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DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Fault Zone Resonance Modes Recorded by a Dense Seismic Array Across the San Jacinto Fault Zone at Blackburn Saddle

We present observations and modeling of spatial eigen-functions of resonating waves within fault zone waveguide, using data recorded on a dense seismic array across the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) in southern California. The array consists of 5-Hz geophones that cross the SJFZ with ~10-30 m spacing at the Blackburn Saddle near the Hemet Stepover. Wavefield snapshots after the S wave arrival are consistent for more than 50 near-fault events, suggesting that this pattern is controlled by the fault zone structure rather than source properties. Data from example event with high signal to noise ratio shows three main frequency peaks at ~1.3 Hz, ~2.0 Hz, and ~2.8 Hz in the amplitude spectra of resonance waves averaged over stations near the fault. The data are modeled with analytical expressions for eigen-functions of resonance waves in a low-velocity layer (fault zone) between two quarter-spaces. Using a grid search-based method, we investigate the possible width of the waveguide, location within the array, and shear wave velocities of the media that fit well the resonance signal at ~1.3 Hz. The results indicate a ~300 m wide damaged fault zone layer with ~65% S wave velocity reduction compared to the host rock. The SW edge of the low-velocity zone is near the mapped fault surface trace, indicating that the damage zone is asymmetrically located at the regionally faster NE crustal block. The imaging resolution of the fault zone structure can be improved by modeling fault zone resonance modes and trapped waves together.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Identification of Faults Susceptible to Induced Seismicity (Final Report)

Central to the work documented in this report is the capability of geocellular models to represent the geologic conceptual model updated with fault identification from machine learning and joint inversion modeling of microseismic data measured and recorded as a consequence of CO 2 injection at a field demonstration site: the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). This work required seven unique geocellular models with 100s of simulated variations to gain a very high degree of confidence in the identification of geologic features present that contributed to induced microseismicity at IBDP. All forward modeling: pressure modeling, stress modeling, and seismic modeling used the same geologic conceptual model and representations of that model at different scales. The pressure modeling and poroelastic modeling created “snapshots” of pore pressure and stress field changes at different times during CO 2 injection, in which microseismic events were clustered (in time). These pressure and stress snapshots, within the framework and architecture of the geologic conceptual model via the geocellular model, informed the single fault and fault network models to ascertain the likelihood of fault movement (seismic or aseismic). The outcomes of the pressure, stress, and fault/fault network (seismic) modeling confirmed that the faults in the geologic conceptual model in Task 2 were likely the source of microseismic events measured at IBDP and acted as conduits for pressure to be transmitted from the injection interval into the Precambrian crystalline basement rock. This closely coordinated and integrated unique modeling approach was conducted to prove the viability of our proposed workflow 1) to better resolve crystalline basement faults, 2) detect subseismic faults that could be activated by injection, 3) increase the certainty in fault detection and their susceptibility to release seismic energy, and 4) understand transmission of pressure vertically from the well to the underlying fractured crystalline basement. The proposed methodology was effective in guiding an iterative process of calibrating forward modeling results based on similar geocellular models while honoring the geologic conceptual model (i.e., characterization data and knowledge of regional geology); this led to higher level of certainty in the identification of fault/faults zones to control seismicity and transmission of pressure to the regions of recorded and located injection induced seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1977

Computer simulation of earthquakes

In a computer simulation study of earthquakes a seismically active strike slip fault is represented by coupled mechanical blocks which are driven by a moving plate and which slide on a friction surface. Elastic forces and time independent friction are used to generate main shock events, while viscoelastic forces and time dependent friction add aftershock features. The study reveals that the size, length, and time and place of event occurrence are strongly influenced by the magnitude and degree of homogeneity in the elastic, viscous, and friction parameters of the fault region. For example, periodically reoccurring similar events are observed in simulations with near-homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas seismic gaps are a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The study also reveals correlations between strain energy release and fault length and average displacement and between main shock and aftershock displacements.

