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Results for “ecosystem carbon persistence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Fast-decaying plant litter enhances soil carbon in temperate forests but not through microbial physiological traits

Abstract Conceptual and empirical advances in soil biogeochemistry have challenged long-held assumptions about the role of soil micro-organisms in soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics; yet, rigorous tests of emerging concepts remain sparse. Recent hypotheses suggest that microbial necromass production links plant inputs to SOC accumulation, with high-quality (i.e., rapidly decomposing) plant litter promoting microbial carbon use efficiency, growth, and turnover leading to more mineral stabilization of necromass. We test this hypothesis experimentally and with observations across six eastern US forests, using stable isotopes to measure microbial traits and SOC dynamics. Here we show, in both studies, that microbial growth, efficiency, and turnover are negatively (not positively) related to mineral-associated SOC. In the experiment, stimulation of microbial growth by high-quality litter enhances SOC decomposition, offsetting the positive effect of litter quality on SOC stabilization. We suggest that microbial necromass production is not the primary driver of SOC persistence in temperate forests. Factors such as microbial necromass origin, alternative SOC formation pathways, priming effects, and soil abiotic properties can strongly decouple microbial growth, efficiency, and turnover from mineral-associated SOC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Carbon budget of the Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site: pattern, process, and response to global change

How, where, and why carbon (C) moves into and out of an ecosystem through time are long-standing questions in biogeochemistry. Here, we bring together hundreds of thousands of C-cycle observations at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts, USA, a mid-latitude landscape dominated by 80–120-yr-old closed-canopy forests. These data answered four questions: (1) where and how much C is presently stored in dominant forest types; (2) what are current rates of C accrual and loss; (3) what biotic and abiotic factors contribute to variability in these rates; and (4) how has climate change affected the forest’s C cycle? Harvard Forest is an active C sink resulting from forest regrowth following land abandonment. Soil and tree biomass comprise nearly equal portions of existing C stocks. Net primary production (NPP) averaged 680–750 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 ; belowground NPP contributed 38–47% of the total, but with large uncertainty. Mineral soil C measured in the same inventory plots in 1992 and 2013 was too heterogeneous to detect change in soil-C pools; however, radiocarbon data suggest a small but persistent sink of 10–30 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . Net ecosystem production (NEP) in hardwood stands averaged ~300 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 . NEP in hemlock-dominated forests averaged ~450 g C·m –2 ·yr –1 until infestation by the hemlock woolly adelgid turned these stands into a net C source. Since 2000, NPP has increased by 26%. For the period 1992–2015, NEP increased 93%. The increase in mean annual temperature and growing season length alone accounted for ~30% of the increase in productivity. Interannual variations in GPP and NEP were also correlated with increases in red oak biomass, forest leaf area, and canopy-scale light-use efficiency. Compared to long-term global change experiments at the Harvard Forest, the C sink in regrowing biomass equaled or exceeded C cycle modifications imposed by soil warming, N saturation, and hemlock removal. Furthermore, the results of this synthesis and comparison to simulation models suggest that forests across the region are likely to accrue C for decades to come but may be disrupted if the frequency or severity of biotic and abiotic disturbances increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Warming induces unexpectedly high soil respiration in a wet tropical forest

Abstract Tropical forests are a dominant regulator of the global carbon cycle, exchanging more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other terrestrial biome. Climate models predict unprecedented climatic warming in tropical regions in the coming decades; however, in situ field warming studies are severely lacking in tropical forests. Here we present results from an in situ warming experiment in Puerto Rico, where soil respiration responses to + 4 o C warming were assessed half-hourly for a year. Soil respiration rates were 42-204% higher in warmed relative to ambient plots, representing some of the highest soil respiration rates reported for any terrestrial ecosystem. While respiration rates were significantly higher in the warmed plots, the temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) was 71.7% lower, pointing to a mechanistic shift. Even with reduced Q 10 , if observed soil respiration rates persist in a warmer world, the feedback to future climate could be considerably greater than previously predicted or observed.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Merging Analytic Collaborative Frameworks with New Observing Strategies Toward a Digital Twin: Earth – Episodic Pulse Event Impacts on Ocean Carbon Cycle as an Example

