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DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems, e.g., emergency asset management. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000-bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. We perform statistical analysis of damages and discuss topological effects on the example synthetic grid. Also, we include a cursory evaluation of impacts using simplified operational models. Finally, we discuss how our method can be extended to use even higher-fidelity meteorological data sets and suggest directions for future work.

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

DOE OSTI2021

Islands in de Sitter space

We consider black holes in 2d de Sitter JT gravity coupled to a CFT, and entangled with matter in a disjoint non-gravitating universe. Tracing out the entangling matter leaves the CFT in a density matrix whose stress tensor backreacts on the de Sitter geometry, lengthening the wormhole behind the black hole horizon. Naively, the entropy of the entangling matter increases without bound as the strength of the entanglement increases, but the monogamy property predicts that this growth must level off. We compute the entropy via the replica trick, including wormholes between the replica copies of the de Sitter geometry, and find a competition between conventional field theory entanglement entropy and the surface area of extremal “islands” in the de Sitter geometry. The black hole and cosmological horizons both play a role in generating such islands in the backreacted geometry, and have the effect of stabilizing the entropy growth as required by monogamy. We first show this in a scenario in which the de Sitter spatial section has been decompactified to an interval. Then we consider the compact geometry, and argue for a novel interpretation of the island formula in the context of closed universes that recovers the Page curve. Finally, we comment on the application of our construction to the cosmological horizon in empty de Sitter space.

2D gravity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of A High-Resolution Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Studies

High-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for characterizing the variability of solar energy resources and for informing strategies that ensure grid reliability and resilience in grid systems with high levels of solar energy integration. We present the development of a new 4-km, hourly Earth system dataset for the contiguous United States (CONUS), using a statistical downscaling approach that integrates the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) with regional Earth system model projections. The new high-resolution Earth system dataset includes key variables - GHI, DNI, DHI, surface air temperature, and wind speed - under two future scenarios. Preliminary results show a reasonable agreement with NSRDB observations, with nBias less than 1% for GHI across CONUS. The dataset is expected to support in-depth analyses of extreme weather impacts and provide input to resource adequacy for future energy systems with diverse generation sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with a manuscript analyzing ELM-FATES parameter sensitivity under pre-fire and postfire scenarios using machine learning

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Fire Severity-Dependent Shifts in Vegetation Parameter Sensitivity: A Pre- and Post-Fire Analysis Using ELM-FATES and Explainable AI” submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (Zahura et al. 2026). The study examines vegetation physiological parameters controlling pre-fire and post-fire vegetation dynamics. To support this analysis, 73 vegetation parameters in Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (Fisher et al., 2018) , which is coupled with E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) land model (ELM, ELM-FATES), were perturbed using a Sobol sequence to generate 1,024 ensemble members for two plant functional types: needleleaf evergreen extratropical trees (NEET) and C3 grass. Simulations were conducted for the pre-fire period (2016) and post-fire period (2018–2023). Burn severity was represented by modifying the Nesterov index in FATES to 75,000, 150,000, and 300,000 for low, moderate, and high severity, respectively. A no-fire scenario was also included. Simulations were performed for 16 grid cells in the American River Watershed across different burn severities and plant functional types. XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models were trained using the parameter ensembles and ELM-FATES-simulated outputs, including leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP), aboveground biomass, vegetation evaporation, transpiration, and soil evaporation. Models were trained separately for each year and burn severity, followed by SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis to identify changes in dominant parameters after fire disturbance. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. The data package contains the ELM-FATES simulation data. The scripts and data related to the analysis will be added later. The inputs and outputs from ELM-FATES are inside the “FATES” folder. “FATES_domain_surface” contains the domain and surface netcdfs that were used to run ELM-FATES in the study area. “FATES_parameters” contains the 1024 ensembles that were generated using Sobol sequence. “FATES_outputs” folder contains ELM-FATES simulated variables. All files are .csv and .nc (NetCDF).

