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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A high resolution, gridded product for vapor pressure deficit using Daymet

Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a critical variable in assessing drought conditions and evaluating plant water stress. Gridded products of global and regional VPD are not freely available from satellite remote sensing, model reanalysis, or ground observation datasets. We present two versions of the first gridded VPD product for the Continental US and parts of Northern Mexico and Southern Canada (CONUS+) at a 1 km spatial resolution and daily time step. We derived VPD from Daymet maximum daily temperature and average daily vapor pressure and scale the estimates based on (1) climate determined by the Köppen-Geiger classifications and (2) land cover determined by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme. Ground-based VPD data from 253 AmeriFlux sites representing different climate and land cover classifications were used to improve the Daymet-derived VPD estimates for every pixel in the CONUS+ grid to produce the final datasets. We evaluated the Daymet-derived VPD against independent observations and reanalysis data. The CONUS+ VPD datasets will aid in investigating disturbances including drought and wildfire, and informing land management strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SPT-CL J2215−3537: A Massive Starburst at the Center of the Most Distant Relaxed Galaxy Cluster

Abstract We present the discovery of the most distant, dynamically relaxed cool core cluster, SPT-CL J2215−3537 (SPT2215), and its central brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) at z = 1.16. Using new X-ray observations, we demonstrate that SPT2215 harbors a strong cool core with a central cooling time of 200 Myr (at 10 kpc) and a maximal intracluster medium cooling rate of 1900 ± 400 M ⊙ yr −1 . This prodigious cooling may be responsible for fueling the extended, star-forming filaments observed in Hubble Space Telescope imaging. Based on new spectrophotometric data, we detect bright [O ii ] emission in the BCG, implying an unobscured star formation rate (SFR) of 320 − 140 + 230 M ⊙ yr −1 . The detection of a weak radio source (2.0 ± 0.8 mJy at 0.8 GHz) suggests ongoing feedback from an active galactic nucleus (AGN), though the implied jet power is less than half the cooling luminosity of the hot gas, consistent with cooling overpowering heating. The extreme cooling and SFR of SPT2215 are rare among known cool core clusters, and it is even more remarkable that we observe these at such high redshift, when most clusters are still dynamically disturbed. The high mass of this cluster, coupled with the fact that it is dynamically relaxed with a highly isolated BCG, suggests that it is an exceptionally rare system that must have formed very rapidly in the early universe. Combined with the high SFR, SPT2215 may be a high- z analog of the Phoenix cluster, potentially providing insight into the limits of AGN feedback and star formation in the most massive galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Antarctic lake phytoplankton and bacteria from near‐surface waters exhibit high sensitivity to climate‐driven disturbance

Abstract The McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs), Antarctica, represent a cold, desert ecosystem poised on the threshold of melting and freezing water. The MDVs have experienced dramatic signs of climatic change, most notably a warm austral summer in 2001–2002 that caused widespread flooding, partial ice cover loss and lake level rise. To understand the impact of these climatic disturbances on lake microbial communities, we simulated lake level rise and ice‐cover loss by transplanting dialysis‐bagged communities from selected depths to other locations in the water column or to an open water perimeter moat. Bacteria and eukaryote communities residing in the surface waters (5 m) exhibited shifts in community composition when exposed to either disturbance, while microbial communities from below the surface were largely unaffected by the transplant. We also observed an accumulation of labile dissolved organic carbon in the transplanted surface communities. In addition, there were taxa‐specific sensitivities: cryptophytes and Actinobacteria were highly sensitive particularly to the moat transplant, while chlorophytes and several bacterial taxa increased in relative abundance or were unaffected. Our results reveal that future climate‐driven disturbances will likely undermine the stability and productivity of MDV lake phytoplankton and bacterial communities in the surface waters of this extreme environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Field Guide to Corralling the Chaos: A Conceptual Framework for Using Models to Guide Opportunistic Field Studies of Natural Disturbances

Watersheds regulate biogeochemical processes and provide ecosystem services to human societies, but disturbances can fundamentally alter these processes across space and time. Determining when and where to sample to capture disturbance impacts in watersheds remains a central challenge. Manipulation studies and long-term monitoring are often constrained by scope, and opportunistic studies often lack pre-disturbance data needed to statistically determine disturbance impacts. We identify a persistent knowledge gap: the absence of a clear, transferable framework to guide opportunistic disturbance research where pre-disturbance data collection is not a feasible option. To address this gap, we present a conceptual framework that intentionally integrates modeling and empirical observation in an iterative, stepwise model–experiment workflow. We demonstrate its application through two contrasting case studies: wildfire impacts on headwater streams using a pre-disturbance preparedness approach, and saltwater flooding impacts on coastal forests using an ‘ex-post-facto’ approach. From these applications, we assess strengths, limitations, and the critical role of team science for transferability across disturbance types and study designs. Broadly, this framework offers a scalable path towards more rigorous, timely, and actionable disturbance science that can inform watershed management, hazard risk reduction, and ecosystem resilience.

