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DOE OSTI2024

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope DR6 and DESI: structure formation over cosmic time with a measurement of the cross-correlation of CMB lensing and luminous red galaxies

We present a high-significance cross-correlation of CMB lensing maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) Data Release 6 (DR6) with luminous red galaxies (LRGs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Legacy Survey spectroscopically calibrated by DESI. We detect this cross-correlation at a significance of 38σ; combining our measurement with the Planck Public Release 4 (PR4) lensing map, we detect the cross-correlation at 50σ. Fitting this jointly with the galaxy auto-correlation power spectrum to break the galaxy bias degeneracy with σ 8 , we perform a tomographic analysis in four LRG redshift bins spanning 0.4 ≤ z ≤ 1.0 to constrain the amplitude of matter density fluctuations through the parameter combination S 8 × = σ 8 (Ω m / 0.3) 0.4 . Prior to unblinding, we confirm with extragalactic simulations that foreground biases are negligible and carry out a comprehensive suite of null and consistency tests. Using a hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) model that allows scales as small as k max = 0.6 h/ Mpc, we obtain a 3.3% constraint on S 8 × = σ 8 (Ω m / 0.3) 0.4 = 0.792 +0.024 -0.028 from ACT data, as well as constraints on S 8 × (z) that probe structure formation over cosmic time. Our result is consistent with the early-universe extrapolation from primary CMB anisotropies measured by Planck PR4 within 1.2σ. Jointly fitting ACT and Planck lensing cross-correlations we obtain a 2.7% constraint of S 8 × = 0.776 +0.019 -0.021 , which is consistent with the Planck early-universe extrapolation within 2.1σ, with the lowest redshift bin showing the largest difference in mean. The latter may motivate further CMB lensing tomography analyses at z < 0.6 to assess the impact of potential systematics or the consistency of the ΛCDM model over cosmic time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Empirical scaling of the L–H threshold power for metal wall tokamaks using a multi-device database

The empirical scaling for the H-mode power threshold in tokamaks has been revisited using a database with threshold data from machines with a metallic first wall as part of International Tokamak Physics Activity (ITPA) task TC-26. The database contains discharges from ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) (W), JET (Be/W) and Alcator C-Mod (Mo). This was motivated by reports that in like-for-like discharges the power threshold was reduced by approximately 30% after the change from carbon based to metallic first wall materials on AUG (Ryter et al 2013 Nucl. Fusion 53 113003) and JET (Maggi et al 2014 Nucl. Fusion 54 023007). The database contains L–H transition data for all hydrogen isotopes and mixtures, including T and DT from the recent JET campaigns. Compared to the ITPA 2008 scaling (Martin et al 2008 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 123 012033), the metal wall scaling has a smaller magnetic field exponent but a larger density exponent. We present an additional parameter to capture the strong dependence of the L–H power threshold (approx. factor 2) on the magnetic configuration in the divertor on JET. The scaling recovers the approximate inverse isotope mass scaling of the threshold power. Alternative scalings involving the plasma current and poloidal magnetic field are explored. Despite the reduction in threshold observed earlier, the scalings based on the metal wall database do not necessarily extrapolate to a lower threshold for ITER compared to the ITPA 2008 scaling, especially at high density. The divertor configuration effect induces the largest uncertainty in the extrapolation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving streamflow predictions across CONUS by integrating advanced machine learning models and diverse data

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial to understand climate impacts on water resources and develop effective adaption strategies. A global long short-term memory (LSTM) model, using data from multiple basins, can enhance streamflow prediction, yet acquiring detailed basin attributes remains a challenge. To overcome this, we introduce the Geo-vision transformer (ViT)-LSTM model, a novel approach that enriches LSTM predictions by integrating basin attributes derived from remote sensing with a ViT architecture. Applied to 531 basins across the Contiguous United States, our method demonstrated superior prediction accuracy in both temporal and spatiotemporal extrapolation scenarios. Geo-ViT-LSTM marks a significant advancement in land surface modeling, providing a more comprehensive and effective tool for better understanding the environment responses to climate change.

