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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Life Qualification of Hall Thrusters By Analysis and Test

High power Hall thrusters under development for deep space robotic and human exploration missions have demanding lifetime and operational requirements that make thruster life qualification challenging. The required burn times make it infeasible to conduct multiple tests with durations exceeding the life requirement, and complex wearout phenomena and the need for power throttling during missions complicate analyses and testing. The traditional qualification approach, a single life test that typically demonstrates 50 to 100% margin on the required lifetime, does not provide enough information to demonstrate low failure risk. It is a weak source of statistical information about the location of the peak in the failure probability distribution and provides no information on the width of the distribution. Testing does provide information that can be used to validate physics-based models of failure processes, however, and the combination can be used to assess mission risk. Validated, conservative, deterministic analysis can be used to demonstrate that most failure processes have such large margins that more detailed analysis is unnecessary. For a subset of the failure modes a more detailed probabilistic analysis is required. Pole erosion in a 12.5 kW Hall thruster is used as a detailed example of this qualification process.

Brophy, John R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

On the nature of models in remote sensing

An explicit framework can provide a better understanding of remote sensing models and their interrelationships. This framework distinguishes between the scene, which is real and exists on the ground, and the image, which is a collection of spatially arranged masurements drawn from the scene. The scene model generalizes and parameterizes the essential qualities of the scene. Scene models may be discrete, in which the scene model consists of discrete elements with boundaries, or continuous, in which matter and energy flows are taken to be continuous and there are no clear or sharp boundaries in the scene. In the discrete case, there are two possibilities for models: H- and L-resolution. In the H-resolution case, the resolution cells of the image are smaller than the elements, and thus the elements may be individually resolved. In the L-resolution case, the resolution cells are larger than the elements and cannot be resolved. Most canopy models are L-resolution, deterministic, and noninvertible in nature; image processing models, however, tend to be H-resolution, empirical, and invertible. This taxonomy helps add insight to the development of remote sensing theory and point the way to new, productive areas of research.

Strahler, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Final STS-35 Columbia descent BET products and results for LaRC OEX investigations

Final STS-35 'Columbia' descent Best Estimate Trajectory (BET) products have been developed for Langley Research Center (LaRC) Orbiter Experiments (OEX) investigations. Included are the reconstructed inertial trajectory profile; the Extended BET, which combines the inertial data and, in this instance, the National Weather Service atmospheric information obtained via Johnson Space Center; and the Aerodynamic BET. The inertial BET utilized Inertial Measurement Unit 1 (IMU1) dynamic measurements for deterministic propagation during the ENTREE estimation process. The final estimate was based on the considerable ground based C-band tracking coverage available as well as Tracking Data and Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Doppler data, a unique use of the latter for endo-atmospheric flight determinations. The actual estimate required simultaneous solutions for the spacecraft position and velocity, spacecraft attitude, and six IMU parameters - three gyro biases and three accelerometer scale factor correction terms. The anchor epoch for this analysis was 19,200 Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) seconds which corresponds to an initial Shuttle altitude of approximately 513 kft. The atmospheric data incorporated were evaluated based on Shuttle derived considerations as well as comparisons with other models. The AEROBET was developed based on the Extended BET, the measured spacecraft configuration information, final mass properties, and the final Orbiter preoperation databook. The latter was updated based on aerodynamic consensus incrementals derived by the latest published FAD. The rectified predictions were compared versus the flight computed values and the resultant differences were correlated versus ensemble results for twenty-two previous STS entry flights.

Oakes, Kevin F.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On the evaluation of expected performance cost for partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems

New methods are presented for evaluating the expected performance cost of partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems. When the variances of the process statistics are small, a linearized model of the closed-loop stochastic system is defined for which the expected cost can be evaluated by recursion on a set of purely deterministic difference equations. When the variances of the process statistics are large, the linearized model can be used in the control variate method of variance reduction for reducing the number of sample paths required for effective Monte Carlo estimation.

