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Comparison of dynamical approximation schemes for non-linear gravitational clustering

We have recently conducted a controlled comparison of a number of approximations for gravitational clustering against the same n-body simulations. These include ordinary linear perturbation theory (Eulerian), the adhesion approximation, the frozen-flow approximation, the Zel'dovich approximation (describable as first-order Lagrangian perturbation theory), and its second-order generalization. In the last two cases we also created new versions of approximation by truncation, i.e., smoothing the initial conditions by various smoothing window shapes and varying their sizes. The primary tool for comparing simulations to approximation schemes was crosscorrelation of the evolved mass density fields, testing the extent to which mass was moved to the right place. The Zel'dovich approximation, with initial convolution with a Gaussian e(exp -k(exp 2)/k(exp 2, sub G)) where k(sub G) is adjusted to be just into the nonlinear regime of the evolved model (details in text) worked extremely well. Its second-order generalization worked slightly better. All other schemes, including those proposed as generalizations of the Zel'dovich approximation created by adding forces, were in fact generally worse by this measure. By explicitly checking, we verified that the success of our best-choice was a result of the best treatment of the phases of nonlinear Fourier components. Of all schemes tested, the adhesion approximation produced the most accurate nonlinear power spectrum and density distribution, but its phase errors suggest mass condensations were moved to slightly the wrong location. Due to its better reproduction of the mass density distribution function and power spectrum, it might be preferred for some uses. We recommend either n-body simulations or our modified versions of the Zel'dovich approximation, depending upon the purpose. The theoretical implication is that pancaking is implicit in all cosmological gravitational clustering, at least from Gaussian initial conditions, even when subcondensations are present.

Melott, Adrian L.↗

Physics and Chemistry of Te and HgTe-based Ternary Melts

Historically, the theoretical treatment of the liquid phases has always been more difficult and complicated than that for solid and gas phases. A liquid has no lattice structure as crystalline solids and the atoms/molecules in the liquid can migrate through it relatively rapidly. On the other hand, it is also interacting with many other atoms/molecules so that the simplifications of the kinetic theory of gases cannot be employed. For more complicated liquids, such as the liquids of high ionicity and those containing hydrogen bonds and electric dipoles, the understanding is far from complete. At the same time, accurate information on the physics and chemistry of semiconductor melts is needed for the quantitative descriptions of the process of crystal growth from melt. The pre-crystallization phenomena in the liquid phase are critical because the properties of the grown crystals depend on the state and structure of the melt as well as the thermal history of the melt during solidification process. However, the data on the liquid phase, such as thermophysical properties of semiconductor melts are scarce, especially for the HgTe-based II-VI ternary compound semiconductors because of their high vapor pressure and extreme toxicity. Analysis of the thermophysical properties of the melt can provide information about structural transitions of the melt during the solidification process. From a broader point of view, the structure of liquids is much more complicated than the crystalline solids, especially the relaxation behavior through different thermal histories. The theory of hetero-phase fluctuations of liquids is applicable to any many-body systems including condensed-matter physics, field theory, physics of nuclear-matter, cosmology, biology and even sociology. This book summarizes the physics and chemistry from the experimental measurements and theoretical analyses of phase diagram, thermodynamic properties, density, thermal conductivity, viscosity, and electrical conductivity on the binary, pseudo-binary and ternary melts of the most advanced IR-detector material systems of HgCdTe and HgZnTe as well as the analyses of these results. The main objectives of this study are: (1) to provide the phase diagrams and thermodynamic properties of Hg-Cd-Te and Hg-Zn-Te systems through quantitatively fitting the experimental data by assuming an associated solution model for the liquid phase, (2) to experimentally measure the thermophysical properties of the Hg-Cd-Te and Hg-Zn-Te melts, including density, viscosity, electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity as functions of temperature and composition and (3) to enhance the fundamental knowledge of hetero-phase fluctuations and relaxation phenomena in the melts and extend our understanding of the solidification process in order to interpret the experimental results of crystal growth so as to improve the melt growth processes of the compound semiconductor. The physics and chemistry of Te and HgTe-based ternary melts were explored through the studies of the structural transformation during melting, the supercooling during solidification, the relaxation phenomena after rapid cooling of the melts and the metal-semiconductor transition in the melts through the analyses of electrical conductivity and Lorenz number. An in-depth study on the thermophysical properties and their time-dependent structural dynamic processes taking place in the vicinity of the solid-liquid phase transition of the narrow homogeneity range HgTe-based ternary semiconductors as well as the analysis of the homogenization process in the melt will also be presented.