Coastal Biogeochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest

Abstract Crown damage can account for over 23% of canopy biomass turnover in tropical forests and is a strong predictor of tree mortality; yet, it is not typically represented in vegetation models. We incorporate crown damage into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to evaluate how lags between damage and tree recovery or death alter demographic rates and patterns of carbon turnover. We represent crown damage as a reduction in a tree's crown area and leaf and branch biomass, and allow associated variation in the ratio of aboveground to belowground plant tissue. We compare simulations with crown damage to simulations with equivalent instant increases in mortality and benchmark results against data from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. In FATES, crown damage causes decreases in growth rates that match observations from BCI. Crown damage leads to increases in carbon starvation mortality in FATES, but only in configurations with high root respiration and decreases in carbon storage following damage. Crown damage also alters competitive dynamics, as plant functional types that can recover from crown damage outcompete those that cannot. This is a first exploration of the trade‐off between the additional complexity of the novel crown damage module and improved predictive capabilities. At BCI, a tropical forest that does not experience high levels of disturbance, both the crown damage simulations and simulations with equivalent increases in mortality does a reasonable job of capturing observations. The crown damage module provides functionality for exploring dynamics in forests with more extreme disturbances such as cyclones and for capturing the synergistic effects of disturbances that overlap in space and time.

Needham, Jessica F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impact of hurricane disturbances on a tropical forest: implementing a palm plant functional type and hurricane disturbance module in ED2-HuDi V1.0

Hurricanes commonly disturb and damage tropical forests. Hurricane frequency and intensity are predicted to change under the changing climate. The short-term impacts of hurricane disturbances to tropical forests have been widely studied, but the long-term impacts are rarely investigated. Modeling is critical to investigate the potential response of forests to future disturbances, particularly if the nature of the disturbances is changing with climate. Unfortunately, existing models of forest dynamics are not presently able to account for hurricane disturbances. Therefore, we implement the Hurricane Disturbance in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) (ED2-HuDi). The hurricane disturbance includes hurricane-induced immediate mortality and subsequent recovery modules. The parameterizations are based on observations at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds (BEW) in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. We add one new plant functional type (PFT) to the model – Palm, as palms cannot be categorized into one of the current existing PFTs and are known to be an abundant component of tropical forests worldwide. The model is calibrated with observations at BEW using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. The optimal simulation obtained from GLUE has a mean relative error of –21 %, –12 %, and –15 % for stem density, basal area, and aboveground biomass, respectively. The optimal simulation also agrees well with the observation in terms of PFT composition (+1 %, –8 %, –2 %, and +9 % differences in the percentages of “Early”, “Mid”, “Late”, and “Palm” PFTs, respectively) and size structure of the forest (+0.8 % differences in the percentage of large stems). Lastly, using the optimal parameter set, we study the impact of forest initial condition on the recovery of the forest from a single hurricane disturbance. The results indicate that, compared to a no-hurricane scenario, a single hurricane disturbance has little impact on forest structure (+1 % change in the percentage of large stems) and composition (<1 % change in the percentage of each of the four PFTs) but leads to 5 % higher aboveground biomass after 80 years of succession. The assumption of a less severe hurricane disturbance leads to a 4 % increase in aboveground biomass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inertia Estimation Under High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources

Many types of renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind generation, are connected to the electric grid through power-electronic-based interfaces (inverters). These inverter-based resources (IBRs) are mechanically decoupled from the grid, which reduces system inertia and thus may compromise its stability and reliability. In this study, we examine the impact of high penetration of IBRs on the power grid’s inertia. To achieve this, we intentionally introduce disturbances into a simulation case study, such as a step load change, to observe and record the system’s frequency responses. This study offers a nuanced understanding of how the integration of IBRs affects grid stability, and it provides essential guidance for future grid management and resilience strategies.