Bayard, D. S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
NASA NTRS2009

Introduction of Virtualization Technology to Multi-Process Model Checking

Model checkers find failures in software by exploring every possible execution schedule. Java PathFinder (JPF), a Java model checker, has been extended recently to cover networked applications by caching data transferred in a communication channel. A target process is executed by JPF, whereas its peer process runs on a regular virtual machine outside. However, non-deterministic target programs may produce different output data in each schedule, causing the cache to restart the peer process to handle the different set of data. Virtualization tools could help us restore previous states of peers, eliminating peer restart. This paper proposes the application of virtualization technology to networked model checking, concentrating on JPF.

Leungwattanakit, Watcharin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Zero Power Reactor Database (ZPRD) Development Plan

Past sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFR) were built with an active experimental program in place to support the design and development work. Most of the experimental facilities in the United States that were important for SFR design were shutdown in the 1980s and 1990s. Reactor licensing and construction requires any reactor design to be verified against existing reactor facilities or experimental measurements. With the absence of those experimental facilities, modern SFR projects must rely on historical measurements to demonstrate that the engineering modeling software and data being used for the new reactor design work are reliable. There has been a considerable push in the last 6 years by both DOE and commercial companies to obtain historical experimental measurements that are relevant for SFRs, in particular those with features that are important for the new reactor designs of interest. The zero power reactor experiments carried out at Argonne National Laboratory’s critical facilities (ZPR-3, ZPR-6, ZPR-9, and ZPPR) from the 1950s to the 1980s are some of the best reactor physics experiments on SFR technology that are available today. Of particular interest today are the ZPPR-15 measurements done at the ZPPR facility for the Integral Fast Reactor project in the 1980s as they are in line with most commercial and DOE interests today. In the past 10 years, the measurements done on ZPPR-15 have been processed into both Monte Carlo (MCNP) and deterministic models (MC2-3 and DIF3D) useable for validating the engineering modeling software for key parts of the SFR design work. To achieve this, a detailed model description must be created for the experiment and the experimental measurement that the engineering modeling software is to reproduce. Then, an assessment of the uncertainty on the measured quantity which considers all of the sources of uncertainty in defining the model must be obtained and documented. The models created for ZPPR-15 provide the best validation basis available today for neutronics modeling software. Reference 2 is a good resource to understand how these models were built and how the uncertainties on the measured quantities were derived. The intention of the Zero Power Reactor Database (ZPRD), hosted at frdb.ne.anl.gov, is to make available the experimental measurements and models that have been constructed to-date. Though ZPPR-15 measurements are the primary data requested for validation needs, other measurements on ZPPR, ZPR-6, and ZPR-9 in support of the Clinch River Breeder Reactor (CRBR) and Fast Test Reactor (FFTF) should also be considered important for future software validation needs. In this manuscript, the details of available measurements on ZPR-3, ZPR-6, ZPR-9, and ZPPR facilities are summarized, and a general organization of the web interface is displayed. Many of the documents associated with the measurements are export controlled information so access to the database will also have to be controlled.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Experience gained from computer processing of physical experimental data during the restoration of measured values

The processing stage in which the restored values of the physical parameters are received is described. The following main steps are discussed: estimation of the state of the telemetry data, processing of the calibration data, and determination of the errors in the data; data decommutation and analysis of the structure of measurement cycles for each instrument; decoding, estimates of the reliability of the restored data, and their agreement with the models adopted for the measurement process; and analysis of errors due to deterministic and random factors. A block diagram of the method is presented.

Mamotko, Z. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Deterministic Polishing of Replicating Grazing-Incidence Mandrels

In an effort to manufacture high-angular-resolution, grazing-incidence, x-ray optics, Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) is taking measures to improve its electroformed replicated optics. A key development is the use of computer-numerical control (CNC) polishing to deterministically improve the surface of electroless nickel mandrels used to replicate grazing- incidence optics. Metrology, control software and polishing parameters must function together seamlessly to reach the specifications required to replicate sub-arcsecond optics. Each change in polishing parameters effects the wear pattern of the polishing head. Using Richardson-Lucy deconvolution, the controller software fits the wear pattern to metrology data to calculate the changing feedrates across the mandrel. Here we present an overview of our process, and early results showing the effectiveness of deterministic polishing for replicated optics.

