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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Contrasting Carbon–Water–Energy Dynamics in Perennial and Annual Bioenergy Agroecosystems Using Eddy Covariance and Interpretable Machine Learning

Understanding how agroecosystems respond to environmental variability is fundamental to predicting productivity and sustainability under a changing climate. We analyzed 55 site-years of high-frequency eddy covariance observations from five agroecosystems—two perennial grasses (miscanthus and switchgrass), two annual rotation systems (maize–soybean and sorghum–soybean), and a restored native prairie—to examine ecosystem-scale carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Using an interpretable machine-learning framework with regression tree ensembles, Shapley Additive Explanations, and Accumulated Local Effects, we quantified how environmental and temporal factors regulate gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), water-use efficiency, and the Bowen ratio. Perennials exhibited stronger physiological buffering and maintained fluxes across a broader range of temperature and moisture conditions, reflecting deeper rooting and persistent canopy cover. Annuals, in contrast, showed greater short-term variability and stronger coupling to atmospheric demand, with GPP and ET declining rapidly under low humidity or soil moisture. Differences in temperature sensitivity of Bowen ratio further revealed that perennials sustained proportionally greater sensible heat flux under cool conditions, whereas annuals exhibited constrained energy exchange when evaporative demand was low. Together, these results demonstrate that crop life cycle and canopy structure are fundamental determinants of ecosystem-scale carbon–water–energy coupling. By integrating long-term flux observations with interpretable machine learning, this study identifies the environmental drivers that shape agroecosystem function and highlights how conversion from annual to perennial feedstocks can enhance climatic resilience and alter land–atmosphere energy feedbacks. These findings provide a data-driven basis for improving crop and Earth-system models and for guiding bioenergy landscape design under future climate scenarios.

Accumulated Local Effects↗

Reliable statistics-based detection and investigation of anomalies in a SMART valve system

Reliable anomaly detection and diagnosis are critical for the safe operation of complex engineered systems. This study presents a unified framework that integrates statistical, model-based, and data-driven techniques for anomaly detection and investigation, demonstrated on SMART valve systems in hybrid energy applications. Four detection methods—mean deviation, seasonal extreme studentized deviate, ARIMA forecasting, and matrix profiling—were implemented and compared. Matrix profiling was particularly effective in revealing subtle deviations and hidden relationships among variables. Anomaly investigation was performed by analyzing variable-level and grouped signal profiles, with system topology incorporated to distinguish primary faults from propagated effects. Grouping signals by type enhanced interpretability, enabling accurate localization of anomalies across multi-dimensional datasets. Experimental results confirmed the framework's capability to consistently detect and isolate anomalies while providing actionable insights into system interdependencies. The proposed methodology offers a robust, interpretable, and scalable solution for condition monitoring, with potential applications in safety-critical domains such as nuclear energy, aerospace, and process industries.

ARIMA models↗

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Characterizing peak electricity demand for U.S. households: an assessment of end-use loads and demand factors

Understanding household peak electricity demand is critical to evaluate the technical need for electrical infrastructure upgrades. This study characterizes peak loads for existing and new equipment using metered data from a convenience sample of 11,940 U.S. dwellings from four sources, including 911 from two sources with end-use metering. After standardized data cleaning and labeling, we derived descriptive statistics for key metrics, such as maximum demand and demand factors, and developed predictive models relating 60- to 15-min demand for the National Electrical Code (NEC). Mean 15-min maximum demand was 9.7 kW (median 9.0 kW; IQR 7.0–11.5 kW, 95% CI 9.6–9.8 kW), indicating spare capacity in 98% of homes with hypothetical 100 A panels. Maximum demand increased with floor area and number of high-demand loads. Dwelling maximum demand was driven by higher-power, longer-duration heating appliances and vehicle charging, while most user-operated appliances contributed little. Demand factors are used to account for how most devices contribute less than their rated power to maximum demand. Existing load mean demand factors (28%; median 10%; IQR 0–58%; CI 28–29%) were higher than those for new loads (21%; median 7%; IQR 0–35%; CI 20–21%), because new loads changed the timing and magnitude of maximum demand. New high-demand loads had higher than average demand factors (40–60%). Whole dwelling demand factors support the NEC's 40% assumption, but they challenge its conservative 100% treatment of new HVAC. We propose a data-driven 50% demand factor for new equipment, which would align with metered data, improve affordability, and modernize electrical codes.

