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At least 73 records · Page 4

Improving Time Step Convergence in an Atmosphere Model With Simplified Physics: The Impacts of Closure Assumption and Process Coupling

Convergence testing is a common practice in the development of dynamical cores of atmospheric models but is not as often exercised for the parameterization of sub-grid physics. An earlier study revealed that the stratiform cloud parameterizations in several predecessors of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) showed strong time-step sensitivity and slower-than-expected convergence when the model's time step was systematically refined. In this work, a simplified atmosphere model is configured that consists of the spectral-element dynamical core of the E3SM atmosphere model coupled with a large-scale condensation parameterization based on commonly used assumptions. This simplified model also resembles E3SM and its predecessors in the numerical implementation of process coupling and shows poor time-step convergence in short ensemble tests. We present a formal error analysis to reveal the expected time-step convergence rate and the conditions for obtaining such convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the root causes of convergence problems. We show that revisions in the process coupling and closure assumption help to improve convergence in short simulations using the simplified model; the same revisions applied to a full atmosphere model lead to significant changes in the simulated long-term climate. This work demonstrates that causes of convergence issues in atmospheric simulations can be understood by combining analyses from physical and mathematical perspectives. Addressing convergence issues can help to obtain a discrete model that is more consistent with the intended representation of the physical phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of the latitude of the westerly jet stream to climate forcing

The latitude of the westerly jet stream is influenced by a variety of climate forcings. Their effects often manifest as a tug-of-war between tropical forcing, characterized by tropical upper-tropospheric warming, and polar forcing, with a signature of Antarctic stratospheric cooling or Arctic amplification. Here we present a unified forcing-feedback frame work relating different climate forcings to their forced jet changes, in which the interactions between the westerly jet and synoptic storms are synthesized by a zonal advection feedback, analogous to the feedback framework for assessing climate sensitivity. This framework is supported by a prototype feedback analysis in the atmospheric dynamical core of a climate model with diverse thermal and mechanical forcings. Our analysis indicates that the latitude of a westerly jet is most sensitive to the thermally-induced jet speed changes near the tropopause. The jet shift also displays a larger sensitivity than linearity for the equatorward shift.

atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric variability, cli↗

The Flux-Differencing Discontinuous Galerkin Method Applied to an Idealized Fully Compressible Nonhydrostatic Dry Atmosphere

Dynamical cores used to study the circulation of the atmosphere employ various numerical methods ranging from finite-volume, spectral element, global spectral, and hybrid methods. In this work, we explore the use of Flux-Differencing Discontinuous Galerkin (FDDG) methods to simulate a fully compressible dry atmosphere at various resolutions. We show that the method offers a judicious compromise between high-order accuracy and stability for large-eddy simulations and simulations of the atmospheric general circulation. In particular, filters, divergence damping, diffusion, hyperdiffusion, or sponge-layers are not required to ensure stability; only the numerical dissipation naturally afforded by FDDG is necessary. We apply the method to the simulation of dry convection in an atmospheric boundary layer and in a global atmospheric dynamical core in the standard benchmark of Held and Suarez

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗

The UK Met Office GCM with a Sophisticated Radiation Scheme Applied to the Hot Jupiter HD 209458b

To study the complexity of hot Jupiter atmospheres revealed by observations of increasing quality, we have adapted the UK Met Office Global Circulation Model (GCM), the Unified Model (UM), to these exoplanets. The UM solves the full 3D Navier-Stokes equations with a height-varying gravity, avoiding the simplifications used in most GCMs currently applied to exoplanets. In this work we present the coupling of the UM dynamical core to an accurate radiation scheme based on the two-stream approximation and correlated-k method with state-of-the-art opacities from ExoMol. Our first application of this model is devoted to the extensively studied hot Jupiter HD 209458b. We derive synthetic emission spectra and phase curves, and compare them to both previous models also based on state-of-the-art radiative transfer, and to observations. We find a reasonable a agreement between observations and both our days side emission and hot spot offset, however, our night side emissions is too large. Overall our results are qualitatively similar to those found by Showman et al. (2009) with the SPARCMIT gcm, however, we note several quantitative differences: Our simulations show significant variation in the position of the hottest part of the atmosphere with pressure, as expected from simple timescale arguments, and in contrast to the vertical coherency found by Showman et al. (2009). We also see significant quantitative differences in calculated synthetic observations. Our comparisons strengthen the need for detailed intercomparisons of dynamical cores, radiation schemes and post-processing tools to understand these differences. This effort is necessary in order to make robust conclusions about these atmospheres based on GCM results.

radiation↗

Interaction of the Westerlies with the Tibetan Plateau in Determining the Mei-Yu Termination

