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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing Low-Cost Methane Sensor Calibration Shortcomings with Machine Learning

Quantifying methane emissions is essential for meeting near-term climate goals and is typically carried out using methane concentrations measured downwind of the source. One major source of methane that is important to observe and promptly remediate is fugitive emissions from oil and gas production sites but installing methane sensors at the thousands of sites within a production basin is expensive. In recent years, relatively inexpensive metal oxide sensors have been used to measure methane concentrations at production sites. Current methods used to calibrate metal oxide sensors have been shown to have significant shortcomings, resulting in limited confidence in methane concentrations generated by these sensors. To address this, we investigate using machine learning (ML) to generate a model that converts metal oxide sensor output to methane mixing ratios. To generate test data, two metal oxide sensors, TGS2600 and TGS2611, were collocated with a trace methane analyzer downwind of controlled methane releases. Over the duration of the measurements, the trace gas analyzer’s average methane mixing ratio was 2.40 ppm with a maximum of 147.6 ppm. The average calculated methane mixing ratios for the TGS2600 and TGS2611 using the ML algorithm were 2.42 ppm and 2.40 ppm, with maximum values of 117.5 ppm and 106.3 ppm, respectively. A comparison of histograms generated using the analyzer and metal oxide sensors mixing ratios shows overlap coefficients of 0.95 and 0.94 for the TGS2600 and TGS2611, respectively. Overall, our results showed there was a good agreement between the ML-derived metal oxide sensors’ mixing ratios and those generated using the more accurate trace gas analyzer. This suggests that the response of lower-cost sensors calibrated using ML could be used to generate mixing ratios with precision and accuracy comparable to higher priced trace methane analyzers. This would improve confidence in low-cost sensors’ response, reduce the cost of sensor deployment, and allow for timely and accurate tracking of methane emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Marine aerosol generation experiments in the High Arctic during summertime

The rapidly warming Arctic has transitioned to thinner sea ice which fractures, producing leads. Few studies have investigated Arctic sea spray aerosol (SSA) produced from open ocean, leads, and melt ponds, which vary in salinity and organic and microbial community composition. A marine aerosol reference tank was deployed aboard an icebreaker to the Arctic Ocean during August–September 2018 to study SSA generated from locally collected surface waters. Aerosol generation experiments were carried out using water collected from the marginal ice zone, a human-made hole in sea ice near the North Pole, and both lead and melt pond water during an ice floe drift period. Salinity, chlorophyll a, organic carbon, nitrogen, and microbial community composition were measured. Eukaryotic plankton and bacterial abundance were elevated in experimental water from the marginal ice zone, but the relative contributions from major eukaryotic taxonomic groups varied little across the experiments. The chemical composition of individual SSA particles was analyzed using Raman microspectroscopy and computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy with energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Individual sea salt aerosol, primary organic aerosol, and mineral dust particles were observed. Sea salt aerosol constituted 44–95% of individual submicrometer and 68–100% of supermicrometer particles, by number, generated during each experiment. Carbon was detected in 85%, by number, of the individual sea salt particles, with visible organic coatings. Carbohydrates were detected in 72% of particles, by number, with smaller contributions from long-chain fatty acids (13%) and siliceous material (15%). SSA generated from melt pond water contained only long-chain fatty acids and siliceous material. Quantification of the ice-nucleating activity showed that locally produced SSA may define the High Arctic background ice-nucleating particle population, but cannot account for the peak atmospheric concentrations observed. As the Arctic warms, the increasing SSA emissions have a complex dependence on changing biological and physical processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of Liquids Using the Submerged Plasma for Isotopic Detection and Elemental Resolution (SPIDER)

We developed a sensor called the Submerged Plasma for Isotopic Detection and Elemental Resolution (SPIDER) probe, which uses an atmospheric pressure glow discharge below the surface of liquids to excite species in the liquid. Through emission spectroscopy of molten salts, liquid metals, and heavy water, we demonstrated the SPIDER probe’s high resolution, accuracy, and versatility. We successfully identified trace concentrations of transition and rare-earth metals in molten salts and detected the isotopic shift of the H β → D β emission line. Our analysis revealed unconventional spectral alkali line shapes, indicating two competing excitation modes: film explosion and droplet vaporization. The film explosion mode, characterized by dense plasma, exhibited self-reversal and broadband continuum emission, while the droplet vaporization mode, associated with diffusive plasma, produced narrow-line emissions. Furthermore, by analyzing circuit transients alongside individual plasma events, we observed that film explosions generate higher currents, likely due to a shorter plasma length as the current preferentially flows through the thin liquid layer. Altogether, our results highlight the SPIDER probe’s efficacy and flexibility, making it well-suited for online material quantification of liquids in extreme environments.