Thermophysical properties↗

Models of the Cartwheel ring galaxy: Spokes and starbursts

Recent observations of this famous ring galaxy, including optical and near-infrared CCD surface photometry, and VLA radio continuum and 21 cm line mapping (Higdon 1992b, in prep.), have inspired a renewed modeling effort. Toomre's (1978, in The Large-scale Structure of the Universe, eds. Longair and Einasto) series of restricted three-body simulations demonstrated how the multiple rings could be produced in a nearly head-on galaxy collision. New models with a halo-dominated potential based on the 21 cm rotation curve are able to reproduce such details as the spacing between rings, ring widths, offset of the nucleus, and several kinematical features, thus providing strong support for the collisional theory. The new observations have shown there are little or no old stars in Cartwheel; it may consist almost entirely of gas and stars produced as a result of compression in the ring wave. To model this process Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of the Cartwheel disk have been performed. Fixed gravitational potentials were used to represent the Cartwheel and a roughly 30 percent mass collision partner. The interaction dynamics was treated as in the usual restricted three-body approximation, and the effects of local self-gravity between disk particles were calculated. We are particularly interested in testing the theory that enhanced star formation in waves is the result of gravitational instability in the compressed region (see e.g. Kennicutt 1989, ApJ 344, 685). The gas surface density in a number of simulations was initialized to a value slightly below the threshold for local gravitational instability throughout most of the disk. The first ring wave produces relatively modest compressions (a factor of order a few), triggering instability in a narrow range of wavelengths. Self-gravity in the disk is calculated over a comparable range of scales. Simulations were run with isothermal, adiabatic, and adiabatic with radiative cooling characterized by a relatively short timescale. The isothermal approximation is good except in the vicinity of the strong second (inner) ring, and several snapshots from one case are shown in the figure below. Flocculent spiral segments are present before the collision, and these are compressed into dense knots in the ring wave. These knots are likely to be sites of vigorous star formation. In the strong rarefaction behind the outer ring most of the knots are radially stretched and sheared, giving rise to spoke-like features. A few dense knots are evidently very tightly bound, because they retain their coherence and are stretched relatively little through the rarefaction. This is in accord with evidence for continuing star formation in some spokes (Marcum, Appleton and Higdon 1992). The number and spacing of spokes is a direct function of the scale of the gravitational instability in the disk. Thus, the gravitational instability theory, together with the hypothesis that massive stars are only formed in dense knots of gas, can account for most of the distinct morphology of the Cartwheel.

Struck-Marcell, Curtis↗

Mountain-Top-to-Mountain-Top Optical Link Demonstration

A mountain-top-to-mountain-top optical communications demonstration was conducted between the JPL Table Mountain Facility (TMF), Wrightwood, California, and Strawberry Peak (SP), Lake Arrowhead, California, during the months of August and September of 2000. The link was nearly horizontal at an altitude of 2 km and spanned a range of 46.8 km. A 780-nm multibeam beacon broadcast from TMF was received by the JPL Optical Communications Demonstrator (OCD) located at SP. The received beacon was utilized as a pointing reference to retransmit an 852-nm communications laser beam, modulated at 400 Mb/s by a PN7 pseudo-random bit stream (PRBS) sequence. The long atmospheric path resulted in atmospheric-turbulence-induced angle-of-arrival fluctuations of the beacon at the OCD aperture. A .ne-steering control loop was used to track the resulting beacon centroid motion and update the pointing of the communications laser beam transmitted from SP to TMF. Fried parameters, or r0, inferred from focal spot sizes received at SP were 4 to 5 cm whereas, using the spot sizes received at TMF, they were 2 to 3 cm. In both cases, theory predicts larger r0 values. The predicted angle-of-arrival fluctuations compare well with measured rms displacements exhibited by the focal spots at either end of the link. An uncompensated error of ~1.1 rad in the x-axis and ~2 rad in the y-axis was obtained using centroid data logged by the OCD. Average bit-error rates of 10-5 were recorded for extended periods of time. An atmospheric coherence length r0 of 3 to 5 cm was inferred using the focal-plane spot size measured on the CCD tracking sensor and compared to a predicted value of 5 to 7 cm using reasonable atmospheric models. The irradiance bounds required for the CCD tracking sensor to perform centroiding was found to range from 2000 to 3000 integrated pixel counts, although a more reliable range was 600 to 3000, indicating a dynamic range of 6 to 11 dB. The motion of the spot on the focal plane was also recorded and yielded rms angle-of-arrival-induced focal-plane displacement of 9 to 11 m, compared to a predicted value of 7.8 to 11 m. The irradiance measurements made with the OCD clearly indicate that best tracking performance is obtained when the mean received signal is 2000 to 2200 counts. The best tracking performance resulted in an rms uncompensated error of 1.1 rad. The uncompensated error appeared to increase with either an increase or decrease in mean beacon-signal level. The rms uncompensated error determined by deriving the beacon displacement power spectral density from the beacon centroid-versustime data and the rejection function of the control loop yielded a higher value of 3.4 rad.

