delays the on-set of laminar-turbulent transition in a Mach 4.5 flat-plate boundary layer. Deep operator networks (DeepONets), which have the known ability to learn complex nonlinear operators within dynamical systems, are used for machine learning. For the baseline configuration of a smooth flat plate, the second-mode waves at the DNS inflow cause a quick nonlinear breakdown of the high-speed boundary layer within the computational domain. Results reported in the present study validate the ability of DeepONets to model the transition delay via a given topography of the roughness element. The computing cost to optimize the rough-ness element for minimal skin-friction drag is substantially lowered by the DeepONets-based reduced-order model. In comparison to the baseline method of EnVar optimization based on DNS alone, the DeepONets-based EnVar optimizer is able to delay transition past the outflow boundary of the computational domain while utilizing almost 5–6 times fewer DNS.

Machine Learning↗

Investigation of the Influence of Microgravity on Transport Mechanisms in a Virtual Spaceflight Chamber: A Ground Based Program

In January 1992, the IML-1 FES experiment produced a set of classic experimental data and a 40 hour holographic "movie" of an ensemble of spheres in a fluid in microgravity. Because the data are in the form of holograms, we can study the three-dimensional distribution of particles with unprecedented detail by a variety of methods and for a wide variety of interests. The possession of the holographic movie is tantamount to having a complex experiment in space while working in an easily accessible laboratory on earth. The movie contains a vast amount of useful data, including residual g, g-jitter, convection and transport data, and particle fluid interaction data. The information content in the movie is so great that we have scarcely begun to tap into the data that is actually available in the more than 1000 holograms, each containing as much as 1000 megabytes of information. This ground-based project is exploiting this data and the concept of holographic storage of spaceflight data to provide an understanding of the effects of microgravity in materials processing. This paper provides the foundation, objectives, and status of the ground based project. The primary objective of this project is to advance the understanding of microgravity effects on crystal growth, convection in materials processing in the space environment, and complex transport phenomena at low Reynolds numbers. This objective is being achieved both experimentally and theoretically. Experiments are making use of existing holographic data recorded during the IML- I spaceflight. A parallel theoretical effort is providing the models for understanding the particle fields and their physics in the microgravity environment.

Trolinger, James D.↗

Investigating Sources of Variability and Error in Simulations of Carbon Dioxide in an Urban Region

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimation methods that use atmospheric trace gas observations, including inverse modeling techniques, perform better when carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes are more accurately transported and dispersed in the atmosphere by a numerical model. In urban areas, transport and dispersion is particularly difficult to simulate using current mesoscale meteorological models due, in part, to added complexity from surface heterogeneity and fine spatial/temporal scales. It is generally assumed that the errors in GHG estimation methods in urban areas are dominated by errors in transport and dispersion. Other significant errors include, but are not limited to, those from assumed emissions magnitude and spatial distribution. To assess the predictability of simulated trace gas mole fractions in urban observing systems using a numerical weather prediction model, we employ an Eulerian model that combines traditional meteorological variables with multiple passive tracers of atmospheric CO2 from anthropogenic inventories and a biospheric model. The predictability of the Eulerian model is assessed by comparing simulated atmospheric CO2 mole fractions to observations from four in situ tower sites (three urban and one rural) in the Washington DC/Baltimore, MD area for February 2016. Four different gridded fossil fuel emissions inventories along with a biospheric flux model are used to create an ensemble of simulated atmospheric CO2 observations within the model. These ensembles help to evaluate whether the modeled observations are impacted more by the underlying emissions or transport. The spread of modeled observations using the four emission fields indicates the model's ability to distinguish between the different inventories under various meteorological conditions. Overall, the Eulerian model performs well; simulated and observed average CO2 mole fractions agree within 1% when averaged at the three urban sites across the month. However, there can be differences greater than 10% at any given hour, which are attributed to complex meteorological conditions rather than differences in the inventories themselves. On average, the mean absolute error of the simulated compared to actual observations is generally twice as large as the standard deviation of the modeled mole fractions across the four emission inventories. This result supports the assumption, in urban domains, that the predicted mole fraction error relative to observations is dominated by errors in model meteorology rather than errors in the underlying fluxes in winter months. As such, minimizing errors associated with atmospheric transport and dispersion may help improve the performance of GHG estimation models more so than improving flux priors in the winter months. We also find that the errors associated with atmospheric transport in urban domains are not restricted to certain times of day. This suggests that atmospheric inversions should use CO2 observations that have been filtered using meteorological observations rather than assuming that meteorological modeling is most accurate at certain times of day (such as using only mid-afternoon observations).

