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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code

The MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) code is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) tool used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. This report describes the modeling framework, implementation, verification, and benchmarking of a GDP-based model for economic losses that has recently been developed as an alternative to the original cost-based economic loss model in MACCS. The GDP-based model has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS and is now called the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM). It is based on input-output theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is designed to be used to estimate impacts for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct. Both the original and the RDEIM economic loss models account for costs from evacuation and relocation, decontamination, depreciation, and condemnation. Where the original model accounts for an expected rate of return, based on the value of property, that is lost during interdiction, the RDEIM model instead accounts for losses of GDP based on the industrial sectors located within a county. The original model includes costs for disposal of crops and milk that the RDEIM model currently does not, but these costs tend to contribute insignificantly to the overall losses. This document discusses three verification exercises to demonstrate that the RDEIM model is implemented correctly in MACCS. It also describes a benchmark study at five nuclear power plants chosen to represent the spectrum of U.S. commercial sites. The benchmarks provide perspective on the expected differences between the RDEIM and the original cost-based economic loss models. The RDEIM model is shown to consistently predict larger losses than the original model, probably in part because it accounts for national losses by including indirect and induced losses; whereas, the original model only accounts for regional losses. Nonetheless, the RDEIM model predicts losses that are remarkably consistent with the original cost-based model, differing by 16% at most for the five sites combined with three source terms considered in this benchmark.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRINIDI: Time-of-Flight Resonance Imaging With Neutrons for Isotopic Density Inference

Accurate reconstruction of 2D and 3D isotope densities is a desired capability with great potential impact in applications such as evaluation and development of next-generation nuclear fuels. Neutron time-of-flight (TOF) resonance imaging offers a potential approach by exploiting the characteristic neutron absorption spectra of each isotope. However, it is a major challenge to compute quantitatively accurate images due to a variety of confounding effects such as severe Poisson noise, background scatter, beam non-uniformity, absorption non-linearity, and extended source pulse duration. We present the TRINIDI algorithm which is based on a two-step process in which we first estimate the neutron flux and background counts, and then reconstruct the areal densities of each isotope and pixel. Both components are based on the inversion of a forward model that accounts for the highly non-linear absorption, energy-dependent emission profile, and Poisson noise, while also modeling the substantial spatio-temporal variation of the background and flux. Further, to do this, we formulate the non-linear inverse problem as two optimization problems that are solved in sequence. We demonstrate on both synthetic and measured data that TRINIDI can reconstruct quantitatively accurate 2D views of isotopic areal density that can then be reconstructed into quantitatively accurate 3D volumes of isotopic volumetric density.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid interferometric diagnostic for the refractive index measurement across nearly discrete shock waves

The measurement of high temperature gas properties is key for characterizing high speed flows. Nearly discrete changes in density across shock waves, in particular, are difficult to resolve through traditional fringe-counting interferometric methods. Existing techniques for estimating large fringe jumps are either resolution limited or require specialized window configurations. In this Letter, we describe a unique hybrid interferometric technique that combines narrowband fringes for high resolution and broadband fringes as an absolute reference to measure changes in refractive index with a resolution of up to 7 × 10 −8 across nearly discrete index changes of up to 1.5 × 10 −4 . By capturing fringes with an ultrahigh-speed camera, the refractive index changes across discrete shock fronts can be estimated inside a shock tube with high accuracy and time resolution. First, a novel hybrid calibration method for tracking finite fringes is discussed. Next, this technique is used to measure the post-initial-shock refractive indices for Mach 2.7 to 4.2 flows (pressures from 90.4 to 228.4 kPa). Results are then compared with theoretical values showing agreement within 2%.

Wang, Gwendolyn T. (ORCID:000000016271893X)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fusion-based occupancy sensing for building systems

Sensing and control apparatus for a building HVAC system includes interior and boundary sensors, such as cameras and thermal sensors, generating sensor signals conveying occupancy-related features for an area. A controller uses the sensor signals to produce an occupancy estimate and to generate equipment-control signals to cause the HVAC system to supply conditioned air to the area based on the occupancy estimate. The controller includes fusion systems collectively generating the occupancy estimate by corresponding fusion calculations, the fusion systems producing a boundary occupancy-count change based on sensor signals from the boundary sensors, an interior occupancy count based on sensor signals from the interior sensors, and the overall occupancy estimate. Fusion may be of one or multiple types including cross-modality fusion across different sensor types, within-modality fusion across different instances of same-type sensors, and cross-algorithm fusion using different algorithms for the same sensor(s).

