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Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Mars-GRAM Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that Mars-GRAM when used for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3 is less than realistic. A comparison study between Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars- GRAM and measurements by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) has been undertaken for locations of varying latitudes, Ls, and LTST on Mars. The preliminary results from this study have validated the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) limb data. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars- GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. Unrealistic energy absorption by uniform atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes. To solve this pressure-density problem, a density factor value was determined for tau=.3, 1 and 3 that will adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 with MapYears 1 and 2 MGCM output at comparable dust loading. Currently, these density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls. Results will be presented of the work underway to derive better multipliers by including possible variation with latitude and/or Ls. This is achieved by comparison of Mars-GRAM MapYear=0 output with TES limb data. The addition of these density factors to Mars-GRAM will improve the results of the sensitivity studies done for large optical depths. Answers may also be provided to the issues raised in a recent study by Desai(2008). Desai has shown that the actual landing sites of Mars Pathfinder, the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Phoenix Mars Lander have been further downrange than predicted by models prior to landing. Desai s reconstruction of their entries into the Martian atmosphere showed that the models consistently predicted higher densities than those found upon EDL. The solution of this problem would be important to the Mars Program since future exploration of Mars by landers and rovers will require more accurate landing capabilities, especially for the proposed Mars Sample Return mission.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

STS-13 (41-C) BET products

Results from the STS-13 (41-C) Shuttle entry flight are presented. The entry trajectory was reconstructed from an altitude of 700 kft through rollout on Runway 17 at EAFB. The anchor epoch utilized was April 13, 1984 13(h)1(m)30.(s)0 (46890(s).0) GMT. The final reconstructed inertial trajectory for this flight is BT13M23 under user catalog 169750N. Trajectory reconstruction and Extended BET development are discussed in Section 1 and 2, respectively. The NOAA totem-pole atmosphere extracted from the JSC/TRW BET was adopted in the development of the LaRC Extended BET, namely ST13BET/UN=274885C. The Aerodynamic BET was generated on physical nine track reel NC0728 with a duplicate copy on NC0740 for back-up. Plots of the more relevant parameters from the AEROBET are presented in Section 3. Section 4 discusses the MMLE input files created for STS-13. Appendices are attached which present spacecraft and physical constants utilized (Appendix A), residuals by station and data type (Appendix B), a two second spaced listing of trajectory and air data parameters (Appendix C), and input and output source products for archival (Appendix D).

Findlay, J. T.↗

The Orbiter Experiments (OEX) Program

The objective of the Orbiter Experiments (OEX) program is to obtain research quality flight data for the augmentation and advancement of space transportation technologies. This includes the validation and advancement of analytical theories and of ground-test methods and techniques. The following topics are discussed: aerothermodynamic design tool development and validation; the freestream environment; trajectory reconstruction; atmospheric reconstruction; the Shuttle Entry Air Data System (SEADS); the Shuttle Upper Atmosphere Mass Spectrometer (SUMS); and aerodynamic forces and moments. The discussion is presented in vugraph form.

Throckmorton, David A.↗

The Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument (HASI): Expected Results at Titan and Performance Verification in Terrestrial Atmosphere

The Huygens ASI is a multi-sensor package resulting from an international cooperation, it has been designed to measure the physical quantities characterizing Titan's atmosphere during the Huygens probe mission. On 14th January, 2005, HASI will measure acceleration, pressure, temperature and electrical properties all along the Huygens probe descent on Titan in order to study Titan s atmospheric structure, dynamics and electric properties. Monitoring axial and normal accelerations and providing direct pressure and temperature measurements during the descent, HASI will mainly contribute to the Huygens probe entry and trajectory reconstruction. In order to simulate the Huygens probe descent and verify HASI sensors performance in terrestrial environment, stratospheric balloon flight experiment campaigns have been performed, in collaboration with the Italian Space Agency (ASI). The results of flight experiments have allowed to determine the atmospheric vertical profiles and to obtain a set of data for the analysis of probe trajectory and attitude reconstruction.

Ferri, F.↗

Comparison of Mars Atmospheric Density Estimates from Models to Measurements from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Data

A recent study (Desai, 2008) has shown that the actual landing sites of Mars Pathfinder, the Mars Exploration Rovers (Spirit and Opportunity) and the Phoenix Mars Lander have been further downrange than predicted by models prior to landing Desai's reconstruction of their entries into the Martian atmosphere showed that the models consistently predicted higher densities than those found upon entry, descent and landing. Desai's results have raised a question as to whether there is a systemic problem within Mars atmospheric models. Proposal is to compare Mars atmospheric density estimates from Mars atmospheric models to measurements made by Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). Comparison study requires the completion of several tasks that would result in a greater understanding of reasons behind the discrepancy found during recent landings on Mars and possible solutions to this problem.

