Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “disruption prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Real-time biomass feedstock particle quality detection using image analysis and machine vision

Abstract A common and costly challenge in the nascent biorefinery industry is the consistent handling and conveyance of biomass feedstock materials, which can vary widely in their chemical, physical, and mechanical properties. Solutions to cope with varying feedstock qualities will be required, including advanced process controls to adjust equipment and reject feedstocks that do not meet a quality standard. In this work, we present and evaluate methods to autonomously assess corn stover feedstock quality in real time and provide data to process controls with low-cost camera hardware. We explore the use of neural networks to classify feedstocks based on actual processing behavior and pixel matrix feature parameterization to further assess particle attributes that may explain the variable processing behavior. We used the pretrained ResNet neural network coupled with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) time-series classifier trained on our image data, resulting in binary classification of feedstock anomalies with favorable performance. The textural aspects of the image data were statistically analyzed to determine if the textural features were predictive of operational disruptions. The significant textural features were angular second moment, prominence, mean height of surface profile, mean resultant vector, shade, skewness, variation of the polar facet orientation, and direction of azimuthal facets. Expansion of these models is recommended across a wider variety of labeled feedstock images of different qualities and species to develop a more robust tool that may be deployed using low-cost cameras within biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Design of the Electromagnetic Particle Injector (EPI) for Tokamak Deployment

Both predicting and controlling disruptions are critical and urgent issues for ITER as some disruptions with a short warning time may be unavoidable. For these cases, a rapid response disruption mitigation system (DMS) referred to as the electromagnetic particle injector (EPI) is being developed. The primary advantages of the EPI are its fast response time and high velocity, which have been demonstrated in offline experiments (Raman et al., 2021). The EPI is capable of accelerating a metallic sabot electromagnetically using a rail gun to the required velocities ( > 2 km/s) within 2 ms. Two high-field racetrack magnets able to generate fields over 2 T are positioned above and below the rails to permit high velocity at low rail currents, a requirement to minimize electrode erosion. At the end of the acceleration phase, a sabot capture mechanism retains the spent sabot inside the vacuum chamber that houses the EPI. At this point, it releases well-defined microspheres, or a shell pellet, of a radiative payload into the disrupting plasma. A remotely operated sabot loading system positioned behind the injector contains several pre-equipped sabots that can be loaded by an operator from the tokamak control room. The injector is interfaced to the tokamak through a guide tube attached to the front of the EPI vacuum chamber. Finally, the advantages of the EPI system over other DMSs under consideration are described in conjunction with the details of an EPI system designed for near-term test on an existing large tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Noise and sleep - A literature review and a proposed criterion for assessing effect

Results of a number of studies on the effects of various types of noise on the sleep of subjects of both sexes and a wide range of age groups are reviewed to develop a tentative criterion for assessing these effects. Available data suggest that reasonably accurate predictions of sleep disruption may be made if the interfering noise is specified in units (EPNdB or EdBA) which account for its spectral characteristics and duration. When EPNdB units are used as the measure of noise intensity, the correlation coefficient between intensity and the probability of no sleep disturbance is -0.86. Because of the paucity of data on the long-term results of frequent behavioral wakings or arousals, it is suggested that disturbance of sleep be defined as an electroencephalographic change of one or more sleep stages.

Lukas, J. S.↗

Brick Schema Standardized Plug Load Control Strategies for Load Reduction: Preprint

Plug loads comprise a significant percentage of commercial building energy consumption. Applying intelligent controls to turn off plug loads when unused can provide dynamic load reduction and flexibility, which are key traits of grid-interactive efficient buildings. This capability is important for equitable decarbonization as it can enable disadvantaged communities to electrify buildings without costly upgrades to electrical infrastructure. In this work, we present the effectiveness of various control strategies along with the operational lessons that informed their design. During a three-year period, we operated over 600 smart outlets in 12 university office buildings. The attached plug loads consisted primarily of printers, TVs, water dispensers, and copiers. After recording baseline power measurements for one year, we designed plug load control (PLC) strategies for each plug load type, use, and for different risk tolerance levels because PLC can potentially be disruptive to daily work. We used the Brick Schema to facilitate the management of plug load locations and other metadata. For advanced controls, we integrated the smart plugs with heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems through the campus building automation system. We found static schedules to be the least disruptive and most predictable for occupants, resulting in 38% and 66% energy savings in two studies. For printers, print server-triggered PLC produced 86% savings, the highest of all strategies with minimal occupant impact. Scheduling of water dispensers and digital signage TVs produced 49% and 70% savings respectively with opportunities to improve performance with the use of HVAC occupancy data.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Tidal Disruptions of Main-sequence Stars. IV. Relativistic Effects and Dependence on Black Hole Mass

