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At least 73 records · Page 4

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Hejduk, M.↗

Automated Spacecraft Conjunction Assessment at Mars and the Moon - A Five Year Update

It is well known that the Earth has an ongoing problem with orbiting space debris. Some Earth orbiting missions have regular warnings of close approaches with debris or other satellites. At Mars and the Moon, due to the growing number of orbiter missions and the current inability to track orbital debris in these environments, the creation of a hazardous debris field must be avoided because a debris field would greatly complicate both existing and future operations. Work at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in the area of automated spacecraft conjunction assessment at Mars and the Moon has been conducted over the past six years using a process called "MADCAP" ("Multimission Automated Deepspace Conjunction Assessment Process"). A paper introducing this work was presented at Space Ops in Stockholm, Sweden in 2012. In that inaugural paper, the then current state of operations was presented along with a number of items that were identified for potential future work. The fundamental design concepts of MADCAP have not materially changed in the last five years, however, since 2012 a number of the changes to MADCAP identified in the previous paper have been implemented. Some other previously planned work has not progressed appreciably; several of these items remain on a "parking lot" list. In addition to the items that were listed as prospective future work, JPL's Mars/Moon conjunction assessment efforts have also been extended in a few unplanned but important areas. This follow-up paper will provide a five year update on MADCAP operations at Mars and the Moon.

Wilson, Roby S.↗

Evolution and Implementation of the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis Concept of Operations

Reacting to potential on-orbit collision risk in an operational environment requires timely and accurate communication and exchange of data, information, and analysis to ensure informed decision-making for safety of flight and responsible use of the shared space environment. To accomplish this mission, it is imperative that all stakeholders effectively manage resources: devoting necessary and potentially intensive resource commitment to responding to high-risk conjunction events and preventing unnecessary expenditure of resources on events of low collision risk. After 10 years of operational experience, the NASA Robotic Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) is modifying its Concept of Operations (CONOPS) to ensure this alignment of collision risk and resource management. This evolution manifests itself in the approach to characterizing, reporting, and refining of collision risk. Implementation of this updated CONOPS is expected to have a demonstrated improvement on the efficacy of JSpOC, CARA, and owner/operator resources.

operations↗

OD Covariance in Conjunction Assessment: Introduction and Issues

Primary and secondary covariances combined and projected into conjunction plane (plane perpendicular to relative velocity vector at TCA) Primary placed on x-axis at (miss distance, 0) and represented by circle of radius equal to sum of both spacecraft circumscribing radiiZ-axis perpendicular to x-axis in conjunction plane Pc is portion of combined error ellipsoid that falls within the hard-body radius circle

Conjunction↗

Covariance Manipulation for Conjunction Assessment

The manipulation of space object covariances to try to provide additional or improved information to conjunction risk assessment is not an uncommon practice. Types of manipulation include fabricating a covariance when it is missing or unreliable to force the probability of collision (Pc) to a maximum value ('PcMax'), scaling a covariance to try to improve its realism or see the effect of covariance volatility on the calculated Pc, and constructing the equivalent of an epoch covariance at a convenient future point in the event ('covariance forecasting'). In bringing these methods to bear for Conjunction Assessment (CA) operations, however, some do not remain fully consistent with best practices for conducting risk management, some seem to be of relatively low utility, and some require additional information before they can contribute fully to risk analysis. This study describes some basic principles of modern risk management (following the Kaplan construct) and then examines the PcMax and covariance forecasting paradigms for alignment with these principles; it then further examines the expected utility of these methods in the modern CA framework. Both paradigms are found to be not without utility, but only in situations that are somewhat carefully circumscribed.

Conjunction↗

Lagrange-Based Options for Relay Satellites to Eliminate Earth-Mars Communications Outages During Solar Superior Conjunctions

