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NASA NTRS2007

Observations on Cost Modeling and Performance Measurement of Long Term Archives

This paper describes a prototype suite of Excel-based tools that could be used for estimating lifecycle costs for newly planned or modified long-term archival facilities. These tools may also prove valuable for monitoring the long-term performance of such facilities once operational. Cost estimation is by analogy, using statistical curve-fitting techniques across a database of comparable data activities. The database currently includes 29 operational data centers ranging from small (2 FTEs) to large (66 FTEs), and is readily expandable to include additional activities specifically involving data preservation and added value. Each comparable data center is described in terms of its staffing, throughput workload, archival and distribution requirements, levels of user service, overall complexity, degree of automation, and other data, comprising 94 distinct descriptors in all. The descriptors were developed by normalizing heterogeneous data from the various centers and mapping them into an Excel framework consistent with the OAIS reference model. A user-friendly tool is provided for generating input to and updating the comparables database. This tool can also be used to benchmark the performance (in terms of cost versus throughput) of an operational data center, and to update the staffing, cost and workload data on a periodic basis. The comparables database could thus provide a history of staffing and throughput over time, as a means of performance monitoring and providing feedback for continuous improvement. Ancillary tools are also provided for performing "what-if' cost exercises for planning purposes, and for graphical display of data and results. We provide a high-level description of the tools; present our experiences and observations on gathering the information and maintaining the database; and discuss how this tool set might be applied to long term archives.

Fontaine, Kathy↗

NASA NTRS2002

Power Without Wires (POWOW)

Electric propulsion has emerged as a cost-effective solution to a wide range of satellite applications. Deep Space 1 successfully demonstrated electric propulsion as the primary propulsion source for a satellite. The POWOW concept is a solar-electric propelled spacecraft capable of significant cargo and short trip times for traveling to Mars. There it would enter areosynchronous orbit (Mars GEO equivalent) and beam power to surface installations via lasers. The concept has been developed with industrial partner expertise in high efficiency solar cells, advanced concentrator modules, innovative arrays, and high power electric propulsion systems. The present baseline spacecraft design providing 898 kW using technologies expected to be available in 2003 will be described. Areal power densities approaching 350 W/sq m at 80 C operating temperatures and wing level specific powers of over 350 W/kg are projected. Details of trip times and payloads to Mars are presented. Electric propulsion options include Hall, MPD, and ion thrusters of various power levels and trade studies have been conducted to define the most advantageous options. Because the design is modular, learning curve methodology has been applied to determine expected cost reductions and is included.

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2000

POWOW: A Modular, High Power Spacecraft Concept

A robust space infrastructure encompasses a broad range of mission needs along with an imperative to reduce costs of satellites meeting those needs. A critical commodity for science, commercial and civil satellites is power at an affordable cost. The POWOW (POwer WithOut Wires) spacecraft concept was created to provide, at one end of the scale, multi-megawatts of power yet also be composed of modules that can meet spacecraft needs in the kilowatt range. With support from the NASA-sponsored Space Solar Power Exploratory Research and Technology Program, the POWOW spacecraft concept was designed to meet Mars mission needs - while at the same time having elements applicable to a range of other missions. At Mars, the vehicle would reside in an aerosynchronous orbit and beam power to a variety of locations on the surface. It is the purpose of this paper to present the latest concept design results. The Space Power Institute along with four companies: Able Engineering, Inc., Entech, Inc., Primex Aerospace Co., and TECSTAR have produced a modular, power-rich electrically propelled spacecraft design that meets these requirements. In addition, it also meets a range of civil and commercial needs. The spacecraft design is based on multijunction Ill-V solar cells, the new Stretched Lens Aurora (SLA) module, a lightweight array design based on a multiplicity of 8 kW end-of-life subarrays and electric thrusters. The solar cells have excellent radiation resistance and efficiencies above 30%. The SLA has a concentration ratio up to 15x while maintaining an operating temperature of 80 C. The design of the 8 kW array building block will be presented and its applicability to commercial and government missions will be discussed. Electric propulsion options include Hall, MPD and ion thrusters of various power levels and trade studies have been conducted to define the most advantageous options. The present baseline spacecraft design providing 900 kW using technologies expected to be available in 2003 will be described. Areal power densities of nearly 400 W/meters squared at 80 C operating temperatures and wing level specific powers of over 400 W/kg are projected. Details of trip times and payloads to Mars will be presented as well as trade studies of various electric propulsion options. Trip times compare favorably with chemical propulsion options. Because the design is modular, learning curve methodology can be applied to determine expected cost reductions. These results will also be included. This paper has not been presented at a previous meeting.

