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NASA NTRS2019

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1: Development, Verification, and Validation

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has developed the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) primarily as a tool for spacecraft designers and other users to understand the long-term risk of collisions with orbital debris. The newest version, ORDEM 3.1, incorporates the latest and highest fidelity datasets available to build and validate representative orbital debris populations encompassing low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO) altitudes for the years 2016-2050. ORDEM 3.1 models fluxes for object sizes > 10 μm within or transiting LEO and > 10 cm in GEO. The deterministic portion of the populations in ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage down to approximately 10 cm in LEO and 1 m in GEO. Observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller sizes and orbit regions that are not well-covered by the SSN catalog, yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. Objects in LEO ranging from approximately 5 mm to 10 cm are modeled using observational data from ground-based radar, namely the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR – formerly known as Haystack). The LEO population smaller than approximately 3 mm in size is characterized based on a reanalysis of in situ data from impacts to the windows and radiators of the U.S. Space Transportation System orbiter vehicle, i.e., the Space Shuttle. Data from impacts on the Hubble Space Telescope are also used to validate the sub-millimeter model populations in LEO. Debris in GEO with sizes ranging from 10 cm to 1 m is modeled using optical measurement data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST). Specific, major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos 2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as sodium-potassium droplets, have been re-examined and are modeled and added to the ORDEM environment separately. The debris environment greater than 1 mm is forecast using NASA’s LEO-to- GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND). Future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically, and the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments from these events. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are further differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to spacecraft. The future projection of the sub-millimeter environment is computed using a special small-particle degradation model where small particles are created from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies. This work discusses the development, features, and capabilities of the ORDEM 3.1 model; the ne new data analyses used to build the model populations; and sample verification and validation results.

Matney, M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Micro-meteoroid and orbital debris radar from Goldstone Radar observations

Micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) refers to millions of micrometeoroids and orbital debris orbiting the Earth, which can come from remaining parts of spacecraft from previous missions. These debris objects keep colliding and creating new pieces of debris, with very different sizes ranging from millimeters to meters. About 99.3% of the debris objects have a size < 1 cm. These debris objects, traveling at speeds of 10 km/s, can cause significant damage to spacecraft, satellites, and astronauts. Despite the historic use of shielding to protect vital spacecraft components, MMOD still present a potential hazard for future missions and operations involving humans in space. Goldstone’s orbital debris radar (ODR) enhances the NASA orbital debris model with radar observation data, providing vital information on orbital debris detections: size, Doppler, range, and orbit inclination angle. These observations currently provide the only access to information about this size class (2 mm to 10 mm) of orbital debris. Goldstone’s ODR experiments operate as a bistatic radar, with overlapping beams providing a wide distribution of ranges. From 2004 to early 2018, Goldstone’s ODR has been collecting orbital debris data from altitudes covering 280 km to 3000 km. Since the decommissioning of the receive antenna in early 2018, Goldstone’s range coverage is reduced to a 300 km window within a 600 km to 1000 km potential range coverage, depending on the pointing geometry and antenna station used. We are investigating alternative transmit receive configurations at Goldstone to recover our previous wide range coverage.

Rodriguez-Alvarez, Nereida↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Survey of Modeling Activities by NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office

NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops and maintains a number of modeling tools to analyze and simulate the orbital debris environment. One of the most important products produced by the NASA ODPO is the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This model can be used by satellite designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The ODPO is currently working on the next generation, designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and the ability to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. A new addition will be a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, including DebriSat. ORDEM is primarily based on dedicated debris measurements, such as by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, and observations of geosynchronous orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). In addition to ORDEM, the ODPO also maintains other models, such as the LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model for studies of long-term evolution of Earth’s debris environment, with the ability to study various mitigation and remediation strategies. Another model, the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM), is used to analyze how satellite breakups may affect critical space missions (such as the ISS) on short notice. In addition to these models, the ODPO maintains other secondary models used to model satellite explosions and collisions, analyze radar, optical, and in situ data, and to model such things as solar activity and orbit evolution. In this presentation, a survey of these models will be presented, showing how the different models are used together to create a comprehensive picture of Earth’s debris environment.

