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DOE OSTI2017

REFINED SYSTEM PARAMETERS AND TTV STUDY OF TRANSITING EXOPLANETARY SYSTEM HAT-P-20

We report new photometric observations of the transiting exoplanetary system HAT-P-20, obtained using CCD cameras at Yunnan Observatories and Ho Koon Nature Education cum Astronomical Centre, China, from 2010 to 2013, and Observatori Ca l’Ou, Sant Marti Sesgueioles, Spain, from 2013 to 2015. The observed data are corrected for systematic errors according to the coarse de-correlation and SYSREM algorithms, so as to enhance the signal of the transit events. In order to consistently model the star spots and transits of this exoplanetary system, we develop a highly efficient tool STMT based on the analytic models of Mandel and Agol and Montalto et al. The physical parameters of HAT-P-20 are refined by homogeneously analyzing our new data, the radial velocity data, and the earlier photometric data in the literature with the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. New radii and masses of both host star and planet are larger than those in the discovery paper due to the discrepancy of the radius among K-dwarfs between predicted values by standard stellar models and empirical calibration from observations. Through the analysis of all available mid-transit times calculated with the normal model and spotted model, we conclude that the periodic transit timing variations in these transit events revealed by employing the normal model are probably induced by spot crossing events. From the analysis of the distribution of occulted spots by HAT-P-20b, we constrain the misaligned architecture between the planetary orbit and the spin of the host star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Spectral characteristics of background error covariance and multiscale data assimilation

The spatial resolutions of numerical atmospheric and oceanic circulation models have steadily increased over the past decades. Horizontal grid spacing down to the order of 1 km is now often used to resolve cloud systems in the atmosphere and sub-mesoscale circulation systems in the ocean. These fine resolution models encompass a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, across which dynamical and statistical properties vary. In particular, dynamic flow systems for small scales can become spatially localized and temporarily intermittent. An analysis shows that the background correlation length scale is larger than 75 km for streamfunctions, even for a 2-km resolution model, and larger than 25 km for water vapor mixing ratios. The theoretical analyses suggest that such correlation length scales prevent the currently used data assimilation schemes from constraining spatial scales smaller than 150 km for streamfunctions and 50 km for water vapor mixing ratios. These results highlight the necessity of fundamentally modifying the currently used data assimilation algorithm for assimilating high-resolution observations into the aforementioned fine resolution models. A multiscale methodology based on scale decomposition is suggested, and challenges are discussed.

Li, Zhijin↗

NASA NTRS2008

Modeling the Spin Motor Current of the International Space Station's Control Moment Gyroscopes

The International Space Station (ISS) attitude control is provided by two means: The Russian Segment uses thrusters and the U.S. Segment uses double-gimbaled control moment gyroscopes (CMG). CMGs are used as momentum exchange devices, providing non propulsive attitude control for the vehicle. The CMGs are very important for the ISS program because, first, they save propellant - which needs to be transferred to the Station in special cargo vehicles - and, second, they provide the microgravity environment on the Station - which is necessary for scientific experiments planned for the ISS mission. Since 2002, when one of the CMG on the ISS failed, all CMGs are closely monitored. High gimbal rates, vibration spikes, unusual variations of spin motor current and bearing temperatures are of great concern, since these parameters are the CMG health indicators. The telemetry analysis of these and some other CMG parameters is used to determine constrains and make changes to the CMGs operation on board. These CMG limitations, in turn, may limit the ISS attitude control capabilities and may be critical to ISS operation. Therefore, it is important to know whether the CMG parameter is nominal or out of family, and why. The goal of this project is to analyze an important CMG parameter - spin motor current. Some operational decisions are made now based on the spin motor current signatures. The spin motor current depends on gimbal rates, ISS rates, and spin bearing friction. The spin bearing friction in turn depends on the bearing temperatures, wheel rates, normal load - which is a function of gimbal and wheel rates - lubrication, etc. The first task of this project is to create a spin motor current mathematical model based on CMG dynamics model and the current knowledge on bearing friction in microgravity.