Brandhorst, Henry W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A comparison of 8.415-, 32.0- and 565646-GHz deep space telemetry links

An economic and performance comparison is made of spacecraft telecommunication links at 8.415, 32.0, and 565646 GHz (0.53-micron wavelength) for the return of 3.43 x 10 to the 11th power bits from a Saturn Orbiter/Titan Probe mission in year 2000. Technical performance and costs for both ends of the links are included. Spacecraft antenna or telescope efficiencies, pointing losses, ground-based or Earth-orbiting relay terminals efficiencies, noise temperatures, recurring and nonrecurring engineering, and maintenance and operations costs are modeled. Weather effects, dc-to-RF or laser power conversion efficiencies, gravity and other environment distortions gain reductions, and the cost of pointing and tracking are analyzed. The effort is focused primarily on the microwave frequency links. There are large uncertainties in the cost results, but conclusions indicate that for a mid-1990's launch, the Ka-band system is as cost effective as X-band. The Ka-band system has a data rate advantage as compared to the X-band system for the same dc power input to the spacecraft. The magnitude of the advantage is a complex function of the weather at the DSN stations and the elevation angle of the ground antenna. A simple numerical comparison of the advantage is difficult and curves are provided. The optical frequency link is more costly based on the launch-to-orbit costs for the orbiting terminal. A more detailed study of the optical system is recommended to quantify astrometric tracking benefits and improve the accuracy of the cost estimate.

Dickinson, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1971

The 20 kW battery study program

Six battery configurations were selected for detailed study and these are described. A computer program was modified for use in estimation of the weights, costs, and reliabilities of each of the configurations, as a function of several important independent variables, such as system voltage, battery voltage ratio (battery voltage/bus voltage), and the number of parallel units into which each of the components of the power subsystem was divided. The computer program was used to develop the relationship between the independent variables alone and in combination, and the dependent variables: weight, cost, and availability. Parametric data, including power loss curves, are given.

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NASA NTRS1981

Analysis of costs of gallium arsenide and silicon solar arrays for space power applications

A parametric analysis was performed to compare the costs of silicon and gallium arsenide arrays for Earth orbital missions. The missions included electric power in low Earth orbit (LEO), electric power in geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO), and power for electric propulsion of a LEO to GEO orbit transfer mission. Inputs to the analysis for all missions included launch and purchase costs of the array. For the orbit transfer mission, the launch and purchase costs of the electric propulsion system were added. Radiation flux as a function of altitude and rediation tolerance as a function of cell type were used to determine power degradation for each mission. Curves were generated that show the sensitivity of launch-array cost and total mission cost to a variety of input parameters for each mission. These parameters included mission duration, cover glass thickness, array specific cost, array specific mass, and solar cell efficiency. Solar concentration was considered and the sensitivities of cost to concentration ratio, concentrator costs, and concentrator mass were also evaluated. Results indicate that solar cell development should give a high priority to reducing array costs and that the development of low cost, lightweight, solar concentrators should be pursued.

