Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “expanded uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

FY2022 Status Update: A Probabilistic Model for Stress Corrosion Cracking of SNF Dry Storage Canisters

Understanding the potential risk of stress corrosion cracking of spent nuclear fuel dry storage canisters has been identified as a knowledge gap for determining the safety of long-term interim storage of spent nuclear fuel. To address this, the DOE is funding a multi-lab DOE effort to understand the timing, occurrence, and consequences of potential canister SCC. Sandia National Laboratories has developed a probabilistic model for canister penetration by SCC. This model has been continuously updated at SNL since 2014. Model uncertainties are treated using a nested loop structure, where the outer loop accounts for uncertainties due to lack of data and the inner aleatoric loop accounts for uncertainties due to variation in nature. By separating uncertainties into these categories, it is possible to focus future work on reducing the most influential epistemic uncertainties. Several experimental studies have already been performed to improve the modeling approach through expanded process understanding and improved model parameterization. The resulting code is physics-based and intended to inform future work by identifying (1) important modeling assumptions, (2) experimental data needs, and (3) necessary model developments. In this document, several of the sub-models in the probabilistic SCC model have been exercised, and the intermediate results, as the model progresses from one sub-model to the next, are presented. Evaluating the sub-models in this manner provides a better understanding of sub-model outputs and has identified several unintended consequences of model assumptions or parameterizations, requiring updates to the modeling approach. The following updates have been made, and future updates have been identified.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity Analysis of Irradiated Fueled Experiments using the MOOSE Framework [Slides]

Modeling and simulation (M&S) methods are able to predict uncertainties in experimental parameters (e.g., power and fission density) during irradiation. A shortfall exists in predicting how sensitive some of the parameters will behave during the experimental process. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification (SUQ) is critical in support of qualification and licensing reactor fuels. The application of a method to quantify the uncertainty in these experiments is critical to the prediction of their performance. In this work, we propose the use of a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method to quantify the sensitive parameters in these simulations and, in an extension, their experimental surrogates. We propose to perform M&S using PCE uncertainty quantification on a previously irradiated fueled experiment in order to provide a validation case for Griffin and expand its use as a verification and validation (V&V) tool for experiments with a neutronics component. Griffin is an advanced, deterministic neutronics analysis code built using the MOOSE (multiphysics object-oriented simulation environment) framework which can provide state-of-the-art neutronic analysis on M&S of experiments. We will use the stochastic tools module (STM) in MOOSE to provide PCE uncertainty quantification on the proposed experimental setup. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) does not yet have an in-house developed code with V&V approval for experiments performed on-site; this work would provide a necessary addition of support for experiments performed at INL. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has explicitly requested uncertainties in calculated values such as fuel power and burnup, and the development of this capability would benefit the relationship between INL and the NRC.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Safety Criteria Evaluation

There has been recent progress in the development of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage the insights gained from detailed risk assessments and utilize performance-based metrics to permit flexibility and innovation. The RIPB approaches have included the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. A preceding study conducted in FY21 noted that there are certain challenges to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, which are primarily the result of uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The current work expands on the previous study by examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance. The evaluation identified potential challenges in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with cumulative safety criteria metrics, such as the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The current work details this evaluation and key findings. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coherent J/ψ photoproduction at midrapidity in Pb – Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

The coherent J∕𝜓 photoproduction cross section is measured for the first time at midrapidity in peripheral to semicentral P b − P b collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV. The centrality differential cross section d 𝜎 ∕d𝑦 is reported for the centrality range 40–90%, together with the doubly-differential cross section d 2 𝜎∕d𝑦d𝑝 T , extracted in two peripheral centrality classes. The J∕𝜓 mesons are reconstructed in the dielectron channel, in the rapidity interval |𝑦| < 0.9 using the ALICE central barrel detectors. The J∕𝜓 cross section at midrapidity is statistically compatible to the earlier ALICE measurement at forward rapidity and at the same centre-of-mass energy, and shows only a mild centrality dependence over the covered range. Several sets of theoretical calculations taking into account the hadronic overlap in the collisions but ignoring possible final-state effects from a hot expanding medium are found to give a fairly good description of the current measurements within uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost

Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst represents an accelerating climate feedback, but uncertainties remain about how ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation interact to shape landscape change and carbon fluxes. We extended the process-based model ecosys to simulate thermokarst dynamics in laterally coupled 2D transects at a well-characterized boreal peatland site in Canada’s Northwest Territories. After benchmarking against site observations, we varied ground ice content and hydrologic boundary conditions across ranges typical near the southern permafrost limit. Simulations revealed distinct degradation regimes governed by the elevation difference between the frost table and the external water table. Rates of lateral retreat, the thaw-driven encroachment of wetlands into adjacent plateaus, ranged from 0 to >2 m yr −1 under identical weather forcing, consistent with observations and highlighting the strong role of WT and ground ice. Simulated vegetation dynamics indicate that black spruce mortality cannot be explained by anoxia alone, pointing to additional stressors such as root damage, pathogens, or physical destabilization. Despite large hydrologic shifts, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange remained a slight sink after collapse, while methane (CH 4 ) emissions rose by one to two orders of magnitude. As a result, lateral retreat substantially increases the greenhouse warming potential of permafrost peatlands (1.7 million km 2 in area), with simulated emissions of 0.1–10 Mt CO 2 -eq decade −1 depending on hydrology and retreat rates. These results underscore the need to account for both ground ice and hydrologic dynamics when assessing thermokarst-driven climate feedbacks.

carbon cycling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Description and Use of SCALE Sampler Parametric Capability for Engineering Analysis and Optimization

The Sampler sequence was introduced into the SCALE nuclear modeling and simulation suite in SCALE 6.2 to perform uncertainty quantification via random sampling of nuclear data, material number densities, and dimensions. Sampler was expanded with the introduction of a parametric capability in SCALE 6.2.2. This paper discusses input for the Sampler parametric sequence and presents two case studies of analyses performed using the sequence. These case studies include preconceptual design of a package for transporting high assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) oxide and scoping calculations to support subcritical limit development for a future update of the ANSI/ANS-8.1 (ANS-8.1) standard. The parametric capability within Sampler provides many benefits to analysts. For instance, parametric sweeps are frequently used to identify optimum parameter values as part of safety analysis or system design, but such sweeps can require substantial engineering time or may rely on custom-written scripts or scripts such as Write One, Run Many (or WORM) developed outside of any software quality assurance program. With the parametric capabilities in Sampler, however, a large number of inputs can be generated automatically without recourse to scripting by individual analysts. The parametric capability can also be used in lieu of the CSAS5S search sequence to identify optimum parameters more simply with straightforward inputs and outputs. Sampler can also be used to calculate input parameters from engineering specifications. For example, diameters can be converted to radii, or masses can be used to calculate number densities. Overall, the Sampler parametric capability provides a robust feature within SCALE, eliminating the need for user-developed scripting.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Plutonium migration and phase evolution in irradiated U-Pu-Zr metallic fuels: An integrated EPMA-SEM-TEM study

Constituent redistribution is a defining feature of irradiated U-Pu-Zr metallic fuels, yet its mechanisms and effects on fuel performance are not sufficiently resolved to guide model development. Although decades of irradiation testing have established broad trends, a true mechanistic understanding of constituent redistribution has not been achieved. Here, in this study, we use electron probe microanalysis (EPMA), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and transmission electron microscopy-based (TEM) selective area electron diffraction (SAED) on a EBR-II irradiated U-19 wt.% Pu-6 wt.% Zr fuel pin cross-section to correlate the composition, porosity, and crystallographic phases formed after irradiation. Constituent redistribution is thought to consist of three distinct zones, in which uranium and zirconium migrate while plutonium remains relatively unchanged. Our EPMA results resolve eight distinct compositional regions, and more importantly, show that plutonium redistributes alongside zirconium, contrary to historical assumptions. The distribution of fission products was highly asymmetric with a few large lanthanide precipitates observed at isolated sites on the pin periphery instead of a uniform distribution of smaller precipitates around the periphery. Using thermodynamic data from TAF-ID and the measured EPMA compositions, matrix phase fractions were predicted across the fuel radius. Phase predictions based on composition did not match TEM/SAED results, which revealed a much higher fraction of α−U phase than would be expected if phases were retained from reactor temperatures. These findings highlight the need for expanded SAED phase identification to capture post-irradiation and storage effects, as well as rigorous uncertainty quantification in fuel performance and phase diagram modeling to better constrain predictions from compositional data.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transducerless time domain reflectance measurement of semiconductor thermal properties

The dominant techniques for laser-based thermal measurement, time-domain thermoreflectance (TDTR) and frequency-domain thermoreflectance, generally require that samples be coated with a metal transducer layer. The properties of the transducer and its interface to the sample are then important to the interpretation of results, and heat conduction in the transducer layer can limit measurements of ultra-thin samples or in-plane conductivity. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of measuring semiconductor samples using standard TDTR instrumentation, without the use of a metal transducer. A mathematical model accounting for non-zero laser penetration depth as well as both thermal and charge carrier effects is presented, and the ability of the model to describe and fit to experimental data for silicon and germanium samples is demonstrated. Though at this stage measurement uncertainties are larger than for traditional TDTR, we anticipate that the use of this technique will expand the range of samples that can be measured with existing TDTR setups.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Assessment of Current Understanding of the Greenhouse Gas Impacts from H 2 Emissions

