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At least 73 records · Page 4

Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). Feasibility of assessing crop condition and yield from LANDSAT data

The author has identified the following significant results. Yield modelling for crop production estimation derived a means of predicting the within-a-year yield and the year-to-year variability of yield over some fixed or randomly located unit of area. Preliminary studies indicated that the requirements for interpreting LANDSAT data for yield may be sufficiently similar to those of signature extension that it is feasible to investigate the automated estimation of production. The concept of an advanced yield model consisting of both spectral and meteorological components was endorsed. Rationale for using meteorological parameters originated from known between season and near harvest dynamics in crop environmental-condition-yield relationships.

Source record↗

Modeling perennial bioenergy crops in the E3SM land model (ELMv2)

Perennial bioenergy crops are increasingly important for the production of ethanol and other renewable fuels, and as part of an agricultural system that alters the climate through its impact on biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties of the terrestrial ecosystem. Few earth system models (ESMs) represent such crops, however. In this study, we expand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2) to include perennial bioenergy crops with a high potential for mitigating climate change. We focus on high-productivity miscanthus and switchgrass, estimating various parameters associated with their different growth stages and performing a global sensitivity analysis to identify and optimize these parameters. The sensitivity analysis identifies five parameters associated with phenology, carbon/nitrogen allocation, stomatal conductance, and maintenance respiration as the most sensitive parameters for carbon and energy fluxes. We calibrated and validated the model against observations and found that the model closely captures the observed seasonality and the magnitude of carbon fluxes. The validated model represents the latent heat flux fairly well, but sensible heat flux for miscanthus is not well captured. Finally, we validated the model against observed leaf area index (LAI) and harvest amount and found modeled LAI captured observed seasonality , although the model underestimates LAI and harvest amount. This work provides a foundation for future ESM analyses of the interactions between perennial bioenergy crops and carbon, water, and energy dynamics in the larger earth system, and sets the stage for studying the impact of future biofuel expansion on climate and terrestrial systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Dynamic urban land extensification is projected to lead to imbalances in the global land-carbon equilibrium

Abstract Human-Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models used to explore the land-atmosphere implications of future land-use transitions generally lack dynamic representation of urban lands. Here, we conduct an experiment incorporating dynamic urbanization in a multisector model framework. We integrate projected dynamic non-urban lands from a multisector model with projected dynamic urban lands from 2015 to 2100 at 1-km resolution to examine 1 st -order implications to the land system, crop production, and net primary production that can arise from the competition over land resources. By 2100, future urban extensification could displace 0.1 to 1.4 million km 2 of agriculture lands, leading to 22 to 310 Mt of compromised corn, rice, soybean, and wheat production. When considering increased corn production required to meet demands by 2100, urban extensification could cut increases in yields by half. Losses in net primary production from displaced forest, grassland, and croplands ranged from 0.24 to 2.24 Gt C yr −1 , potentially increasing land emissions by 1.19 to 6.59 Gt CO 2 yr −1 . Although these estimates do not consider adaptive responses, 1 st -order experiments can elucidate the individual role of sub-sectors that would otherwise be masked by model complexity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

Current ozone (O 3 ) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O 3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O 3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O 3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010-2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0-6.0, 9.8-18.8, 6.7-10.6 and 10.4-12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O 3 . When O 3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2B (China).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detection of Chlorophyll and Leaf Area Index Dynamics from Sub-weekly Hyperspectral Imagery

Temporally rich hyperspectral time-series can provide unique time critical information on within-field variations in vegetation health and distribution needed by farmers to effectively optimize crop production. In this study, a dense time series of images were acquired from the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion sensor over an intensive farming area in the center of Saudi Arabia. After correction for atmospheric effects, optimal links between carefully selected explanatory hyperspectral vegetation indices and target vegetation characteristics were established using a machine learning approach. A dataset of in-situ measured leaf chlorophyll (Chll) and leaf area index (LAI), collected during five intensive field campaigns over a variety of crop types, were used to train the rule-based predictive models. The ability of the narrow-band hyperspectral reflectance information to robustly assess and discriminate dynamics in foliar biochemistry and biomass through empirical relationships were investigated. This also involved evaluations of the generalization and reproducibility of the predictions beyond the conditions of the training dataset. The very high temporal resolution of the satellite retrievals constituted a specifically intriguing feature that facilitated detection of total canopy Chl and LAI dynamics down to sub-weekly intervals. The study advocates the benefits associated with the availability of optimum spectral and temporal resolution spaceborne observations for agricultural management purposes.

