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At least 73 records · Page 4

Thermal and chemical convection in planetary mantles

Melting of the upper mantle and extraction of melt result in the formation of a less dense depleted mantle. This paper describes series of two-dimensional models that investigate the effects of chemical buoyancy induced by these density variations. A tracer particles method has been set up to follow as closely as possible the chemical state of the mantle and to model the chemical buoyant force at each grid point. Each series of models provides the evolution with time of magma production, crustal thickness, surface heat flux, and thermal and chemical state of the mantle. First, models that do not take into account the displacement of plates at the surface of Earth demonstrate that chemical buoyancy has an important effect on the geometry of convection. Then models include horizontal motion of plates 5000 km wide. Recycling of crust is taken into account. For a sufficiently high plate velocity which depends on the thermal Rayleigh number, the cell's size is strongly coupled with the plate's size. Plate motion forces chemically buoyant material to sink into the mantle. Then the positive chemical buoyancy yields upwelling as depleted mantle reaches the interface between the upper and the lower mantle. This process is very efficient in mixing the depleted and undepleted mantle at the scale of the grid spacing since these zones of upwelling disrupt the large convective flow. At low spreading rates, zones of upwelling develop quickly, melting occurs, and the model predicts intraplate volcanism by melting of subducted crust. At fast spreading rates, depleted mantle also favors the formation of these zones of upwelling, but they are not strong enough to yield partial melting. Their rapid displacement toward the ridge contributes to faster large-scale homogenization.

Dupeyrat, L.↗

Preliminary Investigation of Impact of Technological Impairment on Trajectory-Based Operations

The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) incorporates collaborative air traffic management and Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO) in order to significantly increase the capacity, efficiency, and predictability of operations in the National Airspace System (NAS), without decreasing safety. This is enabled by airspace users and service providers sharing knowledge about operations that allows prediction of the complete 4D flight trajectory with as little uncertainty as possible. Additionally, new software and hardware technology is critical to reaching NextGen goals, especially with regard to TBO. What if the technologies that are critical for TBO were to be impaired or fail completely? Should there be a malfunction of a piece of the technology, it must be ensured that the whole system does not break down completely or suffer severe impairment. Instead, operations need to be maintained proportionally to the problem and safety needs to be ensured (graceful degradation). This paper proposes a systematic framework to investigate the vulnerability of TBO to technology disruption, and determine the impact of technological impairment on TBO. Two representative technologies are chosen for detailed investigation and the impact of their impairment on the degradation of TBO is illustrated using a weather-related scenario. XXXX There are several possible directions of future work. We believe it is desirable to develop methods to quantitatively assess the impact of technological disruption on TBO and to have the simulation tools to validate the impact. The availability of prognostics and health management methods could be leveraged to predict technological failure/disruption, thus predicting how TBO will be a ected, and possibly pro-actively mitigating the impact. It is important to develop large-scale scenarios where the e ect of technological impairment is prominent, and identify methods to quantitatively assess the extent of TBO degradation. An important goal of such an investigation is the development of failure-resistant resilient trajectory-based oper- ations. Resilience14, 15 is the property of a system to \bounce back" and resume at least a signi cant portion of its functionalities after degradation due to technological impairment(s). A systems resilience includes properties such as \bu ering capacity" (quantifying disruptions the system can absorb or adapt to without a fundamental breakdown in performance or in the systems structure), \ exibility" (ability to restructure itself in response to external changes or pressures), "margin" (how closely the system is currently operating rela- tive to one or another kind of performance boundary), \tolerance" (whether the system gracefully degrades as stress/pressure increase, or collapses quickly when pressure exceeds adaptive capacity), etc. Future work needs to focus on quantifying and improving the resilience of TBO, and identifying resilient design solutions for aviation.

TBO↗

Thermal limit for spherical accretion and X-ray bursts

A mechanism is described whereby the rate of spherical accretion on a collapsed object and the resulting X-ray luminosity can be limited by thermal heating and evaporation of the accreting gas. The luminosity limit can be a factor of the order of 100 below the corresponding Eddington limit. Steady accretion flow is not possible within a range above this limit, and X-ray bursts can be produced by accretion surges resulting from the cooling and collapse of a heated gas shell above a critical optical depth. The luminosity and approximate recurrence rate of the bursts from NGC 6624 and other burst sources may then be understood. A general model for bursters is proposed in which massive (about 10 to 100 solar masses) black holes, from massive stars and the cores of disrupted globular clusters, undergo supercritical spherical accretion in interstellar clouds. Both X-ray and gamma-ray bursts are predicted to have similar hard X-ray (about 200 keV) spectra, though high average accretion rates and central optical depths also yield a comparable luminosity at around 5 keV from a Comptonized blackbody spectrum in the X-ray bursts and associated steady sources.