Biswas, A.↗

Waves in Radial Gravity Using Magnetic Fluid

Terrestrial laboratory experiments studying various fluid dynamical processes are constrained, by being in an Earth laboratory, to have a gravitational body force which is uniform and unidirectional. Therefore fluid free-surfaces are horizontal and flat. Such free surfaces must have a vertical solid boundary to keep the fluid from spreading horizontally along a gravitational potential surface. In atmospheric, oceanic, or stellar fluid flows that have a horizontal scale of about one-tenth the body radius or larger, sphericity is important in the dynamics. Further, fluids in spherical geometry can cover an entire domain without any sidewall effects, i.e. have truly periodic boundary conditions. We describe spherical body-force laboratory experiments using ferrofluid. Ferrofluids are dilute suspensions of magnetic dipoles, for example magnetite particles of order 10 nm diameter, suspended in a carrier fluid. Ferrofluids are subject to an additional body force in the presence of an applied magnetic field gradient. We use this body force to conduct laboratory experiments in spherical geometry. The present study is a laboratory technique improvement. The apparatus is cylindrically axisymmetric. A cylindrical ceramic magnet is embedded in a smooth, solid, spherical PVC ball. The geopotential field and its gradient, the body force, were made nearly spherical by careful choice of magnet height-to-diameter ratio and magnet size relative to the PVC ball size. Terrestrial gravity is eliminated from the dynamics by immersing the "planet" and its ferrofluid "ocean" in an immiscible silicone oil/freon mixture of the same density. Thus the earth gravity is removed from the dynamics of the ferrofluid/oil interface and the only dynamically active force there is the radial magnetic gravity. The entire apparatus can rotate, and waves are forced on the ferrofluid surface by exterior magnets. The biggest improvement in technique is in the wave visualization. Fluorescing dye is added to the oil/freon mixture and an argon ion laser generates a horizontal light that can be scanned vertically. Viewed from above, the experiment is a black circle with wave deformations surrounded by a light background. A contour of the image intensity at any light sheet position gives the surface of the ferrofluid "ocean" at that "latitude". Radial displacements of the waves as a function of longitude are obtained by subtracting the contour line positions from a no-motion contour at that laser sheet latitude. The experiments are run by traversing the forcing magnet with the laser sheet height fixed and images are frame grabbed to obtain a time-series at one latitude. The experiment is then re-run with another laser-sheet height to generate a full picture of the three-dimensional wave structure in the upper hemisphere of the ball as a function of time. We concentrate here on results of laboratory studies of waves that are important in Earth's atmosphere and especially the ocean. To get oceanic scaling in the laboratory, the experiment must rotate rapidly (4-second rotation period) so that the wave speed is slow compared to the planetary rotation speed as in the ocean. In the Pacific Ocean, eastward propagating Kelvin waves eventually run into the South American coast. Theory predicts that some of the wave energy should scatter into coastal-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate north and south along the coast. Some of this coastal wave energy might then scatter into mid-latitude Rossby waves that propagate back westward. Satellite observations of the Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature and height seem to show signatures of westward propagating mid-latitude Rossby waves, 5 to 10 years after the 1982-83 El Nino. The observational data is difficult to interpret unambiguously owing to the large range of motions that fill the ocean at shorter timescales. This series of reflections giving eastward, north- ward, and then westward traveling waves is observed cleanly in the laboratory experiments, confirming the theoretical expectations.