With the anticipated growth in hydrogen generation and use as part of a broad shift in energy use away from fossil fuels, concerns have been raised regarding the impact of increased H 2 emissions on global warming. Atmospheric scientists have long recognized that H 2 emissions into the atmosphere do have an indirect impact on global warming, largely because a portion of emitted H 2 is consumed by the hydroxyl radical (OH), which is the primary reactant that removes the potent greenhouse gas methane from the atmosphere. Therefore, increases in H 2 emissions will result in decreases in the average OH concentrations in the atmosphere and an increase in the atmospheric lifetime of methane. Various assessments of the impact of H 2 emissions on global warming have been performed over the past couple of decades. These assessments have yielded significant variability and recognized uncertainty in the magnitude of the warming effect of a given quantity of emitted H 2 , and an even greater uncertainty in the magnitude of H 2 leakage and releases that can be anticipated with an expanded H 2 infrastructure. Consequently, definitive estimates of the magnitude of the warming effect of additional emitted H 2 are lacking. However, given the current understanding of the warming potential of emitted H 2 and given reasonable expectations of the emission rate of an expanded H 2 infrastructure, it is anticipated that warming effects from emitted H 2 will offset no more than 5% of the reduction in warming associated with avoided CO 2 emissions from using clean H 2 . Further, it is highly unlikely that the warming effects from emitted H 2 will offset more than 10% of the benefit from avoided CO 2 emissions, at least as considered over a typical 100-year accounting period. Because of the short atmospheric lifetimes of H 2 and methane, however, the warming effect of emitted H 2 is enhanced over the first few years following increases in H 2 emission.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

NE-COST plug-in: Expanding ACCERT's Capabilities for Life-Cycle Cost Modeling

The Algorithm for the Capital Cost Estimation of Reactor Technologies (ACCERT) is a structured methodology and software tool designed to simplify and standardize cost estimation for nuclear reactor technologies [1]. By utilizing a relational database structure and modular cost estimation algorithms, ACCERT delivers a robust, flexible, and scalable framework for evaluating costs across various reactor types and configurations [2]. The recent integration of the NE-COST plugin further expands ACCERT’s scope by introducing detailed life-cycle cost modeling and probabilistic analysis of uncertainties. This addition enables users to evaluate costs across front-end processes such as uranium enrichment and fabrication, as well as back-end activities including waste disposal and geologic storage. Through Monte Carlo statistical cost simulations, the plugin provides probabilistic insights into cost ranges, offering critical decision-making support for stakeholders including reactor developers, policymakers, and researchers.

Zhou, Jia↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving Stochastic Inverse Problems for Property–Structure Linkages Using Data-Consistent Inversion and Machine Learning

Determining process–structure–property linkages is one of the key objectives in material science, and uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in understanding both process–structure and structure–property linkages. In this work, we seek to learn a distribution of microstructure parameters that are consistent in the sense that the forward propagation of this distribution through a crystal plasticity finite element model matches a target distribution on materials properties. This stochastic inversion formulation infers a distribution of acceptable/consistent microstructures, as opposed to a deterministic solution, which expands the range of feasible designs in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, to solve this stochastic inverse problem, we employ a recently developed uncertainty quantification framework based on push-forward probability measures, which combines techniques from measure theory and Bayes’ rule to define a unique and numerically stable solution. This approach requires making an initial prediction using an initial guess for the distribution on model inputs and solving a stochastic forward problem. To reduce the computational burden in solving both stochastic forward and stochastic inverse problems, we combine this approach with a machine learning Bayesian regression model based on Gaussian processes and demonstrate the proposed methodology on two representative case studies in structure–property linkages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗
DOE OSTI2020

Status Update on the High Precision Isotopic Measurements on High Burnup LWR Fuel in 2020