AES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structured light approaches in laser-based plasma diagnostics

There is a growing demand for plasma diagnostics suitable for industrial plasma reactors employed in semiconductor nanofabrication, especially relevant to microelectronics and quantum information systems. Such reactors typically have limited optical access and pose considerable diagnostic challenges, including intense background emission, significant thermal loads, and contamination of optical viewports. In this study, we outline research into structured light techniques (laser beams with tailored spatial, temporal, or phase characteristics) that effectively overcome these issues using laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) as an example. The focus of presented diagnostics is on ion kinetics analysis within an industrial plasma source, although this approach is broadly applicable to other plasma systems and diagnostic contexts. We present a confocal LIF implementation using an axicon-generated Bessel annular beam, achieving spatial resolutions of approximately 5 mm at a focal distance of 300 mm, with potential improvements to about 1 mm. This approach matches conventional orthogonal LIF performance but requires only one optical port. Wavelength-modulation LIF employs nonlinear laser wavelength tuning to measure spectral line derivatives, suppressing background emission and enhancing details of spectral line shape. Additionally, we present new results on applying vortex beams (laser beams carrying orbital angular momentum, OAM) for LIF measurements in an industrial plasma device. These measurements enable simultaneous axial and tangential velocity determination using a single laser beam and have been tested with xenon ion transition. Initial quantification of results was performed. Together, these structured-light approaches provide robust, background-resilient, multi-dimensional diagnostics for complex plasma environments.

Romadanov, Ivan [Princeton Plasma Physics Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of the Crack Evolution Process by Extracting Relevant Signal Components from Wave Propagation and Diffusive Transport Front Measurements

Wave propagation and diffusive transport phenomena in a geological rock sample undergoing crack evolution process are expected to interact with the mechanical discontinuities in the medium. The measurements of the signals associated with these phenomena can be used to assess and monitor the crack-driven micromechanical alterations in the rock. Different wave/diffusion phenomena, such as sonic propagation, pressure diffusion, and acoustic emission (AE), are sensitive to different elements of the mechanical discontinuities generated during the evolution of the crack clusters from initiation to coalescence. Sonic propagation, AE, and pressure diffusion monitoring have the potential to map the crack evolution because the transmitter-receiver arrays can be designed, arranged and tuned to (1) achieve maximum recovery of the scattered waveforms and travel times, (2) capture the later arrivals and multiple reflections, and (3) illuminate large rock volume. However, the structural/topological complexities of the mechanical discontinuities, complex distribution of the stress fields, complex mechanical alterations in media, and fluid redistribution in the crack system pose serious challenges for the detection and modeling of the crack evolution process (from here on, we will use the term ‘crack evolution process’ to mean that the crack evolution occurred under shallow crustal conditions). For purposes of accurately accounting such complexities and heterogeneities in the absence of reliable physical laws, simulation methods, and signal processing techniques, my early-career research proposal will develop and apply novel data-driven machine learning methods to: (1) extract signal components relevant to the various phases of crack evolution and (2) generate a 2D visual map of the crack evolution process.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and code for Daily and Multi-Day Extreme Rainfall Analysis Under Future Climates Using Stochastic Storm Transposition and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Over CONUS

This data package provides inputs, codes, and outputs for a comprehensive analysis of projected changes in extreme precipitation across 10 regions of the continental United States, using 34 downscaled Earth System Models (ESMs) from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) dataset. These models are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), a coordinated climate modeling framework widely used to assess climate change impacts. The analysis applies a stochastic storm transposition method to quantify changes in extreme rainfall under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions)—compared to historical conditions (1995–2014 vs. 2081–2100). The dataset includes rainfall depth estimates for extreme events with return periods from 2 to 500 years across multiple storm durations (1, 3, and 5 days) for each of the 10 U.S. regions. Weighted ensemble statistics are derived from individual ESM performance against historical precipitation patterns, enabling robust uncertainty quantification through both sign-based and permutation-test-based model agreement assessments. Key analyses address: (1) relative changes in extreme precipitation for each climate scenario, (2) differences between SSP scenarios (SSP5-8.5 vs. SSP2-4.5), (3) contrasts between rare and frequent events, and (4) variations between multi-day and daily storm durations. The workflow produces ensemble statistics—median, 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles—along with model agreement metrics that identify regions and event types with robust climate change signals. The dataset includes: processed rainfall depth outputs (netCDF format) from the RainyDay Python package, ESM weights from historical performance evaluation using DayMet observations, ensemble statistics across all storm dimensions, and figures summarizing key findings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harmonizing tau positron emission tomography in Alzheimer's disease: The CenTauR scale and the joint propagation model