Konrad, Janusz L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Two trillion gallons: Fuel savings from fuel economy improvements to US light-duty vehicles, 1975–2018

Since 1975, the fuel economy of new light-duty vehicles sold in the U.S. has almost doubled. Fuel economy improvements on laboratory tests gradually became real improvements on the road as newer, more efficient vehicles replaced older less efficient ones. Fleet-wide fuel economy gains produced large fuel savings. In this paper, we show that fuel economy gains measured on laboratory test cycles, adjusted for on-road conditions and weighted by the distribution of vehicles by age and their relative use, closely match estimates by the Federal Highway Administration based primarily on traffic counts and motor fuel tax records. Furthermore, adjusting for the rebound effect of fuel economy on vehicle miles traveled, we estimate the fuel savings, CO 2 emissions reductions and dollars saved on fuel due to fuel economy improvements over the past 43 years. Through the end of 2018, estimated cumulative fuel savings amount to approximately 2 trillion gallons of gasoline. We estimate that roughly one-fifth of the savings can be attributed to gasoline price increases over the period and four-fifths to fuel economy and greenhouse gas (ghg) standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Biological Cleanliness: An Empirical Bayes Approach for Spacecraft Bioburden Accounting

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Cumulative Fission Yield Measurements with Fission Spectrum Neutrons on 238U

Two isotopically-characterized targets of high-purity (99.961±0.002%) 238U metal and a neutron dosimetry package were exposed to a pulsed neutron irradiation using the Godiva IV critical assembly at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center to measure the integral fission product yields produced in a Watt fission neutron-energy spectrum. Following irradiation, the fissioned targets were counted with two broad energy germanium detectors. Estimates of the total fissions for each target were made using measurements of well-known fission products. The total number of fissions in each target were then used to measure the fission yields of 33 fission products, 18 of which are published as new measurements. Twelve of the 18 isotopes were in agreement with ENDF/B- VIII.0 using the zeta test and treating ENDF/B-VIII.0 as the true mean: 84mBr, 93Y, 94Y, 104Tc, 134I, 135I, 138Xe, 141Ba, 142Ba, 142La, 146Ce, and 149Nd. The ENDF/B-VIII.0 fission yield for 139Ba was only slightly outside of 1-s relative to the uncertainty measured in this work. Uncertainties for 5 fission product yields were markedly improved over those reported in ENDF/B-VIII.0: 128Sn, 129Sb, 130gSb, 131mTe, and 133I. The fission yields measured for 128Sn, 131mTe, and 133I were in good agreement with the ENDF/B-VIII.0 predicted fission yields. However, fission yields measurements of the isotopes 129Sb, and 130gSb deviated from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 value. Both of these isotopes reside near the doubly magic nuclear shell closures of 50 protons and 82 neutrons. These fission yields may be suppressed because of the odd-odd nuclear structure of 130gSb and the odd-even structure of 129Sb and isomer splitting. Comparisons to other recent work and a brief review with citations are included to support this conclusion.

Fission Yields↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Counting Calories: Light Yield Studies for ADRIANO Calorimeter Prototype

To estimate the light yield for ADRIANO prototype, we must calibrate the light sensors as well as collect data from beams of known properties. Future experiments searching for new physics require special calorimetric techniques to detect new particles. ADRIANO2(A Dual Readout Integrally Active Non-segmented Option) is one such technique. Several prototypes have been tested at Mtest Facility at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory in the last few years. This work consisting of new and more refined analysis of the data taken with the intent of improving the understanding of this calorimeter.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regularized Differentiation for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

In this paper, we propose and investigate the performance of two novel shrinkage estimators for bioburden density estimation in planetary protection. The estimators are based on the regularized differentiation of a cumulative count of colony forming units collected throughout the data collecting session or the life cycle of the entire mission. The regularized differentiation recasts the problem of bioburden density estimation as a linear least squares problem. The least squares problem is then solved through regularization techniques, such as truncated singular value decomposition and penalized least squares. The regularization is necessary to avoid noise amplification during the differentiation of noisy data. The two regularization estimators are compared with four other commonly used estimators to simultaneously evaluate the means of multivariable independent Poisson distributions: the maximum likelihood, noninformative Bayes estimator with Jeffreys prior, Empirical Bayes using conjugate gamma-Poisson model with gamma parameters selected by method of moments, and the Clevenson-Zidek estimator. It is shown through computer-simulated data that the regularized differentiation based on ridge regression has the smallest mean-squared error among all estimators. The analysis of shrinkage mechanism implemented by regularized differentiation is performed, and it is shown that the regularized differentiation amounts to performing a weighted averaging of all the samples. The weights are determined by the regularization parameter automatically selected by the L-curve technique. Since the method of least squares makes no distributional assumptions about the data, it presents an attractive technique for bioburden density estimation when there are concerns about the misspecification of the distributional model. The paper concludes with the analysis of the bioburden data collected during InSight mission and directions for future work.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A framework for measuring weak-lensing magnification using the Fundamental Plane

ABSTRACT Galaxy–galaxy lensing is an essential tool for probing dark matter haloes and constraining cosmological parameters. While galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements usually rely on shear, weak-lensing magnification contains additional constraining information. Using the Fundamental Plane (FP) of elliptical galaxies to anchor the size distribution of a background population is one method that has been proposed for performing a magnification measurement. We present a formalism for using the FP residuals of elliptical galaxies to jointly estimate the foreground mass and background redshift errors for a stacked lens scenario. The FP residuals include information about weak-lensing magnification κ, and therefore foreground mass, since to first order, non-zero κ affects galaxy size but not other FP properties. We also present a modular, extensible code that implements the formalism using emulated galaxy catalogues of a photometric galaxy survey. We find that combining FP information with observed number counts of the source galaxies constrains mass and photo-z error parameters significantly better than an estimator that includes number counts only. In particular, the constraint on the mass is 17.0 per cent if FP residuals are included, as opposed to 27.7 per cent when only number counts are included. The effective size noise for a foreground lens of mass $M_\mathrm{ H}=10^{14}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$, with a conservative selection function in size and surface brightness applied to the source population, is σκ, eff = 0.250. We discuss the improvements to our FP model necessary to make this formalism a practical companion to shear analyses in weak-lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effect of selection – a tale of cluster mass measurement bias induced by correlation and projection