Tayal, Kshitij↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraining nuclear mass models using 𝑟-process observables with multiobjective optimization

Modeling nuclear masses, particularly for nuclei far from stability, remains a key objective in nuclear physics. One contemporary approach is machine learning (ML), which trains on experimental data, but can suffer large errors when extrapolating toward neutron-rich species. In nature, such masses shape observables for the rapid neutron capture process (𝑟 process), which in principle could inform ML models. Here, we introduce a multiobjective optimization approach using the Pareto front algorithm. We show that this technique, capable of identifying models that generate 𝑟-process abundances aligning with both solar and stellar data, is a promising method to select ML models with reliable extrapolation power.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Locating the QCD critical point through contours of constant entropy density

We propose a new method to investigate the existence and location of the conjectured high-temperature critical point of strongly interacting matter via contours of constant entropy density. By approximating these lines as a power series in the baryon chemical potential 𝜇 𝐵 , one can extrapolate them from first-principle results at zero net-baryon density, and use them to locate the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) critical point, including the associated first-order and spinodal lines. As a proof of principle, we employ currently available continuum-extrapolated lattice data from the Wuppertal-Budapest collaboration to find a critical point at a temperature and a baryon chemical potential of 𝑇 𝑐 = 114.3 ± 6.9 MeV and 𝜇 𝐵,𝑐 = 602.1 ± 62.1 MeV, respectively, at expansion order 𝒪⁡(𝜇$^{2}_{𝐵}$). We advocate for a more precise determination of the required expansion coefficients via lattice QCD simulations as a means of pinpointing the location of the critical endpoint in the phase diagram of strongly interacting matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Binding energy of the 𝑇 𝑏⁢𝑏 tetraquark from lattice QCD with relativistic and nonrelativistic heavy-quark actions

We present a new determination of the $b\bar{b}$𝑢⁢𝑑 (𝐽 𝑃 = 1 + , 𝐼 = 0) tetraquark binding energy using lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) with domain-wall light quarks and a nonperturbatively tuned three-parameter anisotropic-clover “relativistic” action for the 𝑏 quarks. We also perform a direct comparison with a reanalysis of data generated in prior work using a lattice-nonrelativistic QCD (NRQCD) action for the 𝑏 quarks and otherwise identical parameters. Using the new data with relativistic 𝑏 quarks from seven different ensembles with multiple lattice spacings and pion masses, we perform combined chiral and continuum extrapolations and obtain (𝑚 𝑇 𝑏⁢𝑏 −𝑚 𝐵 −𝑚 𝐵* ) RHQ =(−76 ±23) MeV. For the NRQCD data from five ensembles, we perform chiral-only extrapolations and obtain (𝑚 𝑇 𝑏⁢𝑏 −𝑚 𝐵 −𝑚 𝐵* ) NRQCD = (−74 ±17 ±10) MeV. The lower magnitude of the results obtained here, compared to the original analysis in [Phys. Rev. D 100, 014503 (2019)], is due to the use of the symmetric parts of the correlation matrices with local four-quark operators only.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-constructed scalable-circuits adaptive variational quantum eigensolver in the Schwinger model

Inspired by recent advancements in simulating periodic systems on quantum computers, we develop an approach to further advance the simulation of these systems, named (SC) 2 -ADAPT-VQE. Our approach extends the scalable-circuits ADAPT-VQE framework, which builds an ansatz from a pool of coordinate-invariant operators defined for arbitrarily large, though not arbitrarily small, volumes. Our method uses a classically tractable “surrogate constructed” method to remove irrelevant operators from the pool, reducing the minimum size for which the scalable circuits are defined. Bringing together the scalable circuits and the surrogate constructed approaches forms the core of the (SC) 2 methodology. Our approach allows for a wider set of classical computations on small volumes, which can be used for a more robust extrapolation protocol. While developed in the context of lattice models, the surrogate construction portion is applicable to a wide variety of problems where information about the relative importance of operators in the pool is available. As an example, we use it to compute the properties of the Schwinger model—quantum electrodynamics for a single, massive fermion in 1 +1 dimensions—and show that our method can be used to accurately extrapolate to the continuum limit.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid Initial-State Preparation for the Quantum Simulation of Strongly Correlated Molecules