Abstract INTRODUCTION Tau‐positron emission tomography (PET) outcome data of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) cannot currently be meaningfully compared or combined when different tracers are used due to differences in tracer properties, instrumentation, and methods of analysis. METHODS Using head‐to‐head data from five cohorts with tau PET radiotracers designed to target tau deposition in AD, we tested a joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification (units termed “CenTauR” [CTR]). JPM is a statistical model that simultaneously models the relationships between head‐to‐head and anchor point data. JPM was compared to a linear regression approach analogous to the one used in the amyloid PET Centiloid scale. RESULTS A strong linear relationship was observed between CTR values across brain regions. Using the JPM approach, CTR estimates were similar to, but more accurate than, those derived using the linear regression approach. DISCUSSION Preliminary findings using the JPM support the development and adoption of a universal scale for tau‐PET quantification. Highlights Tested a novel joint propagation model (JPM) to harmonize quantification of tau PET. Units of common scale are termed “CenTauRs”. Tested a Centiloid‐like linear regression approach. Using five cohorts with head‐to‐head tau PET, JPM outperformed linearregressionbased approach. Strong linear relationship was observed between CenTauRs values across brain regions.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electrocatalytic CN Coupling: Advances in Urea Synthesis and Opportunities for Alternative Products

Urea is an essential fertilizer produced through the industrial synthesis of ammonia (NH 3 ) via the Haber–Bosch process, which contributes ≈1.2% of global annual CO 2 emissions. Electrocatalytic urea synthesis under ambient conditions via CN coupling from CO 2 and nitrogen species such as nitrate (NO 3 − ), nitrite (NO 2 − ), nitric oxide (NO), and nitrogen gas (N 2 ) has gained interest as a more sustainable route. However, challenges remain due to the unclear reaction pathways for urea formation, competing reactions, and the complexity of the resulting product matrix. This review highlights recent advances in catalyst design, urea quantification, and intermediate identification in the CN coupling reaction for electrocatalytic urea synthesis. Furthermore, this review explores future prospects for industrial CN coupling, considering potential nitrogen and carbon sources and examining alternative CN coupling products, such as amides and amines.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble methods for quantification of potassium oxide in ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra

In this paper we test new approaches for predicting the amount of element oxides in rock samples from the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover by focusing on K 2 O. Using the expanded dataset compiled by Gasda et al. (2021) with and without the Earth to Mars (E2M and NoE2M) transformation discussed in Clegg et al. (2017) we trained blended submodels using the “double blending” technique and compared these to ensemble methods (Random Forest, ExtraTrees, and Gradient Boosting Regression). We found that ensemble methods performed similar to blended submodels when looking at RMSE-P on the laboratory spectra and provided significant advantages when looking at spectra coming from Mars. For the full model, blended submodels achieved an RMSE-P of 0.62 and 0.60 (E2M and NoE2M respectively) while Gradient Boosting Regression resulted in a slightly improved RMSE-P of 0.59 and 0.60. More importantly, by employing a local RMSE-P estimation technique where model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples we found that using ensemble methods can lower the quantification limit for K 2 O from the current value of ≈0.6 wt% to ≈0.08 wt% using Extra Trees and Random Forest. This would allow for a much larger range of K 2 O values to be quantified on Mars with greater certainty given that most targets seen on Mars tend to have <1 wt% K2O. Finally, we used both Mean Decrease in Impurity (MDI) and permutation importance techniques to investigate the wavelengths used by the ensemble methods and found that they correspond to known potassium emission lines. This suggests that ensemble methods can provide an easier to train and improved alternative to blended submodels for predicting potassium compositions from Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fracture Network Prediction Using Physics-based Machine Learning Algorithms

In recent years, systematic CO2 injection into geological reservoirs across the U.S. has gained traction as a strategy to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. This approach necessitates precise monitoring to ensure secure containment, minimize risks, and optimize storage management. Our study leverages machine learning (ML) techniques to advance the understanding of CO2 injection processes, focusing on the Illinois Basin. Over a three-year injection period, we analyzed microseismic data, identifying 19 temporal intervals with significant bottom-hole pressure changes. By partitioning microseismic events into these intervals and estimating b-values, we revealed over 100 clusters of events related to fracture initiation or reactivation. Advanced spatial analysis highlighted horizontally-oriented fractures along the NNW-SSE axis. This quantification of fracture networks informs dynamic injection scheduling, work-over strategies, and risk assessments, enhancing carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) operations. Additionally, our methodology offers valuable insights for oil and gas operations and geothermal development, supporting fracture-based monitoring and risk mitigation.

