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At least 73 records · Page 4

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DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Electric Vehicle Electricity Demands and Charging Loads

After over a century of petroleum dominance, electric vehicles are rapidly disrupting the transportation energy landscape. At the same time, the electric power systems are undergoing profound changes as variable renewables replace dispatchable fossil generators. It is critically important to understand how transportation electrification will impact electricity demand, including changes in the load shapes that characterize the system, and the value of flexible electric vehicle charging to better balance electricity demand and supply. This talk focuses on methods to project electricity demand for EV charging with high spatiotemporal fidelity to enable electricity system modeling and analysis and summarizes results from recent NREL studies in this area.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fully Convolutional Spatio-Temporal Models for Representation Learning in Plasma Science

We have trained a fully convolutional spatio-temporal model for fast and accurate representation learning in the challenging exemplar application area of fusion energy plasma science. The onset of major disruptions is a critically important fusion energy science issue that must be resolved for advanced tokamak plasmas such as the $25B burning plasma international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) experiment. While a variety of statistical methods have been used to address the problem of tokamak disruption prediction and control, recent approaches based on deep learning have proven particularly compelling. In the present paper, we introduce further improvements to the fusion recurrent neural network (FRNN) software suite, which delivered cross-machine disruption predictions with unprecedented accuracy using a large database of experimental signals from two major tokamaks. Up to now, FRNN was based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) variant of recurrent neural networks to leverage the temporal information in the data. Here, we implement and apply the "temporal convolutional neural network (TCN)" architecture to the time-dependent input signals. Furthermore, this allows highly optimized convolution operations to carry the majority of the computational load of training, thus enabling a reduction in training time, and the effective use of high-performance computing resources for hyperparameter tuning. At the same time, the TCN-based architecture achieves better predictive performance when compared with the LSTM architecture for various tasks for a representative fusion database.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of disruptive designs for gas turbine components using direct energy deposition additive manufacturing

This research aims to develop a framework for establishing the correlation between in-situ monitoring data, process parameters, and microstructure evolution in blown-powder laser-directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM). To achieve this, a comprehensive manufacturing framework has been developed, spanning from in-situ data acquisition, melt-pool simulation, microstructure modeling, and statistical microstructure quantification. A machine learning-based surrogate model is constructed to predict melt pool geometry directly from in-situ coaxial camera data. The surrogate model is trained using outputs from a high-fidelity melt pool simulation, which provides accurate melt pool dimension data under varying process conditions. The predicted melt pool geometry is then used as input to a microstructure model to predict microstructural features. To rigorously compare and analyze microstructures, the project introduces statistical metrics that quantify differences based on key features such as morphology and texture. Microstructures are represented using advanced statistical descriptors including angular chord length distribution, two-point spatial statistics, orientation distribution function, and global spherical harmonic. These representations are used to compute four distinct “dissimilarity scores” that quantitatively capture differences in texture and morphology. This framework is demonstrated to enable automated calibration of simulation parameters by minimizing discrepancies between simulated and target microstructures. The technology developed in this project enables direct correlation between in-situ monitoring data and resulting microstructure, paving the way for adaptive microstructure control in metal AM. This capability strengthens the connection between process parameters and final material properties, facilitating more precise and reliable material design.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Alpha Particles Incident on MKID Chips for Quantum Sensitivity Analysis

Superconducting quantum devices, such as microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs), are highly sensitive instruments used in quantum computing and advanced sensing technologies. However, their extreme sensitivity also makes them vulnerable to background noise from natural sources like radiation. One significant contributor to this noise is alpha particles emitted by 210Po, a radon decay daughter that accumulates on surfaces near the detector. This project investigates how alpha particles emitted from 210Po interact with MKID chips. These particles can deposit energy on the detector surface, disrupting its operation and generating false signals. Understanding the energy and behavior of these particles is crucial for improving the design and reliability of quantum devices. To explore this, we first modeled the decay chain starting from 210Pb to 210Po using differential equations. This allowed us to predict how the activity of alpha-emitting isotopes changes over time, reaching a steady state after about two years. Next, we simulated alpha particle interactions with the MKID chip using the Geant4 software toolkit. We built a detailed computer model of the detector housing, including the copper lid where alpha particles originate, the silicon chip, and a thin aluminum sensor layer. Alpha particles were emitted isotropically from just beneath the copper lid’s surface, mimicking natural decay conditions. The simulation tracked how these particles deposit energy on the chip, generating electron-hole pairs and phonons. The results provide insight into the behavior of the resultant electron-hole pairs and phonons, giving us a clear understanding of the energy deposition distribution on the chip. This work supports efforts to mitigate background noise in superconducting sensors, advancing their use in quantum computing and sensitive physics experiments.

