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When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?

Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10-40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. Here we use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25-30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Bounding the costs of electric vehicle managed charging—supply curves for scenarios from 2025 to 2050

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption increases, the resulting EV battery charging will increase demand on the electric power grid. Through EV managed charging (EVMC) programs, charging can be shifted in time to support electric grid reliability and reduce electricity costs. EVMC can offer an alternative to additional supply-side generation, but the costs of EVMC implementation must be understood to evaluate the cost-benefits of EVMC. This paper presents bottom-up, forward-looking (from 2025 through 2050) estimates of the incremental costs associated with different EVMC dispatch mechanisms available to electric utilities. The costs of enabling EVMC for a range of customer participation levels are presented in the form of supply curves, which provide per-EV costs for a targeted level of participation. The largest drivers of cost variation are assumptions about future charging flexibility paradigms described in four scenarios. These supply curves can be used to quantify the expected costs of EVMC programs and enable comparison with supply-side or other demand flexibility alternatives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles

Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Here, the multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle's load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.

Oke, Doris↗

Distribution Substation Planning Toolkit (dsp-toolkit) v1.0

The Distribution Substation Planning Toolkit (DSP Toolkit) is a software suite designed to streamline the planning and optimization of distribution substations. This toolkit offers a comprehensive set of tools and APIs for data curation, short-term electric load forecasting, and weather-sensitive load adjustment, making it an essential resource for utility companies, engineers, and researchers. Features • Data Preprocessing and Curation: Efficiently manage and preprocess large datasets to ensure high-quality input for analysis. • Short-Term Load Forecasting: Utilize data-driven models to predict short-term electric loads accurately. • Weather-Sensitive Modeling: Automatically adjust load forecasts based on weather data to predict future peak demands more precisely. Uses The DSP Toolkit is ideal for planning and optimizing distribution substations, providing a user-friendly interface and comprehensive documentation. It is suitable for both novice and experienced users, facilitating efficient and accurate planning processes. Advantages • Efficiency: Automates complex planning tasks, reducing manual effort and minimizing errors. • Scalability: Handles large datasets and complex models, making it suitable for large-scale projects. • Community and Support: Open-source with active community contributions, ensuring continuous improvement and support. • Extensibility: Easily extendable with custom modules and plugins, allowing users to tailor the toolkit to their specific needs. The DSP Toolkit stands out by offering a robust, flexible, and user-friendly solution for distribution substation planning. Public Abstract

Li, Han [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LB↗

Short-Term Load Forecasting Considering EV Charging Loads with Prediction Interval Evaluation

Short-term load forecasting plays a critical role in power system planning and operation. Along with the electrification of various loads, electricity demands are becoming increasingly hard to predict. Notably, the recent rise in electric vehicles (EVs) has further contributed to this unpredictability. To address this issue, this paper proposes a probabilistic load forecasting strategy utilizing Gaussian process regression, structured in a day-ahead manner. While many works focus on deterministic prediction, probabilistic forecasting offers additional insights into variability and uncertainty, enabling more flexible and reliable operation for power systems. To enhance the accuracy of the load forecasting model, the inputs include features related to EV charging habits as well as commonly used weather information. The load forecasting results are evaluated using various metrics, including conventional ones that assess the accuracy of point forecasts, as well as additional metrics that test the reliability of prediction intervals. The proposed load forecasting method is finally tested on real residential power consumption data and EV charging data sampled from real-world sources. The results prove that the new features can greatly improve the performance of the load forecasting method.

electrical vehicle↗

Enhancing Multi-Step Reservoir Inflow Forecasting: A Time-Variant Encoder–Decoder Approach

Accurate reservoir inflow forecasting is vital for effective water resource management. Reliable forecasts enable operators to optimize storage and release strategies to meet competing sectoral demands—such as water supply, irrigation, and hydropower scheduling—while also mitigating flood and drought risks. To address this need, in this study, we propose a novel time-variant encoder–decoder (ED) model designed specifically to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting, enabling accurate predictions of reservoir inflows up to seven days ahead. Unlike conventional ED-LSTM and recursive ED-LSTM models, which use fixed encoder parameters or recursively propagate predictions, our model incorporates an adaptive encoder structure that dynamically adjusts to evolving conditions at each forecast horizon. Additionally, we introduce the Expected Baseline Integrated Gradients (EB-IGs) method for variable importance analysis, enhancing interpretability of inflow by incorporating multiple baselines to capture a broader range of hydrometeorological conditions. The proposed methods are demonstrated at several diverse reservoirs across the United States. Our results show that they outperform traditional methods, particularly at longer lead times, while also offering insights into the key drivers of inflow forecasting. These advancements contribute to enhanced reservoir management through improved forecasting accuracy and practical decision-making insights under complex hydroclimatic conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