Grindlay, J. E.↗

Collisional history of asteroids - Evidence from Vesta and the Hirayama families

Numerical simulations of the collisional evolution of hypothetical initial asteroid populations have been run which are subject to three constraints: they must evolve to the current asteroid size distribution, preserve Vesta's basaltic crust, and produce at least the observed number of major Hirayama families. A 'runaway growth' initial asteroid population distribution is found to best satisfy these constraints, and a model is developed for the calculation of fragment size distribution in the disruption of large, gravitationally bound bodies in which the material strength is enhanced by hydrostatic self-compression. This model predicts that large asteroids behave as intrinsically strong bodies despite histories of collisional fracture.

Davis, D. R.↗

Local and global effects of the cross-field current instability

The cross-field current instability (CCI) was proposed elsewhere as a plausible mechanism for the initiation and intensification of substorm expansions. This instability encompasses the modified two stream, the ion-Weibel and the lower hybrid drift modes. The work carried out in relation to this instability and its local and global effects is reviewed. Predicted local effects include current reduction, particle acceleration, the excitation of oblique whistlers and lower hybrid drift waves, and the breakdown of the frozen-in-field condition through anomalous dissipation. The predicted global effects of CCI include the offset of force equilibrium and the generation of field aligned currents at the disruption site, which allow the efficient large scale transportation of mass, momentum and energy within the magnetosphere.

Lui, A. T. Y.↗

On the Anticorrelation Between High Accretion Luminosity and Radio Jet Ejection in Gro J1655-40 and Other Objects

A model is described in which radio jet formation in accreting objects is suppressed by processes which occur when the accretion rate approaches the Eddington limit. This was motivated by GRO J1655-40 and other objects which show an anticorrelation between high luminosity and the onset of a radio jet. The jet production mechanism employed is the Blandford-Payne MHD acceleration process, seeded by an e'e- pair wind. Observations indicate that all key ingredients of this mechanism are, or should be, present in these sources. Observed jet velocities and total powers are consistent with theoretical and numerical predictions of this model. The primary jet suppression mechanism proposed is the Papaloizou-Pringle compressible shear instability, which should disrupt the jet-producing region of the disk when the accretion rate approaches about one-third Eddington. The turn-on of the jet in GRO J 1 655 - 40 is consistent with this estimate. When super-Eddington, the disk should also drive an optically thick, subrelativistic wind, which may be a secondary jet suppression mechanism. The possible presence of such a wind is seen in the early spectral evolution of GRO J1655-40 and in the broad absorption lines of certain quasi-stellar objects (QSOs). Important tests of the model would be independent measurements of the compact object masses in these sources, a comparison of normal and broad absorption line (BAL) QSO X-ray spectra to see if the latter objects are significantly cooler, and a low-frequency search around BAL QSOs to see if at least some have fossil radio sources.

Meier, D.↗

A Machine-Learning Approach to Assess Aircraft Engine System Performance

Artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning, and big data are transforming the global business environment. They have become the most disruptive technologies for organizations to improve workplace efficiency and productivity. This work explored the application of machine learning-based predictive analytics that would enable aircraft engine designers to estimate engine system performance quickly during the conceptual design stage. Supervised machine-learning algorithm was employed to study patterns in an existing database of production and research turbofan engines, and built predictive analytics for use in predicting system performance of new turbofan designs. Specifically, the author developed deep-learning analytics to predict turbofan system weight, using turbofan design parameters as the input. The predictive analytics were trained and deployed in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application program interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (an open-source artificial AI library developed by Google) serving as the backend engine. The current engine-weight prediction results, together with those for the TSFC (thrust specific fuel consumption) and core-size predictions that were studied previously by the author, show that machine learning-based predictive analytics can be an effective, time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. It would enable expeditious identification of the best engine design amongst several candidates.