Justh, Hilary L.↗

Aerodynamic and Aerothermal TPS Instrumentation Reference Guide

The hypersonic regime of planetary entry combines the most severe environments that an entry vehicle will encounter with the greatest amount of uncertainty as to the events unfolding during that time period. This combination generally leads to conservatism in the design of an entry vehicle, specifically that of the thermal protection system (TPS). Each planetary entry provides a valuable aerodynamic and aerothermal testing opportunity; the utilization of this opportunity is paramount in better understanding how a specific entry vehicle responds to the demands of the hypersonic entry environment. Previous efforts have been made to instrument entry vehicles in order to collect data during the entry period and reconstruct the corresponding vehicle response. The purpose of this paper is to cumulatively document past TPS instrumentation designs for applicable planetary missions, as well as to list pertinent results and any explainable shortcomings.

Thermal Protection System↗

Entry, Descent, and Landing Performance of the Mars Phoenix Lander

On May 25, 2008, the Mars Phoenix Lander successfully landed on the northern arctic plains of Mars. An overview of a preliminary reconstruction analysis performed on each entry, descent, and landing phase to assess the performance of Phoenix as it descended is presented and a comparison to pre-entry predictions is provided. The landing occurred 21 km further downrange than the predicted landing location. Analysis of the flight data revealed that the primary cause of Phoenix s downrange landing was a higher trim total angle of attack during the hypersonic phase of the entry, which resulted in Phoenix flying a slightly lifting trajectory. The cause of this higher trim attitude is not known at this time. Parachute deployment was 6.4 s later than prediction. This later deployment time was within the variations expected and is consistent with a lifting trajectory. The parachute deployment and inflation process occurred as expected with no anomalies identified. The subsequent parachute descent and powered terminal landing also behaved as expected. A preliminary reconstruction of the landing day atmospheric density profile was found to be lower than the best apriori prediction, ranging from a few percent less to a maximum of 8%. A comparison of the flight reconstructed trajectory parameters shows that the actual Phoenix entry, descent, and landing was close to pre-entry predictions. This reconstruction investigation is currently ongoing and the results to date are in the process of being refined.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

IRVE-3 Post-Flight Reconstruction

The Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment 3 (IRVE-3) was conducted from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility on July 23, 2012. Launched on a Black Brant XI sounding rocket, the IRVE-3 research vehicle achieved an apogee of 469 km, deployed and inflated a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), re-entered the Earth's atmosphere at Mach 10 and achieved a peak deceleration of 20 g's before descending to splashdown roughly 20 minutes after launch. This paper presents the filtering methodology and results associated with the development of the Best Estimated Trajectory of the IRVE-3 flight test. The reconstructed trajectory is compared against project requirements and pre-flight predictions of entry state, aerodynamics, HIAD flexibility, and attitude control system performance.

Olds, Aaron D.↗

Reconstruction of the 1st Space Shuttle (STS-1) entry trajectory

A discussion of the generation of the best estimate trajectory (BET) of the first Space Shuttle Orbiter entry flight is presented. The BET defines a time history of the state, attitude, and atmospheric relative parameters throughout the Shuttle entry from an altitude of approximately 183 km to rollout. The inertial parameters were estimated utilizing a weighted least squares batch filter algorithm. Spacecraft angular rate and acceleration data derived from the Inertial Measurement Unit were utilized to predict the state and attitude which was constrained in a weighted least squares process to fit external tracking data consisting of ground based S-band and C-band data. Refined spacecraft altitude and velocity during and post rollout were obtained by processing artificial altimeter and Doppler data. The BET generation process is discussed. Software and data interface discussions are included. The variables and coordinate systems utilized are defined. STS-1 mission peculiar inputs are summarized. A listing of the contents of the actual BET is provided.

Findlay, J. T.↗

Analysis of Mars Pathfinder Entry Data, Aerothermal Heating, and Heat Shield Material Response

The Mars Pathfinder heatshield contained several thermocouples and resistance thermometers. A description of the experiment, the entry data, and analysis of the entry environment and material response is presented. In particular, the analysis addresses uncertainties of the data and the fluid dynamics and material response models. The calculations use the latest trajectory and atmosphere reconstructions for the Pathfinder entry. A modified version of the GIANTS code is used for CFD (computational fluid dynamics) analyses, and FIAT is used for material response. The material response and flowfield are coupled appropriately. Three different material response models are considered. The analysis of Pathfinder entry data for validation of aerothermal heating and material response models is complicated by model uncertainties and unanticipated data-acquisition and processing problems. We will discuss these issues as well as ramifications of the data and analysis for future Mars missions.

Milos, Frank↗

An investigation of the effects of mass loss, shape change and real gas aerodynamics on a Jovian atmospheric reconstruction experiment

A survey of the effects of mass loss, shape change and real-gas aerodynamics on a Jovian atmospheric reconstruction experiment is carried out. Techniques used to reconstruct atmospheric profiles from entry probe measurements are discussed and some of the parameters which affect their accuracy are identified. Trajectory analyses and real-gas, radiatively-coupled flow field analyses (which include the effects of mass loss and shape change) are carried out for several candidate probe configurations. From these analyses, uncertainties in the atmospheric reconstruction procedure are estimated. Finally, the prospects for reducing these uncertainties by optimizing probe configuration and by instrumentation of the probe heat shield to measure actual shape change are considered.