Hall, Matthew [Fermilab; UCLA]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Are You Resilient? Site Energy and Water Resilience Indicators

There is growing interest among operators of individual or co-located facilities to plan for utility disruptions caused by natural hazards and threats. Energy and water resilience at the site level can be characterized as the ability to withstand, adapt, and recover from an energy and/or water supply disruption. But how can a site’s energy and water resilience posture be measured? An evaluation framework with clear performance measures or indicators can help organizations establish what it means to be energy and water resilient and assess progress towards meeting resilience goals across sites and over time. Tracking a consistent set of indicators can help organizations identify problem areas that should be addressed and ascertain if energy and water resilience has improved as a result of investments or operational or policy changes. Resilience indicators also provide a means for organizations with geographically distributed sites to identify common problem areas that may require higher-level attention. This paper outlines an approach that organizations can use to measure site energy and water resilience. This approach was developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program as part of an effort to help federal agencies plan for energy and water resilience in a more systematic and rigorous way. The paper defines a general structure for defining energy and water resilience indicators, and provides example indicators and potential rating methods.

resilience, metrics for resilience, site resilienc↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scenarios of a Sustainable Energy Transition: Perspectives from the U.S.

The energy sector has been undergoing a significant transition over the past decade, which was accelerated in 2020 during the COVD-19 pandemic. This presentation provides an overview of energy trends in the U.S., including electricity, oil and gas, coal, and renewables, the impact of the pandemic in 2020, and forecasts for recovery. Scenarios of energy use and future integrated technologies are outlined as near and mid-term approaches. The presentation concludes with potential U.S. policy priorities focused on energy and economic recovery, as well as perspectives on energy planning from the disruptions of 2020. The presentation is part of day-long series of presentations covering post-COVID-19 energy responses in Asia, Australia, Europe, and the United States.

COVID-19↗

DOE OSTI2020

Runaway electron seed formation at reactor-relevant temperature

Systematic variation of the pre-disruption core electron temperature (T e ) from 1 to 12 keV using an internal transport barrier scenario reveals a dramatic increase in the production of ‘seed’ runaway electrons (REs), ultimately accessing near-complete conversion of the pre-disruption current into sub-MeV RE current. Injected Ar pellets are observed to ablate more intensely and promptly as T e rises. At high T e , the observed ablation exceeds predictions from published thermal ablation models. Simultaneously, the thermal quench (TQ) is observed to significantly shorten with increasing T e —a surprising result. While the reason for the shorter TQ is not yet understood, candidate mechanisms include: insufficiently accurate thermal ablation models, enhanced ablation driven by the seed RE population, or significant parallel heat transport along stochastic fields. Kinetic modeling that self-consistently treats the plasma cooling via radiation, the induced electric field, and the formation of the seed RE is performed. Including the combined effect of the inherent dependence of hot-tail RE seeding on T e together with the shortened TQ, modeling recovers the progression towards near-complete conversion of the pre-disruption current to RE current as T e rises. Measurement of the HXR spectrum during the early current quench (CQ) reveals a trend of decreasing energy with pre-disruption T e . At the very highest T e (≈ 12 keV), ≈ 100% conversion of the thermal current to runaway current is found. The energy of this peculiar RE beam is inferred to be sub-MeV as it emits vanishingly few MeV hard x-rays (HXRs). These measurements demonstrate novel TQ dynamics as Te is varied and illustrate the limitations of treating the RE seed formation problem without considering the inter-related dependencies of the pellet ablation, radiative energy loss, and resultant variations of the TQ duration. Finally, if the observed shortening of the TQ with increasing T e extends to fusion-grade plasmas, than their propensity to form large quantities of RE seeds at high T e may be far worse than previously thought. Positively, the high T e scenario in DIII-D produces REs so prodigiously that it can serve as a meaningful new platform for demonstrating RE avoidance techniques.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance: DistribuTECH Workshop