Michael T Tong↗

Early Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms and Space Hazards

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can cause hazadous high-energy particles and geomagnetic storms that, in the more serious instances, can disrupt Earth power grids, communications, and satellites.

space weather space physics solar physics microspa↗

Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond

There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons and beyond. This is driven by the needs of the energy, water management, and agriculture sectors, to name a few. There is an increasing realization that, unlike weather forecasts, prediction skill on longer time scales can leverage specific climate phenomena or conditions for a predictable signal above the weather noise. Currently, it is understood that these conditions are intermittent in time and have spatially heterogeneous impacts on skill, hence providing strategic windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts. Research points to such windows of opportunity, including El Niño or La Niña events, active periods of the Madden–Julian oscillation, disruptions of the stratospheric polar vortex, when certain large-scale atmospheric regimes are in place, or when persistent anomalies occur in the ocean or land surface. Gains could be obtained by increasingly developing prediction tools and metrics that strategically target these specific windows of opportunity. Across the globe, reevaluating forecasts in this manner could find value in forecasts previously discarded as not skillful. Users’ expectations for prediction skill could be more adequately met, as they are better aware of when and where to expect skill and if the prediction is actionable. Given that there is still untapped potential, in terms of process understanding and prediction methodologies, it is safe to expect that in the future forecast opportunities will expand. Process research and the development of innovative methodologies will aid such progress.

Annarita Mariotti↗

Effects of global atmospheric perturbations on forest ecosystems: Predictions of seasonal and cumulative effects

The physical effects of certain large events, such as giant impacts, explosive volcanism, or combined nuclear explosions, have the potential of inducing global catastrophes in our terrestrial environment. Such highly energetic events can inject substantial quantities of material into the atmosphere. In turn, this changes the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and modifies atmospheric temperatures to produce a wide range of global effects. One consequence is the introduction of serious stresses in both plants and animals throughout the Earth's biosphere. For example, recent studies predict that forest lands, crop lands, and range lands would suffer specific physical and biological degradations if major physical and chemical disruptions occurred in our atmosphere. Forests, which cover over 4 times 10 to the 9th power hectares (4 times 10 to the 7th power sq km) of our planet, or about 3 times the area now cultivated for crops, are critical to many processes in the biosphere. Forests contribute heavily to the production of atmospheric oxygen, supply the major volume of biomass, and provide a significant percentage of plant and animal habitats.

Tinus, R. W.↗

Converging Indicators for Assessing Individual Differences in Adaptation to Extreme Environments: Preliminary Report

This paper describes the development and validation of a new methodology for assessing the deleterious effects of spaceflight on crew health and performance. It is well known that microgravity results in various physiological alterations, e.g., headward fluid shifts which can impede physiological adaptation. Other factors that may affect crew operational efficiency include disruption of sleep-wake cycles, high workload, isolation, confinement, stress and fatigue. From an operational perspective, it is difficult to predict which individuals will be most or least affected in this unique environment given that most astronauts are first-time flyers. During future lunar and Mars missions space crews will include both men and women of multi-national origins, different professional backgrounds, and various states of physical condition. Therefore, new methods or technologies are needed to monitor and predict astronaut performance and health, and to evaluate the effects of various countermeasures on crew during long duration missions. This paper reviews several studies conducted in both laboratory and operational environments with men and women ranging in age between 18 to 50 years. The studies included the following: soldiers performing command and control functions during mobile operations in enclosed armored vehicles; subjects participating in laboratory tests of an anti-motion sickness medication; subjects exposed to chronic hypergravity aboard a centrifuge, and subject responses to 36-hours of sleep deprivation. Physiological measurements, performance metrics, and subjective self-reports were collected in each study. The results demonstrate that multivariate converging indicators provide a significantly more reliable method for assessing environmental effects on performance and health than any single indicator.

Cowings, Patricia S.↗

Using Tests Designed to Measure Individual Sensorimotor Subsystem Perfomance to Predict Locomotor Adaptability

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during the initial exposure to microgravity and during the readapation phase following a return to a gravitational environment. These alterations may lead to disruption in the ability to perform mission critical functions during and after these gravitational transitions. Astronauts show significant inter-subject variation in adaptive capability following gravitational transitions. The way each individual's brain synthesizes the available visual, vestibular and somatosensory information is likely the basis for much of the variation. Identifying the presence of biases in each person's use of information available from these sensorimotor subsystems and relating it to their ability to adapt to a novel locomotor task will allow us to customize a training program designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. Eight tests are being used to measure sensorimotor subsystem performance. Three of these use measures of body sway to characterize balance during varying sensorimotor challenges. The effect of vision is assessed by repeating conditions with eyes open and eyes closed. Standing on foam, or on a support surface that pitches to maintain a constant ankle angle provide somatosensory challenges. Information from the vestibular system is isolated when vision is removed and the support surface is compromised, and it is challenged when the tasks are done while the head is in motion. The integration and dominance of visual information is assessed in three additional tests. The Rod & Frame Test measures the degree to which a subject's perception of the visual vertical is affected by the orientation of a tilted frame in the periphery. Locomotor visual dependence is determined by assessing how much an oscillating virtual visual world affects a treadmill-walking subject. In the third of the visual manipulation tests, subjects walk an obstacle course while wearing up-down reversing prisms. The two remaining tests include direct measures of knee and ankle proprioception and a functional movement assessment that screens for movement restrictions and asymmetries. To assess each subject's locomotor adaptability subjects walk for twenty minutes on a treadmill that oscillates laterally at 0.3 Hz. Throughout the test metabolic cost provides a measure of exertion and step frequency provides a measure of stability. Additionally, at four points during the perturbation period, reaction time tests are used to probe changes in the amount of mental effort being used to perform the task. As with the adaptive capability observed in astronauts during gravitational transitions, our data shows significant variability between subjects. To aid in the analysis of the results, custom software tools have been developed to enhance in the visualization of the large number of output variables. Preliminary analyses of the data collected to date do not show a strong relationship between adaptability and any single predictor variable. Analysis continues to identify a multifactorial predictor outcome "signature" that do inform us of locomotor adaptability.

