Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “coverage probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Global Soil Water Estimates as Landslide Predictor: The Effectiveness of SMOS, SMAP, and GRACE Observations, Land Surface Simulations, and Data Assimilation

This global feasibility study assesses the potential of coarse-scale, gridded soil water estimates for the probabilistic modeling of hydrologically-triggered landslides, using Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing data, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations and six data products based on the assimilation of SMOS, SMAP, and/or GRACE observations into CLSM. SMOS or SMAP observations (~40-km resolution) are only available for less than 20% of the globally reported landslide events, because they are intermittent and uncertain in regions with complex terrain. GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates include 75% of the reported landslides but have coarse spatial and temporal resolutions (monthly, ~300-km). CLSM soil water simulations have the added advantage of complete spatial and temporal coverage, and are found to be able to distinguish between “stable slope” (no landslide) conditions and landslide-inducing conditions in a probabilistic way. Assimilating SMOS and/or GRACE data increases the landslide probability estimates based on soil water percentiles for the reported landslides, relative to model-only estimates at 36-km resolution for the period 2011-2016, unless the CLSM model-only soil water content is already high (≥ 50th percentile). The SMAP Level 4 data assimilation product (at 9-km resolution, period 2015-2019) more generally updates the soil water conditions towards higher landslide probabilities for the reported landslides, but is similar to model-only estimates for the majority of landslides where SMAP data cannot easily be converted to soil moisture owing to complex terrain.

Anne Felsberg↗

Rate equation for desorbing particles

A rate equation describing the desorption of particles from substrates has been formulated using a simple classical model in terms of the particulate escape probabilities and escape velocities. Numerical results for desorption rates as a function of temperature using simple two-body potentials are calculated for various metallic systems. These results were obtained for the low coverage limits and are found to be in good agreement with experimental findings. The present formulation also provides an improved picture of the physical nature of the commonly discussed parameters, such as the frequency factor, desorption energy, and desorption temperature in relation to observed desorption phenomena.

Halicioglu, T.↗

Digital, Satellite-Based Aeronautical Communication

Satellite system relays communication between aircraft and stations on ground. System offers better coverage with direct communication between air and ground, costs less and makes possible new communication services. Carries both voice and data. Because many data exchanged between aircraft and ground contain safety-related information, probability of bit errors essential.

Davarian, F.↗

Tracker implementation for the orbiter Ku-band communications antenna

Possible implementations and recommendations for the Space Shuttle Ku-Band integrated communications/radar antenna tracking system were evaluated. Communication aspects involving the Tracking Data Relay Satellite (TDRS)/Orbiter Ku-Band link are emphasized. Detailed analysis of antenna sizes, gains and signal-to-noise ratios shows the desirability of using maximum size 36-inch diameter dish and a triple channel monopulse. The use of the original baselined 20 inch dish is found to result in excessive acquisition time since the despread signal would be used in the tracking loop. An evaluation of scan procedures which includes vehicle dynamics, designation error, time for acquisition and probability of acquisition shows that the conical scan is preferred since the time for lock-on for relatively slow look angle rates will be significantly shorter than the raster scan. Significant improvement in spherical coverage may be obtained by reorienting the antenna gimbal to obtain maximum blockage overlap.

Rudnicki, J. F.↗

Integrated Application of Active Controls (IAAC) technology to an advanced subsonic transport project: Current and advanced act control system definition study, volume 1

An active controls technology (ACT) system architecture was selected based on current technology system elements and optimal control theory was evaluated for use in analyzing and synthesizing ACT multiple control laws. The system selected employs three redundant computers to implement all of the ACT functions, four redundant smaller computers to implement the crucial pitch-augmented stability function, and a separate maintenance and display computer. The reliability objective of probability of crucial function failure of less than 1 x 10 to the -9th power per flight of 1 hr can be met with current technology system components, if the software is assumed fault free and coverage approaching 1.0 can be provided. The optimal control theory approach to ACT control law synthesis yielded comparable control law performance much more systematically and directly than the classical s-domain approach. The ACT control law performance, although somewhat degraded by the inclusion of representative nonlinearities, remained quite effective. Certain high-frequency gust-load alleviation functions may require increased surface rate capability.