2025 Large Load Literature Review

This literature review catalogs more than 90 publications focused on large loads, and groups the documents and resources thematically into 12 categories, (listed below). The 2026 Large Load Literature Review and Data Sources summary reports are available here: https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/2026-large-load-literature-review -Load forecasting -Data sources -Reliability and resource adequacy -Large load interconnection -Demand flexibility -Generation -Co-location -Data center location/infrastructure -Large load tariffs -Policy options -Maps and tools -Design and operations

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Modeling Distributed Generation in California

In support of analysis for the biennial Integrated Energy Policy Report, the California Energy Commission and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have partnered to study the growth of distributed energy resources in California. This study involves the use of National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Distributed Generation Market Demand model, available at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/, to project statewide adoption of distributed photovoltaics and paired storage. Key outcomes of the collaboration include: • Improved representation of California building stock, load profiles, historical adoption, and tariffs, including the net billing tariff, in the dGen model; • Trained CEC staff members to use and adapt the dGen model for their specific needs; • Developed a methodology for representing emerging consumer segments to potentially adopt distributed energy resources, including low-income, multifamily, and renter-occupied buildings; • Forecasted solar photovoltaic and paired storage growth in California using a common set of modeling parameters. This report describes the multiyear effort, which includes a discussion of: • Methodology and data employed in adapting the Distributed Generation Market Demand model for California to forecast solar photovoltaic and storage statewide through 2040; • Steps taken to modify the base model to forecast solar photovoltaic adoption in emerging market segments such as multifamily or renter-occupied homes or both; • Future enhancements of the model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Examples of State and Utility Actions on Proactive Planning and Investments

As states across the U.S. confront rising electricity demand, clean energy deployment, grid modernization imperatives, and the integration of large new loads, some regulators and utilities are shifting away from reactive, “just-in-time” investment approaches toward more proactive planning and investment frameworks. This report compiles examples of jurisdictional and utility actions that reshape planning processes, cost recovery mechanisms, and performance oversight to anticipate—rather than simply respond to—future grid needs. Several themes emerge from state actions examined in this report. First, legislatures and commissions are increasingly directing utilities to proactively upgrade their distribution and transmission systems, reflecting a shift toward a forward-looking system that aligns planning with state policy goals. Second, states are establishing long-term, iterative planning frameworks that often feature multi-year horizons, biannual or annual compliance reporting, structured opportunities for stakeholder engagement, and emphasis on collaboration among utilities, regulators, and stakeholders. Third, states are actively investigating innovative cost recovery mechanisms designed to support accelerated electrification and grid modernization, while balancing consumer advocates’ concerns regarding the ratepayer financial risks of premature investments. Fourth, performance metrics and reporting requirements are being developed to ensure transparency and accountability for proactive investments. Fifth, methodological improvements in planning—such as aligning load forecasting assumptions, incorporating sensitivities, and considering load management potential across building, vehicles, storage, and demand response—are recurring areas of stakeholder focus across jurisdictions. Overall, these developments signify a growing recognition among state regulators, utilities, and stakeholders that proactive planning—supported by clear definitions, consistent and transparent methodologies, robust performance metrics, and innovative cost recovery mechanisms—is a tool that can be used to address the scale and urgency of contemporary grid needs.

electricity market↗

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗

Coordinated Natural Gas and Electric Planning: Case Studies of Current Approaches and Practices

This paper examines how natural gas and electric utilities across eight U.S. states and two Canadian provinces are beginning to coordinate historically separate planning processes in response to growing system interdependencies, policy mandates, aging infrastructure, and changing customer energy choices. Electricity planning has long relied on robust integrated resource planning frameworks that weigh numerous objectives, risks, and costs. Natural gas planning, on the other hand, is typically less transparent and more narrowly focused on safety and system integrity. As economic, reliability, and policy drivers place new and shared demands on both systems, jurisdictions and utilities are experimenting with approaches such as coordinated forecasting, non pipeline alternatives, and combined planning pilots. A few have issued regulatory or statutory directives for greater data sharing and methodological alignment. Case studies from British Columbia, California, Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Québec, Rhode Island, and Washington illustrate a wide range of approaches to rethinking siloed planning. The paper identifies several common themes across the jurisdictions examined. It provides observations on the methods, processes, and organizational steps that may be needed in the future to address the challenges being faced by states and utilities. Lastly, it identifies some initial steps that states and utilities can consider if they would like to pursue more integrated, cost-effective, policy-aligned energy system planning.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Machine learning-enhanced MPC for demand flexibility in small commercial buildings: An experimental study

