Results for “effort estimation” — Page 4

NASA NTRS2012

Integrating High-Resolution Taskable Imagery into a Sensorweb for Automatic Space-Based Monitoring of Flooding in Thailand

Several space-based assets (Terra, Aqua, Earth Observing One) have been integrated into a sensorweb to monitor flooding in Thailand. In this approach, the Moderate Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) data from Terra and Aqua is used to perform broad-scale monitoring to track flooding at the regional level (250m/pixel) and EO-1 is autonomously tasked in response to alerts to acquire higher resolution (30m/pixel) Advanced Land Imager (ALI) data. This data is then automatically processed to derive products such as surface water extent and volumetric water estimates. These products are then automatically pushed to organizations in Thailand for use in damage estimation, relief efforts, and damage mitigation. More recently, this sensorweb structure has been used to request imagery, access imagery, and process high-resolution (several m to 30m), targetable asset imagery from commercial assets including Worldview-2, Ikonos, Radarsat-2, Landsat-7, and Geo-Eye-1. We describe the overall sensorweb framework as well as new workflows and products made possible via these extensions.

sensorweb operations↗

NASA NTRS2022

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Green’s Function Sensor Fusion Approach for Evaluating Spacecraft Entry Heating From on-Board Thermal Instrumentation

During atmospheric entry, distributed thermal measurements are critical to enable the evaluation of heat loads on spacecraft thermal protection systems (TPS). In recent space exploration missions, Schmidt-Boelter-type heat flux gauges have been integrated into the TPS alongside conventional temperature measurement instrumentation to measure total (convective and radiative) and radiative heat transfer rates1,2. While direct heat flux sensors (HFS) are able to provide valuable information detailing the thermal loads experienced by spacecraft, the interpretation of these measurements in unsteady, convective environments requires a correction factor to account for local heating augmentations at the cold wall HFS surface2,3. Current efforts to estimate cold wall correction factors, and thus recover the hot wall TPS heat flux, rely on time-marching computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations2. Simulation-based methods are susceptible to large uncertainties, however, as they require estimations of vehicle trajectory, gas kinetics, wall catalysis models, and other flight conditions as input parameters2,4. Furthermore, CFD simulations are computationally expensive and cannot efficiently survey all possible entry scenarios, exacerbating the uncertainty of reconstructed hot wall heat flux values. These drawbacks motivate the development of alternative hot wall heat flux reconstruction methods that are not reliant on CFD-based correction factors.

Kenneth McAfee↗

NASA NTRS1985

Finding relationships between effort and other variables in the SEL

Estimating the amount of effort required for a software development project is one of the major aspects of resource estimation for that project. In this study, the relationship between effort and other variables for 23 Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) projects that were developed for NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center was examined. These variables fell into two categories: those which can be determined in the early stages of project development and may therefore be useful in a baseline equation for predicting effort in future projects, and those which can be used mainly to characterize or evaluate effort requirements and thus enhance the understanding of the software development process in this environment. Some results of the analyses are presented.

Basili, Victor R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Towards operational ocean state estimation

An assimilation effort is undertaken with the goal of understanding seasonal-to-interannual changes of the tropical Pacific Ocean from the late '80s to the present, encompassing the WOCE and TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) periods.

method↗

NASA NTRS2000

Rainfall Product Evaluation for the TRMM Ground Validation Program

Evaluation of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observations is conducted through a comprehensive Ground Validation (GV) Program. Standardized instantaneous and monthly rainfall products are routinely generated using quality-controlled ground based radar data from four primary GV sites. As part of the TRMM GV program, effort is being made to evaluate these GV products and to determine the uncertainties of the rainfall estimates. The evaluation effort is based on comparison to rain gauge data. The variance between the gauge measurement and the true averaged rain amount within the radar pixel is a limiting factor in the evaluation process. While monthly estimates are relatively simple to evaluate, the evaluation of the instantaneous products are much more of a challenge. Scattegrams of point comparisons between radar and rain gauges are extremely noisy for several reasons (e.g. sample volume discrepancies, timing and navigation mismatches, variability of Z(sub e)-R relationships), and therefore useless for evaluating the estimates. Several alternative methods, such as the analysis of the distribution of rain volume by rain rate as derived from gauge intensities and from reflectivities above the gauge network will be presented. Alternative procedures to increase the accuracy of the estimates and to reduce their uncertainties also will be discussed.

Amitai, E.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Estimation of aerodynamic characteristics from dynamic flight test data

Significant effort was spent in estimating unknown aircraft coefficients, such as stability and control derivatives from dynamic flight maneuvers. The techniques used to estimate these coefficients are becoming increasingly complex; however, these techniques make it possible to obtain estimates of coefficients that in the past were nearly impossible to obtain. A survey of the investigations that were undertaken to obtain estimates of coefficients from dynamic flight maneuvers is presented. One method, the maximum likelihood estimation technique, is described briefly and some of the successful applications of the technique are presented. Possible techniques for analyzing responses obtained in the stall/spin regime are discussed. Recent data obtained in the stall/spin flight regime are presented along with a discussion of how some basic results can be obtained with simple analysis techniques.