Hanks, G. W.↗

Sudden ionospheric delay decorrelation and its impact on WAAS

We report a methodology for assessing the impact on WAAS posed by a sudden increase in the level of ionospheric disturbance. The methodology is based upon the forming an estimate of the probability P(D) that a WAAS user will confront a sudden increase in the level of ionospheric disturbance following a period of relative calm. By restricting the tabulation of fit residuals to only those fits where the spatial coverage of the fit points is sufficiently good, we have determined a limiting upper bound of P(D) to be 2x10(sup -6).

ionosphere WAAS GPS↗

Land Use and Mapping

From the standpoint of technology, the most encouraging thing about ERTS has been the level of land-use identification. Land-use detail has exceeded the expectations of the Interagency Steering Committee and the requirements of land-use classification proposed by the Department of Interior. Whereas in the latter instance it was anticipated that only nine classes of land use would probably be identifiable, in fact some 14 to 18 classes have been identified. The success in the level of land-use identification results primarily from the various attributes of the ERTS system. These include the ability to provide repetitive coverage, and in particular seasonal coverage; the ability to image in four bands of the electromagnetic spectrum (green, red, and two near-infrared), which allows for manipulation of various combinations of bands; and the provision by the ERTS system of computer-compatible tapes for machine processing of data. Furthermore, the resolution of ERTS imagery has been better than expected. Although there is some question as to its exact resolving power, it is safe to say objects as small as 100 meters (300 feet) in diameter have been identified. Linear features as narrow as 16 meters (50 feet) can be detected (Figure 1).

Lindgren, D. T.↗

Uniting Space, Ground and Underwater Measurements for Improved Estimates of Rain Rate

Global precipitation is monitored from a variety of platforms including space-borne, ground- and ocean-based platforms. Intercomparisons of these observations are crucial to validating the measurements and providing confidence for each measurement technique. Probability distribution functions of rain rates are used to compare satellite and ground-based radar observations. A preferred adjustment technique for improving rain rate distribution estimates is identified using measurements from ground-based radar and radar and rain gauges within the coverage area of the radar. The underwater measurement of rainfall shows similarities to radar measurements, but with intermediate spatial resolution and high temporal resolution. Reconciling these different measurement techniques provides understanding and confidence for all of the methods.

Amitai, E.↗

Coronal Temperatures

The solid state spectrometer (SSS) on the Einstein Observatory (HEAO 2) was sensitive in the energy range 0.5 to 4.5 keV to fluxes as low as 4x10 to the 12th power ergs/cu cm/s. Good spectra were obtained for 19 stars, including Algol, 7 RS CVn systems, 2 dMe stars, 2 W UMa binaries, 1 GV single star, and 3 0B supergiants, 2 BV stars and 1 07 binary. This is a very incomplete survey of stellar coronae, but it does include coverage of several late and early types and usually more than 1 sample of the class. The results for these stars suggest two generalizations despite the small numbers: (1) there is a broad variety of X-ray spectra of stellar coronae; and (2) there probably are X-ray spectral types (X-ray coronae of stars of similar other properties have similar temperatures). Evidence indicating that some emission distributions are bimodal is discussed. Finally, some remarks are made concerning the spectra of the early type stars and constraints on the presence of very high temperatures.

Swank, J. H.↗

The scientific case for magnetic field satellites

To make full use of modern magnetic data and the paleomagnetic record, we must greatly improve our understanding of how the geodynamo system works. It is clearly nonlinear, probably chaotic, and its dimensionless parameters cannot yet be reproduced on a laboratory scale. It is accessible only to theory and to measurements made at and above the earth's surface. These measurements include essentially all geophysical types. Gravity and seismology give evidence for undulations in the core-mantle boundary (CMB) and for temperature variations in the lower mantle which can affect core convection and hence the dynamo. VLBI measurements of the variations in the Chandler wobble and length of day are affected by, among other things, the electromagnetic and mechanical transfer of angular momentum across the CMB. Finally, measurements of the vector magnetic field, its intensity, or its direction, give the most direct access to the core dynamo and the electrical conductivity of the lower mantle. The 120 gauss coefficients of degrees up to 10 probably come from the core, with only modest interference by mantle conductivity and crustal magnetization. By contrast, only three angular accelerations enter the problem of angular momentum transfer across the CMB. Satellite measurements of the vector magnetic field are uniquely able to provide the spatial coverage required for extrapolation to the CMB, and to isolate and measure certain magnetic signals which to the student of the geodynamo represent noise, but which are of great interest elsewhere in geophysics. Here, these claims are justified and the mission parameters likely to be scientifically most useful for observing the geodynamo system are described.