Cohen, S. C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sequences of seismic and aseismic slip on bimaterial faults show dominant rupture asymmetry and potential for elevated seismic hazard

Here we perform numerical simulations of sequences of earthquake and aseismic slip on planar rate and state faults separating dissimilar material within the 2-D plane strain approximation. We resolve all stages of the earthquake cycle from aseismic slip to fast ruptures while incorporating full inertia effects during seismic event propagation. We show that bimaterial coupling results in favorable nucleation site and subsequent asymmetric rupture propagation. We demonstrate that increasing the material contrast enhances this asymmetry leading to higher slip rates and normal stress drops in the preferred rupture propagation direction. The normal stress drop, induced by the bimaterial effect, leads to strong dynamic weakening of the fault and may destabilize the creeping region on a heterogeneous rate and state fault, resulting in extended rupture propagation. Such rupture penetration into creeping patches may lead to more frequent opening of earthquake gates, causing increased seismic hazard. Furthermore, bimaterial coupling may lead to irregular seismicity pattern in terms of event length, peak slip rates, and hypocenter location, depending on the properties of the creeping patches bordering the seismogenically active part of the fault. Our results highlight robust characteristics of bimaterial interfaces that persist over long sequence of events and suggest the need for further exploration of the role of material contrast in earthquake physics and models of seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Induced microseismicity and tremor signatures illuminate different slip behaviours in a natural shale fault reactivated by a fluid pressure stimulation (Mont Terri)

SUMMARY Fault slip induced by fluid perturbation in shale formations may only lead to a sparse seismicity. However, fault slip may strongly impact the integrity of shale formations that serve as caprocks for geological reservoirs holding buoyant fluids such as CO2, natural gas or hydrogen. A better understanding of the fluid reactivation processes of fault and the seismic triggering process is therefore critical for reservoir monitoring and fault stability. Here we analyse the seismic responses of a shale fault exposed to fluid pressurization during an in situ field-scale injection experiment at ∼340 m depth in the Mont Terri underground research laboratory (Switzerland). Two main types of seismic signals are observed as the fault was activated and started to slowly slip. After an aseismic phase, we observed tremor signatures and an increase in noise amplitude, which were directly associated with the slowly propagating fault slip in response to fluid injection. These signatures were later followed by micro-earthquakes that seem to occur further away from the fluid-pressurized area. We interpret these micro-earthquakes to be triggered by stress perturbations from the main slip growth. These two classes of seismic responses therefore highlight two different processes. Tremors seem to be a more direct observation for the fluid-induced slip propagation than micro-earthquakes. Even hidden in the noise, they precede earthquake failures, thus providing a useful tool for monitoring fluid leakage activated by slow deformation on low permeable shale faults, with applications for sealing integrity of caprocks.

De Barros, Louis (ORCID:0000000255419162)↗

NASA NTRS1991

Martian seismicity through time from surface faulting

An objective of future Mars missions involves emplacing a seismic network on Mars to determine the internal structure of the planet. An argument based on the relative geologic histories of the terrestrial planets suggests that Mars should be seismically more active than the Moon, but less active than the Earth. The seismicity is estimated which is expected on Mars through time from slip on faults visible on the planets surface. These estimates of martian seismicity must be considered a lower limit as only structures produced by shear faulting visible at the surface today are included (i.e., no provision is made for buried structures or non-shear structures); in addition, the estimate does not include seismic events that do not produce surface displacement (e.g., activity associated with hidden faults, deep lithospheric processes or volcanism) or events produced by tidal triggering or meteorite impacts. Calibration of these estimates suggests that Mars may be many times more seismically active than the Moon.

