Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “disruption prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

Advanced Materials & Manufacturing Technology (AMMT): Development of Additive Manufacturing Agnostic Process Parameter Procedure, 316H Stainless Steel Readiness Level Data Sets, and Machine Maintenance Plan

The University of California, Davis is involved in a project to deploy and enhance an artificial intelligence (AI) system for predicting and preventing plasma disruptions on the DIII D tokamak, under the funding from Department of Energy DE-SC0023500 (title: AI/Deep Learning FRNN Software for Prediction & Real-Time Control of DIII-D Plasma Control System (PCS)). The overarching goal is to demonstrate that real-time, AI-guided intervention can proactively modify the plasma state to avoid or mitigate disruptions—a critical challenge for the future of fusion energy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Black hole-neutron star binaries near neutron star disruption limit in the mass regime of event GW230529

In May 2023, the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) Collaboration reported the likely black hole-neutron star (BHNS) merger GW230529_181500. The signal was observed with high significance in only one detector, limiting constraints on the black hole spin and motivating our study of disruption in this mass regime. That event is expected to be the merger of a 2.5–4.5 M ⊙ primary with a secondary compact object of mass between 1.2–2.0 M ⊙ . This makes it the first BHNS merger with a significant potential for the production of electromagnetic (EM) counterparts, and provides further evidence for compact objects existing within the suspected lower mass gap. To produce post-merger EM transients, the component of the black hole spin aligned with the orbital angular momentum must be sufficiently high, allowing the neutron star to be tidally disrupted. The disrupting BHNS binary may then eject a few percent of a solar mass of matter, leading to an observable kilonova driven by radioactive decays in ejecta, and/or a compact-binary gamma-ray burst (cbGRB) resulting from the formation of an accretion disk and relativistic jet. Determining which mergers lead to disruption of the neutron star is necessary to predict the prevalence of EM signals from BHNS mergers, yet most BHNS simulations so far have been performed far from the minimum spin required for tidal disruption. Here, we use the Spectral Einstein Code to explore the behavior of BHNS mergers in a mass range consistent with GW230529_181500 close to that critical spin, and compare our results against the mass remnant model currently used by the LVK Collaboration to predict the probability of tidal disruption. Furthermore, our numerical results reveal the emergence of non-zero accretion disks even below the predicted NS disruption limit, of low mass but capable of powering cbGRBs. Our results also demonstrate that the remnant mass model underpredicts the disk mass for the DD2 equation of state, while they are within expected modeling errors for SFHo. The disruption limit itself, however, is not found to significantly differ from the predictions of the analytical model, unless remnant masses M rem ≲ 0.001 M ⊙ prove interesting observationally. In all of our simulations, any kilonova signal would be dim and most likely dominated by post-merger disk outflows.

GW230529_181500↗

Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming

Subseasonal weather prediction can reduce economic disruption and loss of life, especially during “windows of opportunity” when noteworthy events in the Earth system are followed by characteristic weather patterns. Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the winter stratospheric polar vortex, are one such event. They often precede warm temperatures in Northern Canada and cold, stormy weather throughout Europe and the United States - including the most recent SSW on January 5th, 2021. Here we assess the drivers of surface weather in the weeks following the SSW through initial condition “scrambling” experiments using the real-time CESM2(WACCM6) Earth system prediction framework. We find that the SSW itself had a limited impact, and that stratospheric polar vortex stretching and wave reflection had no discernible contribution to the record cold in North America in February. Instead, the tropospheric circulation and bidirectional coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere were dominant contributors to variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of carbon pellets disruption mitigation in an NSTX-U plasma

Single carbon pellet disruption mitigation simulations using M3D-C1 were conducted for an NSTX-U-like plasma to support the electromagnetic pellet injection concept (EPI). A carbon ablation model has been implemented in M3D-C1 and tested with available data. 2D simulations were conducted in order to estimate the amount of carbon needed to quench the plasma, finding that the content in a 1 mm radius vitreous carbon pellet (~3.2x10E20 atoms) would be enough if it is entirely ablated. 3D simulations were performed, scanning over pellet velocity and parallel thermal conductivity, as well as different injection directions and pellet concepts (solid pellets and shell pellets). The sensitivity of the thermal quench and other related quantities to these parameters has been evaluated. A 1 mm radius solid pellet only partially ablates at velocities of 300 m/s or higher, thus being unable to fully quench the plasma. To further enhance the ablation, approximations to an array of pellets and the shell pellet concept were also explored. 3D field line stochastization plays an important role in both quenching the center of the plasma and in heat flux losses, thus lowering the amount of carbon needed to mitigate the plasma when compared to the 2D case. This study constitutes an important step forward in `predict-first' simulations for disruption mitigation in NSTX-U and other devices, such as ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Identification of novel small molecule inhibitors of twin arginine translocation (Tat) pathway and their effect on the control of Campylobacter jejuni in chickens