Aboveground biomass↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards critical and supercritical electromagnetic fields

Abstract The availability of ever stronger, laser-generated electromagnetic fields underpins continuing progress in the study and application of nonlinear phenomena in basic physical systems, ranging from molecules and atoms to relativistic plasmas and quantum electrodynamics. This raises the question: how far will we be able to go with future lasers? One exciting prospect is the attainment of field strengths approaching the Schwinger critical field ${E}_{\mathrm{cr}}$ in the laboratory frame, such that the field invariant ${E}^2-{c}^2{B}^2>{E}_{\mathrm{cr}}^2$ is reached. The feasibility of doing so has been questioned, on the basis that cascade generation of dense electron–positron plasma would inevitably lead to absorption or screening of the incident light. Here we discuss the potential for future lasers to overcome such obstacles, by combining the concept of multiple colliding laser pulses with that of frequency upshifting via a tailored laser–plasma interaction. This compresses the electromagnetic field energy into a region of nanometre size and attosecond duration, which increases the field magnitude at fixed power but also suppresses pair cascades. Our results indicate that laser facilities with peak power of tens of PW could be capable of reaching ${E}_{\mathrm{cr}}$ . Such a scenario opens up prospects for the experimental investigation of phenomena previously considered to occur only in the most extreme environments in the universe.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Efficient generation and extreme compression of multidimensional solitary states in molecular gas-filled hollow-core fibers driven by picosecond Yb lasers

We present an in-depth study on the impact of spatiotemporal Raman enhancement in molecular gas-filled hollow-core fibers (HCFs), demonstrating the efficient generation and post-compression of multidimensional solitary states (MDSS). Through different experimental scenarios—employing large-core HCFs filled with molecular gases (N 2 and N 2 O) and driven by high energy, sub-picosecond and picosecond Fourier transform-limited ytterbium laser pulses—this work leverages multimode propagation and enhanced spatiotemporal interactions to achieve significant spectral broadening and asymmetric redshift, contrasting sharply with self-phase modulation. Our findings reveal that, beyond the regime of maximum nonadiabatic molecular alignment, spatiotemporal nonlinear enhancement primarily governs spectral broadening for input pulse durations up to 1 ps. The process shows limited sensitivity to input pulse duration and the two investigated molecular gases (N 2 and N 2 O), with only subtle differences in broadening arising from their distinct Raman spectroscopic properties. Furthermore, post-compression of MDSS was achieved in various cases. Notably, using 7 mJ, 1 ps laser pulses, we generated 22 fs pulses with a 47% energy conversion efficiency of the input pulse energy. These results position MDSS as a powerful platform for generating high-energy, ultrashort pulses with tunable wavelengths, offering a robust solution for applications such as high harmonic generation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Trust Your Gut: Comparing Human and Machine Inference from Noisy Visualizations

People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6

human-machine collaboration↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Stochastic pre-event preparation for enhancing resilience of distribution systems

Extreme weather events are the common causes for power supply interruptions and power outages in electrical distribution systems. Improving the distribution system and enhancing its resilience is becoming crucial due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events. Preparation and allocation of multiple flexible resources, such as mobile resources, fuel resources, and labor resources before extreme weather events can mitigate the effects of extreme weather events and enhance the resilience of power distribution systems. Here, in this paper, a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) is proposed to optimize the preparation and resource allocation process for upcoming extreme weather events, which leads to faster and more efficient post-event restoration. The objective of the proposed two-stage SMILP is to maximize the served load and minimize the operating cost of flexible resources. The first stage in the optimization problem selects the amounts and locations of different resources. The second stage considers the operational constraints of the distribution system and repair crew scheduling constraints. The proposed stochastic pre-event preparation model is solved by a scenario decomposition method, Progressive Hedging (PH), to ease the computational complexity introduced by a large number of scenarios. Furthermore, to show the impact of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation on system resilience, three types of PV systems are considered during a power outage and the resilience improvements with different PV penetration levels are compared. Numerical results from simulations on a large-scale (more than 10,000 nodes) distribution feeder have been used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of the spatial statistics of random and defined-sequence photoresist films

