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NASA NTRS1993

Cost benefits of advanced software: A review of methodology used at Kennedy Space Center

To assist rational investments in advanced software, a formal, explicit, and multi-perspective cost-benefit analysis methodology is proposed. The methodology can be implemented through a six-stage process which is described and explained. The current practice of cost-benefit analysis at KSC is reviewed in the light of this methodology. The review finds that there is a vicious circle operating. Unsound methods lead to unreliable cost-benefit estimates. Unreliable estimates convince management that cost-benefit studies should not be taken seriously. Then, given external demands for cost-benefit estimates, management encourages software enginees to somehow come up with the numbers for their projects. Lacking the expertise needed to do a proper study, courageous software engineers with vested interests use ad hoc and unsound methods to generate some estimates. In turn, these estimates are unreliable, and the cycle continues. The proposed methodology should help KSC to break out of this cycle.

Joglekar, Prafulla N.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Scalable Solution for Grid Optimization and DER Integration (CRADA Final Report)

Utilidata Inc. is an energy software company that provides clean energy and digital solutions for utilities. This work was the result of Utilidata Inc. being awarded a New York State Energy Research and Development Agency award to integrate Utilidata volt-VAR optimization (VVO) software with smart inverters to explore enhanced voltage control. This project was conducted in partnership with Utilidata Inc., National Grid, the New York State Energy and Research Development Authority, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). As part of the project NREL conducted modeling and simulation analysis, developed cost-benefit analysis framework, and conducted laboratory testing to understand the potential for smart inverter integration to a centralized VVO control scheme. The remainder of the report provides an executive summary of the work, an introduction to the challenges, sections detailing specific aspects of the work, and the overall findings and conclusions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Presentation accompanying the technical report with the same name. The abstract for the report and the full study is repeated below. Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cybersecurity assessment and risk management tool

Techniques and apparatuses are described for a cybersecurity risk management tool to assess cybersecurity risk and prioritize cybersecurity correction plans. The cybersecurity risk management tool categorizes cybersecurity framework security controls into maturity indicator levels, identifies implementation states achieved by an entity with respect to the cybersecurity framework security controls, and determines which of the maturity indicator levels represents the implementation state achieved by the entity with respect to each of the cybersecurity framework security controls. A cost-benefit analysis for modifying from the implementation state achieved by the entity to a next implementation state to be achieved by the entity with respect to the cybersecurity framework security controls is also enabled. The cost-benefit analysis leverages factored weights including aspects indicative of security perspectives, Gaussian distributions, and the maturity indicator levels.

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gupta↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of ROI for Workforce Development Efforts National & Homeland Security

The IDEAL Professional Engagement project at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) aims to enhance the laboratory's workforce diversity and inclusivity efforts, focusing on the U.S. National and Homeland Security mission areas. This project involves researching and evaluating opportunities for INL to engage in various professional events, particularly cyber conferences, to support recruitment and professional development. The project involved several key tasks: compiling comprehensive information on national laboratories and their mission statements, developing a deep understanding of INL’s role and efforts in national and homeland security, and identifying and engaging key stakeholders. Interviews were conducted with a set of targeted questions, and the findings were analyzed to identify common themes, insights, and actionable recommendations. Additionally, relevant upcoming cyber conferences were identified, various sponsorship levels and their associated benefits were evaluated, and the recruitment potential of these conferences was assessed. A detailed cost analysis was performed, including registration fees and travel expenses, and a cost-benefit analysis was conducted to evaluate the financial viability and potential return on investment (ROI) of conference participation and sponsorship. Based on the research and analysis, actionable recommendations for conference participation and sponsorship were formulated, ensuring alignment with INL’s mission and diversity goals. Preliminary results include a comprehensive list of relevant cyber conferences, a detailed cost analysis, and a set of actionable recommendations for future conference participation and sponsorship. The analysis highlights the financial requirements and geographical distribution of these conferences, providing valuable insights for INL's engagement strategies. This project underscores the importance of strategic engagement in professional events to attract and develop a diverse and skilled workforce, ultimately supporting INL’s mission areas in U.S. National and Homeland Security.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Maximising the investment returns of a grid‐connected battery considering degradation cost

Energy storage systems (ESSs) are being deployed widely due to numerous benefits including operational flexibility, high ramping capability, and decreasing costs. This study investigates the economic benefits provided by battery ESSs when they are deployed for market‐related applications, considering the battery degradation cost. A comprehensive investment planning framework is presented, which estimates the maximum revenue that the ESS can generate over its lifetime and provides the necessary tools to investors for aiding the decision making process regarding an ESS project. The applications chosen for this study are energy arbitrage and frequency regulation. Lithium‐ion batteries are considered due to their wide popularity arising from high efficiency, high energy density, and declining costs. A new degradation cost model based on energy throughput and cycle count is developed for Lithium‐ion batteries participating in electricity markets. The lifetime revenue of ESS is calculated considering battery degradation and a cost–benefit analysis is performed to provide investors with an estimate of the net present value, return on investment and payback period. The effect of considering the degradation cost on the estimated revenue is also studied. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the IEEE Reliability Test System and historical data from PJM Interconnection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2008