Walberg, G. D.↗

IRVE-II Post-Flight Trajectory Reconstruction

NASA s Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE) II successfully demonstrated an inflatable aerodynamic decelerator after being launched aboard a sounding rocket from Wallops Flight Facility (WFF). Preliminary day of flight data compared well with pre-flight Monte Carlo analysis, and a more complete trajectory reconstruction performed with an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach followed. The reconstructed trajectory and comparisons to an attitude solution provided by NASA Sounding Rocket Operations Contract (NSROC) personnel at WFF are presented. Additional comparisons are made between the reconstructed trajectory and pre and post-flight Monte Carlo trajectory predictions. Alternative observations of the trajectory are summarized which leverage flight accelerometer measurements, the pre-flight aerodynamic database, and on-board flight video. Finally, analysis of the payload separation and aeroshell deployment events are presented. The flight trajectory is reconstructed to fidelity sufficient to assess overall project objectives related to flight dynamics and overall, IRVE-II flight dynamics are in line with expectations

O'Keefe, Stephen A.↗

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.

Hannah Alpert↗

Atmospheric Models for Aerocapture

There are eight destinations in the solar System with sufficient atmosphere for aerocapture to be a viable aeroassist option - Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and its moon Titan, Uranus, and Neptune. Engineering-level atmospheric models for four of these targets (Earth, Mars, Titan, and Neptune) have been developed for NASA to support systems analysis studies of potential future aerocapture missions. Development of a similar atmospheric model for Venus has recently commenced. An important capability of all of these models is their ability to simulate quasi-random density perturbations for Monte Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithm, and for thermal systems design. Similarities and differences among these atmospheric models are presented, with emphasis on the recently developed Neptune model and on planned characteristics of the Venus model. Example applications for aerocapture are also presented and illustrated. Recent updates to the Titan atmospheric model are discussed, in anticipation of applications for trajectory and atmospheric reconstruct of Huygens Probe entry at Titan.

Justus, C. G.↗

Atmospheric Models for Aerocapture

There are eight destinations in the Solar System with sufficient atmosphere for aerocapture to be a viable aeroassist option - Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn and its moon Titan, Uranus, and Neptune. Engineering-level atmospheric models for four of these targets (Earth, Mars, Titan, and Neptune) have been developed for NASA to support systems analysis studies of potential future aerocapture missions. Development of a similar atmospheric model for Venus has recently commenced. An important capability of all of these models is their ability to simulate quasi-random density perturbations for Monte Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, and for thermal systems design. Similarities and differences among these atmospheric models are presented, with emphasis on the recently developed Neptune model and on planned characteristics of the Venus model. Example applications for aerocapture are also presented and illustrated. Recent updates to the Titan atmospheric model, in anticipation of applications for trajectory and atmospheric reconstruct of Huygens Robe entry at Titan, are discussed. Recent updates to the Mars atmospheric model, in support of ongoing Mars aerocapture systems analysis studies, are also presented.

Justus, C. G.↗

Atmospheric Models for Aeroentry and Aeroassist

Eight destinations in the Solar System have sufficient atmosphere for aeroentry, aeroassist, or aerobraking/aerocapture: Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, plus Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for Earth, Mars, Titan, and Neptune have been developed for use in NASA s systems analysis studies of aerocapture applications. Development has begun on a similar atmospheric model for Venus. An important capability of these models is simulation of quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, and for thermal systems design. Characteristics of these atmospheric models are compared, and example applications for aerocapture are presented. Recent Titan atmospheric model updates are discussed, in anticipation of applications for trajectory and atmospheric reconstruct of Huygens Probe entry at Titan. Recent and planned updates to the Mars atmospheric model, in support of future Mars aerocapture systems analysis studies, are also presented.

Justus, C. G.↗

Atmospheric Models for Aeroentry and Aeroassist

Eight destinations in the Solar System have sufficient atmosphere for aeroentry, aeroassist, or aerobraking/aerocapture: Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, plus Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for Earth, Mars, Titan, and Neptune have been developed for use in NASA's systems analysis studies of aerocapture applications. Development has begun on a similar atmospheric model for Venus. An important capability of these models is simulation of quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, and for thermal systems design. Characteristics of these atmospheric models are compared, and example applications for aerocapture are presented. Recent Titan atmospheric model updates are discussed, in anticipation of applications for trajectory and atmospheric reconstruct of Huygens Probe entry at Titan. Recent and planned updates to the Mars atmospheric model, in support of future Mars aerocapture systems analysis studies, are also presented.

Justus, C. G.↗