Houborg, Rasmus↗

Improved representation of agricultural land use and crop management for large-scale hydrological impact simulation in Africa using SWAT+

To date, most regional and global hydrological models either ignore the representation of cropland or consider crop cultivation in a simplistic way or in abstract terms without any management practices. Yet, the water balance of cultivated areas is strongly influenced by applied management practices (e.g. planting, irrigation, fertilization, and harvesting). The SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model represents agricultural land by default in a generic way, where the start of the cropping season is driven by accumulated heat units. However, this approach does not work for tropical and subtropical regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where crop growth dynamics are mainly controlled by rainfall rather than temperature. In this study, we present an approach on how to incorporate crop phenology using decision tables and global datasets of rainfed and irrigated croplands with the associated cropping calendar and fertilizer applications in a regional SWAT+ model for northeastern Africa. We evaluate the influence of the crop phenology representation on simulations of leaf area index (LAI) and evapotranspiration (ET) using LAI remote sensing data from Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) and WaPOR (Water Productivity through Open access of Remotely sensed derived data) ET data, respectively. Results show that a representation of crop phenology using global datasets leads to improved temporal patterns of LAI and ET simulations, especially for regions with a single cropping cycle. However, for regions with multiple cropping seasons, global phenology datasets need to be complemented with local data or remote sensing data to capture additional cropping seasons. In addition, the improvement of the cropping season also helps to improve soil erosion estimates, as the timing of crop cover controls erosion rates in the model. With more realistic growing seasons, soil erosion is largely reduced for most agricultural hydrologic response units (HRUs), which can be considered as a move towards substantial improvements over previous estimates. We conclude that regional and global hydrological models can benefit from improved representations of crop phenology and the associated management practices. Future work regarding the incorporation of multiple cropping seasons in global phenology data is needed to better represent cropping cycles in areas where they occur using regional to global hydrological models.

crop phenology↗

Atmospheric Boundary-Layer and Flutter Computations Using CFD Model of the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel

This paper presents two Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models of the flow in the NASA Langley Research Center Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT). The TDT is a continuous-flow, closed circuit wind tunnel with a 16- by 16-foot slotted test section with cropped corners. The tunnel was originally built as the 19-ft Pressure Tunnel in 1938, but it was converted to the current transonic tunnel in the 1950s, with capabilities to use either air or heavy gas as the test medium. The first computational model describes the generation of an atmospheric-boundary-layer (ABL) profile inside the tunnel. An ABL, which includes both a wind profile and turbulence content, is one of the aerodynamic characteristics affecting the occurrence of wind-induced oscillations for a launch vehicle sitting on a pad. The challenging part of this analysis was modeling the turbulent flow inside the tunnel. This is due to the special ABL-generating hardware that was installed at the entrance of the TDT test section in order to change the downstream velocity profile and to introduce velocity fluctuations into the flow. The second CFD model builds on the computational aeroelastic results that were generated in support of the second Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop (AePW) for the NASA Benchmark Supercritical Wing (BSCW) configuration. During the AePW, the wing-only configuration (classical free-air model) was analyzed. In the current study, the flutter computations were conducted on the configuration as it was mounted in the TDT during the experiment. This includes the wing attached to the splitter plate that was attached to the wind-tunnel walls. The preliminary results show that the wind-tunnel walls marginally affect flutter prediction.

Pawel Chwalowski↗

Vegetation clutter model

The statistical behavior of the radar backscattering coefficient of agricultural crops is examined. The data used were obtained by the microwave active spectrometer (MAS) systems in 1975 and 1976. Based on an evaluation of the angular and spectral variation of the mean, median, and 90-percent dynamic range of the coefficient (dB) histograms, empirical expressions describing the joint angular and frequency dependence of the mean and median were generated for each linear polarization configuration. The clutter model thus generated covers the angular range between 0 deg (nadir) and 80 deg and the frequency range between 1 GHz and 18 GHz. Decorrelation of the coefficient with frequency spacing was also evaluated and modeled.

Ulaby, F. T.↗

Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications

This technical report presents Prithvi-EO-2.0, a new geospatial foundation model that offers significant improvements over its predecessor, Prithvi-EO-1.0. Trained on 4.2M global time series samples from NASA’s Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data archive at 30m resolution, the new 300M and 600M parameter models incorporate temporal and location embeddings for enhanced performance across various geospatial tasks. Through extensive benchmarking with GEOBench, the 600M version outperforms the previous Prithvi-EO model by 8% across a range of tasks. It also outperforms six other geospatial foundation models when benchmarked on remote sensing tasks from different domains and resolutions (i.e. from 0.1m to 15m). The results demonstrate the versatility of the model in both classical earth observation and high-resolution applications. Early involvement of end-users and subject matter experts (SMEs) are among the key factors that contributed to the project’s success. In particular, SME involvement allowed for constant feedback on model and dataset design, as well as successful customization for diverse SME-led applications in disaster response, land use and crop mapping, and ecosystem dynamics monitoring. Prithvi-EO-2.0 is available on Hugging Face and IBM terratorch, with additional resources on GitHub. The project exemplifies the Trusted Open Science approach embraced by all involved organizations.