Pereira, Miguel A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamical Large Deviations of Two-Dimensional Kinetically Constrained Models Using a Neural-Network State Ansatz

We use a neural-network ansatz originally designed for the variational optimization of quantum systems to study dynamical large deviations in classical ones. We use recurrent neural networks to describe the large deviations of the dynamical activity of model glasses, kinetically constrained models in two dimensions. We present the first finite size-scaling analysis of the large-deviation functions of the two-dimensional Fredrickson-Andersen model, and explore the spatial structure of the high-activity sector of the South-or-East model. These results provide a new route to the study of dynamical large-deviation functions, and highlight the broad applicability of the neural-network state ansatz across domains in physics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2022

Misinterpreting modified gravity as dark energy: a quantitative study

Standard cosmological data analyses typically constrain simple phenomenological dark-energy parameters, for example the present-day value of the equation of state parameter, w 0 , and its variation with scale factor, w a . However, results from such an analysis cannot easily indicate the presence of modified gravity. Even if general relativity does not hold, experimental data could still be fit sufficiently well by a phenomenological w 0 w a CDM, unmodified-gravity model. Hence, it would be very useful to know if there are generic signatures of modified gravity in standard analyses. Here we present, for the first time to our knowledge, a quantitative mapping showing how modified gravity models look when (mis)interpreted within the standard unmodified-gravity analysis. Scanning through a broad space of modified-gravity (Horndeski) models, and assuming a near-future survey consisting of CMB, BAO, and SNIa observations, we report values of the best-fit set of cosmological parameters including (w 0 , w a ) that would be inferred if modified gravity were at work. We find that modified gravity models that can masquerade as standard gravity lead to very specific biases in standard-parameter spaces. Here, we also comment on implications for measurements of the amplitude of mass fluctuations described by the parameter S 8 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1987

Variational four-dimensional analysis using quasi-geostrophic constraints

A variational four-dimensional analysis technique using quasi-geostrophic models as constraints is examined using gridded fields as data. The analysis method uses a standard iterative nonlinear minimization technique to find the solution to the constraining forecast model which best fits the data as measured by a predefined functional. The minimization algorithm uses the derivative of the functional with respect to each of the initial condition values. This derivative vector is found by inserting the weighted differences between the model solution and the inserted data into a backwards integrating adjoint model. The four-dimensional analysis system was examined by applying it to fields created from a primitive equations model forecast and to fields created from satellite retrievals. The results show that the technique has several interesting characteristics not found in more traditional four-dimensional assimilation techniques. These features include a close fit of the model solution to the observations throughout the analysis interval and an insensitivity to the frequency of data insertion or the amount of data. The four-dimensional analysis technique is very versatile and can be extended to more complex problems with little theoretical difficulty.

Derber, John C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hidden Features: How Subsurface and Landscape Heterogeneity Govern Hydrologic Connectivity and Stream Chemistry in a Montane Watershed

ABSTRACT Hydrologic connectivity is defined as the connection among stores of water within a watershed and controls the flux of water and solutes from the subsurface to the stream. Hydrologic connectivity is difficult to quantify because it is goverened by heterogeniety in subsurface storage and permeability and responds to seasonal changes in precipitation inputs and subsurface moisture conditions. How interannual climate variability impacts hydrologic connectivity, and thus stream flow generation and chemistry, remains unclear. Using a rare, four‐year synoptic stream chemistry dataset, we evaluated shifts in stream chemistry and stream flow source of Coal Creek, a montane, headwater tributary of the Upper Colorado River. We leveraged compositional principal component analysis and end‐member mixing to evaluate how seasonal and interannual variation in subsurface moisture conditions impacts stream chemistry. Overall, three main findings emerged from this work. First, three geochemically distinct end members were identified that constrained stream flow chemistry: reach inflows, and quick and slow flow groundwater contributions. Reach inflows were impacted by historic base and precious metal mine inputs. Bedrock fractures facilitated much of the transport of quick flow groundwater and higher‐storage subsurface features (e.g., alluvial fans) facilitated the transport of slow flow groundwater. Second, the contributions of different end members to the stream changed over the summer. In early summer, stream flow was composed of all three end members, while in late summer, it was composed predominantly of reach inflows and slow flow groundwater. Finally, we observed minimal differences in proportional composition in stream chemistry across all four years, indicating seasonal variability in subsurface moisture and spatial heterogeneity in landscape and geologic features had a greater influence than interannual climate fluctuation on hydrologic connectivity and stream water chemistry. These findings indicate that mechanisms controlling solute transport (e.g., hydrologic connectivity and flow path activation) may be resilient (i.e., able to rebound after perturbations) to predicted increases in climate variability. By establishing a framework for assessing compositional stream chemistry across variable hydrologic and subsurface moisture conditions, our study offers a method to evaluate watershed biogeochemical resilience to variations in hydrometeorological conditions.