Kumar, Abhash↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote quantification of Cm(III) and HNO 3 by fluorescence spectroscopy and chemometrics

A unique approach to remotely quantify Cm(III) (0–100 µg mL −1 ) in HNO 3 (1–12 M) using steady-state laser fluorescence spectroscopy and multivariate regression models was developed. Photoluminescence is amenable to remote measurements using fiber-optic cables and is sensitive to numerous lanthanide and actinide species. In-line measurements can provide feedback to support complex processing in harsh environments (e.g., hot cells) to help guide and optimize radiochemical separations. In this work, Cm(III) spectra were acquired remotely in a glove box as a function of HNO 3 concentration to better understand spectral characteristics and evaluate the utility of multivariate regression models in this system. Furthermore, the Cm(III) fluorescence peak shape, width, position, and intensity changed significantly as a function of HNO 3 concentration, likely because of the displacement of emission quenching inner-sphere water molecules and complexation with nitrate ions. Despite significant covariance and nonlinearity in the data, a D-optimal design strategy successfully minimized training set sample size and was used to build effective partial least squares regression models for Cm(III) and HNO 3 concentrations without a priori knowledge of solution conditions. Chemometrics for modeling complex fluorescence spectra are promising and may find widespread applicability for online analysis in numerous chemical systems found in the nuclear field.

Actinide↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the distribution of stacking faults at dissociated medium-angle grain boundaries: Crystallographic geometry and metastability

Grain boundaries in FCC metals with low stacking-fault energy can form in dissociated configurations of stacking faults. Perhaps the most studied example is 9R stacking at boundaries near Σ3{112}, where the distribution of stacking faults is related to the emission of Shockley partial dislocations. Here, we combine atomic-resolution electron microscopy, atomistic simulations, and dislocation theory to demonstrate that boundaries vicinal to Σ33a support the stabilization of dissociated 9R stacking within a narrow range of inclinations. This boundary is interesting since its misorientation (20.05°) lies in the medium-angle regime, just past the upper misorientation limit for low-angle boundaries, motivating questions for how best to describe it in terms of dislocations. Our HAADF-STEM observations of thin film bicrystals, supported by atomistic modeling, reveal that this inclination dependence arises from specific geometric constraints on the arrangement of Shockley partial dislocations at the interface. Quantification of stacking-fault distributions across multiple boundaries indicates that the density and spacing of faults closely follow the ideal 9R motif, with subtle variations reflecting the complex energy landscape of these boundaries. Through energetic analysis, we establish the presence of competing metastable states enabled by variations in stacking sequences, emphasizing the significant role of crystallographic geometry. We generalize our analysis as a function of misorientation, showing how 9R at the Σ33a boundary is related to previous observations and calculations of HCP at a 29.7° boundary. This study provides a crystallographically grounded framework connecting dislocation structures, stacking-fault distributions, and metastability at grain boundaries in FCC metals.

Atomistic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Drivers and impacts of sediment deposition in Amazonian floodplains

Abstract The Amazon River carries enormous amounts of sediment from the Andes mountains, much of which is deposited in its floodplains. However, accurate quantification of the sediment sink at fine spatiotemporal scales is still challenging. Here, we present a high-resolution hydrodynamic-sediment model to simulate sediment deposition in a representative Amazon/Solimões floodplain. The process is found to be jointly driven by inundation, suspended sediment concentration in the Amazon River, and floodplain hydrodynamics and only weakly correlated with inundation level. By upscaling the sediment deposition rate (1.33 ± 0.24 kg m −2 yr −1 ), we estimate the trapping of 77.3 ± 13.9 Mt (or 6.1 ± 1%) of the Amazon River sediment by the Amazon/Solimões floodplains every year. Widespread deforestation would reduce the trapping efficiency of the floodplains over time, exacerbating downstream river aggradation. Additionally, we show that the deposition of sediment-associated organic carbon plays a minor role in fueling carbon dioxide and methane emissions in the Amazon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing analytical merits of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy of hydrogen isotopes using an orthogonal double-pulsing scheme

