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NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

stochastic calculus↗

NASA NTRS1989

AMTEC recirculating test cell component testing and operation

Alkali metal thermoelectric converter operation in a recirculating test cell (RTC), which requires a small electromagnetic pump (EM) and a high-temperature beta-double-prime alumina-solid-electrolyte (BASE)-to-metal seal, is discussed. The design of a pump and an active metal braze seal and the initial operation of a cell using these components are described. The pump delivered 0.25 cu cm/min against a 28-psia head. A braze seal system was selected after shear strength tests of Ta or Nb brazed to BASE by a variety of fillers including TiCuNi, TiNi, and TiNiCr. The TiCuNi filler was chosen for environment cell testing and showed no failure or observable degradation after short-term tests up to 1055 K. The pump and the Nb/TiCuNi/BASE seal were used in a test that demonstrated all the operational functions of the RTC for the first time. An increase in the radiation reduction factor at constant input power was observed, indicating that the condenser was being wet by sodium resulting in an increased reflectivity.

Underwood, M. L.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Effects of varying oxygen partial pressure on molten silicon-ceramic substrate interactions

The silicon sessile drop contact angle was measured on hot pressed silicon nitride, silicon nitride coated on hot pressed silicon nitride, silicon carbon coated on graphite, and on Sialon to determine the degree to which silicon wets these substances. The post-sessile drop experiment samples were sectioned and photomicrographs were taken of the silicon-substrate interface to observe the degree of surface dissolution and degradation. Of these materials, silicon did not form a true sessile drop on the SiC on graphite due to infiltration of the silicon through the SiC coating, nor on the Sialon due to the formation of a more-or-less rigid coating on the liquid silicon. The most wetting was obtained on the coated Si3N4 with a value of 42 deg. The oxygen concentrations in a silicon ribbon furnace and in a sessile drop furnace were measured using the protable thoria-yttria solid solution electrolyte oxygen sensor. Oxygen partial pressures of 10 to the minus 7 power atm and 10 to the minus 8 power atm were obtained at the two facilities. These measurements are believed to represent nonequilibrium conditions.

Ownby, D. P.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Chemical and morphological characteristics of lithium electrode surfaces

Lithium electrode surfaces were analyzed for chemical and morphological characteristics, using electron spectroscopy chemical analysis (ESCA) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Samples included lithium metal and lithium electrodes which were cycled in a 1.5 M lithium arsenic hexafluoride/two-methyl tetrahydrofuran electrolyte. Results show that the surface of the as-received lithium metal was already covered by a film composed of LiO2 and an Li2O/CO2 adduct with a thickness of approximately 100-200 A. No evidence of Ni3 was found. Upon exposure of the lithium electrode to a 1.5 M LiAsF6/2-Me-THF electrochemical environment, a second film was observed to form on the surface, consisting primarily of As, Si, and F, possibly in the form of lithium arsenic oxyfluorides or lithium fluorosilicates. It is suggested that the film formation may be attributed to salt degradation.

Yen, S. P. S.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Electronic Health Management

Accelerated aging methodologies for electrolytic components have been designed and accelerated aging experiments have been carried out. The methodology is based on imposing electrical and/or thermal overstresses via electrical power cycling in order to mimic the real world operation behavior. Data are collected in-situ and offline in order to periodically characterize the devices' electrical performance as it ages. The data generated through these experiments are meant to provide capability for the validation of prognostic algorithms (both model-based and data-driven). Furthermore, the data allow validation of physics-based and empirical based degradation models for this type of capacitor. A first set of models and algorithms has been designed and tested on the data.

Celaya, Jose R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effect of Reverse Bias Stress on Leakage Currents and Breakdown Voltages of Solid Tantalum Capacitors