Davis, Jacqueline↗
DOE OSTI2024

Progressive Hedging Decomposition for Solutions of Large-Scale Process Family Design Problems

In previous work, we have introduced a mathematical model for solving a discretized version of the process family design problem. This involves two sets of decision variables. One set selects which unit module designs are included in the process platform out of a candidate set of options; the other set determines which of these unit module designs are assigned to each variant. In this work, we exploit a parallelized Progressive Hedging (PH) algorithm to solve even larger scale design problems. PH is a well-known algorithm traditionally used to solve stochastic programming problems. While our problem is not a two-stage stochastic programming problem, the structure is similar, and it can be directly mapped to the PH approach, which we employ here to solve this deterministic optimization problem. We decompose our problem by process variant. We treat the platform unit module design variables as first-stage and the assignment of unit module designs to variants as second-stage, solving the problem using mpi-sppy. We demonstrate this approach on case studies of CC, water desalination, and refrigeration.

Stinchfield, Georgia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗
NASA NTRS1972

An input adaptive, pursuit tracking model of the human opertor

Developed and evaluated is a simple model of the input adaptive behavior of the human operator (HO) in a pursuit tracking task in which the plant controlled consists of a pure gain. If it is assumed that the HO is approximately an optimal predictor using only position and velocity information, then there is a simple method of computing the values of the model parameters in terms of the autocorrelation function of the input signal. Experimental evidence indicates that the ability of the HO to use velocity information decreases with increasing signal velocity indicating that a biased estimator of the velocity weighting should be used. A suitable approximation is derived which has rapid convergence and low variance. The model thus derived is compared to actual subject transfer functions and is found to be in close agreement. In addition to tracking random processes the model can adapt to and track deterministic signals, such as sine waves, up to approximately the frequency at which human operators begin to track precognitively.

Ware, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Automated Impact Assessment: A New Approach to ISS Payload Operations Anomaly Response

The International Space Station (ISS) Payload Operations and Integration Center (POIC) is undergoing rapid growth as the space station program focuses on science and commercial activities. The ISS is expanding its onboard capabilities to support additional science activities. In parallel, the POIC is expanding the capabilities of our operations tools to support the higher pace of payload activities being executed each week. An effect of these changes is that anomaly resolution has become more challenging. In the event of a real-time system fault, operators are responsible for analyzing telemetry displays, anomaly monitoring tools, documentation, and system models in order to produce failure impacts and recovery strategies. This approach to operations relies on the operator to ingest, process, and analyze information from an array of deterministic sources to provide actionable data on impacted systems and activities. Changing the existing approach of anomaly response is necessary if the ISS community is to succeed in the age of science and commercialization of space. The creation of a tool that captures deterministic technical systems knowledge and integrates existing telemetry, documentation, and planning information will allow the burden of impact assessment to be automated, thereby allowing the operator to focus on non-deterministic tasks, such as recovering failed systems and restoring critical payload operations.

Hall, R. Mason↗
NASA NTRS1991

Markov reward processes

Numerous applications in the area of computer system analysis can be effectively studied with Markov reward models. These models describe the behavior of the system with a continuous-time Markov chain, where a reward rate is associated with each state. In a reliability/availability model, upstates may have reward rate 1 and down states may have reward rate zero associated with them. In a queueing model, the number of jobs of certain type in a given state may be the reward rate attached to that state. In a combined model of performance and reliability, the reward rate of a state may be the computational capacity, or a related performance measure. Expected steady-state reward rate and expected instantaneous reward rate are clearly useful measures of the Markov reward model. More generally, the distribution of accumulated reward or time-averaged reward over a finite time interval may be determined from the solution of the Markov reward model. This information is of great practical significance in situations where the workload can be well characterized (deterministically, or by continuous functions e.g., distributions). The design process in the development of a computer system is an expensive and long term endeavor. For aerospace applications the reliability of the computer system is essential, as is the ability to complete critical workloads in a well defined real time interval. Consequently, effective modeling of such systems must take into account both performance and reliability. This fact motivates our use of Markov reward models to aid in the development and evaluation of fault tolerant computer systems.