Introduction Control ofCampylobacterfrom farm to fork is challenging due to the frequent emergence of antimicrobial-resistant isolates. Furthermore, poultry production systems are known reservoirs ofCampylobacter. The twin-arginine translocation (Tat) pathway is a crucial bacterial secretion system that allowsCampylobacterto colonize the host intestinal tract by using formate as the main source of energy. However, Tat pathway is also a major contributing factor for resistance to copper sulfate (CuSO 4 ). Methods Since mammals and chickens do not have proteins or receptors that are homologous to bacterial Tat proteins, identification of small molecule (SM) inhibitors targeting the Tat system would allow the development of safe and effective control methods to mitigateCampylobacterin infected or colonized hosts in both pre-harvest and post-harvest. In this study, we screened 11 commercial libraries (n = 50,917 SM) for increased susceptibility to CuSO 4 (1 mM) inC. jejuni81–176, a human isolate which is widely studied. Results Furthermore, we evaluated 177 SM hits (2.5 μg/mL and above) that increased the susceptibility to CuSO 4 for the inhibition of formate dehydrogenase (Fdh) activity, a Tat-dependent substrate. Eight Tat-dependent inhibitors (T1–T8) were selected for further studies. These selected eight Tat inhibitors cleared all testedCampylobacterstrains (n = 12) at >10 ng/mL in the presence of 0.5 mM CuSO 4 in vitro. These selected SMs were non-toxic to colon epithelial (Caco-2) cells when treated with 50 μg/mL for 24 h and completely cleared intracellularC. jejunicells when treated with 0.63 μg/mL of SM for 24 h in the presence of 0.5 mM of CuSO 4 . Furthermore, 3 and 5-week-old chicks treated with SM candidates for 5 days had significantly decreased cecal colonization (up to 1.2 log;p < 0.01) with minimal disruption of microbiota.In silicoanalyses predicted that T7 has better drug-like properties than T2 inhibitor and might target a key amino acid residue (glutamine 165), which is located in the hydrophobic core of TatC protein. Discussion Thus, we have identified novel SM inhibitors of the Tat pathway, which represent a potential strategy to controlC. jejunispread on farms.

Microbiology↗

Disruption of Dark Matter Minihalos in the Milky Way Environment: Implications for Axion Miniclusters and Early Matter Domination

Many theories of dark matter beyond the weakly interacting massive particles paradigm feature an enhanced matter power spectrum on subparsec scales, leading to the formation of dense dark matter minihalos. Future local observations are promising to search for and constrain such substructures. The survival probability of these dense minihalos in the Milky Way environment is crucial for interpreting local observations. In this work, we investigate two environmental effects: stellar disruption and (smooth) tidal disruption. These two mechanisms are studied using semianalytic models and idealized N-body simulations. For stellar disruption, we perform a series of N-body simulations of isolated minihalo–star encounters to test and calibrate analytic models of stellar encounters before applying the model to the realistic Milky Way disk environment. For tidal disruption, we perform N-body simulations to confirm the effectiveness of the analytic treatment. Finally, we propose a framework to combine the hierarchical assembly and infall of minihalos to the Milky Way with the late-time disruption mechanisms. We make predictions for the mass functions of minihalos in the Milky Way. The mass survival fraction (at M$_{mh}$ ≥ 10$^{−12}$M$_{⊙}$) of dense dark matter minihalos, e.g., for axion miniclusters and minihalos from early matter domination, is ∼60% with the relatively low-mass, compact population surviving. The survival fraction is insensitive to the detailed model parameters. We discuss various implications of the framework and future direct detection prospects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Multimodal Prediction of Tearing Instabilities in a Tokamak

