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Data for publication: "A fresh take: Seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh hydrology and vegetation dynamics"

This data repository contains data associated with the manuscript "A fresh take: Seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh hydrology and vegetation dynamics". This study was conducted at the Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve in Watsonville, California from October 2019 - June 2022. We sought to understand the role of shallow freshwater inputs from adjacent uplands on salt marsh hydrologic behavior and vegetation productivity. This dataset contains CSV files of the following: daily salt marsh subsurface water level and pore water conductivity, monthly vegetation survey measurements, soil core data. Estuary surface water level, conductivity, and local precipitation were downloaded from the National Estuarine Research Reserve System (Centralized Data Management Office) at https://cdmo.baruch.sc.edu/.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Level 1 Sensor Data v1-2

This is the version 1-2 Level 1 (L1) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments.L1 data are close to raw, but are units-transformed and have out-of-instrument-bounds and out-of-service flags added. Duplicates and missing data are removed but otherwise these data are not filtered, and have not been subject to any additional algorithmic or human QA/QC. Any scientific analyses of L1 data should be performed with care. **This dataset will be updated quarterly with new data for the duration of the project**This dataset includes:- An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc.- Site- and year-specific folders, each holding up to 12 CSV (comma separated value) data files for each site and plot in that year.- Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site.- Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are normally logged every 15 minutes.Please see v1-2 TEMPEST L1 Sensor Package Quick Start.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning.The TEMPEST flood events occurred on the following dates. They lasted for ~10 hours each day and delivered ~80,000 gallons to each plot; many data streams are available at 1 or 5 minute frequency during these periods.* Tests: Aug 25 (fresh plot) and Sep 9 (salt plot), 2021* TEMPEST 1: June 22, 2022* TEMPEST 2: June 6-7, 2023* TEMPEST 3: June 11-13, 2024

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Tree Inventory

This is the tree inventory (diameter, species, and live/dead status) data from the Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment is part of the COMPASS-FME (Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales: Field Measurements and Experiments; see https://compass.pnnl.gov/FME/COMPASSFME) project. It addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in eastern Maryland, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments.This dataset includes:- An overall dataset README file.- The tree inventory data in both "wide" and "long" forms. These contain the same information but are structured differently, with the former more useful for human viewers and the latter more amenable for programmatic analyses.- A key to the species/genus codes used, which follow the U.S. Department of Agriculture's PLANTS schema (https://plants.usda.gov/).- A copy of the R code used to generate the wide- and long-form data files.All files are comma-separated value (CSV) and no special software is required to read them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Level 1 Sensor Data v2-1

This is the version 2-1 Level 1 (L1) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. L1 data are close to raw, but are units-transformed and have out-of-instrument-bounds, out-of-service, and outlier flags added. Duplicates and missing data are removed but otherwise these data are not filtered, and have not been subject to any additional algorithmic or human QA/QC. Any scientific analyses of L1 data should be performed with care. **This dataset will be updated quarterly with new data for the duration of the project** This dataset includes: - An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc. - Site- and year-specific folders, each holding variable-specific CSV (comma separated value) data files for each site and plot in that year. - Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site. - Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are normally logged every 15 minutes. Please see v2-1 TEMPEST L1 Sensor Package Quick Start.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning. The TEMPEST flood events occurred on the following dates. They lasted for ~10 hours each day and delivered ~80,000 gallons to each plot; many data streams are available at 1 or 5 minute frequency during these periods. * Tests: Aug 25 (fresh plot) and Sep 9 (salt plot), 2021 * TEMPEST 1: June 22, 2022 * TEMPEST 2: June 6-7, 2023 * TEMPEST 3: June 11-13, 2024 This dataset was updated 2026-03-12: (i) data now go through 2025-12-31 (previous end was 2025-06-30) and (ii) dataset and file names updated to “…v2-1” (previously was “v2-0”).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil microbial ecology and microbiome-metabolite linkages improve understanding of ecosystem states along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces

These data are from Bandopadhyay et al., "Soil microbial ecology and microbiome-metabolite linkages improve understanding of ecosystem states along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces". This study aims to understand the soil microbial ecology along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces of a freshwater and estuarine region and how it relates to organic matter. We analyzed soil microbial (16S rRNA gene) and organic matter (Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, FTICR-MS) composition from upland (forested), transition (stressed forest), and wetland positions at three sites in each of the Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (estuarine) regions. This dataset includes 16S rRNA gene amplicon data (only processed file types included here) and organic matter composition from FTICR-MS data (raw and processed files included here) from upland (forested), transition (stressed forest), and wetland positions at three sites in each of the Lake Erie and Chesapeake Bay regions. These sites are part of the COMPASS-FME project (https://compass.pnnl.gov/FME/COMPASSFME). File formats and software needed to access files: 16S rRNA gene amplicon data: These files follow the format reported here https://ess-dive.gitbook.io/amplicon-sequencing-reporting-format#updates-in-v1.0.1. As per this format, there are four file types reported: 1. Taxon tables (also called sequence-by-sample or OTU (operational taxonomic unit)/ESV (exact sequence variant) tables) : available in a .txt file format and accessible using TextEdit or MS Excel. 2. Representative sequences (also called consensus sequences) : available in a .fasta format and accessible using TextEdit. 3. Sequencing metadata : available in a MS Excel workbook file format and CSV file format 4. Bioinformatic metadata : available in a MS Excel workbook file format and CSV file format FTICR-MS data: 1. Raw data converted to a processed file with intensities of the peaks in the given samples : available in a MS Excel CSV file format 2. Processed file used in analyses and visualizations (appended as icr_long_) : available in a MS Excel CSV file format 3. Metadata file for ICR features (appended as icr_meta) : available in a MS Excel CSV file format

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data for Kim et al., "Variations in the optical and molecular composition of dissolved organic matter exported from coastal wetlands"

Knowledge about sources and composition of marsh-derived dissolved organic matter (DOM) is critical for understanding the role of marshes in coastal biogeochemical cycling and the fate of marsh-derived DOM in the ocean. To investigate tidal variability in composition of marsh-derived DOM, Kim et al. examined the optical and molecular characteristics of hourly surface water samples at three tidal creeks in the Chesapeake Bay. Groundwater samples along the terrestrial landscape gradient as well as estuarine water from the adjacent estuary at each site were also collected to help resolve sources of surface water DOM. Samples were collected in summer 2024 at three sites – SWH: Sweet Hall Marsh, GCW: Kirkpatrick Marsh, and GWI: Goodwin Islands – which are part of synoptic sites in the Chesapeake Bay region of the COMPASS-FME (Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales - Field, Measurements, and Experiments) project. Surface water samples were collected hourly over a 48-hour period at each site. Groundwater and estuarine water samples were collected once. This dataset includes- Surface water depth and salinity- Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) concentrations- Optical indices and relative composition of parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) components- High resolution mass spectrometry data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Level 2 Sensor Data v2-1

This is the version v2-1 Level 2 (L2) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. Level 2 (L2) data consist of sensor observations from the COMPASS-FME synoptic sites, TEMPEST, and DELUGE. Compared to the L1 data, these are more consistent (always 15-minute timestamps for the entire year); better QA/QC’d (out of bounds, out of service, and extreme outlier values are removed); and more complete, with a gap-filled time series available alongside the main observations, and additional derived (calculated) variables. L2 data are intended to be rapidly and easily usable in analyses and simulations. However, algorithmic outlier identification always carries the risk of removing valid data, and Level 1 data may be more suitable for analyses that focus on variability or extreme events. This dataset includes: - An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc. - Site- and year-specific folders, each holding variable-specific Parquet (a high performance, space efficient format; see https://parquet.apache.org) data files for each site and plot in that year. - Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site. - Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are reported every 15 minutes. Please see v2-1 TEMPEST L2 Sensor Package Quick Start.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning. Data files are in Apache Parquet, a high performance, space efficient format for tabular data. These files can be read using R's `arrow` package (https://arrow.apache.org/docs/r/), with similar tools available in other languages. The TEMPEST flood events occurred on the following dates. They lasted for ~10 hours each day and delivered ~80,000 gallons to each plot; many data streams are available at 1 or 5 minute frequency during these periods. * Tests: Aug 25 (fresh plot) and Sep 9 (salt plot), 2021 * TEMPEST 1: June 22, 2022 * TEMPEST 2: June 6-7, 2023 * TEMPEST 3: June 11-13, 2024

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Srr Suisun marsh - Rush Ranch

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Srr Suisun marsh - Rush Ranch. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Srr Suisun marsh - Rush Ranch produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This site is a 4.57 km2 brackish tidal marsh located in the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (SFBNERR, http://www.nerrs.noaa.gov/reserves/san-francisco-bay.html) in Suisun Bay, CA, USA. Suisun Bay is the most extensive contiguous brackish marsh complex in California. This site is classified as a high marsh, which according to the National Wetland Inventory, is representative of over 58% of estuarine wetlands.