Mark Matney↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IAC Abstract for Orbital Debris Phase II Report

Orbital debris poses a growing risk for spacecraft operations. This risk has most often been measured by proxies, like the number of debris or expected collisions, but few have attempted quantify the consequences of orbital debris or the costs and benefits of different methods to address the problem. This has made it difficult to assess the trade-offs and relative value among proposed actions for the mitigation, tracking, and remediation of debris. In March of 2023, the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) took a step toward quantifying these relative values when we released Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation. Since that time, OTPS has continued to build on this work. We have increased the fidelity of our risk model. For example, we added an ensemble of risk models that use varying assumptions of debris populations and lethality, included debris as small as 1mm, and incorporated atmospheric drag to naturally deorbit debris. We have also expanded our cost-benefit calculations to include action that mitigate and track debris, both large and small. The analysis has several important findings regarding the conditions under which debris remediation is more cost-effective than mitigation and tracking, the value of increased shielding of spacecraft and faster timelines for post-mission disposal, and how changes in the portfolio have interdependent effects. This presentation summarizes the body of work, with a particular focus on the risks and benefits to the global spacecraft population.

orbital debris↗
NASA NTRS1992

Origin of orbital debris impacts on Long Duration Exposure Facility's (LDEF) trailing surfaces

Orbital debris tracked by the US Space Command is mostly in near circular orbit around the Earth. If small debris were in the same types of orbits, there would be very few orbital debris impacts on the Long Duration Exposure Facility's (LDEF's) trailing surfaces. However, at least 15 percent of the impacts found on the trailing A03 gold surface was found to be orbital debris impacts. This measurement suggests that the orbital distribution of small debris is not the same as that of larger debris. Although this is not a total surprise, since modelling of satellite breakups has predicted different distributions, it does raise questions as to what types of orbits could be responsible for these impacts. A model was developed to explain these LDEF results. The model calculates the expected debris impact crater distribution around LDEF, as a function of debris orbital parameters. The results show that only low inclination and highly elliptical orbits could be responsible for these impacts. The most common object left in this type of orbit is an orbital transfer stage, used by the US and ESA to place objects into geosynchronous orbit, and inclinations near 28 and 7 degrees for the US and ESA, respectively. Even large fragments from satellites, which break up in these types of orbits, are difficult to observe from the ground; consequently, little is known about the number and characteristics of breakups in these orbits. The LDEF data suggest that these objects are breaking up. The LDEF data also suggest that the ratio of the contribution of small debris from this type of orbit to the contribution from circular orbits is about an order of magnitude larger than the same ratio for debris tracked by the US Space Command.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The International Space Station and the Space Debris Environment: 10 Years On

For just over a decade the International Space Station (ISS), the most heavily protected vehicle in Earth orbit, has weathered the space debris environment well. Numerous hypervelocity impact features on the surface of ISS caused by small orbital debris and meteoroids have been observed. In addition to typical impacts seen on the large solar arrays, craters have been discovered on windows, hand rails, thermal blankets, radiators, and even a visiting logistics module. None of these impacts have resulted in any degradation of the operation or mission of the ISS. Validating the rate of small particle impacts on the ISS as predicted by space debris environment models is extremely complex. First, the ISS has been an evolving structure, from its original 20 metric tons to nearly 300 metric tons (excluding logistics vehicles) ten years later. Hence, the anticipated space debris impact rate has grown with the increasing size of ISS. Secondly, a comprehensive visual or photographic examination of the complete exterior of ISS has never been accomplished. In fact, most impact features have been discovered serendipitously. Further complications include the estimation of the size of an impacting particle without knowing its mass, velocity, and angle of impact and the effect of shadowing by some ISS components. Inadvertently and deliberately, the ISS has also been the source of space debris. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network officially cataloged 65 debris from ISS from November 1998 to November 2008: from lost cameras, sockets, and tool bags to intentionally discarded equipment and an old space suit. Fortunately, the majority of these objects fall back to Earth quickly with an average orbital lifetime of less than two months and a maximum orbital lifetime of a little more than 15 months. The cumulative total number of debris object-years is almost exactly 10, the equivalent of one piece of debris remaining in orbit for 10 years. An unknown number of debris too small to be tracked and cataloged have also been generated, but normally with even shorter orbital lifetimes. Finally, eight collision avoidance maneuvers have been performed to avoid potential collisions between ISS and large, tracked space debris. The most recent such maneuver was accomplished by ESA's Automated Transfer Vehicle, the Jules Verne, just three months before the 10th anniversary of the launch of ISS's first element.