This article explores how the termination of the mei-yu is dynamically linked to the westerlies impinging on the Tibetan Plateau. It is found that the mei-yu stage terminates when the maximum upper-tropospheric westerlies shift beyond the northern edge of the plateau, around 40°N. This termination is accompanied by the disappearance of tropospheric northerlies over northeastern China. The link between the transit of the jet axis across the northern edge of the plateau, the disappearance of northerlies, and termination of the mei-yu holds on a range of time scales from interannual through seasonal and pentad. Diagnostic analysis indicates that the weakening of the meridional moisture contrast and meridional wind convergence, mainly resulting from the disappearance of northerlies, causes the demise of the mei-yu front. The authors propose that the westerlies migrating north of the plateau and consequent weakening of the extratropical northerlies triggers the mei-yu termination. Model simulations are employed to test the causality between the jet and the orographic downstream northerlies by repositioning the northern edge of the plateau. As the plateau edge extends northward, orographic forcing on the westerlies strengthens, leading to persistent strong downstream northerlies and a prolonged mei-yu. Idealized simulations with a dry dynamical core further demonstrate the dynamical link between the weakening of orographically forced downstream northerlies with the positioning of the jet from south to north of the plateau. Changes in the magnitude of orographically forced stationary waves are proposed to explain why the downstream northerlies disappear when the jet axis migrates beyond the northern edge of the plateau.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High resolution measurements of core density collapse dynamics in LHD

The core density collapse (CDC) is an abrupt instability that degrades the performance of super dense core stellarator plasmas on the Large Helical Device (LHD). In LHD, CDCs have proved to be an operational limit in so-called outward-shifted configurations. New measurements with high time resolution Thomson scattering characterize dynamics of the instability in the core. The density profile is observed to collapse inwards, narrowing the density peak till the core itself collapses. A hot, radially localized feature is also observed in the electron temperature profile during the collapse and disappears within a few hundred microseconds of CDC onset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Vortex rings

The vortex-ring problem in fluid mechanics is examined generally in terms of formation, the steady state, the duration of the rings, and vortex interactions. The formation is studied by examining the generation of laminar and turbulent vortex rings and their resulting structures with attention given to the three stages of laminar ring development. Inviscid dynamics is addressed to show how core dynamics affects overall ring motion, and laminar vortex structures are described in two dimensions. Viscous and inviscid structures are related in terms of 'leapfrogging', head-on collisions, and collisions with a no-slip wall. Linear instability theory is shown to successfully describe observational data, although late stages in the breakdown are not completely understood. This study of vortex rings has important implications for key aerodynamic issues including sound generation, transport and mixing, and vortex interactions.

Shariff, Karim↗

Reconciling and Improving Formulations for Thermodynamics and Conservation Principles in Earth System Models (ESMs)

Abstract This paper provides a comprehensive derivation of the total energy equations for the atmospheric components of Earth System Models (ESMs). The assumptions and approximations made in this derivation are motivated and discussed. In particular, it is emphasized that closing the energy budget is conceptually challenging and hard to achieve in practice without resorting to ad hoc fixers. As a concrete example, the energy budget terms are diagnosed in a realistic climate simulation using a global atmosphere model. The largest total energy errors in this example are spurious dynamical core energy dissipation, thermodynamic inconsistencies (e.g., coupling parameterizations with the host model) and missing processes/terms associated with falling precipitation and evaporation (e.g., enthalpy flux between components). The latter two errors are not, in general, reduced by increasing horizontal resolution. They are due to incomplete thermodynamic and dynamic formulations. Future research directions are proposed to reconcile and improve thermodynamics formulations and conservation principles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Possibilities of Predicting Geomagnetic Secular Variation with Geodynamo Modeling

We use our MoSST core dynamics model and geomagnetic field at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) continued downward from surface observations to investigate possibilities of geomagnetic data assimilation, so that model results and current geomagnetic observations can be used to predict geomagnetic secular variation in future. As the first attempt, we apply data insertion technique to examine evolution of the model solution that is modified by geomagnetic input. Our study demonstrate that, with a single data insertion, large-scale poloidal magnetic field obtained from subsequent numerical simulation evolves similarly to the observed geomagnetic variation, regardless of the initial choice of the model solution (so long it is a well developed numerical solution). The model solution diverges on the time scales on the order of 60 years, similar to the time scales of the torsional oscillations in the Earth's core. Our numerical test shows that geomagnetic data assimilation is promising with our MoSST model.

