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DOE OSTI2017

Probability of Detection Study to Assess the Performance of Nondestructive Inspection Methods for Wind Turbine Blades.

Wind turbine blades pose a unique set of inspection challenges that span from very thick and attentive spar cap structures to porous bond lines, varying core material and a multitude of manufacturing defects of interest. The need for viable, accurate nondestructive inspection (NDI) technology becomes more important as the cost per blade, and lost revenue from downtime, grows. NDI methods must not only be able to contend with the challenges associated with inspecting extremely thick composite laminates and subsurface bond lines, but must also address new inspection requirements stemming from the growing understanding of blade structural aging phenomena. Under its Blade Reliability Collaborative program, Sandia Labs quantitatively assessed the performance of a wide range of NDI methods that are candidates for wind blade inspections. Custom wind turbine blade test specimens, containing engineered defects, were used to determine critical aspects of NDI performance including sensitivity, accuracy, repeatability, speed of inspection coverage, and ease of equipment deployment. The detection of fabrication defects helps enhance plant reliability and increase blade life while improved inspection of operating blades can result in efficient blade maintenance, facilitate repairs before critical damage levels are reached and minimize turbine downtime. The Sandia Wind Blade Flaw Detection Experiment was completed to evaluate different NDI methods that have demonstrated promise for interrogating wind blades for manufacturing flaws or in-service damage. These tests provided the Probability of Detection information needed to generate industry-wide performance curves that quantify: 1) how well current inspection techniques are able to reliably find flaws in wind turbine blades (industry baseline) and 2) the degree of improvements possible through integrating more advanced NDI techniques and procedures. _____________ S a n d i a N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r i e s i s a m u l t i m i s s i o n l a b o r a t o r y m a n a g e d a n d o p e r a t e d b y N a t i o n a l T e c h n o l o g y a n d E n g i n e e r i n g S o l u t i o n s o f S a n d i a , L L C , a w h o l l y o w n e d s u b s i d i a r y o f H o n e y w e l l I n t e r n a t i o n a l , I n c . , f o r t h e U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y ' s N a t i o n a l N u c l e a r S e c u r i t y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n u n d e r c o n t r a c t D E - N A 0 0 0 3 5 2 5 .

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Examining the potential for detecting simultaneous noble gas and aerosol samples in the international monitoring system radionuclide network

The purpose of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is to establish a legally binding ban on nuclear weapon test explosions or any other nuclear explosions. The Preparatory Commission for the CTBT Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) is developing the International Monitoring System (IMS) that includes a global network of 80 stations to monitor for airborne radionuclides upon entry into force of the CTBT. All 80 radionuclide stations will monitor for particulate radionuclides and at least half of the stations will monitor for radioxenon. The airborne radionuclide monitoring is an important verification technology both for the detection of a radionuclide release and in the determination of whether the release event originates from a nuclear explosion as opposed to an industrial use of nuclear materials. Nuclear power plants and many medical isotope production facilities release radioxenon into the atmosphere. Low levels of a few particulate isotopes, such as iodine, may also be released. Detections of multiple isotopes are useful for screening the radionuclide samples for relevance to the Treaty. This paper examines the anticipated joint detections in the IMS of noble gas and particulate isotopes from underground nuclear explosions where breaches in the underground containment vents from low levels to up to 1% of the radionuclide inventory of the resulting fission products to the atmosphere. Detection probabilities are based on 844 simulated release events spaced out at 17 release locations and one year in time. Six different release (venting) scenarios, including two fractionated scenarios, were analyzed. When ranked by detection probability, 11 particulate isotopes and one noble gas isotope ( 133 Xe) appear in the top 20 isotopes for all six release scenarios. Using the 11 particulate isotopes and the one noble gas isotope, the IMS has nearly the same detection probability as when 45 particulate and 4 noble gas isotopes are used. Thus, a limited list of relevant radionuclides may be sufficient for treaty verification purposes. The probability that at least one particulate and at least one radioxenon isotope would be detected in the IMS from the release events ranged from 0.15 to 0.86 depending on the release scenario.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study