Johnson, Nicholas↗
NASA NTRS2009

Orbital Debris Research at NASA

The United States has one of the most active programs of research of the orbital debris environment in the world. Much of the research is conducted by NASA s Orbital Debris Program Office at the Johnson Space Center. Past work by NASA has led to the development of national space policy which seeks to limit the growth of the debris population and limit the risk to spacecraft and humans in space and on the Earth from debris. NASA has also been instrumental in developing consistent international policies and standards. Much of NASA's efforts have been to measure and characterize the orbital debris population. The U.S. Department of Defense tracks and catalogs spacecraft and large debris with it's Space Surveillance Network while NASA concentrates on research on smaller debris. In low Earth orbit, NASA has utilized short wavelength radars such as Haystack, HAX, and Goldstone to statistically characterize the population in number, size, altitude, and inclination. For higher orbits, optical telescopes have been used. Much effort has gone into the understanding and removal of observational biases from both types of measurements. NASA is also striving to understand the material composition and shape characteristics of debris to assess these effects on the risk to operational spacecraft. All of these measurements along with data from ground tests provide the basis for near- and long-term modeling of the environment. NASA also develops tools used by spacecraft builders and operators to evaluate spacecraft and mission designs to assess compliance with debris standards and policies which limit the growth of the debris environment.

Stansbery, Eugene G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Activities on Space Debris in U.S.

In the U.S. space debris activities are addressed at all government levels, from the Executive Office of the President to the individual federal agencies to specialized centers, laboratories, organizations, and research groups. U.S. Space Policy specifically challenges government agencies to seek to minimize the creation of space debris and to promote debris minimization practices both domestically and internationally. A set of space debris mitigation standard practices has been developed and adopted by relevant US government agencies, and their application by the commercial aerospace community is highly encouraged. A growing number of US government agencies have issued their own space debris mitigation policies, directives, regulations, and standards. Space debris research, including the definition and modeling of the current and future near-Earth space environment and the development of debris protection technologies, is principally conducted by NASA and the Department of Defense. The U.S. Space Surveillance Network continues to provide the most complete and timely characterization of the population of space debris larger than 10 cm. During the past several years major advancements have been achieved in extending this environment definition in LEO to include particles as small as only a few millimeters. The inspection of returned spacecraft surfaces continues to shed light on the even smaller debris population. With improvements in computer technology, new and more capable programs have been and are being developed to solve a number of operational and research problems. Finally, the academic and industrial sectors of the U.S. are also increasing their participation in and contributions to space debris operations and research. The cooperation of satellite and launch vehicle developers and operators is essential to the U.S. objective of promoting the preservation of the space environment for future generations.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs

Over the past 50 years, various NASA communities have contributed significantly to maturing NASA s meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD)1 programs to their current state. As a result of these community efforts, and to NASA s credit, NASA s MMOD programs and models are now widely used and respected by the providers and users of both government and commercial satellites, nationally as well as internationally. Satellites have been redesigned to protect critical components from MMOD damage by moving critical components from exterior surfaces to deep inside a satellite s structure. Orbits are monitored and altered to minimize the risk of collision with tracked orbital debris. MMOD shielding added to the International Space Station (ISS) protects critical components and astronauts from potentially catastrophic damage that might result from smaller, untracked debris and meteoroid impacts. The space shuttle, as it orbited Earth, and whether docked to the ISS or not, was optimally oriented to protect its fragile thermal protection and thermal radiation systems from MMOD damage. In addition, astronauts inspected its thermal protection system for MMOD damage before the shuttle reentered Earth s atmosphere; Orion, NASA s capsule to carry astronauts to low Earth orbit, includes designs to mitigate the threat of MMOD damage and provide increased safety to the crew. When a handful of reasonable assumptions are used in NASA s MMOD models, scenarios are uncovered that conclude that the current orbital debris environment has already reached a "tipping point." That is, the amount of debris - in terms of the population of large debris objects, as well as overall mass of debris in orbit - currently in orbit has reached a threshold where it will continually collide with itself, further increasing the population of orbital debris. This increase will lead to corresponding increases in spacecraft failures, which will only create more feedback into the system, increasing the debris population growth rate. The increase thus far has been most rapid in low Earth orbit (LEO), with geosynchronous Earth orbits (GEOs) potentially suffering the same fate, but over a much longer time period. The exact timing and pace of this exponential growth are uncertain, but the serious implications of such a scenario require careful attention because of the strategic importance of U.S. space operations. The Office of Science and Technology Policy and the Office of Management and Budget contracted with the National Research Council for a study to perform three tasks: review NASA s MMOD programs and efforts, recommend in which of those NASA should increase or decrease its effort or change focus, and determine whether NASA should pursue work in any new MMOD areas. The official letter requesting the study and the full statement of task for the Committee for the Assessment of NASA s Orbital Debris Programs are in Appendixes A and B, respectively.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2006

Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Debris Assessment

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident revealed a fundamental problem of the Space Shuttle Program regarding debris. Prior to the tragedy, the Space Shuttle requirement stated that no debris should be liberated that would jeopardize the flight crew and/or mission success. When the accident investigation determined that a large piece of foam debris was the primary cause of the loss of the shuttle and crew, it became apparent that the risk and scope of - damage that could be caused by certain types of debris, especially - ice and foam, were not fully understood. There was no clear understanding of the materials that could become debris, the path the debris might take during flight, the structures the debris might impact or the damage the impact might cause. In addition to supporting the primary NASA and USA goal of returning the Space Shuttle to flight by understanding the SRB debris environment and capability to withstand that environment, the SRB debris assessment project was divided into four primary tasks that were required to be completed to support the RTF goal. These tasks were (1) debris environment definition, (2) impact testing, (3) model correlation and (4) hardware evaluation. Additionally, the project aligned with USA's corporate goals of safety, customer satisfaction, professional development and fiscal accountability.

Kendall, Kristin↗
NASA NTRS2014

NASA's Newest Orbital Debris Ground-based Telescope Assets: MCAT and UKIRT

NASA's Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) will break ground on Ascension Island in 2014 to build the newest optical (0.30 - 1.06 micrometers) ground-based telescope asset dedicated to the study of orbital debris. The Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) is a 1.3m optical telescope designed to track objects in orbits ranging from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). Ascension Island is located in the South Atlantic Ocean, offering longitudinal sky coverage not afforded by the Ground-based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance (GEODSS) network. With a fast-tracking dome, a suite of visible wide-band filters, and a time-delay integration (TDI) capable camera, MCAT is capable of multiple observing modes ranging from tracking cataloged debris targets to surveying the overall debris environment. Access to the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) will extend our spectral coverage into the near- (0.8-5 micrometers) and mid- to far-infrared (8-25 micrometers) regime. UKIRT is a 3.8m telescope located on Mauna Kea on the Big Island of Hawaii. At nearly 14,000-feet and above the atmospheric inversion layer, this is one of the premier astronomical sites in the world and is an ideal setting for an infrared telescope. An unprecedented one-third of this telescope's time has been allocated to collect orbital debris data for NASA's ODPO over a 2-year period. UKIRT has several instruments available to obtain low-resolution spectroscopy in both the near-IR and the mid/far-IR. Infrared spectroscopy is ideal for constraining the material types, albedos and sizes of debris targets, and potentially gaining insight into reddening effects caused by space weathering. In addition, UKIRT will be used to acquire broadband photometric imaging at GEO with the Wide Field Camera (WFCAM) for studying known objects of interest as well as collecting data in survey-mode to discover new targets. Results from the first stage of the debris campaign will be presented. The combination of these ground-based telescope assets will yield spectral coverage ranging from 0.3 - 25 micrmeters, allowing orbital debris to be studied in depth across a wider wavelength range in the visible and IR than ever previously studied by ODPO. Located on opposite sides of the world and in opposite hemispheres, they offer access to nearly the entire GEO belt on any given night, allowing immediate coverage of nearly any time-critical break-up event. By expanding the methods for surveying, detecting, and characterizing orbital debris, we can better model the debris environment and ultimately gain insight into how to mitigate potential collisions for future missions.

