SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “extreme values”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2004

On the Positive Bias of Peak Horizontal Velocity from an Idealized Doppler Profiler

In the presence of 3-D turbulence, peak horizontal velocity estimates from an idealized Doppler profiler are found to be positively biased due to an incomplete specification of the vertical velocity field. The magnitude of the bias was estimated by assuming that the vertical and horizontal velocities can be separated into average and perturbation values and that the vertical and horizontal velocity perturbations are normally distributed. Under these assumptions, properties of the Type-I Extreme Value Distribution for maxima, known as the Gumbel distribution, can be used to obtain an analytical solution of the bias. The bias depends on geometric properties of the profiler configuration, the variance in the horizontal velocity, and the unresolved variance in the vertical velocity. When these variances are normalized by the average horizontal velocity, the bias can be mapped as a simple function of the normalized variances.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Heat flow and heat generation in greenstone belts

Heat flow has been measured in Precambrian shields in both greenstone belts and crystalline terrains. Values are generally low, reflecting the great age and tectonic stability of the shields; they range typically between 30 and 50 mW/sq m, although extreme values of 18 and 79 mW/sq m have been reported. For large areas of the Earth's surface that are assumed to have been subjected to a common thermotectonic event, plots of heat flow against heat generation appear to be linear, although there may be considerable scatter in the data. The relationship is expressed as: Q = Q sub o + D A sub o in which Q is the observed heat flow, A sub o is the measured heat generation at the surface, Q sub o is the reduced heat flow from the lower crust and mantle, and D, which has the dimension of length, represents a scale depth for the distribution of radiogenic elements. Most authors have not used data from greenstone belts in attempting to define the relationship within shields, considering them unrepresentative and preferring to use data from relatively homogeneous crystalline rocks. A discussion follows.

Drury, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Analysis of extreme wind shear

New methods utilizing extreme value statistical theory are applied in the analysis of the largest wind component shear in a wind profile as a function of shear layer thickness and season. Seasonal variability of extreme shear decreases as the shear layer thickness decreases. Wind profile measurement system smoothing and its effect upon extreme wind shear statistics is simulated by application of digital low-pass filters to Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, Stanley I.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Lower mantle thermal structure deduced from seismic tomography, mineral physics and numerical modelling

The long-wavelength thermal anomalies in the lower mantle have been mapped out using several seismic tomographic models in conjunction with thermodynamic parameters derived from high-pressure mineral physics experiments. These parameters are the depth variations of thermal expansivity and of the proportionality factor between changes in density and seismic velocity. The giant plume-like structures in the lower mantle under the Pacific Ocean and Africa have outer fringes with thermal anomalies around 300-400 K, but very high temperatures are found in the center of the plumes near the base of the core-mantle boundary. These extreme values can exceed +1500 K and may reflect large hot thermal anomalies in the lower mantle, which are supported by recent measurements of high melting temperatures of perovskite and iron. Extremely cold anomalies, around -1500 K, are found for anomalies in the deep mantle around the Pacific rim and under South America. Numerical simulations show that large negative thermal anomalies in the mid-lower mantle have modest magnitudes of around -500 K. correlation pattern exists between the present-day locations of cold masses in the lower mantle and the sites of past subduction since the Cretaceous. Results from correlation analysis show that the slab mass-flux in the lower mantle did not conform to a steady-state nature but exhibited time-dependent behavior.

Cadek, O.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of wind perturbation activity for the NSTS launches

A method for statistical analysis of wind perturbation activity is proposed for application in NSTS prelaunch assessment of the wind environment. Methods for comparing day-of-launch wind perturbation standard deviations with historical data at the launch site are described. A statistical model based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution is developed for the largest vector and component perturbations in a wind profile as a function of high-pass filter cutoff wavelength. Application of the model is proposed for assessing extreme perturbations within prelaunch sequential Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, Stanley I.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning method for enforcing variable independence in background estimation with LHC data: ABCDisCoTEC