Virtual representations of the Earth will allow us to address some of the most critical environmental issues of our time. Here, we show the first steps toward representation of riverine, estuarine, and coastal carbon processes to enable scenario driven “what-if” analyses of the carbon system and human footprint. Excess sediment and nutrient runoff from land-based human activities impact water quality and can pose serious threats to coastal and marine ecosystems. Episodic pulse events, such as extreme precipitation events, can increase the amount of nutrients entering estuaries and coastal regions, potentially leading to large phytoplankton blooms followed by anoxic conditions. Consequences of coastal runoff are predicted to increase with the higher intensity and frequency of extreme events. Beyond the threat to coastal ecosystems, recent findings suggest these episodic pulses might play a significant role for biological production influencing regional and global carbon fluxes and budgets. An improved understanding of these events through optimal, dynamic observing strategies will increase our knowledge of the land-ocean continuum and how regional events and nutrient fluxes affect the carbon cycle and ocean ecosystem. This conceptual framework enables focused science investigations by pairing data analytics and artificial intelligence tools (otherwise termed an Analytic Center Framework, ACF) with targeted measurement acquisition through distributed sensing and intelligent asset tasking (or New Observing Strategies, NOS). This NOS and ACF iterative approach acquires and integrates complementary and coincident satellite, in-situ and model data to build a more complete and in-depth picture of science phenomena. Specifically, Apache Science Data Analytic Platform (SDAP) is extended to incorporate relevant datasets for data access, harmonized analysis, and anomaly detection. When conditions are met for a likely pulse event, NASA’s D-SHIELD (Distributed Spacecraft with Heuristic Intelligence to Enable Logistical Decisions) tool is triggered to optimize asset overpass frequency and schedule observations for persistent monitoring. Targeted data is ingested by SDAP for enhanced investigation via iterative analysis until the trigger criteria is no longer met - steps toward a digital twin.

Laura Rogers↗
DOE OSTI2022

We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems

Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO 2 , the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A dynamic microbial sulfur cycle in a serpentinizing continental ophiolite

Summary Serpentinization is the hydration and oxidation of ultramafic rock, which occurs as oceanic lithosphere is emplaced onto continental margins (ophiolites), and along the seafloor as faulting exposes this mantle‐derived material to circulating hydrothermal fluids. This process leads to distinctive fluid chemistries as molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) and hydroxyl ions (OH − ) are produced and reduced carbon compounds are mobilized. Serpentinizing ophiolites also serve as a vector to transport sulfur compounds from the seafloor onto the continents. We investigated hyperalkaline, sulfur‐rich, brackish groundwater in a serpentinizing continental ophiolite to elucidate the role of sulfur compounds in fuelling in situ microbial activities. Here we illustrate that key sulfur‐cycling taxa, including Dethiobacter , Desulfitispora and ‘ Desulforudis ’, persist throughout this extreme environment. Biologically catalysed redox reactions involving sulfate, sulfide and intermediate sulfur compounds are thermodynamically favourable in the groundwater, which indicates they may be vital to sustaining life in these characteristically oxidant‐ and energy‐limited systems. Furthermore, metagenomic and metatranscriptomic analyses reveal a complex network involving sulfate reduction, sulfide oxidation and thiosulfate reactions. Our findings highlight the importance of the complete inorganic sulfur cycle in serpentinizing fluids and suggest sulfur biogeochemistry provides a key link between terrestrial serpentinizing ecosystems and their submarine heritage.

Sabuda, Mary C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

ENVnet provides a global molecular resource of dissolved organic matter

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is an important component of Earth's carbon cycle and one of the planet's most chemically diverse pools, yet the molecular structures of its constituents remain largely unresolved. This limitation has hindered our ability to link DOM composition to microbial processes and ecosystem function. Here we present ENVnet, a global molecular repository built from tandem mass spectrometry data collected across 13 terrestrial and aquatic environment types, including 419 newly generated samples that expand publicly available DOM metabolomics data and cover previously underrepresented environments. By computationally deconvolving chimeric mass spectra, a longstanding challenge in environmental metabolomics, we recover high-quality fragmentation data for >22,000 distinct molecular features (defined by a specific precursor mass and fragmentation pattern). Using ENVnet, we uncover conserved and environment-specific molecular patterns in DOM composition and underlying biogeochemical processes. We also use molecular features encoded in ENVnet to train predictive models of DOM persistence, allowing molecular-level assessment of microbial turnover in independent systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

SoDaH: the SOils DAta Harmonization database, an open-source synthesis of soil data from research networks, version 1.0