Idaho National Laboratory, the Department of Energy’s Grid Deployment Office, and other national laboratories are collaborating to ensure the U.S. energy infrastructure is reliable, resilient, and secure. This involves strategically leveraging digital technologies to modernize the grid, enhance its resilience against all hazards and disruptions, and fortify national energy security across a diverse energy portfolio. In this workshop you will learn about Idaho National Lab’s Technical Assistance programs, where organizations will be matched with a national laboratory subject matter expert to focus on their key topical area. The technical assistance offered through this track is designed to be responsive to a rapidly changing regulatory landscape and cutting-edge technologies that enhance grid reliability and efficiency. Users will be guided through a tailored analysis and mitigation program to determine their current security posture and given assistance in evaluating supply chain and protection choices against potential consequences.

Digital assurance↗

DOE OSTI2022

Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced defrosting techniques in air source heat pumps: A review of vapor injection, thermal energy storage, and experimental frost accumulation data

Electrification is a critical step for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from heating. Air source heat pumps (ASHPs) are a promising alternative to fossil fuel-based systems due to their high coefficients of performance (COP), dual heating and cooling capability, and lower carbon footprint. However, for ASHPs to achieve widespread adoption, they must operate reliably across all climates, including cold regions. Additionally, defrosting techniques should be energy efficient and minimally disruptive to indoor comfort. Vapor injection (VI) technology can address the high-pressure and high-temperature lift challenges encountered in low ambient conditions. More recently, in addition to enhancing heating performance, VI has also been shown to improve the speed and efficiency of reverse cycle defrosting. Likewise, thermal energy storage (TES) has steadily gained attention for its ability to serve as an auxiliary heat source during both normal operation and defrosting. This review analyzes the benefits and limitations of VI- and TES-assisted defrosting approaches. While both technologies show strong potential individually, no studies to date have explored their combined use in ASHP systems. Additionally, to support continued development of defrosting strategies, both in modeling and experimental work, it is critical to establish frost accumulation data under a range of operating conditions. By compiling the available data from the literature, this paper also highlights the limited availability of such experimental data and the wide variation in frosting and defrosting durations and termination criteria, which are often influenced by system design and test setups.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep convolutional neural networks for multi-scale time-series classification and application to tokamak disruption prediction using raw, high temporal resolution diagnostic data

In this paper we discuss recent advances in deep convolutional neural networks (CNN) for sequence learning, which allow identifying long-range, multi-scale phenomena in long sequences, such as those found in fusion plasmas. We point out several benefits of these deep CNN architectures, such as not requiring experts such as physicists to hand-craft input data features, the ability to capture longer range dependencies compared to the more common sequence neural networks (recurrent neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM) networks), and the comparative computational efficiency. We apply this neural network architecture to the popular problem of disruption prediction in fusion energy tokamaks, utilizing raw data from a single diagnostic, the Electron Cyclotron Emission imaging (ECEi) diagnostic from the DIII-D tokamak. Initial results trained on a large ECEi dataset show promise, achieving an F 1 -score of ~91% on individual time-slices using only the ECEi data. This indicates the ECEi diagnostic by itself can be sensitive to a number of pre-disruption markers useful for predicting disruptions on timescales not only for mitigation but also avoidance. Future opportunities for utilizing these deep CNN architectures with fusion data are outlined, including impact of recent upgrades to the ECEi diagnostic.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Disruption avoidance via radio frequency current condensation in magnetic islands produced by off-normal events

This article discusses the use of radio frequency (RF) current drive to stabilize large islands, focusing on nonlinear effects that appear when relatively high powers are used to stabilize large islands. We are interested in developing a capability to stabilize large islands via RF driven currents to avoid the need for mitigation to the extent possible. As tokamaks are designed and built with increasing levels of stored energy in the plasma, disruptions become increasingly dangerous. It has been reported that 95% of the disruptions in the Joint European Torus tokamak with the ITER-like wall are preceded by the growth of large locked islands. These large islands are mostly produced by off-normal events other than neoclassical tearing modes. This paper presents theory and modeling for a nonlinear “RF current condensation” effect that can concentrate the RF driven current near the center of a large island, thereby increasing the efficiency of the stabilization. A nonlinear shadowing effect can hinder the stabilization of islands if the aiming of the ray trajectories does not properly consider the nonlinear effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluate the System-Level Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles Coupled with Shared Mobility: An Agent-based Simulation Approach