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCBs) represent the majority of U.S. commercial building stock and a significant share of peak electricity demand, yet they often lack centralized building automation systems, representing a significant untapped resource for urban energy management. This infrastructure gap makes advanced control implementation challenging, limiting the potential for widespread demand flexibility. Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown strong potential for load shifting, peak demand reduction, and cost savings, but its effectiveness is hindered by unmeasured disturbances such as internal heat gains. This paper presents a Hybrid MPC framework that integrates a physics-based gray-box building thermal model, identified using a lumped disturbance (LD) approach, with a machine learning (ML) model for forecasting unmeasured disturbances. The hybrid approach is designed for buildings with multiple individually controlled heat pump and thermostat pairs, common in SMCBs, and aims to optimize coordinated scheduling of multiple heat pumps under dynamic electricity pricing while respecting comfort constraints. The methodology is validated through both simulations of case study buildings and experimental studies at a highly-instrumented test facility. Simulation results show that the Hybrid MPC achieves substantial load shifting and peak demand reduction, approaching the performance of an ideal MPC with perfect disturbance knowledge, and outperforming a conventional MPC without disturbance forecasting. In experiments, the Hybrid MPC reduced daily HVAC energy costs by 8.7%, peak-price time load (load shifting) by 41.7%, and peak demand by 29.2% compared to baseline control, demonstrating comparable benefits to the 11.6% cost savings, 42.9% load shifting, and 23.2% peak reduction of the ideal MPC. These results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid modeling approach can significantly improve MPC performance in real-world SMCB applications without requiring additional disturbance measurements.

Demand Flexibility↗

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Urban heat islands can influence the wind energy resource during heatwaves

Urban wind energy is critical for sustainable electricity generation in cities. However, little research has explored how the urban heat island (UHI) effect influences wind energy, particularly in heatwaves when energy demand surges. In this study, we examine wind energy distribution in the Boston–Providence metropolitan area during heatwaves, using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model integrated with Building Energy Parameterization/Building Energy Model (BEP/BEM). Two scenarios, a realistic case and a hypothetical case without urban warmth, were compared to isolate UHI impacts. Results reveal that UHI induces a "wind energy loss zone" in this urban area, reducing wind power density (WPD) by 20–30 W/m 2 at 50–100 m, while suburban/rural areas exhibit a "wind energy gain zone," with WPD increases up to 40 W/m 2 at 150–200 m. These losses diminish with distance from urban centers and become negligible beyond main urban and suburban sprawl. Heatwave expands the urban "loss zone", while amplifying wind energy gains in suburban/rural areas, driven by stronger thermal gradients and weakened background winds that intensify air convergence in urban and urban-rural circulations, thereby exacerbating urban wind energy losses by 15–20 %. An analysis of 235 wind farms using turbine power curves reveals that built areas dependent on stand-alone or off-grid turbines face significant energy deficits during a heatwave. Wind energy drops by up to 25 %, while cooling-related building energy demand rises 30–40 % during a heatwave. These findings underscore the need for strategic urban wind energy planning to ensure reliable power during extreme heat.

Energy - Wind↗

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Guide for Public Utility Commissions: Building Internal Technical Capacity and Recruiting Talent for Grid Resilience

This guide offers insight into how PUCs can strategically expand their technical workforce to meet evolving gird resilience demands. It outlines critical skill sets needed to support informed regulatory decision-making around resilience, such as modeling and weather forecasting, electric power systems analysis, and advanced data interpretation. In addition, it provides strategies for developing technical talent both internally and through additional recruitment efforts. Two appendices provide a list of grid resilience training resources and a compendium of sample job descriptions that reflect grid resilience technical expertise for PUC consideration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Empirical Validation of a Constrained Bin Packing Algorithm for a Home Energy Management System

The increasing number of intelligent electrical appliances and home energy management systems provide a big opportunity for demand response services from residential and small commercial buildings to the grid. Simultaneously, direct control of individual devices by utilities can cause communication bottlenecks, as well as coordination and privacy concerns. These challenges can be addressed by combining the constituent devices into a single house battery equivalent for the purposes of demand response, using Minkowski sum and a 2d bin packing problem. However, the well-studied traditional problems have not been tested in a real house, as implementation carries significant challenges of its own. We deploy the packing problem on residential devices in a controllable house. We report the barriers we found, such as charge forecast and scalability of the algorithm, and discuss our solutions. The study serves as an intermediate step between existing theoretical research and possible future steps, such as prototype deployments of systems that provide residential demand response.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