Ohlsen, D. R.↗

Electron density power spectrum in the local interstellar medium

Interstellar scintillation (ISS), fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of radio waves caused by scattering in the interstellar medium, is important as a diagnostic of interstellar plasma turbulence. ISS is also of interest because it is noise for other radio astronomical observations. The unifying concern is the power spectrum of the interstellar electron density. Here we use ISS observations through the nearby (less than or approximately =1 kpc) (ISM) to estimate the spectrum. From measurements of angular broadening of pulsars and extragalactic sources, decorrelation bandwidth of pulsars, refractive steering of features in pulsar dynamic spectra, dispersion measured fluctuations of pulsars, and refractive scintillation index measurements, we construct a composite structure function that is approximately power law over 2 x 10(exp 6) m less than scale less than 10(exp 13) m. The data are consistent with the structure function having a logarithmic slope versus baseline less than 2; thus there is a meaningful connection between scales in the radiowave fluctuation field and the scales in the electron density field causing the scattering. The data give an upper limit to the inner scale, l(sub o) less than or approximately 10(exp 8) m and are consistent with much smaller values. We construct a composite electron density spectrum that is approximately power law over at least the approximately = 5 decade wavenumber range 10(exp -13)/m less than wavenumber less than 10(exp -8)/m and that may extend to higher wavenumbers. The average spectral index of electron density over this wavenumber range is approximately = 3.7, very close to the value expected for a Kolmogorov process. The outer scale size, L(sub o), must be greater than or approximately = 10(exp 13) m (determined from dispersion measure fluctuations). When the ISS data are combined with measurements of differential Faraday rotation angle, and gradients in the average electron density, constraints can be put on the spectrum at much smaller wave numbers. The composite spectrum is consistent with a Kolmogorov-like power law over a huge range (10 or more decades) of spatial wavenumber with an infrared outer scale L(sub o) greater than or approximately 10(exp 18)m. This power-law subrange-expressed as ratio of outer to inner scales-is comparable to or larger than that of other naturally occurring turbulent fluids, such as the oceans or the solar wind. We outline some of the theories for generating and maintaining such a spectrum over this huge wavenumber range.

Armstrong, J. W.↗

Computational Analysis of Static and Dynamic Behaviour of Magnetic Suspensions and Magnetic Bearings

Static modelling of magnetic bearings is often carried out using magnetic circuit theory. This theory cannot easily include nonlinear effects such as magnetic saturation or the fringing of flux in air-gaps. Modern computational tools are able to accurately model complex magnetic bearing geometries, provided some care is exercised. In magnetic suspension applications, the magnetic fields are highly three-dimensional and require computational tools for the solution of most problems of interest. The dynamics of a magnetic bearing or magnetic suspension system can be strongly affected by eddy currents. Eddy currents are present whenever a time-varying magnetic flux penetrates a conducting medium. The direction of flow of the eddy current is such as to reduce the rate-of-change of flux. Analytic solutions for eddy currents are available for some simplified geometries, but complex geometries must be solved by computation. It is only in recent years that such computations have been considered truly practical. At NASA Langley Research Center, state-of-the-art finite-element computer codes, 'OPERA', 'TOSCA' and 'ELEKTRA' have recently been installed and applied to the magnetostatic and eddy current problems. This paper reviews results of theoretical analyses which suggest general forms of mathematical models for eddy currents, together with computational results. A simplified circuit-based eddy current model proposed appears to predict the observed trends in the case of large eddy current circuits in conducting non-magnetic material. A much more difficult case is seen to be that of eddy currents in magnetic material, or in non-magnetic material at higher frequencies, due to the lower skin depths. Even here, the dissipative behavior has been shown to yield at least somewhat to linear modelling. Magnetostatic and eddy current computations have been carried out relating to the Annular Suspension and Pointing System, a prototype for a space payload pointing and vibration isolation system, where the magnetic actuator geometry resembles a conventional magnetic bearing. Magnetostatic computations provide estimates of flux density within airgaps and the iron core material, fringing at the pole faces and the net force generated. Eddy current computations provide coil inductance, power dissipation and the phase lag in the magnetic field, all as functions of excitation frequency. Here, the dynamics of the magnetic bearings, notably the rise time of forces with changing currents, are found to be very strongly affected by eddy currents, even at quite low frequencies. Results are also compared to experimental measurements of the performance of a large-gap magnetic suspension system, the Large Angle Magnetic Suspension Test Fixture (LAMSTF). Eddy current effects are again shown to significantly affect the dynamics of the system. Some consideration is given to the ease and accuracy of computation, specifically relating to OPERA/TOSCA/ELEKTRA.