Recent conjunction class Mars human mission plans have generally assumed that there will inevitably be periods of communications outages between Earth and Mars. This has significant cost and risk implications for not only Mars missions, but also precursor missions in the lunar environment. But are there ways to avoid these outages? The potential exists for communications to be interrupted by Solar Superior Conjunctions (SSCs). Depending on the communications system, used, there can be communications outages up to as many as 78 days. The higher bandwidth systems experience the greatest outage. If these communications channels are interrupted due to an SSC, there are of course resulting challenges to mission operations. An outage of a few days to a few weeks could allow minor disturbances to become major concerns or even trigger subsystems failures. An inability to consult with the ground at the wrong time could result in loss of mission, loss of an element, or loss of life. Each planet in the solar system has a set of five Lagrange points associated with it and the Sun. At any given point in time, a planet or either its L4 or L5 point is visible to any other planet in the solar system, regardless of the position of the sun relative to the two. Thus, L4 and L5 have high value as relay systems to prevent communications outages. There are four sets of solar Lagrange points that may be of potential use in this study: Mars-Sun L4 and L5 points, Earth-Sun L4 and L5, Venus-Sun L4 and L5, and Mercury-Sun L4 and L5. A candidate relay satellite system will be identified, with consideration of both new technology developments and existing telecommunications satellites. This system may have implications for not only the Mars human mission architectures, but also Gateway and human lunar surface architectures as these other studies are tasked with paving the way to human Mars missions. If Mars communications outages can be eliminated, then the degree of autonomy necessary in Mars and precursor systems may be reduced.

Relay Satellite↗

Determining Appropriate Risk Remediation Thresholds from Empirical Conjunction Data Using Survival Probability Methods

Satellites sometimes maneuver before conjunctions to remediate the risk of an on-orbit collision. Many missions use probability of collision (P_c) thresholds to decide when such maneuvers should be performed. These thresholds tend to be conservative because of policies that require satellites survive their lifetimes without collision with high confidence (e.g., 99.9%). This study presents a semi-empirical method to estimate remediation P_c thresholds that satisfy such lifetime risk requirements. The formulation combines survival probability analysis with empirical conjunction histories to estimate remediation thresholds as a function of satellite size, remaining on-orbit duration, lifetime collision probability limit, collision consequence, and other parameters.

Risk Remediation↗

Decision Aid for Conjunction Risk Mitigation by Differential Drag

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has conducted are view of the historical record of high-risk conjunctions involving CARA-protected missions and evaluated whether (and how much) differential drag can provide effective mitigation. From this analysis, CARA has identified a rule of thumb: missions with perigees below 560 km capable of tripling their drag area for 72 hours(or a larger scale factor for a lesser amount of time) can reliably use differential drag to remediate high-risk events.

mission design↗

Mitigating Corrosion in Mg Sheet in Conjunction with a Sheet-Joining Method that Satisfies Structural Requirements within Sub-assemblies

This work was undertaken as a LightMAT project funded by the DOE-Vehicles Technology Office. The goal of this work was to develop corrosion protection strategies that simultaneously mitigate corrosion and achieve Class-A surface finish for Mg components in automotive applications. While automotive metals such as steel and aluminum are protected against corrosion through a variety of coating schemes/packages, the efficacy of these existing coating schemes for Mg and Mg- joints is not clear and needs to be determined. Therefore, five commercially available coating schemes and two joining techniques (riveting and Arplas resistance spot welding) were evaluated. The corresponding individual Mg sheet coupons or Mg/Mg joint test coupons were provided by Magna that were then corrosion tested at PNNL using ASTM B117 procedure. The microstructures and mechanical properties of the coupons were analyzed to determine the effectiveness of the joining and corrosion mitigation strategies. Of the coating schemes evaluated, Henkel Bonderite MgC 2.0 pre-treatment + E-coat showed the best corrosion protection and surface finish for individual Mg coupons and Arplas resistance spot welded coupons. However, the strength of Mg/Mg welded joint was reduced after corrosion testing due to some corrosion at the weld nugget. Mg/Mg rivet joints in conjunction with Chemetall oxisilan pre-treatment + polyurethane coating showed good corrosion resistance and some discoloration on the surface finish. Coating schemes comprising pre-treatment with Alodine 5200 + E-coat or Bonderite 1455 + polyurethane coating, in conjunction with Al rivet joints, showed significant corrosion and extensive discoloration of the surface. We anticipate that the results from this work will provide useful guidance to the automotive industry in selecting the appropriate combinations of corrosion protection coatings and joining techniques to fabricate light-weight Mg-based automotive components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A model of SNR degradation during solar conjunction

The downlink signal from spacecraft in solar conjunction phases suffers a drastic reduction in signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Responsible in large part for this effect is the increase in system noise temperature (SNT) in the ground antenna-receiver system. An empirical model is presented of SNR degradation due to increasing SNT during solar conjunction phases.