ABSTRACT Cosmology analyses using galaxy clusters by the Dark Energy Survey have recently uncovered an issue of a previously unknown selection effect affecting weak-lensing mass estimates. In this letter, we use the Illustris-TNG simulation to demonstrate that selecting on galaxy counts induces a selection effect because of projection and correlation between different observables. We compute the weak-lensing-like projected mass estimations of dark matter haloes and examine their projected subhalo counts. In the two-dimensional (2D) projected space, haloes that are measured as more massive than truth have higher subhalo counts. Thus, projection along the line of sight creates cluster observables that are correlated with cluster mass measurement deviations, which in turn creates a mass measurement bias when the clusters are selected by this correlated observable. We demonstrate that the bias is predicted in a forward model using the observable-mass measurement correlation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stability of Cool Cores during Galaxy Cluster Growth: A Joint Chandra/SPT Analysis of 67 Galaxy Clusters along a Common Evolutionary Track Spanning 9 Gyr

We present the results of a joint analysis of Chandra X-ray and South Pole Telescope (SPT) Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) observations targeting the first sample of galaxy clusters at 0.3 < z < 1.3, selected to be the progenitors of well-studied nearby clusters based on their expected accretion rate. We develop a new procedure in order to tackle the analysis challenge that is estimating the intracluster medium (ICM) properties of low-mass and high-redshift clusters with ~150 X-ray counts. One of the dominant sources of uncertainty on the ICM density profile estimated with a standard X-ray analysis with such shallow X-ray data is due to the systematic uncertainty associated with the ICM temperature obtained through the analysis of the background-dominated X-ray spectrum. We show that we can decrease the uncertainty on the density profile by a factor varying between 2 and 8 with a joint deprojection of the X-ray surface brightness profile measured by Chandra and the SZ-integrated Compton parameter available in the SPT cluster catalog. We apply this technique to the whole sample of 67 clusters in order to track the evolution of the ICM core density during cluster growth. We confirm that the evolution of the gas density profile is well modeled by the combination of a fixed core and a self-similarly evolving non-cool-core profile. We show that the fraction of cool cores in this sample is remarkably stable with redshift although clusters have gained a factor of ~4 in total mass over the past ~9 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coexistent Quantum Channel Characterization Using Spectrally Resolved Bayesian Quantum Process Tomography

The coexistence of quantum and classical signals over the same optical fiber with minimal degradation of the transmitted quantum information is critical for operating large-scale quantum networks over the existing communications infrastructure. In this work, we systematically characterize the quantum channel that results from simultaneously distributing approximate single-photon polarization-encoded qubits and classical light of varying intensities through fiber-optic channels of up to 15 km. Using spectrally resolved quantum process tomography with a Bayesian reconstruction method that we develop, we estimate the full quantum channel from experimental photon counting data, both with and without classical background. Furthermore, although we find the exact channel description to be a weak function of the pump polarization, we nevertheless show that the coexistent fiber-based quantum channel has high process fidelity with an ideal depolarizing channel when the noise is dominated by Raman scattering. These results provide a basis for the future development of quantum repeater designs and quantum error-correcting codes for real-world channels and inform models used in the analysis and simulation of quantum networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Evaluation of Spectral Methods for Robust Reactor Noise Estimation

Reactor noise analysis provides a noninvasive means to determine neutron kinetic parameters from stochastic fluctuations in detector signals. However, standard cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analyses can be sensitive to numerical processing choices, which may introduce processing-dependent systematic shifts in estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and limit reproducibility. This study uses a hybrid multitaper–Welch spectral estimator to analyze subcritical noise measurements from a fast-spectrum critical assembly. The decay constant α was extracted using three frequency-domain methods: the CPSD, the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), and the generalized magnitude-squared coherence (GMSC). These coherence-based estimators normalize detector auto-spectral structure and are expected to reduce the sensitivity of fitted α values to processing parameters. A Sobol global sensitivity analysis identified which numerical inputs most strongly influence the fitted values of α. All estimators produced a linear dependence of α on inverse count rate, with delayed-critical extrapolations near 1.7 × 10 4 s −1 , in agreement within 8% of MCNP6.3 KOPTS benchmark calculations. Sensitivity results show that while the CPSD depends on both time-bin width and taper selection, the MSC and GMSC are dominated by time-bin width alone, indicating reduced parameter coupling and greater robustness to processing variability. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and practical value of coherence-based spectral estimators for extracting α from reactor noise and support their broader application to multi-detector and irregular datasets in subcritical system characterization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