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DOE OSTI2021

Multi-fidelity thermal modeling of laser powder bed additive manufacturing

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Additive manufacturing (AM) has attracted interest as an agile method of building production metal parts to reduce design-build-test cycle times for systems. However, predicting part performance is difficult due to inherent process variabilities. This makes qualification challenging. Computational process models have attempted to address some of these challenges, including mesoscale, full physics models and reduced fidelity conduction models. The goal of this work is credible multi-fidelity modeling of the LPBF process by investigating methods for estimating the error between models of two different fidelities. Two methods of error estimation are investigated, adjoint-based error estimation and Bayesian calibration. Adjoint-based error estimation is found to effectively bounding the error between the two models, but with very conservative bounds, making predictions highly uncertain. Bayesian parameter calibration applied to conduction model heat source parameters is found to effectively bound the observed error between the models for melt pool morphology quantities of interest. However, the calibrations do not effectively bound the error in heat distribution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

An energy-stable time-integrator for phase-field models

Here, we introduce a provably energy-stable time-integration method for general classes of phase-field models with polynomial potentials. We demonstrate how Taylor series expansions of the nonlinear terms present in the partial differential equations of these models can lead to expressions that guarantee energy-stability implicitly, which are second-order accurate in time. The spatial discretization relies on a mixed finite element formulation and isogeometric analysis. We also propose an adaptive time-stepping discretization that relies on a first-order backward approximation to give an error-estimator. This error estimator is accurate, robust, and does not require the computation of extra solutions to estimate the error. This methodology can be applied to any second-order accurate time-integration scheme. We present numerical examples in two and three spatial dimensions, which confirm the stability and robustness of the method. The implementation of the numerical schemes is done in PetIGA, a high-performance isogeometric analysis framework.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2019

Towards Efficient Convolutional Neural Networks Through Low-Error Filter Saliency Estimation

Filter saliency based channel pruning is a state-of-the-art method for deep convolutional neural network compression and acceleration. This channel pruning method ranks the importance of individual filter by estimating its impact of each filter’s removal on the training loss, and then remove the least important filters and fine-tune the remnant network. In this work, we propose a systematic channel pruning method that significantly reduces the estimation error of filter saliency. Different from existing approaches, our method largely reduces the magnitude of parameters in a network by introducing alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) into the pre-training procedure. Therefore, the estimation of filter saliency based on Taylor expansion is significantly improved. Extensive experiments with various benchmark network architectures and datasets demonstrate that the proposed method has a much improved unimportant filter selection capability and outperform state-of-the-art channel pruning method.

Wang, Zi↗

DOE OSTI2017

Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators: Generating short-term probabilistic wind power scenarios via nonparametric forecast error density estimators

Forecasts of available wind power are critical in key electric power systems operations planning problems, including economic dispatch and unit commitment. Such forecasts are necessarily uncertain, limiting the reliability and cost effectiveness of operations planning models based on a single deterministic or “point” forecast. A common approach to address this limitation involves the use of a number of probabilistic scenarios, each specifying a possible trajectory of wind power production, with associated probability. We present and analyze a novel method for generating probabilistic wind power scenarios, leveraging available historical information in the form of forecasted and corresponding observed wind power time series. We estimate non-parametric forecast error densities, specifically using epi-spline basis functions, allowing us to capture the skewed and non-parametric nature of error densities observed in real-world data. We then describe a method to generate probabilistic scenarios from these basis functions that allows users to control for the degree to which extreme errors are captured.We compare the performance of our approach to the current state-of-the-art considering publicly available data associated with the Bonneville Power Administration, analyzing aggregate production of a number of wind farms over a large geographic region. Finally, we discuss the advantages of our approach in the context of specific power systems operations planning problems: stochastic unit commitment and economic dispatch. Here, our methodology is embodied in the joint Sandia – University of California Davis Prescient software package for assessing and analyzing stochastic operations strategies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Adaptive mesh refinement for steady flows in Nek5000