The majority of solid tantalum capacitors are produced by high-temperature sintering of a fine tantalum powder around a tantalum wire followed by electrolytic anodization that forms a thin amorphous Ta2O5 dielectric layer and pyrolysis of manganese nitrite on the oxide to create a conductive manganese dioxide electrode. A contact to tantalum wire is used as anode terminal and to the manganese layer as a cathode terminal of the device. This process results in formation of an asymmetric Ta -- Ta2O5 -- MnO2 capacitor that has different characteristics at forward (positive bias applied to tantalum) and reverse (positive bias applied to manganese cathode) voltages. Reverse bias currents might be several orders of magnitude larger than forward leakage currents so I-V characteristics of tantalum capacitors resemble characteristics of semiconductor rectifiers. Asymmetric I-V characteristics of Ta -- anodic Ta2O5 systems have been observed at different top electrode materials including metals, electrolytes, conductive polymers, and manganese oxide thus indicating that this phenomenon is likely related to the specifics of the Ta -- Ta2O5 interface. There have been multiple attempts to explain rectifying characteristics of capacitors employing anodic tantalum pentoxide dielectrics. A brief review of works related to reverse bias (RB) behavior of tantalum capacitors shows that the mechanism of conduction in Ta -- Ta2O5 systems is still not clear and more testing and analysis is necessary to understand the processes involved. If tantalum capacitors behave just as rectifiers, then the assessment of the safe reverse bias operating conditions would be a relatively simple task. Unfortunately, these parts can degrade with time under reverse bias significantly, and this further complicates analysis of the I-V characteristics and establishing safe operating areas of the parts. On other hand, time dependence of reverse currents might provide additional information for investigation of the processes under reverse bias conditions. In practice, there were instances when, due to unforeseen events, the system operated at conditions when capacitors experience periodically a relatively small reverse bias for some time followed by normal, forward bias conditions. In such a case an assessment should be made on the degree to which these capacitors are degraded by application of low-voltage reverse bias, and whether this degradation can be reversed by normal operating conditions. In this study, reverse currents in different types of tantalum capacitors were monitored at different reverse voltages below 15%VR and temperatures in the range from room to 145 C for up to 150 hours to get better understanding of the degradation process and determine conditions favorable to the unstable mode of operation. The reversibility of RB degradation has been evaluated after operation of the capacitors at forward bias conditions. The effect of reverse bias stress (RBS) on reliability at normal operating conditions was evaluated using highly accelerated life testing at voltages of 1.5VR and 2 VR and by analysis of changes in distributions of breakdown voltages. Possible mechanisms of RB degradation are discussed.

Teverovsky, Alexander A.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Development of Advanced Fuel Cell System (Phase 4)

A multiple-task research and development program was performed to improve the weight, life, and performance characteristics of hydrogen-oxygen alkaline fuel cells for advanced power systems. During Phase 4, the lowest stabilized degradation rate observed in all the testing completed during four phases of the program, 1 microvolt/hour, was demonstrated. This test continues after 5,000 hours of operation. The cell incorporates a PPf anode, a 90Au/10Pt cathode, a hybrid frame, and a Fybex matrix. These elements were developed under this program to extend cell life. The result demonstrated that the 80Au/20Pt cathode is as stable as a 90Au/10Pt cathode of twice the precious metal loading, was confirmed in full-scale cells. A hybrid frame two-cell plaque with dedicated flow fields and manifolds for all fluids was demonstrated to prevent the cell-to cell electrolyte transfer that limited the endurance of multicell plaques. At the conclusion of Phase 4, more than 90,900 hours of testing had been completed and twelve different cell designs had been evaluated. A technology base has been established which is ready for evaluation at the powerplant level.

Meyer, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of Elements used for Manufacturing of NanoLam Metallized Polymer Film Capacitors

Metallized polymer film capacitors (MPFC) manufactured by NanoLam technology have a better volumetric efficiency and performance that may exceed the reliability of conventional MPFCs typically used in power and high voltage systems that require high insulation resistance and low power losses. These capacitors can be also an effective replacement for electrolytic and stacked ceramic capacitors currently used in space applications looking to save significant volume and mass. This report evaluates the effects of environmental conditions including radiation and storage at room and high temperatures on the characteristics of NanoLam elements used in the production of MPFCs. Assessments of the reliability acceleration factors and predictions for the useful life are made based on highly accelerated life tests (HALT) using distributions of times to parametric failures at different stress conditions. It has been shown that even a relatively small amount of moisture absorbed at room environments in the dielectric layers may substantially change the probability of failure. In the presence of moisture, degradation processes that started after voltage application continue with time during storage.

Metallized polymer film capacitors (MPFC)↗

NASA NTRS2002

Processing and Mechanical Properties of Various Zirconia/Alumina Composites for Fuel Cell Applications

Various electrolyte materials for solid oxide fuel cells were fabricated by hot pressing 10 mol% yttria-stabilized zirconia (10-YSZ) reinforced with two different forms of alumina, particulates and platelets, each containing 0 to 30 mol% alumina. Flexure strength and fracture toughness of both particulate and platelet composites at ambient temperature increased with increasing alumina content, reaching a maximum at 30 mot% alumina. For a given alumina content, strength of particulate composites was greater than that of platelet composites, whereas, the difference in fracture toughness between the two composite systems was negligible. No virtual difference in elastic modulus and density was observed for a given alumina content between particulate and platelet composites. Thermal cycling up to 10 cycles between 200 to 1000 C did not show any effect on strength degradation of the 30 mol% platelet composites, indicative of negligible influence of CTE mismatches between YSZ matrix and alumina grains.