Studies on quantum algorithms for ground-state energy estimation often assume perfect ground-state preparation; however, in reality the initial state will have imperfect overlap with the true ground state. Here, we address that problem in two ways: by faster preparation of matrix-product-state (MPS) approximations and by more efficient filtering of the prepared state to find the ground-state energy. We show how to achieve unitary synthesis with a Toffoli complexity about 7 × lower than that in prior work and use that to derive a more efficient MPS-preparation method. For filtering, we present two different approaches: sampling and binary search. For both, we use the theory of window functions to avoid large phase errors and minimize the complexity. We find that the binary-search approach provides better scaling with the overlap at the cost of a larger constant factor, such that it will be preferred for overlaps less than about 0.003 . Finally, we estimate the total resources to perform ground-state energy estimation of Fe - S cluster systems, including the Fe Mo cofactor by estimating the overlap of different MPS initial states with potential ground states of the Fe Mo cofactor using an extrapolation procedure. With a modest MPS bond dimension of 4000 , our procedure produces an estimate of approximately 0.9 overlap squared with a candidate ground state of the Fe Mo cofactor, producing a total resource estimate of 7.3 × 10 10 Toffoli gates; neglecting the search over candidates and assuming the accuracy of the extrapolation, this validates prior estimates that have used perfect ground-state overlap. This presents an example of a practical path to prepare states of high overlap in a challenging-to-compute chemical system. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Berry, Dominic W. (ORCID:0000000334461449)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Window Observables for Benchmarking Parton Distribution Functions

Global analysis of collider and fixed-target experimental data and calculations from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) are used to gain complementary information on the structure of hadrons. We propose novel “window observables” that allow for higher precision cross-validation between the different approaches, a critical step for studies that wish to combine the datasets. Global analyses are limited by the kinematic regions accessible to experiment, particularly in a range of Bjorken-𝑥, and lattice QCD calculations also have limitations requiring extrapolations to obtain the parton distributions. We provide two different window observables that can be defined within a region of 𝑥 where extrapolations and interpolations in global analyses remain reliable and where lattice QCD results retain sensitivity and precision.

lattice QCD↗

DOE OSTI2026

Moments of parton distribution functions of the pion from lattice QCD using gradient flow

We present a nonperturbative determination of the pion valence parton distribution function (PDF) moment ratios ⟨𝑥 𝑛−1 ⟩/⟨𝑥⟩ up to 𝑛 = 6, using the gradient flow in lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD). As a testing ground, we employ SU(3) isosymmetric gauge configurations generated by the OpenLat initiative with a pseudoscalar mass of 𝑚 𝜋 ≃ 411 MeV. Our analysis uses four lattice spacings and a nonperturbatively improved action, enabling full control over the continuum extrapolation, and the limit of vanishing flow time, 𝑡 →0. The flowed ratios exhibit O(𝑎 2 ) scaling across the ensembles, and the continuum-extrapolated results, matched to the $\overline{MS}$ scheme at 𝜇 = 2 GeV using next-to-next-to-leading order matching coefficients, show only mild residual flow-time dependence. The resulting ratios, computed with a relatively small number of configurations, are consistent with phenomenological expectations for the pion’s valence distribution, with statistical uncertainties that are competitive with modern global fits. These findings demonstrate that the gradient flow provides an efficient and systematically improvable method to access partonic quantities from first principles. Future extensions of this work will target lighter pion masses toward the physical point, and applications to nucleon structure such as the proton PDFs and the gluon and sea-quark distributions.

lattice QCD↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model Form Error Correction for a Black-Box Thermal Battery Heat Transfer Simulation

Thermal batteries are crucial for supplying power to high-consequence engineering applications such as rockets. Computational simulations have been developed to predict thermal battery behavior, but these simulations often suffer from modeling errors, including model form uncertainty. Addressing this uncertainty can be achieved by quantifying either the model discrepancy in the output or the model form error (MFE) in the governing equation. MFE is particularly valuable as it can be better extrapolated beyond observed outputs, which is essential for predictions involving changes in external system loading, system configuration and geometry, or output quantities. This paper employs a state estimation approach to estimate MFE using experimental data and then utilizes machine learning (ML) to model its relationship with state variables. A nonintrusive technique is used to estimate MFE in a black-box thermal battery heat transfer simulation. The trained machine learning model for MFE is then applied to correct simulation predictions under extrapolated initial conditions and battery configurations. In conclusion, the methodology's performance is evaluated using additional experimental data, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving prediction accuracy.