Yadav, Ajay↗
DOE OSTI2025

Network of networks: Time series clustering of AmeriFlux sites

Environmental observation networks, such as AmeriFlux, are foundational for monitoring ecosystem response to climate change, management practices, and natural disturbances; however, their effectiveness depends on their representativeness for the regions or continents. We proposed an empirical, time series approach to quantify the similarity of ecosystem fluxes across AmeriFlux sites. We extracted the diel and seasonal characteristics (i.e., amplitudes, phases) from carbon dioxide, water vapor, energy, and momentum fluxes, which reflect the effects of climate, plant phenology, and ecophysiology on the observations, and explored the potential aggregations of AmeriFlux sites through hierarchical clustering. While net radiation and temperature showed latitudinal clustering as expected, flux variables revealed a more uneven clustering with many small (number of sites < 5), unique groups and a few large (> 100) to intermediate (15–70) groups, highlighting the significant ecological regulations of ecosystem fluxes. Many identified unique groups were from under-sampled ecoregions and biome types of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), with distinct flux dynamics compared to the rest of the network. At the finer spatial scale, local topography, disturbance, management, edaphic, and hydrological regimes further enlarge the difference in flux dynamics within the groups. Nonetheless, our clustering approach is a data-driven method to interpret the AmeriFlux network, informing future cross-site syntheses, upscaling, and model-data benchmarking research. Finally, we highlighted the unique and underrepresented sites in the AmeriFlux network, which were found mainly in Hawaii and Latin America, mountains, and at under-sampled IGBP types (e.g., urban, open water), motivating the incorporation of new/unregistered sites from these groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards Robustness Guarantees for Feedback-Based Optimization

Feedback-based online optimization algorithms have gained traction in recent years because of their simple implementation, their ability to reject disturbances in real time, and their increased robustness to model mismatch. While the robustness properties have been observed both in simulation and experimental results, the theoretical analysis in the literature is mostly limited to nominal conditions. In this work, we propose a framework to systematically assess the robust stability of feedback-based online optimization algorithms. We leverage tools from monotone operator theory, variational inequalities and classical robust control to obtain tractable numerical tests that guarantee robust convergence properties of online algorithms in feedback with a physical system, even in the presence of disturbances and model uncertainty. The results are illustrated via an academic example and a case study of a power distribution system.

approximation algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2020

Local Phasor-Based Control of DER Inverters for Voltage Regulation on Distribution Feeders

We introduce a new control paradigm termed Phasor-Based Control (PBC) to coordinate Distributed Energy Resources (DER) for improved voltage regulation and other objectives. PBC is a multi-layer control framework where the state of the distribution grid is represented by voltage phasors, and Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) measure the state at critical points in the distribution grid. In the PBC paradigm, a supervisory controller (S-PBC) sets phasor targets which local controllers track. In this paper, we propose a Proportional Integral (PI) implementation for the local control layer (LPBC), to regulate real and reactive power output of distributed inverters to track a voltage phasor target computed by the supervisory layer. We tune the PI controller gains offline with a genetic algorithm that yields better performance than the Ziegler-Nichols method. We benchmark the proposed L-PBC controller against droop volt-var control (DVVC) and observe improved voltage regulation in simulation on the IEEE 13 node unbalanced test feeder (IEEE 13NF). Furthermore, by means of numerical simulation we observe the response of the L-PBC controllers to small and large grid disturbances. Simulations on larger feeders, IEEE 123-node and 647-node, demonstrate challenges with tuning controllers in setups with different amounts of power-voltage coupling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diurnal observations of basal stem CO2 efflux in three canopy dominant trees in the central Amazon

We explored mechanisms responsible for disturbance-induced shifts in carbon metabolism in forests north of Manaus, Brazil (S2º 38' 17", W60º 09' 25"), using data from a selective logging experiment (BIONTE). BIONTE (the BIOmass and NuTrient Experiment) selective logging treatments were initiated in the mid-1980s and comprised variable removal of commercial tree (not total) species basal area (T1 =32%, T2 = 42%, T3 = 69%), and control plots with no logging (T0). Raw data including tree base diameter (Db), CO2 concentration versus time inside a static stem chamber, and wood density were used to derive stem respiration rates (Rw), wood production rates (Pw), and wood carbon use efficiency (CUE). Changes in tree base diameter (Db; measured at 1.3 m height, or above the buttresses) was used to calculate wood production for individual trees (Pw). Wood density enabled calculation of stem growth rate in the same units as stem respiration (mmol C m-2 s-1). Four trees were randomly selected from five tree growth rate classes for each treatment block, for a total of 20 trees per treatment block, or 80 trees total from the BIONTE plots. Each of the 80 trees selected for the Rw study were outfitted with dendrometer bands (da Silva et al. 2002). Stem respiration was measured using the method described in Chambers et al. (2004). Briefly, an infra-red gas analyzer (LiCor 820) was operated as a closed dynamic chamber with a flow rate of 1.0 L min-1. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) semi-cylindrical chambers (250–400 mL) were secured to the tree stem near the dendrometer bands using nylon straps. The measurement interval spanned 1–2 min, and the CO2 flux from the stem of each tree was quantified using the enclosed stem area and slope of the stem CO2 concentration versus time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