Accurate detection and quantification of hydrogen isotopes in solid materials are vital for diverse applications, including fusion energy, hydrogen storage, and tritium production. Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) is a well established, rapid, standoff method for this purpose, but it faces challenges related to the analytical merits required for isotopic analyses. In this study, we enhance the analytical and detection capabilities of traditional single-pulse LIBS by implementing an orthogonal double pulsing approach, focusing on the analysis of a range of 2 H concentrations in Zircaloy-4 substrates (acting as a proxy for 3 H). The double-pulse experiments employed an orthogonal re-heating configuration with two nanosecond Nd:YAG lasers. We systematically evaluated critical parameters affecting the signal intensity in double-pulse LIBS, including interpulse delay, ambient gas pressure, and heating laser energy. Finally, our results demonstrate that employing an orthogonal double-pulse scheme significantly enhances 2 H α emission while minimizing line broadening and self-absorption, ultimately improving the technique’s analytical capabilities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic projections of the Amery Ice Shelf catchment, Antarctica, under conditions of high ice-shelf basal melt

Abstract. Antarctica's Lambert Glacier drains about one-sixth of the ice from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and is considered stable due to the strong buttressing provided by the Amery Ice Shelf. While previous projections of the sea-level contribution from this sector of the ice sheet have predicted significant mass loss only with near-complete removal of the ice shelf, the ocean warming necessary for this was deemed unlikely. Recent climate projections through 2300 indicate that sufficient ocean warming is a distinct possibility after 2100. This work explores the impact of parametric uncertainty on projections of the response of the Lambert–Amery system (hereafter “the Amery sector”) to abrupt ocean warming through Bayesian calibration of a perturbed-parameter ice-sheet model ensemble. We address the computational cost of uncertainty quantification for ice-sheet model projections via statistical emulation, which employs surrogate models for fast and inexpensive parameter space exploration while retaining critical features of the high-fidelity simulations. To this end, we build Gaussian process (GP) emulators from simulations of the Amery sector at a medium resolution (4–20 km mesh) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS)-Albany Land Ice (MALI) model. We consider six input parameters that control basal friction, ice stiffness, calving, and ice-shelf basal melting. From these, we generate 200 perturbed input parameter initializations using space filling Sobol sampling. For our end-to-end probabilistic modeling workflow, we first train emulators on the simulation ensemble and then calibrate the input parameters using observations of the mass balance, grounding line movement, and calving front movement with priors assigned via expert knowledge. Next, we use MALI to project a subset of simulations to 2300 using ocean and atmosphere forcings from a climate model for both low- and high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios. From these simulation outputs, we build multivariate emulators by combining GP regression with principal component dimension reduction to emulate multivariate sea-level contribution time series data from the MALI simulations. We then use these emulators to propagate uncertainty from model input parameters to predictions of glacier mass loss through 2300, demonstrating that the calibrated posterior distributions have both greater mass loss and reduced variance compared to the uncalibrated prior distributions. Parametric uncertainty is large enough through about 2130 that the two projections under different emission scenarios are indistinguishable from one another. However, after rapid ocean warming in the first half of the 22nd century, the projections become statistically distinct within decades. Overall, this study demonstrates an efficient Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation workflow for ice-sheet model projections and identifies the potential for large sea-level rise contributions from the Amery sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet after 2100 under high-greenhouse-gas-emission scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification of regional net CO 2 flux errors in the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 model intercomparison project (MIP) ensemble using airborne measurements

Inverse model intercomparison projects (MIPs) provide a chance to assess the uncertainties in inversion estimates arising from various sources. However, accurately quantifying ensemble CO 2 flux errors remains challenging and often relies on the ensemble spread. This study proposes a method for quantifying the errors in regional net surface–atmosphere CO 2 flux estimates from models taken from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) v10 MIP by using independent airborne CO 2 measurements for the period 2015–2017. We first calculate the root mean square error (RMSE) between the ensemble mean of posterior CO 2 concentrations and airborne observations and then isolate the CO 2 concentration errors caused solely by the ensemble mean of posterior net fluxes by subtracting the observation, representation, and transport errors from seven regions. Our analysis reveals that the flux errors projected onto CO 2 space account for 55 %–85 % of the regional average RMSE over the 3 years, ranging from 0.88 to 1.91 ppm. In five regions, the error estimates based on observations exceed those computed from the ensemble spread of posterior fluxes by a factor of 1.33–1.93, implying an underestimation of the actual flux errors, while their magnitudes are comparable in two regions. The adjoint sensitivity analysis identifies that the underestimation of flux errors is prominent where the magnitudes of fossil fuel emissions exceed those of terrestrial-biosphere fluxes by a factor of 3–31 over the 3 years. This suggests the presence of systematic biases in the inversion estimates associated with errors in the prescribed fossil fuel emissions common to all models. Our study emphasizes the value of airborne measurements for quantifying regional errors in ensemble net CO 2 flux estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