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NASA NTRS1990

The Advanced Solar Observatory

A conceptual plan for the development of a comprehensive long duration solar space observatory, The Advanced Solar Observatory (ASO) is described. The ASO is intended to provide solar astronomers with the observational power necessary to address fundamental problems relating to the solar convection zone and activity cycle; the thermal and nonthermal processes that control the transport of energy, mass, and magnetic flux in the solar atmosphere; the generation of the solar wind; and the dynamics of the inner heliosphere. The ASO concept encompasses three proposed Space Station-based instrument ensembles: (1) the High Resolution Telescope Cluster, which includes far ultraviolet, extreme ultraviolet, and X-ray telescopes; (2) the Pinhole/Occulter Facility, which includes Fourier transform and coded aperture hard X-ray and gamma ray telescopes and occulted ultraviolet and visible light coronagraphs; and (3) the High Energy Facility, which contains neutron, gamma ray, and low frequency radio spectrometers. Two other facilities, the Orbiting Solar Laboratory, and a package of Global Dynamics Instrumentation, will, with the Space Station ensembles, form a comprehensive capability for solar physics. The scientific program of the ASO, current instrument concepts for the Space Station based ASO instrument ensembles, and plans for their accommodation on the Space Station are described.

Walker, Arthur B. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Feature Map

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed based on an ensemble of local linear models of the nonlinear system dynamics for a transonic wind tunnel. The local linear models are estimated directly from the weights of a Self Organizing Feature Map (SOFM). Local linear modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems with the SOFM is extended to a control framework where the modeled system is nonautonomous, driven by an exogenous input. This extension to a control framework is based on the consideration of a finite number of subregions in the control space. Multiple self organizing feature maps collectively model the global response of the wind tunnel to a finite set of representative prototype controls. These prototype controls partition the control space and incorporate experimental knowledge gained from decades of operation. Each SOFM models the combination of the tunnel with one of the representative controls, over the entire range of operation. The SOFM based linear models are used to predict the tunnel response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal. Each SOFM provides a codebook representation of the tunnel dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the minimization of a similarity metric which is the essence of the self organizing feature of the map. Thus, the SOFM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme than selects the best available model for the applied control. Experimental results of controlling the wind tunnel, with the proposed method, during operational runs where strict research requirements on the control of the Mach number were met, are presented. Comparison to similar runs under the same conditions with the tunnel controlled by either the existing controller or an expert operator indicate the superiority of the method.

Motter, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Map

Mark A. Motter↗

NASA NTRS2015

Structure and Dynamics of Interfaces: Drops and Films

We aim to acquire measurements of the structure and dynamics of certain liquid-fluid interfaces using an ensemble of techniques in collaboration: (1) Total internal reflection (TIR) Surface light scattering spectroscopy (SLSS), (2) Brewster angle microscopy (BAM), and (3) Drop-shape analysis. SLSS and BAM can be done on a shared interfacial footprint. Results using a 50-50 mixture of pentane-isohexane, which extends the range of NASA's Confined Vapor Bubble (CVB) experiment, yield surface tension results that differ from the expected Langmuir Fit. These results were confirmed using both the SLSS and drop-shape analysis approaches.

pentane-isohexane mixture↗

NASA NTRS2009

The Principle of Energetic Consistency

A basic result in estimation theory is that the minimum variance estimate of the dynamical state, given the observations, is the conditional mean estimate. This result holds independently of the specifics of any dynamical or observation nonlinearity or stochasticity, requiring only that the probability density function of the state, conditioned on the observations, has two moments. For nonlinear dynamics that conserve a total energy, this general result implies the principle of energetic consistency: if the dynamical variables are taken to be the natural energy variables, then the sum of the total energy of the conditional mean and the trace of the conditional covariance matrix (the total variance) is constant between observations. Ensemble Kalman filtering methods are designed to approximate the evolution of the conditional mean and covariance matrix. For them the principle of energetic consistency holds independently of ensemble size, even with covariance localization. However, full Kalman filter experiments with advection dynamics have shown that a small amount of numerical dissipation can cause a large, state-dependent loss of total variance, to the detriment of filter performance. The principle of energetic consistency offers a simple way to test whether this spurious loss of variance limits ensemble filter performance in full-blown applications. The classical second-moment closure (third-moment discard) equations also satisfy the principle of energetic consistency, independently of the rank of the conditional covariance matrix. Low-rank approximation of these equations offers an energetically consistent, computationally viable alternative to ensemble filtering. Current formulations of long-window, weak-constraint, four-dimensional variational methods are designed to approximate the conditional mode rather than the conditional mean. Thus they neglect the nonlinear bias term in the second-moment closure equation for the conditional mean. The principle of energetic consistency implies that, to precisely the extent that growing modes are important in data assimilation, this term is also important.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Project Link!: Dynamics and Control of In-Flight Wing Tip Docking

