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Results for “evolutionary predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Lithium in the most extreme halo stars - Trends with metallicity

A grid of extremely metal-poor stellar evolutionary tracks (Z = 0.00001) is constructed to compare the predicted lithium abundance depletion to observations of the lithium abundance in correspondingly metal-poor stars (Fe/H = -3.3), and, combined with an earlier work to investigate trends of lithium isochrones with metal abundance. Lithium abundances in the most extreme halo stars hint at the possibility of small downward slope toward lower T(eff) in the flat Li-T(eff) relation (the Spite lithium plateau) observed in slightly less extreme stars; the models also predict this. In the cool star region of the Li-T(eff) plane, higher metallicity lithium isochromes are cooler at fixed lithium abundance, consistent with the observations. Current data thus agree well with the lithium trends from standard model.

Deliyannis, Constantine P.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Testing and Analysis of NEXT Ion Engine Discharge Cathode Assembly Wear

Experimental and analytical investigations were conducted to predict the wear of the discharge cathode keeper in the NASA Evolutionary Xenon Thruster. The ion current to the keeper was found to be highly dependent upon the beam current, and the average beam current density was nearly identical to that of the NSTAR thruster for comparable beam current density. The ion current distribution was highly peaked toward the keeper orifice. A deterministic wear assessment predicted keeper orifice erosion to the same diameter as the cathode tube after processing 375 kg of xenon. A rough estimate of discharge cathode assembly life limit due to sputtering indicated that the current design exceeds the qualification goal of 405 kg. Probabilistic wear analysis showed that the plasma potential and the sputter yield contributed most to the uncertainty in the wear assessment. It was recommended that fundamental experimental and modeling efforts focus on accurately describing the plasma potential and the sputtering yield.

Domonkos, Matthew T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Band-Gap of Inorganic Materials Using Neuromorphic Graph Learning

Predicting properties of inorganic materials is a heavily researched topic, with several new prediction approaches emerging as competitors. One such competitor is graph neural networks, which leverage the structure of the graph to aid in the prediction process. In this work, we propose integration of neuromorphic computation into the graph neural network pipeline. We call this approach Neuromorphic Graph Learning (NGL). We utilize the NGL approach to leverage evolutionary algorithms and a novel Spike Pipeline for Raster Analysis (SPIRE) for the prediction of band gap in inorganic materials.

Mulet, Ian [University of Tennessee (UT)]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional protein mining with conformal guarantees

Molecular structure prediction and homology detection offer promising paths to discovering protein function and evolutionary relationships. However, current approaches lack statistical reliability assurances, limiting their practical utility for selecting proteins for further experimental and in-silico characterization. To address this challenge, we introduce a statistically principled approach to protein search leveraging principles from conformal prediction, offering a framework that ensures statistical guarantees with user-specified risk and provides calibrated probabilities (rather than raw ML scores) for any protein search model. Our method (1) lets users select many biologically-relevant loss metrics (i.e. false discovery rate) and assigns reliable functional probabilities for annotating genes of unknown function; (2) achieves state-of-the-art performance in enzyme classification without training new models; and (3) robustly and rapidly pre-filters proteins for computationally intensive structural alignment algorithms. Our framework enhances the reliability of protein homology detection and enables the discovery of uncharacterized proteins with likely desirable functional properties.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multisubstrate specificity shaped the complex evolution of the aminotransferase family across the tree of life

Aminotransferases (ATs) are an ancient enzyme family that play central roles in core nitrogen metabolism, essential to all organisms. However, many of the AT enzyme functions remain poorly defined, limiting our fundamental understanding of the nitrogen metabolic networks that exist in different organisms. Here, we traced the deep evolutionary history of the AT family by analyzing AT enzymes from 90 species spanning the tree of life (ToL). We found that each organism has maintained a relatively small and constant number of ATs. Mapping the distribution of ATs across the ToL uncovered that many essential AT reactions are carried out by taxon-specific AT enzymes due to wide-spread nonorthologous gene displacements. This complex evolutionary history explains the difficulty of homology-based AT functional prediction. Biochemical characterization of diverse aromatic ATs further revealed their broad substrate specificity, unlike other core metabolic enzymes that evolved to catalyze specific reactions today. Interestingly, however, we found that these AT enzymes that diverged over billion years share common signatures of multisubstrate specificity by employing different nonconserved active site residues. These findings illustrate that AT family enzymes had leveraged their inherent substrate promiscuity to maintain a small yet distinct set of multifunctional AT enzymes in different taxa. This evolutionary history of versatile ATs likely contributed to the establishment of robust and diverse nitrogen metabolic networks that exist throughout the ToL. The study provides a critical foundation to systematically determine diverse AT functions and underlying nitrogen metabolic networks across the ToL.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