Liff, K. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Hydrogen from coal cost estimation guidebook

In an effort to establish baseline information whereby specific projects can be evaluated, a current set of parameters which are typical of coal gasification applications was developed. Using these parameters a computer model allows researchers to interrelate cost components in a sensitivity analysis. The results make possible an approximate estimation of hydrogen energy economics from coal, under a variety of circumstances.

Billings, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

COSTMODL: An automated software development cost estimation tool

The cost of developing computer software continues to consume an increasing portion of many organizations' total budgets, both in the public and private sector. As this trend develops, the capability to produce reliable estimates of the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product takes on increasing importance. The COSTMODL program was developed to provide an in-house capability to perform development cost estimates for NASA software projects. COSTMODL is an automated software development cost estimation tool which incorporates five cost estimation algorithms including the latest models for the Ada language and incrementally developed products. The principal characteristic which sets COSTMODL apart from other software cost estimation programs is its capacity to be completely customized to a particular environment. The estimation equations can be recalibrated to reflect the programmer productivity characteristics demonstrated by the user's organization, and the set of significant factors which effect software development costs can be customized to reflect any unique properties of the user's development environment. Careful use of a capability such as COSTMODL can significantly reduce the risk of cost overruns and failed projects.

Roush, George B.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Satellite Investigations of Aerosol Radiative Forcing

Biomass burning aerosols have a wide spatial distribution that is governed by the geographic distribution of their source regions and tropospheric circulation. Annually, more than 114 teragrams of smoke is produced that have residence times ranging from days to weeks depending upon their size and chemical composition. These aerosols reflect the incoming solar directly which is called the "direct effect" and they also modify the reflective properties of clouds which is called the "indirect effect". The direct top of atmosphere (TOA) globally averaged radiative forcing estimate range from -0.2 to -1.1 W/sq m . The uncertainties in this estimate are due to the various assumptions (see Introduction) involved in the calculations. While the TOA radiative forcing estimates provide valuable information on the effects of aerosols on climate, equally important are the downward shortwave irradiances (DSWI) at the surface and the atmospheric heating/cooling rate profiles. For example, the DSWI irradiance calculations show large discrepancies between measurements and calculations in the presence of biomass burning aerosols due to the inaccurate characterization of aerosols in radiative transfer models. The DSWI is an important component of the surface radiation balance and the atmospheric effects govern both local and regional circulation patterns. Very few studies have attempted to estimate the surface and atmospheric effects of biomass burning aerosols largely due to the lack of information on the microphysical and chemical properties of biomass burning aerosols. The major focus of this effort is to estimate the direct TOA radiative forcing of aerosols using satellite measurements.

Christopher, Sundar A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ASCoT 3: Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification in Early Concept Spacecraft Flight Software Cost Estimation

For mission planners and evaluators alike, value in cost models comes from a mean or median prediction, an understanding of the uncertainty on that prediction, and an understanding of model performance. Here we apply advanced statistical and machine learning methods to spacecraft flight software cost, effort, and SLOC estimation, and present the results in the latest version of the Analogy Software Cost Tool (ASCoT). We present in- and out-of-sample performance metrics for our models, each of which incorporate some amount of epistemic uncertainty. ASCoT, hosted on the One NASA Cost Engineering (ONCE) database via the Online NASA Space Estimation Tool (ONSET), was first showcased in 2016 as a number of analogy-based models and methods (kNN and Clustering) to support early project formulation. This ASCoT update improves upon the previous analogic methods by incorporating uncertainty in the data transformations. In particular, we use a Nonlinear Principal Components Analysis (NLPCA) to deal with ordinal data.

Robotic Spacecraft↗

NASA NTRS1993

Timoshenko beam modeling for parameter estimation of NASA Mini-Mast truss

In this paper a distributed parameter model for the estimation of modal characteristics of NASA Mini-Mast truss is proposed. A closed-form solution of the Timoshenko beam equation, for a uniform cantilevered beam with two concentrated masses, is derived so that the procedure and the computational effort for the estimation of modal characteristics are improved. A maximum likelihood estimator for the Timoshenko beam model is also developed. The resulting estimates from test data by using Timoshenko beam model are found to be comparable to those derived from other approaches.