Using a suite of fully relativistic hydrodynamic simulations applied to main-sequence stars with realistic internal density profiles, we examine full and partial tidal disruptions across a wide range of black hole mass( MM105 105BH7)and stellar mass (MM0.33) as larger MBH leads to stronger relativistic effects. For fixed Må, as MBH increases, the ratio of the maximum pericenter distance yielding full disruptions (t) to its Newtonian prediction rises rapidly, becoming triple the Newtonian value for= ́MM510BH7, while the ratio of the energy width of the stellar debris for full disruptions to the Newtonian prediction decreases steeply, resulting in a factor of 2 correction at= ́MM510BH7. We provide approximate formulae that express the relativistic corrections of both t and the energy width relative to their Newtonian approximate estimates. For partial disruptions, we find that the fractional remnant mass for a given ratio of the pericenter to t is higher for larger MBH. These results have several implications. As MBH increases above~M107, the cross section for complete disruptions is suppressed by competition with direct capture. However, the cross-section ratio for partial to complete disruptions depends only weakly on MBH. The relativistic correction to the debris energy width delays the time of peak mass-return rate and diminishes the magnitude of the peak return rate. ForMM10BH7, the MBH-dependence of the full disruption cross section and the peak mass-return rate and time is influenced more by relativistic effects than by Newtonian dynamics.

Taeho Ryu↗

A Sequential Model Predictive and Deep Reinforcement Learning-Based Controller for Distribution System Outage Mitigation under Hurricane Events

This paper proposes a proactive outage mitigation framework for power distribution networks to withstand hurricane-induced disruptions. It leverages Model Predictive Control (MPC) to identify safe lines for proactive switching during hurricanes, minimizing the risk of cascading failures and voltage violations. The switching strategies optimized by MPC are sequentially integrated with a Deep Reinforcement Learning agent using the Advantage Actor-Critic algorithm, enabling dynamic line switching to maximize connected buses and minimize voltage violations in real time. Using a probabilistic hurricane model, the framework predicts line failures and adapts to varying conditions to enhance grid resilience. Simulations on the IEEE 123-bus system demonstrate its effectiveness in maintaining high connectivity and minimizing disruptions. Real-time testing with an RTDS confirms the practicality and reliability of the proposed approach.

Selim, Alaa [University of Connecticut]↗

Advanced Materials & Manufacturing Technology (AMMT): Development of Additive Manufacturing Agnostic Process Parameter Procedure, 316H Stainless Steel Readiness Level Data Sets, and Machine Maintenance Plan

The University of California, Davis is involved in a project to deploy and enhance an artificial intelligence (AI) system for predicting and preventing plasma disruptions on the DIII D tokamak, under the funding from Department of Energy DE-SC0023500 (title: AI/Deep Learning FRNN Software for Prediction & Real-Time Control of DIII-D Plasma Control System (PCS)). The overarching goal is to demonstrate that real-time, AI-guided intervention can proactively modify the plasma state to avoid or mitigate disruptions—a critical challenge for the future of fusion energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Black hole-neutron star binaries near neutron star disruption limit in the mass regime of event GW230529

