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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating Survival Analysis with Bayesian Statistics to Forecast the Remaining Useful Life of a Centrifugal Pump Conditional to Multiple Fault Types

To improve the viability of nuclear power plants, there is a need to reduce their operational costs. Operational costs account for a significant portion of a plant’s yearly budget, due to their scheduled-based maintenance approach. In order to reduce these costs, proactive methods are required that estimate and forecast the state of a machine in real time to optimize maintenance schedules. In this research, we use Bayesian networks to develop a framework that can forecast the remaining useful life of a centrifugal pump. To do so, we integrate survival analysis with Bayesian statistics to forecast the health of the pump conditional to its current state. We complete our research by successfully using the Bayesian network on a case study. This solution provides an informed probabilistic viewpoint of the pumping system for the purpose of predictive maintenance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation Using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory.SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Error Covariance↗
NASA NTRS2014

Background Error Covariance Estimation using Information from a Single Model Trajectory with Application to Ocean Data Assimilation into the GEOS-5 Coupled Model

An attractive property of ensemble data assimilation methods is that they provide flow dependent background error covariance estimates which can be used to update fields of observed variables as well as fields of unobserved model variables. Two methods to estimate background error covariances are introduced which share the above property with ensemble data assimilation methods but do not involve the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation (SAFE) algorithm estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. The Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series (FAST) method constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. SAFE and FAST are applied to the assimilation of Argo temperature profiles into version 4.1 of the Modular Ocean Model (MOM4.1) coupled to the GEOS-5 atmospheric model and to the CICE sea ice model. The results are validated against unassimilated Argo salinity data. They show that SAFE and FAST are competitive with the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) used by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) to produce its ocean analysis. Because of their reduced cost, SAFE and FAST hold promise for high-resolution data assimilation applications.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near Real Time Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

This presentation provides an overview of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) high-resolution global forecast and reanalysis products for weather, aerosols, and air quality. The NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module assimilates 2-dimensional column-integrated aerosol optical depth (AOD) at one wavelength (550 nm) in order to constrain the model's background AOD in order to have the best historical estimate and forecasts of AOD and particulate matter. Furthermore, the GEOS model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition at unprecedented horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). This composition forecast system (GEOS-CF) combines the operational GEOS weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide detailed analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

K Emma Knowland↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optimal 1D Ly α forest power spectrum estimation – II. KODIAQ, SQUAD, and XQ-100

ABSTRACT We measure the 1D Ly α power spectrum P1D from Keck Observatory Database of Ionized Absorption toward Quasars (KODIAQ), The Spectral Quasar Absorption Database (SQUAD), and XQ-100 quasars using the optimal quadratic estimator. We combine KODIAQ and SQUAD at the spectrum level, but perform a separate XQ-100 estimation to control its large resolution corrections in check. Our final analysis measures P1D at scales k < 0.1 s km−1 between redshifts $z$ = 2.0–4.6 using 538 quasars. This sample provides the largest number of high-resolution, high-S/N observations; and combined with the power of optimal estimator it provides exceptional precision at small scales. These small-scale modes (k ≳ 0.02 s km−1), unavailable in Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument analyses, are sensitive to the thermal state and reionization history of the intergalactic medium, as well as the nature of dark matter. As an example, a simple Fisher forecast analysis estimates that our results can improve small-scale cut-off sensitivity by more than a factor of 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation for Battery Electric Buses Energy Consumption Forecasting

The limited service life of onboard batteries for EVs is a challenge, underscoring the need for real-time battery usage prediction. This paper proposes an adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation (ADE) approach for forecasting the energy consumption of battery electric buses. By dynamically adjusting the sliding window length, the adaptive ADE retains the fixed-length ADE’s key advantage—namely, operating online without reliance on extensive historical datasets—while substantially bolstering forecast accuracy by actively trading estimation bias off estimation variance. Comparative experiments against both the conventional ADE with a fixed length and a representative machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, were conducted, with performance evaluated via root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Cui, Tianyang [The University of Texas at Dallas]↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Air Quality Data Fusion with Sensors, Satellites, and Models

Global forecasting models, satellite remote sensing, and ground-based regulatory and low-cost monitors all have strengths and weaknesses with respect to providing locally relevant information about air quality. This presentation will give a brief overview of these data sources and then discuss a method for combining them via data fusion to support near-real-time air quality estimation and forecasting at sub-city scales. The basic idea behind the approach will be summarized, followed by an update on recent developments towards creating an operational system using Google Earth Engine and on quantifying uncertainties related to data fusion outputs.