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Cirillo, William M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Systems engineering and integration: Cost estimation and benefits analysis

Space Transportation Avionics hardware and software cost has traditionally been estimated in Phase A and B using cost techniques which predict cost as a function of various cost predictive variables such as weight, lines of code, functions to be performed, quantities of test hardware, quantities of flight hardware, design and development heritage, complexity, etc. The output of such analyses has been life cycle costs, economic benefits and related data. The major objectives of Cost Estimation and Benefits analysis are twofold: (1) to play a role in the evaluation of potential new space transportation avionics technologies, and (2) to benefit from emerging technological innovations. Both aspects of cost estimation and technology are discussed here. The role of cost analysis in the evaluation of potential technologies should be one of offering additional quantitative and qualitative information to aid decision-making. The cost analyses process needs to be fully integrated into the design process in such a way that cost trades, optimizations and sensitivities are understood. Current hardware cost models tend to primarily use weights, functional specifications, quantities, design heritage and complexity as metrics to predict cost. Software models mostly use functionality, volume of code, heritage and complexity as cost descriptive variables. Basic research needs to be initiated to develop metrics more responsive to the trades which are required for future launch vehicle avionics systems. These would include cost estimating capabilities that are sensitive to technological innovations such as improved materials and fabrication processes, computer aided design and manufacturing, self checkout and many others. In addition to basic cost estimating improvements, the process must be sensitive to the fact that no cost estimate can be quoted without also quoting a confidence associated with the estimate. In order to achieve this, better cost risk evaluation techniques are needed as well as improved usage of risk data by decision-makers. More and better ways to display and communicate cost and cost risk to management are required.

Dean, ED↗

NASA NTRS1975

Summary and recommendations

An economic analysis using econometric and cost benefit analysis techniques was performed to determine the feasibility of space processing of certain products. The overall objectives of the analysis were (1) to determine specific products or processes uniquely connected with space manufacturing, (2) to select a specific product or process from each of the areas of semiconductors, metals, and biochemicals, and (3) to determine the overall price/cost structure of each product or process considered. The economic elements of the analysis involved a generalized decision making format for analyzing space manufacturing, a comparative cost study of the selected processes in space vs. earth manufacturing, and a supply and demand study of the economic relationships of one of the manufacturing processes. Space processing concepts were explored. The first involved the use of the shuttle as the factory with all operations performed during individual flights. The second concept involved a permanent unmanned space factory which would be launched separately. The shuttle in this case would be used only for maintenance and refurbishment. Finally, some consideration was given to a permanent manned space factory.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

trade studies↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technoeconomic Analysis of the Miba Segmented Journal Bearing

This presentation describes a technoeconomic analysis using NLR's Windfarm Operations & Maintenance cost-Benefit Analysis Tool (WOMBAT) to compare operational expenses and levelized cost of energy for wind turbines using standard spherical roller bearings with a novel segmented journal bearing developed by Miba.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cost-Benefit Assessment of Additive Manufacturing for Injection Molds

This report presents an additive-manufacturing (AM) technology, where AM Cyclic Olefin Resin (COR) molds would be used for injection molding. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) team has focused on the costs and economics of this developing technology. This report presents a cost-benefit analysis of using the polySpectra AM COR molds made of COR, at the start of the project (Present') and the potential lifetime, cost-effectiveness, and performance by the end of the project period (Period 3'). The analysis of the AM COR molds is compared to traditional Computer Numerical Control (CNC) machined aluminum molds across the time periods. A cost-benefit model framework has been developed to evaluate AM COR molds. This model accounts for mold delivery to customers, current and future levels of technology readiness, the type of material injected, and various business cases. AM COR molds offer a major advantage in lead time, reducing production setup from weeks or months (with CNC machining) to as little as two to five days. This enables faster prototyping, quicker design cycles, and accelerated time-to-market, critical in industries like electronics, aerospace, medical devices, and automotive. Even modest improvements in the durability of polySpectra AM COR molds show the potential for these molds to complement traditional tooling. With further development, AM COR mold technology could provide significant time and cost savings while supporting increased domestic manufacturing capacity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Valuation of Hydrogen Technology on the Electric Grid Using Production Cost Modeling: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00736

This research project will estimate the value to the United States electric grid of deploying hydrogen technology (such as electrolyzers and hydrogen-fueled generation) under projected conditions of high renewable penetration. The analysis will advance the state of the art in systems-level cost-benefit analysis of hydrogen technology for the electric grid by incorporating production cost modeling results in the analysis. Large-scale grid simulation tools will be used to evaluate total system production cost and grid operation when hydrogen technology is deployed for applications such as energy storage and demand response. Scenarios will include one or more future grid mixes in the Western Interconnect (WI) with a high proportion of intermittent renewables. Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) will work with four utility companies to refine scenarios. Results of the analysis will include comparing the net cost of hydrogen to other technologies for long duration storage, and of power-to-gas (P2G) scenarios including merchant hydrogen sale and hydrogen-fueled generation.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking Autonomous Scattering Experiments Illustrated on TAS