In May 2023, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) Collaboration reported the likely black hole-neutron star (BHNS) merger GW230529_181500. The signal was observed with high significance in only one detector, limiting constraints on the black hole spin and motivating our study of disruption in this mass regime. That event is expected to be the merger of a 2.5–4.5 M ⊙ primary with a secondary compact object of mass between 1.2–2.0 M ⊙ . This makes it the first BHNS merger with a significant potential for the production of electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, and provides further evidence for compact objects existing within the suspected lower mass gap. To produce post-merger EM transients, the component of the black hole spin aligned with the orbital angular momentum must be sufficiently high, allowing the neutron star to be tidally disrupted. The disrupting BHNS binary may then eject a few percent of a solar mass of matter, leading to an observable kilonova driven by radioactive decays in ejecta, and/or a compact-binary gamma-ray burst (cbGRB) resulting from the formation of an accretion disk and relativistic jet. Determining which mergers lead to disruption of the neutron star is necessary to predict the prevalence of EM signals from BHNS mergers, yet most BHNS simulations so far have been performed far from the minimum spin required for tidal disruption. Here, we use the Spectral Einstein Code to explore the behavior of BHNS mergers in a mass range consistent with GW230529_181500 close to that critical spin, and compare our results against the mass remnant model currently used by the LVK Collaboration to predict the probability of tidal disruption. Furthermore, our numerical results reveal the emergence of non-zero accretion disks even below the predicted NS disruption limit, of low mass but capable of powering cbGRBs. Our results also demonstrate that the remnant mass model underpredicts the disk mass for the DD2 equation of state, while they are within expected modeling errors for SFHo. The disruption limit itself, however, is not found to significantly differ from the predictions of the analytical model, unless remnant masses M rem ≲ 0.001 M ⊙ prove interesting observationally. In all of our simulations, any kilonova signal would be dim and most likely dominated by post-merger disk outflows.

GW230529_181500↗

Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming

Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially during “windows of opportunity” when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by characteristic weather patterns. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, are one such event. They often precede warm temperatures in Northern Canada and cold, stormy weather throughout Europe and the United States - including the most recent SSW on January 5th, 2021. Here we assess the drivers of surface weather in the weeks following the SSW through initial condition “scrambling” experiments using the real-time CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework. We find that the SSW itself had a limited impact, and that stratospheric polar vortex stretching and wave reflection had no discernible contribution to the record cold in North America in February. Instead, the tropospheric circulation and bidirectional coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere were dominant contributors to variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of carbon pellets disruption mitigation in an NSTX-U plasma

Single carbon pellet disruption mitigation simulations using M3D-C1 were conducted for an NSTX-U-like plasma to support the electromagnetic pellet injection concept (EPI). A carbon ablation model has been implemented in M3D-C1 and tested with available data. 2D simulations were conducted in order to estimate the amount of carbon needed to quench the plasma, finding that the content in a 1 mm radius vitreous carbon pellet (~3.2x10E20 atoms) would be enough if it is entirely ablated. 3D simulations were performed, scanning over pellet velocity and parallel thermal conductivity, as well as different injection directions and pellet concepts (solid pellets and shell pellets). The sensitivity of the thermal quench and other related quantities to these parameters has been evaluated. A 1 mm radius solid pellet only partially ablates at velocities of 300 m/s or higher, thus being unable to fully quench the plasma. To further enhance the ablation, approximations to an array of pellets and the shell pellet concept were also explored. 3D field line stochastization plays an important role in both quenching the center of the plasma and in heat flux losses, thus lowering the amount of carbon needed to mitigate the plasma when compared to the 2D case. This study constitutes an important step forward in `predict-first' simulations for disruption mitigation in NSTX-U and other devices, such as ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Identification of novel small molecule inhibitors of twin arginine translocation (Tat) pathway and their effect on the control of Campylobacter jejuni in chickens