Golombek, M. P.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing the evolution of fault properties during the seismic cycle with deep learning

We use seismic waves that pass through the hypocentral region of the 2016 M6.5 Norcia earthquake together with Deep Learning (DL) to distinguish between foreshocks, aftershocks and time-to-failure (TTF). Binary and N-class models defined by TTF correctly identify seismograms in test with > 90% accuracy. We use raw seismic records as input to a 7 layer CNN model to perform the classification. Here we show that DL models successfully distinguish seismic waves pre/post mainshock in accord with lab and theoretical expectations of progressive changes in crack density prior to abrupt change at failure and gradual postseismic recovery. Performance is lower for band-pass filtered seismograms (below 10 Hz) suggesting that DL models learn from the evolution of subtle changes in elastic wave attenuation. Tests to verify that our results indeed provide a proxy for fault properties included DL models trained with the wrong mainshock time and those using seismic waves far from the Norcia mainshock; both show degraded performance. Our results demonstrate that DL models have the potential to track the evolution of fault zone properties during the seismic cycle. If this result is generalizable it could improve earthquake early warning and seismic hazard analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The effect of shear strain and shear localization on fault healing

The seismic cycle of repeated earthquake failure requires that faults regain frictional strength during the interseismic phase, when the fault is locked or undergoing quasi-static creep. Fault healing plays a central role in determining earthquake stress drop, recurrence interval, elastic radiation frequency and other source parameters. In particular, the longer a fault remains quasi-stationary, the stronger it becomes and the larger the potential stress drop can be for the next event. Here, we address the role of shear strain and strain localization on fault healing and healing rate. We performed slide-hold-slide friction experiments on quartz gouge in the double-direct shear configuration for shear strain up to 25 and hold times from 10 to 1000 s. The results show that both healing and healing rate increase nonlinearly with increasing shear strain. Frictional healing scales with volumetric strain within the laboratory fault zone. Using the volumetric strain upon reshear as a proxy for strain localization, we demonstrate that the capacity of a fault to heal is directly proportional to shear bandwidth and degree of strain localization. The more the deformation is localized, the higher are the healing and healing rate, and thus, the fault strength. Our data provide a framework for understanding variations in fault strength over the seismic cycle and the role of brecciation and strain localization on spatiotemporal variations in fault strength.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Some aspects of active tectonism in Alaska as seen on ERTS-1

ERTS-1 imagery is proving to be exceptionally useful in delineating structural features in Alaska which have never been recognized on the ground. Previously unmapped features such as seismically active faults and major structural lineaments are especially evident. Among the more significant results of this investigation is the discovery of an active strand of the Denali fault. The new fault has a history of scattered seismicity and was the scene of a magnitude 4.8 earthquake on October 1, 1972. Perhaps of greater significance is the disclosure of a large scale conjugate fracture system north of the Alaska Range. This fracture system appears to result from compressive stress radiating outward from around the outside of the great bend of the Alaska Range at Mt. McKinley.

Gedney, L. D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transient evolution of permeability and friction in a slowly slipping fault activated by fluid pressurization

The mechanisms of permeability and friction evolution in a natural fault are investigated in situ. During three fluid injection experiments at different places in a fault zone, we measured simultaneously the fluid pressure, fault displacements and seismic activity. Changes in fault permeability and friction are then estimated concurrently. Results show that fault permeability increases up to 1.58 order of magnitude as a result of reducing effective normal stress and cumulative dilatant slip, and 19-to-60.8% of the enhancement occurs without seismic emissions. When modeling the fault displacement, we found that a rate-and-state friction and a permeability dependent on both slip and slip velocity together reasonably fit the fault-parallel and fault-normal displacements. This leads to the conclusion that the transient evolution of fault permeability and friction caused by a pressure perturbation exerts a potentially dominant control on fault stability during fluid flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatio-Temporal Clustering of Seismicity Enabled by Off-Fault Plasticity