Batteries↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graphene SHDMC Data

The data used to produce all of the figures and tables in the manuscript titled "Highly Accurate Many-Body Theory Reaches 2D Materials" can be found here. This data set includes: -SHDMC results for graphene -selected CI with and without re-normalized second-order perturbation (rPT2) theory corrections for graphene -data demonstrating that SHDMC displays an exponential rate of convergence -data used for sCI + rPT2 complete basis set extrapolation -data used to extrapolate SHDMC energies to the infinite basis limit -data used to demonstrate compactness of SHDMC wavefunction

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Two-stage formation-energy correction (NbZr, TaZr, VZr)

This bundle contains the scripts, the raw and corrected per-structure data, and the manuscript plots for the NbZr / TaZr / VZr BCC binary formation energies and the associated RMSDs. Why a two-stage correction is necessary: The "raw" formation energy of every relaxed VASP configuration is computed in the usual way, FE_raw(c) = E_alloy(c) - sum_i x_i * E_pure_i , where E_pure_i are the per-atom total energies of the pure-element reference structures (Nb, Ta, V, Zr in the same BCC supercell, with identical INCAR / KPOINTS / PAW choices). With perfectly consistent reference runs the raw FE should vanish at the two pure-element endpoints (x = 0 and x = 1) by construction. In practice this does not hold for two reasons that are present in our dataset: 1. Reference-energy inconsistency (composition-dependent bias). Even with identical input parameters, the pure-element runs (stored in `corrected_DFT_pure_element_runs/`) differ slightly from the values that would be implied by the alloy runs at near-pure compositions (a few meV/atom). This bias is approximately linear in concentration, because the residual error in E_pure_Nb (or E_pure_Ta / E_pure_V) propagates into FE_raw(c) as (1 - x) * dE_pure_1, and the corresponding error in E_pure_Zr propagates as x * dE_pure_2. Left uncorrected, this produces a non-physical "tilt" of FE_raw(x) and shifts the entire FE-vs-x cloud away from zero at the endpoints. 2. Endpoint anchoring against the audited true endpoints. The strict endpoint values (FE_x0_meVatom, FE_x1_meVatom in `corrected_fe_strict_endpoints_20260518/strict_endpoint_check_20260518.csv`) were re-derived from an independent cross-check of the pure-element runs. After stage 1 removes the linear bias, the near-pure compositions in the alloy dataset still extrapolate to values that differ slightly from these audited endpoints — because stage 1 is fit from a few near-end alloy bins, not from the audited pure-element references themselves. The README.txt file discusses how these issues are addressed by the two-stage correction, and describes folder layout, pipeline summary, and how to re-run.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learning genetic perturbation effects with variational causal inference

Advances in sequencing technologies have enhanced the understanding of gene regulation in cells. In particular, Perturb-seq has enabled high-resolution profiling of the transcriptomic response to genetic perturbations at the single-cell level. This understanding has implications in functional genomics and potentially for identifying therapeutic targets. Various computational models have been developed to predict perturbational effects. While deep learning models excel at interpolating observed perturbational data, they tend to overfit in the lack of enough data and may not generalize well to unseen perturbations. In contrast, mechanistic models, such as linear causal models based on gene regulatory networks, hold greater potential for extrapolation, as they encapsulate regulatory information that can predict responses to unseen perturbations. However, their application has been limited to small studies due to overly simplistic assumptions, making them less effective in handling noisy, large-scale single-cell data. We propose a hybrid approach that combines a mechanistic causal model with variational deep learning, termed Single Cell Causal Variational Autoencoder (SCCVAE). The mechanistic model employs a learned regulatory network to represent perturbational changes as shift interventions that propagate through the learned network. SCCVAE integrates this mechanistic causal model into a variational autoencoder, generating rich, comprehensive transcriptomic responses. Our results indicate that SCCVAE exhibits superior performance over current state-of-the-art baselines for extrapolating to predict unseen perturbational responses. Additionally, for the observed perturbations, the latent space learned by SCCVAE allows for the identification of functional perturbation modules and simulation of single-gene knockdown experiments of varying penetrance, presenting a robust tool for interpreting and interpolating perturbational responses at the single-cell level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Status of permanent magnet radiation resiliency studies at CEBAF

An ongoing investigation for the future of Jefferson Lab’s Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) lies in upgrading its maximum nominal energy using Fixed-Field Alternating-gradient (FFA) technology for its recirculating arcs, using permanent magnets for the FFA arcs. A common concern among the community is the degradation of these permanent magnets during operation due to the radiation environment in which they will be present. This work, funded by a Laboratory Directed R&D grant, aims to measure the permanent magnet degradation in the CEBAF tunnel enclosure, and extrapolate to the energies expected from the upgrade. We present the latest results of this study, as well as plans moving forward.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Maximized Information Gain of Next Generation Pulsed Power Using Optimized Design of Z-Machine Experiments