Jefferies, K. S.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Cost reductions in nickel-hydrogen battery

Significant progress was made toward the development of a commercially marketable hydrogen nickel oxide battery. The costs projected for this battery are remarkably low when one considers where the learning curve is for commercialization of this system. Further developmental efforts on this project are warranted as the H2/NiO battery is already cost competitive with other battery systems.

Beauchamp, Richard L.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Low-cost fabrication and direct bond installation of flat, single-curvature and compound-curvature ablative heat shield panels

Procedures for low cost fabrication and direct bond installation of flat, single curved, and compound curvature ablative heat shields on a DC-3 aircraft are discussed. The panel sizes and attachment locations are identified. In addition to the bonding of the four contoured panels, two flat panels were bonded to the nearly flat, lower surface of the center wing section. The detailed requirements and objectives of the investigation are described.

Norwood, L. B.↗

NASA NTRS1987

The off-axis channel macroplate

High-gain microchannel plates (MCPs) which utilize curvature of the channel to inhibit ion feedback (C-plate MCRs) have demonstrated excellent performance characteristics. However, C-plate MCPs are at present costly to fabricate, and the shearing process used to curve the channels produces a low device yield. Described here is a totally new type of high-gain MCP structure in which each channel has an axially symmetric curvature. Initial tests of proof-of-concept units of these MCPs with 75-micron-diameter channels (macroplates) suggest that their performance characteristics have the potential to be equal to those of a C-plate MCP while the fabrication process is no more complex than that of a conventional straight-channel MCP.

Timothy, J. Gethyn↗

NASA NTRS1990

Managing Information On Costs

Cost Management Model, CMM, software tool for planning, tracking, and reporting costs and information related to costs. Capable of estimating costs, comparing estimated to actual costs, performing "what-if" analyses on estimates of costs, and providing mechanism to maintain data on costs in format oriented to management. Number of supportive cost methods built in: escalation rates, production-learning curves, activity/event schedules, unit production schedules, set of spread distributions, tables of rates and factors defined by user, and full arithmetic capability. Import/export capability possible with 20/20 Spreadsheet available on Data General equipment. Program requires AOS/VS operating system available on Data General MV series computers. Written mainly in FORTRAN 77 but uses SGU (Screen Generation Utility).

Taulbee, Zoe A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Learning/cost-improvement curves

Review guide is an aid to manager or engineer who must determine production costs for components, systems, or services. Methods are described by which manufacturers may use historical data, task characteristics, and current cost data to estimate unit prices as function of number of units to be produced.

Delionback, L. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Scanning properties of large dual-shaped offset and symmetric reflector antennas

Several characteristics of dual offset (DOSR) and symmetric shaped reflectors are examined. Among these is the amelioration of the added cost of manufacturing a shaped reflector antenna, particularly a doubly curved surface for the DOSR, if adjustable panels, which may be necessary for correction of gravity and wind distortions, are also used for improving gain by shaping. The scanning properties of shaped reflectors, both offset and circularly symmetric, are examined and compared to conic section scanning characteristics. Scanning of the pencil beam is obtained by lateral and axial translation of a single point-source feed. The feed is kept pointed toward the center of the subreflector. The effects of power spillover and aperture phase error as a function of beam scanning is examined for several different types of large reflector designs including DOSR, circularly symmetric large f/D and smaller f/D dual reflector antenna systems. It is graphically illustrated that the Abbe-sine condition for improving scanning of an optical system cannot, inherently, be satisfied in a dual-shaped reflector system shaped for high gain and low feed spillover.