Johnson, Keira [College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmos↗

NASA NTRS2005

Satellite Gravity Drilling the Earth

Analysis of satellite-measured gravity and topography can provide crust-to-core mass variation models for new insi@t on the geologic evolution of the Earth. The internal structure of the Earth is mostly constrained by seismic observations and geochemical considerations. We suggest that these constraints may be augmented by gravity drilling that interprets satellite altitude free-air gravity observations for boundary undulations of the internal density layers related to mass flow. The approach involves separating the free-air anomalies into terrain-correlated and -decorrelated components based on the correlation spectrum between the anomalies and the gravity effects of the terrain. The terrain-decorrelated gravity anomalies are largely devoid of the long wavelength interfering effects of the terrain gravity and thus provide enhanced constraints for modeling mass variations of the mantle and core. For the Earth, subcrustal interpretations of the terrain-decorrelated anomalies are constrained by radially stratified densities inferred from seismic observations. These anomalies, with frequencies that clearly decrease as the density contrasts deepen, facilitate mapping mass flow patterns related to the thermodynamic state and evolution of the Earth's interior.

vonFrese, R. R. B.↗

DOE OSTI2021

KKT Preconditioners for PDE-Constrained Optimization with the Helmholtz Equation

This paper considers preconditioners for the linear systems that arise from optimal control and inverse problems involving the Helmholtz equation. Specifically, we explore an all-at-once approach. The main contribution centers on the analysis of two block preconditioners. Variations of these preconditioners have been proposed and analyzed in prior works for optimal control problems where the underlying partial differential equation is a Laplace-like operator. In this paper, we extend some of the prior convergence results to Helmholtz-based optimization applications. Our analysis examines situations where control variables and observations are restricted to subregions of the computational domain. We prove that solver convergence rates do not deteriorate as the mesh is refined or as the wavenumber increases. More specifically, for one of the preconditioners we prove accelerated convergence as the wavenumber increases. Additionally, in situations where the control and observation subregions are disjoint, we observe that solver convergence rates have a weak dependence on the regularization parameter. We give a partial analysis of this behavior. We illustrate the performance of the preconditioners on control problems motivated by acoustic testing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of variability in the burst oscillations of the accreting millisecond pulsar XTE J1814-338

The accreting millisecond pulsar XTE J1814-338 exhibits oscillations at the known spin frequency during Type I X-ray bursts. The properties of the burst oscillations reflect the nature of the thermal asymmetry on the stellar surface. We present an analysis of the variability of the burst oscillations of this source, focusing on three characteristics: fractional amplitude, harmonic content and frequency. Fractional amplitude and harmonic content constrain the size, shape and position of the emitting region, whilst variations in frequency indicate motion of the emitting region on the neutron star surface. We examine both long-term variability over the course of the outburst, and short-term variability during the bursts. For most of the bursts, fractional amplitude is consistent with that of the accretion pulsations, implying a low degree of fuel spread. There is however a population of bursts whose fractional amplitudes are substantially lower, implying a higher degree of fuel spread, possibly forced by the explosive burning front of a precursor burst. For the first harmonic, substantial differences between the burst and accretion pulsations suggest that hotspot geometry is not the only mechanism giving rise to harmonic content in the latter. Fractional amplitude variability during the bursts is low; we can only rule out the hypothesis that the fractional amplitude remains constant at the l(sigma) level for bursts that do not exhibit photospheric radius expansion (PRE). There are no significant variations in frequency in any of the bursts except for the one burst that exhibits PRE. This burst exhibits a highly significant but small (= 0.1Hz) drop in frequency in the burst rise. The timescale of the frequency shift is slower than simple burning layer expansion models predict, suggesting that other mechanisms may be at work.