Rockwell, S. T.↗

Elastohydrodynamic lubrication of elliptical contacts for materials of low elastic modulus. 1: Fully flooded conjunction

Elastohydrodynamic lubrication concepts of conjunctions of elliptical form are applied to materials of low elastic modulus. The influence of the ellipticity parameter and the dimensionless speed, load, and material parameters on minimum film thickness for these materials has been investigated. The ellipticity parameter was varied from a ball on plate configuration to a configuration approaching a line contact. The dimensionless speed and load parameters were varied by 1 order of magnitude. Seventeen different cases were used to generate minimum and central film thickness relations. Contour plots are presented that illustrate the pressure distribution and film thickness in the conjunction.

Hamrock, B. J.↗

An empirical spectral bandwidth model for superior conjunction

The downlink signal from spacecraft in superior solar conjunction phases suffers a great reduction in signal-to-noise ratio. Responsible in large part for this effect is the line broadening of the signal spectrum. An analytic empirical expression was developed for spectral bandwidth as a function of heliocentric distance from 1 to 20 solar radii. The study is based on spectral broadening data obtained from the superior conjunctions of Helios 1 (1975), Helios 2 (1976), and Pioneer 6 (1968). The empirical fit is based in part on a function describing the electron content in the solar corona.

Rockwell, R. S.↗

Radial and solar cycle variations in the solar wind phase fluctuation spectral index as determined from Voyager 1978 solar conjunction data

Columnar spectral index information that has been extracted from a sizable volume of Voyager 1978 solar conjunction Doppler phase fluctuation data is presented. The Voyager 1978 results, when compared to similar information derived from the 1976 Helios and Viking Solar Conjunctions, lead to the following inferences: (1) there has been a significant change in the spectral index from 1976 to 1978; (2) there is continuing evidence that favors a slight (positive) correlation between the spectral index and the solar cycle; and (3) there is little or no evidence in support of a radial variation of the spectral index.

Berman, A. L.↗

Radio sounding of the solar corona during 1995 solar conjunction of the Ulysses spacecraft

The Ulysses spacecraft will pass through superior solar conjunction on March 5 1995, a few days before its perihelion and passage through the ecliptic plane. Dual-frequency S/X-band ranging and Doppler observations will be conducted in support of the Ulysses Solar Corona Experiment (SCE) during a three-week interval centered on the conjunction. The occultation geometry is unique in the annals of interplanetary exploration. As viewed from Earth, the spacecraft will appear to cut diagonally through the southwest quadrant of the solar corona from the South Pole to the equator. The minimum proximate distance to the Sun of the radio ray path will be 21.6 solar radius. The entire latitude scan from pole to equator occurs for a limited range of solar offset distances (is less than 30 solar radius thus facilitating the separation of latitudinal from radial variations in the coronal density and associated parameters of interest.

Bird, M. K.↗

Ka-band and X-band observations of the solar corona aquired during the Cassini 2002 superior conjunction

A superior solar conjunction occurs when the sun lies near the signal path of a source as observed from the Earth. Interplanetary spacecraft sent to the planets typically encounter one or more solar conjunctions during their mission lifetimes. During these periods, the signals sent to and from the spacecraft encounter degradation due to the intervening charged particles of the solar corona.

propagation Ka-band solar corona solar plasma↗

Status of the NASA Robotic Mission Conjunction Assessment Effort

This viewgraph presentation discusses NASA's processes and tools used to mitigate threats to NASA's robotic assets. The topics include: 1) Background; 2) Goddard Stakeholders and Mission Support; 3) ESC and TDRS Mission Descriptions; 4) TDRS Conjunction Assessment Process; 5) ESMO Conjunction Assessment Process; 6) Recent Operations Experiences; 7) Statistics Collected for ESC Regime; and 8) Current and Future Analysis Items.

Newman, Lauri Kraft↗

Maneuver Planning for Conjunction Risk Mitigation with Ground-track Control Requirements

The planning of conjunction Risk Mitigation Maneuvers (RMM) in the presence of ground-track control requirements is analyzed. Past RMM planning efforts on the Aqua, Aura, and Terra spacecraft have demonstrated that only small maneuvers are available when ground-track control requirements are maintained. Assuming small maneuvers, analytical expressions for the effect of a given maneuver on conjunction geometry are derived. The analytical expressions are used to generate a large trade space for initial RMM design. This trade space represents a significant improvement in initial maneuver planning over existing methods that employ high fidelity maneuver models and propagation.

McKinley, David↗