Introduction Control ofCampylobacterfrom farm to fork is challenging due to the frequent emergence of antimicrobial-resistant isolates. Furthermore, poultry production systems are known reservoirs ofCampylobacter. The twin-arginine translocation (Tat) pathway is a crucial bacterial secretion system that allowsCampylobacterto colonize the host intestinal tract by using formate as the main source of energy. However, Tat pathway is also a major contributing factor for resistance to copper sulfate (CuSO 4 ). Methods Since mammals and chickens do not have proteins or receptors that are homologous to bacterial Tat proteins, identification of small molecule (SM) inhibitors targeting the Tat system would allow the development of safe and effective control methods to mitigateCampylobacterin infected or colonized hosts in both pre-harvest and post-harvest. In this study, we screened 11 commercial libraries (n = 50,917 SM) for increased susceptibility to CuSO 4 (1 mM) inC. jejuni81–176, a human isolate which is widely studied. Results Furthermore, we evaluated 177 SM hits (2.5 μg/mL and above) that increased the susceptibility to CuSO 4 for the inhibition of formate dehydrogenase (Fdh) activity, a Tat-dependent substrate. Eight Tat-dependent inhibitors (T1–T8) were selected for further studies. These selected eight Tat inhibitors cleared all testedCampylobacterstrains (n = 12) at >10 ng/mL in the presence of 0.5 mM CuSO 4 in vitro. These selected SMs were non-toxic to colon epithelial (Caco-2) cells when treated with 50 μg/mL for 24 h and completely cleared intracellularC. jejunicells when treated with 0.63 μg/mL of SM for 24 h in the presence of 0.5 mM of CuSO 4 . Furthermore, 3 and 5-week-old chicks treated with SM candidates for 5 days had significantly decreased cecal colonization (up to 1.2 log;p < 0.01) with minimal disruption of microbiota.In silicoanalyses predicted that T7 has better drug-like properties than T2 inhibitor and might target a key amino acid residue (glutamine 165), which is located in the hydrophobic core of TatC protein. Discussion Thus, we have identified novel SM inhibitors of the Tat pathway, which represent a potential strategy to controlC. jejunispread on farms.

Microbiology↗

Disruption of Dark Matter Minihalos in the Milky Way Environment: Implications for Axion Miniclusters and Early Matter Domination

Many theories of dark matter beyond the weakly interacting massive particles paradigm feature an enhanced matter power spectrum on subparsec scales, leading to the formation of dense dark matter minihalos. Future local observations are promising to search for and constrain such substructures. The survival probability of these dense minihalos in the Milky Way environment is crucial for interpreting local observations. In this work, we investigate two environmental effects: stellar disruption and (smooth) tidal disruption. These two mechanisms are studied using semianalytic models and idealized N-body simulations. For stellar disruption, we perform a series of N-body simulations of isolated minihalo–star encounters to test and calibrate analytic models of stellar encounters before applying the model to the realistic Milky Way disk environment. For tidal disruption, we perform N-body simulations to confirm the effectiveness of the analytic treatment. Finally, we propose a framework to combine the hierarchical assembly and infall of minihalos to the Milky Way with the late-time disruption mechanisms. We make predictions for the mass functions of minihalos in the Milky Way. The mass survival fraction (at M$_{mh}$ ≥ 10$^{−12}$M$_{⊙}$) of dense dark matter minihalos, e.g., for axion miniclusters and minihalos from early matter domination, is ∼60% with the relatively low-mass, compact population surviving. The survival fraction is insensitive to the detailed model parameters. We discuss various implications of the framework and future direct detection prospects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics - The Middle America Trench

The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.

Ward, Steven N.↗

Multimodal Prediction of Tearing Instabilities in a Tokamak

Tokamak is a torus-shaped nuclear fusion device that uses magnetic fields to confine fusion fuel in the form of plasma. Tearing instability in plasma is a major issue in which the magnetic field breaks and recombines in tokamak. Here, this instability can lead to plasma disruption that terminates the fusion power generation and damages the plasma-facing wall materials. For a successful steady operation of a large-scale tokamak without disruption, it is required to predict and alarm the tearing instabilities well in advance to avoid them. In this work, we develop and validate a deep neural network-based multimodal prediction system that estimates the future tearing instability likelihood from multi-diagnostics signals in the DIII-D tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Radio jet propagation and wide-angle tailed radio sources in merging galaxy cluster environments