The Director of the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC), requested an independent assessment of the anomalous gaseous hydrogen (GH2) flow incident on the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Vehicle (OV)-105 during the Space Transportation System (STS)-126 mission. The main propulsion system (MPS) engine #2 GH2 flow control valve (FCV) LV-57 transition from low towards high flow position without being commanded. Post-flight examination revealed that the FCV LV-57 poppet had experienced a fatigue failure that liberated a section of the poppet flange. The NESC assessment provided a peer review of the computational fluid dynamics (CFD), stress analysis, and impact testing. A probability of detection (POD) study was requested by the SSP Orbiter Project for the eddy current (EC) nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques that were developed to inspect the flight FCV poppets. This report contains the findings and recommendations from the NESC assessment.

Piascik, Robert S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NASA NTRS2011

Space Shuttle Program (SSP) Orbiter Main Propulsion System (MPS) Gaseous Hydrogen (GH2) Flow Control Valve (FCV) Poppet Eddy Current (EC) Inspection Probability of Detection (POD) Study: Appendices - Volume 2

Piascik, Robert S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Probability of detection of internal voids in structural ceramics using microfocus radiography

The reliability of microfocus x-radiography for detecting subsurface voids in structural ceramic test specimens was statistically evaluated. The microfocus system was operated in the projection mode using low X-ray photon energies (20 keV) and a 10 micro m focal spot. The statistics were developed for implanted subsurface voids in green and sintered silicon carbide and silicon nitride test specimens. These statistics were compared with previously-obtained statistics for implanted surface voids in similar specimens. Problems associated with void implantation are discussed. Statistical results are given as probability-of-detection curves at a 95 percent confidence level for voids ranging in size from 20 to 528 micro m in diameter.

Baaklini, G. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Probability of detection of internal voids in structural ceramics using microfocus radiography

The reliability of microfocous X-radiography for detecting subsurface voids in structural ceramic test specimens was statistically evaluated. The microfocus system was operated in the projection mode using low X-ray photon energies (20 keV) and a 10 micro m focal spot. The statistics were developed for implanted subsurface voids in green and sintered silicon carbide and silicon nitride test specimens. These statistics were compared with previously-obtained statistics for implanted surface voids in similar specimens. Problems associated with void implantation are discussed. Statistical results are given as probability-of-detection curves at a 95 precent confidence level for voids ranging in size from 20 to 528 micro m in diameter.

Baaklini, G. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Photon detection with cooled avalanche photodiodes

Commercial avalanche photodiodes have been operated as single-photon detectors at an optimum operating temperature and bias voltage. These detectors were found to be 1.5-3 times more sensitive than presently available photomultiplier tubes (PMTs). Both single-photon detection probability and detector noise increase with bias voltage; detection probabilities greater than twice that of a PMT were obtained with detector noise levels below 100 counts per second. Higher probabilities were measured at higher noise levels. The sources of noise and their dependence on temperature and bias voltage are discussed.

Robinson, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Cooled avalanche photodiode used for photon detection

Commercial avalanche photodiodes have been operated as single-photon detectors at an optimum operating temperature and bias voltage. These detectors were found to be 1.5 to 3 times more sensitive than presently-available photomultiplier tubes (PPMTs). Both single-photon detection probability and detector noise increase with bias voltage; detection probabilities greater than 25 percent were obtained with detector noise levels comparable to the noise of a PMT; higher probabilities were measured at higher noise levels. The sources of noise and their dependence on temperature and bias voltage are discussed.

Robinson, Deborah L.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Radar Detectability Studies of Slow and Small Zodiacal Dust Cloud Particles. III. The Role of Sodium and the Head Echo Size on the Probability of Detection