Backus, George E.↗

Kinematic misalignments in remnants of multiple mergers

Observations indicate that the rotation and minor axes in elliptical galaxies are usually well aligned. However, computer models of dissipationless mergers of pairs of disk galaxies have failed to establish such a correlation, implying that most ellipticals probably did not originate in this manner. Here we consider remnants produced from repeated merging in small groups of a half-dozen or so disk galaxies and find that the internal kinematics of such objects are more representative of actual elliptical galaxies. Although our coverage of parameter space is not complete, the remnants produced in our simulations invariably possess small kinematic misalignments. These results suggest that the majority of elliptical galaxies have had evolutionary histories more complex than those envisaged by simple merger hypotheses.

Weil, Melinda L.↗

The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 20011. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. ln this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection.

Tao, W.-K.↗

The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions with the low-level wind shear. Consequently, precipitation processes can be more vigorous. For example,, the evaporative cooling is more than two times stronger in the lower troposphere with high CCN for the Pacific case. Sensitivity tests also suggest that ice processes are crucial for suppressing precipitation in the Oklahoma case with high CCN.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Incremental Learning for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrievals using Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder

Spaceborne passive microwave (PMW) radiometry is central to global precipitation monitoring, yet retrieval uncertainties remain substantial, particularly for cross-track sounders whose variable footprints and channel configurations are optimized for atmospheric temperature and moisture profiling rather than precipitation. Consequently, existing operational products often exhibit angular-dependent biases, limited effective swath utilization, unrealistic rainfall probability distributions, and systematic misclassification of precipitation phase. These limitations are further compounded by the scarcity of globally accurate and representative precipitation observations, as training data from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) are spatially sparse, lack uniform global coverage, and exhibit heterogeneous error characteristics across precipitation regimes. To address these challenges, this study presents a supervised retrieval algorithm that incrementally trains an ensemble of extreme gradient-boosted decision trees by augmenting base learners with pre-training on reanalysis data and post-training on coincident DPR and CPR observations matched with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). By transferring prior information from reanalysis to posterior constraints from radar observations and adopting a sequential detection–estimation strategy for precipitation phase and rate retrieval, the proposed approach yields retrievals across the full ATMS swath that are largely free from persistent deficiencies in current Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave operational products. In particular, the method resolves bimodal artifacts in rainfall retrievals and mitigates systematic high-latitude snowfall biases, including overestimation across the Arctic and underestimation across the Antarctic. Validation against independent Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) further demonstrates improved performance in precipitation phase detection and rate estimation relative to both reanalysis and current GPM PMW products.

Mahyar Garshasbi↗

Communications and tracking - Light and IR will help carry high traffic

The space station currently under consideration by NASA must simultaneously track and communicate with the many vehicles and objects surrounding it in orbit. While the Space Shuttle has 23 antennas, more than 50 will be required by the space station. In addition to Shuttle-compatible equipment at P, L, C, S, and Ku bands, the station system will probably incorporate Ka, W, IR and optical frequency equipment for tracking and communications. A major design challenge is foreseen in the placement of separate antennas, lenses and reflectors over the station's external geometry in order to give both the overlapping fields of view required for spherical coverage and the radiation of unambiguous navigation guide beams and markers. Adaptive distributed element arrays are under consideration. Another approach to spherical coverage involves the use of omnidirectional antennas which both transmit and receive RF energy over a wide range of angles.