Project Link! is a NASA-led effort to study the feasibility of multi-aircraft aerial docking systems. In these systems, a group of vehicles physically link to each other during flight to form a larger ensemble vehicle with increased aerodynamic performance and mission utility. This paper presents a dynamic model and control architecture for a system of fixed-wing vehicles with this capability. The dynamic model consists of the 6 degree-of-freedom fixed-wing aircraft equations of motion, a spring-damper-magnet system to represent the linkage force between constituent vehicles, and the NASA-Burnham-Hallock wingtip vortex model to represent the close-proximity aerodynamic interactions between constituents before the linking occurs. The control architecture consists of a guidance algorithm to autonomously drive the constituents towards their linking partners and an inner-loop angular rate controller. A simulation was constructed from the model, and the flight dynamic modes of the linked system were compared to the individual vehicles. Simulation results for both before and after linking are presented.

Cooper, John R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Application of laser velocimetry to unsteady flows in large scale, high speed tunnels

The optical, seeding, and data reduction procedures which have been used in the successful application of laser velocimetry to large-scale, unsteady, transonic wind-tunnel testing are described. Flowfield measurements obtained at several facilities are presented. These results include vortex flow measurements and ensemble-averaged data obtained under conditions of vortex-shedding, dynamic stall airfoil oscillation, oscillating trailing-edge control flaps, and helicopter rotor flow fields.

Owen, F. K.↗

NASA NTRS1997

An Application of the "Virtual Spacecraft" Concept in Evaluation of the Mars Pathfinder Lander Low Gain Antenna

The virtual spacecraft concept is embodied in a set of subsystems, either in the form of hardware or computational models, which together represent all, or a portion of, a spacecraft. For example, the telecommunications transponder may be a hardware prototype while the propulsion system may exist only as a simulation. As the various subsystems are realized in hardware, the spacecraft becomes progressively less virtual. This concept is enabled by JPL's Mission System Testbed which is a set of networked workstations running a message passing operating system called "TRAMEL" which stands for Task Remote Asynchronous Message Exchange Layer. Each simulation on the workstations, which may in fact be hardware controlled by the workstation, "publishes" its operating parameters on TRAMEL and other simulations requiring those parameters as input may "subscribe" to them. In this manner, the whole simulation operates as a single virtual system. This paper describes a simulation designed to evaluate a communications link between the earth and the Mars Pathfinder Lander module as it descends under a parachute through the Martian atmosphere toward the planet's surface. This link includes a transmitter and a low gain antenna on the spacecraft and a receiving antenna and receiver on the earth as well as a simulation of the dynamics of the spacecraft. The transmitter, the ground station antenna, the receiver and the dynamics are all simulated computationally while the spacecraft antenna is implemented in hardware on a very simple spacecraft mockup. The dynamics simulation is a record of one output of the ensemble of outputs of a Monte Carlo simulation of the descent. Additionally, the antenna/spacecraft mock-up system was simulated using APATCH, a shooting and bouncing ray code developed by Demaco, Inc. The antenna simulation, the antenna hardware, and the link simulation are all physically located in different facilities at JPL separated by several hundred meters and are linked via the local area network (LAN).

Pogorzelski, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Toward Integrated Seasonal Predictions of Land and Ocean Carbon Flux: Lessons from the 2015-16 El Nino

Seasonal forecasts made by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) are increasingly able to provide skillful forecasts of climate anomalies. At some centers, the capabilities of these models are being expanded to represent carbon-climate feedbacks including ocean biogeochemistry (OB), terrestrial biosphere (TB) interactions, and fires. These advances raise the question of whether such models can support skillful forecasts of carbon fluxes.Here, we examine whether land and ocean carbon flux anomalies associated with the 2015-16 El Nino could have been predicted months in advance. This El Nino was noteworthy for the magnitude of the ocean temperature perturbation, the skill with which this perturbation was predicted, and the extensive satellite observations that can be used to track its impact. We explore this topic using NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model, which routinely produces an ensemble of seasonal climate forecasts, and a suite of offline dynamical and statistical models that estimate carbon flux processes. Using GEOS forecast fields from 2015-16 to force flux model hindcasts shows that these models are able to reproduce significant features observed by satellites. Specifically, OB hindcasts are able to predict anomalies in chlorophyll distributions with lead times of 3-4 months. The ability of TB hindcasts to reproduce NDVI anomalies is driven by the skill of the climate forecast, which is greatest at short lead times over tropical landmasses. Statistical fire forecasts driven by ocean climate indices are able to predict burned area in the tropics with lead times of 3-12 months. We also integrate the ocean and land hindcast fluxes into the GEOS GCM to examine the magnitude of the atmospheric carbon dioxide anomaly and compare with satellite and ground-based observations.While seasonal forecasting remains an active area of research, these results demonstrate that forecasts of carbon flux processes can support a variety of applications, potentially allowing scientists to understand carbon-climate feedbacks as they happen and to capitalize on more flexible satellite technologies that allow areas of interest to be targeted with lead times of weeks to months. We also provide a first glimpse at the spring 2019 carbon forecast using the GEOS-based forecasting system.

