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At least 73 records · Page 4

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A Transdisciplinary Approach to Characterize Hydrological Controls on Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystem Health

Sustainable groundwater management provides an opportunity for environmental water needs to be considered and secured by establishing appropriate groundwater thresholds. Ecosystems that require access to groundwater for some or all their water requirements are referred to as groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs). However, large data gaps often exist around the cause-and-effect relationships between groundwater conditions and the impacts they have on GDEs. These data gaps are largely attributed to a lack of shallow monitoring wells near GDEs, and a lack of practical biological metrics to characterize ecosystem health. This transdisciplinary study explores the use of geophysics (electrical resistivity tomography) to fill in our understanding of shallow subsurface soil-hydrological conditions within GDEs. In addition, we develop an approach to characterize ecosystem health within GDEs, using groundwater-dependent vegetation (phreatophytes) as indicators. Ten vegetation variables were used to characterize six biological indicators—growth, diversity, recruitment, structure, native plant dominance, and survivorship—which were used to infer ecosystem health conditions. Health indicators for groundwater-dependent vegetation were found to directly correlate with subsurface conditions, where greater groundwater availability (higher soil moisture content and shallower groundwater levels) was associated with “healthier” vegetation. This study provides a new approach to integrate hydrological, geophysical, and biological data to strengthen monitoring programs and inform water resource management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Magellan - Mission summary

The Magellan radar mapping mission is in the process of producing a global, high-resolution image and altimetry data set of Venus. Despite initial communications problems, few data gaps have occurred. Analysis of Magellan data is in the initial stages. The radar system data are of high quality, and the planned performance is being achieved in terms of spatial resolution and geometric and radiometric accuracy. Image performance exceeds expectations, and the image quality and mosaickability are extremely good. Future plans for the mission include obtaining gravity data, filling gaps in the initial map, and conducting special studies with the radar.

Saunders, R. Stephen↗

Application of a global variational analysis to quasi three-dimensional temperature retrievals

The Halen and Kalnay (1983) hypothesis that the application of global variational analysis to clear column radiances will result in a reduction of both observational noise and data gaps is tested, together with the hypothesis of these authors that the estimate of clear column radiances furnished by the variational analysis can yield a useful reduction of the data gaps in the retrieved temperatures. In the first of two experiments conducted, attention is given to whether the nonlinearity of the temperature retrieval method is sufficiently strong to result in more accurate temperature retrievals. In the second experiment, realistic subgrid scale cloud fields and observational and temperature errors are included in the simulation system.

Dalcher, A.↗

Filling the Gaps: A Bayesian Mixture Model for Imputing Missing Soil Water Content Data

ABSTRACT Soil water content (SWC) data are central to evaluating how soil moisture varies over time and space and influences critical plant and ecosystem functions, especially in water‐limited drylands. However, sensors that record SWC at high frequencies often malfunction, leading to incomplete timeseries and limiting our understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics. We developed an analytical approach to impute missing SWC data, which we tested at six eddy flux tower sites along an elevation gradient in the southwestern United States. We impute missing data as a mixture of linearly interpolated SWC between the observed endpoints of a missing data gap and SWC simulated by an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2). Within a Bayesian framework, we allowed the relative utility (mixture weight) of each component (linearly interpolated vs. SOILWAT2) to vary by depth, site and gap characteristics. We explored “fixed” weights versus “dynamic” weights that vary as a function of cumulative precipitation, average temperature, and time since the start of the gap. Both models estimated missing SWC data well ( R 2 = 0.70–0.88 vs. 0.75–0.91 for fixed vs. dynamic weights, respectively), but the utility of linearly interpolated versus SOILWAT2 values depended on site and depth. SOILWAT2 was more useful for more arid sites, shallower depths, longer and warmer gaps and gaps that received greater precipitation. Overall, the mixture model reliably gap‐fills SWC, while lending insight into processes governing SWC dynamics. This approach to impute missing data could be adapted to accommodate more than two mixture components and other types of environmental timeseries.