The effect of Livermore OPAL opacities on the evolutionary masses of RR Lyrae stars

We have investigated the effect of the new Livermore OPAL opacities on the evolution of horizontal-branch (HB) stars. This work was motivated by the recent stellar pulsation calculations using the new Livermore opacities, which suggest that the masses of double-mode RR Lyrae stars are 0.1-0.2 solar mass larger than those based on earlier opacities. Unlike the pulsation calculations, we find that the effect of opacity change on the evolution of HB stars is not significant. In particular, the effect of the mean masses of RR Lyrae stars is very small, showing a decrease of only 0.01-0.02 solar mass compared to the models based on old Cox-Stewart opacities. Consequently, with the new Livermore OPAL opacities, both the stellar pulsation and evolution models now predict approximately the same masses for the RR Lyrae stars. Our evolutionary models suggest that the mean masses of the RR Lyrae stars are about 0.76 and about 0.71 solar mass for M15 (Oosterhoff group II) and M3 (group I), respectively. If (alpha/Fe) = 0.4, these values are decreased by about 0.03 solar mass. Variations of the mean masses of RR Lyrae stars with HB morphology and metallicity are also presented.

Yi, Sukyoung↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraints on White Dwarf Hydrogen Layer Masses Using Gravitational Redshifts

The hydrogen envelope is the outermost layer of a DA white dwarf; it makes up the entirety of the stellar photosphere, and yet its typical extent is difficult to model theoretically and remains poorly observationally constrained. As a result, hydrogen envelope mass is a substantial source of systematic uncertainty in the physical properties of white dwarfs, including overall masses and cooling ages. In this work, we fit a Gaussian mixture model to gravitational redshifts from high-resolution spectroscopy, paired with radius measurements from Gaia BP/RP spectra, to measure the mass–radius relation for a sample of 468 white dwarfs. Our results are in excellent agreement with the predicted mass–radius relations of state-of-the-art evolutionary models, including those from the MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) library. We find that mass–radius relations such as those from MIST that assume a thick and mass-dependent hydrogen envelope are preferred by the observed probability density function over models that assume a hydrogen envelope of constant mass. Proper treatment of the evolution of white dwarf progenitors is thus important for accurately modeling the mass–radius relation. Our results indicate that gravitational redshift measurements of large samples of white dwarfs in wide binaries are promising probes of the hydrogen envelope masses of DA white dwarfs.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
NASA NTRS1978

Engineering in the 21st century

Reasonable evolutionary trends in federal outlays for aerospace research and development predict a continuing decline in real resources (1970 dollars) until the mid eighties, and a growth thereafter to the 1970 level by 2000, still well below the 1966 peak. Employment levels will parallel this trend with no shortage of available personnel foreseen. These trends characterize a maturing industry. Shifts in outlook toward the economic use of resources, rather than minimum risk at any cost, and toward missions aligned with societal needs and broad national goals will accompany these trends. These shifts in outlook will arise in part in academia, and will, in turn, influence engineering education. By 2000, space technology will have achieved major advances in the management of information, in space transportation, in space structures, and in energy. The economics of space systems must be the primary consideration if the space program foreseen for the 21st century is to become an actuality.

Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Ship and satellite bio-optical research in the California Bight

Mesoscale biological patterns and processes in productive coastal waters were studied. The physical and biological processes leading to chlorophyll variability were investigated. The ecological and evolutionary significance of this variability, and its relation to the prediction of fish recruitment and marine mammal distributions was studied. Seasonal primary productivity (using chlorophyll as an indication of phytoplankton biomass) for the entire Southern California Bight region was assessed. Complementary and contemporaneous ship and satellite (Nimbus 7-CZCS) bio-optical data from the Southern California Bight and surrounding waters were obtained and analyzed. These data were also utilized for the development of multi-platform sampling strategies and the optimization of algorithms for the estimation of phytoplankton biomass and primary production from satellite imagery.