Britcher, Colin P.↗

Rao-Blackwellization for Adaptive Gaussian Sum Nonlinear Model Propagation

When dealing with imperfect data and general models of dynamic systems, the best estimate is always sought in the presence of uncertainty or unknown parameters. In many cases, as the first attempt, the Extended Kalman filter (EKF) provides sufficient solutions to handling issues arising from nonlinear and non-Gaussian estimation problems. But these issues may lead unacceptable performance and even divergence. In order to accurately capture the nonlinearities of most real-world dynamic systems, advanced filtering methods have been created to reduce filter divergence while enhancing performance. Approaches, such as Gaussian sum filtering, grid based Bayesian methods and particle filters are well-known examples of advanced methods used to represent and recursively reproduce an approximation to the state probability density function (pdf). Some of these filtering methods were conceptually developed years before their widespread uses were realized. Advanced nonlinear filtering methods currently benefit from the computing advancements in computational speeds, memory, and parallel processing. Grid based methods, multiple-model approaches and Gaussian sum filtering are numerical solutions that take advantage of different state coordinates or multiple-model methods that reduced the amount of approximations used. Choosing an efficient grid is very difficult for multi-dimensional state spaces, and oftentimes expensive computations must be done at each point. For the original Gaussian sum filter, a weighted sum of Gaussian density functions approximates the pdf but suffers at the update step for the individual component weight selections. In order to improve upon the original Gaussian sum filter, Ref. [2] introduces a weight update approach at the filter propagation stage instead of the measurement update stage. This weight update is performed by minimizing the integral square difference between the true forecast pdf and its Gaussian sum approximation. By adaptively updating each component weight during the nonlinear propagation stage an approximation of the true pdf can be successfully reconstructed. Particle filtering (PF) methods have gained popularity recently for solving nonlinear estimation problems due to their straightforward approach and the processing capabilities mentioned above. The basic concept behind PF is to represent any pdf as a set of random samples. As the number of samples increases, they will theoretically converge to the exact, equivalent representation of the desired pdf. When the estimated qth moment is needed, the samples are used for its construction allowing further analysis of the pdf characteristics. However, filter performance deteriorates as the dimension of the state vector increases. To overcome this problem Ref. [5] applies a marginalization technique for PF methods, decreasing complexity of the system to one linear and another nonlinear state estimation problem. The marginalization theory was originally developed by Rao and Blackwell independently. According to Ref. [6] it improves any given estimator under every convex loss function. The improvement comes from calculating a conditional expected value, often involving integrating out a supportive statistic. In other words, Rao-Blackwellization allows for smaller but separate computations to be carried out while reaching the main objective of the estimator. In the case of improving an estimator's variance, any supporting statistic can be removed and its variance determined. Next, any other information that dependents on the supporting statistic is found along with its respective variance. A new approach is developed here by utilizing the strengths of the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation in Ref. [2] and a marginalization approach used for PF methods found in Ref. [7]. In the following sections a modified filtering approach is presented based on a special state-space model within nonlinear systems to reduce the dimensionality of the optimization problem in Ref. [2]. First, the adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is explained and then the new marginalized adaptive Gaussian sum propagation is derived. Finally, an example simulation is presented.

state estimation↗

Geometrical evidence for dark matter: X-ray constraints on the mass of the elliptical galaxy NGC 720