Carl Malings↗
DOE OSTI2023

Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecast in Multiple Locations using Deep Transfer Learning

In recent years, solar power system installation imposes several challenges on the operations of local and regional power grids due to the inherent variability of ground-level solar irradiance. This work proposes a novel real-time solar forecast methodology for intra-hour solar irradiance based on deep transfer learning from ground-based sky imager for time horizons ranging from 5-15 min. There are three unique aspects of the proposed methodology: (1) a Deep Learning based algorithm development which is modeled as a classification approach rather than a traditional regression approach; (2) the use of the Transfer Learning technique to show generalization capability, robustness, and portability of baseline model in the newly deployed location where availability of enough data for training is typically scarce, and (3) redefinition of point-based irradiation forecast error estimation technique with a window-based one that is more intuitive and user-friendly. The system is developed using multiple years of irradiance and sky image recording in New Jersey and one-year data from Colorado, USA. The method is validated against ground telemetry from these two locations of diverse geographic and climatic conditions. Results show that the forecasting method proposed in this work is robust and highly accurate (8% MAPE error) for multiple locations deployment.

Deep Learning, Convolution Neural Networks, transf↗
NASA NTRS1981

Applications systems verification and transfer project. Volume 7: Cost/benefit analysis for the ASVT on operational applications of satellite snow-cover observations

The results of the OASSO ASVT's were used to estimate the benefits accruing from the added information available from satellite snowcover area measurement. Estimates of the improvement in runoff prediction due to addition of SATSCAM were made by the Colorado ASVT personnel. The improvement estimate is 6-10%. Data were applied to subregions covering the Western States snow area amended by information from the ASVT and other watershed experts to exclude areas which are not impacted by snowmelt runoff. Benefit models were developed for irrigation and hydroenergy uses. The benefit/cost ratio is 72:1. Since only two major benefit contributors were used and since the forecast improvement estimate does not take into account future satellite capabilities these estimates are considered to be conservative. The large magnitude of the benefit/cost ratio supports the utility and applicability of SATSCAM.

Castruccio, P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

One-Step Ahead Prediction of Thermal Mixing Tee Sensors with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks

High-temperature advanced reactors under development, such as sodium fast reactors (SFR) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCR), are expected to offer lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE) compared to existing light water reactor (LWR’s). In the existing light water reactors (LWR’s), operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses constitute the largest fraction of the total operating cost. Some of the O&M costs are related maintenance of sensors which can fail due to exposure to harsh environment in a reactor. The O&M costs of Advanced Reactor (AR)’s are expected to constitute a significant fraction of the total cost as well, because of high temperature and radiation level in AR are likely to cause material fatigue and premature failure of sensors and components. The O&M costs in AR’s could be reduced through integration of advanced informatics of performance-related sensors into a digital twin designed for reactor monitoring. For example, machine learning (ML) could be employed for real-time validation and correction of performance-related sensors, and reducing the number of performance-related physical sensor units through virtual sensing. As part of the effort, we investigate real-time validation of thermal hydraulic sensors through one-step ahead forecasting of sensor values using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN). The sensors are installed in a flow loop containing a thermal mixing tee, which is a common experimental model to study thermal fatigue in a thermal hydraulic loop. In addition, nonlinear transients generated in a thermal mixing tee constitute a good challenge data set for training and validation of ML algorithms. Sensors in this study include thermocouples, flow meters, and optical fibers for distributed temperature sensing. In one experiment, measurement data sets were obtained for a loop was filled with water, and in another experiment, measurements were performed on a loop filled with liquid metal Galinstan. We have also conducted preliminary investigation of one-step ahead prediction of fiber optics-based distributed temperature sensing with LSTM networks. In predicting fiber-based temperature measurements, we treated each gauge pitch of the fiber as an independent sensor. Accuracy of one-step ahead forecasting was estimated by calculating root mean square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor. RMSE’s for temperature sensors in water loop were, for the most part, lower than for the same sensors in Galinstan loop. The RMSE’s for flow meters were similar for both loops. The RMSE’s for distributed temperature measured with the fiber optic sensor were similar to those of the point sensors. Results of this study demonstrated the capability of LSTM one-step ahead forecasting with RMSE comparable to uncertainty in sensor measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrating Low-Cost Sensor Systems and Networks to Enhance Air Quality Applications