Adaptive mesh refinement is performed in the framework of the spectral element method augmented by approaches to error estimation and control. The h-refinement technique is used for adapting the mesh, where selected grid elements are split by a quadtree (2D) or octree (3D) structure. Continuity between parent-child elements is enforced by high-order interpolation of the solution across the common faces. Parallel mesh partitioning and grid management respectively, are taken care of by the external libraries ParMETIS and p4est. Two methods are considered for estimating and controlling the error of the solution. The first error estimate is local and based on the spectral properties of the solution on each element. This method gives a local measure of the L-2-norm of the solution over the entire computational domain. The second error estimate uses the dual-weighted residuals method - it is based on and takes into account both the local properties of the solution and the global dependence of the error in the solution via an adjoint problem. The objective of this second approach is to optimize the computation of a given functional of physical interest. The simulations are performed by using the code Nek5000 and three steady-state test cases are studied: a two-dimensional lid-driven cavity at Re = 7, 500, a two-dimensional flow past a cylinder at Re = 40, and a three-dimensional lid-driven cavity at Re = 2,000 with a moving lid tilted by an angle of 30 degrees. Finally, the efficiency of both error estimators is compared in terms of refinement patterns and accuracy on the functional of interest. In the case of the adjoint error estimators, the trend on the error of the functional is shown to be correctly represented up to a multiplicative constant.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

SAD phasing of XFEL data depends critically on the error model

A nonlinear least-squares method for refining a parametric expression describing the estimated errors of reflection intensities in serial crystallographic (SX) data is presented. This approach, which is similar to that used in the rotation method of crystallographic data collection at synchrotrons, propagates error estimates from photon-counting statistics to the merged data. Here, it is demonstrated that the application of this approach to SX data provides better SAD phasing ability, enabling the autobuilding of a protein structure that had previously failed to be built. Estimating the error in the merged reflection intensities requires the understanding and propagation of all of the sources of error arising from the measurements. One type of error, which is well understood, is the counting error introduced when the detector counts X-ray photons. Thus, if other types of random errors (such as readout noise) as well as uncertainties in systematic corrections (such as from X-ray attenuation) are completely understood, they can be propagated along with the counting error, as appropriate. In practice, most software packages propagate as much error as they know how to model and then include error-adjustment terms that scale the error estimates until they explain the variance among the measurements. If this is performed carefully, then during SAD phasing likelihood-based approaches can make optimal use of these error estimates, increasing the chance of a successful structure solution. In serial crystallography, SAD phasing has remained challenging, with the few examples of de novo protein structure solution each requiring many thousands of diffraction patterns. Here, the effects of different methods of treating the error estimates are estimated and it is shown that using a parametric approach that includes terms proportional to the known experimental uncertainty, the reflection intensity and the squared reflection intensity to improve the error estimates can allow SAD phasing even from weak zinc anomalous signal.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methods and devices for preventing computationally explosive calculations in a computer for model parameters distributed on a hierarchy of geometric simplices

A computer-implemented method of preventing computationally explosive calculations. The method includes obtaining, by a processor of the computer, measured data of one of a physical process or a physical object; performing hierarchical numerical modeling of a physical process inclusive of an Earth model containing at least one of (a) infrastructure in the ground and (b) a formation feature in the ground, wherein predicted data is generated; comparing the measured data to the predicted data to calculate an estimated error; analyzing the estimated error via an inversion process to update the at least one of the Earth model and infrastructure model so as to reduce the estimated error and to determine a final composite Earth model of at least one of the infrastructure and the feature; and using the final composite Earth model to characterize at least one of the process and the physical object.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2022

Goal-oriented a-posteriori estimation of model error as an aid to parameter estimation