While significant progress has been made in understanding earthquake source processes in linear elastic domains, the effect of more realistic rheologies including plasticity is poorly understood. Here, in this work, we simulate the sequence of earthquake and aseismic slip of a 2D antiplane rate-and-state fault embedded in a full-space elastic-plastic bulk. We show that off-fault plasticity may lead to partial ruptures as well as temporal clustering of seismic events. Furthermore, the interaction of fault slip and off-fault plasticity results in pockets of slip deficit. While the energy dissipated through plastic deformation remains a small fraction of the total energy budget, its impact on the source characteristics is disproportionally large through the redistribution of stresses and viscous relaxation. Our results suggest a new mechanism of dynamic heterogeneity in earthquake physics that may have important implications on earthquake size distribution and energy budget.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Frequency–Magnitude Statistics of Laboratory Foreshocks Vary With Shear Velocity, Fault Slip Rate, and Shear Stress

Understanding the nucleation phase of earthquakes is key for advancing earthquake hazard assessment and improving earthquake early warning systems. However, little progress has been made in this area due to a poor understanding of nucleation processes and incomplete seismic and fault zone measurements. The ability to integrate measured fault zone properties with seismic data could significantly improve our understanding of how earthquakes begin and whether there are systematic variations in seismic properties preceding failure. In this work, we use high-resolution laboratory measurements of fault zone properties along with acoustic emission data to document temporal variations of foreshock properties. Our data show that foreshock size increases with shear stress, loading rate, and fault slip rate. We propose that the preseismic fault slip rate and fault zone thickness (i.e., porosity) work in concert to modulate foreshock properties.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Rupture Jumping and Seismic Complexity in Models of Earthquake Cycles for Fault Stepovers with Off-Fault Plasticity

ABSTRACT Fault stepovers are prime examples of geometric complexity in natural fault zones that may affect seismic hazard by determining whether an earthquake rupture continues propagating or abruptly stops. However, the long-term pattern of seismicity near-fault stepovers and underlying mechanisms of rupture jumping in the context of earthquake cycles are rarely studied. Leveraging a hybrid numerical scheme combining the finite element and the spectral boundary integral methods, FEBE, we carry out fully dynamic simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip for both compressive and tensile stepovers with off-fault plasticity. We consider a rate-and-state friction law for the fault friction and pressure-sensitive Drucker–Prager plasticity for the off-fault bulk response. We observe that the accumulation of plastic deformation, an indication of off-fault damage, is significantly different in the two cases, with more plastic deformation projected in the overlapping region for the tensile stepover. The seismic pattern for a tensile stepover is more complex than for a compressive stepover, and incorporating plasticity also increases complexity, relative to the elastic case. A tensile stepover with off-fault plasticity shows rupture segmentation, temporal clustering, and frequent rupture jumping from one fault to another. These results shed light on possible mechanisms of rupture jumping in fault stepovers as well as the long-term evolution of the fault zone.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS1976

Tectonic structure of Alaska as evidenced by ERTS imagery and ongoing seismicity

The author has identified the following significant results. At least three seismically active faults were identified which had not been previously mapped. One of these passes near the proposed site of a hydroelectric project on the Susitna River. Evidence of the state's past deformational history was obtained, indicating that right lateral offset has occurred sequentially from the northern part of the state to the southern. An apparent fault passes near Fairbanks, and is presumably the source of much seismic activity in the area.

Gedney, L. D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generation of random geological models using multi-randomization for machine learning

Generating high-fidelity geological models is essential for advancing machine learning (ML) methods in automated seismic interpretation. For instance, seismic images paired with corresponding fault labels are foundational for ML-based fault detection from seismic migration sections. While several open-access datasets of random geological models exist, open-source tools specifically designed to produce large volumes of such models for ML applications remain scarce. To address this gap, we present RGM (Random Geological Model), an open-source software package for efficiently generating 2D and 3D synthetic geological models tailored for ML workflows. RGM supports the creation of diverse model components, including medium property distributions (P-/S-wave velocities and density), seismic reflectivity images (i.e., synthetic migration sections), relative geological time, and discrete fault attributes such as probability, dip, strike, rake, and displacement. It also accommodates the creation of complex geological features such as salt bodies and unconformities. The model generation algorithm employs a multi-randomization strategy, yielding an effectively infinite-dimensional model space that encompasses a wide range of geological scenarios and associated seismic features. Furthermore, RGM incorporates a method to generate synthetic elastic migration images using analytical elastic reflection coefficients combined with frequency-dependent scaling. This functionality enables the creation of training datasets for ML models that leverage elastic seismic images. RGM is implemented in modern object-oriented Fortran, allowing users to flexibly control statistical parameters governing model variability. We demonstrate the capability, performance, and geological realism of the package through comprehensive 2D and 3D examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Creep fronts and complexity in laboratory earthquake sequences illuminate delayed earthquake triggering