Daniela Szwarcman↗

Understanding the Radiant Scattering Behavior of Vegetated Scenes

Knowledge of the physics of the scattering behavior of vegetation will ultimately serve the remote sensing and earth science community in many ways. For example, it will provide: (1) insight and guidance in developing new extraction techniques of canopy characteristics, (2) a basis for better interpretation of off-nadir satellite and aircraft data, (3) a basis for defining specifications of future earth observing sensor systems, and (4) a basis for defining important aspects of physical and biological processes of the plant system. The overall objective of the three-year study is to improve our fundamental understanding of the dynamics of directional scattering properties of vegetation canopies through analysis of field data and model simulation data. The specific objectives are to: (1) collect directional reflectance data covering the entire exitance hemisphere for several common vegetation canopies with various geometric structure (both homogeneous and row crop structures), (2) develop a scene radiation model with a general mathematical framework which will treat 3-D variability in heterogeneous scenes and account for 3-D radiant interactions within the scene, (3) conduct validations of the model on collected data sets, and (4) test and expand proposed physical scattering mechanisms involved in reflectance distribution dynamics by analyzing both field and modeling data.

Kimes, D. S.↗

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model

Comprehensive study of the environmental impacts associated with demand for an energy resource or carrier in any one sector requires a full consideration of the direct and indirect impacts on the rest of the regional and global energy system. It is important to consider the energy that is consumed in producing primary energy resources and energy consumed in transporting these energy resources internationally and domestically in order to produce a complete picture of these impacts. Biofuels are especially complex since they have feedbacks not just to the energy system but also to regional and global crop markets. Different modeling and analysis strategies have been applied to consider these impacts, which occur “upstream” of final energy consumption, with some success. Traditional life cycle models allow for rich technological detail in linking upstream impacts of energy demand with downstream final consumption; however, they cannot by themselves represent dynamic economic feedbacks across multiple sectors and regions over time. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling does account for economic feedback among all sectors and regions; however, CGE modeling does not lend itself to physical representation of technological detail. Partial equilibrium (PE) modeling is a heterogeneous category describing economic models that focus on a subset of the economy, and they differ in coverage and ease in incorporating more sectors and economic links. In this study, we present a strategy for dynamically including the direct and indirect impacts of energy demand with physical and technology detail by explicitly adding these upstream energy and transportation links to GCAM, a PE model of global energy, land use, and emissions. We incorporate the following inter-sectoral linkages: energy inputs to crop production, energy inputs to fossil resource production, and freight transport requirements of energy and agricultural commodities. We assess the implications of explicitly including these links by measuring the global impacts of increased corn ethanol demand in the United States with and without these links included. Although the net global impact of the upstream links on energy and emissions are relatively modest in the scenarios we studied, the inclusion of these links illustrates interesting trade-offs in energy and transportation demand among fossil fuel and agriculture sectors. These sectoral interactions suggest that this level of modeling detail could be important in evaluating future analytical questions.

Sampedro Martinez de Estivariz, Jon↗

Comparative feedstock analysis in Setaria viridis L. as a model for C 4 bioenergy grasses and panicoid crop species

Second generation feedstocks for bioethanol will likely include a sizable proportion of perennial C4 grasses, principally in the Panicoideae clade. The Panicoideae contain agronomically important annual grasses including Zea mays L. (maize), Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench (sorghum), and Saccharum officinarum L. (sugar cane) as well as promising second generation perennial feedstocks including Miscanthus × giganteus and Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass). The underlying complexity of these polyploid grass genomes is a major limitation for their direct manipulation and thus driving a need for rapidly cycling comparative model. Setaria viridis (green millet) is a rapid cycling C4 panicoid grass with a relatively small and sequenced diploid genome and abundant seed production. Stable, transient, and protoplast transformation technologies have also been developed for Setaria viridis making it a potentially excellent model for other C4 bioenergy grasses. Here, the lignocellulosic feedstock composition, cellulose biosynthesis inhibitor response and saccharification dynamics of Setaria viridis are compared with the annual sorghum and maize and the perennial switchgrass bioenergy crops as a baseline study into the applicability for translational research. A genome-wide systematic investigation of the cellulose synthase-A genes was performed identifying eight candidate sequences. Two developmental stages; (a) metabolically active young tissue and (b) metabolically plateaued (mature) material are examined to compare biomass performance metrics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Targeted modulation of pennycress lipid droplet proteins impacts droplet morphology and seed oil content