In this work, a Bayesian model calibration framework is presented that utilizes goal-oriented a-posterior error estimates in quantities of interest (QoIs) for classes of high-fidelity models characterized by PDEs. It is shown that for a large class of computational models, it is possible to develop a computationally inexpensive procedure for calibrating parameters of high-fidelity models of physical events when the parameters of low-fidelity (surrogate) models are known with acceptable accuracy. The main ingredients in the proposed model calibration scheme are goal-oriented a-posteriori estimates of error in QoIs computed using a so-called lower fidelity model compared to those of an uncalibrated higher fidelity model. The estimates of error in QoIs are used to define likelihood functions in Bayesian inversion analysis. A standard Bayesian approach is employed to compute the posterior distribution of model parameters of high-fidelity models. As applications, parameters in a quasi-linear second-order elliptic boundary-value problem (BVP) are calibrated using a second-order linear elliptic BVP. In a second application, parameters of a tumor growth model involving nonlinear time-dependent PDEs are calibrated using a lower fidelity linear tumor growth model with known parameter values.

A-posterior estimates↗

DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of Errors in Stress Distributions Computed in Finite Element Simulations of Polycrystals

The accuracy of the stresses predicted from crystal plasticity-based finite element formulation depends on estimation and control of the errors associated with the discretization. In the current work, the errors in the stress distribution are estimated in virtual polycrystalline samples of α-phase titanium (hexagonal close-packed phase of Ti–6Al– 4 V). To estimate the error, the stress field, which does not possess inter-element continuity, is smoothed over a grain using an L 2 projection, thereby providing continuous stress distributions with inter-element continuity. The differences between the continuous (smooth) and discontinuous (raw) stress fields are calculated at individual Gauss quadrature points and used to estimate errors for corresponding elements and grains. Error estimations are performed for a Voronoi-tessellated microstructure, an equiaxed microstructure, and two microstructures with varying grain sizes for tensile loading extending into the fully plastic regime (≈ 5% extension). Magnitudes of the errors are found to depend on microstructural characteristics, particularly the shape and size of grains. Samples having variations in grain size or having less spherical grains exhibited higher errors than samples with uniformly sized, equiaxed grains, with the size variations having a more pronounced effect. In conclusion, errors correlate with proximity to grain boundaries at small (elastic) strains and with deformation-induced features (deformation bands) at large strains.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Comparison of Circular and Spherical Error Probable Estimators

This report compares the performance of three Circular Error Probable (CEP) estimators: the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator, a new, non-iterative, radial-integration estimator, and a median estimator. It also compares the performance of two Spherical Error Probable (SEP) estimators. The performance of each estimator is assessed in terms of bias, uncertainty, robustness, and computational complexity. Robustness is evaluated with respect to outliers, variations in the underlying statistical distribution characterizing munition impact positions, and impact-position measurement errors. The performance assessments indicate the radial-integration and Grubbs-Patnaik estimators perform nearly identically providing the statistical distribution of impact-position coordinates is jointly normal with zero means. In that case, both estimators outperform the median estimator by about 2% relative to the true CEP in terms of estimator uncertainty. The bias performance of the radial-integration and median estimators is close to zero for jointly normal impacts, however, the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator can be significantly biased for jointly normal impacts with non-zero means. When the statistical distribution characterizing impact positions is known, but not jointly normal, the radial-integration estimator is superior. In this case, the median estimator also outperforms the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator but is not quite as good as the radial-integration estimator. If the statistical distribution characterizing impacts is unknown and not jointly normal, or if distribution parameters are difficult or impractical to estimate, or if test data is corrupted with outliers, then the median estimator dramatically outperforms the other estimators, especially in terms of estimation bias. Unexpectedly, measurement noise did not significantly degrade the performance of any of the estimators, except for cases with signal to noise ratios less than five. Although the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator has remained the gold standard for CEP estimation for over half a century, the performance assessments indicate the new, non-iterative, radial-integration estimator and the median estimator offer significant advantages and, in most practical real-world conditions, are superior estimators. These estimators are also useful for SEP estimation whereas the Grubbs-Patnaik estimator does not extend to three dimensions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Measurement Error Variance Estimation in Gamma-Spectroscopy Data using FRAM