Earthquakes occur in clusters or sequences that arise from complex triggering mechanisms, but direct measurement of the slow subsurface slip responsible for delayed triggering is rarely possible. We investigate the origins of complexity and its relationship to heterogeneity using an experimental fault with two dominant seismic asperities. The fault is composed of quartz powder, a material common to natural faults, sandwiched between 760 mm long polymer blocks that deform the way 10 meters of rock would behave. We observe periodic repeating earthquakes that transition into aperiodic and complex sequences of fast and slow events. Neighboring earthquakes communicate via migrating slow slip, which resembles creep fronts observed in numerical simulations and on tectonic faults. Utilizing both local stress measurements and numerical simulations, we observe that the speed and strength of creep fronts are highly sensitive to fault stress levels left behind by previous earthquakes, and may serve as on-fault stress meters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automatic Time Step Control to Resolve Hydromechanically Driven Fault Reactivation, Spontaneous Nucleation, and Seismic Arrest

Abstract A physical understanding of the progression from flow‐driven (quasi‐static) poromechanical deformation to dynamic fault rupture is critical to the resilient operations of several engineering systems. These processes are bridged by a progression from fault reactivation to the spontaneous nucleation of unstable sliding. Toward addressing this challenge, novel automatic time step size control methods are developed to enable accurate and efficient simulation of these dynamics and transitions from the first principles. The controllers combine local models for discretization error and Coulomb failure conditions to automatically adjust the time step size across several orders of magnitude. The methods do not require additional empirical or theoretical input and can resolve the pre‐rupture, interseismic, and seismic periods to the allowed accuracy. The computational results reveal that the proposed methods automatically capture the onset of reactivation and nucleation for homogeneous and heterogeneous fields. Hydrodynamic and structural heterogeneity lead to disparate critical nucleation sizes compared to those predicted by theory. The results highlight its potential in predicting induced seismicity in realistic subsurface engineering systems and at practical scales.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS2010

Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) Model - An Unified Concept for Earthquake Precursors Validation

The paper presents a conception of complex multidisciplinary approach to the problem of clarification the nature of short-term earthquake precursors observed in atmosphere, atmospheric electricity and in ionosphere and magnetosphere. Our approach is based on the most fundamental principles of tectonics giving understanding that earthquake is an ultimate result of relative movement of tectonic plates and blocks of different sizes. Different kind of gases: methane, helium, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide leaking from the crust can serve as carrier gases for radon including underwater seismically active faults. Radon action on atmospheric gases is similar to the cosmic rays effects in upper layers of atmosphere: it is the air ionization and formation by ions the nucleus of water condensation. Condensation of water vapor is accompanied by the latent heat exhalation is the main cause for observing atmospheric thermal anomalies. Formation of large ion clusters changes the conductivity of boundary layer of atmosphere and parameters of the global electric circuit over the active tectonic faults. Variations of atmospheric electricity are the main source of ionospheric anomalies over seismically active areas. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model can explain most of these events as a synergy between different ground surface, atmosphere and ionosphere processes and anomalous variations which are usually named as short-term earthquake precursors. A newly developed approach of Interdisciplinary Space-Terrestrial Framework (ISTF) can provide also a verification of these precursory processes in seismically active regions. The main outcome of this paper is the unified concept for systematic validation of different types of earthquake precursors united by physical basis in one common theory.

Pulinets, S.↗