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is currently investigating the feasibility of directly disposing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs) in a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) repository. Criticality during the repository performance period (10,000 years or more) is one of the major concerns related to direct disposal of DPCs, specifically as the system undergoes degradation in the repository environment and timeframe. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is developing an as-loaded criticality analysis methodology using full (actinides + fission products) burnup credit that exploits the inherent criticality margin associated with actual canister-specific loading configuration. Burnup credit criticality analysis requires validation of the depletion/decay codes used to generate the burned isotopic inventory of an assembly by comparing the code-predicted inventory with experimentally determined isotopic data. Currently, isotopic measurement data for boiling water reactors (BWR) SNF are limited, and additional measurements will be highly beneficial for BWR burnup credit analysis, which is essential to demonstrate disposability of BWR DPCs. Moreover, new pressurized water reactor (PWR) samples of isotopic measurements will expand the PWR sample population and consequently will greatly improve sample statistics. In turn, this will reduce uncertainty in the computational determination of the isotopic composition of commercial SNF and eliminate additional penalties currently used for lack of data. As part of the isotopic analysis task, eight diverse, high burnup (HBU) samples from several PWR rods are being dissolved and isotopically analyzed to provide high-quality measurement data for PWR SNF to reducing the uncertainties associated with PWR isotopic depletion validation. The isotopics of interest focus on nuclides important to burnup credit, shielding, and decay heat in PWR SNF. Additionally, eight high burnup BWR fuel samples from the Limerick nuclear power plant have been identified for measurement to support reducing uncertainties associated with BWR isotopic depletion validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of Lateral Conduction in a Rectangular Fuel Plate and Optimum Stripe Widths for the OPAL Reactor

The impetus for this work is the Proliferation Resistance Optimization (PRO-X) program, which was created by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) to provide a framework for developing reactor designs that minimize the production of special nuclear materials while maximizing performance for peaceful uses. The Argentine company INVAP and Argonne National Laboratory collaborated to share knowledge and expertise regarding the thermal analysis of research reactors. Working together, they designed a series of test problems based on the Open Pool Australian Light Water (OPAL) reactor, whose fuel is in the form of flat plates cooled by water flowing through narrow rectangular channels. ANL used their PLTEMP/ANL code. INVAP used their TERMIC code (and its new multi-plate version, TERMIC-MP). Then, INVAP and ANL compared the two sets of results. 1-D models were used during the collaboration since for research reactor analysis, largely 1-D thermal-hydraulics models are commonly used because they are simple to apply and technically defendable. The collaboration between the two organizations aims for improvements in thermal-hydraulic models. Improvements to methods and models can reduce modeling uncertainties and excessive conservatism, allowing greater reactor performance without reducing predicted safety margins. Therefore, these improvements potentially expand the design space, making additional designs feasible, which, in turn, may achieve better fuel utilization and proliferation resistance in the designs. This report provides justification for the lateral node size (stripe width) chosen for the 1-D computer models during the collaboration. The lateral heat conduction in OPAL fuel plates is evaluated using the two-dimensional conduction capability of PLTEMP/ANL to determine a representative hot-stripe width that can be conservatively used for one-dimensional steady-state thermal-hydraulic analysis. Basically, a representative hot-stripe width needs to be selected so that the actual heat flux averaged over this stripe width is greater than or equal to the maximum heat flux obtained by the two-dimensional analysis. Detailed results in this report show that a hot-stripe width of 8.125 mm can be conservatively used for the one-dimensional thermal-hydraulics analysis of all plates. Therefore, eight equal stripes (8.125 mm each) are recommended to be modeled in the MCNP and PLTEMP/ANL full core models of the OPAL reactor.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automated theoretical chemical kinetics: Predicting the kinetics for the initial stages of pyrolysis

Large scale implementation of high level computational theoretical chemical kinetics offers the prospect for dramatically improving the fidelity of combustion chemical modeling. To facilitate such efforts, we have developed a suite of codes, collectively referred to as AutoMech, that allow for the automatic prediction of the kinetics for large sets of reactions via ab initio transition-state-theory based master-equation calculations. The primary input is simply the mechanism, a dictionary relating chemically identifiable species descriptors (e.g., SMILES or InChIs) to species labels in the mechanism, and a specification of the electronic structure and transition state theory models to be implemented. Here we illustrate the current utility of AutoMech through a study of the initial stages of pyrolysis for 3 sets of fuels: sequences of alkanes, alcohols, and aldehydes. For simplicity, the analysis focuses on abstractions from the fuel by H, CH 3 , and OH, and the decomposition of the resulting radicals. Altogether, there are a total of 166 input channels in these sets (more than 363 forward reactions when expanded to the full set of elementary reactions). The code successfully produces high quality rate estimates (with apparent uncertainties less than a factor of two in limited comparisons with experiment) for > 95% of these. For the radical decomposition reactions, the analysis includes predictions for the pressure dependence of the kinetics. This wide-ranging exploration illustrates (i) the effect of different levels of prediction on the expected accuracy, (ii) the branching between abstractions at different sites for different abstractors, (iii) the dependence of the rates on the chemical structure, and (iv) the variation in radical stabilities across chemical families. These results, as well as the demonstrated feasibility of the methodology, should find further utility in the development of accurate rate expressions for arbitrary fuels. (c) 2020 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elliott, Sarah N.↗