Galindo-Israel, Victor↗

NASA NTRS2002

Prediction of Aerodynamic Coefficient using Genetic Algorithm Optimized Neural Network for Sparse Data

Wind tunnels use scale models to characterize aerodynamic coefficients, Wind tunnel testing can be slow and costly due to high personnel overhead and intensive power utilization. Although manual curve fitting can be done, it is highly efficient to use a neural network to define the complex relationship between variables. Numerical simulation of complex vehicles on the wide range of conditions required for flight simulation requires static and dynamic data. Static data at low Mach numbers and angles of attack may be obtained with simpler Euler codes. Static data of stalled vehicles where zones of flow separation are usually present at higher angles of attack require Navier-Stokes simulations which are costly due to the large processing time required to attain convergence. Preliminary dynamic data may be obtained with simpler methods based on correlations and vortex methods; however, accurate prediction of the dynamic coefficients requires complex and costly numerical simulations. A reliable and fast method of predicting complex aerodynamic coefficients for flight simulation I'S presented using a neural network. The training data for the neural network are derived from numerical simulations and wind-tunnel experiments. The aerodynamic coefficients are modeled as functions of the flow characteristics and the control surfaces of the vehicle. The basic coefficients of lift, drag and pitching moment are expressed as functions of angles of attack and Mach number. The modeled and training aerodynamic coefficients show good agreement. This method shows excellent potential for rapid development of aerodynamic models for flight simulation. Genetic Algorithms (GA) are used to optimize a previously built Artificial Neural Network (ANN) that reliably predicts aerodynamic coefficients. Results indicate that the GA provided an efficient method of optimizing the ANN model to predict aerodynamic coefficients. The reliability of the ANN using the GA includes prediction of aerodynamic coefficients to an accuracy of 110% . In our problem, we would like to get an optimized neural network architecture and minimum data set. This has been accomplished within 500 training cycles of a neural network. After removing training pairs (outliers), the GA has produced much better results. The neural network constructed is a feed forward neural network with a back propagation learning mechanism. The main goal has been to free the network design process from constraints of human biases, and to discover better forms of neural network architectures. The automation of the network architecture search by genetic algorithms seems to have been the best way to achieve this goal.

Rajkumar, T.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM) is a computer program that simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket engines for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

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NASA NTRS2003

Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM), a discrete event simulation developed in Extend , simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket propulsion test articles for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

Smith, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1975

An economic comparison of three heavy lift airborne systems

Current state of art trends indicate that a 50-ton payload helicopter could be built by the end of the decade. However, alternative aircraft that employ LTA principles are shown to be more economically attractive, both in terms of investment and operating costs for the ultra-heavy lift role. Costing methodology follows rationale developed by airframe manufacturers, and includes learning curve factors.

Carson, B. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Space nuclear power systems 1989; Proceedings of the 6th Symposium, Albuquerque, NM, Jan. 8-12, 1989. Vols. 1 & 2

The present conference discusses such space nuclear power (SNP) issues as current design trends for SDI applications, ultrahigh heat-flux systems with curved surface subcooled nucleate boiling, design and manufacturing alternatives for low cost production of SNPs, a lightweight radioisotope heater for the Galileo mission, compatible materials for uranium fluoride-based gas core SNPs, Johnson noise thermometry for SNPs, and uranium nitride/rhenium compatibility studies for the SP-100 SNP. Also discussed are system issues in antimatter energy conversion, the thermal design of a heat source for a Brayton cycle radioisotope power system, structural and thermal analyses of an isotope heat source, a novel plant protection strategy for transient reactors, and beryllium toxicity.

El-Genk, Mohamed S.↗

NASA NTRS1980

An all-plated, low cost contact system for silicon solar cells

The plating sequences Pd-Cr-Cu and Pd-Ni-Cu are demonstrated. The surface was sensitized with a 50 A-thick Pd layer obtained from an immersion bath. After 15 min heating at 400 C in N2, a thin barrier layer of either Cr or Ni was deposited from electroless baths operated at temperatures around 90 C. The sintering process was repeated, and a thin copper layer of 500 A was deposited by electroless means. An electrolytic copper bath was used to build the copper layer to 3-4 micron thicknesses. Cells with good I-V curves were obtained, and the all-plated contacts had good adhesion. Preliminary cost estimates show that the process costs approximately 12 cents per watt excluding the cost of the masking procedure.

Tanner, D. P.↗