Dickinson, R. M.↗

Rotational modulation and flares on RS Canum Venaticorum and BY Draconis stars. 18: Coordinated VLA, ROSAT, and IUE observations of RS CVn binaries

As part of a coordinated program of multi-wavelength observations of RS CVn close binary systems, we observed 15 systems with the Very Large Array (VLA) and 10 systems with IUE, simultaneously or nearly simultaneously with the ROSAT All Sky Survey observations of these stars. Of the 22 systems observed with ROSAT, three were observed both by IUE and the VLA. Radio observations were made at 3.6, 6 and 20 cm. Of the 15 observed RS CVn systems, we detected 11 with greater than 4 sigma confidence at one or more wavelengths. The IUE observations were made within the RIASS (ROSAT-IUE All Sky Survey) program. We present the results of the VLA observations, along with the corresponding subsets of the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) X-ray and Wide Field Camera (WFC) XUV survey, and RIASS IUE observations. We obtained an extended VLA/IUE/ROSAT simultaneous coverage of one system, TY Pyx, covering more than one orbital period. These observations reveal that the quiescent radio flux of TY Pyx is relatively constant over time scales of up to 7 hours, but that it did change by a factor of 3 over 24 hours, probably due to a flare on 1990 Nov. 12. The UV, XUV and X-ray fluxes do not show large day-to-day or phase-related variability. The observation of the decay phase of a radio flare on EI Eri, with no accompanying X-ray or XUV flare, suggests that the lack of a strong correlation between X-ray and radio flares previously noted for dMe flare stars holds for RS CVn systems as well. We suggest that the radio flare may have been due to a coherent emission process such as electron cyclotron emission. The simultaneous measurements presented here provide a unique test of the general correlation between radio and soft X-ray luminosities, L(sub radio) approximately L(sub x exp m) (Drake et al. 1989) with a power-law slope close to unity, which was previously derived using data obtained years apart. Our derived slopes are consistent with and thus support the general correlations between coronal and chromospheric/transition region emissions previously derived from nonsimultaneous measurements of a much larger sample of these variable sources. However, the importance of simultaneous measurements for accurate energy balance calculations is stressed.

Fox, David C.↗

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al ., 2001]." Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 19991. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and Shepherd, 2005]. Please see Tao et al. (2007) for more detailed description on aerosol impact on precipitation. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

PRIME: A bottom-up approach to probabilistic rule development

PRIME is a system to be used by an intelligent machine to allow it to operate in an abstract but uncertain (or stochastic) environment. It maintains a model of the effects of the machine's actions in the form of a rule base, which is induced from experience. This bottom-up approach to rule development allows the model to adapt to changes in the environment. Each rule consists of a condition under which the rule is active, an action, the effect of the action on the environment, and an estimate of the probability of this effect occurring. The effect probabilities are used to model the uncertainty in the environment, permitting multiple possible effects for a single action under a particular set of conditions. The objective of the intelligent machine is to satisfy user-specified goals with maximum probability of success. PRIME fulfills this requirement in two ways: it continuously updates the rule base with the most recent information, to ensure the validity of the model; and it generates plans which have the maximum probability of achieving the goals, based on the probability estimates in the rule base. PRIME is composed of three main processes: exploration, generalization, and planning. In exploration, the machine executes various randomly chosen actions, observes the effects on the environment, and updates the rule base accordingly. This process is used to develop the rule base in simulation, as well as to supplement the current knowledge during normal operation. Generalization is the procedure used to induce general rules from experience, which is encoded in the form of specific rules. These general rules extend the machine's knowledge to situations which have not been encountered yet, thereby increasing the capability of the machine to plan effectively. Planning is the process of constructing an optimal sequence of actions to satisfy a goal, using the rule base to predict the effects of these actions and to determine the probability of success of the plan. The rule representation and many other data structures were specifically chosen to maximize the efficiency of these processes. A simulated environment was designed to test the performance of PRIME. The results of experimentation were largely negative. The main problem was that the domain coverage of the rules was inadequate for the number of rules stored in the rule base, due to redundancies in general rules and numerous rules covering ineffective actions. It was determined that a more efficient generalization, and some form of goal-directed exploration, are necessary in order to solve most of the current deficiencies in PRIME.

Miller, Scott A.↗