Ott, L.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqui↗

NASA NTRS2011

MoSST DAS: The First Working Geomagnetic Data Assimilation System

The Earth possesses an internal magnetic field (geomagnetic field) generated by convection in the outer core (geodynamo). Previous efforts have been focused along two distinct paths: (1) numerical geodynamo modeling to understand the origin of the geomagnetic field, and the mechanisms of geomagnetic secular variations (SV); and (2) geomagnetic field modeling to map the spatial/temporal variations of the field from geomagnetic data, and to derive core properties, e.g. inversion of core flow near the core-mantle boundary (CMB). Geomagnetic data assimilation is a new approach emerged over the past 5 years: surface observations are assimilated with geodynamo models for better understanding of the core dynamical state, and accurately prediction of SV. In collaboration with several geomagnetic research groups, we have developed the first working geomagnetic data assimilation system, Modular, Scalable, Self-consistent, and Three-dimensional (MoSST) DAS, that includes the MoSST numerical dynamo model; 7000 years of geomagnetic field maps from several field models utilizing satellite and ground observatory data, historical magnetic records and archeo/paleo magnetic data; and an ensemble based optimal interpolation (01) assimilation algorithm. With this system, we have demonstrated clearly that the assimilated core dynamical state is substantially different from those of pure geodynamo simulations. Ensemble assimilation runs also show the convergence of the assimilated solutions inside the core, suggesting that the simulation state is pulled closer to the truth via data assimilation. The forecasts from this system are also very accurate: the 5-year forecast of the geomagnetic field agrees very well with the observations; and the 5-year secular variation forecast is more accurate than the IGRF SV forecast models in the past. Using geomagnetic records up to 2009, we have made an SV forecast for the period from 2010-2015, and is a candidate SV model for IGRF-11.

Kuang, Weijia↗

NASA NTRS1989

Computational chaos in massively parallel neural networks

A fundamental issue which directly impacts the scalability of current theoretical neural network models to massively parallel embodiments, in both software as well as hardware, is the inherent and unavoidable concurrent asynchronicity of emerging fine-grained computational ensembles and the possible emergence of chaotic manifestations. Previous analyses attributed dynamical instability to the topology of the interconnection matrix, to parasitic components or to propagation delays. However, researchers have observed the existence of emergent computational chaos in a concurrently asynchronous framework, independent of the network topology. Researcher present a methodology enabling the effective asynchronous operation of large-scale neural networks. Necessary and sufficient conditions guaranteeing concurrent asynchronous convergence are established in terms of contracting operators. Lyapunov exponents are computed formally to characterize the underlying nonlinear dynamics. Simulation results are presented to illustrate network convergence to the correct results, even in the presence of large delays.

Barhen, Jacob↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known Gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions (e.g., Miller 1994). Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz (1963) model as well as more realistic models of the oceans (Evensen and van Leeuwen 1996) and atmosphere (Houtekamer and Mitchell 1998). A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter equations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members (Burgers 1998). The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to quite puzzling in that results of state estimate are worse than for their filter analogue (Evensen 1997). In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use Lorenz (1963) model to test and compare the behavior of a variety implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqiu↗

NASA NTRS2007

Influences of Local Sea-Surface Temperatures and Large-scale Dynamics on Monthly Precipitation Inferred from Two 10-year GCM-Simulations

Two parallel sets of 10-year long: January 1, 1982 to December 31, 1991, simulations were made with the finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) in which the model integrations were forced with prescribed sea-surface temperature fields (SSTs) available as two separate SST-datasets. One dataset contained naturally varying monthly SSTs for the chosen period, and the oth& had the 12-monthly mean SSTs for the same period. Plots of evaporation, precipitation, and atmosphere-column moisture convergence, binned by l C SST intervals show that except for the tropics, the precipitation is more strongly constrained by large-scale dynamics as opposed to local SST. Binning data by SST naturally provided an ensemble average of data contributed from disparate locations with same SST; such averages could be expected to mitigate all location related influences. However, the plots revealed: i) evaporation, vertical velocity, and precipitation are very robust and remarkably similar for each of the two simulations and even for the data from 1987-ENSO-year simulation; ii) while the evaporation increased monotonically with SST up to about 27 C, the precipitation did not; iii) precipitation correlated much better with the column vertical velocity as opposed to SST suggesting that the influence of dynamical circulation including non-local SSTs is stronger than local-SSTs. The precipitation fields were doubly binned with respect to SST and boundary-layer mass and/or moisture convergence. The analysis discerned the rate of change of precipitation with local SST as a sum of partial derivative of precipitation with local SST plus partial derivative of precipitation with boundary layer moisture convergence multiplied by the rate of change of boundary-layer moisture convergence with SST (see Eqn. 3 of Section 4.5). This analysis is mathematically rigorous as well as provides a quantitative measure of the influence of local SST on the local precipitation. The results were recast to examine the dependence of local rainfall on local SSTs; it was discernible only in the tropics. Our methodology can be used for computing relationship between any forcing function and its effect(s) on a chosen field.