Recent advances in low-cost air quality sensor systems are rapidly increasing the accessibility of air quality information around the world. At the same time, there are many technical challenges to appropriately and effectively using of the information they provide. A key opportunity to increase the applicability and actionability of low-cost sensor data is to use these devices at network scale and combine their information with insights from other air quality data sources such as numerical models and satellite remote sensing. When the limitations of low-cost sensors are understood and acknowledged, and appropriate complementary data are used to overcome these limitations, low cost sensors can support a variety of applications such as improving location-specific air quality forecasting and estimation, quantifying local source impacts, identifying air quality disparities, assessing the benefits of mitigation actions, and promoting community engagement with air quality issues. This presentation will first provide an overview and summarize key findings from a recently released World Meteorological Organization report discussing how networks of low-cost air quality sensor systems can be integrated to effectively support such applications. The presentation will also give a brief overview of an ongoing NASA-funded effort to create accessible tools for integrating multiple sources of air quality information, including global forecasting models, satellite remote sensing data, and in-situ information from both regulatory and low-cost monitors.

Carl Malings↗
DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation‐Free Surrogate Modeling of Geophysical Flows at the Intersection of Machine Learning and Data Assimilation

Abstract There is a growing interest in developing data‐driven reduced‐order models for atmospheric and oceanic flows that are trained on data obtained either from high‐resolution simulations or satellite observations. The data‐driven models are non‐intrusive in nature and offer significant computational savings compared to large‐scale numerical models. These low‐dimensional models can be utilized to reduce the computational burden of generating forecasts and estimating model uncertainty without losing the key information needed for data assimilation (DA) to produce accurate state estimates. This paper aims at exploring an equation‐free surrogate modeling approach at the intersection of machine learning and DA in Earth system modeling. With this objective, we introduce an end‐to‐end non‐intrusive reduced‐order modeling (NIROM) framework equipped with contributions in modal decomposition, time series prediction, optimal sensor placement, and sequential DA. Specifically, we use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to identify the dominant structures of the flow, and a long short‐term memory network to model the dynamics of the POD modes. The NIROM is integrated within the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) to incorporate sparse and noisy observations at optimal sensor locations obtained through QR pivoting. The feasibility and the benefit of the proposed framework are demonstrated for the NOAA Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) V2 data set. Our results indicate that the NIROM is stable for long‐term forecasting and can model dynamics of SST with a reasonable level of accuracy. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy of the NIROM gets improved by almost one order of magnitude by the DEnKF algorithm.

Pawar, Suraj↗
DOE OSTI2022

COMAP Early Science. V. Constraints and Forecasts at z ~ 3

We present the current state of models for the z ~ 3 carbon monoxide (CO) line intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection and previous CO (1–0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers k = 0.051–0.62 Mpc –1 represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO (1–0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude A clust ≲ 70 μK 2 greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of 420 μK 2 reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at k ~ 1 Mpc –1 . The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity–bias product, ${\left\langle {Tb}\right\rangle }_{2}$ ≲ 50 μK 2 , and the cosmic molecular gas density, ρ H2 < 2.5 × 10 8 M ⊙ Mpc –3 (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the 5 yr Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise ratio of 9–17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO–galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star formation and galaxy evolution history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Near Real Time Tools for ISS Plasma Science and Engineering Applications

The International Space Station (ISS) program utilizes a plasma environment forecast for estimating electrical charging hazards for crews during extravehicular activity (EVA). The process uses ionospheric electron density (Ne) and temperature (Te) measurements from the ISS Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) instrument suite with the assumption that the plasma conditions will remain constant for one to fourteen days with a low probability for a space weather event which would significantly change the environment before an EVA. FPMU data is typically not available during EVA's, therefore, the most recent FPMU data available for characterizing the state of the ionosphere during EVA is typically a day or two before the start of an EVA or after the EVA has been completed. Three near real time space weather tools under development for ISS applications are described here including: (a) Ne from ground based ionosonde measurements of foF2 (b) Ne from near real time satellite radio occultation measurements of electron density profiles (c) Ne, Te from a physics based ionosphere model These applications are used to characterize the ISS space plasma environment during EVA periods when FPMU data is not available, monitor for large changes in ionosphere density that could render the ionosphere forecast and plasma hazard assessment invalid, and validate the "persistence of conditions" forecast assumption. In addition, the tools are useful for providing space environment input to science payloads on ISS and anomaly investigations during periods the FPMU is not operating.

Minow, Joseph I.↗