Lederer, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Probing Supraglacial Debris on Mars 1: Sources, Thickness, and Stratigraphy

Geomorphic and geophysical evidence supports a debris-covered glacier origin for a suite of landforms at themid-latitudes of Mars, including lobate debris aprons (LDA), lineated valley fill (LVF), and concentric crater fill (CCF). These large reservoirs of ice and their near-surface structure provide a rich record for understanding the planet's climate and history of global volatile exchange over the past billion years. LDA, LVF, and CCF are also potential sites for future robotic and human missions but the accessibility of glacial ice for direct sampling and in situ resource utilization depends largely on the geotechnical properties of the surface debris ("supraglacial debris"), including its thickness, grain sizes, and density structure. The physical properties of this supraglacial debris layer have been poorly constrained. We use images of morphology, digital elevation models, thermal inertia data, and radar sounding data to probe the near surface of LDA, LVF, and CCF in Deuteronilus Mensae in order to place constraints on the sources, grain sizes, thickness, and stratigraphy of supraglacial debris. We find evidence for at least a two-layer stratigraphy. Layered mantle consisting of atmospherically emplaced dust and ice superposes boulder-rich sediment sourced by rockfalls glacially transported downslope. High thermal inertia, boulder-rich termini and debris bands reminiscent of medial moraines are found throughout the study region, supporting a rockfall origin for at least a fraction of the debris exposed at the surface. This supraglacial debris layer would have thickened with time from sublimation of glacial ice and liberation of englacial sediment and dust. At present, the entire supraglacial debris package is a minimum of a few meters in thickness and is likely tens of meters in thickness in many locations, possibly thinning regionally at lower latitudes and locally thinning toward the headwalls. The lack of terracing or interior structures in craters formed within LDA, LVF, and CCF and the absence of near-surface reflectors in SHARAD radar data further suggest that no strong contrasts in

Supraglacial↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Laboratory Radar Measurements in Support of the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office’s Size Estimation Model

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) relies on ground-based radar measurements from both the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and the Goldstone Solar System Radar (Goldstone) to characterize mm to cm debris population in low Earth orbit (LEO). Radar measurements help characterize the size of orbital debris objects, particularly fragmentation debris. However, debris size is not directly measured by radar but inferred from the measured radar cross section (RCS) which depends on several parameters in addition to physical size including electrical conductivity and polarization. To interpret the observed RCS of orbital debris objects detected by radar measurements as physical sizes, NASA uses an empirical size estimation model (SEM) based on laboratory RCS measurements of breakup fragments generated during hypervelocity impact tests as well as some pieces of non-impact-generated “artificial” debris-like objects expected to be representative of the debris population. Since the development of the ODPO SEM, many new materials have been introduced to spacecraft construction. Consequently, ODPO plans to update the radar SEM based on planned laboratory RCS measurements of debris fragments from DebriSat, a ground-based hypervelocity impact experiment conducted in 2014 that consisted of a high-fidelity spacecraft model characteristic of a modern LEO spacecraft. Prior to measuring DebriSat fragments, a set of calibration targets with well-defined geometries and material compositions were measured at The Ohio State University’s ElectroScience Laboratory (OSU-ESL) compact radar range. These calibration measurements help to validate, and understand any limitations of, laboratory measurements of RCS. Calibration targets include idealizations of typical shape categories seen in DebriSat fragments such as nuggets, flat plates, and cylinders. As with DebriSat, calibration target materials were chosen to represent typical modern-day spacecraft components and include stainless steel, aluminum, printed circuit board (PCB) substrate, and carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP). These materials also represent a wide range of electrical conductivities, which strongly influences measured RCS and inferred target size. The RCS calibration measurements were collected over a frequency sweep from 2 to 18 GHz and stepping through different azimuth angles from 0 to 360 degrees at an elevation of 0 degrees. A second set of calibration measurements is in work consisting of more complex shapes such as bent rods and plates as well as different mounting options including epoxy and a 3D printed holder. These further measurements along with our initial calibration set will inform selection of representative DebriSat fragments for laboratory RCS measurements that will contribute to the planned update to the ODPO radar SEM. An appropriate subset of both the radar calibration and DebriSat samples will also be measured in the ODPO Optical Measurements Center to cross-calibrate size estimates over these different wavelength regimes.