We present a path forward on a long-standing issue concerning the flux of small and slow meteoroids, which are believed to be the dominant portion of the incoming meteoric mass flux into the Earth’s atmosphere. Such a flux, which is predicted by dynamical dust models of the Zodiacal Cloud, is not evident in ground-based radar observations. For decades this was attributed to the fact that the radars used for meteor observations lack the sensitivity to detect this population, due to the small amount of ionization produced by slow-velocity meteors. Such a hypothesis has been challenged by the introduction of meteor head echo (HE) observations with High Power and Large Aperture radars, in particular the Arecibo 430 MHz radar. Janches et al. developed a probabilistic approach to estimate the detectability of meteors by these radars and initially showed that, with the current knowledge of ablation and ionization, such particles should dominate the detected rates by one to two orders of magnitude compared to the actual observations. In this paper, we include results in our model from recently published laboratory measurements, which showed that (1) the ablation of Na is less intense covering a wider altitude range; and (2) the ionization probability, β{sub ip}, for Na atoms in the air is up to two orders of magnitude smaller for low speeds than originally believed. By applying these results and using a somewhat smaller size of the HE radar target we offer a solution that reconciles these observations with model predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Divide and conquer: separating the two probabilities in seismic phase picking

There are two fundamental probabilities in the seismic phase picking process—the probability of the existence of a seismic phase (detection probability) and the probability associated with the phase arrival time estimation (timing probability). The nearly ubiquitous approach in developing deep learning phase picking models is to use a kernel, such as a truncated Gaussian, to mask the labelled phase arrival time and train a segmentation model. Once a model is trained, the times of the peaks in the output are taken as phase arrival times (picks), and the height of the peaks are taken as ‘probability’ of the picks. Here, we show that this ‘probability’ represents neither the detection nor the timing probability because this approach forces the output to follow the shape of the kernel. We introduce an approach using two models to estimate these two distinct probabilities. We use a binary classifier with a calibrated confidence to address the detection probability and a multiclass classifier to obtain a probability mass function to address the timing probability. This new approach can make the deep learning-based phase picking process more interpretable and provide options to logically control seismic monitoring workflows.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Radar Detectability Studies of Slow and Small Zodiacal Dust Cloud Particles. III. The Role of Sodium and the Head Echo Size on the Probability of Detection

We present a path forward on a long-standing issue concerning the flux of small and slow meteoroids, which are believed to be the dominant portion of the incoming meteoric mass flux into the Earth's atmosphere. Such a flux, which is predicted by dynamical dust models of the Zodiacal Cloud, is not evident in ground-based radar observations. For decades this was attributed to the fact that the radars used for meteor observations lack the sensitivity to detect this population, due to the small amount of ionization produced by slow-velocity meteors. Such a hypothesis has been challenged by the introduction of meteor head echo (HE) observations with High Power and Large Aperture radars, in particular the Arecibo 430 MHz radar. Janches et al. developed a probabilistic approach to estimate the detectability of meteors by these radars and initially showed that, with the current knowledge of ablation and ionization, such particles should dominate the detected rates by one to two orders of magnitude compared to the actual observations. In this paper, we include results in our model from recently published laboratory measurements, which showed that (1) the ablation of Na is less intense covering a wider altitude range; and (2) the ionization probability, Beta ip, for Na atoms in the air is up to two orders of magnitude smaller for low speeds than originally believed. By applying these results and using a somewhat smaller size of the HE radar target we offer a solution that reconciles these observations with model predictions.

meteorites↗

DOE OSTI2019

Risk-based monitoring designs for detecting CO 2 leakage through abandoned wellbores: An application of NRAP’s WLAT and DREAM tools

We report that one suggested approach to managing the risk of geologic CO 2 storage projects is to perform risk-based subsurface monitoring targeting early leak detection. The challenge in risk-based monitoring is that leakage impacts are expected to be small in comparison with the footprint of the stored CO 2 plume and could be at depths ranging from the depth of storage (often ~1 km bgs) up to surficial aquifers. Addressing this challenge requires a multidisciplinary effort capable of characterizing potential subsurface leakage in terms of likelihood, location, magnitude, impacts to overlying aquifers, and uncertainty as well as innovative monitoring technology design and implementation. The National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) was established to develop related risk assessment tools to provide guidance on such assessments. Here we demonstrate the application workflow of two of the NRAP computational tools, WLAT (Wellbore Leakage Analysis Tool) and DREAM (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management), to a hypothetical CO 2 storage site based on a study area in the Midwestern United States. This workflow shows how CO 2 leakage may be estimated, evaluated, and monitored in terms of risk. Results provide guidance on monitoring configurations and technologies which minimize the time to leak detection, maximize the probability detection, and provide cost considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

A dual-mode generalized likelihood ratio approach to self-reorganizing digital flight control system design

The research is reported on the problems of failure detection and reliable system design for digital aircraft control systems. Failure modes, cross detection probability, wrong time detection, application of performance tools, and the GLR computer package are discussed.