Data collected from research networks present opportunities to test theories and develop models about factors responsible for the long-term persistence and vulnerability of soil organic matter (SOM). Synthesizing datasets collected by different research networks presents opportunities to expand the ecological gradients and scientific breadth of information available for inquiry. Synthesizing these data is challenging, especially considering the legacy of soil data that have already been collected and an expansion of new network science initiatives. To facilitate this effort, here we present the SOils DAta Harmonization database (SoDaH; https://lter.github.io/som-website, last access: 22 December 2020), a flexible database designed to harmonize diverse SOM datasets from multiple research networks. SoDaH is built on several network science efforts in the United States, but the tools built for SoDaH aim to provide an open-access resource to facilitate synthesis of soil carbon data. Moreover, SoDaH allows for individual locations to contribute results from experimental manipulations, repeated measurements from long-term studies, and local- to regional-scale gradients across ecosystems or landscapes. Finally, we also provide data visualization and analysis tools that can be used to query and analyze the aggregated database. The SoDaH v1.0 dataset is archived and available at https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/9733f6b6d2ffd12bf126dc36a763e0b4 (Wieder et al., 2020).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shrubs Strongly Influence Snow Properties in Two Subarctic Watersheds

Understanding changes in snow distribution in permafrost ecosystems is fundamental to predicting their response to future climate change. The expansion of tall shrubs into tundra ecosystems can trap snow and insulate permafrost ecosystems during the winter, but the overall insulation effect is dependent upon many ecosystem properties. To study shrub–snow–ground interactions, small temperature sensors were deployed at two research sites on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska, USA, during the 2019–2020 winter. Snow temperatures were used to extrapolate multiple metrics, including freezing n-factors, the snow insulation effect, snow cover duration, and the length of the snowmelt period. Statistical and spatial analysis showed that shrub patches were a dominant control on all snow metrics. Within shrub patches, average ground temperatures were 2.1°C warmer, snow persisted 50 days longer, snow insulation was double, and a longer, later spring snowmelt period occurred compared to nonshrubby areas. Site-level differences contributed relatively little to variation in snow metrics, indicating that shrub presence is an overarching driver of snow–ground interactions at the locations examined. Shrub expansion, which is anticipated under climate change, will strongly impact future permafrost distribution and Arctic energy, water, and carbon cycles through snow–shrub–ground feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Arctic Plant Functional Types in a Land Surface Model Using Above‐ and Belowground Field Observations

Abstract Accurate simulations of high‐latitude ecosystems are critical for confident Earth system model (ESM) projections of carbon cycle feedbacks to global climate change. Land surface model components of ESMs, including the E3SM Land Model (ELM), simulate vegetation growth and ecosystem responses to changing climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by grouping heterogeneous vegetation into like sets of plant functional types (PFTs). Many such models represent high‐latitude vegetation using only two PFTs (shrub and grass), thereby missing the diversity of vegetation growth forms and functional traits in the Arctic. Here, we use field observations of biomass and leaf traits across a gradient of plant communities on the Seward Peninsula in northwest Alaska to replace the original ELM configuration for the first time with nine Arctic‐specific PFTs. The newly developed PFTs include: (1) nonvascular mosses and lichens, (2) deciduous and evergreen shrubs of various height classes, including an alder PFT, (3) graminoids, and (4) forbs. Improvements relative to the original model configuration included greater belowground biomass allocation, persistent fine roots and rhizomes of nonwoody plants, and better representation of variability in total plant biomass across sites with varying plant communities and depth to bedrock. Simulations through 2100 using the RCP8.5 climate scenario and constant PFT fractional areas showed alder‐dominated plant communities gaining more biomass and lichen‐dominated communities gaining less biomass compared to default PFTs. Our results highlight how representing the diversity of arctic vegetation and confronting models with measurements from varied plant communities improves the representation of arctic vegetation in terrestrial ecosystem models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate

Soil microbes strongly influence the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, which globally stores ~2,000 PgC. Specifically, the balance between microbial heterotrophic respiration (R H ), which degrades SOC, and plant–microbe interactions that stabilize SOC determines whether terrestrial ecosystems are a net source or sink of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Here, in this Review, we evaluate how climate change alters these competing processes. R H is approximately half of total soil respiration, at ~50 PgC yr −1 , with 70% occurring in topsoils. Warming accelerates microbial metabolism, with a 10 °C temperature increase estimated to raise R H by ~50%, an effect that is particularly strong in Arctic soils. Warming also reduces soil moisture, further modulating R H , which responds nonlinearly to soil moisture, being limited by saturation and desiccation and meeting a maximum at intermediate levels. Consequently, R H is highly sensitive to future precipitation changes and drought. However, soil management strategies could enhance SOC stocks and persistence under climate change. Bacterial and fungal inoculants can promote SOC production and stabilization, while deep-rooting plants increase SOC inputs to deeper layers that experience lower R H . Agricultural practices and biochar amendments can also enhance SOC and reduce R H . Expanding field trials across regions, climates and soil types would improve empirical understanding of these responses and support better representation of R H in predictive models, enabling more accurate assessments of climate impacts on SOC storage.

Jansson, Janet K. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2022

Patterns and controls on island‐wide aboveground biomass accumulation in second‐growth forests of Puerto Rico

Abstract Understanding the heterogeneity of biomass accumulation in second‐growth tropical forests following land use abandonment is important for informing ecosystem carbon models and forest restoration efforts. There is an urgent need for a broad sample of second‐growth forests to enhance our knowledge of carbon accumulation in human‐dominated landscapes, especially for older forests. Puerto Rico has predominantly second‐growth forests, ranging in age from approximately 25 to more than 80 years. We used an island‐wide sample of airborne lidar from the NASA Goddard Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G‐LiHT) Airborne Imager collected on March 2017, forest inventory data, and data on forest age, precipitation, soils, and land use to estimate aboveground biomass stocks in moist and wet, second‐growth tropical forests. Biomass accumulation rates in Puerto Rico were lower, on average, than in other Neotropical forests. Median biomass across >16,700 ha of older second‐growth forests was 105 Mg ha −1 , and sampled biomass rarely surpassed 250 Mg ha −1 . Differences in biomass by age were large and persistent across different substrates and land uses, with a plateau in the pattern of island‐wide biomass accumulation after about 33 years. A spatial regression model showed that multiple factors were related to biomass accumulation, including time since abandonment, geologic substrate, past land use as coffee or pasture, precipitation, topographic wetness index, and slope. Our findings have important consequences for the total carbon storage and expected climate mitigation benefits of large‐scale reforestation efforts, and highlight the value of airborne lidar for quantifying biomass variability in complex tropical landscapes. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Canopy structure modulates the sensitivity of subalpine forest stands to interannual snowpack and precipitation variability

A declining spring snowpack is expected to have widespread effects on montane and subalpine forests in western North America and across the globe. The way that tree water demands respond to this change will have important impacts on forest health and downstream water subsidies. Here, we present data from a network of sap velocity sensors and xylem water isotope measurements from three common tree species (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa and Populus tremuloides) across a hillslope transect in a subalpine watershed in the Upper Colorado River basin. We use these data to compare tree- and stand-level responses to the historically high spring snowpack but low summer rainfall of 2019 against the low spring snowpack but high summer rainfall amounts of 2021 and 2022. From the sap velocity data, we found that only 40 % of the trees showed an increase in cumulative transpiration in response to the large snowpack year (2019), illustrating the absence of a common response to interannual spring snowpack variability. The trees that increased water use during the year with the large spring snowpack were all found in dense canopy stands – irrespective of species – while trees in open-canopy stands were more reliant on summer rains and, thus, more active during the years with modest snow and higher summer rain amounts. Using the sap velocity data along with supporting measurements of soil moisture and snow depth, we propose three mechanisms that lead to stand density modulating the tree-level response to changing seasonality of precipitation: Topographically mediated convergence zones have consistent access to recharge from snowmelt which supports denser stands with high water demands that are more reliant and sensitive to changing snow. Interception of summer rain in dense stands reduces the throughfall of summer rain to surface soils, limiting the sensitivity of the dense stands to changes in summer rain. Shading in dense stands allows the snowpack to persist deeper into the growing season, providing high local reliance on snow during the fore-summer (early-summer) drought period. Combining data generated from natural gradients in stand density, like this experiment, with results from controlled forest-thinning experiments can be used to develop a better understanding of the responses of forested ecosystems to futures with reduced spring snowpack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Patterns and Controls on Island-Wide Aboveground Biomass Accumulation in Second-Growth Forests of Puerto Rico