We describe (1) a new test for dark matter and alternate theories of gravitation based on the relative geometries of the X-ray and optical surface brightness distributions and an assumed form for the potential, of the optical light, (2) a technique to measure the shapes of the total gravitating matter and dark matter of an ellipsoidal system which is insensitive to the precise value of the temperature of the gas and to modest temperature gradients, and (3) a new method to determine the ratio of dark mass to stellar mass that is dependent on the functional forms for the visible star, gas and dark matter distributions, but independent of the distance to the galaxy or the gas temperature. We apply these techniques to X-ray data from the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) of the optically flattened elliptical galaxy NGC 720; the optical isophotes have ellipticity epsilon approximately 0.40 extending out to approximately 120 sec. The X-ray isophotes are significantly elongated, epsilon = 0.20-0.30 for semimajor axis a approximately 100 sec. The major axes of the optical and X-ray isophotes are misaligned by approximately 30 deg +/- 15 deg. Spectral analysis of the X-ray data reveals no evidence of temperature gradients or anisotropies and demonstrates that a single-temperature plasma (T approximately 0.6 keV) having subsolar heavy element abundances and a two-temperature model having solar abundances describe the spectrum equally well. Considering only the relative geometries of the X-ray and optical surface brightness distributions and an assumed functional form for the potential of the optical light, we conclude that matter distributed like the optical light cannot produce the observed ellipticities of the X-ray isophotes, independent of the gas pressure, the gas temperature, and the value of the stellar mass; this comparison assumes a state of quasi-hydrostatic equilibrium so that the three-dimensional surfaces of the gas emissivity trace the three-dimensional isopotential surfaces -- we discuss the viability of this assumption for NGC 720. Milgrom's Modification of Newtonian Dynamics (MOND) cannot dispel this manifestation of dark matter. Hence, geometrical considerations require, without mention of pressure or temperature, the presence of an extended, massive dark matter halo in NGC 720. Employing essentially the technique of Buote & Canizares (1992; Buote 1992) we use the shape of the X-ray surface brightness to constrain the shape of the total gravitating matter. The total matter is modeled as either an oblate or prolate spheriod of constant shape and orientation having either a Ferrers (rho approximately r(exp -n)) or Hernquist density. Assuming the X-ray gas is in hydrostatic equilibrium, we construct a model X-ray gas distribution for various temperature profiles. We determine the ellipticity of the total gravitating matter to be epsilon approximately 0.50-0.70. Using the single-temperature model we estimate a total mass approximately (0.41-1.4) x 10(exp 12) h(sub 80) solar mass interior to the ellipsoid of semimajor axis 43.6 h(sub 80) kpc. Ferrers densities as steep as r(exp -3) do not fit the data, but the r(exp -2) and Hernquist models yield excellent fits. We estimate the mass distributions of the stars and the gas and fit the dark matter directly. For a given gas equation of state and functional forms for the visible stars, gas, and dark matter, these models yield a distance-independent and temperature-independent measurement of the ratio of dark mass to stellar mass M(sub DM)/M(sub stars). We estimate a minimum M(sub DM)/M(sub stars) greater than or equal to 4 which corresponds to a total mass slightly greater than that derived from the single-temperature models for distance D = 20h(sub 80) Mpc.