Appliances↗

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗

A foundation model for non-destructive defect identification from vibrational spectra

Defects are ubiquitous in solids and strongly influence materials’ functional properties. However, non-destructive characterization and quantification of defects, especially when multiple types coexist, remain a long-standing challenge. Here, we introduce DefectNet, a foundation machine learning model that predicts the chemical identity and concentration of substitutional point defects with multiple coexisting elements directly from vibrational spectra, specifically phonon density-of-states (PDoS). Trained on over 16,000 simulated spectra from 2,000 semiconductors, DefectNet employs a tailored attention mechanism to identify up to six distinct defect elements at concentrations ranging from 0.2% to 25%. The model generalizes well to unseen crystals across 56 elements and can be fine-tuned on experimental data. Validation using inelastic scattering measurements of SiGe alloys and MgB 2 superconductor demonstrates its accuracy and transferability. Furthermore, our work establishes vibrational spectroscopy as a viable, non-destructive probe for bulk point defect quantification, and highlights the promise of foundation models in data-driven defect engineering.

artificial intelligence↗

Commutative Algebra Modeling in Materials Science – A Case Study on Metal–Organic Frameworks (MOFs)

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a class of important crystalline and highly porous materials whose hierarchical geometry and chemistry hinder interpretable predictions in materials properties. Commutative algebra is a branch of abstract algebra that has been rarely applied in data and material sciences. We introduce the first ever commutative algebra modeling and prediction in materials science. Specifically, category-specific commutative algebra (CSCA) is proposed as a new framework for MOF representation and learning. It integrates element-based categorization with multiscale algebraic invariants to encode both local coordination motifs and global network organization of MOFs. These algebraically consistent, chemically aware representations enable compact, interpretable, and data efficient modeling of MOF properties such as Henry’s constants and uptake capacities for common gases. Compared to traditional geometric and graph-based approaches, CSCA achieves comparable or superior predictive accuracy while substantially improving interpretability and stability across data sets. By aligning commutative algebra with the chemical hierarchy, the CSCA establishes a rigorous and generalizable paradigm for understanding structure and property relationships in porous materials and provides a nonlinear algebra-based framework for data-driven material discovery.

Khaemba, Caleb S.↗

Technoeconomic and Life Cycle Analysis of an Integrated Fermentation and Microbial Electrochemical Process for Volatile Fatty Acid Production from Food Waste

Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were conducted for an integrated system designed for the production of volatile fatty acid (VFA) from food waste. The TEA estimated a production cost of $\$$3.12/kg VFA, and the LCA predicted negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of -0.4 kg CO 2 e/kg VFA, driven primarily by diverting organic waste from landfills and avoiding methane emissions while producing valuable chemical products. Hotspot analysis showed arrested methanogenesis (AM) fermentation as the largest contributor to costs (37%) and environmental burden (47%), driven by high sodium hydroxide (NaOH) consumption. Distillation and microbial electrosynthesis (MES) units were the next-largest environmental contributors (28% and 18%). Major cost drivers also included residuals management (biosolids and wastewater) and the equipment and operating costs for AM, MES, and sonication pretreatment units. Although the new integrated system is environmentally benign, its costs and environmental impacts can be further reduced by integrating alternative energy sources, minimizing chemical and energy inputs through process optimization, and improving efficiency. In conclusion, this work highlighted the viability of waste-derived VFA production and provided a clear, data-driven strategy to accelerate the commercialization of waste valorization technology.