Smith, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Search for the Gamma Lyrid Progenitor

On 5 February 2015, a previously unknown meteor shower, the γ Lyrids were observed for the first time. Because of the Sun-Earth-Moon viewing geometry, however, stream members were observed almost exclusively by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). The γ Lyrids did not appear again until 2018, and that outburst was stronger than in 2015. This study analyzed the 2015 and 2018 CMOR data in order to determine the orbital parameters of the stream in an attempt to determine the γ Lyrid parent body. Of primary importance is to determine if the γ Lyrids will recur in a predictable manner. Two bodies, with dramatically different orbital parameters and evolutionary behaviors, emerged as the leading candidates: 2003 EH1 and 1854 R1.

Grazier, Kevin R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Ultrahigh energy neutrinos from galactic neutron stars

An attempt is made to estimate the production rate of ultrahigh energy (UHE) neutrinos from galactic neutron stars. The statistics of various stellar populations are reviewed as well as an evolutionary scheme linking several neutron star environments. An observational test for predicting stellar evolution is made using two mass ratio intervals of less than 0.3 and greater than or approximately equal to 0.3, which is supported by kinematical evidence. Attention is given to the problem of the target material that is required by UHE protons accelerated from the pulsar's surface to their rotational kinetic energy, and to the detectability of neutron stars in the UHE neutrinos by employing the deep underwater muon and neutrino detector (DUMAND) array.

Helfand, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

System model development for nuclear thermal propulsion

A critical enabling technology in the evolutionary development of nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) is the ability to predict the system performance under a variety of operating conditions. This is crucial for mission analysis and for control subsystem testing as well as for the modeling of various failure modes. Performance must be accurately predicted during steady-state and transient operation, including startup, shutdown, and post operation cooling. The development and application of verified and validated system models has the potential to reduce the design, testing, and cost and time required for the technology to reach flight-ready status. Since Oct. 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Defense (DOD), and NASA have initiated critical technology development efforts for NTP systems to be used on Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions to the Moon and Mars. This paper presents the strategy and progress of an interagency NASA/DOE/DOD team for NTP system modeling. It is the intent of the interagency team to develop several levels of computer programs to simulate various NTP systems. The first level will provide rapid, parameterized calculations of overall system performance. Succeeding computer programs will provide analysis of each component in sufficient detail to guide the design teams and experimental efforts. The computer programs will allow simulation of the entire system to allow prediction of the integrated performance. An interagency team was formed for this task to use the best capabilities available and to assure appropriate peer review.

Walton, James T.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Development of NASA/DOE NTP System Performance Models

A critical enabling technology in the evolutionary development of Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) is the ability to predict the system performance under a variety of operating conditions. The ability to predict the system performance is critical for mission analysis and for control subsystem testing, as well as for the modeling of various failure modes. Performance must be accurately predicted during steady-state and transient operation, such as start-up, shut-down and after-cooling. The development and application of verified and validated system models has the potential to reduce testing, cost and time required for the technology to again reach flight-ready status. An integrated NASA/DOE team was formed in late 1991 to develop and implement a strategy for modeling NTP systems. It is the intent of the interagency team to develop several levels of computer programs, which vary in detail, to simulate NTP systems based on either prismatic, particle or advanced fuel forms. This paper presents an overview of the models under development by the interagency team. In addition, the status of the development and validation efforts for the Level 1 steady-state parametric model is discussed.

Walton, James T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

The macroevolution of filamentation morphology across the Saccharomycotina yeast subphylum

Saccharomycotina is a subphylum of ascomycete fungi with diverse asexual growth morphologies. Filamentous growth can comprise linear and branched budding cells that do not undergo cell separation, termed pseudohyphae, or tubular filaments with septa that perforate allowing movement of organelles, termed true hyphae. We integrated phenotypic, genomic, metabolic, and environmental data on isolation sources from 1051 species to examine the variation and evolutionary history of filamentation across Saccharomycotina and determine whether these data could predict filamentation types. We found that 63.37% of strains can form filaments; 6.56% true hyphae, 42.40% pseudohyphae, and 14.39% both true hyphae and pseudohyphae. The distributions of species that can produce true hyphae or filament were more strongly correlated with the yeast phylogeny than the distribution of species with pseudohyphae. Ancestral state reconstruction suggested that true hyphal and pseudohyphal morphologies evolved several times, that most yeast ancestors likely produced pseudohyphae or lacked filaments, and that the Saccharomycotina last common ancestor likely produced pseudohyphae but not true hyphae. Machine learning models trained on genomic and metabolic features predicted filament morphologies with ∼70% accuracy. Connecting the evolution of morphologies to their genomic, physiological, and ecological characteristics will enrich our understanding of how the diversity of lifestyles evolved in Saccharomycotina.