Smith, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Probabilistic design applications for the Space Transportation Main Engines

All of the current rocket engine designs are based on deterministic design analysis methods. The most recently designed engine, Space Shuttle Main Engines (SSME), was designed and developed using these techniques in the 1970's and 80's. The Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) design objective is to use a robust design methodology and to pro-actively assess and improve the design during the design process. The design approach is a combination of the traditional deterministic methodologies and recently developed probabilistic methodologies. The designer must use a more rigorous structural criteria, conduct pro-active reliability assessments (reliability allocations, failure modes and effects analysis, reliability growth studies, and design reliability assessment), use a damage tolerant design philosophy and perform probabilistic analyses. Rigorous application of this structured methodology will develop a better engine product.

Ohara, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recovery of Oxpure 612C-50 Coconut Carbon Particles Using Bump Arrays

Cyanide is used to leach gold from crushed ore (solid matrix) into a gold cyanide solution. The gold is extracted from the cyanide solution by adsorption onto activated carbon. The gold extraction process occurs when the activated coconut carbon is placed into tanks that contain the gold cyanide solution either in a batch process or into a continuous flow circuit. The coconut carbon is then removed from the solution for gold recovery. The use of the mesofluidic separation system (a deterministic lateral displacement system) can significantly reduce costs and waste generated from the process of removing the coconut carbon from the solution. In the coconut carbon recovery process used at many gold mines in Nevada, the gold is attached to carbon particles that are still in the cyanide liquor. The mesofluidic system can rapidly remove the gold bearing carbon particles from the cyanide liquor quickly and with no operating costs. The benefits include: • Reduce operational costs related to filtration and hydro-cyclones • Reduced acid usage for the elution gold stripping phase as only 25% of the fluids will follow the carbon particles to the final express lane when two mesofluidic systems are used in series This alternative particle removal techniques would be advantageous. A promising technique for removing larger particles from slurries is mesofluidic separation, similar to deterministic lateral displacement arrays or “bump” arrays [1] but operates at much larger flow rates. As described by Pease, et al. [2], “Bump arrays in deterministic lateral displacement devices separate large particles from small particles using arrays of staggered posts. Large particles, defined as those with radii larger than the distance between the edge of a post and the stagnation streamline from the next downstream post, must bump toward one side of the device, whereas particles smaller than this distance slalom from entrance to exit without net lateral displacement.” Unlike filters or sieves, the posts in the arrays that cause separation do not block or occlude particle flow but work because particles go around the posts. Unlike hydrocyclones separation, separation is not driven by particle density, because gravitational forces are unimportant to mesofluidic separation. Burns, et al., and Pease, et al., have shown that particles may be separated from complex suspensions, under turbulent flow conditions, and at industrially important flow rates [3-5]. They have also recently shown that mesofluidic devices may be arranged in series to increase separation performance [6]. In this paper, we evaluate the mesofluidic system for the separation of commercial OxPure GR 612 Charred Coconut shell particles as a proof of principle test for the rapid separation using the 1500 micron cut mesofluidic separator. We first describe the experimental system and conditions. We then present the experimental results. [1] Huang, L.R., E.C. Cox, R.H. Austin, J.C. Sturm. 2004. Continuous particle separation through deterministic lateral displacement. Science, 304, 987–990. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1094567. [2] Pease L.F., J.A. Bamberger, C.A. Burns, and M.J. Minette. 2021. Large Particle Separation from Non-Newtonian Slurries using Bump Arrays. In Proceedings of the ASME 2021 Fluids Engineering Division Summer Meeting FEDSM2021-65904, V003T08A023. New York, New York: ASME. doi:10.1115/FEDSM2021-65904 [3] Burns C.A., T.G. Veldman, J. Serkowski, R.C. Daniel, X.-Y. Yu, M.J. Minette, L.F. Pease. 2021. Mesofluidic separation versus dead-end filtration. Separation and Purification Technology, 254, 117256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seppur.2020.117256. [4] Pease L.F., J.E. Serkowski, T.G. Veldman, J. Williams, X.-Y. Yu, M.J. Minette, J.A. Bamberger, C.A. Burns. 2021. Can Bump Arrays Separate Particles from Turbulent Flows?. In Proceedings of the ASME 2021 Fluids Engineering Division Summer Meeting FEDSM2021-67696, V003T08A024. New York, New York: ASME. doi:10.11

mesofluidic separation, slurry, bump array↗