Choi, Sung R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

NASA Lewis advanced IPV nickel-hydrogen technology

Individual pressure vessel (IPV) nickel-hydrogen technology was advanced at NASA Lewis and under Lewis contracts. Some of the advancements are as follows: to use 26 percent potassium hydroxide electrolyte to improve cycle life and performance, to modify the state of the art cell design to eliminate identified failure modes and further improve cycle life, and to develop a lightweight nickel electrode to reduce battery mass, hence reduce launch and/or increase satellite payload. A breakthrough in the LEO cycle life of individual pressure vessel nickel-hydrogen battery cells was reported. The cycle life of boiler plate cells containing 26 percent KOH electrolyte was about 40,000 accelerated LEO cycles at 80 percent DOD compared to 3,500 cycles for cells containing 31 percent KOH. Results of the boiler plate cell tests have been validated at NWSC, Crane, Indiana. Forty-eight ampere-hour flight cells containing 26 and 31 percent KOH have undergone real time LEO cycle life testing at an 80 percent DOD, 10 C. The three cells containing 26 percent KOH failed on the average at cycle 19,500. The three cells containing 31 percent KOH failed on the average at cycle 6,400. Validation testing of NASA Lewis 125 Ah advanced design IPV nickel-hydrogen flight cells is also being conducted at NWSC, Crane, Indiana under a NASA Lewis contract. This consists of characterization, storage, and cycle life testing. There was no capacity degradation after 52 days of storage with the cells in the discharged state, on open circuit, 0 C, and a hydrogen pressure of 14.5 psia. The catalyzed wall wick cells have been cycled for over 22,694 cycles with no cell failures in the continuing test. All three of the non-catalyzed wall wick cells failed (cycles 9,588; 13,900; and 20,575). Cycle life test results of the Fibrex nickel electrode has demonstrated the feasibility of an improved nickel electrode giving a higher specific energy nickel-hydrogen cell. A nickel-hydrogen boiler plate cell using an 80 mil thick, 90 percent porous Fibrex nickel electrode has been cycled for 10,000 cycles at 40 percent DOD.

Smithrick, John J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Mission Flexibility to Battery Driven Deep Space Endeavors With Generalized Battery-Health-Monitoring Using Physics-Based and Data-Driven Reduced-Order Models

The needs and requirements for an electrochemical energy storage for deep space exploration is well explored. It is often understood that different mission sites and environmental conditions require different battery chemistries or technologies. Additionally, various engineering solutions are deployed to overcome specific chemical challenges. One often overlooked need is the “health” monitoring of an electrochemical storage system. The term generalized health monitoring, as envisioned in this work, refers to the monitoring of various aspects such as electrode health, electrolyte health, reaction pathway health, cooling system health, sensor health, and BMS health [1]. Generalized health monitoring allows mission leads, engineers, and scientists to incorporate flexibility in mission designs, make on-the-fly mission changes, and extend the duration of science missions. Moreover, it enables automation and data-driven decision-making without compromising safety and performance. Recently, our group developed a hierarchy of thermal reduced-order models (TROM) by combining a physics-based modeling approach and data-driven model reduction techniques applied to flight data [2]. The resulting TROMs were found to be not only accurate but also identifiable from the flight data. Consequently, the coefficient of variance of the model parameters is small over the course of hundreds of flights, allowing for monitoring the parameter evolution trajectories as the battery ages and degrades. These parameters constitute the metrics of the generalized health of a battery. Monitoring their evolution allows such models to be used for anomaly detection and prognostics, improving early detection of abnormal behavior and thus enabling timely maintenance, longer battery life, and enhanced battery safety. For this presentation, the practicality of the thermal model will be validated on a pack of 14cells under various topology configurations such as 1S14P, 2P7S, 7S2P, and 1P14S. It is well known that manufacturing and non-uniform aging lead to variability in the performance of a cell, which is exacerbated by cell balancing during active load. Additionally, in extreme scenarios, the paramount objective is to complete the mission, regardless of the stresses on the battery. Topology-induced balancing issues further stress the battery. The goal of this study is to determine if the noise (identifiability) in the reduced-order thermal model parameters is sensitive to topology, cell spacing, cooling strategy, and manufacturing or age variability. The variability in cells is considered by assuming a multimodal distribution for microscopic parameters of a cell (such as porosity, tortuosity, reaction kinetics, volumetric thermal conductivity, and volumetric heat capacity). The compounded effect of manufacturing variability, topological selection, cooling strategies, and cell balancing ages each cell in a battery differently. The study aims to clarify whether the challenge in extracting maximum information depends on the minimum number of sensors or models used for data extraction.