LAI, EVI, NDVI, and kNDVI in 23 pantropical forests affected by 21 cyclones

Statement of purpose: Cyclones alter the function and composition of tropical forests, making effects of intensifying cyclones on carbon-rich forests a critical topic of study. Here, we quantified cyclone-induced damage and recovery of 21 cyclone disturbances affecting 23 pantropical forest sites between 1988-2017 utilizing leaf area index (LAI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and transformed NDVI (kNDVI) values from Google Earth Engine. Field observations collected in a meta-analysis (Bomfim et al., 2022, in review) were used to ground-truth and test effects of soil resource availability and disturbance factors on damage and recovery. This meta-analysis also served as the basis to begin vegetation index extraction, utilizing unique site and date combinations, from tropical forests effect by cyclone disturbances. We began collecting NDVI (5km resolution) from the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Version 5 data product (Vermote, 2019) for all case studies included, 42. Next, we began extracting Landsat data from Landsat 4, 5, and 8, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey, in search of higher resolution data. We selected a 3 by 3 Landsat pixel area, leading to a 90m resolution data extraction. The specific imagery used includes Landsat 4 USGS Landsat 4 TM Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA (top of atmosphere) Reflectance, Landsat 5 USGS Landsat 5 TM (thematic mapper) Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance, and Landsat 8 USGS Landsat 8 Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance. Within Google Earth Engine, we selected the date and location (latitude and longitude), calculated NDVI, kNDVI, and EVI utilizing Landsat bands (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones), and extracted post- and pre-cyclone values for each case study to calculate cyclone-induced change in the vegetative index. Due to limited spatial resolution of Landsat remote sensing data, MODIS products were investigated next. First, the MOD13Q1.006 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day Global 250m product was used to extract 250m EVI and NDVI (Didan, 2015) and then the MCD15A3H.006 MODIS Leaf Area Index/FPAR 4-Day Global 500m product product was used to extract LAI 500m (Myneni et al., 2015). Pre- and post-cyclone values, change in the vegetative index, and standard deviation for all values are included in the main csv (see case_study_data.csv) for all vegetative indices collected, including LAI 500m, EVI 250m, NDVI 250m, NDVI 90m, kNDVI 90m, EVI 90m, and NDVI 5km. Lastly, recovery values were calculated utilizing a standardization method (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones) and recovery values for MODIS (see MODIS_recovery.csv) and Landsat (Landsat_recovery.csv) data are included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Positive correlation between wood δ 15 N and stream nitrate concentrations in two temperate deciduous forests

Abstract A limitation to understanding drivers of long-term trends in terrestrial nitrogen (N) availability in forests and its subsequent influence on stream nitrate export is a general lack of integrated analyses using long-term data on terrestrial and aquatic N cycling at comparable spatial scales. Here we analyze relationships between stream nitrate concentrations and wood δ 15 N records (n = 96 trees) across five neighboring headwater catchments in the Blue Ridge physiographic province and within a single catchment in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic province in the eastern United States. Climatic, acidic deposition, and forest disturbance datasets were developed to elucidate the influence of these factors on terrestrial N availability through time. We hypothesized that spatial and temporal variation of terrestrial N availability, for which tree-ring δ 15 N records serve as a proxy, affects the variation of stream nitrate concentration across space and time. Across space at the Blue Ridge study sites, stream nitrate concentration increased linearly with increasing catchment mean wood δ 15 N. Over time, stream nitrate concentrations decreased with decreasing wood δ 15 N in five of the six catchments. Wood δ 15 N showed a significant negative relationship with disturbance and acidic deposition. Disturbance likely exacerbated N limitation by inducing nitrate leaching and ultimately enhancing vegetative uptake. As observed elsewhere, lower rates of acidic deposition and subsequent deacidification of soils may increase terrestrial N availability. Despite the ephemeral modifications of terrestrial N availability by these two drivers and climate, long-term declines in terrestrial N availability were robust and have likely driven much of the declines in stream nitrate concentration throughout the central Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Attosecond XUV probing of vibronic quantum superpositions in Br 2 +