Ogle, Kiona [School of Informatics, Computing, and↗

Designing a Site Closure Strategy for Uranium in Groundwater and Surface Water - 19534

A site closure strategy was designed and mapped for residual uranium present in groundwater and surface water at the US DOE Office of Legacy Management (LM) Monticello Mill Tailings Site (MMTS) Operable Unit (OU) III, which is regulated under CERCLA. The MMTS is a former mill site that was used to process uranium and vanadium ore in southeastern Utah until 1960. OU III includes surface water in Montezuma Creek and groundwater present in a shallow alluvial aquifer along the creek valley for several kilometers downgradient of the former mill site. The current remedy consists of an operating pump-and-treat system, monitored natural attenuation (MNA), and institutional controls (ICs). Performance evaluations indicate that a prolonged restoration period is likely, as well as an asymptotic trend in uranium concentrations that still exceed the remediation goal. Multiple strategies and scenarios were evaluated before selecting a preferred site closure strategy. Recommendations were developed to support advancing the site towards closure over the next few years and guide the process of regulatory interactions and decision making at the MMTS OU III. Site closure is an important milestone that reflects successful remedial progress at LM sites. Post-closure site management would be maintained to ensure conditions are protective of human health and the environment. The site closure strategy was considered in the context of site remedial progress. The primary sources of groundwater contamination have been removed, including mill tailings and contaminated soils, sediment, and debris. Five-year reviews have regularly concluded that the remedy is protective of human health and environment and that ICs are effective in preventing exposure to contaminated groundwater. The affected aquifer is low-yielding and has no history of domestic use. In 2004, the final remedy selected in the Record of Decision (ROD) was MNA with ICs. However, a pump-and-treat system was installed and continues to operate as a contingency remedy in the area with the highest residual uranium concentrations. The need for a contingency pump-and-treat system was triggered by a departure of the long-term monitoring data from model projections that were used as the basis for remedy performance metrics specified in the ROD. In 2015, the pump-and-treat system was expanded. Average uranium concentrations have declined locally over time. However, monitoring data and column studies indicate that the system effectiveness will eventually become ineffective in reducing uranium concentrations, likely due to the reequilibration of uranium present in the solid matrix in various states (i.e., sorbed, precipitated). Currently, there are no agreed-upon metrics for discontinuing the contingency pump-and-treat system. Three closure strategies effectively applied at other CERCLA sites were considered at MMTS OU III: (1) restoring natural attenuation conditions and conducting MNA; (2) applying alternate concentration limits (ACLs); and (3) waiving a remedial goal based on technical impracticability (TI). Each closure strategy was evaluated in the following manner: (1) identifying the criteria and requirements associated with current regulations, policy, and guidance, (2) assessing the ability to meet those criteria based on the current site knowledge and the conceptual site model, and (3) identifying data gaps that need to be filled to further assess the closure strategy. Following this evaluation, a preferred closure strategy was selected: to transition to a remedy based on MNA and maintenance of ICs, without active remediation. Several scenarios for transitioning to the preferred closure strategy were identified. Each scenario consisted of 'if/then logic' associated with a larger decision diagram. The decision diagram considered the current conceptual site model (CSM) and potential outcomes of studies that will be conducted to fill data gaps, as well as the performance of the existing treatment system and long-term monitoring data. Two scenarios for transitioning to the preferred closure strategy were highlighted for future planning and were described in detail. For both scenarios, the preferred closure strategy includes demonstrating criteria for MNA acceptance, pump-and-treat termination, long-term monitoring, and eventual site delisting. Recommended actions over the next few years were also developed, including updating the CSM, conducting numerical modeling to predict remedial performance and time frames, conducting geochemical analyses to assess uranium fate and transport, and summarizing the lines of evidence and basis for MNA. This detailed example of the development of a site-specific closure strategy provides the thought process and decision logic used to assess uncertainty using an if/then framework; identify common elements and recommended actions to advance the site towards closure; and navigate the inherent uncertainty in the timing of future events, outcome of regulatory discussions, and remedial progress over time that is common to many complex US DOE facilities. In addition, the national regulations, policy, guidance, and state of practice regarding commonly used site closure strategies was summarized for consideration, including MNA, ACLs, and TI. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Identifying Controlling Variables for Mercury Vapors in Alpha-4 at Y-12: Two Year Data Collection Update