A novel solution is presented for the problem of estimating the backgrounds of a signal search using observed data while simultaneously maximizing the sensitivity of the search to the signal. The 'ABCD method' provides a reliable framework for background estimation by partitioning events into one signal-enhanced region (A) and three background-enhanced control regions (B, C, and D) via two smoothly varying, statistically independent variables. In practice, even slight correlations between the two variables can significantly undermine the method's performance. Thus, choosing appropriate variables by hand can present a formidable challenge, especially when background and signal differ only subtly. To address this issue, the ABCD with distance correlation (ABCDisCo) method was developed to construct two learned variables via a neural network trained to provide strong signal-background discrimination with small values of the distance correlation (DisCo) measure between the two learned variables. However, relying solely on minimizing the DisCo can result in learned variables that may not have distributions of background events that are smoothly varying and localized at extreme values, as necessary for the validity of the background estimation. The ABCDisCo training enhanced with closure (ABCDisCoTEC) method is introduced to solve this issue by directly minimizing the nonclosure, expressed as a dedicated differentiable loss term. This extended method is applied to a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the CMS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Additionally, given the complexity of the minimization problem with constraints on multiple loss terms, the modified differential method of multipliers is applied and shown to greatly improve the stability and robustness of the ABCDisCoTEC method, compared to grid search hyperparameter optimization procedures.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanisms of Projected Changes in Thunderstorm Downburst Environments Across the United States

Responses of downdraft convective available potential energy (DCAPE) to global warming were investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) under a high‐emission scenario through the year 2100. DCAPE is projected to increase by 5%–12% on average in most areas, independently of wind shear. A diagnostic of downdraft buoyancy is introduced to understand the mechanisms of DCAPE responses. Much of the increase in mean DCAPE is temperature‐driven, with additional contributions from changes in relative humidity and downdraft origin heights. However, extreme values increase at much faster rates than can be explained by local warming. In winter, the latitude of significant DCAPE and CAPE shifts poleward by more than 5° due to larger changes in downburst environments within midlatitude cyclones. The projected increase in cold‐season extremes indicates an interaction between weather events and warming trends that increases the potential for downbursts and straight‐line winds in winter.

Williams, Ian N. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2024

Four Years of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Retrievals Using COSMIC-2 Satellite Data

This work aimed to study the atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) from COSMIC-2 refractivity data, endeavoring to refine existing ABLH detection algorithms and scrutinize the resulting spatial and seasonal distributions. Through validation analyses involving different ground-based methodologies (involving data from lidar, ceilometer, microwave radiometers, and radiosondes), the optimal ABLH determination relied on identifying the lowest refractivity gradient negative peak with a magnitude at least $τ$% times the minimum refractivity gradient magnitude, where $τ$ is a fitting parameter representing the minimum peak strength relative to the absolute minimum refractivity gradient. Different $τ$ values were derived accounting for the moment of the day (daytime, nighttime, or sunrise/sunset) and the underlying surface (land or sea). Results show discernible relations between ABLH and various features, notably, the land cover and latitude. On average, ABLH is higher over oceans (≈1.5 km), but extreme values (maximums > 2.5 km, and minimums < 1 km) are reached over intertropical lands. Variability is generally subtle over oceans, whereas seasonality and daily evolution are pronounced over continents, with higher ABLHs during daytime and local wintertime (summertime) in intertropical (middle) latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over Australia.

AERONET↗

DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗

NASA NTRS1994

Kinetic and thermodynamic properties of a convecting plasma in a two-dimensional dipole field

Charged particle guiding center motion is considered in the magnetic field of a two-dimensional ('line') dipole on which is superimposed a small, static, perpendicular electric field. The parallel equation of motion is that of a simple harmonic oscillator for cos theta, the cosine of magnetic colatitude theta. Equations for the perpendicular electric and magnetic drifts are derived as well as their bounce-averaged forms. The latter are solved to yield a bounce-averaged guiding center trajectory, which is the same as that obtained from conversation of magnetic moment mu, longitudinal invariant J, and total (kinetic plus electrostatic) energy K. The algebraic simplicity of the trajectory equations is also manifest in the forms of the invariants. An interesting result is that guiding centers drift in such a way that they preserve the values of their equatorial pitch angles and (equivalently) mirror latitudes. The most general Maxwellian form of the equilibrium one-particle distribution function f is constructed from the invariants, and spatially varying density and pressure moments, parallel and perpendicular to the magnetic field, are identified. Much of the paper deals with the more restricted problem in which f is specified as a bi-Maxwellian over a straight line of finite length in the equatorial plane of the dipole and perpendicular to field lines. This might be thought of as specifying a cross-tail ion injection source; our formalism then describes the subsequent spatial development. The distribution away from the source is a scaled bi-Maxwellian but one that is cut off at large and small kinetic energies, which depend on position. Density and pressure components are reduced from the values they would have if the total content of individual flux tubes convected intact. The equatorial and meridional variations of density and pressure components are examined and compared systematically for the isotropic and highly anisotropic situations. There appears to be little qualitative difference due to anisotropy. An anisotropy measure is defined, and its spatial variation determined as a signature of possible MHD instability. Extreme values are found, larger than at the source, but the plasma beta in such regions is probably so low as to render the effect inconsequential energetically. Finally, the possible consequence of 'nonadia- batic' pressure profiles on electrostatic interchanges is considered, and a boundary delineating stabilizing and destabilizing regions determined.