Ultrafast laser excitation can create coherent superpositions of electronic states in molecules and trigger ultrafast flow of electron density on a few femtosecond timescale. While recent attosecond experiments have addressed real-time observation of these primary photochemical processes, the underlying roles of simultaneous nuclear motions and how they modify and disturb the valence electronic motion remain uncertain. In this work, we investigate coherent electronic-vibrational dynamics induced among multiple vibronic levels of ionic bromine (Br 2 + ), including both spin-orbit (X 2 Π 3/2,g – X 2 Π 1/2,g ) and valence (A 2 Π 3/2,u – 4 Σ 3/2,u ) electronic superpositions, using attosecond transient absorption spectroscopy. Decay, revival, and apparent frequency shifts of electronic coherences are measured via characteristic quantum beats on the Br-3d core-level absorption signals. Quantum-mechanical simulations attribute the observed electronic decoherence to broadened phase distributions of nuclear wave packets on anharmonic potentials. Molecular vibronic structure is further revealed to be imprinted as discrete progressions in electronic beat frequencies. These results provide a future basis to interpret complex charge-migration dynamics in polyatomic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multitaper Magnitude‐Squared Coherence for Time Series With Missing Data: Understanding Oscillatory Processes Traced by Multiple Observables

To explore the hypothesis of a common source of variability in two time series, observers may estimate the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), which is a frequency-domain view of the cross correlation. For time series that do not have uniform observing cadence, MSC can be estimated using Welch's overlapping segment averaging. However, multitaper has superior statistical properties to Welch's method in terms of the tradeoff between bias, variance, and bandwidth. The classical multitaper technique has recently been extended to accommodate time series with underlying uniform observing cadence from which some observations are missing. This situation is common for solar and geomagnetic data sets, which may have gaps due to breaks in satellite coverage, instrument downtime, or poor observing conditions. We demonstrate the scientific use of missing-data multitaper magnitude-squared coherence by detecting known solar mid-term oscillations in simultaneous, missing-data time series of solar Lyman α flux and geomagnetic Disturbance Storm Time index. Due to their superior statistical properties, we recommend that multitaper methods be used for all heliospheric time series with underlying uniform observing cadence.

Astro-statistics techniques (1886)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Past and present disturbances generate spatial variation in seed predation

Seed survival is a key process for plant populations; variation in the activity and abundance of animals that consume seeds can lead to dramatic shifts in seed fate. Because granivores may respond to contemporary disturbance as well as to enduring changes in habitats caused by past disturbances, understanding seed fate requires studies capable of evaluating how past and present disturbances modify granivore communities, foraging activity, and ultimately, seed predation. Historic agricultural land use and contemporary canopy harvesting are widespread disturbances that could generate large-scale patterns of seed fate by modifying environmental characteristics that determine granivore identity and behavior. Here, to evaluate whether land-use history and canopy harvesting affect seed–animal interactions, we conducted an experiment distributed across 80,000 ha of longleaf pine woodlands that coupled large-scale canopy harvesting at seven 4-ha sites containing both post-agricultural land use and nonagricultural land use in South Carolina, United States. We deployed a total of 28,000 nail-tagged seeds and recovered the tags to quantify seed fate. Past agricultural land use and contemporary canopy harvesting interacted to affect the rate of seed predation. Seed predation rates in harvested sites depended on land-use history: Seed predation was 30% lower in post-agricultural plots than in nonagricultural plots. This interaction was driven by the differential effect of land-use history and canopy harvesting on rodent activity. Camera traps revealed that Sigmodon hispidus only foraged in harvested plots and was most active in nonagricultural plots. In harvested plots, seed removal increased with S. hispidus activity. In unharvested plots, seed removal increased with Sciurus niger activity, but S. niger was not affected by land-use history. In finding that land-use history and canopy harvesting determine the outcomes of seed–animal interactions, we show that understanding patterns of seed predation is contingent upon the interplay of disturbances in both the distant past and recent past. These results suggest that patterns of past land use and present land use may help reconcile the considerable variation in seed fate observed in ecological communities.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