Understanding the heterogeneity of biomass accumulation in second-growth tropical forests following land use abandonment is important for informing ecosystem carbon models and forest restoration efforts. There is an urgent need for a broad sample of second-growth forests to enhance our knowledge of carbon accumulation in human-dominated landscapes, especially for older forests. Puerto Rico has predominantly second-growth forests, ranging in age from approximately 25 to more than 80 years. We used an island-wide sample of airborne lidar from the NASA Goddard Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager collected on March 2017, forest inventory data, and data on forest age, precipitation, soils, and land use to estimate aboveground biomass stocks in moist and wet, second-growth tropical forests. Biomass accumulation rates in Puerto Rico were lower, on average, than in other Neotropical forests. Median biomass across >16,700 ha of older second-growth forests was 105 Mg ha−1, and sampled biomass rarely surpassed 250 Mg ha−1. Differences in biomass by age were large and persistent across different substrates and land uses, with a plateau in the pattern of island-wide biomass accumulation after about 33 years. A spatial regression model showed that multiple factors were related to biomass accumulation, including time since abandonment, geologic substrate, past land use as coffee or pasture, precipitation, topographic wetness index, and slope. Our findings have important consequences for the total carbon storage and expected climate mitigation benefits of large-scale reforestation efforts, and highlight the value of airborne lidar for quantifying biomass variability in complex tropical landscapes.

Sebastián Martinuzzi↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire impact on soil microbiome life history traits and roles in ecosystem carbon cycling

Abstract Wildfires, which are increasing in frequency and severity with climate change, reduce soil microbial biomass and alter microbial community composition and function. The soil microbiome plays a vital role in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling, but its complexity makes it challenging to predict post-wildfire soil microbial dynamics and resulting impacts on ecosystem biogeochemistry. The application of biogeochemically relevant conceptual trait-based frameworks to the soil microbiome can distill this complexity, enabling enhanced predictability of soil microbiome recovery following wildfire and subsequent impacts to biogeochemical cycles. Conceptual frameworks that have direct links to soil C and N cycling have been developed for the soil microbiome; the Y-A-S framework overviews soil microbiome life history strategies that have tradeoffs with one another and others have proposed frameworks specific to wildfire. Here, we aimed to delineate post-wildfire changes of bacterial traits in western US coniferous forests to inform how severe wildfire influences soil microbiome recovery and resultant biogeochemical cycling. We utilized a comprehensive metagenome-assembled genome catalog from post-wildfire soils representing 1 to 11 years following low- and high-severity burning to identify traits that enable the persistence of microbial taxa in burned soils and influence ecosystem C and N cycling. We found that high-severity wildfire initially selects for fast growers and, up to a decade post-fire, taxa that invest in genes for acquiring diverse resources from the external environment, which in combination could increase soil C losses. This work begins to disentangle how climate change–induced shifts in wildfire behavior might alter microbially mediated soil biogeochemical cycling.

Nelson, Amelia R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing effects of invasive fire ants and disturbance on ant communities of the longleaf pine ecosystem

Invasive species and habitat disturbance are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and ecological change. Their individual effects, however, are difficult to disentangle because invasion and disturbance are often intimately linked. Here we test alternative hypotheses to determine if the invasive red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, is a ‘driver’ or simply a ‘passenger’ of ecological change in a longleaf pine ecosystem. We randomly assigned treatments of (1) unmanipulated, (2) soil disturbance, (3) fire ant removal and (4) soil disturbance + fire ant removal to experimental blocks and measured how ant communities changed over 2 years in thirty-six 15-m 2 plots. Additionally, fire ant abundance in removal plots averaged 42% lower in pitfall traps and 95% lower on baits compared to unmanipulated, control plots. Species richness of co-occurring ants also decreased 42% in removal plots, with significant changes in community composition. Soil disturbance alone did not affect ant communities. Fire ant diet breadth—measured using carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes—increased up to 4.7-fold in soil disturbance + removal plots (i.e. 0.84‰ 2 to 3.94‰ 2 ). While non-target impacts of the fire ant removal treatment complicate interpretation, our results suggest fire ants follow an alternative ‘interacting drivers’ model in which partial recovery of some species occurs when populations of an invasive species are reduced. Further recovery of native ants may be limited by persisting, landscape-level effects of fire ants suppressing co-occurring ants below historical levels.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