Watts, Anna L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Observations of the Age of Air from the Northern Hemisphere Midlatitude Surface

Understanding and modeling the interhemispheric transport (IHT) of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. One IHT measure -- the mean age since air was last at the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface – represents a fundamental property of tropospheric transport that can be estimated from measurements of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). Here we use SF6 measurements obtained from the recent NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) to construct observational estimates of the mean age throughout the troposphere. We compare the ATom based ages, which span all four seasons during the period 2016-2018 over both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, with previous in situ-based estimates obtained from the HIAPER Pole‐to‐Pole Observations (HIPPO) project, which are available only for the Pacific. In order to interpret the observed variations in mean age and their relationship with the large-scale flow we use simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model, constrained with meteorological fields derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), performed over the entire MERRA-2 period (including ATom). We confirm results from previous studies showing that the model ages are biased old compared to the observational estimates. However, we also show that this model bias is reduced in more recent years, which we interpret in terms of changes in the latitudinal distribution of SF6 emissions over the 2000s.

interhemispheric transport (IHT)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Four direct measurements of the fine-structure constant 13 billion years ago

Observations of the redshift z = 7.085 quasar J1120+0641 are used to search for variations of the fine structure constant, a, over the redshift range 5:5 to 7:1. Observations at z = 7:1 probe the physics of the universe at only 0.8 billion years old. These are the most distant direct measurements of a to date and the first measurements using a near-IR spectrograph. A new AI analysis method is employed. Four measurements from the x - shooter spectrograph on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) constrain changes in a relative to the terrestrial value (α 0 ). The weighted mean electromagnetic force in this location in the universe deviates from the terrestrial value by Δα/α = (α z - α 0 )/α 0 = (-2:18 ± 7:27) × 10 -5 , consistent with no temporal change. Combining these measurements with existing data, we find a spatial variation is preferred over a no-variation model at the 3:9σ level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Nonmotorized Travel in New York State Using 2017 National Household Travel Survey Data

This report presents systematic analysis of nonmotorized travel behavior within New York State (NYS) utilizing 2017 National Household Travel Survey data. As walking and biking assume increasingly prominent roles in advancing active transportation objectives, accessible mobility, and sustainable transportation systems, comprehensive understanding of these modal patterns becomes essential for evidence-based policy development and strategic planning initiatives. Recognizing the substantial geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic heterogeneity characterizing NYS—spanning from the concentrated urban fabric of New York City (NYC) to dispersed suburban and rural contexts—this analysis employs the structured "4Ws" analytical framework to examine participant demographics, spatial and temporal distributions, and motivational factors underlying active transportation choices relative to motorized alternatives. This methodological approach captures modal behavior patterns, user characteristics, trip purposes, and temporal variations across the state's diverse contexts. Additionally, the research examines behavioral differences among distinct user classifications, including walk-only and bike-only travelers, while conducting comparative analysis of nonmotorized travel patterns between ALICE (Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed) and non-ALICE household categories.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS1982

Kerr Reservoir LANDSAT experiment analysis for November 1980

An experiment was conducted on the waters of Kerr Reservoir to determine if reliable algorithms could be developed that relate water quality parameters to remotely sensed data. LANDSAT radiance data was used in the analysis since it is readily available and covers the area of interest on a regular basis. By properly designing the experiment, many of the unwanted variations due to atmosphere, solar, and hydraulic changes were minimized. The algorithms developed were constrained to satisfy rigorous statistical criteria before they could be considered dependable in predicting water quality parameters. A complete mix of different types of algorithms using the LANDSAT bands was generated to provide a thorough understanding of the relationships among the data involved. The study demonstrated that for the ranges measured, the algorithms that satisfactorily represented the data are mostly linear and only require a maximum of one or two LANDSAT bands. Rationing techniques did not improve the results since the initial design of the experiment minimized the errors that this procedure is effective against. Good correlations were established for inorganic suspended solids, iron, turbidity, and secchi depth.

Lecroy, S. R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting the Effects of Photovoltaic Module Efficiency on Installed System Cost and Market Adoption

We conduct bottom-up analysis of how PV module efficiency could influence residential rooftop installed system costs, using models with improved representation of how soft costs and power electronics are affected by efficiency. We show that the amount of system installed cost savings resulting from high efficiency modules depends on whether or not the system is area-constrained, with much larger savings for the area-constrained case. We then estimate the fraction of physically area-constrained rooftops in the United States to be 61%, with variation between 20% to over 80% of rooftops depending on the state. We find that fraction of area-constrained systems could grow to over 88% by 2050 if building and transportation loads are electrified.