Shen, Ji Y.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Robust detection, isolation and accommodation for sensor failures

The objective is to extend the recent advances in robust control system design of multivariable systems to sensor failure detection, isolation, and accommodation (DIA), and estimator design. This effort provides analysis tools to quantify the trade-off between performance robustness and DIA sensitivity, which are to be used to achieve higher levels of performance robustness for given levels of DIA sensitivity. An innovations-based DIA scheme is used. Estimators, which depend upon a model of the process and process inputs and outputs, are used to generate these innovations. Thresholds used to determine failure detection are computed based on bounds on modeling errors, noise properties, and the class of failures. The applicability of the newly developed tools are demonstrated on a multivariable aircraft turbojet engine example. A new concept call the threshold selector was developed. It represents a significant and innovative tool for the analysis and synthesis of DiA algorithms. The estimators were made robust by introduction of an internal model and by frequency shaping. The internal mode provides asymptotically unbiased filter estimates.The incorporation of frequency shaping of the Linear Quadratic Gaussian cost functional modifies the estimator design to make it suitable for sensor failure DIA. The results are compared with previous studies which used thresholds that were selcted empirically. Comparison of these two techniques on a nonlinear dynamic engine simulation shows improved performance of the new method compared to previous techniques

Emami-Naeini, A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Global Water Monitor: Lake, Wetland, and River Reach Monitoring for Resource Management and Hazard Observation

The Global Water Monitor is a monitoring program offering surface water-related products for lakes, reservoirs, river reaches, and wetlands, https://blueice.gsfc.nasa.gov/gwm. These products are derived from multiple satellite-based altimetry and multispectral imaging platforms. The primary measurements are water level, slope, and extent, derived from a series of NASA and other agency instruments (Sentinel-3,-6, ICESat-2, SWOT, MODIS). The system serves stakeholders, the US Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service and the US Geological Survey, as well as various international, national, state, and intelligence agencies, engineers, ecologists, and hydrological researchers. Considering the sensitivity of ground-based data and the remote accessibility of many basins, the satellites offer global coverage, accuracy, and continuity of measurements. Observation of storage fluctuations in lakes and reservoirs provides users with knowledge of short and long-term drought conditions that can affect both water and energy resources. Emphasis is on changing climatic conditions, water sharing between nations, and regional stability. Measurements across a wetland complex can assist with efforts to assess hydrological dynamics with a focus on conservation efforts that aid both natural ecology and the sharing of precious water resources – the latter potentially being required in a basin across the municipal, crop irrigation, aquaculture, livestock, and power station spectrum. Observations of river reaches assists in the collection of basic hydraulic information, particularly in gauge-poor regions, for modelling efforts and the estimation of discharge, and at high-latitudes satellite-based river observations serve projects that warn of spring melts and flood hazards. We look at how recent improvements in instrument technology and mission operations are assisting with acquiring true global coverage and cross-validation efforts, and how stakeholders interact with the project in terms of setting requirements, product format, and accessibility methods. Examples show the application of the products across a range of programs, and in addition to meeting operational requirements, how the multi-decadal surface water levels are creating a high-quality timeline of Earth Data Records.

Lakes↗

NASA NTRS2011

Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool

The Data Service Provider Cost Estimation Tool (CET) and Comparables Database (CDB) package provides to NASA s Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) the ability to estimate the full range of year-by-year lifecycle cost estimates for the implementation and operation of data service providers required by ESE to support its science and applications programs. The CET can make estimates dealing with staffing costs, supplies, facility costs, network services, hardware and maintenance, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software licenses, software development and sustaining engineering, and the changes in costs that result from changes in workload. Data Service Providers may be stand-alone or embedded in flight projects, field campaigns, research or applications projects, or other activities. The CET and CDB package employs a cost-estimation-by-analogy approach. It is based on a new, general data service provider reference model that provides a framework for construction of a database by describing existing data service providers that are analogs (or comparables) to planned, new ESE data service providers. The CET implements the staff effort and cost estimation algorithms that access the CDB and generates the lifecycle cost estimate for a new data services provider. This data creates a common basis for an ESE proposal evaluator for considering projected data service provider costs.

Fontaine, Kathy↗

NASA NTRS1978

Estimates of ground-level mercury vapor concentrations from postulated launch-pad accidents of NASA space transportation systems

NASA has considered the use of mercury ion bombardment engines as extra-terrestrial propulsion systems where low thrust must be provided for long periods of time. However, the mercury fuel in these engines may pose a hazard if it is accidentally released to the troposphere. A description is presented of diffusion-model estimates of maximum 10-minute and 24-hour ground-level concentrations that could result from the accidental release of mercury from Titan/Centaur and Space Shuttle/Tug transportation systems. Three types of accidental release modes have been considered in the concentration calculations. For all three modes, the diffusion-model calculations were made for a variety of meteorological conditions in an effort to obtain estimates of the maximum credible concentrations under 'worst-case' conditions.

Dumbauld, R. K.↗