Huang, T. S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Fe/Mn in olivine of carbonaceous meteorites

Olivines in primitive meteorites show a range of Fe/Mn both within one grain and among grains suggesting that they have recorded changing conditions during or after growth. Because olivine should be an early forming phase, Fe/Mn is used here to infer these earliest conditions. Initial Fe/Mn in cores of isolated, euhedral forsterite in both C2 and C3 meteorites ranges from 25 to 35 but differs at grain edge. Murchison (C2) forsterites show Fe/Mn approaching 1.0 at the grain edge while Ornans Fe/Mn is near 60 at grain edge. These values are lower than the matrix Fe/Mn for both meteorites and the distinct difference in zoning profile indicates different processes operating during and after grain growth. The Fe/Mn of bulk samples from a particular source such as the Moon is nearly constant. Individual samples show variation suggesting that there is some fractionation of Mn from Fe. Minerals have their individual ranges of Fe/Mn which has been used to recognize different types of olivine within one meteorite. Extreme values of Fe/Mn below 1.0 occur in forsterite from some IDP's, UOC matrix, and C1 meteorites. There are apparently no detailed studies of Fe/Mn variation within single olivine grains. Forsterite grains in C2 and C3 carbonaceous chondrites show complex zoning, and the nearly pure forsterites (Fo greater than approximately 99.5) have high levels of some minor elements including Ti, Al, V, and Sc. There is disagreement on the original source of these grains and both chondrule and vapor growth have been proposed. In addition, there is clear evidence that diffusion has affected the outer margins but in some cases the whole grain. Within the cores, the FeO range is limited, and if growing under constant conditions, the Fe/Mn should be near constant as there is little fractionation of Mn from Fe by forsterite. Additionally, there are apparently no co-crystallizing phases as evidenced by a lack of common inclusions in the forsterites. These observations are now followed by analyses of isolated olivine grains in C2 and C3 meteorites.

Steele, Ian M.↗

NASA NTRS2017

NuSTAR Observations of WISE J1036+0449, A Galaxy at Z Approx. 1 Obscured by Hot Dust

Hot dust-obscured galaxies (hot DOGs), selected from Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer's all-sky infrared survey, host some of the most powerful active galactic nuclei known and may represent an important stage in the evolution of galaxies. Most known hot DOGs are located at z > 1.5, due in part to a strong bias against identifying them at lower redshift related to the selection criteria. We present a new selection method that identifies 153 hot DOG candidates at z approx. 1, where they are significantly brighter and easier to study. We validate this approach by measuring a redshift z = 1.009 and finding a spectral energy distribution similar to that of higher-redshift hot DOGs for one of these objects, WISE J1036+0449 (L(BOL) approx. = 8 x 10(exp 46) erg/s). We find evidence of a broadened component in Mg II, which would imply a black hole mass of M(BH) approx. = 2 x 10(exp 8) Stellar Mass and an Eddington ratio of lambda(Edd) approx. = 2.7. WISE J1036+0449 is the first hot DOG detected by the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array, and observations show that the source is heavily obscured, with a column density of N(H) approx. = (2-15) x 10(exp 23)/sq cm. The source has an intrinsic 2-10 keV luminosity of approx. 6 x 10(exp 44) erg/s, a value significantly lower than that expected from the mid-infrared X-ray correlation. We also find that other hot DOGs observed by X-ray facilities show a similar deficiency of X-ray flux. We discuss the origin of the X-ray weakness and the absorption properties of hot DOGs. Hot DOGs at z < or approx. 1 could be excellent laboratories to probe the characteristics of the accretion flow and of the X-ray emitting plasma at extreme values of the Eddington ratio.