Bergamaschi, Brian↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-StJ St Jones Reserve

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-StJ St Jones Reserve. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-StJ St Jones Reserve produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This tower is located in St Jones, near Dover Delaware. This area is part of the National Estuarine Research Reserve. It was established in 1993, and estuarine ecosystems from the Mid-Atlantic region are represented here. This region has been influenced by agricultural fields along the watershed. The EC tower is located in a tidal marsh near the Dover headquarters, there is a board walk that goes along the marsh. Restoring natural vegetation is on the long term management plan.

Vargas, Rodrigo↗

Response Of Salt Intrusion In A Tidal Estuary To Regional Climatic Forcing (FVCOM Output for the baseline scenario)

Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels. These findings have been summarized into a journal manuscript. The data included in this information release request are FVCOM model output associated with the numerical simulations described in the journal manuscript.

Liu, Jinliang↗

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the microplastic distribution along the Delaware River Estuary: Accumulation patterns and hydrodynamic influences

Microplastic pollution is an escalating environmental concern, particularly in densely populated estuary regions, where it poses significant threats to aquatic life and human health. The dispersion patterns of microplastic particles along estuaries are influenced and complicated by multiple environmental factors such as river flow, tidal mixing, salt intrusion, and estuarine circulation. This study examines the accumulation and dispersion patterns by modeling three typical classes of microplastics in the Delaware River Estuary: synthetic fibers, sinking plastic films, and rising plastic pellets. Our findings reveal specific areas with high microplastic accumulation for each type. Notably, the upper estuary regions exhibit significant retention of rising microplastics, associated with a region with reduced along-thalweg velocities downstream of Trenton, NJ and upstream of Philadelphia, PA. Conversely, synthetic fibers and sinking plastic films accumulate in the flow convergence zone near the bottom salinity front, typically downstream of Philadelphia. All of the microplastic accumulation hot spot locations are controlled by the balance of river discharge and salinity intrusions. During the dry season, microplastic accumulation hot spots shift upstream in the estuary, whereas in the wet season, the strong river discharge pushes them downstream. Furthermore, on the other hand, tidal mixing, settling, and resuspension processes strongly impact the spreading of microplastics along the river.

Delaware River Estuary↗

Changes in inundation drive carbon dioxide and methane fluxes in a temperate wetland

Wetlands cycle carbon by being net sinks for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and net sources of methane (CH 4 ). Daily and seasonal temporal patterns, dissolved oxygen (DO) availability, inundation status (flooded or dry/partially flooded), water depth, and vegetation can affect the magnitude of carbon uptake or emissions, but the extent and interactive effects of these variables on carbon gas fluxes are poorly understood. We characterized the linkages between carbon fluxes and these environmental and temporal drivers at the Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve (OWC), OH. We measured diurnal gas flux patterns in an upstream side channel (called the cove) using chamber measurements at six sites (three vegetated and three non-vegetated). We sampled hourly from 7 AM to 7 PM and monthly from July to October 2022. DO concentrations and water levels were measured monthly. Water inundation status had the most influential effect on carbon fluxes with flooded conditions supporting higher CH 4 fluxes (0.39 μmol CH 4 m –2 s –1 ; –1.23 μmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ) and drier conditions supporting higher CO 2 fluxes (0.03 μmol CH 4 m –2 s –1 ; 0.86 μmol CO 2 m –2 s –1 ). When flooded, the wetland was a net CO 2 sink; however, it became a source for both CH 4 and CO 2 when water levels were low. We compared chamber-based gas fluxes from the cove in flooded (July) and dry (August) months to fluxes measured with an eddy covariance tower whose footprint covers flooded portions of the wetland. The diurnal pattern of carbon fluxes at the tower did not vary with changing water levels but remained a CO 2 sink and a CH 4 source even when the cove where we performed the chamber measurements dried out. Furthermore, these results emphasize the role of inundation status on wetland carbon cycling and highlight the importance of fluctuating hydrologic patterns, especially hydrologic drawdowns, under changing climatic conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗

Establishing connectivity patterns of eastern oysters ( Crassostrea virginica ) on regional oceanographic scales