Tokamak is a torus-shaped nuclear fusion device that uses magnetic fields to confine fusion fuel in the form of plasma. Tearing instability in plasma is a major issue in which the magnetic field breaks and recombines in tokamak. Here, this instability can lead to plasma disruption that terminates the fusion power generation and damages the plasma-facing wall materials. For a successful steady operation of a large-scale tokamak without disruption, it is required to predict and alarm the tearing instabilities well in advance to avoid them. In this work, we develop and validate a deep neural network-based multimodal prediction system that estimates the future tearing instability likelihood from multi-diagnostics signals in the DIII-D tokamak.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NSTX-U research advancing the physics of spherical tokamaks

Abstract The objectives of NSTX-U research are to reinforce the advantages of STs while addressing the challenges. To extend confinement physics of low- A , high beta plasmas to lower collisionality levels, understanding of the transport mechanisms that set confinement performance and pedestal profiles is being advanced through gyrokinetic simulations, reduced model development, and comparison to NSTX experiment, as well as improved simulation of RF heating. To develop stable non-inductive scenarios needed for steady-state operation, various performance-limiting modes of instability were studied, including MHD, tearing modes, and energetic particle instabilities. Predictive tools were developed, covering disruptions, runaway electrons, equilibrium reconstruction, and control tools. To develop power and particle handling techniques to optimize plasma exhaust in high performance scenarios, innovative lithium-based solutions are being developed to handle the very high heat flux levels that the increased heating power and compact geometry of NSTX-U will produce, and will be seen in future STs. Predictive capabilities accounting for plasma phenomena, like edge harmonic oscillations, ELMs, and blobs, are being tested and improved. In these ways, NSTX-U researchers are advancing the physics understanding of ST plasmas to maximize the benefit that will be gained from further NSTX-U experiments and to increase confidence in projections to future devices.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Adaptive Cognitive Mechanisms to Maintain Calibrated Trust and Reliance in Automation

Trust calibration for a human–machine team is the process by which a human adjusts their expectations of the automation’s reliability and trustworthiness; adaptive support for trust calibration is needed to engender appropriate reliance on automation. Herein, we leverage an instance-based learning ACT-R cognitive model of decisions to obtain and rely on an automated assistant for visual search in a UAV interface. This cognitive model matches well with the human predictive power statistics measuring reliance decisions; we obtain from the model an internal estimate of automation reliability that mirrors human subjective ratings. The model is able to predict the effect of various potential disruptions, such as environmental changes or particular classes of adversarial intrusions on human trust in automation. Finally, we consider the use of model predictions to improve automation transparency that account for human cognitive biases in order to optimize the bidirectional interaction between human and machine through supporting trust calibration. The implications of our findings for the design of reliable and trustworthy automation are discussed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Tokamak edge localized mode onset prediction with deep neural network and pedestal turbulence

Abstract A neural network, BES-ELMnet, predicting a quasi-periodic disruptive eruption of the plasma energy and particles known as edge localized mode (ELM) onset is developed with observed pedestal turbulence from the beam emission spectroscopy system in DIII-D. BES-ELMnet has convolutional and fully-connected layers, taking two-dimensional plasma fluctuations with a temporal window of size 128 µ s and generating a scalar output which can be interpreted as a probability of the upcoming ELM onset. As approximately labeled inter-ELM broadband ( 15 kHz ⩽ f ⩽ 150 kHz ) fluctuations are given to the network, BES-ELMnet learns by itself ELM-related precursors arising before the onsets through supervised learning scheme. BES-ELMnet achieves the gradually increasing ELM onset probabilities between two consecutive ELMs during the inter-ELM phases and can forecast the first ELM onsets which occur after the high confinement mode transition. We further investigate the network generality in terms of the selected frequency band to ensure the use of BES-ELMnet for various operation regimes without changing the trained architecture. Therefore, our novel prediction method will enhance a proactive high confinement mode control of fusion-grade plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Overview of the recent experimental research on the J-TEXT tokamak