Radar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Cost and Benefit Analysis of Orbital Debris Remediation, Mitigation,Tracking, and Characterization

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work(Colvin, Karcz, and Wusk. 2023), referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current paper summarizes the work of Locke and Colvin (2024), which contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Orbital Debris↗
NASA NTRS1992

Small orbital debris measurement: Recent advances and future problems

New measurements of the small orbital debris environment during the past three years have greatly expanded our knowledge of the population of orbital debris at sizes from 10 cm down to 100 microns. The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has provided new data for micro-debris at sizes below 1 mm. Telescope and radar measurements have provided new data for sizes in the range from about 2 mm to 10 cm., and have verified the predictions of Kessler's debris environment model. 'Clumps' or 'rings' of small debris, that are not accounted for in any environment models, have been detected both by LDEF and by the radars. Significant measurement problems remain. The relation between optical and radar measurements of debris is not understood. We have almost no information about the debris population in geosynchronous, Molniya and low-inclination orbits, and we lack evidence for the prediction of debris environments. Models of collisions in space between debris objects are beginning to be developed.

Potter, Andrew E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Characterization of the Space Shuttle Ascent Debris using CFD Methods

After video analysis of space shuttle flight STS-107's ascent showed that an object shed from the bipod-ramp region impacted the left wing, a transport analysis was initiated to determine a credible flight path and impact velocity for the piece of debris. This debris transport analysis was performed both during orbit, and after the subsequent re-entry accident. The analysis provided an accurate prediction of the velocity a large piece of foam bipod ramp would have as it impacted the wing leading edge. This prediction was corroborated by video analysis and fully-coupled CFD/six degree of freedom (DOF) simulations. While the prediction of impact velocity was accurate enough to predict critical damage in this case, one of the recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) for return-to-flight (RTF) was to analyze the complete debris environment experienced by the shuttle stack on ascent. This includes categorizing all possible debris sources, their probable geometric and aerodynamic characteristics, and their potential for damage. This paper is chiefly concerned with predicting the aerodynamic characteristics of a variety of potential debris sources (insulating foam and cork, nose-cone ablator, ice, ...) for the shuttle ascent configuration using CFD methods. These aerodynamic characteristics are used in the debris transport analysis to predict flight path, impact velocity and angle, and provide statistical variation to perform risk analyses where appropriate. The debris aerodynamic characteristics are difficult to determine using traditional methods, such as static or dynamic test data, due to the scaling requirements of simulating a typical debris event. The use of CFD methods has been a critical element for building confidence in the accuracy of the debris transport code by bridging the gap between existing aerodynamic data and the dynamics of full-scale, in-flight events.

Murman, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Whitlock, David↗
NASA NTRS2008

The New NASA Orbital Debris Mitigation Procedural Requirements and Standards

NASA has issued major updates to its principal orbital debris mitigation policy directive and standards. The new NASA Procedural Requirements for Limiting Orbital Debris (NPR 8715.6), with its supporting NASA Standard 8719.14, both refine earlier orbital debris mitigation documents and in some areas expand their applicability. Organizational and individual responsibilities along with general directives are set forth in NPR 8715.6. New requirements include routine conjunction assessments for all maneuverable NASA spacecraft in LEO and GEO, prompt notifications of intended or unintended debris generation, preparation and maintenance of formal end-of-mission plans, and disposal of vehicles in operation around the Moon and Mars and at the Earth-Sun Lagrangian points. NASA Standard 8719.14 replaces the 1995 NASA Safety Standard 1740.14 with no major new requirements but with several refinements and additions, some of which had already been adopted. Compliance with human casualty risk limitations from reentering debris will be calculated explicitly and not be expressed in terms of average debris casualty area. Moreover, the minimum kinetic energy threshold for potentially injurious reentering debris is set at 15 Joules. The overarching requirement for the disposal of GEO spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages is to ensure that the vehicles do not come within GEO + 200 km for at least 100 km after end of mission, rather than setting specific requirements for the disposal orbit. Spacecraft operating in or routinely transiting LEO must remain in the region for no more than 25 years after end of mission or 30 years after launch, whichever occurs sooner. A comprehensive new NASA handbook on orbital debris has also been prepared to provide background on the orbital debris environment and the related NASA mitigation requirements and standards.

Johnson, Nicholas L.↗