Multiple sensor packages were deployed at Alpha-4 by SRNL, in collaboration with United Cleanup Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR), to monitor mercury vapor concentrations and meteorological parameters. These sensors collected data, inside and outside of the legacy-use facility, for approximately two years. Though data gaps still exist, particularly in colder months, several controlling variables were identified that govern mercury vapor concentrations within Alpha-4. Temperature, barometric pressure gradients, humidity, and wind speed have been identified as controlling variables. A strong positive correlation was seen between mercury vapor concentrations and temperature which generally followed diurnal fluctuations. Temperatures below approximately 10 degrees Celsius did not show any spikes above the PEL, indicating more work can be performed at any time during the winter months – more data should be collected to confirm consistency in this finding. Additionally, spikes in mercury vapor concentrations above that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 100 µg/m 3 ) occurred primarily in late afternoon or evening/overnight hours (between 3 PM and 6 AM), which suggests D&D operations might be best scheduled during morning or daytime hours prior to the late afternoon. However, a limited number of spikes did occur outside of the identified window, although this may be attributed to disturbances in air flow and mercury vapor release from work activities performed inside of the Alpha-4 building. The analysis conducted allows for a strong predictive capability for estimating mercury vapor concentrations based upon accurate meteorological parameters. Still, additional data collection, particularly in the winter months, could help to strengthen the predictive power and validate the identified data trends. Further, increased temporal resolution could also help to better characterize the incipient stages of the increases and decreases in the mercury vapor concentration. Continued monitoring support by SRNL at Y-12 is underway at Alpha-4 to further close remaining data gaps and support deactivation and decommissioning work. Within a collaborative effort with UCOR, the SRNL team is collecting mercury vapor data to study the efficacy of a novel mercury suppressant, FerroBlack® which was recently deployed at Alpha-4. In addition, modifications to the current monitoring setup to increase measurement resolution is also being investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Filling data analysis gaps in time-resolved crystallography by machine learning

There is a growing understanding of the structural dynamics of biological molecules fueled by x-ray crystallography experiments. Time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) with x-ray Free Electron Lasers allows the measurement of ultrafast structural changes in proteins. Nevertheless, this technique comes with some limitations. One major challenge is the quality of data from TR-SFX measurements, which often faces issues like data sparsity, partial recording of Bragg reflections, timing errors, and pixel noise. To overcome these difficulties, conventionally, large volumes of data are collected and grouped into a few temporal bins. The data in each bin are then averaged and paired with the mean of their corresponding jittered timestamps. This procedure provides one structure per bin, resulting in a limited number of averaged structures for the entire time interval spanned by the experiment. Therefore, the information on ultrafast structural dynamics at high temporal resolution is lost. This has initiated research for advanced methods of analyzing experimental TR-SFX data beyond the standard binning and averaging method. To address this problem, we use a machine learning algorithm called Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA), which has emerged as a promising technique for studying the dynamics of complex systems. In this work, we demonstrate the power of this algorithm using synthetic x-ray diffraction snapshots from a protein with significant data incompleteness, timing uncertainties, and noise. Our study confirms that NLSA is a suitable approach that effectively mitigates the effects of these artifacts in TR-SFX data and recovers accurate structural dynamics information hidden in such data.

Trujillo, Justin (ORCID:0000000285505360)↗

Flowback verses first-flush: new information on the geochemistry of produced water from mandatory reporting

Unconventional oil and gas development uses the subsurface injection of large amounts of a variety of industrial chemicals, and there are concerns about the return of these chemical to the surface with water produced with oil and gas from stimulated wells. Produced water, including any flowback of injected fluids, must be managed so as to protect human health and the environment, and understanding the chemistry of produced water from stimulated wells is necessary to ensure the safe management of produced water. In 2014, California instituted mandatory reporting for all well stimulations, including sampling produced water two times and comprehensive chemical characterization of fluids injected and fluids recovered from stimulated wells. In this study, we analyzed data from mandatory reporting with the objective of closing previously identified data gaps concerning oil-field chemical practices and the nature of flowback and produced water from stimulated wells. It was found that the plug-flow conceptual model of flowback developed in shale formations, where salinity increases over time as produced water is extracted, was not appropriate for characterizing produced water from unconventional wells in these oil reservoirs, which are predominately diatomite and sandstones. In these formations stimulation caused a "first-flush" phenomena, where salts and metals were initially high and then decreased in concentration over time, as more produced water was extracted. Although widely applied to meet regulatory requirements, total carbohydrate measurement was not found to be a good chemical indicator of hydraulic fracturing flowback. In conclusion, mandatory reporting closed data-gaps concerning chemical use, provided new information on acid treatments, and allowed more detailed analysis of hydraulic fracturing practices, including comparison of water use by geological formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Materials Data on GaP by Materials Project

GaP is Zincblende, Sphalerite structured and crystallizes in the cubic F-43m space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ga3+ is bonded to four equivalent P3- atoms to form corner-sharing GaP4 tetrahedra. All Ga–P bond lengths are 2.38 Å. P3- is bonded to four equivalent Ga3+ atoms to form corner-sharing PGa4 tetrahedra.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on GaP(H2O3)2 by Materials Project