Peters, B. T.↗

Collisional and dynamical history of Gaspra

Interpretation of the impact record on Gaspra requires understanding of the effects of collisions on a target body of Gaspra's size and shape, recognition of impact features that may have different morphologies from craters on larger planets, and models of the geological processes that erase and modify impact features. Crater counts on the 140 sq km of Gaspra imaged at highest resolution by the Galileo spacecraft show a steep size-frequency distribution (cumulative power-law index near -3.5) from the smallest resolvable size (150 m diameter) up through the large feature (1.5 km diameter crater) of familiar crater-like morphology. In addition, there appear to be as many as eight roughly circular concavities with diameters greater than 3 km visible on the asteroid. If we restrict our crater counts to features with traditionally recognized crater morphologies, these concavities would not be included. However, if we define craters to include any concave structures that may represent local or regional damage at an impact size, then the larger features on Gaspra are candidates for consideration. Acceptance of the multi-km features as craters has been cautious for several reasons. First, scaling laws (the physically plausible algorithms for extrapolating from experimental data) indicate that Gaspra could not have sustained such large-crater-forming impacts without being disrupted; second, aside from concavity, the larger structures have no other features (e.g. rims) that can be identified with known impact craters; and third, extrapolation of the power-law size distribution for smaller craters predicts no craters larger than 3 km over the entire surface. On the other hand, recent hydrocode modeling of impacts shows that for given impact (albeit into a sphere), the crater size is much larger than given by scaling laws. Gaspra-size bodies can sustain formation of up to 8-km craters without disruption. Besides allowing larger impact craters, this result doubles the lifetime since the last catastrophic fragmentation event up to one billion years. Events that create multi-km craters also globally damage the material structure, such that regolith is produced, whether or not Gaspra 'initially' had a regolith, contrary to other models in which initial regolith is required in order to allow current regolith. Because the globally destructive shock wave precedes basin formation, crater size is closer to the large size extrapolated from gravity-scaling rather than the strength-scaling that had earlier been assumed for such small bodies. This mechanism may also help explain the existence of Stickney on Phobos. Moreover, rejection of the large concavities as craters based on unfamiliar morphology would be premature, because (aside from Stickney) we have no other data on such large impact structures on such a small, irregular body. The eight candidate concavities cover an area greater than that counted for smaller craters, because they are most apparent where small craters cannot be seen: on low resolution images and at the limb on high resolution images. We estimate that there are at least two with diameter greater than 4 km per 140 sq km, which would have to be accounted for in any model that claims these are impact craters.

Greenberg, R.↗

EMI from Spacecraft Docking Systems Spacecraft Charging - Plasma Contact Potentials

The plasma contact potential of a visiting vehicle (VV), such as the Orion Service Module (SM), is determined while docking at the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). Due to spacecraft charging effects on-orbit, the potential difference between the CEV and the VV can be large at docking, and an electrostatic discharge (ESD) could occur at capture, which could degrade, disrupt, damage, or destroy sensitive electronic equipment on the CEV and/or VV. Analytical and numerical models of the CEV are simulated to predict the worst-case potential difference between the CEV and the VV when the CEV is unbiased (solar panels unlit: eclipsed in the dark and inactive) or biased (solar panels sunlit: in the light and active).

