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NASA NTRS2021

The Arya Crop Yield Forecasting Algorithm: Application to the Main Wheat Exporting Countries

Wheat is the most important commodity traded in the international food market. Thus, accurate and timely information on wheat production can help mitigate food price fluctuations. Within the existing operational regional and global scale agricultural monitoring systems that provide information on global crop yield and area forecasts, there are still fundamental gaps: #1. Lack of quantitative Earth Observation (EO) derived crop information, #2. Lack of global but detailed (national or subnational level) and timely crop production forecasts and #3. Lack of information on forecast uncertainties. In this study we present the Agriculture Remotely-sensed Yield Algorithm (ARYA) an EO-based method, advancing the state of EO data application and usage (addressing gap #1) to forecast wheat yield. The algorithm is based on the evolution of the Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) using MODIS data at 1km resolution and the Growing Degree Days (GDD) from reanalysis data. Additionally, we explore how Land Surface Temperature (LST) can be included into the model and whether this parameter adds any value to the model performance when combined with the optical information. ARYA is implemented at the national and subnational level to forecast winter wheat yield in the main wheat exporting countries of US, Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany, Australia and Argentina from 2001 to 2019 (covering over 70% of wheat exports globally) in a timely manner by providing daily forecasts (addressing gap #2). The results show that ARYA provides yield estimations with RMSE’s within 0.3 ± 0.1 t/ha at national level and 0.6 ± 0,1 t/ha at subnational level after Day Of the Year (DOY) 140 (mid May) in the Northern Hemisphere and DOY 280 (beginning of October) in the Southern Hemisphere. This means that ARYA can provide crop yield estimates of wheat yield with 5-15 % error at national and 7-20 % error at subnational level starting from 2 to 2.5 months prior to harvest.

Agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2021

Random vibration, exported vibration, and passive isolation testing of the Ricor K508N cryocooler

The Ricor K508N is a rotary Stirling Cryocooler whose predecessor, the K508, has extensive flight heritage. The K508N has significant potential as a low-cost option for CubeSat infrared electro-optical payload applications. This paper will explore the work done by the ATA project on the exported vibration characterization of a set of standard K508N cryocoolers (35 atm) and the implementation and performance comparison of several passive vibration isolation and damping technologies to help mitigate the jitter effect of COTS cryocoolers. Kistler Force dynamometers and accelerometers were used to measure the K508N’s body and cold tip Multicomponent Exported Forces and Torques (EFT). Wire rope and Pyrolytic Graphite Sheet thermal straps are used as vibration isolation technologies. The K508N also underwent sine sweep resonant and peak profile testing as well as random vibration testing to GEVS launch loads in a NanoRacks soft stow configuration.

Mok, M↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Transformation and Export of Organic Carbon Across an Arctic River-Delta-Ocean Continuum

The Arctic Ocean is surrounded by land that feeds highly seasonal rivers with water enriched in high concentrations of dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC). Explicit estimates of the flux of organic carbon across the land-ocean interface are difficult to quantify and many interdependent processes makes source attribution difficult. A high-resolution 3-D biogeochemical model was built for the lower Yukon River and coastal ocean to estimate biogeochemical cycling across the land-ocean continuum. The model solves for complex reactions related to organic carbon transformation, including mechanistic photodegradation and multi-reactivity microbial processing, DOC to POC flocculation, and phytoplankton dynamics. The baseline DOC and POC flux out of the delta from April to September 2019, was 977 and 536 Gg C (~80% of the annual total), but only 50% of the DOC and 25% of the POC exited the plume across the 10 m isobath. Microbial breakdown of DOC accounted for a net loss of 168 Gg C (17% of delta export) within the plume and photodegradation accounted for a net loss of 46.6 Gg C DOC (5% of delta export) in 2019. Flocculation decreased the total organic carbon flux by only 6.4 Gg C (~1%), while POC sinking accounted for 63.3 Gg C (10%) settling in the plume. The loss of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) due to photodegradation increased the light available for phytoplankton growth throughout the coastal ocean, demonstrating the secondary effects that organic carbon reactions can have on biological processes and the net coastal carbon flux.