The FRAM gamma-ray isotopic analysis code has recently been applied to four Pu data sets and four U data sets, each with relatively well-characterized standard items, in order to estimate the variances of random errors and of item-specific systematic errors. Assay results are available for Pu238, Pu239, Pu240, Pu241, Pu242 (operator entered, not independently measured), Am241, Specific Power, and Pu240eff. For the four U data sets, results are available for the measurands U234, U235, U236 (operator entered, not independently measured), and U238. For example, in Pu data set 1, there are 33 standard reference Pu items, which have well-known nominal/true values (except for a few items). FRAM was used to make approximately 15 repeat measurements for each of the 33 items, so empirical standard deviations can be calculated. In addition, FRAM internally estimates its random error variance using propagation of variance. This paper applies analysis of variance (ANOVA) to separately estimate the repeatability standard deviation and the standard deviation of the item-specific biases δ s in each of the 8 data sets.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Mixed Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Linear Elasticity with Strongly Imposed Symmetry

In this paper, we study a mixed discontinuous Galerkin (MDG) method to solve linear elasticity problem with arbitrary order discontinuous finite element spaces in d -dimension ( $d=2,3$ ). This method uses polynomials of degree $k+1$ for the stress and of degree k for the displacement ( $k\ge 0$ ). The mixed DG scheme is proved to be well-posed under proper norms. Specifically, we prove that, for any $k \ge 0$ , the $H(\mathrm{div})$ -like error estimate for the stress and $L^2$ error estimate for the displacement are optimal. We further establish the optimal $L^2$ error estimate for the stress provided that the ${\mathcal {P}}_{k+2}-{\mathcal {P}}_{k+1}^{-1}$ Stokes pair is stable and $k \ge d$ . Finally, we also provide numerical results of MDG showing that the orders of convergence are actually sharp.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Modeling mechanical behavior of an additively manufactured metal structure with local texture variations: a study on model form error

Here, the repetitive rapid solidification that occurs in metal additive manufacturing (AM) processes creates microstructures distinctly different from wrought materials. Local variability in AM microstructures (either by design or unintentional) raises questions as to how AM structures should be modeled at the part-scale to minimize modeling error. The key goal of this work is to demonstrate a posteriori error estimation applied to an AM part. It is assumed that the actual microstructure is unknown and an approximate, spatially uniform material model is used. Error bounds are calculated for many reference models based on AM microstructures with elongated grain morphology and localized or global fiber textures during a post-processing step. The current findings promote confidence that a posteriori model form error estimation could be used effectively in mechanical performance simulations of AM parts to quickly obtain quantitative error metrics between an approximate model result and many microstructure-based reference models. The a posteriori error estimation introduces significant time savings compared to computing the full reference model solutions. Tight bounds on model form error are obtained when texture variations in the reference models occur on large length scales. For materials with property variation at small length scales, multi-scale error estimation techniques are needed to properly account for the many interfaces present between areas with different properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

On the convergence and convergence order of finite volume gradient schemes for oblique derivative boundary value problems