galaxies↗

NASA NTRS1972

Jimsphere wind and turbulence exceedance statistic

Exceedance statistics of winds and gusts observed over Cape Kennedy with Jimsphere balloon sensors are described. Gust profiles containing positive and negative departures, from smoothed profiles, in the wavelength ranges 100-2500, 100-1900, 100-860, and 100-460 meters were computed from 1578 profiles with four 41 weight digital high pass filters. Extreme values of the square root of gust speed are normally distributed. Monthly and annual exceedance probability distributions of normalized rms gust speeds in three altitude bands (2-7, 6-11, and 9-14 km) are log-normal. The rms gust speeds are largest in the 100-2500 wavelength band between 9 and 14 km in late winter and early spring. A study of monthly and annual exceedance probabilities and the number of occurrences per kilometer of level crossings with positive slope indicates significant variability with season, altitude, and filter configuration. A decile sampling scheme is tested and an optimum approach is suggested for drawing a relatively small random sample that represents the characteristic extreme wind speeds and shears of a large parent population of Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, S. I.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence-Resolving Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020): Insights Into Extreme Winds and Eyewall Turbulence

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. In this work, we investigate the structure of mean winds and turbulence near the surface ( z < 300 m) that occurred during Hurricane Laura in 2020 on the US Gulf Coast. To this end, we perform turbulence-resolving simulations (..delta..x = 33.33 m) that encompass the entire eyewall of Hurricane Laura by introducing a novel method that we will refer to as Moving-Mesoscale to Static-LES Integrated Coupling (MOSAIC). The simulation results are validated against surface, boundary-layer, and mid-tropospheric observations. Our analysis of the extreme wind conditions near the surface indicates that the mean wind and turbulence profiles vary greatly at and near the eyewall, resulting in extreme values of mean wind speed (U > 50 m * s-1) and turbulence kinetic energy (k ~ 50 m2 * s-2) at altitudes above 50 m . To investigate in detail the nature of turbulence within the eyewall of the storm, we conduct higher-resolution simulations (..delta..x = 11.11 m) of a portion of the hurricane. We provide a comprehensive statistical description of turbulence in the eyewall region, highlighting the need to employ ..delta..x ~ 10 m grid spacing to capture the integral length-scales near the surface, second- and higher-order central moments (i.e., skewness and kurtosis), and spectral coherence in the flow accurately. These numerical simulations provide the most detailed description of mean winds and turbulent conditions within the eyewall of a historical tropical cyclone to date, illustrating how high-resolution simulations can enhance limited turbulence measurements in hurricanes and giving insight into the extreme conditions threatening offshore and coastal infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Clayson, Carol Anne↗

NASA NTRS1999

AKN 564: An Unusual Component in the X-ray Spectra of NLSy1 Galaxies

We present an ASCA observation of the narrow-line Seyfert l (NLSyl) Arakelian 564. The X-ray light curve shows rapid variability, but no evidence for energy-dependence to these variations, within the 0.6 - 10 keV bandpass. A strong (EW approximately 70 eV) spectral feature is observed close to 1 keV. A similar feature has been observed in TON S180, another member of the NLSyl class of objects, but has not been observed in broad-line Seyfert galaxies. The feature energy suggests a large contribution from Fe L-shell lines but its intensity is difficult to explain in terms of emission and/or absorption from photoionized gas. The models which predict most emission at 1 keV are characterized by extreme values of column density, Fe abundance and ionization parameter. Models based on gas in thermal equilibrium with kT approximately l keV provide an alternative parameterization of the soft spectrum. The latter may be interpreted as the hot intercloud medium, undergoing rapid cooling and producing strong Fe L-shell recombination lines. In all cases the physical conditions are rather different from those observed in broad-line Seyferts. The hard X-ray spectrum shows a broad and asymmetric Fe K(alpha) line of large equivalent width (approximately 550 eV) suggestive of significant emission from the inner accretion disk. The profile can be explained by a neutral disk viewed at approximately 60 deg to the line-of-sight, contrary to the hypothesis that NLSyls are viewed pole-on. The large EW of this line, the strong 1 keV emission and the strong optical Fe emission lines all suggest an extreme Fe abundance in this and perhaps other NLSyls.

Turner, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Cabauw Experimental Results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W/m in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (+/- 10 W/sq m). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of 30 W/sq m and 25 W/sq m, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W/m for sensible beat flux and 10 W/m for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to ground water, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Chen, Tian Hong↗