Carboxylic Acid Production↗

Neural Network‐Based Methods for Ocean Surface Wave Measurement Using Submarine Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS)

Two new data-driven models for estimating ocean surface waves from distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) submarine cable strain rate are developed using supervised machine learning on a 10-day data set collected offshore of Oliktok Point, Alaska. The new models were trained on target data from seafloor pressure moorings at three sites spaced evenly along 27.1 km of cable and were benchmarked against an empirical transfer function method previously used to estimate waves from DAS. A model which uses convolutional neural networks to transform 2-km frequency-wavenumber strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.15 vs. 0.41 m) and period prediction (0.29 vs. 0.37 s) when evaluated on a held-out test data set. When applied to a DAS data set collected on the same cable 2 years prior, the CNN-based model maintained similar significant wave height performance (RMSE = 0.23 m) relative to available satellite altimetry data. A two-hidden-layer, fully connected neural network which transforms 1-D strain spectra to seafloor pressure spectra also outperforms the benchmark in wave height prediction (RMSE of 0.19 vs. 0.41 m), but does not generalize as well to the prior data. Regression-based machine learning is useful for estimating waves from DAS data when the pressure-strain relationship varies temporally and spatially across different wave conditions. Models can be applied to DAS data to measure waves with higher spatial resolution and longer temporal coverage than traditional methods, which often measure waves only at a single point.

Davis, Jacob R. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA ↗

Accelerating catalytic advancements through the precision of high-throughput experiments & calculations

The growing demand for energy-efficient processes to support a sustainable future drives the need for research to rapidly explore chemical and material space through accelerated catalyst discovery initiatives. Recent breakthroughs in high-throughput experimental and computational methods are transforming the catalysis field, surpassing traditional approaches to manipulating variables in catalytic processes. Key advancements in innovation include the integration of machine learning for efficient catalyst screening, high-throughput experimentation, data-driven methodologies employing comprehensive databases, and in situ and in operando techniques for realistic observations. This progress has undoubtedly been intertwined with a collaborative framework across disciplines, reshaping catalyst discovery methods in both industry and academia. This Opinion article presents a multifaceted perspective from coauthors with expertise spanning various stages of the Technology Readiness Level spectrum, highlighting both opportunities and persistent challenges in integrating computational and experimental approaches in catalysis. These challenges span from obtaining high-quality experimental data, scaling simulations to industrially relevant materials and process conditions to navigating the complexity and predictive accuracy of computational models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deployment of Traditional and Hybrid Machine Learning for Critical Heat Flux Prediction in the CTF Thermal-Hydraulics Code

Critical heat flux (CHF) marks the transition from nucleate to film boiling, where heat transfer to the working fluid can rapidly deteriorate. Accurate CHF prediction is essential for efficiency, safety, and preventing equipment damage, particularly in nuclear reactors. Although widely used, empirical correlations frequently exhibit discrepancies when compared to experimental data, limiting their reliability in diverse operational conditions. Traditional machine learning (ML) approaches have demonstrated potential for CHF prediction but often suffer from limited interpretability, data scarcity, and insufficient knowledge of physical principles. Hybrid model approaches, which combine data-driven ML with base models, mitigate these concerns by incorporating prior knowledge of the domain. This study integrates an externally trained purely data-driven ML model and two hybrid models (using the Biasi and Bowring CHF correlations) within the CTF subchannel code via a custom Fortran framework. Performance was evaluated using two validation cases: a subset of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CHF database and the Bennett dryout experiments. In both cases, the hybrid models demonstrated significantly lower error metrics compared to conventional empirical correlations, with the best models often reducing relative error by about 5 percentage points. The pure ML model achieved comparable accuracy, outperforming the hybrid Biasi model in the NRC test case (3.3% versus 5.5% relative error) but exhibiting slightly higher error against the hybrid Bowring model in the Bennett test case (7.7% versus 6.1%). Trend analysis of error parity indicated that ML-based models reduced the tendency for CHF overprediction, improving overall accuracy. These results demonstrate that ML-based CHF models can be effectively integrated into subchannel codes and could potentially increase performance compared to conventional methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Pre-training Vision Models for the Classification of Alerts from Wide-field Time-domain Surveys