The J-TEXT capability is enhanced compared to two years ago with several upgrades of its diagnostics and the increase of electron cyclotron resonance heating (ECRH) power to 1 MW. With the application of electron cyclotron wave (ECW), the ECW assisted plasma startup is achieved; the tearing mode is suppressed; the toroidal injection of 300 kW ECW drives around 24 kA current; fast electrons are generated with toroidal injected ECW and the runaway current conversion efficiency increases with ECRH power. The mode coupling between 2/1 and 3/1 modes are extensively studied. The coupled 2/1 and 3/1 modes usually lead to major disruption. Their coupling can be either suppressed or avoided by external resonant magnetic perturbation fields and hence avoids the major disruption. It is also found that the 2/1 threshold of external field is significantly reduced by a pre-excited 3/1 mode, which can be either a locked island or an external kink mode. The disruption control is studied by developing prediction methods capable of cross tokamak application and by new mitigation methods, such as the biased electrode or electromagnetic pellet injector. The high-density operation and related disruptions are studied from various aspects. Approaching the density limit, the collapse of the edge shear layer is observed and such collapse can be prevented by applying edge biasing, leading to an increased density limit. The density limit is also observed to increase, if the plasma is operated in the poloidal divertor configuration or the plasma purity is increased by increasing the pre-filled gas pressure or ECRH power during the start-up phase.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Impact of classical statistics on thermal conductivity predictions of BAs and diamond using machine learning molecular dynamics

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have greatly enhanced molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, achieving near-first-principles accuracy in thermal conductivity studies. In this work, we reveal that this accuracy, observed in BAs and diamond at sub-Debye temperatures, stems from an accidental error cancelation: classical statistics overestimates specific heat while underestimating phonon lifetimes, balancing out in thermal conductivity predictions. However, this balance is disrupted when isotopes are introduced, leading MLIP-based MD to significantly underpredict thermal conductivity compared to experiments and quantum statistics-based Boltzmann transport equation. This discrepancy arises not from classical statistics affecting phonon–isotope scattering rates but from its impact on the interplay between phonon–isotope and phonon–phonon scattering in the normal scattering-dominated BAs and diamond. In conclusion, this work underscores the limitations of MLIP-based MD for thermal conductivity studies at sub-Debye temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Understanding local plant extinctions before it is too late: bridging evolutionary genomics with global ecology

Understanding evolutionary genomic and population processes within a species range is key to anticipating the extinction of plant species before it is too late. However, most models of biodiversity risk under global change do not account for the genetic variation and local adaptation of different populations. Population diversity is critical to understanding extinction because different populations may be more or less susceptible to global change and, if lost, would reduce the total diversity within a species. Here, two new modeling frameworks advance our understanding of extinction from a population and evolutionary angle: Rapid climate change-driven disruptions in population adaptation are predicted from associations between genomes and local climates. Furthermore, losses of population diversity from global land-use transformations are estimated by scaling relationships of species' genomic diversity with habitat area. Overall, these global eco-evolutionary methods advance the predictability – and possibly the preventability – of the ongoing extinction of plant species.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Collaborative Research: The Evolution of Magnetic Skeletons During 3D Reconnection. Final report

We investigated how the plasmoid instability affects the evolution of topological features of a magnetic field and the process of magnetic reconnection with three sub-projects. (i) We extensively studied the criterion for plasmoid-mediated current sheet disruption and the onset of fast reconnection. Scaling relations with respect to plasma parameters have been established, using both direct numerical simulations and analytic theories, for the disruption time, the current sheet width, the instability linear growth rate, and the dominant mode wavenumber. (ii) We applied the theories of plasmoid-mediated current sheet disruption to magnetohydrodynamic turbulence and predicted a steepening of the turbulence energy spectrum. This steepening has been confirmed by direct numerical simulations. (iii) We performed numerical simulations of ultraviolet burst events in the solar atmosphere with a spine-dome magnetic topology. The plasmoid instability leads to unsteady reconnection, which is consistent with solar observations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