Localized depletion of marine and estuarine populations often results from large-scale natural and anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., hurricanes, oil spills) as well as overharvest of fisheries resources. Understanding how such localized depletions may affect populations at larger regional scales requires knowledge of connectivity among local populations within the larger regional landscape or metapopulation. Efforts to restore populations following such decreases require similar knowledge. During the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill, dramatic declines of oysters occurred throughout estuaries west and east of the Mississippi River. We examined trajectories of particles, which were parameterized to mimic oyster larvae, using the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC; https://adcirc.org ) model to evaluate potential connectivity within and among embayments from Western Louisiana to Alabama. Patterns of larval settlement, which we defined as the intersection of a larval particle with known or expected oyster habitat at any point 13–21 days post-release, reflected much greater local contributions, with 50%–90% of settled particles originating within the same subdivision of embayments. Exchange among subdivision was much less (0%–40%) and settlement originating from outside the embayment of release was trivial under most scenarios (0%–14%). Connectivity between adjacent basins was greatest for larvae released in the southern portions of the embayment, whereas connectivity among nonadjacent basins was not predicted under the scenarios modeled. Because most local populations are relatively isolated on ecological timescales, areas suffering from extensive local depletion are likely to require extensive time to recover due to the lack of larval subsidy from the overall regional population. Restoration would require building stepping-stone populations or reefs within and among basin to restore a high degree of connectivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Toward Validation of Toxicological Interpretation of Diffusive Gradients in Thin Films in Marine Waters Impacted by Copper

Determination of Mytilus galloprovincialis larvae median effect concentration (EC50), of Cu in coastal marine waters by diffusive gradient in thin-films (DGT), has been shown to effectively reduce the need to consider dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and quality. West coast marine and estuarine organisms’ chronic toxicity test protocol was used to validate previously modelled protective effects, afforded to highly sensitive marine larvae by ligand competition, in five diverse site waters. The results demonstrate significant narrowing of toxicological endpoints, where EC50s ranged from 3.74 – 6.67 µg/L as CDGT Cu versus 8.76 – 26.8 µg/L as CuDISS over a DOC range of 0.74 – 3.11 mg/L. Additionally, DOC quality (characterized by fluorescence excitation and emission matrices) indicates that the heterogeneity of competing Cu binding ligands, in common marine waters, minimizes the need for class determinations toward explaining the degree of protection, when assumptions in criterion maximum concentration (CMC) setting are conservative. A CDGT Cu EC50 of 3.7 µg/L, and corresponding CMC CDGT Cu of 1.8 µg/L, for universal application by regulatory compliance-monitoring programs, are proposed as a superior approach toward both integration of dynamic water quality over effective exposure periods and quantification of biologically-relevant trace Cu speciation and are demonstrated by in situ data.

Diffusive Gradients in Thin-films, copper, seawate↗

Seasonal and tidal variations in hydrologic inputs drive salt marsh porewater nitrate dynamics

Salt marshes remove terrestrially derived nutrients en route to coasts. While these systems play a critical role in improving water quality, we still have a limited understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of biogeochemically reactive solutes and processes within salt marshes. We implemented a high-frequency sampling system to monitor sub-hourly nitrate (NO$^{–}_{3}$) concentrations in salt marsh porewater at Elkhorn Slough in central California, USA. We instrumented three marsh positions along an elevation gradient subjected to different amounts of tidal inundation, which we predicted would lead to varied biogeochemical characteristics and hydrological interactions. At each marsh position, we continuously monitored porewater NO$^{–}_{3}$ concentrations at depths of 10, 30, and 50 cm and porewater levels measured at 70 cm depth over seven deployments of ~10 days each that spanned seasonal wet/dry periods common to Mediterranean climates. We quantified tidal event hysteresis between NO$^{–}_{3}$ and water level to understand how NO$^{–}_{3}$ concentrations and sources fluctuate across tidal cycles. In dry periods, the NO$^{–}_{3}$-porewater level relationship indicated that the NO$^{–}_{3}$ source was likely estuarine surface water that flooded the transect during high tides and the salt marsh was a NO$^{–}_{3}$ sink. In wet periods, the NO$^{–}_{3}$-porewater level relationship suggested the salt marsh was a source of NO$^{–}_{3}$. Finally, these findings suggest that tidal and seasonal hydrologic fluxes together control NO$^{–}_{3}$ porewater dynamics and export and influence ecological processes in coastal environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