Automation↗

NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Electrolytic capacitors↗

NASA NTRS1983

Cycle life test and failure model of nickel-hydrogen cells

Six ampere hour individual pressure vessel nickel hydrogen cells were charge/discharge cycled to failure. Failure as used here is defined to occur when the end of discharge voltage degraded to 0.9 volts. They were cycled under a low earth orbit cycle regime to a deep depth of discharge (80 percent of rated ampere hour capacity). Both cell designs were fabricated by the same manufacturer and represent current state of the art. A failure model was advanced which suggests both cell designs have inadequate volume tolerance characteristics. The limited existing data base at a deep depth of discharge (DOD) was expanded. Two cells of each design were cycled. One COMSAT cell failed at cycle 1712 and the other failed at cycle 1875. For the Air Force/Hughes cells, one cell failed at cycle 2250 and the other failed at cycle 2638. All cells, of both designs, failed due to low end of discharge voltage (0.9 volts). No cell failed due to electrical shorts. After cell failure, three different reconditioning tests (deep discharge, physical reorientation, and open circuit voltage stand) were conducted on all cells of each design. A fourth reconditioning test (electrolyte addition) was conducted on one cell of each design. In addition post cycle cell teardown and failure analysis were performed on the one cell of each design which did not have electrolyte added after failure.

Smithrick, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Cycle life test and failure model of nickel-hydrogen cells

Smithrick, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Sulfur and Moisture Effects on Alumina Scale and TBC Spallation

It has been well established that a few ppmw sulfur impurity may segregate to the interface of thermally grown alumina scales and the underlying substrate, resulting in bond degradation and premature spallation. This has been shown for NiAl and NiCrAl-based alloys, bare single crystal superalloys, or coated superalloys. The role of reactive elements (especially Y) has been to getter the sulfur in the bulk and preclude interfacial segregation. Pt additions are also very beneficial, however a similar thermodynamic explanation does not apply. The purpose of the present discussion is to highlight some observations of these effects on Rene'142, Rene'N5, PWA1480, and PWA1484. For PWA1480, we have mapped cyclic oxidation and spallation in terms of potential sulfur interfacial layers and found that a cumulative amount of about one monolayer is sufficient to degrade long term adhesion. Depending on substrate thickness, optimum performance occurs if sulfur is reduced below about 0.2-0.5 ppmw. This is accomplished in the laboratory by hydrogen annealing or commercially by melt-fluxing. Excellent 1150 C cyclic oxidation is thus demonstrated for desulfurized Rene'142, Rene'N5, and PWA1484. Alternatively, a series of N5 alloys provided by GE-AE have shown that as little as 15 ppmw of Y dopant was effective in providing remarkable scale adhesion. In support of a Y-S gettering mechanism, hydrogen annealing was unable to desulfurize these alloys from their initial level of 5 ppmw S. This impurity and critical doping level corresponds closely to YS or Y2S3 stoichiometry. In many cases, Y-doped alloys or alloys with marginal sulfur levels exhibit an oxidative sensitivity to the ambient humidity called Moisture-Induced Delayed Spallation (MIDS). After substantial scale growth, coupled with damage from repeated cycling, cold samples may spall after a period of time, breathing on them, or immersing them in water. While stress corrosion arguments may apply, we propose that the underlying cause is related to a hydrogen embrittlement reaction: Al alloy + 3 H2O = Al(OH)3 + 3H(+) + 3e(-). This mechanism is derived from an analogous moisture-induced hydrogen embrittlement mechanism originally shown for Ni3Al and FeAl intermetallics. Consequently, a cathodic hydrogen charging technique was used to demonstrate that electrolytic de-scaling occurs for these otherwise adherent alumina scales formed on Y-doped Rene'N5, in support of hydrogen effects. Finally, some TBC observations are discussed in light of all of the above. Plasma sprayed 8YSZ coatings, produced on PWA1484 without a bond coat, were found to survive more than 1000 1-hr cycles at 1100 C when desulfurized to below 0.1 ppmw. At higher sulfur (1.2 ppmw) levels, moisture sensitivity and delayed TBC failure, referred to as Desk Top Spallation, occurred at just 200 hr. Despite a large degree of scatter, a factor of 5 in life improvement is indicated for desulfurized samples in cyclic furnace tests, confirming the beneficial effect of low sulfur alloys on model TBC systems. (DTS and moisture effects are also observed on commercially applied PVD 7YSZ coatings on Rene'N5+Y with Pt-aluminide bond coats). These types of catastrophic failure were subverted on the model system by segmenting the substrate into a network of 0.010 high ribs, spaced in. apart, prior to plasma spraying. No failures occurred after 1000 cycles at 1150 C or after 2000 cycles at 1100 C, even after water immersion. The benefit is described in terms of elasticity models and a critical buckling stress.

Smialek, James L.↗