SUMMARY Lipid droplets (LDs) are unusual organelles that have a phospholipid monolayer surface and a hydrophobic matrix. In oilseeds, this matrix is nearly always composed of triacylglycerols (TGs) for efficient storage of carbon and energy. Various proteins play a role in their assembly, stability and turnover, and even though the major structural oleosin proteins in seed LDs have been known for decades, the factors influencing LD formation and dynamics are still being uncovered mostly in the “model oilseed” Arabidopsis. Here we identified several key LD biogenesis proteins in the seeds of pennycress, a potential biofuel crop, that were correlated previously with seed oil content and characterized here for their participation in LD formation in transient expression assays and stable transgenics. One pennycress protein, the lipid droplet associated protein‐interacting protein (LDIP), was able to functionally complement the Arabidopsis ldip mutant, emphasizing the close conservation of lipid storage among these two Brassicas. Moreover, loss‐of‐function ldip mutants in pennycress exhibited increased seed oil content without compromising plant growth, raising the possibility that LDIP or other LD biogenesis factors may be suitable targets for improving yields in oilseed crops more broadly.

Guzha, Athanas↗

United States Multi-Sector Dynamics land use and land cover base maps to support Human-Earth System Modeling

Datasets are land use and land cover (LULC) rasterized base maps at 30-m resolution for the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the years 2008, 2011, 2016, and 2019. Separate base maps are provided where LULC classifications are thematically congruent with Community Land Model (CLM), Land Use Harmonization (LUH2), and Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a detailed decomposition of all combined land classes into a Multisector Dynamics (MSD) LULC product. Base maps were developed using empirically derived satellite (National Land Cover Dataset, MODIS) and combined observation datasets (Crop Data Layer, Protected Areas Database) and represent the most up-to-date accurate information on LULC in the CONUS. The four datasets encompass four different landcover classification systems: MSD Layers - The raw landcover classes obtained from reclassifying NLCD and USDA Crop data layers into a respective landcover class GCAM Layers - The MSD classes mosaiced, reclassified, and combined into the respective GCAM landcover classes CLM Layers - Similar process to GCAM layers, but mosaiced, reclassified, and combined MSD layers to their respective PFT classes LUH2 Layers - Similar process to both GCAM and CLM Layers, but mosaiced, reclassified and combined the MSD layers to align with the respective states

Food↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations of the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel Airstream Oscillator System

This paper presents a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the flow in the NASA Langley Research Center Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) with the Airstream Oscillator System (AOS) in operation. The TDT is a continuous-flow, closed circuit wind tunnel with a 16- by 16-foot slotted test section with cropped corners. The tunnel was originally built as the 19-ft Pressure Tunnel in 1938, but it was converted to the current transonic tunnel in the 1950s, with capabilities to use either air or heavy gas (R-134a) as the test medium. The TDT was also fitted with an AOS which can be used to create a gust field in the test section. To date, no computational analyses of the TDT involving the AOS have been performed. In this study, experimental data acquired of an oscillating airstream in the tunnel will be used to calibrate the computational analyses. A significant motivation of this work is to attempt to compare computational gust velocities to those recorded in the TDT literature. In addition to a validation of this model with experimental data, it may also be possible to supplement the experimental data with computational data. The experimental data is rather sparse and at only a few Mach numbers. Computational results may be able to expand the AOS data set. Another motivation for this work is that the Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation (IAWTM) semi-span model of the high-aspect-ratio CRM with 10 trailing edge control surfaces is currently being fabricated and will be delivered to the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) for testing in late 2020. Among tests to be conducted, gust load alleviation (GLA) will be demonstrated at transonic conditions using the AOS.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

An Adaptive Dynamic Agrivoltaic Production Tool

In the pursuit of sustainable and land-use-efficient solutions to mitigate climate change, the concept of agrivoltaic systems, which integrate renewable solar energy into conventional agriculture, has emerged. By deploying solar arrays above the crop field, these systems are designed to maximize the land use efficiency or, in other words, the value of generated electricity and crop yield per unit area. While power generation has been extensively studied and modeled, research gaps persist in simulating crop performance [1], [2]. Early studies utilized generalized relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and crop production. However, significant variations in crop performance due to other factors, such as weather and soil, can compromise the reliability of the results [2]. Current studies focus on comprehensive process-based crop models, such as DSSAT [3] and STICS [4]. Nevertheless, the validation status varies greatly across different species, and the validation process requires well-designed experiments to adjust specific processes. For less common shade-tolerant crops with limited validation, such as cabbage, physiological behaviors can be difficult to predict [5]. This study investigates an adaptive dynamic agrivoltaic production tool (ADAPT) with few data requirements and minimal on-site calibration that can be easily applied in real applications.

Long, Qirui↗

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