Land-Ocean Continuum↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identification of a specific exporter that enables high production of aconitic acid in Aspergillus pseudoterreus

Aconitic acid is an unsaturated tricarboxylic acid that is attractive for its potential use in the manufacture of biodegradable and biocompatible polymers, plasticizers, and surfactants. Previously Aspergillus pseudoterreus was engineered as a platform to produce aconitic acid by deleting the cadA (cis-aconitic acid decarboxylase) gene in the itaconic acid biosynthetic pathway. In this study aconitic acid transporter gene (aexA) was identified using comparative global discovery proteomics analysis between the wild-type and cadA deletion strains. Deletion of aexA almost eliminated aconitic acid secretion, while its overexpression led to a significant increase in aconitic acid production. Transportation of aconitic acid across the plasma membrane is a key limiting step. In vitro proteoliposome transport assay further validated AexA’s function and its substrate specificity. This research provides new approaches to efficiently pinpoint and characterize exporters of fungal organic acids and accelerate the metabolic engineering to improve secretion capability and lower cost for bioproduction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Predictability of the Minimum Sea Ice Extent from Winter Fram Strait Ice Area Export: Model vs Observations

Observations show predictive skill of the minimum sea ice extent (Min SIE) from late winter anomalous off-shore ice drift along the Eurasian coastline – leading to local ice thickness anomalies at the onset of the melt season – a signal then amplified by the ice-albedo feedback. We assess whether the observed seasonal predictability of September sea ice extent (Sept SIE) from Fram Strait Ice Area Export (FSIAE, a proxy for Eurasian coastal divergence) is present in Global Climate Model (GCM) large ensembles, namely the CESM2-LE, GISS-E2.1-G, FLOR-LE, CNRM-CM6-1, and CanESM5. All models show distinct periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are negatively correlated with the May sea ice thickness (May SIT) anomalies along the Eurasian coastline, and the following Sept Arctic SIE, as in observations. Counter-intuitively, several models show occasional periods where winter FSIAE anomalies are positively correlated with the following Sept SIE anomalies when the mean ice thickness is large or late in the simulation when the sea ice is thin, and/or when internal variability increases. More importantly, periods with weak correlation between FSIAE and the Sept SIE dominate, suggesting that summer melt processes dominate over late winter preconditioning and May SIT anomalies. In general, we find that the coupling between the FSIAE and ice thickness anomalies along the Eurasian coastline is an ubiquitous feature of GCMs and that the relationship with the following Sept SIE is dependent on the mean Arctic sea ice thickness.

off-shore ice drift↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of anoxic lenses as exporters of reactivity in alluvial aquifer sediments

Sedimentary interfaces between contrasting hydrogeological facies in alluvial aquifers drive the development of biogeochemical interfaces that influence subsurface and surface water quality. Here, we calibrate a reactive transport model on a series of dual-domain column experiments, where centimeter-scale, low-permeability, organic-rich anoxic lenses are embedded in coarser-grained aquifer material. Simulations explicitly account for C, Fe, and S cycling at the interface between the lenses and the aquifer in water-saturated conditions. Our results highlight the role of fine-grained, organic-rich inclusions not only as sources or sinks for redox-sensitive species, but also as exporters of nutrients that stimulate downgradient biogeochemical cycling. By releasing large amounts of organic carbon into the surrounding aquifer, such lenses drive the development of proximal secondary reduction zones ("halos"), characterized by high microbial activity (e.g., sulfate reduction) and accumulation of reduced reaction products (e.g., iron sulfide). If similar secondary reduction zones develop within the hydraulically conductive domain of an aquifer, they would be highly susceptible to changes in hydrologic conditions, for instance oxygen pulses associated with seasonal snowmelt. Furthermore, our results also emphasize the limitations of relying solely on aqueous species measurements to inform reactivity in systems where fast redox cycling and/or sizeable particulate transport may limit the signature of reactivity in the dissolved phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Models to Predict Inhibition of the Bile Salt Export Pump