The intracluster medium (ICM) within merging clusters of galaxies is likely to be in a violent or turbulent dynamical state which may have a significant effect on the evolution of cluster radio sources. We present results from a recent gas + N-body simulation of a cluster merger, suggesting that mergers can result in long-lived, supersonic bulk flows, as well as shocks, within a few hundred kiloparsecs of the core of the dominant cluster. These results have motivated our new two-dimensional and three-dimensional simulations of jet propagation in such environments. The first set of simulations models the ISM/ICM transition as a contact discontinuity with a strong velocity shear. A supersonic (M(sub j) = 6) jet crossing this discontinuity into an ICM with a transverse, supersonic wind bends continuously, becomes 'naked' on the upwind side, and forms a distended cocoon on the downwind side. In the case of a mildly supersonic jet (M(sub j) = 3), however, a shock is driven into the ISM and ISM material is pulled along with the jet into the ICM. Instabilities excited at the ISM/ICM interface result in the jet repeatedly pinching off and reestablishing itself in a series of 'disconnection events.' The second set of simulations deals with a jet encountering a shock in the merging cluster environment. A series of relatively high-resolution two-dimensional calculations is used to confirm earlier analysis predicting that the jet will not disrupt when the jet Mach number is greater than the shock Mach number. A jet which survives the encounter with the shock will decrease in radius and disrupt shortly thereafter as a result of the growth of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities. We also find, in disagreement with predictions, that the jet flaring angle decreases with increasing jet density. Finally, a three-dimensional simulation of a jet crossing an oblique shock gives rise to a morphology which resembles a wide-angle tailed radio source with the jet flaring at the shock and disrupting to form a long, turbulent tail which is dragged downstream by the preshock wind.

Loken, Chris↗

NSTX-U research advancing the physics of spherical tokamaks

Abstract The objectives of NSTX-U research are to reinforce the advantages of STs while addressing the challenges. To extend confinement physics of low- A , high beta plasmas to lower collisionality levels, understanding of the transport mechanisms that set confinement performance and pedestal profiles is being advanced through gyrokinetic simulations, reduced model development, and comparison to NSTX experiment, as well as improved simulation of RF heating. To develop stable non-inductive scenarios needed for steady-state operation, various performance-limiting modes of instability were studied, including MHD, tearing modes, and energetic particle instabilities. Predictive tools were developed, covering disruptions, runaway electrons, equilibrium reconstruction, and control tools. To develop power and particle handling techniques to optimize plasma exhaust in high performance scenarios, innovative lithium-based solutions are being developed to handle the very high heat flux levels that the increased heating power and compact geometry of NSTX-U will produce, and will be seen in future STs. Predictive capabilities accounting for plasma phenomena, like edge harmonic oscillations, ELMs, and blobs, are being tested and improved. In these ways, NSTX-U researchers are advancing the physics understanding of ST plasmas to maximize the benefit that will be gained from further NSTX-U experiments and to increase confidence in projections to future devices.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Adaptive Cognitive Mechanisms to Maintain Calibrated Trust and Reliance in Automation

Trust calibration for a human–machine team is the process by which a human adjusts their expectations of the automation’s reliability and trustworthiness; adaptive support for trust calibration is needed to engender appropriate reliance on automation. Herein, we leverage an instance-based learning ACT-R cognitive model of decisions to obtain and rely on an automated assistant for visual search in a UAV interface. This cognitive model matches well with the human predictive power statistics measuring reliance decisions; we obtain from the model an internal estimate of automation reliability that mirrors human subjective ratings. The model is able to predict the effect of various potential disruptions, such as environmental changes or particular classes of adversarial intrusions on human trust in automation. Finally, we consider the use of model predictions to improve automation transparency that account for human cognitive biases in order to optimize the bidirectional interaction between human and machine through supporting trust calibration. The implications of our findings for the design of reliable and trustworthy automation are discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tokamak edge localized mode onset prediction with deep neural network and pedestal turbulence

Abstract A neural network, BES-ELMnet, predicting a quasi-periodic disruptive eruption of the plasma energy and particles known as edge localized mode (ELM) onset is developed with observed pedestal turbulence from the beam emission spectroscopy system in DIII-D. BES-ELMnet has convolutional and fully-connected layers, taking two-dimensional plasma fluctuations with a temporal window of size 128 µ s and generating a scalar output which can be interpreted as a probability of the upcoming ELM onset. As approximately labeled inter-ELM broadband ( 15 kHz ⩽ f ⩽ 150 kHz ) fluctuations are given to the network, BES-ELMnet learns by itself ELM-related precursors arising before the onsets through supervised learning scheme. BES-ELMnet achieves the gradually increasing ELM onset probabilities between two consecutive ELMs during the inter-ELM phases and can forecast the first ELM onsets which occur after the high confinement mode transition. We further investigate the network generality in terms of the selected frequency band to ensure the use of BES-ELMnet for various operation regimes without changing the trained architecture. Therefore, our novel prediction method will enhance a proactive high confinement mode control of fusion-grade plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