The resolution-line edge roughness-sensitivity tradeoff has motivated the exploration of potential improvements using defined sequence polymers and polymer-bound photoacid generators and quenchers. We characterize the internal structures of positive tone photoresist polymer films formed from defined sequence polymers and compare them with random copolymers of the same composition. We model their imaging to connect initially to developable film structures. We use a polymer packing algorithm to simulate films of diverse compositions and locations of photoacid generators and quenchers, using the composition of an ESCAP photoresist. We use a simple extreme ultraviolet exposure-deprotection algorithm to model developable image formation within them. In all cases, the spatial distribution of chemical moieties in the film for defined sequence polymers is nearly indistinguishable from random copolymers. We evaluate several exposure-deprotection scenarios and find that a defined sequence copolymer has a distinctive developable image under certain circumstances. The use of defined sequence polymers within a photoresist layer does not automatically result in improved imaging; however, they do have some characteristics different from random polymers of the same composition. Further study of these characteristics may provide a route to improved control over the nanoscale imaging process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Energy Resource-Cognizant Upgrade Paths to the Traditional Restoration Strategy of Utilities for Improved Load Restoration

Climate change has resulted in increasingly impactful and more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events. This trend poses a significant challenge for distribution utilities and system operators to ensure that there is uninterrupted power supply to critical loads in their networks under fault scenarios; however, currently, utilities deploying the automated fault location, isolation and restoration (FLISR) function in their advanced distribution management system (ADMS) do not take into account the available generation and load-modification capabilities of distributed energy resources present in the disconnected network due to an upstream isolated fault. This results in the network reconfiguration and restoration to result in sub-optimal load restoration. Therefore, this paper presents two approaches that can upgrade the existing FLISR capabilities of distribution utilities to significantly increase the restoration of critical loads. The performance of the proposed approaches is evaluated on a numerical model of a real distribution feeder in Georgia, USA.

DER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Distributed Energy Resource-Cognizant Upgrade Paths to the Traditional Restoration Strategy of Utilities for Improved Load Restoration: Preprint

DER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California's Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change

Abstract California faces cycles of drought and flooding that are projected to intensify, but these extremes may impact water users across the state differently due to the region's natural hydroclimate variability and complex institutional framework governing water deliveries. To assess these risks, this study introduces a novel exploratory modeling framework informed by paleo and climate‐change based scenarios to better understand how impacts propagate through the Central Valley's complex water system. A stochastic weather generator, conditioned on tree‐ring data, produces a large ensemble of daily weather sequences conditioned on drought and flood conditions under the Late Renaissance Megadrought period (1550–1580 CE). Regional climate changes are applied to this weather data and drive hydrologic projections for the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins. The resulting streamflow ensembles are used in an exploratory stress test using the California Food‐Energy‐Water System model, a highly resolved, daily model of water storage and conveyance throughout California's Central Valley. Results show that megadrought conditions lead to unprecedented reductions in inflows and storage at major California reservoirs. Both junior and senior water rights holders experience multi‐year periods of curtailed water deliveries and complete drawdowns of groundwater assets. When megadrought dynamics are combined with climate change, risks for unprecedented depletion of reservoir storage and sustained curtailment of water deliveries across multiple years increase. Asymmetries in risk emerge depending on water source, rights, and access to groundwater banks.

Gupta, Rohini S. [School of Civil and Environmenta↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S

Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗

DOE OSTI2025

Plasma Flow Reactor Investigation into Nucleation of Uranium Oxide on Silica Substrates to Better Understand Fallout Formation

Understanding particulate formation in nuclear debris is critical for predicting fallout transport after a nuclear event. Improved characterization of fallout formation and transport could lead to better guidance for emergency response in a post-detonation scenario. By analyzing how U-oxides nucleate onto different forms of SiO 2 (crystalline and amorphous), we can gain insight into how entrained environmental materials may incorporate into fallout. In this experiment a Plasma Flow Reactor (PFR), was used to replicate the high temperature and extreme flow conditions in a nuclear fireball. Uranyl nitrate was injected into the plasma, and PFR-generated Uranium oxides were allowed to condense onto amorphous (nanoparticles of varying sizes) or crystalline (quartz) SiO 2 substrates. SiO 2 substrates were characterized before and after U-oxide deposition using Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) based techniques (i.e. EDS) in order to characterize how U-oxides may nucleate onto these substrates. After a collection time of 4 minutes at an RF coil distance of 25cm, both the amorphous SiO 2 nanoparticles and the crystalline structures demonstrated dendritic nucleation of U-oxide species as identified by SEM/EDS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