Cholestatic liver injury is frequently associated with drug inhibition of bile salt transporters, such as the bile salt export pump (BSEP). Reliable in silico models to predict BSEP inhibition directly from chemical structures would significantly reduce costs during drug discovery and could help avoid injury to patients. We report our development of classification and regression models for BSEP inhibition with substantially improved performance over previously published models. We assessed the performance effects of different methods of chemical featurization, data set partitioning, and class labeling and identified the methods producing models that generalized best to novel chemical entities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

High Frequency Monitoring and Nitrate Sourcing Reveals Baseflow and Stormflow Controls on Total Dissolved Nitrogen and Carbon Export Along a Rural‐Urban Gradient

Abstract Efforts to reduce nitrogen and carbon loading from developed watersheds typically target specific flows or sources, but across gradients in development intensity there is no consensus on the contribution of different flows to total loading or sources of nitrogen export. This information is vital to optimize management strategies leveraging source reductions, stormwater controls, and restorations. We investigate how solute loading and sources vary across flows and land‐use using high frequency monitoring and stable nitrate isotope analysis from five catchments with different sanitary infrastructure, along a gradient in development intensity. High frequency monitoring allowed estimation of annual loading and attribution to storm versus baseflows. Nitrate loads were 16 kg/km 2 /yr. from the forested catchment and ranged from 68 to 119 kg/km 2 /yr., across developed catchments, highest for the septic served site. Across developed catchments, baseflow contributions ranged from 40% of N loading to 75% from the septic served catchment, and the contribution from high stormflows increased with development intensity. Stormflows mobilized and mixed many surface and subsurface nitrate sources while baseflow nitrate was dominated by fewer sources which varied by catchment (soil, wastewater, or fertilizer). To help inform future sampling designs, we demonstrate that grab sampling and targeted storm sampling would likely fail to accurately predict annual loadings within the study period. The dominant baseflow loads and subsurface stormflows are not treated by surface water management practices primarily targeted to surface stormflows. Using a balance of green and gray infrastructure and stream/riparian restoration may target specific flow paths and improve management.

Delesantro, Joseph M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

When Do Riverine Systems “Feel the Burn”? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export

Wildfires impact terrestrial landscapes and downstream river corridors through shifts in vegetation and soil properties leading to downstream hydrologic and water quality impacts. The magnitude of these impacts depend on a complex and interconnected set of wildfire, landscape, and aquatic processes. Here, we isolate the impact of post-fire hydrologic changes on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We explore how responses differ across burn severity and area burned in two test basins: a humid forested basin and a semi-arid mixed land use basin. We ran 1830 wildfire simulations testing impacts of area burned, burn severity, and post-fire precipitation on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon. Our work suggests that area burned thresholds differ with burn severity and analyte. Additionally, post-fire transport of dissolved organic carbon was sensitive to both area burned and severity, while nitrate was primarily sensitive to area burned. Despite a muted (−9.5 to 5.7 mm yr −1 change) hydrologic response in the semi-arid basin, the model predicted large (7%–288% increase) shifts in dissolved organic carbon, suggesting that post-fire shifts in flow pathways and soil properties are key in its response. The limited shifts in nitrate responses in the simulations highlight that terrestrial post-fire transformations, rather than hydrologic changes, may control the increases in stream nitrate often observed post-fire. As wildfire regimes are shifting, improving understanding of post-fire nutrient export responses is critical to protect freshwater resources and aquatic ecosystems.

Wampler, Katherine A. [Pacific Northwest National ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recognition of nuclear export signals by CRM1 carrying the oncogenic E571K mutation