Norgard, John D.↗

Arousal from sleep by noises from aircraft with and without acoustically treated nacelles

The electroencephalographic and behavioral responses during sleep of four subjects, aged 46 to 58 years, to three types of noises were tested over 14 consecutive nights. The stimuli were two DC-8 jet landing noises (each 30 seconds in duration and coming from DC-8 aircraft with and without acoustical treatment on the engine nacelles) and a 4-second burst of pink noise. Each of the noises was tested at nominal intensities of 61 and 79 dBA. Other physical descriptors of the noises were measured or computed. The results indicate that for an equivalent degree of sleep disruption, noise form the jet aircraft with untreated nacelles must be about 6 dBA less intense than the jet with acoustically treated nacelles. Predictions of the effects of noise on sleep appear, tentatively, to attain the highest accuracy when the physical descriptor of noise intensity includes information about the impulsive characteristics of that noise as well as its long-term spectral content.

Lukas, J. S.↗

POEMMA’s Target-of-Opportunity Sensitivity to Cosmic Neutrino Transient Sources

We investigate the capability of the Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA)in performing Target-of-Opportunity (ToO) neutrino observations. POEMMA is a proposed space-based probe-class mission for ultra high-energy cosmic ray and very-high-energy neutrino detection using two spacecraft, each equipped with a large Schmidt telescope to detect optical and near-ultraviolet signals generated by extensive air showers (EASs). POEMMA will be sensitive to Cherenkov radiation from upward-moving EASs initiated by tau neutrinos interacting in the Earth. POEMMA will be able to quickly re-point (90◦in 500 s) each of the two spacecraft to the direction of an astrophysical source, which in combination with its orbital speed will provide it with unparalleled capability to follow up transient alerts. We calculate POEMMA’s transient sensitivity for two observational configurations for the satellites (ToO-stereo and ToO-dual for smaller and larger satellite separations, respectively) and investigate the impact of variations arising due to POEMMA’s orbital characteristics on its sensitivity to tau neutrinos in various regions of the sky. We explore separate scenarios for long (∼105−6s) and short (∼103s) duration events, accounting for intrusion from the Sun and the Moon in the long-duration scenario. We compare the sensitivity and sky coverage of POEMMA for ToO observations with those for existing experiments (e.g., IceCube, ANTARES, and the Pierre Auger Observatory) and other proposed future experiments (e.g., GRAND200k).For long bursts, we find that POEMMA will provide a factor of&7 improvement in average neutrino sensitivity above 300 PeV with respect to existing experiments, reaching the level of model predictions for neutrino fluences at these energies and above from several types of long-duration astrophysical transients (e.g., binary neutron star mergers and tidal disruption events). For short bursts, POEMMA will improve the sensitivity over existing experiments by at least an order of magnitude forEν∼>100 PeV in the “best-case” scenario. POEMMA’s orbital characteristics and rapid re-pointing capability will provide it access to the full celestial sky, including regions that will not be accessible to ground-based neutrino experiments. Finally, we discuss the prospects for POEMMA to detect neutrinos from candidate astrophysical neutrino sources in the nearby universe. Our results demonstrate that with its improved neutrino sensitivity at ultra-high energies and unique full-sky coverage, POEMMA will be an essential, complementary component in a rapidly expanding multi-messenger network.

Tonia M Venters↗

Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains

The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.

Stamber, Kevin L.↗

How Many Vesta-Like Bodies Existed in the Asteroid Belt?

Asteroid 4 Vesta is typically thought to be the parent body of the HED (howardite, eucrite, and diogenite) meteorites due to spectral similarities. The discovery of asteroids far from Vesta with HED-like spectra like (1459) Magnya and HED-like meteorites (e.g., NWA 011) with anomalous oxygen isotopic values compared to typical HEDs is evidence that other Vesta-like bodies formed. We broadly define a Vesta-like body as a differentiated object with a crust composed primarily of low-Ca pyroxene and plagioclase feldspar. We estimate the number of Vesta-like bodies that did form by looking at the astronomical evidence; the oxygen isotopic, chemical, and petrologic evidence; and the iron meteorite evidence. Assuming that fragments of Vesta were scattered from Vesta by giant planet migration, we conservatively estimate that at least two Vesta-like bodies (Vesta and the Magnya parent bodies) existed. From the oxygen isotopic, chemical, and petrologic evidence, we also conservatively estimate that seven Vesta-like bodies formed. Analyses of iron meteorites indicate that there may be as many as 23 Vesta-like bodies (Vesta, 10 magmatic iron groups, South Byron trio, Emsland/Mbosi duo, 10 ungrouped irons). This estimate from iron meteorites is most certainly an overestimation due to the existence of a number of non-HED crustal/mantle fragments that potentially originated from bodies with magmatic iron cores. Using our three estimates as a guide, we predict that there were ~10 Vesta-like bodies (including Vesta) that formed in the early solar system. Only Vesta remains intact with the others being disrupted early in solar system history.

T. H. Burbine↗