Kuang, Wei-Jia↗

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Capturing Sub‐Kilometer Flood Inundation Dynamics During the California Rain‐on‐Snow Events of 2017

The severe impacts of rain‐on‐snow (ROS) extreme events have been widely recognized and studied. However, unlike hydrological processes, flood inundation dynamics and the relative contribution of rainfall and snowmelt during ROS events remain under‐investigated. We diagnosed and documented sub‐kilometer spatio‐temporal dynamics of flood inundation during the 2017 California ROS events, simulated by a 2‐dimensional hydrodynamic model, River Dynamical Core (RDycore). RDycore shows good performance in capturing fine‐scale flood inundation dynamics against gauge measurements (with a median correlation coefficient of 0.81) and satellite observations. On top of rainfall, snowmelt not only increases the mean maximum inundation depth (12.0%–25.1%), but also expands the total flooded area (19.9%–31.9%) and prolongs the mean flood duration (3.4%–7.1%) across the events. Our findings offer an explicit and accurate picture of when and where ROS flooding could occur and how snowmelt increases flood hazard, valuable for risk assessment and infrastructure planning.

Flood inundation↗

Geomagnetic Variability and Predictability

The Earth's magnetic field varies on time scales from seconds to millions of years. These variations can be measured directly by ground observatories and satellites, and indirectly through laboratories. They are from different electromagnetic processes in magnetosphere and ionosphere (external), ocean and crust (surface), and deep in the Earth's fluid outer core (internal). Of the measured magnetic signals, 95% is from the core, and is called the core field, or internal field. Variation of the core field, often called the geomagnetic secular variation (SV), is the manifestation of the magnetohydrodynamic processes in the core. Therefore, SV provides rich information on the core dynamical state that is then critical for understanding the geophysical mechanisms of the SV, the core-mantle interactions, and contribution of mass transport inside the core on Earth's gravity variation. Traditionally, the core state is probed via two independent methodologies: core flow inversion from the observed SV, and pure numerical dynamo simulation. The former is driven by observations, but does not include necessary interactions among physical variables; the latter is dynamically consistent, but is not constrained by any observation. Therefore, both are very limited in providing appropriate estimates of the core state. To avoid these limitations, a new approach, geomagnetic data assimilation, appears recently. In this approach, simulation results (model forecasts) are constantly corrected with observations, the corrected solutions (analysis), are then used as the initial conditions to make more accurate forecasts of future. Recent studies have demonstrated successfully that assimilation solutions are different from those of free running models. These new solutions are better estimates of the core state, and have been used to provide accurate prediction of SV for the period from 2010 to 2015. This prediction is part of the IGRF field model for international community applications.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Magnetic Probing of Core Geodynamics

To better understand geomagnetic theory and observation, we can use spatial magnetic spectra for the main field and secular variation to test core dynamical hypotheses against seismology. The hypotheses lead to theoretical spectra which are fitted to observational spectra. Each fit yields an estimate of the radius of Earth's core and uncertainty. If this agrees with the seismologic value, then the hypothesis passes the test. A new way to obtain theoretical spectra extends the hydromagnetic scale analysis of Benton to scale-variant field and flow. For narrow scale flow and a dynamically weak field by the top of Earth's core, this yields a generalized Stevenson-McLeod spectrum for the core-source field, and a secular variation spectrum modulated by a cubic polynomial in spherical harmonic degree n. The former passes the tests. The latter passes many tests, but does not describe rapid dipole decline and quadrupole rebound; some tests suggest it is a bit hard, or rich in narrow scale range. In a core geodynamo, motion of the fluid conductor does work against the Lorentz force. This converts kinetic into magnetic energy which, in turn, is lost to heat via Ohmic dissipation. In the analysis at length-scale 1/k, if one presumes kinetic energy is converted in either eddy-overturning or magnetic free-decay time-scales, then Kolmogorov or other spectra in conflict with observational spectra can result. Instead, the rate work is done roughly balances the dissipation rate, which is consistent with small-scale flow. The conversion time-scale depends on dynamical constraints. These are summarized by the magnetogeostrophic vertical vorticity balance by the top of the core, which includes anisotropic effects of rotation, the magnetic field, and the core-mantle boundary. The resulting theoretical spectra for the core-source field and its SV are far more compatible with observation. The conversion time-scale of order 120 years is pseudo-scale-invariant. Magnetic spectra of other planets may differ; however, if a transition to non-conducting fluid hydrogen in Jupiter acts as a barrier to vertical flow, as well as current, then the shape of the jovi-magnetic spectrum could be remarkably Earth-like.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗

Magnectic Probing of Core Geodynamics

To better understand geomagnetic theory and observation, we can use spatial magnetic spectra for the main field and secular variation to test core dynamical hypotheses against seismology. The hypotheses lead to theoretical spectra which are fitted to observational spectra. Each fit yields an estimate of the radius of Earth s core and uncertainty. If this agrees with the seismologic value, then the hypotheses pass the test. A new way to obtain theoretical spectra extends the hydromagnetic scale analysis of Benton to scale-variant field and flow. For narrow scale flow and a dynamically weak field by the top of Earth s core, this yields a JGR-PI, and a secular variation spectrum modulated by a cubic polynomial in spherical harmonic degree n. The former passes the tests. The latter passes many tests, but does not describe rapid dipole decline and quadrupole rebound; some tests suggest it is a bit hard, or rich in narrow scale change.In a core geodynamo, motion of the fluid conductor does work against the Lorentz force. This converts kinetic into magnetic energy which, in turn, is lost to heat via Ohmic dissipation. In the analysis at length- scale l/k, if one presumes kinetic energy is converted in either eddy- overturning or magnetic free-decay time-scales, then Kolmogorov or other spectra in conflict with observational spectra can result. Instead, the rate work is done roughly balances the dissipation rate, which is consistent with small scale flow. The conversion time-scale depends on dynamical constraints. These are summarized by the magneto- geostrophic vertical vorticity balance by the top of the core, which includes anisotropic effects of rotation, the magnetic field, and the core-mantle boundary. The resulting theoretical spectra for the core- source field and its SV are far more compatible with observation. The conversion time-scale of order 120 years is pseudo-scale-invariant. Magnetic spectra of other planets may differ; however, if a transition to non-conducting fluid hydrogen in Jupiter acts as barrier to vertical flow, as well as current, then the shape of the jovi-magnetic spectrum could be remarkably Earth-like.

Voorhies, Coerte↗

Flight validation of a pulsed smoke flow visualization system

A flow visualization scheme, designed to measure vortex fluid dynamics on research aircraft, was validated in flight. Strake vortex trajectories and axial core velocities were determined using pulsed smoke, high-speed video images, and semiautomated image edge detection hardware and software. Smoke was pulsed by using a fast-acting three-way valve. After being redesigned because of repeatedly jamming in flight, the valve shuttle operated flawlessly during the last two tests. A 25-percent scale, Gothic strake was used to generate vortex over the wing of a GA-7 Cougar and was operated at a local angle of attack of 22 degrees and Reynolds number of approximately 7.8 x 10(exp 5)/ft. Maximum axial velocities measured in the vortex core were between 1.75 and 1.95 times the freestream velocity. Analysis of the pulsed smoke system's affect on forebody vortices indicates that the system may reorient the forebody vortex system; however, blowing momentum coefficients normally used will have no appreciable affect on the leading-edge extension vortex system. It is recommended that a similar pulsed smoke system be installed on the F/A-18 High Angle Research Vehicle and that this approach be used to analyze vortex core dynamics during the remainder of its high-angle-of-attack research flights.

Ward, Donald T.↗

Density Anomalies in the Mantle and the Gravitational Core-Mantle Interaction

Seismic studies suggest that the bulk of the mantle is heterogeneous, with density variations in depth as well as in horizontal directions (latitude and longitude). This density variation produces a three- dimensional gravity field throughout the Earth. On the other hand, the core density also varies in both time and space, due to convective core flow. Consequently, the fluid outer core and the solid mantle interact gravitationally due to the mass anomalies in both regions. This gravitational core-mantle interaction could play a significant role in exchange of angular momentum between the core and the mantle, and thus the change in Earth's rotation on time scales of decades and longer. Aiming at estimating the significance of the gravitational core-mantle interaction on Earth's rotation variation, we introduce in our MoSST core dynamics model a heterogeneous mantle, with a density distribution derived from seismic results. In this model, the core convection is driven by the buoyancy forces. And the density variation is determined dynamically with the convection. Numerical simulation is carried out with different parameter values, intending to extrapolate numerical results for geophysical implications.

Kuang, Weijia↗

The Representation of Tropical Cyclones Within the Global William Putman Non-Hydrostatic Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) at Cloud-Permitting Resolutions

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-S), an earth system model developed in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), has integrated the non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. The extension to a non-hydrostatic dynamical framework and the quasi-uniform cubed-sphere geometry permits the efficient exploration of global weather and climate modeling at cloud permitting resolutions of 10- to 4-km on today's high performance computing platforms. We have explored a series of incremental increases in global resolution with GEOS-S from irs standard 72-level 27-km resolution (approx.5.5 million cells covering the globe from the surface to 0.1 hPa) down to 3.5-km (approx. 3.6 billion cells).

Putman, William M.↗