The E571K mutation of CRM1 is highly prevalent in some cancers, but its mechanism of tumorigenesis is unclear. Glu571 of CRM1 is located in its nuclear export signal (NES)-binding groove, suggesting that binding of select NESs may be altered. We generated HEK 293 cells with either monoallelic CRM1WT/E571K or biallelic CRM1E571K/E571K using CRISPR/Cas9. We also combined analysis of binding affinities and structures of 27 diverse NESs for wild-type and E571K CRM1 with structure-based bioinformatics. While most NESs bind the two CRM1 similarly, NESs from Mek1, eIF4E-transporter, and RPS2 showed >10-fold affinity differences. These NESs have multiple charged side chains binding close to CRM1 position 571, but this feature alone was not sufficient to predict different binding to CRM1(E571K). Consistent with eIF4E-transporter NES binding weaker to CRM1(E571K), eIF4E-transporter was mislocalized in tumor cells carrying CRM1(E571K). This serves as proof of concept that understanding how CRM1(E571K) affects NES binding provides a platform for identifying cargoes that are mislocalized in cancer upon CRM1 mutation. Finally, we showed that large affinity changes seen with some NES peptides (of Mek1 and RPS2) do not always translate to the full-length cargoes, suggesting limitations with current NES prediction methods. Therefore, comprehensive studies like ours are imperative to identify CRM1 cargoes with real pathogenic potential.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Verifying Deep Reductions in the Nuclear Arsenals: Development and Demonstration of a Motion-detection Subsystem for a “Buddy Tag” Using Non-export Controlled Accelerometers

Future nuclear arms-control agreements may place numerical limits on items that are difficult to monitor with national technical means, even when complemented with onsite inspections. Such items could include small objects and mobile assets, such as non-deployed nuclear warheads and mobile missile launchers. Typically, this verification task can be addressed with unique identifiers, but standard tagging techniques may be unacceptable in this case due to host concerns about safety and intrusiveness. First proposed in the late 1980s and partially developed by Sandia National Laboratories in the early 1990s, the “Proximity Tag” or “Buddy Tag” concept seeks to overcome these concerns by separating the tag from the treaty accountable item itself. A buddy tag has two key elements: a tamper-indicating enclosure and a motion-detection system designed to detect illicit movements in a stand-down period. As part of this project, we have built a buddy-tag prototype for demonstration and evaluation purposes. This paper reviews the design choices and functionalities of the tag’s motion-detection subsystem.We pursue a modular approach for the tag’s hardware, built around an Arduino-class microcontroller and a non-export-controlled low-noise accelerometer, and use open-source algorithms for the motion-detection software. Finally, we discuss the results of an extensive experimental campaign involving both indoor and outdoor measurements assessing the performance of the tag under real-world environmental conditions.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool; a tool to screen options for reducing nutrient loads while minimizing cost

Abstract Excess loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to river networks causes environmental harm, but reducing loads from large river basins is difficult and expensive. We developed a new tool, the River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool (RBEROST) to identify the least‐cost combinations of management practices that will reduce nutrient loading to target levels in downstream and mid‐network waterbodies. We demonstrate the utility of the tool in a case study in the Upper Connecticut River Basin in New England, USA. The total project cost of optimized lowest‐cost plans ranged from $18.0 million to $41.0 million per year over 15 years depending on user specifications. Plans include both point source and non‐point source management practices, and most costs are associated with urban stormwater practices. Adding a 2% margin of safety to loading targets improved the estimated probability of success from 37.5% to 99%. The large spatial scale of RBEROST, and the consideration of both point and non‐point source contributions of nutrients, make it well suited as an initial screening tool in watershed planning.

Chamberlin, Catherine↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative Proteome Profiling Reveals Cellobiose-Dependent Protein Processing and Export Pathways for the Lignocellulolytic Response in Neurospora crassa

Filamentous fungi are intensively used for producing industrial enzymes, including lignocellulases. Employing insoluble cellulose to induce the production of lignocellulases causes some drawbacks, e.g., a complex fermentation operation, which can be overcome by using soluble inducers such as cellobiose. Here, a triple β-glucosidase mutant of Neurospora crassa, which prevents rapid turnover of cellobiose and thus allows the disaccharide to induce lignocellulases, was applied to profile the proteome responses to cellobiose and cellulose (Avicel). Our results revealed a shared proteomic response to cellobiose and Avicel, whose elements included lignocellulases and cellulolytic product transporters. While the cellulolytic proteins showed a correlated increase in protein and mRNA levels, only a moderate correlation was observed on a proteomic scale between protein and mRNA levels (R 2 = 0.31). Ribosome biogenesis and rRNA processing were significantly overrepresented in the protein set with increased protein but unchanged mRNA abundances in response to Avicel. Ribosome biogenesis, as well as protein processing and protein export, was also enriched in the protein set that showed increased abundance in response to cellobiose. NCU05895, a homolog of yeast CWH43, is potentially involved in transferring a glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI) anchor to nascent proteins. This protein showed increased abundance but no significant change in mRNA levels. Disruption of CWH43 resulted in a significant decrease in cellulase activities and secreted protein levels in cultures grown on Avicel, suggesting a positive regulatory role for CWH43 in cellulase production. The findings should have an impact on a systems engineering approach for strain improvement for the production of lignocellulases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bacteria export alarmone synthetases that produce (p)ppApp and (p)ppGpp