Bueno, R.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Minimum Detectable Quantity Calculation for Radiation Portal Monitors

The minimum detectable quantity of a radiation portal monitor is the smallest amount of radioactive material that can be detected passing through the monitor (with a specified detection probability). The minimum detectable quantity is a function of many factors, including isotope, velocity, distance between pillars, height of portal and vehicle, source distribution and position, background radiation, background suppression, detector volume and positions, detector efficiency, decision metrics and algorithms, the presence of NORM (naturally occurring radioactive material), and alarm thresholds. Experimentally testing a radiation portal monitor to failure for all combinations of these factors is extremely time-consuming and often cost prohibitive. This document outlines a straightforward method for quickly estimating the minimum detectable quantity for moving sources over a large variety of conditions with a minimal number of static measurements. The document also describes a proof of concept software application that the International Atomic Energy Agency has designed based on the described method that can be used by Member States to estimate a monitor’s minimum detectable quantity.

Blessinger, Christopher S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Coincidence probabilities for spacecraft gravitational wave experiments - Massive coalescing binaries

Massive coalescing binary systems are candidate sources of gravitational radiation in the millihertz frequency band accessible to spacecraft Doppler tracking experiments. This paper discusses signal processing and detection probability for waves from coalescing binaries in the regime where the signal frequency increases linearly with time, i.e., 'chirp' signals. Using known noise statistics, thresholds with given false alarm probabilities are established for one- and two-spacecraft experiments. Given the threshold, the detection probability is calculated as a function of gravitational wave amplitude for both one- and two-spacecraft experiments, assuming random polarization states and under various assumptions about wave directions. This allows quantitative statements about the detection efficiency of these experiments and the utility of coincidence experiments. In particular, coincidence probabilities for two-spacecraft experiments are insensitive to the angle between the directions to the two spacecraft, indicating that near-optical experiments can be done without constraints on spacecraft trajectories.

Tinto, Massimo↗

DOE OSTI2019

Infrared and radar fusion detection method based on heterogeneous data preprocessing

The difficulty in infrared and radar fusion target detection lies in the pre-processing steps such as sample reduction and feature reduction of heterogeneous sensors. For the problem of data volume redundancy, HVS sample reduction is proposed to reduce the amount of data in the infrared data set. Infrared and radar joint feature vectors are constructed through nearest neighbor data association. For the problem of feature redundancy, a weighted mutual information feature selection method based on prior information is proposed according to the difference of feature sources. The fusion data set is then used for classification. The experiments show that the HVS-based sample reduction and the prior weighted feature selection achieved a higher detection probability and a shorter detection time, and improved the robustness in the case of large differences between the training set and the test set.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2016

Combining Inspection and Unattended Monitoring: Statistical Analysis of Timely Detection

Process monitoring traditionally relies on facility operator measurements. New concepts for future inspection regimes include inspectorate-owned systems that enable unattended monitoring (UM) of all declared material flow \cite{smith_potential}. If such systems can be established as viable alternatives, they may provide an important new capability: a true inspector's estimate of MUF that can achieve the efficiency and effectiveness goals outlined by the IAEA. A rigorous statistical framework for comparing traditional and new methodologies is needed to evaluate this potential and enable inspectorates to optimally balance UM and sampling in the context of timely detection and cost constraints. Recognizing that these are only two among a wide range of safeguards activities that support mass balance evaluation to detect missing material, this paper compares UM to traditional safeguards sampling in terms of detection probabilities as a function of time based on simplistic material loss scenarios, and shows how the detection probabilities can be rather easily combined. Using this approach can help enable tradeoff analysis and optimal resource allocation.

international safeguards↗