With the advancement of artificial intelligence and machine learning methods, autonomous approaches are recognized to have great potential for performing more efficient scattering experiments. In our view, it is crucial for such approaches to provide thorough evidence about respective performance improvements in order to increase acceptance within a scientific community. Therefore, we propose a benchmarking procedure designed as a cost-benefit analysis that is applicable to any scattering method sequentially collecting data during an experiment. For a given approach, the performance assessment is based on how much benefit, given a certain cost budget, it is able to acquire in predefined test cases. Different approaches thus get a chance for comparison and can make their advantages explicit and visible. Key components of the procedure, i.e., cost measures, benefit measures, and test cases, are made precise for the setting of three-axes spectrometry (TAS) as an illustration. Finally, we discuss neglected aspects and possible extensions for the TAS setting and comment on the procedure’s applicability to other scattering methods. A Python implementation of the procedure to simplify its utilization by interested researchers from the field is also provided.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Capture, Transport, And Storage (CTS) Cost Modeling Of The Onshore Gulf Coast

The onshore Gulf of Mexico region presents significant opportunities for CO2 capture, transport, and storage due to its numerous CO2 sources, such as power plants, refineries, and its substantial CO2 storage potential. However, operators face critical decisions in designing an efficient and cost-effective CO2 pipeline network. This study examines the economic implications of two primary strategies: constructing a trunkline with excess initial capacity versus developing dedicated pipelines incrementally as new CO2 sources come online. Building a trunkline first offers the advantage of future-proofing the network, allowing for the accommodation of increased CO2 volumes from various sources over time. However, this approach incurs higher upfront costs and risks underutilizing the transport capacity in the initial stages, potentially resulting in economic inefficiencies. Conversely, constructing dedicated pipelines for each new CO2 source as it becomes operational may avoid the initial overcapacity issue but fails to capitalize on the economies of scale. This could lead to higher overall costs due to the duplication of infrastructure and increased complexity in network management. This research employs a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, integrating factors such as capital expenditure, operational costs, projected CO2 volumes, and potential economies of scale. Through this analysis, we aim to provide operators with insights into the most economically viable strategy for CO2 pipeline network design in the region. The findings underscore the importance of strategic planning and highlight the trade-offs between immediate capacity utilization and long-term cost savings, ultimately guiding stakeholders towards informed decision-making in the development of CO2 transport infrastructure. Presented at the 41st USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, 3-6 November 2024, Baton Rouge, LA, United States.

Shih, Chung Yan↗

NASA NTRS2005

Evaluation of solar electric propulsion technologies for discovery class missions

A detailed study examines the potential benefits that advanced electric propulsion (EP) technologies offer to the cost-capped missions in NASA's Discovery program. The study looks at potential cost and performance benefits provided by three EP technologies that are currently in development: NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT), an Enhanced NSTAR system, and a Low Power Hall effect thruster. These systems are analyzed on three straw man Discovery class missions and their performance is compared to a state of the art system using the NSTAR ion thruster. An electric propulsion subsystem cost model is used to conduct a cost-benefit analysis for each option. The results show that each proposed technology offers a different degree of performance and/or cost benefit for Discovery class missions.

discovery↗

DOE OSTI2025

Federal Home-to-Work Electric Vehicle Program Guide

This document serves as a comprehensive resource for Federal agencies in developing their own program resources that promote the efficient and effective use of electric vehicles (EVs) for home-to-work travel while ensuring compliance with Federal regulations and sustainability objectives. One mission of the U.S. Department of Energy's Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) Fleet program is to help federal fleet managers meet or exceed statutory requirements related to energy and environmental performance while improving overall fleet efficiency, reducing costs, and meeting mission requirements. To further this mission, FEMP provides resources to support Federal agencies with increasing alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) acquisitions and reducing petroleum use. EVs are AFVs and help agencies meet federal fleet requirements. Federal fleets include government-owned EVs used for home-to-work travel. The purpose of this document is to serve as a guide for Federal agencies in developing their own internal program documents to manage government-owned EVs used for home-to-work travel. Federal agencies should consult their counsel and consider their own policies and authorities in the implementation of any policies or best practices regarding government-owned EVs used for home-to-work travel. The guide provides key considerations for agencies, including launching a pilot program to fine-tune best practices, conducting a cost-benefit analysis to compare home versus public charging, and exploring cost-effective solutions, such as installing standard outlets instead of dedicated charging stations. The guide underscores the importance of legal and financial considerations, such as verifying agency authority to install home charging infrastructure at an employee's home, ensuring the availability and appropriateness of using agency funds for home charging infrastructure, and understanding the tax implications of reimbursements.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