Guanosine penta- and tetraphosphate [(p)ppGpp] and their adenosine analogs [(p)ppApp] are bacterial second messengers known as alarmones. Members of the RelA-SpoT homolog (RSH) family synthesize (p)ppGpp to mediate the stringent response during nutrient starvation, whereas (p)ppApp synthetases have been identified as bactericidal toxins in diverse contexts including type VI secretion systems, toxin-antitoxin modules, and phages. Although alarmone synthesis has traditionally been viewed as a cytoplasmic process, early studies in Streptomyces suggested the existence of secreted alarmone synthetases. Here, we identify SaEAS, an exported alarmone synthetase (EAS) from Streptomyces albidoflavus, as the long-mysterious source of extracellular alarmone synthetase activity in Streptomyces. SaEAS produces both (p)ppGpp and (p)ppApp at rates exceeding 100,000 molecules per minute and has kinetic properties adapted to low substrate environments. A broader bioinformatic survey reveals ~600 EASs linked to a range of specialized bacterial secretion systems. Characterization of two additional EASs, VpEAS from Vibrio parahaemolyticus and AaEAS from Amycolatopsis azurea, shows that both produce (p)ppGpp exclusively and inhibit bacterial growth when localized to the cytoplasm. These findings challenge the longstanding view of (p)ppGpp as strictly pro-survival and unveil a diverse family of secreted RSH enzymes with potential roles in interbacterial antagonism and environmental signaling.

Ahmad, Shehryar↗

DOE OSTI2025

TILED-EXPORT

SF-25-094 A client for the Bluesky Tiled API that allows bulk export of files.

Wollfman, MarkF [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the impact of riparian hollows on river corridor nitrogen exports, Frontiers in Water: Dataset

This package contains all reactive transport simulation outputs used in "Modeling the impact of riparian hollows on river corridor nitrogen exports" (Rogers, D.B., et al., 2021). The simulation outputs reflect hydrological and biogeochemical behavior of a single, generalized riparian hollow located in the intra-meander region of a sub-alpine floodplain under transient hydrological conditions. The context for, purpose of, and conclusions drawn from this model are detailed in Rogers, D.B., et al., 2021.The .zip file contains simulation outputs for each of the five time periods analyzed (see metadata for specific dates), with each folder representing one continuous simulation period. Within each folder are the raw simulation outputs, which are comprised of hundreds of files. Files ending in ".vtk" are best visualized and analyzed using ParaView (https://www.paraview.org). All other files are best viewed or analyzed using R. For a detailed description of the meaning of each file, refer to the ".fls" file located in each folder.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” published in Water Resources Research (Wampler et al. 2025; preprint: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174438106.63564767/v1). This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a processed based model to explore the impacts of area burned and burn severity on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in two test basins: a semi-arid, mixed land use basin and a humid, primarily forested basin. We developed 1800 wildfire scenarios that we ran in each basin: 20 different burn extents (5 to 100% by 5%), 3 different burn severities (low, moderate, and high), and 30 different post-fire precipitation scenarios. We also ran an additional 30 scenarios associated with no wildfire for the 30 post-fire precipitation scenarios. For each scenario we were interested in the change in runoff ratio (streamflow) and average concentration and annual loads (nitrate and DOC) across the wildfire scenarios. This data package contains the data and scripts required to build SWAT models for the two test basins, create and run the wildfire scenarios, and generate the data summaries and figures used in the associated manuscript. This data package was originally published in March 2025. It was updated in January 2026 (v2; new and modified files) to include the final files after the manuscript went through reviews. See the change history section below for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