Modern wide-field time-domain surveys facilitate the study of transient, variable and moving phenomena by conducting image differencing and relaying alerts to their communities. Machine learning tools have been used on data from these surveys and their precursors for more than a decade, and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), which make predictions directly from input images, saw particularly broad adoption through the 2010s. Since then, continually rapid advances in computer vision have transformed the standard practices around using such models. It is now commonplace to use standardized architectures pre-trained on large corpora of everyday images (e.g., ImageNet). In contrast, time-domain astronomy studies still typically design custom CNN architectures and train them from scratch. Here, we explore the effects of adopting various pre-training regimens and standardized model architectures on the performance of alert classification. We find that the resulting models match or outperform a custom, specialized CNN like what is typically used for filtering alerts. Moreover, our results show that pre-training on galaxy images from Galaxy Zoo tends to yield better performance than pre-training on ImageNet or training from scratch. We observe that the design of standardized architectures are much better optimized than the custom CNN baseline, requiring significantly less time and memory for inference despite having more trainable parameters. On the eve of the Legacy Survey of Space and Time and other image-differencing surveys, these findings advocate for a paradigm shift in the creation of vision models for alerts, demonstrating that greater performance and efficiency, in time and in data, can be achieved by adopting the latest practices from the computer vision field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Latent Twins

Over the past decade, scientific machine learning has transformed the development of mathematical and computational frameworks for analyzing, modeling, and predicting complex systems. From inverse problems to numerical partial differential equations (PDEs), dynamical systems, and model reduction, these advances have pushed the boundaries of what can be simulated. Yet they have often progressed in parallel, with representation learning and algorithmic solution methods evolving largely as separate pipelines. With Latent Twins, we propose a unifying mathematical framework that creates a hidden surrogate in latent space for the underlying equations. Whereas digital twins mirror physical systems in the digital world, Latent Twins mirror mathematical systems in a learned latent space governed by operators. Through this lens, classical modeling, inversion, model reduction, and operator approximation all emerge as special cases of a single principle. We establish the fundamental approximation properties of Latent Twins for both ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and PDEs and demonstrate the framework across three representative settings: (i) canonical ODEs, capturing diverse dynamical regimes; (ii) a PDE benchmark using the shallow-water equations, contrasting Latent Twin simulations with deep operator network and forecasts with a four-dimensional variational method baseline; and (iii) a challenging real-data geopotential reanalysis dataset, reconstructing and forecasting from sparse, noisy observations. Latent Twins provide a compact, interpretable surrogate for solution operators that evaluate across arbitrary time gaps in a single-shot, while remaining compatible with scientific pipelines such as assimilation, control, and uncertainty quantification. Looking forward, this framework offers scalable, theory-grounded surrogates that bridge data-driven representation learning and classical scientific modeling across disciplines.

Latent Twins↗

Accelerating Traction Motor Optimization Design with AI Surrogate Models

The advancement of artificial intelligence systems enables the use of data-driven physics-based surrogate models to explore design spaces rapidly and deeply for engineering projects. This work presents a surrogate model workflow that accelerates electric traction motor design optimization by replacing finite element analysis (FEA) with an artificial neural network (ANN) and using this model in a genetic algorithm for design optimization. A baseline interior permanent-magnet motor is parameterized and sampled to generate FEA-labeled training data, after which a feed-forward ANN predicts key outputs (e.g., loss components and weight). The validated surrogate enables genetic-algorithm optimization and deep search over the design space without new FEA runs, producing Pareto-optimal trade-offs between weight and losses and set of optimized designs for rapid downselection of manufacturable motor designs.

Ribeiro, Pedro [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000921026641)↗

Resilience Through Data-Driven, Intelligent Designed Control: A Formal Methods Approach

The PNNL and GTRI team developed a strategy to integrate temporal logic rule specification for detection of cyber-intrusion in the source code and control algorithms of CPS using advanced cyber-data. The GTRI team utilized its capabilities in rule synthesis and temporal logic specifications for software assurance and verification to detect and predict impact of cyber-intrusions and malware in the computational and control algorithms of cyber-physical systems. The team also developed a testing and verification approach that could be used to validate the suggested approach against a realistic use-case CPS showcasing improvements in system impact prediction performance. Temporal logic offers a compact expression of events in absolute and relative time and has a formalized translation to state machines. As such, temporal logic rules can feasibly be synthesized to any system as a rule engine, with the process being formally verified to be correct. The goal here is to utilize temporal logic rules to detect cyber-attacks and manipulations in the computational algorithms and provide real-time software assurance and verification guarantees.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