Sud, Y. C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Localized Ensemble Kalman Smoother

Numerous geophysical inverse problems prove difficult because the available measurements are indirectly related to the underlying unknown dynamic state and the physics governing the system may involve imperfect models or unobserved parameters. Data assimilation addresses these difficulties by combining the measurements and physical knowledge. The main challenge in such problems usually involves their high dimensionality and the standard statistical methods prove computationally intractable. This paper develops and addresses the theoretical convergence of a new high-dimensional Monte-Carlo approach called the localized ensemble Kalman smoother.

recursive estimation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Architecture and Dynamics of Kepler's Multi-Transiting Planet Systems.III. Comprehensive Investigation Using All Four Years of Kepler Mission Data

We study the orbital architectures of planetary systems orbiting within ∼1 AU of their stars by analyzing the ensemble of Kepler systems having two or more planet candidates. We use data from the entire Kepler mission, and in many cases we apply improved analysis techniques (e.g., replacing histograms by top-hat Kernel Density Estimators that avoid the loss of information resulting from choosing a particular phase for the bin boundaries) to extend and enhance the studies of Lissauer et al. (2011, ApJS 197, 8) and Fabrycky et al. (2014, ApJ 790, 146).These data show ~ 1700 transiting planet candidates in > 600 multiple-planet systems, far more than were available for our previous two studies. The increased numbers and better information about planetary radii and the properties of stellar hosts made possible by Gaia DR2 allow more statistically-robust analyses of the entire ensemble of Kepler multis as well as independent analyses of subsets of the population. We are thus able to contrast the dynamical configurations of small and large planets, short-period and longer-period planets, and planets orbiting various types of host stars. We reinforce our previous findings that most pairs of planets within the same system are neither in nor near low-order mean motion resonances and that there is a substantial excess of planets having period ratios slightly larger than those of first-order mean-motion resonances. However, neglecting three systems whose planets are locked in 3- body resonances and summing over all first-order mean motion resonances, the deficit of planet pairs with period ratios just narrow of resonance is as large as the excess of planets wide of resonance (within statistical uncertainties), suggesting that overall there is no overall excess of planet pairs in the vicinity of resonance. Other aspects of our study, including estimates of the typical relative inclinations of planetary orbits and their variations as functions of orbital period, planet sizes and stellar properties, are in progress, with results expected to be available for presentation by the time of the conference.

Lissauer, Jack↗

NASA NTRS1995

Dynamic response of a pulsed Burke-Schumann diffusion flame

Turbulent flames are often envisioned as an ensemble of random vortices interacting with the combustion process. A better understanding of the vortex-flame interactions therefore would be useful in improving the modeling of turbulent diffusion flames. Substantial simplification may be made by investigating controlled interactions in a laminar flame, as opposed to random interactions in a turbulent flame. The general goals of the research project are to improve our understanding of (1) the influence of buoyancy on co-flow diffusion flames and (2) the effects of buoyancy on vortex-flame interactions in co-flow diffusion flames. As a first step toward objective (2), we conducted a joint experimental and numerical investigation of the vortex-flame interaction. Vortices were produced by mechanically pulsing the fuel flow at a low frequency, e.g., 10 Hz. Experiments were conducted using a nonflickering Burke-Schumann flame in both microgravity (mu-g) and normal gravity (1g) as a means of varying the buoyant force without modification of the pressure (i.e., density). The effects of buoyant convection may then be determined by a comparison of the mu-g and 1g results. The mu-g results may also reveal the important mechanisms which are masked or overwhelmed by buoyant convection in 1g. A numerical investigation was conducted using a validated, time-accurate numerical code to study the underlying physics during the flame interaction and to assist the interpretation of the experimental results.

Sheu, Jyh-Cherng↗

NASA NTRS1993

A preliminary study of the tropical water cycle and its sensitivity to surface warming

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCEM) has been used to demonstrate that cumulus-scale dynamics and microphysics play a major role in determining the vertical distribution of water vapor and clouds in the tropical atmosphere. The GCEM is described and is the basic structure of cumulus convection. The long-term equilibrium response to tropical convection to surface warming is examined. A picture of the water cycle within tropical cumulus clusters is developed.

Lau, K. M.↗