This work is an improvement of the previous note (Bradji in: Fuhrmann et al., Finite volumes for complex applications VII–methods, theoretical aspects. Proceedings of the FVCA 7, Berlin, 2014) which dealt with the convergence analysis of a finite volume scheme for the Poisson’s equation with a linear oblique derivative boundary condition. The formulation of the finite volume scheme given in Bradji (in: Fuhrmann et al., Finite volumes for complex applications VII–methods, theoretical aspects. Proceedings of the FVCA 7, Berlin, 2014) involves the discrete gradient introduced recently in Eymard et al. (IMA J Numer Anal 30(4):1009–1043, 2010). In this paper, we consider the convergence analysis of finite volume schemes involving the discrete gradient of Eymard et al. (IMA J Numer Anal 30(4):1009–1043, 2010) for elliptic and parabolic equations with linear oblique derivative boundary conditions. Linear oblique derivative boundary conditions arise for instance in the study of the motion of water in a canal, cf. Lesnic (Commun Numer Methods Eng 23(12):1071–1080, 2007). We derive error estimates in several norms which allow us to get error estimates for the approximations of the exact solutions and its first derivatives. In particular, we provide an error estimate between the gradient of the exact solutions and the discrete gradient of the approximate solutions. Convergence of the family of finite volume approximate solutions towards the exact solution under weak regularity assumption is also investigated. In the case of parabolic equations with oblique derivative boundary conditions, we develop a new discrete a priori estimate result. The proof of this result is based on the use of a discrete mean Poincaré–Wirtinger inequality. Thanks to the stated a priori estimate and to a comparison with an appropriately chosen auxiliary finite volume scheme, we derive the convergence results. This work can be viewed as a continuation of the previous work (Bradji and Gallouët in Int J Finite Vol 3(2):1–35, 2006) where a convergence analysis for a finite volume scheme, based on the admissible mesh of Eymard et al. (In: Ciarlet and Lions, Handbook of numerical analysis, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 2000), for the Poisson’s equation with a linear oblique derivative boundary conditions is given. The obtained convergence results do not require any relation between the mesh sizes of the spatial and time discretizations. Some numerical tests are presented for both elliptic and parabolic equations. In particular, we present three methods to compute the discrete solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of the effect of noise parameters of a 3D lidar on the error in estimating relief signatures of distant objects from 2D field intensity distributions of reflected radiation

We consider the influence of noise parameters of a 3D lidar and external background radiation on the error in estimating the relief signatures of distant objects from 2D field intensity distributions of the reflected radiation. A physical and mathematical model is developed to analyse the effect of noise. The dependence of the error in estimating the relief signatures at various signal-to-noise ratios is investigated taking into account the parameters of real multi-element photodetectors (MEPDs). The obtained results indicate the possibility of evaluating relief signatures of distant objects with high accuracy based on standard MEPDs simultaneously for a large number of points on the object’s surface with a signal-to-noise ratio of more than 4. (paper)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variable-fidelity multipoint aerodynamic shape optimization with output-based adapted meshes

This work presents a method to control the discretization error in multipoint aerodynamic shape optimization using output-based adapted meshes. The meshes are adapted via adjoint-based error estimates, taking into account both the objective and constraint output errors. A multi-fidelity optimization framework is then developed by taking advantage of the variable fidelity offered by adaptive meshes. The objective functional and its sensitivity at each design point (operating condition) are first evaluated on the same initial coarse mesh, which is then subsequently adapted for each design point individually as the shape optimization proceeds. The effort to set up the optimization is minimal since the initial mesh can be fairly coarse and easy to generate. As the shape approaches the optimal design, the mesh at each design point becomes finer, in regions necessary for that particular operating condition. The multi-fidelity framework is tightly coupled with the objective error estimation to ensure the optimization accuracy at each fidelity. Computational savings arise from a reduction of the mesh size when the design is far from optimal and avoiding an exhaustive search on low-fidelity meshes. The proposed method is demonstrated on multipoint drag minimization problems of a transonic airfoil with lift and area constraints. Improved accuracy and efficiency are shown compared to traditional fixed-fidelity optimization with a fixed computational mesh.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

On the time growth of the error of the DG method for advective problems

Abstract In this paper we derive a priori $L^{\infty }(L^{2})$ and L2(L2) error estimates for a linear advection–reaction equation with inlet and outlet boundary conditions. The goal is to derive error estimates for the discontinuous Galerkin method that do not blow up exponentially with respect to time, unlike the usual case when Gronwall’s inequality is used. While this is possible in special cases, such as divergence-free advection fields, we take a more general approach using exponential scaling of the exact and discrete solutions. Here we use a special scaling function, which corresponds to time taken along individual pathlines of the flow. For advection fields, where the time that massless particles carried by the flow spend inside the spatial domain is uniformly bounded from above by some $\widehat{T}$, we derive $\mathcal{O}$(hp+1/2) error estimates where the constant factor depends only on $\widehat{T}$, but not on the final time T. This can be interpreted as applying Gronwall’s inequality in the error analysis along individual pathlines (Lagrangian setting), instead of physical time (Eulerian setting).

Mathematics↗