CO2↗

Repeating sources of classical gamma-ray bursts

From an analysis of the first catalog of the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) experiment (Fishman et al. 1993, 1994a) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), we find an excessive number of pairs of gamma-ray bursts which are clustered in both a space and time . The angular separation between the two bursts in each pair is less than their positional uncertainties, and the interval between their occurrence times is within several days. Optimizing the signal, we find that the probability of observing such a clustered excess froma Poisson ensemble is approximately 2 x 10(exp -5). We suggest that these bursts arise from repeating sources. A detailed study of the most prolific source, GBS 0855-00, is presented in a separate paper (Wang & Lingenfelter 1993a, b). Unlike most of the 'soft' gamma-ray repeaters, these repeating bursts have relatively hard spectra, complex light curves, and widely varying durations, that are indistinguishable from classical gamma-ray bursts. Although the significance of the clustered excess was optimized a posteriori, because it depends on temporal and spatial bin sized that could not be defined a priori, we can use the optimizations from the first catalog to test subsequent BATSE data sets. Unfortunately, the failure of the on-board tape recorders during the second catalog period seriously reduced the number of accurately positioned bursts (Fishman et al. 1994b), so that we can neither confirm, nor refute, the predicted repitition in that sample, and we must await the results of the third catalog.

Wang, V. C.↗

Quantification and Mitigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization and Climate Change in the Tropical Coastal City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Urbanization, along with other cases of land cover and land use changes, has significant climate impacts in tropical regions with the added complexity of occurring within the context of global warming. The individual and combined effects of these two factors on the surface energy balance of a tropical city are investigated by use of an integrated atmospheric modeling approach, taking the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), Puerto Rico as the test case. To achieve this goal, an ensemble of climate and weather simulations is performed, with the climate scenarios combining urban development and sprawl with regional climate change over the past 50 years, and the short-term simulations designed to test the sensitivity to different urban vegetation configurations as mitigating alternatives. As indicator of change, we use the thermal response number (TRN), which is a measure of the sensible heating to the thermal storage of a surface or region, and the Bowen ratio, which is defined as the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes. The TRN of the area occupied by the SJMA has decreased as a consequence of replacing the low land coastal plain vegetation with man made materials, indicating that it takes less energy to raise the surface temperature of the urban area, whereas the TRN of forested regions has remained virtually unchanged. The global warming signal also has effects on the thermal response of the SJMA, where dryer current conditions generate lower TRN values. Differences due to global warming are more evident in the Bowen ratio pattern, mostly associated with the drier present conditions observed and its effects on sensible and latent heat fluxes. In terms of testing different mitigation strategies, the short-term simulations show that the urban area is more efficient in partitioning surface energy balance terms when green roofs are specified, as opposed to including vegetation inside the urban core.

Comarazamy, Daniel↗

A Note on the Relationship between Temperature and Water Vapor in Quasi-Equilibrium and Climate States

An ideal and simple formulation is successfully derived that well represents a quasi-linear relationship found between the domain-averaged water vapor, q (mm), and temperature, T (K), fields obtained from a series of quasi-equilibrium (long-term) simulations for the Tropics using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Earlier model work showed that the forced maintenance of two different wind profiles in the Tropics leads to two different equilibrium states. Investigating this finding required investigation of the slope of the moisture-temperature relations, which turns out to be linear in the Tropics. The extra-tropical climate equilibriums become more complex, but insight on modeling sensitivity can be obtained by linear stepwise regression of the integrated temperature and humidity. A globally curvilinear moisture-temperature distribution, similar to the famous Clausius-Clapeyron curve (i.e., saturated water vapor pressure versus temperature), is then found in this study. Such a genuine finding clarifies that the dynamics are crucial to the climate (shown in the earlier work) but the thermodynamics adjust. The range of validity of this result is further examined herein. The GCE-modeled tropical domain-averaged q and T fields form a linearly-regressed "q-T" slope that genuinely resides within an ideal range of slopes obtained from the aforementioned formulation. A quantity (denoted as dC2/dC1) representing the derivative between the static energy densities due to temperature (C2) and water vapor (C1) for various quasi-equilibrium states can also be obtained. A dC2/dC1 value near unity obtained for the GCE-modeled tropical simulations implies that the static energy densities due to moisture and temperature only differ by a pure constant for various equilibrium states. An overall q-T relation also including extra-tropical regions is, however, found to have a curvilinear relationship. Accordingly, warm/moist regions favor change in water vapor faster than temperature, while cold/dry regions favor an increase in temperature quicker than water vapor.

Shie, C.-L.↗