GaP(H2O3)2 crystallizes in the orthorhombic Pbca space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ga3+ is bonded to six O2- atoms to form GaO6 octahedra that share corners with four equivalent PO4 tetrahedra. There are a spread of Ga–O bond distances ranging from 1.96–2.04 Å. P5+ is bonded to four O2- atoms to form PO4 tetrahedra that share corners with four equivalent GaO6 octahedra. The corner-sharing octahedra tilt angles range from 42–47°. There is one shorter (1.54 Å) and three longer (1.56 Å) P–O bond length. There are four inequivalent H1+ sites. In the first H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to two O2- atoms. There is one shorter (1.01 Å) and one longer (1.65 Å) H–O bond length. In the second H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a distorted single-bond geometry to two O2- atoms. There is one shorter (1.01 Å) and one longer (1.64 Å) H–O bond length. In the third H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a distorted linear geometry to two O2- atoms. There is one shorter (1.01 Å) and one longer (1.57 Å) H–O bond length. In the fourth H1+ site, H1+ is bonded in a single-bond geometry to one O2- atom. The H–O bond length is 0.98 Å. There are six inequivalent O2- sites. In the first O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted bent 150 degrees geometry to one Ga3+ and one P5+ atom. In the second O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted trigonal planar geometry to one Ga3+, one P5+, and one H1+ atom. In the third O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted trigonal planar geometry to one Ga3+, one P5+, and one H1+ atom. In the fourth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted water-like geometry to one Ga3+ and two H1+ atoms. In the fifth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted trigonal planar geometry to one Ga3+, one P5+, and one H1+ atom. In the sixth O2- site, O2- is bonded in a distorted trigonal non-coplanar geometry to one Ga3+ and two H1+ atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on GaP by Materials Project

GaP is Wurtzite structured and crystallizes in the hexagonal P6_3mc space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ga3+ is bonded to four equivalent P3- atoms to form corner-sharing GaP4 tetrahedra. There are three shorter (2.38 Å) and one longer (2.39 Å) Ga–P bond lengths. P3- is bonded to four equivalent Ga3+ atoms to form corner-sharing PGa4 tetrahedra.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on GaP by Materials Project

GaP is High Pressure Cadmuum Telluride structured and crystallizes in the orthorhombic Pmm2 space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ga3+ is bonded in a linear geometry to two equivalent P3- atoms. Both Ga–P bond lengths are 2.63 Å. P3- is bonded to two equivalent Ga3+ and four equivalent P3- atoms to form a mixture of edge and corner-sharing PGa2P4 octahedra. The corner-sharing octahedra tilt angles range from 0–1°. There are two shorter (2.56 Å) and two longer (2.57 Å) P–P bond lengths.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on GaP by Materials Project

GaP is SC16 CuCl, stable at 5GPa structured and crystallizes in the cubic Pa-3 space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ga3+ is bonded to four equivalent P3- atoms to form corner-sharing GaP4 tetrahedra. There are one shorter (2.34 Å) and three longer (2.43 Å) Ga–P bond lengths. P3- is bonded to four equivalent Ga3+ atoms to form corner-sharing PGa4 trigonal pyramids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on GaP by Materials Project

GaP crystallizes in the orthorhombic Imm2 space group. The structure is three-dimensional. Ga3+ is bonded in a distorted see-saw-like geometry to four equivalent P3- atoms. There are two shorter (2.52 Å) and two longer (2.54 Å) Ga–P bond lengths. P3- is bonded in a distorted see-saw-like geometry to four equivalent Ga3+ atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Materials Data on GaP by Materials Project

GaP crystallizes in the trigonal R-3m space group. The structure is two-dimensional and consists of three GaP sheets oriented in the (0, 0, 1) direction. Ga3+ is bonded in a trigonal non-coplanar geometry to three equivalent P3- atoms. All Ga–P bond lengths are 2.40 Å. P3- is bonded to three equivalent Ga3+ and one P3- atom to form corner-sharing PGa3P tetrahedra. The P–P bond length is 2.21 Å.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MSR Salt Spill Accident Testing Using Eutectic NaCl-UCl 3

Assessing the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios is an essential part of the licensing process for a new nuclear reactor and is achieved by using accident progression models. A likely accident scenario that will be evaluated by developers of molten salt reactors (MSRs) is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). Models to determine the consequences of a molten salt spill accident need to be parameterized and validated using experimental data, but little experimental effort has been dedicated to fill these data gaps to date. Specifically, data is needed to enable model development for individual processes (e.g., spreading, heat transfer, corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) that quantifies the sensitivities towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, integrated experiments that simulate salt spill accidents will need to be conducted to provide insight into coupled processes and data for model validation, but these experiments will require the use of proven methods to quantify the processes under evaluation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