This project develops a Bayesian optimization approach to extracting insights from Z Machine experimental data to determine if and how these insights can be used to extrapolate to a larger facility. The primary goal is to address the scientific challenge of informing how confidently experimental conditions can be predicted on a next generation facility, the design of which requires the reliable extrapolation of current high energy density technologies to regimes yet unobserved, except by costly high-fidelity computational models. Maximizing the use of presently available data and understanding how it informs future endeavors is critically important to enable transformative pulsed power and the science of extreme conditions. We explore a Bayesian optimization approach to experimental design which combines information theory, experimental data, and computational modeling to explore how information gain can be maximized.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

DIF3D-VARIANT 12.0: Updates and New Features

The DIF3D code has been a workhorse of fast reactor analysis work at Argonne National Laboratory for over 40 years. In 1995, a transport option called VARIANT was added to DIF3D to improve the flux solutions for fast reactor problems which we term DIF3D-VARIANT today. DIF3D-VARIANT performs nodal neutron transport calculations using P N or SP N theory in Cartesian and hexagonal two- and three-dimensional geometries. The limited computing capabilities of the time restricted DIF3D-VARIANT to use at most a 6 th order spatial approximation combined with a P3 flux approximation and P1 scattering kernel for a 33 group structure on most studied reactor problems. Computer capabilities have increased steadily since 1995 and today much larger space-angle-energy approximations are possible. This manuscript serves as an update to the theory section of the original DIF3D-VARIANT manual and details more than twenty years of changes made to DIF3D to make version 12 which was released on November 1 st , 2024. The primary focus of the initial work was to extend the space-angle approximations available in DIF3D-VARIANT such that the error due to transport approximations could be better understood. This work was started and completed in 2002 and marked the official version 10. Unfortunately, those higher order approximations could not be used at that time due to the memory constraints of the BPOINTER part of DIF3D (limited to 2 GB). In version 11, completed in 2012, BPOINTER was circumvented in DIF3D-VARIANT for the largest arrays by introducing a Fortran 90 module called LMA (Large Memory Array). This seamlessly replaces all of the functionality of the BPOINTER concept, but it allows 64 bit addressing for every array such that they can be larger than 2 GB. It is now common for DIF3D-VARIANT jobs to consume 50 GB of memory on modern workstations when using high order space-angle approximations and a large number of groups. Many improvements were made to version 11 from 2012 to 2022 when work to create version 12 started. For version 12, several parts of DIF3D were updated to improve performance and thread parallelism was introduced to further reduce the runtime. Numerous minor bugs were discovered in DIF3D-VARIANT as part of the process of creating the perturbation and sensitivity code PERSENT. All of these algorithmic problems were identified in the transition from version 10 to version 11 which prevented DIF3D-VARIANT from running efficiently and reliably. Firstly, the coarse mesh rebalance scheme would routinely diverge and a study detailed in this report demonstrates how it was also typically not effective. This is not a failure of the coarse mesh rebalance methodology, but a failure of its implementation in DIF3D-VARIANT for hexagonal geometries. The fission source extrapolation algorithm was also found to be unreliable on larger group structure problems, leading to divergence in some cases and a negligible improvement in performance overall. Finally, the “Omega” acceleration applied to the partial current solver routine of DIF3D-VARIANT was found to cause DIF3D-VARIANT to converge to the wrong answer. To resolve these issues, both the coarse mesh rebalance and fission source extrapolation were permanently disabled in version 11. The Tchebychev acceleration was put in as a temporary reliable alternative but it is generally inferior to coarse mesh rebalance or coarse mesh finite difference. For the Omega acceleration, the factor was restricted to guarantee that it would not cause follow-on errors in PERSENT. Due to limited funding to support maintenance and development of DIF3D in the last 10 years, no effort was spent since to resolve the outer iteration acceleration. Except for the threading work, all of the changes discussed in this manuscript refer to changes made between version 10 and version 11. Performance comparisons are done to demonstrate the improvements from version 9 to version 12. As will be demonstrated, the updated versi

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