Buote, David A.↗

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗

Large Primtive Asteroids: Thermal and Dynamical Context

Primitiveasteroids, most of which are located in the outer belt and Jupiter’s Trojan clouds, provide information related to the origin and evolution of the solar system and the conditions in which the solar nebula was formed. These asteroids are widely thought to be the origin of the least-altered car-bonaceous chondrite that allow us to put crucial con-straints on the current dynamical and thermal theories of the formation and evolution of the early solar sys-tem. The nature of surface composition of large and low-albedo asteroids, like (1) Ceres, (10) Hygiea and (52) Europa, is still under intense debate and different interpretations have beenput forth to explain the ab-sorption features in these objects (e.g.,[1, 2, 3,4,5,6]). Laboratory and spectroscopic experiments on me-teorites that represent all nine carbonaceous chondrite types also found no spectral matches for these large asteroids (e.g.,[7]). Previous studies of asteroid Ceres (the largest primitive asteroid in the solar system) have been conducted to constrain and estimate its surface composition (e.g., [2, 5]). Using linear mixing,[2]found hydroxide brucite, serpentines, and carbonates, to be consistent with Ceres’ ground-based spectra.[5]estimated the surface composition of Ceres and found evidence of widespread NH3-phyllosilicates across its surface using best-fit solutions to Dawn’s NIR spectra. The presence of NH3-phyllosilicates implies that mate-rial from the outer solar system was incorporated into large primitive asteroids, either during their formation at great heliocentric distance or by incorporation of material transported into the Main Belt region. Here we presentnew largeand primitive asteroidsthat share the same spectral similaritieswith the largest asteroid in the solar system, Ceres.We also present the context of these new observations in terms oftheirthermal and dynamicalevolution.Large Primitive Asteroids: Dynamical and Thermal Context:Orbital Distribution of LargePrimitiveAsteroids: Constraining the mineralogy and surface composition of large primitive asteroids will place crucial con-straints on existing dynamical and thermal theories of the formation of the early solar system. We identified several additional asteroids in the Europa-like group in addition to asteroids Europa, Euphrosyne, and Patien-tia, that wereidentified in [8]using NASA IRTFtele-scope (e.g.,Figure 1). These new asteroids along with the already-observed Ceres-and Europa-like group members are localized in the 2.8 < a < 3.4 AU region and characterized by larger sizes, showing an interest-ing orbital distribution (Figure 2). Ceres-likeand Eu-ropa-like groups, which include the largest asteroids in the solar system, show an interesting orbital distribu-tion. These groups are located in the 2.6 < a < 3.6 AU region that contains the snow-line. The snow-line’s location may have been driftedinwards due to the disk’s cooling and evolution[9,10]. Recent dynamical models[11,12]suggested that a substantial fraction of primitive asteroids originated between or beyond the giant planets (a > 5 AU), where water ice would have been stable, and then implanted in the outer Main Belt region because of the giant planets’ growth.Figure 1. Two asteroids, 94 Aurora and 423 Diotima, showing spectra similar to asteroids (1)Ceres and (52)Europa.Thermal modeling and evolution of primitive aster-oids:Primitive water-rich asteroids are thought to be originally composed of mixtures of anhydrous materi-als and water ice that waslater melted by heating sources such as the decay of 26Al, reacting with anhy-drous materials to form H2O/OH-rich minerals. Calcu-lations of the evolution of the temperature and struc-ture of icy planetesimals were performedusing a 1D finite differences thermal evolution model[13, 14] for 26Al-heated planetesimals. In particular, thermally activated compaction due to hot pressing of bodies with an initially unconsolidated porous structure is included. An ice-rich initial composition that leads to a material dominated by phyllosilicates upon aqueous alteration (with 25 vol% H2O and a rock fraction that contains 85 vol% phyllosilicates and 15 vol% olivine upon aque-ous alteration, similar to CIand CM chondrites) was assumed. Atypical initial porosity of 40%[15] is re-duced following the change of the strain rate that is calculated as Voigt approximation from the strain rates of components[16]. Material properties (thermal con-ductivity, density, heat capacity, etc.) correspond to the composition assumed and are adjusted with tempera-ture and porosity. Melting of the water ice as well as water-rock separation are included[14]. Both short-and long-lived radionuclides are consideredas heat sources. Figure 3 shows the maximum temperature calculated as a function of radius and accretion time. A variety of internal structures is obtained, ranging from primordial (no melting of water ice) over partially melted or partially differentiated (melting of water ice, hydration, formation of a rocky core and water ocean below an undifferentiated layer) to completely differ-entiated ones (rocky core, water mantle, Enceladus-like case). The heating and differentiation of planetesi-mals is determined by the availability of 26Al, i.e., by the accretion time t0 relative to the formation of the calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs), such that maximum temperatures and structures vary stronglyfor t0< 6 Myr rel. to CAIs. However, for a later accre-tion only the size of the body determines its maximum tempera-ture and structure due to the nearly constant heating by long-lived radionuclides. Average densities of Ceres-and Europa-like group membersimply high-ly porous interiors and, consequently, relatively late accretion at t0> 3 Myr rel. to CAIs with a maximum temperature of < 600 K (Figure3)

D Takir↗

Aeolian Sand Transport in the Planetary Context: Respective Roles of Aerodynamic and Bed-Dilatancy Thresholds