With the rapid growth of information and communication technologies, Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) are deemed to be disruptive with the potential to significantly improve overall transportation system efficiency, however, may bring Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) increase or other issues. Further, shared mobility systems are another disruptive force that is reshaping our travel patterns. To quantify the combined impact of CAV and shared mobility on travel behavior, traffic performance and energy efficiency, we develop a mesoscopic simulation-based framework for mobility and energy efficiency evaluation considering the disruptive transportation technologies. Under this framework, we develop novel models for energy intensity and modal activity, and evaluated a variety of energy scenarios for different combinations of CAV applications, various levels of automation, roadway characteristics, and traffic conditions, while also varying different vehicle types and fuel/powertrain technologies. Based applying this modeling suite to a calibrated BEAM simulation network in Riverside California, it was found that cooperative automated driving in general will improve mobility, but automated vehicles, even when deployed in a shared autonomous fleet, will likely bring an increase of VMT (up to 36%) due to mode shifts and deadheading. Ride-hailing vehicles typically have better energy efficiency and a higher share of electric vehicles, which helps offset the negative impact from VMT increases when estimating the system-level energy consumption. In general, simulation results show a 6% increase in energy consumption for the scenarios with an increasing shift to ride-hailing modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tidal disruption events and dark matter scatterings with neutrinos and photons

Stars can be tidally disrupted when passing near a black hole, and the debris can induce a flux of high-energy neutrinos. It has been discussed that there are hints in IceCube data of high-energy neutrinos produced in Tidal Disruption Events. The emitting region of neutrinos and photons in these astrophysical events is likely to be located in the vicinity of the central black hole, where the dark matter density might be significantly larger than in the outer regions of the galaxy. We explore the potential attenuation of the emitted neutrino and photon fluxes due to interactions with dark matter particles around the supermassive black hole of the host galaxies of AT2019dsg, AT2019fdr and AT2019aalc, and study the implications for some well-motivated models of dark matter-neutrino and dark matter-photon interactions. Furthermore, we discuss the complementarity of our constraints with values of the dark matter-neutrino scattering cross section proven to alleviate some cosmological tensions.

Fujiwara, Motoko↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advancing Electric System Resilience with Distributed Energy Resources: A Review of State Policies

Severe weather, cyber-attacks, geomagnetic disturbances, and other hazards and threats have caused or have the potential to cause substantial levels of damage to electricity infrastructure and the global economy. Growth in distributed energy resources (DERs) and increasing attention to the resilience of the electric grid - its ability to "anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover" from disruptions, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC, 2018) - have created an opportunity for energy stakeholders to develop and deploy "resilient DERs," resources in the distribution grid that improve the ability of a customer, critical facility, and/or the distribution system in general to anticipate, absorb, adapt to, and/or rapidly recover from disruptions. This paper explores how existing state regulations intersect with resilience and highlights opportunities where state regulators can employ DERs to advance resilience.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Resilience Database for Assessing Microgrid Formation Capability and Enhancing Power Grid Resilience

In the face of increasing frequency of extreme events, enhancing resilience and reliability of energy infrastructure demands innovative solutions. Hydropower, with its inherent generation flexibility and grid-forming capability, offers significant potential for enhancing power grid resilience through the establishment of microgrids. To enable informed decision-making and strategic planning, we present the Hydropower Resilience Database (HRD) that integrates data from various sources such as Oakridge National Laboratory (ORNL) HydroSource, National Inventory of Dams, and US Western Grid database. By integrating relevant information on hydropower plant characteristics, including dams, reservoirs, and connected electrical grid, this resource enables hydropower plant owners, utilities, and community stakeholders to identify and evaluate the feasibility of using hydropower resources in microgrids to support nearby communities and critical infrastructure in various challenging scenarios. Using HRD, a set of metrics are evaluated to quantify the capability of hydropower plants to support essential microgrid functions. An interactive tool is developed using ArcGIS, enabling the visualization and analysis using HRD. Our research contributes to strategic planning efforts for fortifying energy infrastructure, ensuring reliable power supply during disruptions, and advancing the development of robust and resilient energy systems in regions susceptible to grid vulnerabilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Resilience Database for Assessing Microgrid Formation Capability and Enhancing Power Grid Resilience

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