Saccharomycotina↗
NASA NTRS2017

Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of convergent or parallel evolution, which suggests that under certain conditions similar solutions are arrived at independently.

Universal biology; life everywhere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Eco-evolutionary strategies for relieving carbon limitation under salt stress differ across microbial clades

With the continuous expansion of saline soils under climate change, understanding the eco-evolutionary tradeoff between the microbial mitigation of carbon limitation and the maintenance of functional traits in saline soils represents a significant knowledge gap in predicting future soil health and ecological function. Through shotgun metagenomic sequencing of coastal soils along a salinity gradient, we show contrasting eco-evolutionary directions of soil bacteria and archaea that manifest in changes to genome size and the functional potential of the soil microbiome. In salt environments with high carbon requirements, bacteria exhibit reduced genome sizes associated with a depletion of metabolic genes, while archaea display larger genomes and enrichment of salt-resistance, metabolic, and carbon-acquisition genes. This suggests that bacteria conserve energy through genome streamlining when facing salt stress, while archaea invest in carbon-acquisition pathways to broaden their resource usage. These findings suggest divergent directions in eco-evolutionary adaptations to soil saline stress amongst microbial clades and serve as a foundation for understanding the response of soil microbiomes to escalating climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Divergent trait controls on soluble sugars and starch underlie global strategies of tree carbohydrate storage

Nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) stores buffer tree metabolism, osmotic regulation, and defense, thereby mediating tolerance and survival under climate extremes. Yet, the functional and evolutionary determinants of interspecific variation in NSC remain elusive, limiting understanding and prediction of forest carbon allocation and mortality under global change. Here, we present a cross-species synthesis of NSC concentrations across multiple organs for 281 woody species from 102 mixed forest communities worldwide, where we quantified species-specific deviations from community means to disentangle intrinsic trait effects from environmental and methodological variation. We found phylogenetic signals in NSC deviations, with coniferous gymnosperms and evergreen species consistently maintaining lower stem soluble sugars and starch concentrations than co-occurring angiosperms and deciduous species, respectively. A global pattern emerged where greater stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential was associated with declines in the relative concentrations of both sugars and starch. In contrast, xylem hydraulic safety traits showed weak and organ-dependent relationships with NSC concentrations. Sugars increased with photosynthetic capacity and declined with wood density, whereas starch showed the reverse pattern, which aligned with the distinct functional-metabolic roles of sugars and starch. By integrating trait-based ecology with a community-centered framework, our study provides global evidence that stomatal regulation, photosynthetic capacity, specific leaf area, and wood density jointly govern interspecific NSC variation, through contrasting effects on sugars and starch. These are among the most broadly measured traits globally, thus the emergent carbohydrate–trait relationships can have broad applications toward understanding and predicting forest growth and survival under climate change.

tropic system↗
NASA NTRS2000

On the Origin and Evolution of Stellar Chromospheres, Coronae and Winds

This grant was awarded by NASA to The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) to construct state-of-the-art, theoretical, two-component, chromospheric models for single stars of different spectral types and different evolutionary status. In our proposal, we suggested to use these models to predict the level of the "basal flux", the observed range of variation of chromospheric activity for a given spectral type, and the decrease of this activity with stellar age. In addition, for red giants and supergiants, we also proposed to construct self-consistent, purely theoretical wind models, and used these models to investigate the origin of "dividing lines" in the H-R diagram. In the following, we describe our completed work. We have accomplished the first main goal of our proposal by constructing first purely theoretical, time-dependent and two-component models of stellar chromospheres.1 The models require specifying only three basic stellar parameters, namely, the effective temperature, gravity and rotation rate, and they take into account non-magnetic and magnetic regions in stellar chromospheres. The non-magnetic regions are heated by acoustic waves generated by the turbulent convection in the stellar subphotospheric layers. The magnetic regions are identified with magnetic flux tubes uniformly distributed over the entire stellar surface and they are heated by longitudinal tube waves generated by turbulent motions in the subphotospheric and photospheric layers. The coverage of stellar surface by magnetic regions (the so-called filling factor) is estimated for a given rotation rate from an observational relationship. The constructed models are time-dependent and are based on the energy balance between the amount of mechanical energy supplied by waves and radiative losses in strong Ca II and Mg II emission lines. To calculate the amount of wave energy in the non-magnetic regions, we have used the Lighthill-Stein theory for sound generation.

Musielak, Z. E.↗