MHD stability and disruptions in the SPARC tokamak

SPARC is being designed to operate with a normalized beta of $β_N$ = 1.0, a normalized density of $n_G$ = 0.37 and a safety factor of $q_{95}$ ≈ 3.4, providing a comfortable margin to their respective disruption limits. Further, a low beta poloidal $β_p$ = 0.19 at the safety factor $\textit{q}$ = 2 surface reduces the drive for neoclassical tearing modes, which together with a frozen-in classically stable current profile might allow access to a robustly tearing-free operating space. Although the inherent stability is expected to reduce the frequency of disruptions, the disruption loading is comparable to and in some cases higher than that of ITER. The machine is being designed to withstand the predicted unmitigated axisymmetric halo current forces up to 50 MN and similarly large loads from eddy currents forced to flow poloidally in the vacuum vessel. Runaway electron (RE) simulations using GO+CODE show high flattop-to-RE current conversions in the absence of seed losses, although NIMROD modelling predicts losses of ~80 %; self-consistent modelling is ongoing. A passive RE mitigation coil designed to drive stochastic RE losses is being considered and COMSOL modelling predicts peak normalized fields at the plasma of order 10 –2 that rises linearly with a change in the plasma current. Massive material injection is planned to reduce the disruption loading. A data-driven approach to predict an oncoming disruption and trigger mitigation is discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Simulation of MHD instabilities with fluid runaway electron model in M3D- C 1

Runaway electrons are generated in a tokamak during the start up, during normal operation and during a plasma disruption. During a disruption, runaway electrons can be accelerated to high energies, potentially damaging the first wall. To predict the consequences of runaway generation during a disruption, it is necessary to consider resonant interactions of runaways with the bulk plasma. Here we consider the interactions of runaways on low mode number tearing modes. We have developed a fluid runaway electron model for the 3D MHD code M3D-C1[Jardin,et al. J Comput. Sci Discovery 6 014002 (2012)]. To benchmark, we have reproduced the MHD linear tearing mode results (with runaway electrons) in a circular cylinder presented in previous analytic studies[[Helander, P., et al, Phys. Plasmas 14 144102 (2007)] and extended here with a numerical eigenvalue calculation. Furthermore, we find that the low mode number tearing mode has a rotation caused by the MHD - runaways interaction, and the toroidal current scale length is much smaller with runaways than that for without and decreases as the runaway speed increases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bipartite chromatin recognition by Hop1 from two diverged Holozoa

In meiosis, ploidy reduction is driven by a complex series of DNA breakage and recombination events between homologous chromosomes, orchestrated by meiotic HORMA domain proteins (HORMADs). Meiotic HORMADs possess a central chromatin binding region (CBR) whose architecture varies across eukaryotic groups. Here, we determine high-resolution crystal structures of the meiotic HORMAD CBR from two diverged aquatic Holozoa,Schistosoma mansoniandPatiria miniata, which reveal tightly associated plant homeodomain (PHD) and winged helix-turn-helix (wHTH) domains. We show that PHD–wHTH CBRs bind duplex DNA through their wHTH domains, and identify key residues that disrupt this interaction. Combining experimental and predicted structures, we show that the CBRs’ PHDs likely interact with the tail of histone H3, and may discriminate between unmethylated and trimethylated H3 lysine 4. Finally, we show that Holozoa Hop1 CBRs bind nucleosomes in vitro in a bipartite manner involving both the PHD and wHTH domain. Our data reveal how meiotic HORMADs with PHD–wHTH CBRs can bind chromatin and potentially discriminate between chromatin states to drive meiotic recombination to specific chromosomal regions.

Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics↗

Resistive wall tearing mode disruptions in DIII-D and ITER tokamaks

Disruptions are a serious problem in tokamaks, in which thermal and magnetic energy confinement is lost. This paper uses data from the DIII-D experiment, theory, and simulations to demonstrate that resistive wall tearing modes (RWTMs) produce the thermal quench (TQ) in a typical locked mode shot. Analysis of the linear RWTM dispersion relation shows the parameter dependence of the growth rate, particularly on the resistive wall time. Linear simulations of the locked mode equilibrium show that it is unstable with a resistive wall and stable with an ideally conducting wall. Nonlinear simulations demonstrate that the RWTM grows to sufficient amplitude to cause a complete thermal quench. The RWTM growth time is proportional to the thermal quench time. Here, the nonlinearly saturated RWTM magnetic perturbation amplitude agrees with experimental measurements. The onset condition is that the q = 2 rational surface is sufficiently close to the resistive wall. Collectively, this identifies the RWTM as the cause of the TQ. In ITER, RWTMs will produce long TQ times compared to present-day experiments. ITER disruptions may be significantly more benign than previously predicted.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