efficiency↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining Black Carbon Aging in Global Models to Reflect Timescales for Internal Mixing

The radiative effects of black carbon depend critically on its atmospheric lifetime, which is controlled by the rate at which freshly emitted combustion particles become internally mixed with other aerosol components. Global aerosol models strive to represent this process, but the timescale for aerosol mixing is not easily constrained using observations. In this study, we apply a timescale parameterization derived from particle‐resolved simulations to quantify, in a global aerosol model, the timescale for internal mixing. We show that, while highly variable, the average timescale for internal mixing is approximately 3 hr, which is much shorter than the 24‐hr aging timescale traditionally applied in bulk aerosol models. We then use the mixing timescale to constrain the aging criterion in the Modal Aerosol Module. Our analysis reveals that, to best reflect timescales for internal mixing, modal models should assume that particles transition from the hydrophobic (fresh) to the hydrophilic (aged) class once they accumulate a coating thickness equal to four monolayers of sulfuric acid, as opposed to the model's current aging criterion of eight monolayers. We show that, in remote regions like the Arctic and Antarctic, predictions of black carbon loading and its seasonal variation are particularly sensitive to the model representation of aging. By constraining aging in global models to reflect mixing timescales simulated by the particle‐resolved model, we eliminate one of the free parameters governing black carbon's long‐range transport and spatiotemporal distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Molybdenum isotope compositions of uranium ore concentrates by double spike MC-ICP-MS

The molybdenum (Mo) isotope composition of uranium ore concentrate (UOC) has been proposed as a nuclear forensic signature due to the ubiquitous presence of Mo in the nuclear fuel cycle and to the possibility that different UOC production pathways lead to characteristic Mo isotope fractionation. Furthermore, Mo forms a volatile hexafluoride which leads to the retainment of Mo in the nuclear fuel cycle through U enrichment and reactor operation processes. As a result, it is possible that the nuclear fuel cycle generates a rich array of Mo isotope signatures. The first step in interpreting Mo isotope signatures generated during the nuclear fuel cycle is to characterize the Mo isotope composition of starting materials. In this study, a suite of UOC samples were analyzed for their Mo isotope composition in order to constrain the range of Mo isotope compositions entering the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Analytical protocols were developed to purify Mo from a U rich matrix prior to Mo isotope analysis by double spike MC-ICP-MS. A >3‰ variation in the 98 Mo/ 95 Mo ratio was observed in the suite of UOC samples with δ 98 Mo ranging from -1.15 to +1.96‰ relative to the NIST 3134 Mo standard reference material. The δ98Mo range observed in the UOC samples is very similar to the δ 98 Mo range observed in crustal igneous rocks and Mo-bearing minerals, suggesting that Mo isotope variability in UOC is driven by variability in the parent U ores. However, Mo isotope fractionation during UOC production is evident with one of the UOC samples being isotopically heavy relative to its parent U ore by 0.75‰, suggesting that different UOC production processes also contribute to the total Mo isotope variability observed. Overall, it is expected that the Mo isotope signatures generated during enrichment and reactor process will be clearly discernible from those generated during UOC production.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2023

A polarimetrically oriented X-ray stare at the accreting pulsar EXO 2030+375

Accreting X-ray pulsars (XRPs) are presumed to be ideal targets for polarization measurements, as their high magnetic field strength is expected to polarize the emission up to a polarization degree of ∼80%. However, such expectations are being challenged by recent observations of XRPs with the Imaging X-ray Polarimeter Explorer (IXPE). Here, we report on the results of yet another XRP, namely, EXO 2030+375, observed with IXPE and contemporarily monitored with Insight-HXMT and SRG/ART-XC. In line with recent results obtained with IXPE for similar sources, an analysis of the EXO 2030+375 data returns a low polarization degree of 0%–3% in the phase-averaged study and a variation in the range of 2%–7% in the phase-resolved study. Using the rotating vector model, we constrained the geometry of the system and obtained a value of ∼60° for the magnetic obliquity. When considering the estimated pulsar inclination of ∼130°, this also indicates that the magnetic axis swings close to the observer’s line of sight. Our joint polarimetric, spectral, and timing analyses hint toward a complex accreting geometry, whereby magnetic multipoles with an asymmetric topology and gravitational light bending significantly affect the behavior of the observed source.

EXO 2030+375↗