The traditional view of aeolian sand transport generally estimates flux from the perspective of aerodynamic forces creating the airborne grain population, although it has been recognized that "reptation" causes a significant part of the total airborne flux; reptation involves both ballistic injection of grains into the air stream by the impact of saltating grains as well as the "nudging" of surface grains into a creeping motion. Whilst aerodynamic forces may initiate sand motion, it is proposed here that within a fully-matured grain cloud, flux is actually governed by two thresholds: an aerodynamic threshold, and a bed-dilatancy threshold. It is the latter which controls the reptation population, and its significance increases proportionally with transport energy. Because we only have experience with terrestrial sand transport, extrapolations of aeolian theory to Mars and Venus have adjusted only the aerodynamic factor, taking gravitational forces and atmospheric density as the prime variables in the aerodynamic equations, but neglecting reptation. The basis for our perspective on the importance of reptation and bed dilatancy is a set of experiments that were designed to simulate sand transport across the surface of a martian dune. Using a modified sporting crossbow in which a sand-impelling sabot replaced the bolt-firing mechanism, individual grains of sand were fired at loose sand targets with glancing angles typical of saltation impact; grains were projected at about 80 m/s to simulate velocities commensurate with those predicted for extreme martian aeolian conditions. The sabot impelling method permitted study of individual impacts without the masking effect of bed mobilization encountered in wind-tunnel studies. At these martian impact velocities, grains produced small craters formed by the ejection of several hundred grains from the bed. Unexpectedly, the craters were not elongated, despite glancing impact; the craters were very close to circular in planform. High-speed photography showed them to grow in both diameter and depth after the impactor had ricochetted from the crater site. The delayed response of the bed was "explosive" in nature, and created a miniature ejecta curtain spreading upward and outward for many centimeters for impact of 100-300 micron-diameter grains into similar material. Elastic energy deposited in the bed by the impacting grain creates a subsurface stress regime or "quasi-Boussinesq" compression field. Elastic recovery of the bed occurs by dilatancy; shear stresses suddenly convert the grains from closed to open packing, and grains are consequently able to eject themselves forcefully from the impact site. Random jostling of the grains causes radial homogenization of stress vectors and a resulting circular crater. There is a great temptation to draw parallels with cratering produced by meteorite impacts, but a rigorous search for common modelling ground between the two phenomena has not been conducted at this time. For every impact of an aerodynamically energized grain, there are several hundred grains ejected into the wind for the high-energy transport that might occur on Mars. Many of these grains will themselves become subject to the boundary layer's aerodynamic lift forces (their motion will not immediately die and add to the creep population), and these grains will become indistinguishable from those lifted entirely by aerodynamic forces. As each grain impacts the bed, it will eject even more grains into the flow. A cascading effect will take place, but because it must be finite in its growth, damping will occur as the number of grains set in motion causes mid-air collisions that prevent much of the impact energy from reaching the surface of the bed -thus creating a dynamic equilibrium in a high-density saltation cloud. It is apparent that for a given impact energy, the stress field permits a smaller volume of grains to convert to open packing as the size of the bed grains increases, or as the energy of the "percussive" grain decreases (by decrease in velocity or mass). Thus, the mass of the "repercussive" grain population that is ejected from the impact site becomes a function of the scale of the stress field in relation to the scale of the bed material (self-similarity being applicable if both bed size and energy are simultaneously adjusted). In other words, in a very high energy aeolian system where an aerodynamically raised grain can ballistically raise many more grains, the amount of material lifted into the wind becomes largely a function of a dilatancy threshold. If this threshold is exceeded, grains are repercussively injected into the saltation cloud. The "dilatancy threshold" may be defined in terms of the saltation percussive force required to convert the bed, through elastic response, from a closed to an open packing system. If open packing cannot be created, the grains cannot escape from the impact site, even though the elastic deformation and percussive force may be able to reorganize the grains with respect to one another. As the crossbow experiments showed, for an ever-increasing bed grain size, a point is reached when no material can be moved because the energy of the percussive grain is insufficient to dilate the relatively coarse bed. Although this seems to be stating the obvious -- that too little energy will not cause the bed to splash -- the consequences of exceeding the "splash threshold" by dilatancy are not so obvious for high-energy aeolian transport. It is noted that the force required to elastically dilate the bed has to overcome Coulombic grain attractions such as dipole-dipole coupling, dielectric, monopole, contact-induced dipole attractions, van der Waals forces, molecular monolayer capillary forces, as well as the mechanical interlocking frictional resistance of the grains. On Mars, it is predicted that the dilatancy threshold may be the prime control of grain flux. Additional information is contained in the original.

Marshall, J. R.↗